tv Fast Money CNBC February 8, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
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fill, sort of, you know, using up whatever dry powder they have sitting around. >> yeah, the euro stock, and the ftse and s&p 500 up all over 5% for the month of february so far. the s&p up 0.7% today. four record closes that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. tonight's trader lineup and tonight on "fast" another record-breaker on wall street offering major averagesed a all-time highs as the reopening rally moves on plus, target hits the bull's eye, the retailer jumping more than 2.5% thanks to some big news on stretchy pants you heard that right we'll explain, and later game on shares of taking to interactive. we'll bring you the big numbers from the quarter but we start with a bitcoin bombshell and the return of the "fast money"
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bitcoin bug. yes, it's back tesla announcing today it bought $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency tesla saying it made the purchase for the ability to further maximize returns on our cash the news sending tesla shares higher by more than a percent and bitcoin to its highest level on record. tonight we start the show with a simple question why. why should tesla go up on this news why should bitcoin go up by 14.5% on this news guy, what do you say >> well, you've seen it before we saw with microstrategies, i mean, that was i think $175 stock prior to the offering that they did michael sailer being the ceo there and the stock closed over 1,000 today so the why answer is because that's what the market is geeked up for and that's how the market has been trading. seen a number of different securities so to a certain extent it makes sense so as long as bitcoin does the grind higher
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those stocks go up, we will not exponentially, well maybe to a magnifiable 1.5% times works on the downside as well. i have no idea what bitcoin is going to do but if we do the back and forth to 20,000 microstrategies $1,000, probably a $600 stock and maybe you see similar in tesla my biggest problem is not the fact that the companies are doing, it publicly traded companies with board approval and shareholder approval should be doing anything they want and within the confines of the law it's sort of this gamification, elon musk putting on his twitter account and bitcoin emoji, whatever, the young ones say and i'm not trying to be get off my lawn, okay, boomer stuff but there's a danger associated with that he's a ceo of one of the ten largest companies in the world i think with that heavy is the head that wears the crown, and i think he's got to think more of those things can't just be willy-nilly in my opinion. >> that's an interesting point to make but elon musk had demonstrated his, you know, propensity for bitcoin back in
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december, so arguably he was driving up the price of bitcoin as the company was buying it so not exactly, you know, helping his own company in terms of establishing that $1.5 billion purchase in terms of participating to the upside, it's more so participating to the downside, care when i heard this news i first reached out to you because you probe the accounting of this it's very interesting. tesla is not necessarily a bitcoin proxy in the way it's accounting for this bitcoin purchase. >> no, it isn't, and the accounting of it says that you have to market it at the price you bought it unless it trades down and then have you to market it at that price but i don't think share holdlers care about that i think they just like the idea of it. i don't know when he bought it it's sort of fascinating to me, but i do think it's actually a really big deal. the when we talked not that long ago about the idea of institutional investors finally feeling like they can be comfortable having some exposure
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to cryptocurrencies, to bitcoin, that was sort of a big move and there's a lot to go, and i think we were at the very beginning of that here you have s&p 500 companies with the cash on their balance sheets contemplating using some of that to buy bitcoin he also mentioned potentially gold and gold eat yefs in the tesla release, but that's kind of amazing to me as well, so we haven't even seen the institutional buying come through at all i don't know if every s&p 500 cfo will want to do this they have been conservative for a pretty long time buying gold wouldn't have seemed that crazy and yet i don't think very many of them did it so, i mean, i'm long so i'm glad it's trading up i do kind of think what could go wrong from here? i don't know,, maybe a tad proxy. >> the turn happened, i don't know, dan, eight months ago when it was sort rare to hear about a
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big firm coming in and all of a son it was poulter jones and blackrock and everybody and their brother buying bitcoin or investigate ability to buy bitcoin. >> yeah. you know, we have to give obviously b.k. a lot of credit here this was one of the bold -- one of the pillars of the bold case that he made years and years ago to us about institutional adoption, and so i don't think at the time we were talking about, you know, publicly traded corporates putting this on their balance sheets to diversify away from cash, but if you think about what's happened over the last few years and the narrative around the dollar and with interest rates and every time there's a hiccup in the economy and what central banks do globally, that's why we're here i guess and it's a validation of that, and i'll just make this one point, that you know, karen was talking about when elon musk maybe was buying it and what he was saying about it. i mean, maybe they ir board got smart about what they would do because at least they were telegraphing the direction in which they were going. you know, listen, this is a
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function, you know -- tesla having an $800 billion market cap and all of a sudden now having a balance sheet that looks like it's ready to party in crypto land is just a function of also where we are as far as monetary policy and what's coming on the fiscal side, that sort of thing, so to me $1.5 billion something that could be literally go to zero from 1.5 million to zero or when we have guests come on saying they have $200,000, $300,000, $400,000 or $500,000 price targets, maybe it's a rounding error and on the downside not that big of a deal. >> tim, what's your take on -- there's so many places to go in terms of implications. where do you want to start >> yeah. so, i mean, as it relates to whether corporate america is going to use 1% of their treasury cash towards this, what this means for bitcoin it's an extraordinary concept.
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i do think there's a lot of cover for corporates right now, even an inflation hedge, the dynamics of the digital world and certainly what the few companies that have really gotten out there early and even tesla made a point to say we actually want to give our customers the ability to pay bitcoin and yet in the filing they say this is really effectively about speculation so there's a lot of projections there are many projections we can make it is important to note. you have mentioned the 8% of the cash on the balance sheet. i footnote charlie grant that $1.5 bill john what tesla spent on r & d in 2020 it depends on how look at this this is an extraordinary amount of money for a company that trades six and a half times ford and gm combined, so it's not a surprise to me that elon musk has his pulse on what the masses want he's proven that he's proven to be very, very, you know, i'll call him on the front line of that, but i -- i
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think to say that this is where we go tomorrow in bitcoin, no, but every company that has done this has not been rewarded let not forgot about square. let's not forgot about mass mutual back in december so far this has been a victory lap for people who have done it. >> karen, i want to go back to you because to me there's a distinction between putting it on their balance sheet as a cash or cash equivalent and putting it in the category in which it did and square did as you pained out to me earlier today which is intangible assets. shouldn't we think about this differently in terms of the amount of quote, up quote risk that tesla is taking with its cash >> i think the risk is the same whether you call it an intangible asset or whether you call it, you know, current -- a current asset cash i think the risk is the same, but i come back again to i don't think -- i don't think investors certainly in tesla are going to look at how did the intangible asset move over the prior quarter when the next quarter comes out? i think they will just look at
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it now the correlation between bitcoin and tesla is tighter than it was, particularly to the upside. i think they will find it very tight to the upside and maybe less so to the downside which is, i don't know, that's kind of crazy to me but i think will trade that way. >> guy, i want to ask you a question i ask everybody questions right, that's my job, but particularly because you have been so volk al against what the fed has done and the impact to the dollar, and you had said before just now that you think all companies should do whatever the heck they want to do as long as the board permits it and the share hold remembers on board, et cetera, et cetera, but shouldn't companies be obligates to even look at bitcoin as a hedge against a weaker dollar given what the fed has done? i mean, wouldn't that just be responsible? >> yeah. 100% i think that's what a lot of these companies are doing without question, and i think this does, you know, began, i'm pretty vocal outspoken critic of
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the central banks and i think you're seeing this in realtime and by the way, all these headlines are not bullish for the u.s. dollar. effectively companies are fleeing the dollar for what they deem to be a safer and more valuable asset in the terms of bitcoin and the fact that you mention that as golden as well is fascinating to me i've seen the dollar bounce over the last couple of weeks i get it i think the rallied will be short lived and the trajectory for the dollar will be continued lower. you keep talking about that citi note a couple months ago, about a 20% decline in 2021, i think you'll be right. a decline in the u.s. dollar with interest rates going higher by the year, the ten-year traded up and will be correct, almost 1.2%, the highest we've seen in a while. i don't think that's particularly bullish and i think that speaks to something far greater than just bitcoin. >> what if more than s&p 500 companies did more than what elon musk was reporting? if tesla spent half of its cash
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on bitcoin, what if other companies followed suit? if you add up all the cash on the books in the entire s&p 500 that total is $1.6 trillion so if all the companies took zo% of their cash, round it up for easy math and they bought bitcoin with that 10%, that would be $160 billion bitcoin or roughly 20% of the cryptocurrencies entire market cap today, 20% what did -- what did the crypto move today 14.5% because what have elon musk did himself let's bring in our own crypto baller brian kell who joins us on the fast line b.k., why did bitcoin go higher on this news >> well, for exactly the reason that you just mentioned. i think everybody else on the market did that calculation and said there's going to be some percentage of public companies that add bitcoin to their balance sheet and, you know, there's a multiplier effect when you put $1 in, you get multiple dollars in bitcoin price so the market calculate that had and
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said this isn't going to be the only up. this is just real the tip of the sphere. >> do you think the notion of tesla holding this because it's going to accept this as future payment, is that a driver, you're a bitcoin barely but, of course, you're a stock market guy, too is that a driver for tesla, and if you will, it was tweeted earlier something to the effect of there's all this bitcoin being held and there's very few places to spend it at this point so this is a smart business move for the future. >> yeah. i think the way i look i think about bitcoin is there's a life cycle to it, right, so we kind of start off in the feed stage and then to the growth equity. we're really in the commodity phase of it, and then with this tesla thing, hey, this is some place you could spend it that's going to shift it to the currency phase and that's when it will be less speculative and less volatile. it will probably be less interesting to a volatility junkie like b.k., but it's the mat rafgts market. so i think, you though, tesla
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doing that is really good. that being said i think that's multiple years away before you start seeing bitcoin being used as a transactional currency. >> b.k., it's tim. is the next wave of digital coins or tokens coming now again? i mean, i'm just curious about the broadening of the market very clear bitcoin is the standard, but could somebody else emerge to take some of that treasury market that we're talking about with corporate america or is it going to be all bitcoin? >> i know, bitcoin has a heck of a lead, tim, and this whole game is about network effect and the bigger you are, just the more value you've become so, you know, at this point i think bitcoin has a pretty good lock on it. that being said, i think of bitcoin as the reserve asset for a new digital economy so you think about something like ethereum that's being used to build a lot of decentralized fintech-type products that, you know, cme just
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launched futures on that today that's probably what's next here is people start looking and saying okay, wait a second i've got bitcoin as a reserve asset. what do i do with it i'll do something in de-fi or fintech and that's where all the others come in. >> b.k., big fan of your work. thanks fork on what about bitcoin as it relates to the size of gold it is a reserve currency that hasn't been so much of the argument, but how do you think about that should it be the same as gold? >> so there's lots of arguments that it could be even a multiple of gold because it's a lot more useful than gold this is really a currency of the internet, and if you do really have a digital economy grow, it's going to be a lot more valuable than gold that being said, i always shy away from these huge, huge price predictions just because we've got to get to the other steps and real kind of a benchmark is if you get -- if you're a new product and you can grab 20% of
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the market share, then you're considered on your way and you're a success and you're a disrupter. bitcoin is about $600 billion roughly in market cap today and gold is 10 trillion so we've got to get to 2 trillion in bitcoin before we can say that hey, that has real disrupted gold. for me as a speculator that's a massive upside and i would be really happy if bitcoin got 29 trillion. >> i bet you would b.k., good to sigh, thank you. >> brian kelly, b.k.cm so, tim, i'll going ton on your dollar, and i say that facetiously but in terms of the forces driving the dollar lower. if one is to believe that bitcoin is going to increasingly be adopted by institutions, by s&p 500 company, i mean, is that yet another force against the dollar >> i think the dollar is largely trading on its own fundamentals here i don't think the dollar is
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weaker on the back of whether there's been more focus on digital currencies or gold for that matter. the dollar on an exploding deficits on the dynamics of where i think policy is both monetary policy and fiscal policy really is playing it and, again, sometimes dollar dynamics are very technical and comparing the dollar to the euro people say no comparison but europe, you know, at least runs a current account surplus and there's dynamics here that just will have the currency trading based upon those fundamentals. it doesn't mean that the weakening dollar and the inflation dollar are talking about as a result of weaker dollar and i think things we're all very concerned about and were underestimated in markets right now are reasons why institutions and especially institutional investors say i have to own some of this because this is a hedge i think for financial assets. >> dan >> yeah, if you think that the u.s. treasury and the u.s. government is did going to let this get out of hand where little ratley corporates are
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going to start to replace dollars. >> what can they do? >> they can regulate the hell out it and that's what they can do and we've seen that already to some extent they are going to let the dollar fall away for being the reserve currency for the world right now we're in a bit of a euphoric state you think about what are we talking about here we're talking about bitcoin and these are two risk as that's the have gained more than $1 trillion combined in like the last six months, and it's all based on hope yourself, and i don't mean to hate on all of this all of these people making a ton of money on all of these things understand that there's got to be some sort of gravity that takes hold at some point and the two of them combined makes for i think a really difficult situation if they both start going down together, and the ripple effects that we will see across currency markets, financial markets and such could be really great. no one is talking about it right now. there are no more nay sayers in bitcoin so i would say have at
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it at 45,000 because you've taken out everybody who thinks it's a scam. >> yeah. it was approaching 45,000 as we speak. coming, a bull's eye for target. a billion reasons why working from home fashion is paying off for this retailer. that shares coming and shares of take two hitting after hours lows and a conference call outhay way and what they say abt e quarter. much more "fast money" right after this break before we talk about tax-smart investing, what's new? -well, audrey's expecting... -twins! grandparents! we want to put money aside for them, so...change in plans. alright, let's see what we can adjust. ♪♪ we'd be closer to the twins. change in plans. okay. mom, are you painting again? you could sell these. lemme guess, change in plans?
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welcome back to "fast money. shares of target jumping nearly 3% today the retail announcing its activewear all in motion, that's target's tenth inhouse brand to generate more than $1 billion just last year that's amazing they have 45 brands and ten of them have more than $1 billion in sales >> they have done an extraordinary job. that's great for them but real, i mean, the pandemic was -- they just made hay while the sun wasn't shining the pivot, to understated, was real extraordinary and they were the beneficiary obviously being able to open and they also just upped their game and even when we see the reopen trade are and i think we will and i hope we will soon, i think they are
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still poises to do well. some of that market sure that they took i think they are keeping, and they deserve to keep it. they have done a great job maybe the sentiment moves away when we're into the back open trade. i like it. it's not expensive at all. i'll said with them to give them the benefit of the doubt i like it here. >> stifel had an upgrade and a big reason is the investment in digital and how that has paid off during the pandemic. a lot of same-day pickup whether it's drip up or shift or what not and that's really showing through in digital sales >> the other side of the stifel call, they did have a $200 price target but did raise it is to five to karen's point, it is cheap. cheap to the broader market and still cheap to walmart and if
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you put a margot multiple on target, and you're talking about the $225 price target that stifel has and on the tap you can see it in on earnings on march 2nd, and i think you stayed long target. >> target or wall markets tim? >> walmart not because target's done wruch morning. the valuation and we rating potential there is great and some of the other initiatives giving walmart the ability to push around other people i think everyone else is falling. they are not target which is why target has done so well in some of these brands. >> dap, i'll expand the choices for you. target, walmart or have it at it, i want none of the above >> how about costco down 10%, mel, from its 52-week highs made a couple of months ago and thinking about the stimulus and the size that we might get here.
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costco is one that could push back up to the prior highs so have at it i'm not playing your game. >> touche. >> we're just getting started here oven money. here's what's coming next. >> markets at record highs airline stocks taking flight is this proof that the reopening trade is alive and well? or will rising interest rates take the wind out of the sails in this rally? jonathan golob of credit ssse ui joins us for answers we've got that and a lot more when "fast money" returns. blamin' losses on a laggy network. only one or two. verizon 5g ultra wideband is here, the fastest 5g in the world, with ultra... low... lag! stop blaming the network and start becoming the best gamers in the ga-- that escalated quickly. (sam) 5g ultra wideband, now in parts of many cities. this is 5g built right. only from verizon. wanna build a gaming business that breaks the internet?
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learn more at cvs.com. but i've seen centuries of this. with a companion that powers a digital world, traded with a touch. the gold standard, so to speak ;) the world's first fully autonomous vehicle is almost at the finish line what a ride! i invested in invesco qqq a fund that invests in the innovators of the nasdaq-100 like you become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq >> if you look at the math we'll put 220 million doses by the end of march and if j&j get authorized that will be another
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30 million or 40 million so think 250 million doses by the end of march and if a 60/40 split, 60% are first injections and 40% second injections which is probably about right, that's 150 million people that we'll vaccinate between december and the end of march >> that was former fda commissioner dr. scott gotlieb earlier today on cnbc and look what played how the in the market stocks hitting record highs with the dow, s&p and nasdaq closing at their highest level ever. the reopening rally playing how the in the airlines with green arrows across the board. tim, you flagged this sound bite earlier on our call and this would imply that maybe people are underestimating how quickly the economy could come back. >> well, again, if you look at the airlines and where we've been moving in the evolution of that trade just from balance sheet dynamics to recovery to actually, you know, where you start to look at some normalized earnings i think very, very
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interesting and, yeah, i think that was a captivating interview because it was fantastic for our world and the pent-up demand around some vacations. i like hilton grand vacations, hgb because this is a company, and you see this from other players as well. permanent savings out of covid that have been squeezed out of their business, and i think profitability that's already been guided to be much, much better than expected for 2021, so some of these trades have had a very big move but some of these trades have been waiting for these types of segments and dr. gotlieb i think gave us all a lot of reasons to be bullish >> guy, do you think this is what rates are telegraphing? >> absolutely. i think that's a huge part of it without question, and i think to me that's a big concern for the back half of this year if not before is that rates go higher than people expect, and, you know, i'm probably in a minority in that one but i absolutely think that's what's going on and the fact, again, getting back to the fed that they somehow think
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that they cannot control it but let it sort of sideways to slightly higher over the course of the years i think that's just foolish so i think that's what's going on and we play the game i think towards the end of last year what's the acronym for 2021 and i know i'm made fun of as i typically am by hope was minute. look at expedia. that's probably going to test the levels we saw in june of 2017 palantir has been a monster, home depot probably close to its all-time high and even oracle seems to be getting off the mat so there is hope out there and i think it will manifest itself in exactly what it said, rates going higher in a meaningful way over the next few months, mel. >> we've got records for the stock market so, dan, how do you think about this reopening trade. is it buy the rumor and sell the news kind of thick because then we could actually be in for a pullback >> i think tim made a really good point about the companies in these areas that really had balance sheet impairment and they had to sell really
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expensive equity and take a lot of loans in the airlines but look at disney today, up 4.5% today looking at a new all-time high and tell me if last year their sales were down 20% year over year and their earnings were down 60 something%. no real big balance sheets issued what is that discounting, so you have to be real careful and say, well, okay, they were actually discounting the fact that they are going to be back up and running with all of their business units and maybe, you know, i don't know, so i guess my point is like do airlines have a lot of ways to go yeah, but i suspect that there's going to be some consolidation and there's going to be a few more hits. i don't think they are going to recognize a lot of cost savings. if anything, it will be a lot more expensive even if we do have 100 million people or 150 million people vaccinated by the spring, the costs associated with runnage airline or hotel or a lot of other places will be around for a long time. >> reopenings coupled with a supercharged economy will boost
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stocks even if interest rates continue to move higher. jonathan golob is an equity strategist with credit suisse. good to see you. >> great to be here. >> you're also in the camp that the second half the year will be a big one for the economy. will it also be that for the stock market >> i don't know exactly what the infliction point is but between now and the beginning of the fourth quarter i just don't see anything but stocks being higher and the backdrop getting more and more favorable, and i think that this whole argument that rising interest rates are in some way a problem is just -- i just think it's going to prove to not be. if we just put out a research note which shows that on days where interest rates go up, stocks go up with it and cyclical stocks go up the most, on days when credit spreads go down that's good for markets. on days when inflation expectations rise, the market actually wants a bit more
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inflation and the day that's pretty clear on that so we don't see a threat there and we think that this opening is going to be really big. >> jonathan, all those points make for great sense and that hopes for a lot of people to just move in an orderly fashion and i know as an analyst as as someone who does a living as an economist, you'll have to forecast what can go wrong, so what can go wrong under this scenario >> first of all, obviously which everyone is talking about which is, you know, maybe as we have this virus continued to, you know, morph over time, the vaccines are at work and for all of us on this show impossible for us to really predict how that's going to go but the thing that has me concerned is that this is almost like too much the level of stimulus, we put $5,000 extra in every americans' hands, $3,500 of money coming from the government and $1,700 they haven't been able to spend.
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the wealth effect is enormous. if you held bonds, they help to up stocks and real estate and when this things reopen it's going to be huge we've been caged up do and we really need in addition to the other that we got another 1.9 trillion i don't want to see so much stimulus that we see a real inflation problem as we move into next year the tips market, the break-evens are predicting 3.5% inflation by the end of this year i'm not saying that's going to happen, but to a certain extent that represents a risk that we're almost pushing this towards overheating but for now definitely too early to make that call. >> jonathan, tim, share some of the bullish backdrop that you put out there, but when do markets pay for some of the normalized earnings? we've not cared, right, so the minute to me that we have that pent up and we have to look and say that this is normalized or
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bust, valuations make no sense >> you know, i'm not so concerned about the valuation. if you look at it, and i don't want to get too wonky here the pmo in the market at something like 22 is high. no other way of looking at it, but if you look at the amount of free cash flow you're getting out of the market it's enormous so the price to free cash flow or the price to the return of capital to shareholders looks very much in line with long-term averages, and we have a much lower cost of capitol so i think that we're going to be able to maintain multiples at these the levels, and my prediction is that over the next two or three years we'll probably see pes on the market hat 25 or higher, and i know that that sounds like a crazy number but it's driven bip fundamentals so i don't think this valuation argument is going to be the thing. i do think an overheated economy and is pushing this too far too fast and the speculative nature
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of something going on is reason for concern. >> jonathan thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> karen, are you worried about inflation and the economy just heating up faster than we expect later on >> yes, i am i have a number of inflation bets one of them actually would be bitcoin but list think the banks will be beneficiaries of that, and then i have more wonky ones, but i am very optimistic on the reopen trade, and i think that there is still room to run in some of the names will be surprised to the upside about how strong demand, is and when you think about it if that happens in the next two months or so and you have the stimulus, so for me it's names like, you know, an alta or a starbucks, even some -- i don't own foot locker anymore but something like a foot locker and then i have the ultimate reopen trade i think is live nation which by any metric section pensive but i
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think we'll see a gigantic second half for them so i'm hopeful and i do inflation will happen, but i'll worry about that a little bit later. >> maybe we shouldn't worry about that at all. even if jonathan, he pointed out tips market and more than 3% inflation by the end of the year, but jerome powell said he's not thinking about, thinking about, thinking about, i don't know how many thinking abouts there are but raising rates so what wins out knowing that the fed is not going to do it or the market doing it for the fed? >> well, the hubris associated with that comment, i mean, it's beyond -- well, i find it to be almost laughable that he'll say something like that because embedded in that is his belief that they somehow can control it or it can be controlled by forces which i think is preposterous i think you better hope it stops at 3.5% i guess is my pushback because i think we'll be well north that have in the back half of this year, and once that genie is out of the bottle,
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we've seen it before, you can't put it back in, and that's the existential risk to this market, run away inflation and, yes, i'm using that term because by the weigh inflation is here and they choose not to mention it and the dollar is getting torched like a whiteout for those of you who smoke out there. >> dan, last comment here. >> yeah, a lot of complacency and a lot of moving the goal posts. people feel pretty certain about what's going to happen here. there was a bloomberg story on friday talking about how money managers can't get their hands on enough of high-yield junk, levered loans that they are actually calling companies asking them to borrow, okay, before the deals even come to the table. i'm just telling you, it's not normal you can kind of put it in whatever pocket you want of the -- of, you know, the investment thesis. this is not normal and maybe everything has changed and i'm just telling you that a lot of stuff that i'm hearing sounds like crazy >> all right coming up, it's a semi-surge the sector up 7% already this
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month. what's behind this move? could it keep going and later twitter shares taking flight one options trade thinks there's enorroom to rise we'll tell you how to play it when "fast money" returns. bundling for example. you've got car insurance here. and home insurance here. why not... schuuuuzp.. put them together. save even more. some things are just better together, aren't they? like tea and crumpets. but you wouldn't bundle just anything. like, say... a porcupine in a balloon factory. no. that'd be a mess. i mean for starters, porcupines are famously no good in a team setting. geico. save even more when bundle home and car insurance. wondering what actually goes into your multivitamin? at new chapter, geico. save even more its' innovation, organic ingredients, and fermentation. fermentation? yes. formulated to help you body really truly absorb the natural goodness. new chapter. wellness, well done. this is how you become the best! [music: “you're the best” by joe esposito]
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welcome back to "fast money. check out the semiconductor etf. the smh rising more than 3% today. it's a move of the day kla corp were up 5% or more. dan, you flagged this one. >> yeah, well, we were talking about it we've been talking about this story for four weeks tremendous demand, you know, for chips from every which way and even if you have that work from home demand kind of trail off we'll have massive industrial demand and guy mentioned it last week and tim has been talking about taiwan semi and i think guy set off qualcomm had that disappointing result last week to buy it and recent all-time highs and i think that it's so bad there that maybe it's good playing some catchup on some manufacturing issues and that sort of thing, cheap stock, new manage president, that sort of thing so to me intel is the way we play it here. >> demand broadly for chips is
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so strong that there are shortages in many, many industries, guy, and one would think that this would be a very good sign for this industry at large. >> yeah. i took the economics in college and the whole supply/demand forces it actually does work. i agree with dan for qualcomm and look at the valuation and what they really said, this 148 level makes sense. amd is a name we've talked about for a while. if you go back and look over the last year and a half, i mean, it's pretty consistent in terms of stock runs up, they report earnings, a selloff consolidate and a couple weeks later we're making new highs and that's what you'll see in amd over the next couple of years as well. >> tim >> invidya is also interesting as much as i can't stand the valuation that's never been an issue for this stock and i've kind of gotten used to that. i think if you look at their corner of the graphics and gaming and high-tech chips it's -- it's the -- the demand is only growing. if you look at the charts, the breakout today is pretty interesting. you might have actually kind of
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broken through that 560 and 575 resistance area, and i do think that you would are bar-belling it i think you grab a high multiple and high-tech chip and put in a measure like anson. >> i read an article this morning that i thought was interesting because i'm not sure how to think about the short hajj in ships. the sentence was the shortages are expected to wipe out $61 billion in sales for automakers alone. do we think about this as, you know, cars that won't be sold in the future >> i'm not quite sure what you mean by that i don't know if it means cars delayed. >> yeah. >> or actual car sales that are lost. >> do you think they are lost, or do you think it's delayed >> delayed i think that's delayed i think like vacations, those are lost you're not getting those back, that cruise ride for that period at that time cars i think delayed, at least as a gm holder who has some
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production issues because of this shortage, i am really hoping that it's delayed. >> yeah. >> coming up, the bird is the word options traders were betting that shares of twitler fly higher from here that ahead and take two interactive on the go after reporting earnings should you play this name? find out next. much more "fast" in two. baas
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welcome back to "fast money. shares of take two interactive sinking in after hours let's get to josh lipton and the details. hey, josh. >> melissa, remember heading into this report the stock had rallied 20% in the past three months, up more than 100% from its lows last march and so the print q3 book, 814 million and q4 bookings guidance also a beat on the call the ceo talked about an incredibly strong holiday season, results, he said, exceeded expectations, as for gta 5 in 2020, more copies sold he said than in any year except 2013 when it first launched and nba 2k 21 pointed out that net
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bookings game out in engagements he talked incredibly strong. they are looking hat whether video gains gains are sustainable. post-game pandemic will be bigger than pre-pandemic but doesn't know if there will be a fallout when people can once enjoy live entertainment also checked with mkm eric handler's, engagement in the home environment he says is strong copy is on pace for its third consecutive record year. having said that eric is on the sidelines here a neutral rating and the bigger rates we saw here would not huge surprises and looking ahead 2022 growth prospects he argues and the lack of visible catalysts are concerned. elizabeth, back to you. >> the stock is hitting after-hour session lows down by 5.25%. it does strike mow and i'm not a gamer here, full disclosure, if
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it's not obvious already, burks tim, it would seem after the pandemic people would just by default not have as much time to spend on games, period >> yeah, but that's right. i know you're hooked on grand theft auto and you don't want to publicly admit it the and therefore there is -- no, look, i think you've pulled forward some demand. certainly had an audience that has been looking for something to do, but you also have trends and secular trends in terms of gaming which are replacing linear tv and other forms of either online for especially for the demographic that's focused on gaming so i like valuations here, i think they are a little bit stretched but at 35 times 22 this is i think a $2.30 -- $230 stock. no problem nba 2k disappointing those numbers, i think i think the street was expecting close to 65% growth on this, but i love this space, and i'm in it for the long haul
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>> why the pullback, do you think, guy was it the 20% run-up into the quarter in the past three months >> yeah, yeah, made an all-time high today, i think 215 or so so i guess -- you know, tim's point is right i don't think it's expensive at 35 times but maybe the market does, but by the way, this stock has sold off a number of times over the last few and a half on exactly those concerns and those results were short lived and josh works did a fabulous job by the way, did mention was operating margins came in really strong at 21.3%. the street was in the low 18s. that speaks volumes i think in terms of how well the business is being run so, you know, you might see another day two in this name but go back and look this has happened before, and every single time, much like amd a couple weeks later it's making new all-time highs and that's what we'll see again with take two. >> karen >>ia i think might be a little bit of disappointment that glue mobile
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which you remembered that i at one point had owned but don't now that take two is missing out on some of the m & a happening in the space. >> shares of take two down 4% right now. coming up, check out shares of twitter on a tear this past month. options traders on that up next. i made a business out of my passion. i mean, who doesn't love obsessing over network security? all our techs are pros. they know exactly which parking lots have the strongest signal. i just don't have the bandwidth for more business.
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welcome back to "fast money. check out shares of twitter playing to a new 452-week high mike koh spotted some breakout opportunities today. mike, what did you see >> twitter, this is a really volatile one over earnings over the last eight quarters this is a company that's moved 11% on average after they have report earnings and the longer term history is even more impressive than that 7%, the stock moved 10% higher or lower the week they reported of the right now the options market is expecting more of the same right now it's implying a move of 12% and most of the flows were bullish today and have been over the course of the last 20 dayses the most active options were the 60-strike options that expired in february. almost 20,000 contracts traded
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hands and they are betting the twitter share rally could break through that price through the premium that they spent and we saw a lot of activity in the march call options, the 60 and 65 strikes. >> dan, do you see twitter going high on earnings >> well, listen, i'll tell you this i think the real event will be february 25th when they have the analyst day. a lot of investors are hoping for them to get some product things right for better modernization. user growth was very disappointed last quarter. the stock is off 30% from the trend line and off the march lows can i see you coming back in and you might want to reload to the upside in anticipation of the february 25th analyst day. >> guy >> lost twitter. never thought it was about maus or daus. i said it was the long metric to look at. should get away from that and the stock continues to grind higher from that we've said it for a while in the retail sector abandoned same-store sales for large part. a matter of investors getting used to it. >> take your medicine sometimes. it gets better afterwards.
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time for the final trade. let go around the horn tim seymour? >> reopening trade hilton, grand vacations, hgv i talked about 30 million in permanent savings and free cash flow generation, but ebitda possibly 50 million this year and reopening trade looking good. >> karen finerman. >> yes, karen. and the dogs, sorry about that little sadone for me today selling upside calls in united rentals. had a really good run and i think the giant stimulus might actually make it a little harder to get infrastructure done so selling some upside calls in uri. >> dan nathan? >> yeah, so guy mentioned that the take two might be back towards those highs. i would tell you ea sold off last week after a small miss and that one is headed back towards its highs also. >> guy adam?
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>> mel, i know you thought the real mvp in last night's game was todd bowles. you have strong opinions on that >> absolutely. >> your instinct for sports is incredible caterpillar, the analyst community and offsides only 50% have buys. i think it trades up to 225. >> thanks for watching "fast." se my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, just trying to make you some money my job is not just to entertain but educate and teach. call me or tweet m me @jimmychillcramer you know something it's possible, not yet, to have too ch
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