component, we're going to get their numbers on thursday. >> as mike mentioned yield's one of the biggest stories 30 year at 2.13. stocks were mixed for the week as a whole we're out of time on "closing bell." thanks for watching. "fast money" starts now. >> i'm melissa lee and this is fast fast. karen, steve, jess and our newest "fast money" contributor, nadine, welcome, nadine. tonight, what a difference a year makes hit one year ago today but not all stocks came along for the ride we're looking at names that might be ready for catchup plus, the big investor who gave a big vote of confidence we've got a special bonus hour of fast coming up at 6:00 p.m. a deep dive into the new american investor. going to a spectacular rapper.

yes, i said rapper texas tries to cope with massive power failures, infrastructure plays are heating. check out free port-mcmoran. has all this wild weather made the story even more compelling karen, what do say >> it brings to light how we need infrastructure upgrades and i think there's some policy as we battle it out with china action you know, can we rely on this worldwide trade that the global zalgs that's happened over the last 10 or 20 years, do we need to start bringing stuff home as it relates to infrastructure, we've been hoping for this for a long time. when i -- a position like united rental, this is absolutely the holy grail for them. think about their business model. they have fixed costs.

if you get utilization way up, pricing way up, that's fantastic for them all that having been said, though, this is as expansive as i've ever seen you or i. so there is optimism already in there. we need an infrastructure bill for it to not trade down, i think if we got one, it would continue to trade higher >> i know you and karen are hopped up on the midday call if there was ever a time when the american consumer, the american voter out there was convinced that infrastructure needed attention, needed investment, now is the time, seeing what is going on in texas. >> melissa, i think you and karen right here, what you have in texas is a supply shock you have the governor saying listen, we need to winterize our state. you look at my state, we need to protect against fire, floods, so that untds spend in infrastructure is a big deal you see biden come out saying we need a big plan. today you see the house transportation and

infrastructure chair saying we need a $1.5 trillion spend and people are saying that's not enough so those two things along with what karen said, which is china threatening to limit exports for precious metals. it means the probability of infrastructure spend just went up >> yeah. so where are the values? karen had alluded to you or i which she thinks is overvalued there may be stocks that are taking into conversation the possibility of an if infrastructure bill. >> yeah. and i -- >> overvalued if there is -- >> sorry overvalued if there is no infrastructure, if there is infrastructure, it's a-ok. jeff, what do you say? >> no. i agree with karen that's where i was going to go just to echo the sentiments of everyone else. i think there was this concernble that if we were to get a big stimulus bill right now, it would be more difficult

to pass infrastructure, climate spending, things of that nature later in the year. i think that has changed now even with w4567d in texas. let's not forget, there are tls that are supporting this story, too. we got manufacturing pm irvegts for the u.s., for europe both very strong so i think that's part of the story as well. i look at stocks like cat and vulcan, these are names that i've mentioned over the last couple of months they're nice up steady trends breaking out to new highings the last couple of months. the same thing for a couple of rails. i think they end up participating in all this. last thing i'll say is rel difficult to small caps, it's been such a big story this year. definitely overbought, no question about that. but i think the valuation gap still exists when you look at the sl ynks, that's how we would prefer to play small caps, almost 25% in industrials and materials. ful. >> there is wrapped up in the rotation that you've advocated, away from growth and technology

and into the cyclical plays on the bet that the economy is reopening, reopening soon. >> yes, so if you look at the ywms since november 1st, they're up 47% against an s&p that's up more where you started out saying this is about infrastructure, sure, but i think it's only about 20% about infrastructure i think the balance, 80% is about rates. this is about the renation air trade. i know it's all sort of mixed up in the sausage making but look at the ten-year. the ten-year went from 50 basis points to 1.33%. i know it's a huge move. it's 1163% move based on a percentage of the percentage that's what it's about think about this senate, the house are tied up

with the covid relief reconciliation bill. that's going to take us another couple of months we're not getting infrastructure until june or july you -- i know the market is a forward looking price mechanism but we're talking about a bunch of months where anything could happen we already spend $50 billion a year on highways and bridges we need, as was said earlier, 1.5 billion. that's an incredible -- a trillion that's an incredible amount to spend. it's going to be past reconciliation it will get done but it will get done in june or july >> say the time frame is pushed out or that it doesn't even happen steve has a good point, that's if inflation is already happening, can these stocks and an rui be not so overvalued

given what's going on with the forces of the economy, which is rerate inning things >> they have debt, some. as inflation goes higher that debt is less burden on the balance she'd. they'll be able to pay down the debt they'll continue toer more and more money because they won't have interest expense. if you get pin nation it starts to get out of control. the multiple on the market entirely will come down. that will affect every stock the high flyers that steve's been talking about, those will be hit hardest that discount cash flow of future earnings, that number will get smaller and so those stocks, i think, will trade down but they'll all trade down if we get up nation out of control it's good for some of their underlying business.

>> under when scenario, just inflation taking off, is it under a scenario where we get a bill passed? >> i think steve is right. this a number of factors that are driving this not just call it a higher probability of an infrastructure bill in the future but you also have a depreciating dollar promise of green spend around the world, either the euro zone or china when you're thinking about performance it', you have hook back multiple years as you've seep lot of people saying could this be the next super cycle because these stocks have not traded as well of a longer horizon there can be outperformance. you don't have to wait until certainty of a bill. >> get this. can you believe this exactly a year ago today, the

s&p 500 hit its prepandemic peak what a year it has been for the benchmark. up 80% and surpassing last year's milestone if you're worried you've missed out, carter has more what are you looking at? >> you bet this will play right to the conversation you were having about whether it is right to be in beta and cyclical names, renation air names or not. let's look at a table and floor charts the first table is a six-minute performance. you see the s&p up a nice chunk, 11%. marquee growth names, big long-term winners, all down and down substantially talking about spreads of 1500 to 200 basis points on the 600 basis versus the mar also a chart of that exact same circumstance so this is a comparative chart,

four lines, you see the market up and to the right. yousee the stocks all quite correlated and flat, meaning they're treated as an asset class. are they stocks that are suffering because rates are going higher the very conversation and what sort of multiple do you sign to future cash flow in the event of higher rates third chart. this is to show over the past year, year and a half how correlated they are. they are an asset. they are a thank you unto themselves they're all being unloved now. the question is, is this period of under performance an opportunity or is it just the beginning of worse we think it's the former now, here is a basket. next chart this is the three stocks, amazon, adobe and facebook but you could put home depot in here, you could microsoft, in a way, in here costco great leaders that have been flat and boring as other things have come to life. now, final chart

this is what my eye seize. ivan tated i've drawn the lines, yes, which is to say we're working into the apex, tighter and tighter of -- you can call it a trauma, a wedge, doesn't matter what you call it, this typically gets resolved yeah, it's going to get resolved down as rates go higher. i think it's the opposite. i think these are going to break out. we know two things the spread between small around large account, russell 2,000, 1978 to present s&p has only been exceeded one other time in history and it was in february and march of 2000. what we also know and we'll end with this is that in a way the market can only go up if these big laggards come to life. just to put that in context, these are the statistics going back to the beginning of data in 1989 when tech is down on any given trading day in any given week, the s&p is down 80% of the time. when the growth index is down,

google and amazon, the s&p 500 is down 93 orz of the time it can only go higher over time if these marquee names participate. >> so is it's a good sign for the markets, carter, according to your analysis >> i think that's right. in the sense the first thing you do in a perfect world is short ywm and long spy if you think the market is going higher in gem, it's only going to happen because the stocks start to prarp tech is down, the s&p is down 80% of the time. what happened this time, fnlts up, materials. was the market up? of course not. why? because of a big name slow down. >> see you next half-hour. carter of the cornerstone. >> you bet >> jeff mills, which of these catchup plays do you like? >> you know what we're still in this relative value on the cyclical side i think retail sales numbers that we saw this year are fore

145doing what's to come. the weather warms up, the service economy starts to open up i think you have a couple of quarters ahead of us of some strong stimulus driven growth. i have a hard time, at least with amazon and ape doby thinking of them as catch-up trades carter said it they're already term winnerers the last five years, the s&p is up 120% to use round numbers, amazon's up 430, adobe up 500% as the economy starts to ramp, as inflation goes up, the similar argument i made last week in terms of the under performance of a stock like google >> coming up, it's becoming a favorite among the reddit crowd and it just got a boost on talen tear one stock paying off in a big way. eare "fast money" straig ht ahd.

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next friday earnings let get to senior analyst at oppenheimer the analyst who made the call >> thanks for having me. >> what's going to be the primary driver of this >> so the primary driver is we analyze the state data so on thursday you have four key states, illinois, michigan, pennsylvania, new jersey, all dropped the revenue data what we saw was draftkings main taped solid share in online sports better. they've been able to gain share at i gate which we think is being undervalued. we kind of analyzed the varn trends it looks pretty good for a solid 1 q. fundamental they're able to maintain their share, you see your normal seasonality and sports betting it looks like revenue should be above the high end of their 21 guidance they previously gave on 850 million >> what's the end game for these

onlineal gaming stocks is it just a matter of waiting until it's he'll in all different states is it doing the page providers, shameless plug, i'm in bft, which is pay safe. -- is it paypal, pay safe or is it critical mass for these guys? is it enough they were there first, name recognition against the penn gaming or things like that >> i think you got think with draft king, one, this is a company that's got phenomenal customer kpe competencies. you are trying to gain critical mass if you're able to gain critical mass, unlike casinos, particularly regionalized, this is the first time you've had a chance to use your brand, scale your brand and build a platform nationally you dpap more critical mass. therefore you're able to reduce

your customer acquisition and get massive scale and potentially generate leverage potentially on your sales and market >> hey, ice jeff mills thanks for being on. i have a question about the total market size. i've seen estimates of 40 to $50 billion annually i'd be interested to hear what you think. >> the way we look at it we have about online sports betting, about 11 billion by 2025 that's about 70% of the population is legal. then for i gaming we're about five to six billion. assumes 30% of the pap las vegas's legal. however, you are seeing that these -- you look at new jersey, the amount of tax revenue these sites are bringing in to the state. we think that -- you could have more of the population but legalized sports betting

the other thing to consider, too, is we're just in the early innings of this sports betting cycle. as live betting becomes more important, the platforms will be able to give you more products you're also going to have younger people in college grow up more on the legalized channels the market could be huge you've seen estimates in ten years you have a hundred percent of the population, sports betting could be >> thanks for being on you've had the call for this one nine months or so, so great. how do you get there what do you think is the most likely think to go wrong to make things not as rosy as they have been for quite a while >> yeah. the target is it's a combination out to 2030 which assumes draftkings has 30% share and some -- then a high revenue

multiple comp of other disrupted internet companies like a peloton, a fiber what could go wrong, it's regulation that's what -- you look at new york state, governor cuomo was attempting to do a single provider model, which i think would be bad for the industry, rile, and would disrupt up ovation. so it's unfavorable legislate. >> great to have you with us thanks for your time >> thanks for having me. >> let's trade draftkings. steve grassley, you're up. >> yeah. i don't know really how to play this i don't think -- i don't think -- i think to karen's point, the biggest thing for them is that the worst is potentially behind them and only more states are opening up, so i think specifically draftkings is a buy. i'm in bft because that's the one that offers payment solutions to draftkings as well as a host of other companies.

>> all right coming up, talenteer stages. don't forget we've got a bonus hour of fast coming up at the top of the hour 6:00 p.m. eastern time back for more "fast money" after this wanna build a gaming business that breaks the internet? that means working night and day... ...and delegating to an experienced live bookkeeper for peace of mind. your books are all set. so you can finally give john some attention. trusted experts. guaranteed accurate books. intuit quickbooks live.

welcome back check out theirs of palling an tear the search coming after cathy woods added to its stake overnight. becoming a favorite among the reddit crowd we had that downward draft after the erpgs and the loss expiration this week

from 38, not 25. what you still have is a company that's growing revenues in 2021 about 30%. i think you're going to have investors looking for that kind of growth, especially outside of your usual suspects. you have some budget priorities shifted. if you hook at the chart it's held support around 24 and 25. i think city it's a long-term buy and i think the price is more stable than in the past >> you like palantir >> the ceo did a good job of saying listen if you're looking for a short term play go somewhere else but if you want a long term business model, come here we like those types of management teams and businesses. it's a story about execution they can execute on their large backlog by, then up think this can be a horrible thing for

people who never looked at the stock before >> we talked about palantir, talked about how she liked the company for the long term. she's speaking your language. >> well, it's hard to get on the valuation with short term, but i mean, i agree with nadine. if they can execute, they're in just such a sweet spot place to be this is a great way to express it i think, you know, the lockup is providing a little bit of an opportunity. if you held a gun to my head, i would absolutely own it and maybe even without a gun to my head just thinking about the long term growth prospects here is very enticing. >> it is time for the final trade. nadine, kick it off. >> i lmg, a great business, wonderful management team and strong cash flow this year with innation, it's a buy.

>> karen >> yes going back to low valuations kind of my safe place, fedex, i think it grows regardless of where the economy is >> the general >> do my best steve rosso impression they're going to merge with beach body and fitness beach body has 3 million paid subscribers, so does peloton i like the digital fitness space. >> steve >> value play oln trading at $29. been talk about it since 12. it's going to 50 don't chk itec look at it buy it now >> stay tuned. [music: “you're the best” by joe esposito] [music: “you're the best” by joe esposito] [triumphantly yells]

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>> happy friday. tonight's trader lineup, the reopening trade has been a run away but there's a right and a wrong way. we lay out the trades. plus a social butterfly takes flight we'll find out what taupe is doing with it right now. also we're taking your tweet tweet us