e. good day, everyone welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler mathisen melissa lee will join us in a moment jim cramer says we're on the highway to the danger zone kenny log gins, is it time to cash out some gains? the dating app bumble making its debut. after pricing at $43, we'll tell you why investors are swiping right today. pitbull in the pits, now the

co-owner of a nascar team. he's going to join us to talk about that and much more later this hour. melissa? >> thanks, tyler. we begin with breaking news on the federal budget. ylan mui has the details. >> reporter: the nonpartisan congressional office saying the deficit will be 25% larger than previously forecast, mostly as a result of the covid relief package passed at the end of last year. this would be the second biggest deficit recorded since world war ii the cbo also expecting the deficit to average more than a trillion a year for the next ten years. that is going to push the national debt up to 102% of gdp this year and 107% in 2021, the

highest. it does not incorporate the relief package that congress is currently but the cbo does warn that future action could lead to markedly different results >> it sounds like a stumbling block. >> certainly the reason the cbo wanted to get this out is it could inform lawmakers' thinking clearly democrats have indicated they're okay with that republicans i'm sure, though, will use in as another piece of information to hammer democrats with as this debate goes on. >> ylan mui, thank you stocks taking a bit of a dive after the dow hit a record high this morning. a bit of fatigue, modest losses in the major indecents but the big caps have been spinning their wheels the last few days if you look at the s&p 500,

nobody feels as if it's completely run away to the up side if you look at how this trend has gone recently, it's been a tight, orderly trend bumping along the top end. every time we've done that, it's created a bit of a breathe egg for the market, but it's other parts of the market that seem more overheated, not so much the big benchmarks look at they etfs. this is year to date that means less than six weeks, up 26% the arc up 24%, a level fulfilling prophecy. this is a clean energy etf, up 33% year to date of course, that compares with just about 4% for the s&p 500. so, yes, pockets of over-excitement. tough to know if that will drive a reckoning overall. tyler? our jim cramer sounds the alarm on the market, saying it's

shown signs that people are getting too greedy >> this is starting to feel a little bit like a kenny loggins market yep, we're on -- i'm going to say it -- the highway to the danger zone! all right. overlydramatic, i know, but yo know what? i watch froth. froth really matters to me in a frothy market, markets will have rally without union lying levels you have to take something off the table. just like when you pour yourself a beer, the froth doesn't last >> it looks good, doesn't last on the other hand, tom lee says investors are too cautious, and that has him keeping his bullish suit on. let's bring him in cnbc contributor tom lee for more you heard what jim cramer says he sees signs of froth that won't last what do you say?

>> well, i agree with him. i think there are signs of froth in the market in 2021, and some of the areas michael santoli men mentioned, there were signs of froth for a while, it doesn't seem that high >> so it doesn't seem work than it did years ago >> i don't think this is -- i think this is at a far lower level than even the biotech crazy that was in that 2016 period. >> what makes you say that >> for instance, look at retail investor cash. they pulled out about $1 so billion out of stocks at the start of this year mutual fund and equity etf flowing have been negative averaging $7 billion a week, which means people are not taking money out of stocks and measures of our

institutional client sentiment, it's no that bullish head fudges degrossed dramatically, in fact, almost a massacre they haven't put that capital back into the market so i think more money has been leaking out of stock market than coming in. that doesn't to me seem like a formula for a frothy top it's more of a, as michael said, it's an air pocket created here. >> is it true or not true -- correct me if i've got the facts wrong, but specifically with respect to the reinvestors, the trend of money moving out of the stocks into fixed income has been the case for quite a few years with periodic exceptions, right they have missed out on a lot of them. >> the retail investor is multiple cohorts i think older americans, like baby boomers plus, have been allocating to bonds, but this shift into bonds is a ten-year

story. i mean, in the last ten years $3 trillion of household savings flow has been created, 94% went to bonds you look at any other ten-year period, unprecedented, most of the time it should be 50% or mo into equities, so stocks have had no real net inflows, and now we start to see retail investors getting interested in equity just because they're starting to buy stocks, i don't know why we say this is the top. this should be the first year of ten years with real inflows. >> if i sum it up in a quick, overly glip phrase, froth, yes, you see it danger zone, no, you don't >> yes if there was 30% of the stock market in insane territory and gapping up 10% a day, then that's pretty scary, but the

aggregate market cap is a tiny, tiny percentage of the stock market. >> tom, you like epicenter stocks and have liked them for some time. some may equate those stocks with reopening trade geffen we are expected to see sort of a hockey stick for the rest of the year, in terms of vaccines, coming out of the pandemic, by the end of the year, do you think you will like these stocks as much as you do right now? or will it be very different >> yes melissa, i think there's a bona fide opportunity for people to making quality returns owning epicenter stocks number one, they all dramatically cut costs, even things like casinos and cruise lines dramatically cut their cost structure the top-line story will come back, so there's true operating

leverage i think in a way people are overly bearish, because they're like, stocks, wherever they treaded in 2019 is where i'm going to fade them, but if companies have cut their costs and we now have pent-up demand and lower cost to capital, they should be blowing through their prior highs. many are still 50% to 70% below their all-time highs. >> tom, we're going to leave it there. good to see you. tom lee, thank you. rahel has a market flash. >> paypal issuing new guide on, the cfo saying the company expect to triple total payment volume to $2.8 trillion. they expect revenue to more than double to more than $50 billion from about 2$21 -- this new

guidance comes after color from dan shulman that they expect to double active accounts in five years from 377 million today, and the comments come a week after a strong earnings report for paypal they, the stock, by the way dipping a bit, but rallied 260% since march of last year, essentially the start of the up and down tyler? >> rahel, thank you very much. bumble making its public debut today. the former senior adviser at bumble about investing in women-led companies. we'll hear from that individual. later, we get behind the wheel with pitbull, now the co-owner of a nasr could team. we'll talk to him about that and what he thinking the music industry looks like in a post-covid world much more "power lunch" after

this - we have a location that has experienced four floods, a fire, a hurricane, and obviously now we're in the pandemic. this is during hurricane harvey. the water was like a river. - when you talk about nasdaq, people don't think about insurance or catastrophe risk but that's a product they offer. we have 12 companies that build these models. for example, we have fathom. they are experts in building flood catastrophe models and we get it through our nasdaq platform. so insurers would be able to provide the right guidance to janice and people like her project forwards the risk and actually use that to advise the policy holder where they buy their house or where they buy their next commercial property. - now we have this predictive flood modeling that we can go to and find out if it's gonna flood there or not. and if it's not, then guess what? we get to sleep easier. we get to go on a vacation. we get to grow.

shares of bumble began trading today. the ceo whitney wolfe herd spoke to us. >> people are really leaning into a digital-first approach when it comes to building their relationship prior to the pandemic, you would see people engage on the product and then jump into the real

world, and this fascinating shift has taken place we think is here for the long term, which is people are getting to know each other on our products, spending time on video, on audio. >> sarah served as senior adviser at bumble, helping them launch that vc fund, now a managing director at cleo capital. good to see you. >> thank you. we've heard the anecdotes about the popularity of these apps while people are cooped up at home, what is the growth trajectory outside the pandemic once we get to the other provpro proverbial side. >> 40% of relationships now start online, and those were pre-pandemic numbers certainly post-pandemic there's

a buildup of depend on this maybe two years by the time this is done, there's not going to be demand to meet people, go out on dates and kiss somebody without having to see covid test results. i'm wondering, in terms of the growth area, where do you see the most growth. >> absolutely. bumble bff is a fascinating product. you can turn off the dating if you are new to a city, or going through a life change where you're looking for new friends, new people to share hobbies with and with the workplace, you know

being something we might not go back to on a full-time basis ever, where do you go for companionship? even outside of romantic relationships, bumble is about connecting people for meaningful relationships with their lives it makes sense they'll only continue to grow and make it an app where you don't just leave because you found somebody on the dating part, you stay and flesh out the other parts of your life, too. >> i think about the competition from a linkedin, from a facebook, competition from just being able to go outside with your community how do you think about though vertical, particularly when you this is those are places where bumble will see the growth in the future

>> i think bumble will be in the chordating product certainly they'll continue to see the strong growth, the desire to connect with people is not going away romantically, but i do think there's a lot of growth available in these other categories linkedin serving a great purpose. it's a phone book in a business sense. i think facebook serves that purpose, but it's not really a -- i think that bumble does that in a meaningful one-to-one way. you can say, hey, this is what i'm looking for in a friend, a roommate, a running buddy. i need a kid who also just had a kid. you ask get gran uugranular

>> even if the dating place, there's a lot of players what sets bumble apart >> you know, it's like tesla, right? tesla did not invent car or electric cars. what tesla did is brought a new brand and new message that was value aligned with customers that's been working incredibly, incredibly well for them bumble tells women, hey, dating doesn't have to give up your autonomy or waiting around to decide who chooses you, you can make the first move. i think that's a message that resonates deeply with women. when you look at, you know, dating apps in sort of heteronormal culture, the men will show up >> good point. sarah, thank you we appreciate your time. >> thank you. still, bitcoin hitting a

record -- look how close we are. >> we are actually on the same set. monumental. >> it really is. the cryptocraze is catching fire we've got details, and february, of course, black history month we're honoring some of our cnbc contributors here is degas wright with a personal story about investing in himself. >> when i was in eighth grade, i was taking algebra i made a "d" i want to my mother, i'm one of two black students i didn't want all the white students to think i was stupid she said you need to learn this material, and we can't help you. the next day, i may issued i asked questions. next report card i had an qa." to this day math is my favorite

subject. i learned how to invest in myself it's hard to hope, hard to cope with crisis. so we get to work. we mend, fighting for every person in every neighborhood; we, the coming of the common good. so dare to care, to be hope-sided.

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welcome back to "power lunch," everybody. first topic, the growing acceptance of bitcoin, bny

mellon will start transacting in digital assets, alongside mastercard ease plans to allow merchants to accept payments in cryptocurrency, so it's not just tesla that will weather. >> mastercard and visa have had opartnership with various cryptoplayers, but basically they allowed it to be used, but had to convert it to fiat at the time it was processed. so in this case, it's using cryptocurrency for the actual transaction without the need for the dollar >> i'm thinking about how hard it would be to do this, but obviously they transact in lots of differentcurrencies >> there's an interesting point. if you are a bitcoin and are a true belief, why would you give it up and pay a it is la with it

or hot dog, whatever it is why wouldn't you just hold on to it if you're a true believer in the long-term value. on to chips or the lack thereof. the biden administration promises an executive order regarding chips. to address the shortage and to create jobs. in 1990 the u.s. made 37% of the world's chips. now today that number is down to just 12% it's makers of video games, other electronics as well, could be iphones, et cetera. ty >> we were talking a while ago with dennis, who's done work in asia over the years, and he says one of the impacts will be blockages in the supply chain.

this is certainly one of the consequences of exactly that, the supply chain isn't working the way it used to it's going to take time to repair we're sitting across from one another. we set this up on right, bumble? >> i made the first move. disney hitting a record high ahead of its earnings report everyone has been watching this one. one focus will be on disney's streaming services still trailing netflix, but making its presence felt more than 137 million paid subscribers. disney plus alone is at roughly 86 million, only a little more than a year old. disney making a big bet on streaming, and it's paying off >> we've heard other streaming services and studios talking

about direct-to-consumer releases, and of course, what they say about the reopening, what they're expecting with the timeline, given a little more visibility into the vaccine levels across the country. >> i don't know about disney, but i know about some of the other streaming services i think they'll eventually need to -- >> it sounds like you have some experience with this, tyler. [ laughter ] maybe a little bit we all do, let's be honest. ahead on "power lunch," the etf that cracks the group on pace on pace for the worst day every. plus a pit stop with mr. worldwide himself, pitbull we'll ask him about his big bet on nascar and much more. stay tuned chnology enables the power industry to integrate renewable energy sources to modernize and improve the electric grid.

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i'm courtney reagan. here's your cnbc covid update at this how should. the latest numbers from the cdc show that 46 million doses of the covid vaccine have been administered in the ivins, indicating the pace is picking up almost 35 million people have received one or more doses

of those, 11 million have been given both doses so far most of the shots have been reserved for the elderly and healthcare workers, with some states starting to include people with underlying conditions on nbc's "today" morning show, dr. anthony fauci predicted when everyone will become eligible. >> if you look at the projection, i would imagine by the time we get to april, that will be what i would call, you know, for bert wording, open season, namely virtually anybody and everybody in any category could start to get vaccinated. >> right now the vaccine supply remains spotty, the mass vaccinate site outside dodger stadium will be closed tomorrow and saturday, because the city of los angeles expects it worn have enough vaccine to keep giving those first doses. >> courtney, thank you well, start your engines the daytona 500 takes place this

sunday the grand marshal none other than pitbull mr. worldwide becoming a co-owner of a nascar team along with former driver justin marks. here is armando christian perez, aka pitbull. good to see you good. >> whoo! great to see you g >> you announced this on your 40th birthday. why nascar >> it's a great platform, and justin marks has given me an opportunity and the driver is daniel suarez, which i relate to his story, coming from nothing to something but the most important part is that it allows us to utilize the platform and team track house to bring everybody together i feel that's what we need most

especially we've done it in music and now in nascar. it's a tremendous honor. i look forward to being the grand marshal on sunday. >> i've had the privilege to talk with you over the years a few different times. first and forbes most, when i think about it, you think of you as a business person when you think about the audience you will be reaching through this investment, how does that further your brand how does it further the causes you are interested in? >> what it does, basically, it reaches everybody, to say honest with you the goal goal is to take nascar from the united states and make it international with this story, this team, it opens the doors for those kind of conversations it also opening the doors for everybody out there to understand it's about taking nats car and not just being a sport, but creating a culture. it's just a beginning. i look forward to learning, but more than anything it's about the movement and the message,

and bringing little together, so thank you to track house, justin, ty and -- for believes in me. >> if i had one tip for you, just work on the enthusiasm. you need to lift it. >> yeah. you haven't seen me yet. it's just 2:30 >> i'll catch up with you later. [ laughter ] nascar last year had -- i guess it was last year, an unfortunate incident involving bubba wallace that turned out to be very complicated how much of this move springs from your desire to make a statement everywhere to advance equality in that sport and among its fans i think you understand what you're driving at? >> i do, and i'm going to step on the gas listen, that's exactly what it's about. it's about taking a sport,

making it a culture, and showing everybody that this is for everybody. i've been telling people all the time, and i tell them when i'm on stage and perform around the world. there's one race, one race only, and that's the human race. when we start to figure it out, we'll make the world a better place. i'm taking these platforms to get this message across. no hidden agenda here. we want to win we want to create an amazing bits we want to make history, but not if, but we're going to take this and show through racing we can bring everybody together the same way we have through music i know that michael jordan is part of bubba's team so between me and jordan, we're just trying to show that racing can bring everybody together. we have a whole graphical wall shot the big portfolio, but in terms of looking around, as we are still fighting covid and we're in the midst of the

pandemic, where you do you see the greatest opportunities consumer brands? maybe in the stock market? i mean, do you take a look at things like cannabis stocks? bitcoin and say, hey, that looks interesting? >> we're involved in a lot of companies that have to do with cannabis and things of that nature what's going to happening is the roaring '20s everything will come raging back, and i hope the public has a different appreciation for life, looking at life from a different perspective. i'm also involved in live by live it's a platform that allows artists to perform and stream to their fans that in this day and age and time, everybody needs it the most everybody needs to some hope and some fight with everything that's going on. live by live has been an amazing palace form to do that with, for us to create that with other artists, and we did the podcast

as well. that's been a great investment for ourself, more than anything, for the world. that's what the world needs. they need some kind of an escape, to take this negativity out of the way and give them just hope and motivation. >> so you point to my next question that has to do with the fact that many, many artists make most of their -- in music make most of their money today by touring, by live events. that has been just knocked off the shelf over the last year i guess i can see a time when there is a kind of hybrid form of touring, like live by live, where on the one hand you may be performing in front of the a filled stadium or arena in new york, boston or chicago, but at the same time you could livestream that event and have yet another revenue stream, couldn't you >> correct correct. like i say it's a blessing in disguise, and god closes a door to open a window

as we continue to grow live by live, that to me, it creates another revenue stream for artists, so when we come back and hit live shows and get on the stage, now they have another bucket in the meantime, we're just going to be tweaking and getting it just right. that's what's so exciting. i'm glad we had a chance to speak about that today entertainment is what the world needs now. the world needs to get loose, a needs to escape bottom line, and that's what we're doing with live by live. >> on that topic last topic, when is your next live performance >> live performance? as of right now, we're looking at summertime, but i will be at the daytona 500 swinging the flat, ready to go. >> good to see you. >> thank you stay blessed

check out tilray, it's been a riser, but it's down big today. we're going to look at the cannabis stocks later this hour. if you think the travel industry will rebound this year, you should look at expedia there it is, our traders will weigh in next on "power lunch.

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best day ever, and the cannabis stocks off the highs that the reddit users took them to tilray the canadian producer, down big as well, down about 45%. so yes, mgenerally more volatiln the canadian stocks, which you can trade on robinhood, as opposed to u.s., which you can -- us operators appear to be in a better position overall especially if it's -- back they

do have fundamental reasons fueling their run. the first they plan to merge and become the biggest cannabis company in the entire world. tilray has also as opposed to betting big like a number of other companies have, back to the u.s. names that's largely why you see the a pure u.s. play it's down a lot less with those canadian names. >> back over to you. excise it to very highly traded talks, in orders of magnitude. what are we see to the down side are volumes as heavy >> yeah, the volumes are still

heavy. i'm thinking it's sundial, more volume, not seeing quite that today. a lot of these reddit traders and how to reposition stocks like sundial, and -- >> there's still an hour frank you thank you. now to seema mody. >> a key question is what steps are the -- know exceeds that of the entire home rental market, equal to just 16% of total dollars spent. signs of fraud, let's bring in

-- boris schlossberg boris, your thoughts on this rivalry between expedia and airbnb it has been put ago lot of money into growing its vacation rental platform where it showed it's not going away bookings this summer, same period last year. >> no, i think that's really the story with exceedia. they're 60% below pre-pandemic levels there are really no sign of them coming back significantly. certainly the business traveler is not going to come back in a long time as we've seen a lot of business travelers have become unnecessary. the home rental market, and more importantly, i think the market is betting on a very, very specific type of travel the

cities, the museums, the theaters, and that's where airbnb excels, and that's the bet, that's such strong price action, and art of earnings call that's exactly how their home rental business log going. that's the primary driver. >> your thoughts on airbnb up big. >> it says it's with history back to december, and with limited price history, you don't have any ways to discern how over-bought the stock is >> and if you look at exceedia on the other hand, that up trend still has positive momentum

across time hidesens, and i'm not one to fight that. what i would say is the risk/reward is not great when it looks at the proximitity of support, which is right around 161, that's the 2016 high the upside potential here. we'll see what the company says tonight be sure to tune in tomorrow. for more trading nation, head to our web side seema, shares of kimko reality has been trying to get back to pre-pandemic levels. will we ever shop the way we did before >> the kreismt off will talk --

conner flynn after this.

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welcome back, everybody. shares of kimco realty rising. the stock is up more than 25% in the last three months. the company is retail and real estate indicator, basically. with tenants including tjx, walmart to name a few. here with more on the consumer comeback that he sees is our friend conner flynn, ceo of kimco realty, one of the largest owner of outdoor shopping centers in the u.s conner, great to see you again we thank you for coming back. >> nice to see you. >> why don't you sum up the quarter you just had and one of

the things that really stood out to me is that your ability to sign new leases in the fourth quarter of last year was even greater than it was in the fourth quarter a year prior, right? >> that's exactly right. we're really pleased with the quarter. you know, incrementally our collections are now up to 92%. 97% of our tenants are open and operating. we have a grocery centered portfolio. the grocers have been the winner in this pandemic were deemed essential and provides goods and and zfss the biggest take away is the demand that snapback it's impressive to see retailers are looking for new space to take advantage of the pent up demand they see coming really i think there will be a lot of revenge spending going on and they want to take market share when the reopening occurs. >> so you said that -- i infer from what you said you're collecting 92% of the rent that you should be collecting

that was that number you sited what is your vacancy rate you're seeing across your portfolio >> just above 93% occupied right now. we came into this pandemic at all time highs just over 96% so we are seeing that demand really be strong to recover that lost occupancy you know, it's across multiple sectors, too i think one of the interesting things is the essential retailers never took their foot off the gas. but what we found is the non-essential retailers are coming back and looking for space. meaning the restaurants and the discount fitness operator. and so it's a pretty widespread of demand across our portfolio we're experiencing. >> con e how should we think about the reopening? should we think when the economy is fully reopen and people are back to doing what they normally do you're going to gain those few percentage points in occupancy and nonpaid rents. you're collecting rents as it is what is your leverage to that reopening? >> that's exactly right. we see a lot of upside in the future due to that pentup demand

and demand for our vacancy space. we see a blocking and tackling of leasing really driving our earnings growth in the future. now we're seeing that demand snapback the retailers are starting to look at their real estate a little differently. and the store has become what they're using the phrase fulfillment epicenters which is really important as the dynamic is changing where the store is actually solving for that last mile fullmefillmet with buy online, curb side pickup >> grocery stores seem to be doing very well, the home depots seem to be doing great walmart seems never to do anything but pretty well how much of your rent or your revenue is tied to the overall revenue of those retailers in other words, you might collect a percent of what their total revenues are, and are those revenues holding up as well as the other parts of your business seem to >> so, the lion's share of the grocery-anchored shopping center

leases are actually fixed leases we don't get a percentage direct you're referring to upside potential if they knock it out of the park. you know, that's why our defensive natured portfolio has really shined through this pandemic and the rents we've been collecting have not ebb and flowed with the revenues of the retailers. we're steady eddy, sort of down the fairway grocery anchored delivering everyday goods and service which is we continue to think is what's going to shine going forward. >> and so, as you look ahead to 2021 and beyond, what do you see? you've mentioned a couple of times a real sort of power bollic bounce back in spending that's what you expect >> the nice part is the demand is the indicator of the future of what the retailers are going to look like what they're doing is activating the exterior space surrounding our open air shopping centers which will drive a lot of jobs employment as well a lot of these retailers will open in the next six to 12 months in the future it looks like it will be a combination of the

essential retailers that have been obviously flourishing through this pandemic, complimented by a new push by nonessential, mainly quick-service restaurants i think ones that are activating drive throughs and outdoor area, fitness will come back nicely. but we really think the combination of everyday goods and services with some nonessential is the right mix to drive traffic at all points during the day >> conor, thank you very much for your answers today always good to see you. >> pleasure. well, the dow hitting a record high earlier in the session, pulling back since then now it is down by just about 84 points but the action today in bumbl soaring its debut. "power lunch" will be right ckba

we see temperature control software giving everyone a shot at vital vaccines. at emerson, our software is shepherding medicines through every step of the cold chain, helping track conditions to keep each dose safe and effective. emerson. consider it solved.

after our conversation there, melissa, with conor flynn, we were talking about the future of retail and how a year ago we all thought retail was either going to die or be different or have to be anchored by experiences, like the gyms or amusement parks inside. >> right bars bars in the nordstroms. >> but it looks like simpler may actually work. >> never interacting with somebody may actually work when it comes to placing an order online, driving up to pick it up or have that package placed into your trunk directly. maybe the experiences were never chalked up you have to think, what is the future of retail how do they re-imagine those

malls if experience doesn't come back to what it had been viewed as before. >> i think of the place that's not far from here called american dream if you've not seen it near the meadow lands sports complex. it was really predicated on this idea of having all families and entertainment and all this stuff. oh, boy, they picked a time. >> i think of a lot of hand sanitizer when i think of that thanks to watching "power lunch. it's great to be with you, tyler, in person on the same desk "closing bell" starts right now. melissa and tyler, thank you very much i'm will fred tro frost along with morgan brennan. another day record for the dow but gains have faded throughout the session. a look of what's driving the session. major averages mostly low but the nasdaq back in the green after a big jump to start the year jobless claims coming in worse than expected. 793,000 first-time claims last week and throwback to the