tv Power Lunch CNBC March 4, 2021 2:00pm-3:00pm EST
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negative now for the year 2021, down more than 1%. take a look at apple the stock getting caught up in the big tech sell-off. it is now down more than 17% from its record high, which it hit just back in january for more, let's go to bob pisani mr. p? >> tyler, what is highlighted today is this increasing sensitivity of particularly big tech stocks, growth stocks, momentum stocks, whatever you want to call them, to interest rates. when interest rates tend to go up, the future cash value, the future earnings stream, tending to more problematic. bottom line -- tends to be more probl problematic. you can see it in semiconductor stocks like xilinx and micron. tesla has a monster comparative. they tend to pull down the
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overall indexes. again these are among the biggest momentum names out there. this is not a one-day phenomenon we have been dealing with this for several weeks. for example, the ipo etf, which was a monster earlier in this year, it's down 20% right now. biotech, another big monster down as well china was leading the world up to about two weeks ago, but now it's down 13%. elsewhere, if you look at some of the megacap stocks, the correction is even more noticeable i'm looking at stuff that tends to be appearing in the nasdaq 100 near, xilinx, some of the semiconductors down, apple down 18%. facebook hit a high quite some time ago, many months ago. amazon has been sideways for a while. where are we
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are we at some kind of inflection point the good news is the reopening narrative is intact. the vaccine roll-out is doing well, the reflation story is doing well that's the good news bad news is rising bond yields have essentially stopped the tech rally these are the most susceptible to a rise in interest rates. the etfs, we watched that track the big movers have essentially stopped. the issue now is how far is this rise going to go stocks are being moved around by the bond market. guys, back to you. >> to your point, the nasdaq is down 3.3%, down for the year 2.5 for the nasdaq you mentioned some of those high-flying growth-y, you can't even in some cases f frothy.
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what can we glean from the process? is it just selling across the board? algorithms going oaf something else >> that happens, but you'll see the defensive names, utilities, consumer staples, they're not down nearly as much today. health care, for example that's a sign that the overall basic market that's out there, the u.s. economy stuff straight ahead, is fine we've had big moves up in the reopening, what we call the reflation trade, industrials, material stocks overall. some of these may have gotten frothy as well not frothy like the big growth names, but some of these stocks moved dramatically in the last few months the reopening will happen. the question is whether or not freeport mcmoran has gotten a little ahead of itself when you gets days like today, people who vice president big profits, they say all right, you
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know what? let's lighten up a little. we'll see where it shakes out. it's understandable even with some of those big cyclical names, that you've seen a move to the down side. >> and you have both copper and gold under pressure today. bob pisani, thank you. let's check out the relationship between the ten-year and nasdaq today. but then the yieldsfell, but then fed chair jay powell spoke, spiking the ten-year yield sending tech lower steve, what more specifically the fed chair said that markets reacted to and why steve? >> morgan, good afternoon, a bit of a head scratcher about what fed chair powell might have said, with some of his comments very dovish and failure to commit to act to keep a lid on yields striking a very dovish tone when
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it comes to the outlook. among the things he said, he did note that he had seen the a -- previously, quote, caught my attention, and he struck a dovish tone, saying sometimes it will achieve -- and adding to that, saying the fed is not going to hike just because the labor market is strong powell essentially reiterated comments he had previously made that higher inflation is coming, but believe it would be temporary and not a reason for the fed to act preemptively. >> businesses and people would need to believe that larger increases in prices would be repeated year after year the more likely that it would be one-time effects >> effect to act to lower had risen to the point that failure
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to embrace sparked the sell-off. >> yeah, steve, along those lines, it kind of raises the question has the market been right to expect the fed to act especially this was a "wall street journal" effect, it wasn't like it was a fed meeting. >> yeah, i think it got frothy in its expectations for powell to act they say it's right, they can do this, but they're far from ever actually doing this right now. if powell were to act to tamp down long-term bond yields, he would not have the full support of the board at this point is my read i think they expect -- as powell said, by the way, yields to rise the idea they're having -- that there's an expected rebound in the economy, they would certainly expect yields to rise back up to the 1.75 to 2% level
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that we had before the pandemic. maybe not quite that high in this go-around, but that could be their expectation they're not spooked by this, and not close to acting, but i think the market got ahead of itself believes that the fed was about to act >> steve, thank you very much for more on the market sell-off, let's bring in mike labellea solutions, and salary grant. let me start with you. the market sells off the way it has been, the nasdaq down 10%, negative for the year. is it a buys opportunity in your view if so, what would you be buys? >> i think certainly it can present some buying opportunities. really the key themes i'm focused on are the reopening opportunities, rising rates and
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climate change as i think about reopening, there are lots of stocks in the consumer discretionary sector that did not benefit from the work-from-home phenomenon. all of the focus was on electronic commerce, streaming, those types of investment opportunities. as we saw this morning, with burlington, right, which reported very strong numbers, that there is opportunity to be had in some of these companies that had been quite beaten up and underperform i think consumer discretionary stocks, if you look at them selectively, is an opportunity also, if you look at industrials, i think the previous guest mentioned that as well industrials -- it's a sector that had underperformed, but i think there are opportunities there in this current environment as bell. the many of those ironically are very well positioned as it relates to climate change. several of the companies that i
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have in our portfolio have taken tangible steps to adapt their businesses to k4r50i789 change one example would be waste management, because they actually capture emissions and reuse the emissions to power their fleet of trucks. finally you can't forget about financials in a rising rate environment. it sends to be favorable for financials, and there we own a number of banks, one of which i think is particularly interesting is citi. they benefit from rising rates, as do their peers, but they also have a fresh new management team so i'm very excited and interested in hearing what jane frazier is going to do, now that she's at the helm of that organization, and probably, i think, making some strategic moves as she completes her strategic review. >> an interesting post, a lot of people will be watching her as she becomes the first female to lead a major bank.
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she says value has more room to run, you like financials, you like industrials, as does valerie. tell me, though, why -- tell me why, daddy, industrials and financials and value does better we interest rates rise than growth why is that? >> sure. what we're looking at right now is the tough of war between rising growth expectations, which gets the markets and equities really excited and rising rates, which can be very carey for the market and think that it might affect the growth rally. now, when we think about the sensitive of underlying sectors, rising rates are often associated with rising growth. so if rates are rising because the economy is improving, the economies are opening up, we're moving out of lockdown state, that will be broadly supportive. to the businesses that would be supportive to are the businesses that did poorly last year.
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think about sectors in financials, industrials, pretty much anything outside of technology and the large tech names. from an earnings standpoint they got completely destroyed last year, that will recover. so the major concern here now is, will rising rates be orderly, or will it be disruptive what we're likely to see is this back-and-forth over the market is likely to continue, which means volatility will be here for some time, but powell coming occupy basically saying we're a long way from reaching the fed's unemployment goals they're essentially telling you the inflation expectations is going to be transitory, and they're telling us they're going to look past it, means there probably will be a cap as to how far rates are going to go. it's not going to stall the overall economy. what's likely is it will stall
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the growth trade, which really has built much more sensitive to rates. so this is an opportunity to shift into these pro-cyclical and value-oriented sectors that really struggled last year. >> yeah, valerie, i realize that the fed chair didn't give any kind of indication -- in fact it was quite the contrary today, you know, that the fed is looking to step into the bond market in some way despite the expectations we can't see something like operation twist, but if that were to change, if we continued to see dramatic moves and very fast-moving moves in treasuries, what would something like operation twist or some other sort of implementation of new policy or different policy means to the investment thesis you just laid out? >> i don't think it would change the thesis at all. the approach i take is to try to maintain a balanced set of exposures across multiple set of
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factors. it's not as if i plan to refocus on value opportunities i think it's important to maintain a balance when people talk about diversification, obvious times that is interpreted to mean across sectors i think it's important to maintain diversification across the different factors unfortunate in the portfolio that tends to minimize some of the volatility you can experience from moves and changes in monetary policies and other actions that are outside of your control, if you will, as a portfolio manager, or even as a manager of a company. >> valerie, thank you for your time mike, same to you. we'll see you again soon take care. >> thank you. ylan mui has news on the federal debt and definite at this time. ylan >> morgan, the nonpartisan congressional office released its long-term forecast, saying
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the national debt will be twice the size of the economy by 2051. it already projected a record height in 2031, now it says the debt would double over the next two decades to 202% of gdp they do not include the impact of the covid relief package that's still making its way through congress, but the cbo did warn that a growing debt could earn the risk of a fiscal crisis and higher inflation and undermine confidence in the u.s. dollar on the definition, the cbo found it would decline over the next few years, but would rise again in subsequent decades, raing 13.3% in 2051. most of that growth is due to bigger net-interest payments they're expected to triple between 2031 and 2051. reps also expected to rise this 2025, and a growing share of
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income pushed into higher tax brackets the cbo did say that research will not grow as fast as spending back to you. >> the issue here, in part, is if interest rates go up, how much more we're going to have to spend just to service the debt, is going to mean a lot of other things aren't going to be able to be financed >> well, that's right. that's why they're finding there would be some obviously crowding out of private investments as interest rates rise and as the amount of the federal budget that's spend on interest paymentsing ins as well. the good news is they were expecting the economy to improve as well, so rising gdp will also be part of that story, but it's clear the fiscal impact of the pandemic will be with us for a very, very long time >> yeah. i mean, just to that point, with a 1$1.9 trillion fiscal package
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i wonder how much weight this holds? >> that's misthe critical is waiting for. one thing we know is the package cannot be more than $1.9 trillion or else republicans could block that bill. that's one of the final pieces they're waiting on, to be able to understand some of the long-term fiscal implications of this it's also one of the reasons the cbo sort of broke up its projections. normally it releases its economic and budget outlook all the at the same time, but they wanted to make sure lawmakers had what they need ed as they went forward ylan, thank you very much. we'll continue to follow the fallout in the tech sector energy and utilities are right now the only sectors in the green. utilities just barely so check out some of the momentum etfs, arrk among the wreck an
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today, and the buzz etf just launched under pressure. we'll have more on that with the ceo of van eck, right after this break. we see harnessing natural gas unleashing the promise of cleaner energy. at emerson, we advance the safety and efficiency of the lng industry to meet the world's need for reliable, affordable electricity. emerson. consider it solved.
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the arkk innovation fund is around 26% off its eyes. van eck's new etf is down around 5% here now is van eck associates' ceo. good to see you, sir. >> good to see you. >> tell us about what the etf tracks, and whose ink detection is it? >> sure. well, there's a whole phenomenon of social media, and there are millions of investors who comment on stocks in social media, so it terms where the tweets are positive or negative, and it takes the top -- these are all big-cap stocks, and it puts it in that index.
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we as an etf manager track that index. >> so what it does, it looks for stocks that are getting positive commentary online, in chat rooms, in the media as well? or would folks like cnbc not be sucked up by your algorithm, by the big vacuum cleaner >> it's looking at social media, but of course you affect social media. >> who set up this index or did you >>s a very smart money management shop in toronto, canada, has been looking at this phenomenon for many years. the index started in 2015 actually, and they use natural language processing and machine learning to process all these millions of signals, and came up with this counidea i will say the concept that
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there's some kind of information, some value in social media is something that hedge funds and academics have appreciated for quite a while. >> as you look at this index and compare it, or you back-test it, obviously your etf came out today, if you compare it to the programance, how does it do as you look backwards >> so the good news is the index has live since that 2015 time period, so this isn't academic research they were publishing their constituents every month since that time period so over that time period, it's done very well again the s&p, of course that's historical performance, but bead by about 10% a year >> i'm curious when you look at some of the names that have been moved the most, mentioned the most, just since the start of this year, they tend to be very volatile.
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they tend to be smaller-cap names. what is going into this index and how you are navigating some of that very intense volatility we have seen in some of those stocks. >> thank you for asking, this is not a meme stock index there are several rules that the index follows to protect some of those small caps from getting in first of all, a company needs a $5 million market cap -- >> $5 million or billion >> billion thank you for correcting me. it's hard to start manipulating a mid cap or large-cap stock it doesn't just capture short bursts of messages it really looks over a 12-month period for eligibility for a stock into the index so of the large-cap stocks, only about 250 to 300 are eligible for the top 75 on any given month. >> i'm curious, it's under
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pressure, right, first day of trading, we have this broad are market sell-off as well, growth, anything moment-y is get hit particularly heart today given the rising interest rate verb the even more historic lows that we were at just a couple weeks ago, if you feel like the timing of this was place of business not as fortuitous as planned? >> well, you know, we try to offer unique exposures, so we looked at that if you look at some of the names, carnival, ford, ge, they're kind of turnaround names, i would say, so yes, i would say -- what we said in november of last year is that, you know, the obvious is obvious, meaning interest rates at 80 basis points on the ten-year are only going to go
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up we projected 1.5% to 2% this year, so more of a year for main street than wall street, but you have to have time on your side as an investor this may not have been the best day, but you own stocks for the longer term, i think you'll be happy. >> let me try to hit two questions at one time. with respect to this etf based on an index, what is the turnover rate of the fund? and what are the expenses? that's number one. two. give me your thoughts on what's going on in the market today and the past couple weeks? >> well, the index is reconstituted every month. it wants to be timely. the average stock is in the din detection for about four months. look, i think there will be a tough of war within the
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portfolio. stocks, i think will be okay in the rising rate environment. what it reflects is global growth i think it's fixed income that's more the challenge part. but, you know, i think, look, equities will be volatile this year, but i think it won't be as last year, but where you want is equity exposure. >> you have such a collection, and just this major trend of more passive trading in general as proliferated. there has been in recent year, has led to sharper moves, more volatility in the market here. what is your response? >> you know, i don't think it's passive investing. i think it's technology. you know, what i was really worried about -- because i think this growth sell-off was really
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predictable. my only concern is it was going to be even more violent and rapid, and as we saw last march, selloffs can happen very, very quickly, which is why you want to make sure your portfolio is well positioned and you can ride out something like that, because you can't act faster than the market, is my feeling. we knew it was going to be choppier weather this year, and you better be set for it frankly, i consider this kind of to be an orderly sell-off, which to me is a bit of a relief >> jan van eck, thank you very much we appreciate it. >> thank you. we'll continue to follow it as the nasdaq turns negative for the year the dow is coming back a bit the semistocks, down 5%. we'll have more on the chips are we'll have more on the chips are down after this quick break.
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we have come back a bit, as you can see, on the dow. we're about 1.5% we want to show you some examples of what's selling off the momentum names, tesla, peloton, cloud flair, also the reopening stocks are doing well relative cruise lines are getting crushed. airlines also with big losses across the board right now retail stocks are holding up burlington says it's doubling the long-term store target to 2,000. american eagle is reinstating the different and stock buyback program. tyler? ahead on "power lunch," the nasdaq is lower, entering correction territory now one technician says the nasdaq is approaching a key level which could mean more selling ahead. we'll be right back.
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could suffer long-term heart damage research by the nation's major sports leagues purchased of almost 800 pro athletes who tested positive between may and october of last year, only 0.5 of 1% show ed -- and the governor of texas rejects president biden's bon that his decision is neanderthal thinking. >> texans should continue to wear a mask. the difference is for a year now, texans as well as americans have learned the safe standard is to wear a mask. because they know that standard, do they really need the state to tell them what they already know for their own personal behavior?
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>> researchers say there's a dramatic correlation between covid deaths and obesity around the world. covid fatality rates are ten times higher in nations where at least half the adults are overweight, like the understanding and great bring. back to you, morgan. thank you, contessa. markets are in sell offmode. keep in mind it was down as many as 722 at the lows of the session. the nasdaq also under a lot of pressure, the underperformer on the say, also off the lows, but see a lot of those big-cap tex names really leading the charge. the sell-off was sparked by the sharp move back above 1.5% every sector in the s&p is in the red with the exception of energy, which brings us to the oil market which is close for the day. for that we go tod dom chu
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>> you have u.s. benchmark west texas intermediate, $64.27, off the session highs, by the way. world bench-day-old mash brandy crew futures moving to the up side and the up side is being driven largely by global can be and its partner conditions like opec-plus as its known there were records yesterday they're possibly looking to extend production constraints. we got confirmation the group said they would keep supply levels steady through april, and saudi arabia said it would extend its cut into then as well russia and kazakhstan are two exceptions, being allowed modest increases. thank you very much, dom
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today's jump in oil prices continues this year's huge rally for energy stocks. it's the only positive sect roor northerly sector actually outperforming the ten solar etfs since the blue wave election in november that's stock nearly doubling off its lows last year while maintains a dividend yield of 6% here is what the ceo had to say on "squawk box" earlier. >> 2020 was obviously a very transformative year, with the pandemic impacting all of us and put significant constraints on the business, the worst environment i think our industry has ever seen, certainly the worst our company has ever faced, with all three of our businesses at the very bottom of cycle conditions we're going to continue to return cash to shareholders
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through a very strong dividend. >> transformative year, that's saying it. for more on the future of energy, tune into cnbc's evolve livestream where brian sullivan will speak with vicki hollub and john kerry >> it will be a must-watch right there. the semis are getting hit particularly hard. the nasdaq is down more than 10%, also turning negative for the year semi's etf falling around 6% today. c.j., just your thoughts on why we are sealing such selling pressures, given the fact they are tied so closely to economic growth and recovery story.
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>> the stock was up 15% just three days ago also, looking ahead, you know, we're in a pro-cyclical world. i think this is a great buying opportunity. i would tell investors to get their shopping list ready, and now is the time to add nothing has change the fundam fundamentally. >> what should that shopping lift included? >> three best areas, and within mem re, micron, and in semi-cap, and then in analog nxp and adi are our favorites.
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just given the fact, expanding this out more broadly, we have seen they shortages. on the one hand maybe it giving some of them pricing power, but on the other hand how much of those delays and the impact that the supply-chain himups are having could affect those companies? >> i don't think we can do much better than that, gimp how long it takes to bring on new supply. what that means is a longer for stronger cycle we're two quarters into recovery so, you know, i think it's way too earlier to be given up on this group, particularly secularly how important each group is. >> how long do you see the
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supply/demand imbalance lasting? >> you know, it takes a year and a half, two years to bring brand-new capacity we could add on to margins, but given the growth youth look across over of the different subsegments, i would ar we would be tight into 2022 >> you know, there's areas that probably won't do as well, you know, i think the handset trade is -- is, you know, well into the story lining, so the infrastructure side there, but otherwise, no, i think, you know, the group is primed to move higher. >> thank you for joining us today. >> you're welcome. we're going to go to the bond market. rick santelli is tracking the
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action at the cme. rick >> what a wild day keep in mind one of the reasons you see ten-year note yields, 30s are up three, 10s are up seven. traders are trying to get even if you look at a year to date of 10s, our current high close, right towards the end of february is 152. right now it looks like we'll put that away and come up with a fresh close going back to february and if you look at 30s, pretty similar situation. 228 from the 25th of february, zoom the chart back, that chart is going to read about a 14-point high close as we're hovering at about 231. if you consider that jay powell has been the catalyst to this, or his talk about, many were asking what happens with the dollar index
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well, we have a nice clue. it's stronger. look, it looks to close potentially at the highest levels since november. let's call it a three-month high tyler, back to you. >> why does it move? it moves up, for people who don't understand it, it would move up on the prospect that interest rates will move up, correct? >> absolutely. you know, in a simple form, the higher rates are good for currency of the country of rates moving higher. this time it is. >> all right rick, i was just curious we're very focused on what's going on here in the u.s. and treasury market, but we have seen those rates, those yields climb up in other markets as well is it the same situation, as the balances of potential inflation spikes, stimulus versus economic recovery and growth? >> absolutely. whether you look at bunds, all
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good sovereigns are moving higher in yield and really the driving force. debt, debt, debt everybody can't keep racing debt to try to save their economies sooner or later we're going to run out of people or investors to scoop some of that paper up rick, thanks very much as those interest rates spike today, tech stocks did what else they sold off. the nasdaq lower now for the year up next one of our traders seeing it near a crushed level we will explain what that means next, on "power lunch. i made a business out of my passion. i mean, who doesn't love obsessing over network security? all our techs are pros. they know exactly which parking lots have the strongest signal. i just don't have the bandwidth for more business. seriously, i don't have the bandwidth. glitchy video calls with regional offices?
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comments by jerome powell, one of our next guests says there's a key level to watch matt, i was just looking at the nasdaq14,175 on february 16th. it has dipped below 13,000 what's the next level to watch >> we have to watch 13,000 we have the unemployment number coming out tomorrow morning. if that can cause the yields to come back down maybe the tech stocks can come back and that would be helpful the 13,000 is a key support level. if you look at the chart, it is doubly important two things number one the trend line going back almost a full year to the march lows of last year, it is also the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. head and shoulders patterns, if
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they are broken tend to signal a change in trend. on the qqqs, the things you can really trade that level is 310 if we don't get a bounceback over the next two days and we keep moaningfully below those levels i think that tells us we need a downside before the bottom of the selloff, which has been 10% already. >> as we figure out how ugly the selloff could get, what douz for the technology sector. >> you are looking at a fair value of 20 times. it probably won't get that low because forward estimates for earnings are still expecting 28% earnings growth next year. i don't think we necessarily have to fall all the way back to 20 but the difference between 30 and 20 is a big difference in terms of a percentage fall. >> worth noting, facebook and alphabet are higher on the day gene skpa matt, thank you. for more trading nation head to
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our website and follow us on twitter. the post powell selloff continuing, but dow is now down only about 300 points cutting its worst loss this is half for the trading session so far the nasdaq getting hit hardest, down 1.5%. some of the biggest decliners, twitter, tesla we will tell you why tesla stock specifically is tumbling that's going to be next on "power lunch."
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phil lebeau joins us with more. >> tesla getting hit like all the high multiple stocks today people saying not sure that valuation makes sense in this environment. look at what happened in the last three days. the stock was trading up around 710, $715. now down at 621. at one point today it was down at 605 we are not just seeing this with tesla. it is all the ev stocks. they are all getting whacked they are coming back just a little bit today but across the board they are all down between 4 and 9%. earlier today on "squawk box," tesla bull ron barren, who has long been bullish on this company -- he has been right, but he has trimmed his position a bit. here's what he said on "squawk box. >> in the past six months, we have sold about 1.7 million out of our 8 million shares that we held and we told them between 450 and $900 a share, average, 660, and
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670. so we still own 75% of our stock. i am hopeful we hold that for a very long -- actually, more than 75%. i am hopeful that we can hold that for a number of years. >> let's be clear, ron barren is still very bullish on tesla. he told the squawk crew this morning he could see the stock going up over 2,000, $2,500. if you look at the market cap, at one point it was a market cap well over $700 billion, now under $600 billion quite a week for tesla investors as they have watched the stock really take it on the chin back to you. >> is there any way to pull out of tesla, or tesla stock, the effect that the big ownership of bitcoin has on it, or has had on it, or is there no way to know >> i don't know if there is no way to know. i have not seen anybody do it where you come away and say that makes sense.
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i have heard theories but nothing that makes me say okay we can extrapolate and come to a conclusion. >> you mentioned other ev makers, neo? fisker >> fiskars, lortstown motor is in there we put quantum escape in there, they are working on solid state batteries, key to the electric vehicle growth in the future all the ev stocks have had a heck of a run within the last couple of months some have been coming public in the last couple of months. they have been moving higher, substantially higher so it is not surprising that as tesla gets hit they are hit as well. >> phil lebeau reporting from chicago. quite a day. >> i wanted note some of those names are names that went public via spac in general a high flying part of the market you are seeing some of those spaces, whether deals closed or not, also under pressure on a
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day like today. >> let's look at energy stocks, why don't we, because they are way up off their lows as one might expect the world needs energy, one way or another there is the s&p energy index. in the past six months, it's up 46.3%. and some of the stocks that were left by the wayside, like diamondback, eog, marathon -- in fact, energy one of the few sectors that are up today. >> we have been focusing a lot on tech, recent days, the fact it has been a tech and a growth selloff. some of the names that have been pandemic darlings, et ceteray, shopify, peloton, those names are under pressure however some of the mega cap tech names, the so-called fang names and the like are climbing back from the lows of today's session along the broader market alphabet, facebook, amazon just going flat as well from
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negative, too. >> it is an interesting day because of what the fed chair said. >> that's right. >> his remarks about intrarates and inflation and so forth that was one of the things that was factoring into today's trade. as you see there, the dow is now off just 304 points. nasdaq, though, negative for the year morgan, good to be with you. >> good to be with you, too. we have an hour left of trade. for that, we are going to go to "closing bell," which starts right now. thanks for watching. and we will pick it up, morgan and tyler, thank you. welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen with wilfred frost. a calmer market this morning quickly giving wti a frenzied selloff in the arch, the major averages making a sharp move lower following comments from fed chair jay powell nasdaq dipping negative for the year let's look at what's driving the action fed chair jay powell raising the specter of inflation at a "wall street journal" conference this afternoon saying the e
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