it. >> oh, yeah, i was just following you, steve. kevin? >> in front of the earnings, st this massive videoconferencing has become. >> okay. i like it. shannon? >> charles schwab, and we like the financials over the energy over here. >> all right. that it is. it does here at "halftime. "the exchange" begins right now. ♪ >> yes, it does, joe. happy monday. i'm brian sullivan and it is a happy monday and a new month and huge new gains for your money. the markets have been having the best day of the year, and 95% of the s&p 500 are higher, and travel stocks are sold out. and the vaccines are soaring, and the bond bombshell that rocked last week all but gone.

let's talk about all of this and wrap it in a bow. and dom chu is looking at the interest rates matter, and vaccines is and everything matters. >> it is the taylor swift market, and it is the shake it off market. and starting to anticipate a little bit here as the vaccine optimism picking up, and as a result, we have a solid update, and off of the best levels of the session, and up well over 600-plus points by the time that the dow industrials hit the day, and up 585 and 2% gain there, and the s&p 500 similar percentage gain, and 3895 there, and pushing up against the 39 mark, and the nasdaq composite is outperforming with 13,517, and curiously at one point, the dow industrials were outperforming the nasdaq. and one place to keep an eye is what is happening on the treasury yields. and interesting, brian, at the pandemic lows, we were close to 0.4% on the 10-year treasury,

and the 1.45% trade there, and at the higher levels that we have backed around from 1.61%, and the interest rates are backing off, and watch the financials, and the real estate, and the defensive names, and the dividend yield there. and the bitcoin prices are up 10%, and 48,700 according to the coin metrics and depending upon the platform or the exchange, and remember that 56,500 thereabouts was the highs at the record, and so we are down 14% from levels here, and then check out these stocks in the dow jones industrial average. they are leading the way higher. boeing with 4.5% gain and adding 70 points to the dow. and goldman sachs about 70 points there, and 4046 point gain for the caterpillar shares and then looking at these four stocks here with united health, those are the bulk of the

stocks. the stocks coming back around and i send it to you. >> you have cases down, and vaccinations up, and lot of optimism up, and we would call these to continue the taylor swift references, champagne problems. and you is the possibility of $1.9 trillion thrown into the economy over the next few years to reopen or whatever you want to call it, and the market is basically saying that we are headed towards reopening it is a huge disconnect, and the market loves the idea of another $2 trillion rolling in over the last five years. >> it is not that long ago that we were talking about republicans in congress talking about no, we want another 7 or $8 trillion, and now at this stage, you have given up the minimum wage at $15 at the federal level, but the $1.9 trillion targeted amount out there for everybody. we will see whether or not it happens for more fiscal stimulus coming down to line, but talking about trillions of dollars, that

is the reflation trade that everybody is referring to, brian. >> as we know so much of the $1,400 check will go into the equity market and a lot of it used to pay down to credit card debt, but the market likes it, they like the news over the weekend and 500 million vaccinated in two days. so the market likes it, dom. everything is higher today, and the stock is market 95% of the stocks are higher, and all of the s&p 500 sectors are higher, and the cryptos are higher, and led by ethereum, and energy stocks are the best performing group yet again, and the best performer so far this year. the quote, unquote reopen trade in full effect. joining us is quincy crosby, the chief market strategist at prudential financial, and jethro townsend at adend capital management. and quincy, starting with you, we know that things are going to be looking better in the spring and the summer based on the current path unless there is

something that we don't see coming, and the only question now is that have the valuations gotten silly, and are we way overestimating the earnings pull forward from the idea that we are back on the road in the summer and hitting the airports? >> well, you know, given what we have been through, and given the circumstances that we have been through, you can't help but understand why the market is moving the way it is moving. and with johnson and johnson coming on board and with the number of vaccinations that are taking place, the is market looking ahead, and what is good about it though, is that market is broadening, and it is including the industrials, and you can see cat today in the group, and that is one of the infrastructure plays, and you can see boeing, and taking a look at all of the sek storctort are leading the market, and it is broadening, and it is not how we started, brian, but it is hormel spam and hershey chockt las and on the other side, five

mega cap stocks, but it is now doing a normal broadening, and this is what is healthy for the market. so, the valuations climb higher? most likely, but we can see the market, and once those yields climb higher, too, all of the sudden, we will see a pullback, and by the way, i am looking at the euro/dollar futures and they are looking at the third quart over 2022 next year as the potential liftoff. all of the economists can argue back and forth and let's see what the market says about the fed's framework is going to be looking like once we pull out of this. >> yes, and jethro, it is good to have optimism, and i have been out there on the rollout for a few months, and fingers crossed that the way it goes, but have we gotten ahead of ourselves a little bit or are you all in >> well, thank you for having me on the show, and thank you for the question with regard to interest rates, i was on the network in the early february

and talked about the spike in bond yields could add to the takeoff of the markets, and what we are seeing is the textbook of the inversion of the interest rates and the inflation that is starting to work, and so given where we are, the raise is in an absolute sense looking at it before in relative to the earnings yield on the s, and p, and 290 basis points of the delta in versus the s&p of the 10-year, and the question is the velocity of the rate moves, and as we know the market circles as a mechanism with regard to the interest rates, but as i said before, the people are comparing it to dot-com period in terms of the valuations that we talked about, and starting to mirror the dot-com peaks in terms of valuations, and something to take into consideration. but, again, yields are like 4.5

to 5% versus 1.5 to 2% now. so some cushion there. >> and jethro, follow up on, that an follow up on a different time, there because i remember breaking below 5%, and i thought, oh, my gosh, 5%, and we will never see it on the upside if we live another 60 years or whatever, and pnb paribas had a note saying that when the interest rates rise, they have sharp corrections with the date in 1983, and so in your mind was the equity move last week caused entirely by the rate temper tantrum if you will? >> yeah. there was some correlation there. i think that earlier, there was talk about what was happening in the bond bits in terms of the supply and demand with regard to rates. again, the high velocity with the sharp violent move in rates is not a good thing for the equity markets, and we saw some of thevaluations start to come down. certainly, historically, i can understand what you are saying

in the report, but also periods where we have had rising rates and improving economy in a higher stock market occurring at the same time and looking back historically it happened in '07 to '09 period, but we have to monitor to what the fed is doing, and to the extent that the fed could change the policy, that is a concern for the market. >> quincy, running out of time, but where can you see the values or the decent value or good value? >> the financials. they are going to be doing well as the economy picks up, and the regionals are going to do well, and before long, you will hear more and more about infrastructure. i think that biden wants to get the agenda through as quickly as possible, and the industrials with the equipment and the materials that have been doing well, and the mid cap will need

to pullback, and they will be beneficiary, but so are the mid-bans and that is the kre, and you had boeing out there and i like love, love, too. and americans want to travel, and no doubt about it. business travel is going if be slower to get going, but leisure travel is moving already it is going to continue. i would take the love and move with it. >> and these are all good points, and quincy and jethro, thank you. and anybody who has been through two of 15 states in the last six or seven movrnth, hard to imagie but some of them have not closed, but if you are going to florida, and south carolina and texas, they are running full steam as it is with everybody in a mask and how much of that is going to add to the economy, and it is a different side of the story that we don't talk about. thank you. >> thank you. >> thank you. ahead of the rally -- and

you are welcome -- and warren buffett said in the berkshire letter, and how should that affect your money? go to cnbc.com/pro for more. and now, the vaccinations are surging and the hospitalizations, and the deaths are collapsing, anden in the countries where they don't have the vaccine as well. and here is the latest vaccine tracker, and the biggest weekend yet with the cdc and bloomberg calculating 500 million shots done over saturday and sunday. the cdc says that 50 million americans have received at least one dose, 2 and million are fully inoculated and the key number, 20% of american adults have gotten at least one shot. the current trends, the cdc is projecting that new cases in the united states could fall below 25,000 in just a couple of weeks.

fingers crossed, let's hope. all of that is not even counting the big new johnson & johnson vaccine that was just approved and many are call it the one-shot game-changer. always a game-changer, meg tirrell, and she spoke with the company's ceo, and not to disspur for just the u.s., but for the world, meg. >> thank you, brian. johnson & johnson is going to be shipping 4 million doses of the newly authorized covid vaccine to the u.s. this week, and that is the third vaccine to enter the u.s. market after pfizer and moderna. it is different characteristics in that it is one dose, and can be stored in the fridge and it is efficacy with one shot, and 85% worldwide against severe disease there. is an ongoing meeting of advisers with the cdc and seeing where it might fit in with the

two. other considerations because it is one shot, and fridge stable, you can use it in other pop-up sites, and those sites without a freezer capacity, and for who might this make sense? for those who might be difficult to come back for the second dose, or those who want to be vaccinated quickly or who are is mobile, and don't want to come back. so we spoke to allan gorsky this morning about it. >> we saw the pernicious strains, and we saw 85% effectiveness rate in the severe disease which is important when you think of what you want from the vaccine. you don't want to go to hospital, and you certainly don't want to die. so what we have seen is 100% efficacy of those parameters

again with a single shot. >> and the message that you are hearing from the public health officials is to take whatever vaccine that you can take as soon as you can get it. the cdc is discussing the pfizer and moderna vaccines today. they are discussing the mrna vaccines and should they space it out to give more first doses to more people or/and or give one shot to those with prior infection because maybe there is enough prior protection with the existing immunity for the vaccine? nooet ser a go for the committee, but it is a way to continue to monitor it. back to you. >> thank you, meg. i will ask you the project a little bit, and we don't know the answer, so it is a guess, but great work from johnson & johnson, and all of the work from pfizer and moderna, and we could have 400 million doses

available in june or july, which is more americans than we need, so 30% of the country has said they will not take it. is it possible that we will have more supply than demand in certain areas? kind of soon i know it sounds ridiculous. >> if the companies meet the targets we will hhave 600 millin from pfizer and moderna, and 100 million from johnson & johnson, and so that is more americans than exist, and so dr. scott gottlieb was on "squawk box" of where to give the additional doses, and he says to mexico, our neighbors, and considerations for us as well. so absolutely, there is going to be more vaccines than people to take it in the u.s. at some point this year. >> or maybe canada, too, because the roll out has been 1/6 or 1/7 of ours, because they spaced

tout purchases, and a lot of to ka kanad a -- canadian friends up r are frustrated as well. thank you, meg tirrell. and now, logistics for this johnson & johnson vaccine are much different than the other two. frank is there with the story. >> the johnson & johnson vaccine needs half as many shipments, because as meg mentioned, it is one dose vaccine, but time is of the critical. because keeping the packaging and the packages viable as it expires in 96 hours. >> for us, the main issue is time in transit, because the thermal shipper that has the material in it, it is only validated for a certain number of hours, and so we have to be careful of the time in transit matches the time of the validation package. >> manufacturing begins in

maryland with a substance that is frozen at 60 below zero celsius, and then it is transferred to a plant in michigan and then thawed and placed in vials and taken to johnson & johnson for storstora. then it is taken to mckesson to be put into kits. then u.p.s. and fedex pick it up, and shipped globally. johnson & johnson is going to have the vaccine rollout by 40%, and fedex deserves more world delivery. >> we are going to the remote locations each and everyday already. so it is an additional shipment going into a remote location, and adds no level of complexity that we are not prepared for. >> and the vaccines continue to be profitable, brian. the emergence saw raising surges

as did mckesson and catalent. >> that is a great story. thank you. do you want to buy a home or re-fi the mortgage, and here is bad news, the time may have passed or maybe not, and we will tell you why. and we will look at diana olick to tell us the more about it. and also we will look at bitcoin with seema mody. and speaking of reopening, apple, all 270 bit stores in america are open at the same time for the first time since the lockdowns began last year. you talk about reopen. apple already is. dow is up 550 and the nasdaq is

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and welcome back to "the exchange" today and with the dow and the nasdaq and all of the stocks, they are soaring and home builder stocks are in that group as well, and they are moving higher this afternoon and

it is a rocky ride over the group for last few weeks as the rates have moved around and diana olick is in washington to explain why and what it might mean for the spring housing market, and diana, a spring housing market or one constant spring selling season? >> it feels like it, brian. we hope that there is a spring market, but the home builders are going higher with the broader markets but it is because of the slight pullback after the recent spike. the 30-year mortgage rate loosely follows. the rate where they last bo bottomed with the 30-year fixed is 2.8, and then it shot up landing at 3.27% last friday. today it did drop back to 3.22%, but if you are talking about taking out a $300,000 mortgage, it is a difference of about $75 a month on the monthly payment or nearly $1,000 a year, and that largely why you saw the

stocks with the big names of lennard and some of them coming off of the recent highs. home prices are incredibly hot, and construction is a premium r and the price of a new home was 5% in january year over census,o buyers are pinch and making the higher prices harder to afford, brian. >> i love the chopper, diana, because it is the money raining down from the fed with the interest rates. >> why not >> cue the helicopter over diana's head and the leaf blower, please. diana, that is how the live tv goes, it will happen on the 30 seconds that you are on tv. >> and now, we call it the g.o.a.t. trade, to get out and travel. and so, as we go to the pandemic finish line, it may not be too far off. and as the oil boom, so do some

of the electric car makers as well. looking at the shares of the company called tesla, and lee auto and nasdaq up 2.5%. we will be back right after this. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. the moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a short list of quality candidates from our resume database. claim your seventy five dollar credit, when you post your first job at indeed.com/home.

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we know that march has 600 days and at least it did last week, and today, march 1st, the solid day on the equity side as well, and treasury yields are taking a breather, and the johnson & johnson vaccine is set to hit the market, and the dow is up 700 and not there yet or again, but up 200%, and the nasdaq technology growth is growing. nasdaq up 2.5%, and 95% of the s&p 500 is actually higher. right now, all 11 sectors are in the green. you have energy, utilities, industrials, and they are leading the way, and wide range of industries leading the index gains in the dow, and you have boeing, and it is sooaring, and dow, dupont, and apple are open, and now the nike and etsy, and tv is the new discovery and the

best s&p 500 stock this year as one of them, and in the nasdaq 100, you have zoom going up, and centas the uniform maker, and investors are going to shopping as well. in retail, the xrtef, and footwear and nordstrom as well. and then after a rough week, the semiconductor roaring back with intel and oracle, and lam research all up 3 or 4 or more percent. pretty much, everything is up. all right. now, a cnbc news update with rahel solomon. and now, the option to reunite in the u.s. or the country of origin, and the

announcement from biden administration is to come today. and activists were arrested as part of china's attempt to tighten the city, and the protests stretched around the block, and included several foreign diplomats. auto regulators are investigating rav 4 vehicles for potential fire concerns around the 12 vote battery. that is the toyota's best selling model, they are cooperating. in new york, andrew cuomo said that women misinterpreted his behavior after two women said that he was harassing them. for more on the news, tune into shepard smith tonight at 7:00 p.m. i send it back over to you,

brian. >> thank you, rahel. you have citigroup, and dan loeb's sudden interest, and all of this has bitcoin surging up 3800 or nearly 9%, and so coming up, we will speak to largest bitcoin atm operator about the demand. energy is the story of the year, and the sector is leading once again up 30% this year, and oil and gas is booming as the oil prices rise, and we will look at the opportunities where they may or may not be a big head fake or real opportunity, and we will find out with dan pickering next.

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all right. welcome back to "the exchange," and happy monday. the dow is soaring and so is crypto kocoin, and bitcoin coul be the currency of choice one day, but is it a currency? most currencies don't move like this, and you can pay for stuff with it, we know, but why would you want to? well, seema mody tried and she tried to live on it for a week, and here is how it went.

>> reporter: four years ago, tried to live off of bitcoin. >> do you accept bitcoin >> no. >> reporter: i failed, because it was too hard to find anyone who accepted it. it was expensive, because to get a metrocard, i had to meet a guy, and pay him $20, and today it would be worth $270, and i a french salad now valued at $370, and tesla now starting to accept it as a payment method, i decided to put the cryptocurrency to the test again. in 2017, i could not buy coffee directly with crypto coin, but in 2021, it is possible as starbucks rolled out a limited program to allow the customers to reload with back cash a program to store bitcoin. so third-party apps to make it easier to spend, nordstrom, and

gamestop and lowe's, and you can scan the qr code and pay the dealer directly using cryptocurrency. according to flexa, it is for coffee and tea and other quick service items and bonus, no user fees, and what has not changed the work arounds and the gift card to have a access to wider retailers, but they come with the costly transaction fees. overall, people don't scview its a way to transact, but longer term investment. >> reporter: do you plan to hold it or -- >> long term. long term. >> or transact coffee -- >> long term. for now, long term. >> reporter: and the wild price swings were yet another reason that the bitcoin holders said they do not view it as a currency, but that could change if companies like paypal plan to transact with the network emergents. brian. >> i have a lot of questions, but not a lot of time, and could

we do it with ethereum or doge coin or an asset swap, because i won't call it a coin >> well, bitcoin is top of the list, and some accept ethereum, but it is bitcoin that you are starting to see the industry trying to adopt in a different way, and again, it is really paypal to see if they will allow the users to buy and transact and sell the bitcoin, but allow the user tos buy it to find stuff from merchant, and that is key for this industry. >> fascinating piece. you will do it in three years, right? >> next time, brian, you and i we will go to the streets of new york and buy coffee and eat french food. it will be so much fun. >> we will do it, and no masks and have a drink. it is going to be fantastic, and seema mody. t with telepathy

>> there we go. >> and seema has been ahead of the curve on this. it has been giving rise to bitcoin atms, and now, the largest bitcoin atms by adding more than 1,000 as the demand has surged, and daniel polotsky, and for the audience that is not initiated in the way of the crypto working and the breakdowns and the anchors as well, talk to us how you break down a bitcoin, and it is not like you go, hey, can i have change for $48,000 bill. there are different levels and the quarters and the nickels and the dimes of the bitcoin, and how does dit oes it work? >> yeah, thank you for having me on the show by the way. the smallest bitcoin is called a

shitoshi, and if you had to keep breaking it down, and the demand was so high for one bitcoin, you could add up the codes to make it further, and so it is more than a dollar or a bar of gold, you know. >> so if i wanted to go to one of the coin flip atms, i could both buy bitcoin and sell bitcoin and how would the transaction work >> well, most of the atms are buy only, because most people don't want to sell it is, but with reputting out more atms of the buy/sell, so it is super easy transaction, and walk one your phone number, and receive a code, and the scan the qr code, and we have a camera right there at them to scan it, an insert the cash, and get the bitcoin before you get back to the car, and to top it off, we have 24-hour customer service on the phone, and if you need help, we got you.

>> let me ask you a stupid question, daniel, you need the phone because of the wallet or -- from the privacy perspective, explain the role of the phone and the qr code because that is something that people are not used to in a quote normal atm transaction. >> it is like a bitcoin vending machine. so they are called the bitcoin atms, but the bitcoin is connect nod wallet, and the public key of how people can send you money. so you don't have to necessarily use a phone, but there are paper wallets connected to other wallets, but the typically easiest way is through the phone which is what our consumers typically do. >> yeah, we showed the map of the locations adding more than 1,000 and one near me, i might check it out. daniel p oosholotsky, thank your

coming on and explaining. >> thank you for having me on. >> sure. and now, the crudes are leading the market and they have been for the last few weeks. and now for the laggard, the fossils are dinosaurs, and guess what, they haven't been, and the next guest says that the rally may boom from here we will find out why. the nasdaq is up 2.5%. we are back after this. lot mor? so what are you waiting for? world's strongest man martins licis to help you break down boxes? arrrggh! what am i gonna do to you box? let me “break it down” for you... arrgggh! you're going down! down to the recycling center! >>hey, thanks martins! yeah, you're welcome. geico. switch today and see all the ways you could save.

this is decision tech. find a stock based on your interests >>hey, thanks martins! yeah, you're welcome. or what's trending. get real-time insights in your customized view of the market. it's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions. fidelity. all right. welcome back. well, energy stocks continue to climb despite a slight pullback in crude oil sit down 2%, but it is above 60. the oil and gas etf xop is up another 2% today posting the fourth straight positive month with a 25% gain in february and some big gains for big names, too, and exxon mobile up 21%, and jeffrey oven is joining the board to shake it up, and

halliburton is up, and 52% jump in february for occidental, and speaking to vicki hollob thursday as well so here is the question, are the opportunities in oil and gas passing us by? for more let's bring in dan pickering of pickering and partners. dan i was in your state, and of course, talking about the massive colossal failure of the energy grid. one of the takeaways from that was that as the biggest power producer in the united states and consumer, texas is going to be needing a lot more of everything to make sure it does not happen again, and whether it is wind turbines or solar, but maybe nat gas or dare i say nuclear. so what are the knock on e effects of what happened the last two weeks >> yeah, brian, good to be with you. i think that you are right. the knock on effects are going to be the realization that we need all of the above here in

texas, and in the u.s., as it is relating to sources of renewables, but everything. nuclear, natural gas, wind power, solar power, and we need it all it is going to be winterized and better, but it is not one or the other, but it has to be all. >> well, yeah, because what we have learned is that when something goes down, something else must pick up the slack, and sadly like everything else that could have been done, and intelligent, and it just became renewables, and fossils, and screaming at each other before we knew what happened. we all want large phones with huge air conditioning units and crank the ac all year, and if we want to do that and live in cities that are built on concrete and use energy, we are going to be needing a lot of everything, are we not

>> i completely agree and i wanted to say "right on, brother" as you said that. the world consumes 900 barrels of oil a day, and we won't wean off of that quickly, so that means that we need a lot of wind and solar and a lot of everything that if we want to consume the way that we consume. so we have to get away from being in one camp or the other, and figure out how to do it in a way that is environmentally friendly, and also economic. we have to get out of the mode of potentially creating poverty for thers. >> right we have to remember that there is a whole world who cannot afford a tesla or a car for that matter. and the stocks, there is a lot of short covering and, dan, up 70 or 80% in six months. any opportunity left >> i think that there is. we might be a little bit ahead of ourselves, a little bechlt we have an opec meeting coming up, and oils running to 50s, and if

it does, the stocks will be coming back some. and brian, oil is $50 or $60 over the next two to three year, and the companies' earnings are going to go up, and the value is going to up, so lots of room left here. >> yeah. dan pickering, and energy partners, and the next time that i get to texas, we will get together. thank you, dan. >> as i mentioned by the way, this thursday, we will be speaking with occidental ceo vicki hollow about this carbon neutral plan, and also the special envoy for climate of the u.s. john kerry. it is going to be a live stream, and you can register by going to

yoigsevents.com/evolvelivestream , and it is free, but you can play in bitcoin if you want. now, a very important story that is following up on texas that is getting no attention elsewhere, and it is a follow-up for the energy grid and the weather problems of the last couple of weeks. tens of thousands of people in and around jackson, mississippi, going on the third week without water. that is right. no water for more than two weeks. so let's call some attention to this. mississippi state representative ronnie kruddup jr., and he has a day care center, and we spoke to him yesterday on phone, and when i talked to him, i could not believe it, and some people pinged me while i was in texas, and is that true, that there are tens of thousands of people who are trying to flush their toilets with whatever might be left of melted snow? >> yes, that is true. we still don't have water. i had a little bit of water coming to my house yesterday, but today, it went back down,

and trickled, and thank god for the city providing some water trucks to get some flushable water, but, you know, it rained today, so we are depending on the rainwater and things of that nature to get water at this current moment. >> i want to be clear, we were in texas, and talking about the power grid. you had power, but it was the weather that caused the problem. i think that texas stole the attention which is why, thank you, sir, for coming on. has there been any indication of when the water is going to return you can't bathe or cook, and the restaurants are closed and the hotels are sold out, so what is happening on the ground in jackson right now? >> well, right now, it is a every man for himself. the city has stepped in. and we have had the state government stepping in, and fema is helping out, but at the current moment, people are trying to provide water bottles, and like i said, the tanker trucks are coming in to try to proside some flushable water,

and hopefully some water to wash the dishes with, but people are trying to find a way to eat, and survive mode in this current moment, but we are trying to do the best we can, and folks are stepping up to the crunch, and the church fos council folks, and businesses, and everybody is doing the part to help people survive and have what they need. >> i want to lay it out for the audience. jackson, you know, it is not big on the national scale, but it is one of the biggest cities in mississippi, and you can't cook without water for the most part, and you try the go out the eat, but a lot of the restaurants are closed because they may not have water or multiweights, and you want to go to hotels, but maybe you can't afford it, because getting a hotel for two weeks is expensive, and this is a dire situation, representative. any indication of when this going the be resolved? >> from the mayor to the city engineer, it is maybe towards tend of the week before it is

resolved. the problem is that date keeps changing, and no disregard to them, but this nothing of this magnitude. so like i said, we are trying to find a way to get e best we can to make things happen. >>ymcas have stepped up, offering people to take showers. helping neighbors for bathing. i sent my family to a friend's house, but my kids are still in school virtually, but my family needed a shower. >> listen, i appreciate you coming on. it's a tough situation thank you, sir keep us infirmed how it's going. a lot of companies out there to huge amounts of water -- if you're on the there and you have a lot of excess supply, get in

touch, we can try to arrange it. get the bottled water there. the local beverage distributor didn't even know, they sent their water to texas can you believe that we'll keep the conversation going. the goat trade, our pen, soaring as vaccinations pop. cruise line and airlines all bouncing consumer travel could happen again soon in fact royal caribbean saying that bookings this year are up 30% already. they expect a boomith w everybody getting back on the boats. tim seemymour is here to talk about it next.

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all right. well, the so-called goat trade is acting like a goat lately the get out and travel index is booming. investors betting on a return to normal sooner or later the average return 26% this year this year, spirit, hawaiian, skywest, american up 30%, 40%,

or 50% tim seymour, cnbc's "fast money" trader good to see you, buddy. >> hi, brian, good to be here. >> they don't have massive losses how do you look at this group? >> well, first, you have to understand which balance sheets are the most imperative. first american, and then you moved with the big three delta has the best balance sheet. so i think when you think about coming out of this, i think about the dynamics of big travel still impaired, where leisure travel will be 80%, 75-ish so look at the companies on an

ebitda basis, and i think delta ends up the best of the bunch, but remember, at the current price level, delta is probably trading at almost 95% of 2019 normalized earnings. i'm not sure that's exactly where you want to be i'm long delta, and would much rather by in delta than the rest of the big carriers. >> i heard kevin oleary on halftime, and suggested that some may go out of business. bankruptcy could be a real possibility for some of these carriers >> look, no question, who will be allowed to fail or et cetera, we've seen this industry continue to kind of go through periods where it has, you know, collapsed until the weight of too much expanse and balance sheets, even in the unexpected dynamic of covid there's been a lot of criticism how they handled their balance sheets

make no mistake, the travel dynamic coming out of the summer into the fall and obviously into next year is going to be a boom. i think the pentup demand will far exceed the expectations, to be honest. i think some of the ways i like to play it, hilton grand vacations, for example, which is more timeshare, and that's a total leisure business there's no exposure to business travel there it's an industry that was trading 40% cheap to the s&p coming in. it's about the same place now. >> hilton grand. maybe people want to be spaced out. good to see you, buddy we'll see you on "fast money" as well chge does it for us here on "the exan." "power lunch" starts after this quick break. have a great day the world around you may seem like an immovable, implacable place. it is not. it can be bright. quiet. and safe. it's a change that will be felt from this street. to this street. to no street. and everywhere in between.

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welcome, everybody, to "power lunch." a new month, a new week, and a big rally on weiall street contessa brewer will join us in a moment johnson & johnson out for delivery, and the house passing a stimulus package

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