it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters, and here are your top five at 5:00. we begin with fed chairman jay powell giving investors new reason to worry, failing to reassure markets over rising inflation pressures, sending stocks on a wild ride, the dow down its third day in a row, futures pointing to a lower open, and a black eye for big tech as the nasdaq enters correction territory for the first time since last year now turning to washington, new delays and new addendums in president biden's 1$1.9 trillio

stimulus bill, and the movie magic is back in the big apple today. what one theater operator has to say about the path forward it's friday, march 5th, 2021, and you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc ♪ bring it on bring on the weekend ♪ ♪ bring it on bring on the weekend ♪ >> i'm frank holland in for brian sullivan let's kick off your friday morning with a look at the stock futures right now. all three of the indexes in the red. all down just about a 1/2% in the early trade. stocks coming off a down day yesterday after fed chairman jay powell failed to reassure investors the central bank, the dow ending down some 300 points after falling more than 700 earlier in the session the dow is down three days in a row and on pace for its second down week in a row it's not just the blue chips the nasdaq is coming off the third straight losing session.

the nasdaq and the nasdaq 100 now off more than 10% from recent 52-week highs hit back in mid february we call that correction territory. big tech is down tesla down 11% zoom, down 10% netflix down 66% apple down 2%. let's take a look at the ten-year we have been watching it very closely all this year. right now at about 1 1/2%, 1.552. something to watch it's up 70% year to date we're going to talk much more about that later in the show first, let's go worldwide. our matt taylor is standing by in singapore joumanna bercetche is standing by in the london newsroom. we're going to kick things back to you on this friday morning. we're going to talk about the new gdp target in china. >> absolutely, frank happy friday wasn't a happy friday for the markets across the asia pacific. we did have declines across the

board averaging about a 1/2% japan down 0.2%. the shanghai market ending the session flat we did of course have the national people's congress today, and unexpectedly china put a target on gdp for 2021 growth of 6%, and the premier vows to create 11 million urban jobs in 2021 in australia, we did have the oil majors moving sharply higher, santos up by 4% on the back of opec not doing anything when it came to production cuts. that sent the price of oil up, and we saw some of the mining stocks move higher in australia. back to you, frank. >> turning to the early trailed in europe. joumanna bercetche is standing by in our london newsroom. hi, frank, more red on the board today for european, the second day in the row

is on track to end in positive territory, 1.2%. strong start to the week, not so much in the last couple of trading days ftse 100, down two percentage points, we're focused on the london stock exchange trading as low as 5% lower on the session despite better than expected results. a bit of a surprising one there. france, down about 7/10, dax in germany, down about 9/10 of a percentage point despite better industrial production rates coming in for the month of january. i want to turn your attention to italy. there's been a lot of talk about what's happening not necessarily on the financial front but the diplomatic front overnight, italy has announced they have imposed a shipment ban of astrazeneca vaccines going to australia, this has sparked a diplomatic row between italy and australia. it's having an impact on astrazeneca. the stock is down about 4/10 of

a percentage point, and by the way, it's not just italy we have also heard some comments from the french health ministry this morning they too are considering vaccine export bans as well. so this is a really hard line approach that the eu seems to be taking with astrazeneca and with the rollout of the vaccine, and could have huge implications of course from an international perspective but it just underlines something we have been talking about a lot, frank, which is that the europeans are really struggling with the logistics of rolling out the vaccine, and these are one of the measures they're having to come up with to help boost the situation back homement something we're monitoring very very closely over here those logistics a challenge globally thank you for the latest. turning our attention back to the u.s. and washington the senate taking a major step forward in passing president biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package. approval could come as early as this weekend nbc's tracie potts joins us now from washington with that and

more much. good morning, tracie. >> hi, frank, good morning, everyone it came after the senate clerk spent all night literally until 2:00 a.m. reading all 628 pages of this bill that means this morning lawmakers will start debating it, and offering amendments, the changes that they want to see while the president focuses on the economy with new unemployment numbers coming out today. >> thank you all for coming on in >> reporter: president biden gets an update on the economy today and joins a round table supporting his american rescue plan as new numbers show how many americans are not working the government reports 18 million people are drawing unemployment checks, as the senate considers limiting who gets $1,400 direct payments. >> comfortable with having to limit the direct payment >> yes >> the clerk will continue the reading. >> reporter: debate on the american rescue plan starts this morning after the clerk. >> and other related activities.

>> reporter: read all 628 pages of the bill. >> the vast majority of this has nothing to do with covid relief. >> state and local governments need assistance now to keep cops on the beat, to keep teachers, you know, firefighters employed. >> count me out for a $1.9 trillion spend fest unrelated to covid. >> reporter: today, democrats and republicans offer amendments to add or take away from the plan >> i will be offering an amendment to raise the federal minimum wage from $7.25 an hour. >> the president's plan is massively excessive, it needs to be focused on where need is real. >> reporter: the need is real, but lawmakers disagree on how to deal with it now, senate leaders have agreed to cut the debate today from 20 hours down to just three so frank, that means by this afternoon, we should start seeing them introduce those

changes. >> tracie, thank you for the latest. turning our attention outside of d.c., let's get to some of the other top headlines this morning we begin with vaccine news, reports that the pfizer plant being use d to boost production has seen repeat quality control violations an inspection report obtained by bloomberg shows fda investigators say they found the company released medications from its macpherson based plant without revealing quality issues that have come up during testing. the investors found signs of bacteria and mold at the plant in areas that should have been sterilized. occidental ceo says she does not believe oil production will return to pre-pandemic levels. on a conversation with brian sullivan, most companies have committed to value growth rather than production growth because of that shift, holob does not envision the company returning to 13 billion barrels

a day. off its highest settle cathie woods arc invasion is in the red. the flagship fund that has dropped 24% from its all time high, including a 5% drop yesterday wiping out almost $23 billion in gains it had seen since the start of the year. some of the biggest holdings, include tesla, as well as square and roku. some investors pricing in the $1.9 trillion stimulus package and looking ahead to president biden's next policy push cnbc.com's pippa stevens reads the tea leaves for the energy stocks. much more on tech's move into correction, we speak to one investor who remains as bullish as ever and why raising rates may be one-half of the double usg my hitting the spring

hoinmarket a busy hour ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns (vo) ideas exist inside you, electrify you. they grow from our imagination, but they can't be held back. they want to be set free. to make the world more responsible, and even more incredible. ideas start the future, just like that.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the $1.9 trillion stimulus package is winding it way through the senate and people are already looking ahead to what could be president biden's next big push. cnbc.com reporter, pippa stevens is here with much more, good

morning, pippa. >> hey, frank, good morning. the thinking here is that once the current stimulus package is passed, then the administration can shift its focus to other areas like infrastructure and climate. of course both policy agendas for biden, he unveils that $2 trillion climate plan last year that includes heavy investment into renewables, carbon free power by 2035, net zero emissions by 2050 so huge growth opportunity ahead of course nothing is certain yet but these are definitely pillars of his agenda, and there is a lot of opportunities for companies exposed to this theme, so analysts at barclays this week pegged the total addressable market for renewable power generation at $4.5 trillion. they also see a huge uptick in electric vehicle sales, less than 2% penetration today in north america to 46% by 2035 just a lot of growth here for companies exposed to this theme. >> a lot of opportunity being

seen here, but what do people need to know before they invest in this space? >> well, the first thing is that it's not necessarily for the faint of heart after a monster 2020 that saw clean energy stocks just absolutely skyrocket, they have been hit by some pretty big weakness in recent weeks, of course along with the selloff in other growth areas of the market, but the sources i have spoken with say that the fundamental story remains in tact the earnings growth is there, and a pull back of this nature was to be expected after the absolutely huge gains of 2020. so frank, getting down to the specifics, there's a lot of names for investors to have on their radar. barclays pointed to names like sunrun, and active and goldman sachs was out with a note this week saying they foresee residential solar growing between 10% and 20% annually they like names like sonova and

end stage energy. we have to talk about the recent power crisis in texas what does that mean for the renewables in 2021 >> yeah, that's a great question officials of course are still gathering data and figuring out exactly what happened, and then how a disaster of this nature can be avoided in the future, but one of the typical short-term impacts we do see after an event like this is an up tick in demand for storage. customers are saying if they can't rely on the utilities company to have the light on, they want to take matters in their own hands. i spoke to the ceos of two publicly traded solar companies in the last week both have seen a jump in storage sales already. and the uptick is not focused exclusively on texas people in other parts of the country are saying they want to ensure power reliability going forward. so definitely an up tick in solar and storage demand here. >> great report there.

pip pa stevens f from cnbc.com. that name and more stocks to watch coming up when "worldwide exchange" returns. today's big number 40%. that's the share of all jobs lost to the pandemic since last year were tied to the leisure and hospitality industry according to the u.s. travel association. the current unemployment rate in leisure and spaly hoititis nearly three times the overall rate what if you could have the perspective to see more? at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view.

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and welcome back to "worldwide exchange," let's get a check on some of the stocks on the move today. we begin with imax, shares down more than 2% after reporting a 4th quarter loss on lower revenue but a box office surge in asia has a continuing hit to its north american theaters. gross profits rose 25% during the golden week holiday in china. turning now to broad come, shares are lower after company's chip sales fell shy of analyst estimates. software sales forecast, and earnings and revenue, broadcast ceo pointing to strong bookings, saying customers are placing orders far out, and it's virtually booked for the entire year turning to costco, actually down this morning after fourth quarter revenue rising 15%, and same store sales by 13% as

consumers continue to shop for food and household goods during the pandemic profit fell below forecasts, pl partly due to costco paying for workers to $16 an hour for a check on this morning's other headlines outside the world of money and business, a former state department aide during the trump administration has been arrested in connection with the pro trump riot at the u.s. capitol on january 6th, according to an fbi spokesperson federico klein was arrested in virginia, but the fbi would not discuss the case documents, however, obtained by nbc news allege that a man later identified as klein was seen on video assaulting washington, d.c. police officers and u.s. capitol police officers. president biden, he called off an air strike against a second target in syria last week due to concerns about possible civilian casualties a defense official told nbc news instead, only one target was bombed in the operation which came in retaliation for recent

rocket attacks on u.s. personnel that the pentagon blamed on iranian backed shiite militia. biden cancelled the strike on the target at the last moment after the military spotted a woman and a couple of kids in a courtyard at one of the sites. spice up your look chipotle says it's partnering with elf for a vegan and cruelty free makeup line they will sell four limited edition makeup products with an eyes chips face bowl at chipotle it includes an eye shadow palette with classic chipotle ingredients, and lip gloss, and extra gloss face sponge set will be available still ahead, rate risk, powell's next move and today's february's jobs report. rbc's tom porcell breaks down what you need to know before you

start your day if you miss "worldwide exchange" check us out on apple, spotify and other podcast apps "worldwide exchange" will be right back dad, i'm scared. ♪♪ it's only human to care for those we love. and also help light their way. ♪♪ it's why last year chevron invested billions of dollars to bring affordable, reliable, ever cleaner energy to america. ♪♪

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at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings. under pressure, futures pointing to more losses after stocks suffer another selloff amid rising beyond yields. that rate story a big deal for the housing industry we'll talk about the risk heading into the important spring selling season. the path forward, states and

cities across country reopen from the pandemic lock downs new york city movie theaters welcome back customers today we're going to talk to a top exec from a cinema chain, it's friday, march 5th, 2021, you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc ♪ welcome to new york it's been waiting for you ♪ ♪ welcome to new york welcome t new york ♪ >> and welcome back, i'm frank holland in for big papa brian sullivan let's take a look at how stock futures are looking halfway through the 5:00 a.m. hour a sneak peek here, all in the red. the dow indicating it's going to open up much lower, as much as 50 points lower, sorry, 61 points lower the s&p and nasdaq also in the red. the major averages coming off a broadly weaker session yesterday with the dow closing down more than 300 points, and the nasdaq and the nasdaq 100 going negative on the year and into correction territory down more than 10% from recent 52-week highs. the move lower for stocks comes as yields continue to surge, and

that's despite fed chairman's jay powell's assurance the central bank would do all it can in its power to keep inflation under control. not helping powell's case, energy prices, they continue to rise crew coming off its highest settle since april of 2019 oil right now at about $65 a gallon sticking with the markets, tech's weakness and the rising rate impact, let's bring in jason ware on the cnbc news line jason, good morning. >> good morning, frank. >> so we've got to start off, i know you're very bullish on tech, but we also have to see -- we're also seeing the impact the rising yields are having on tech how high do these rates have to go before it becomes neurosurmore than just a speed bump in the recovery >> that's a really good question there's not an academic answer, though if you look at history and 100 years of market history, what we see is that if you segment out yields, in particular, a ten-year yield

with a threshold, when we get above 3%, what we typically see is stocks begin to struggle with yields north of 3%, more so than they do with yields under 3% if we were to take past this prologue, i think it's fair to say that that level on the ten t ten-year begins to incite competition for equities, portfolio managers and allocations to assets, so you know, there's a fair amount of room from here we're around 1 1/2% on the ten-year it would have to double before we get to that threshold i want to make sure that your viewers understand that it's not just about the level of the ten-year as it relates to stocks, but it's how fast we get there, and i think part of the turbulence we have seen over the past few weeks has been because the move in the ten-year yield has been dramatic quickly. i think as long as the yield rises in lock step with underlying economic growth, stocks will be okay. >> it is, and right now we're

showing a chart, the ten-year rising 70% in 2021 certainly a shock for investors. a lot of investors are rotating out of big cap tech names like faang stocks and microsoft i know you remain bullish, but are there other companies that you're eyeing that are tied to the recovery but not tech? >> yeah, there are so i think what you want to do is if you want to get some leverage to the economic reopening story which we believe in this year, frank, we think we're going to see a strong boom in the economy as inoculated consumers spend a wall of pent up savings and pent up demand coming with that we will see a pretty strong economy this year, and getting away from the secular growth technology stocks, if you want to have exposure to the reopening, we think you can do that with high quality companies. you don't have to go to the epicenter areas with low quality businesses and speculate on the share prices instead, you can own a starbucks, which is an experienced business, and yes, the stock has done okay, and

they have held up their volumes on a relative basis, given everything that's going on with drive through and curbside, none the less, that's an experienced business, they want people in cafes, sitting down on the computer, order ring a lay tté two. visa is a great secular growth category, all of the durable business parameters you want to have as a long-term investor, visibility into the cash flow streams and earnings, high returns on investment and capital, a wide economic mode, and they also saw volumes and in particular, the cross border volumes crush as the economy reopens, we think there's up side in volumes, and therefore the stock. the stock has a good set up. it hasn't done much in the last 12 months, relative to an on fire nasdaq. visa seems like a nice opportunity as well. intuitive surgical and health care there are definitely ways to get exposure with high quality businesses. >> one last question

we have to wrap up in a second i have to ask you, i know you're bullish on the recovery and the reopening. why not go for a short-term gain in travel and leisure stocks the russell a lot of people feel is directly tied to the reopening. >> i think the russell or s&p 600 is something we can do i don't think there's anything wrong with getting leverage to the economy through small cap. they have had a big run. i think if you look at them on a relative value basis to large cap, there's an argument to be made there's more upside ahead if you back the aperture out a little bit more, frank, you can look at the top in 2018 for small caps we're just now getting above the top in the third quarter, which is based on the trade war of that time. small caps are something you can and should own i think the other area, the epicenter stocks, our issue there is it's speculation, not investment carnival cruise lines could go up, 30, 40, 50%. then what, is that a business you want to own, two, three,

five years on a fundamental merit, and that's not a trade. we're investors, stick with high quality, durable cash flow streams. great businesses that you want to own over the next five years, and that's the way we're positioned in portfolio. >> we appreciate it. thank you again. turning now to the hiousing market couldn't get it out. i have a lot of questions for diana olick. it's half of a double whammy facing the housing market as the all important spring season is about to begin diana olick joins us with the very latest. >> march is upon us, but this spring's housing market is now shaping up to be the leanest and most competitive ever. about 207,000 fewer homes were newly listed for sale during the first two months of this year compared with the average for that time period over the last four years, and that's according to a new report from realtor.com. add that to the already lean supply of listings going into this year, and there are now half as many homes for sales

compared with a year ago some of that was due to extreme weather in the south, snow and ice conditions that left people without power and water, but that was not all of it if you look locally, the biggest drops in new listings were in oklahoma city. kansas city missouri, and milwaukee, but drops were pretty widespread there were a few markets with gains, namely san jose, california, san francisco, and denver, now, with demand still high for housing and supply continuing to plummet to new record lows, prices have nowhere to go but up the median price in january was up 10% year over year, and now mortgage rates are gaining steam again. they jump at the fastest pace in over a year last week, took a breather to start this week, and then after the fed chairman's comments on inflation yesterday, they just turned higher again. so welcome to spring, the best bet now is on the home builders, but their costs are rising and they're just going to pass that right on to the buyers frank. >> i don't think anybody wants to hear that diana i have to ask.

i know you said it wasn't the whole story. if some of the drop in listings was due to weather, won't those listings come on the market now and make up for it >> some of them absolutely will, and we'll see that because that was a problem just in those two months, but the issue now becomes with higher mortgage rates, how many people who have a rate of, you know, in the 2% range or the 3% range are going to say, oh, you know, rates are now moving higher, now is the time to put my house on the market, probably not, and in addition to that because we had such an incredible year in 2020 for home sales a lot of demand was pulled forward because of the pandemic, so those people who might have sold this spring already sold last summer so again, a lot of issues going into this spring >> so diana, i have to ask you a personal question about refies, i waited too long to refie my place. i got told by the broker, if you would have done it six weeks ago, you would have gotten a deal and a half. how is it moving forward with

the rising rates >> it depends on where you are, most people are at below 4%. if you can shave 75 basis points, even maybe 50 to 75 basis points off the rate you currently have, so if you're at, you know, 4 1/2%, and you can get to 3.75, that's still great or if you can get to 3 1/2 from 4.25, you're saving a little bit of money, and every penny is worth it, especially when you're looking at the higher costs of housing. you're not completely lost unless you're in the 2% range, then forget it >> thanks for trying to make me feel better, diana i like to save a lot of money, not just a little bit, but i appreciate the kind words. diana olick, thanks for the latest. movie theaters in new york city can begin to reopen today with restrictions. we're going to talk to one cinema chain coming up next. first, as we head to break, some of your other top stories this morning gm is looking to build a second battery factory in the u.s. with its joint venture partner lg chen the "wall street journal" says the companies are close to

choosing tennessee as the location shutter fly is reportedly in talks to go public again, this time through a spac deal the online photo company was taken private by apollo global less than two years ago. and the new buzz etf dropping in its trading debut, the vaneck sector, aims to give investors exposure to stocks frequently talked about on social media platforms like reddit and twitter choronwodwe exchange" coming up. stay with us ♪ if your money is working toward the same goals, why keep it in different places? sofi is a one-stop shop for your finances- designed to work better together. spend with sofi and get cash back rewards that automatically go toward your goals. like investing in stocks, etfs, and crypto.

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let's get a check on some of the stocks on the move today shares of gap rising more than 4% higher despite posting weaker than expected sales in its latest quarter that's because investors seem to be focusing on the up beat forecast gap says it expects to return to sales growth this year boeing fractionally higher, said to be looking for $4 billion of liquidity from banks bloomberg reports the play makers approached a group of banks. and check out shares of trade desks, not a name we talk about very often but a $30 billion ad tech company and the stock is dropping again this morning.

shares fell more than 20% between tuesday and yesterday after google clarified its ad tracking policy saying it will not use tech that follows people individually across the internet turning to the movie business. movie theaters in new york city can reopen today for the first time since march albeit with some restrictions. 25% capacity or about 50 people per screen the move comes almost after a year of theaters having to stay closed with many studios moving their block busters to streaming services instead more more on the reopening and what's at stake. let's bring in joe, the president of the national association of theater owners of new york good morning, joe. >> good morning. >> i have to ask you, with the reopening of new york city movie theaters, what does that mean for the movie business and what does that 25% capacity mean for your business? >> it means a lot worldwide. it means studios will be able to

keep the movies on their calendar and not send them directly to streaming. we're waiting for los angeles, anticipating that in the next few weeks hopefully. and we are hopeful that may's calendar will stay in tact, and that we'll be able to show block buster movies in theaters with some window of exclusivity as far as capacity, 25% is not great to start off we think of a traditionally seated auditorium with 200 seats, and 25% of that is 50 people most auditoriums have been retrofitted with luxury recliner seating. you lost about 60% of your seats by installing the recliner, you're down to 80 seats in the auditorium or 20 people at 25% we have asked the governor's office to increase the capacity of the luxury recliner auditoriums to 50% to have an equitable balance. >> obviously that 25% capacity impacts your business today, but in general, you mentioned, a lot of theaters have shifted to

luxury recliners, less capacity period than you would have in the past, and the studios generally give a 75 to 90 day window to get movies in the theaters first if you have fewer people in the theaters, are you worried the business model could change completely on amazon prime, coming to america 2 is coming out. i would imagine that would have been in the theaters if not for the pandemic are you worried that more and more of this business is going to go to streaming. >> i think more and more is going to come back to exhibition they can recoup their investment, to have an exclusive run. coming to america ii was sold for a lot of money during the time of pandemic, and the warner brothers model is streaming everything on hbo max. we're told it's a pandemic model. i don't think we'll ever go back to the 75 to 90 day exclusivity window something more than 45 to 60 range would be acceptable to both parties i think there's going to have to be some compromise on both studios and exhibitors

>> all right around the nation there's about 90,000 movie theater workers, a lt lot of people are impacted by this in your opinion, what happens if movie theaters can't reopen their business or at least begin to reopen their business more normally does it impact the other areas >> it sure does. movie theaters, restaurants and retail are all codependent on each other so, you know, in small towns, w have a nice theater, if that goes, you certainly see a lot of restaurants around it not surviving and retail shops also not being able to survive. they're really all codependent on each other. people are still looking for a night out, and movie theaters provide it safely. our cinema safe protocols have, you know, led us to still not have one single case of coronavirus traced to a movie theater worldwide, not one >> so let's talk about some movies that are coming out today, and also coming up. fast and furious 9, i'm a big fan of the franchise the studio decided to move the

release from may to a few weeks later. and they're putting on disney plus instead of putting it in the theaters, as a theater operator, what's your take >> riah is going on disney plus premium, so it's available for a fee to stream at home, but it is also in theaters starting today. unlike tom and jerry which opened last week, a decent gross for the times. riah has a premium carry to it we think more people will come to theaters to see riah. with the furious move, i understand that decision was made because the u.k. will be open by then you know, they're looking for most major markets to be open. new york is a giant step in getting that done. los angeles, washington, d.c., the u.k., those are our next targets. so theater stocks, they have actually been up over the last month. i'm looking at imax and the other big theater chains in the u.s., internationally, do you

feel confident that the theater business is going to get back to where it was before the pandemic in 2021, or is it going to change permanently >> i think it's going to get back to where it was i don't know that it will be in 2021, maybe by christmas time, i think certainly as more people are vaccinated and they're comfortable with the experience we provide, they'll see that, you know, we're a very safe place to go, and you know, movie going has been part of the fabric of america since 1905, the first nickelodeon, and you know, there's been threats to our industry, many over the years, first of course television, cable television, home video, and everything like that, and then now streaming, but, you know, we're still here, we will survive, and we'll be back >> i'm a big fan of the movies, wishing you and other theater owners and workers the very best and hope the vaccine allows you to return to normal. >> thank you. what senators are trying to tuck into the $1.9 trillion covid relief bill days before a full chamber vote.

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welcome back, as the senate prepares for a possible weekend vote on the 1.9 covid stimulus bill it is prime time for 11th hour deal making and horse trading to get the bill over the finish line. our own ylan mui breaks down one such deal being brokered right now as we speak. good morning, ylan. >> well, good morning, frank the senate has finally released the text of that covid relief bill it is 628 pages long lawmakers are tweaking it right up until the last minute, and one thing they tucked in there was sub title 8 section 908 a provision to limit excessive executive pay. it would prevent publicly traded companies from deducting compensation for their highest paid employees if they make over

a million dollars. currently this rule already applies to the top five executives at a company. the covid relief bill would expand to the top ten. now, this seems like a small change that only affects a few people, and it wouldn't take effect until 2027 but it's projected to raise $8 billion over just a few years, and that is a lot of money from a very tiny pool of people. but it serves an important function the covid package includes nearly $31 billion to shore up pension funds over the next decade that wasn't president biden's original framework for the bill, and democrats needed a way to offset the cost, taxing executive pay is a politically easy fix, frank, and it's just one example of that last minute bartering that happens in washington when legislation gets down to the wire back to you. >> number one, i know you read every page of that 628 page bill i know you did what's next in the process overall for that bill? >> yeah, well, we got to hear

the clerk read all 628 pages overnight, frank, he just finished at something like 2:00 in the morning what happens next is the senate will come back into session at 9:00 a.m they'll have three hours of additional debate over the bill, and then they'll move into votearama that could mean additional changes to the bill as both parties offer amendments to taylor the bill to any sort of particular issue they see needs to be changed. hopefully there will be a final vote sometime this weekend let's hope it doesn't drag into next week as well. >> any other last minute changes that seem more likely than other changes? >> yeah, there were already some tweaks that were made to the bill beyond this limit on executive pay, including ensuring that student loans wouldn't be taxed. any student loan relief isn't taxed. there were additional guardrails put on for the way that none for education could be spent they also changed the way state and local funding is done for the bill, smaller states, states

with rural populations or not as many people in them are sure they have at least as much funding as they got in the c.a.r.e.s act. they want to make sure that every senator sort of has a say and is able to go back to their constituents and declare a win, but sometimes that does result in some sort of messy policy. >> i would imagine ylan mui with the latest on a late night in d.c., we appreciate it. turning back to the markets, they're facing another potential pressure point following yesterday's sell off, which was triggered in part by fed chair jay powell's comments. employers, they likely stepped up hiring last month with estimates for an increase of 210,000 in nonfarm pay rolls your next guest expects a number well below the consensus but says that will be inconsequential in the grand scheme of things tom porcelli is the chief economist at rbc capital markets. good morning, tom. >> good morning, frank, goold to be w-- good to be with you.

>> how do you think the markets will react if your estimate turns out to be true, how do you think they should react? >> actually, i think we're lower than that. we're looking for a decline of 100,000. and so that's probably a few hundred thousand below consensus. this is one of the reports that you really want to look through, you know, from our perspective, this is really more of a technical factor that's playing out here today just a high seasonal hurdle. without getting into too much detail, and boring everyone to tears, i think the reality is last month there was a really favorable seasonal hurdle, why we actually saw an increase. this month, we're going to see a higher seasonal hurdle, we're going to see a decline all of that aside, i think the reality is once we turn the light switch on, we'll get back to the business of gaining jobs, but we're going to have to get through this one first. >> back to the ten year, goldman sachs and td securities with a

2021 year end forecast, calling for yields to hit 1.9 and 2% by december in its note, goldman says while we think there's near term consolidation, we believe strong economic data, will lead yields in their upward trajectory we revise up our projections a lot to digest there, what's your take on this? >> look, it's interesting, when we were putting out, probably like everyone else, our year end forecast, we envision yields would rise really across the curve. we thought the process would be slower, and in fairness to us, we have a constructive view on the back trodrop anyone who knows our research well, knows we have been a lot more constructive than most other folks out there. i think for us when we built in sort of more of a gradual increase in tens, the rationale behind that is look, the economic backdrop would allow for yields to rise fairly significantly. we didn't think everyone would

embrace the ideathat you're going to get strong growth and inflation this early in the year, despite the fact that we had been thinking it for a long time we're synthmpathetic to the risn yields we have had to adjust our forecast while i think there's some additional lift in ten high temperature year -- ten-year yields, the heavy lifting is the front end of the curve you have to keep in mind, while it's true that the markets building in more inflation, more growth, yes, that should obviously allow ten-year yields should rise in simp thinsympath the view, the fed is going to rise sooner, when that idea gathers a bit of momentum, seemingly it's starting to gain a little bit of momentum, you're going to allow the front end of the curve release. you can see two year yields 50

basis points or higher by the end of the year. let me make this last point, particularly if it is true that this will then mean that the fed actually has to start the process of tapering before the end of the year, and that '22, the real conversation there is, hey, is the fed actually going to wind up piping next year. >> let's get back to your estimate, as you corrected me and i appreciate that, 100,000 jobs lost actually in february >> yeah. >> what data or trends are you seeing that is leading you to that estimate, and is this the floor of the job market in 2021? >> it's a great question, so, you know, the right way of thinking about the payroll report today or, you know, today meaning sort of this period is really you want to look at initial jobless claims or continuing claims, really, survey week to survey week, and when you do that from sort of the january survey week to the february survey week because of course this is a february report, what you see is that there is, really, they were actually fairly flat and so in that context, once you

apply the seasonal adjustment factor, it winds up giving you this modest decline. in terms of, you know, do we think that this is the last of it, you know, it probably is look, it's not like i think job growth is going to start roaring back next month. we're going to have to wait for things to gather a bit more momentum i would say it this way, whenever it happens, whether it's next month or the next couple of months, i would say by the end of the year, you're probably looking at a dynamic where you're darn close to full employment in the united states. >> are you saying you actually see unemployment going back to the february 2020 level of 3 1/2%, and if so, what sector do you see coming back first >> that's a great follow up question, so, we were wildly below full employment back before the pandemic, so full employment is probably somewhere between 5 and 5 1/2%, so we see the u.s. economy getting back to, you know, again, what we would define as full employment by the end of the year.

>> tom porcelli, thanks for the insight. we appreciate it as always. >> thank you so much. turning back to the markets, we're approaching the top of the hour. let's get a quick check of where we stand futures pointing it a lower open across the board the dow looking like it's going to open 32 points lower if this trend continues, names leading the dow lower, salesforce, caterpillar, dow and disney. tech is a huge part to have the story. broadcome, skyworks, ebay and tesla. tesla down big, and that's a big reason behind the drop in cathie woods ark innovation etf, and it's now in the red for 2021 dropped 24% from its all time high, a 5% drop yesterday, wiping out $23 billion in gains it had seen since the start of the year that does it for us here on "worldwide exchange. "squawk box" is up next.

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good morning, fed chair jay powell sparking a selloff in stocks, and a jump in bond yields somehow. i guess it was his comments on inflation yesterday. we'll show you what's moving right now. meantime, we'll get another read on the economic recovery today already time, well, it's a short month, for the february employment numbers, predictions coming up straight ahead. plus, several companies, including imax and the gap forecasting a robust recovery and a return to pre-pandemic behaviors. it's friday, march 5th, 2021,

and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ how's it going to be when you don't know me ♪ ♪ how's it going to be when i'm not there ♪ ♪ how's it going to be ♪ >> good morning, everybody, welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin, and we do this every day, but this day we really need to get right to the markets you probably heard this yesterday, but rising bond yields pushing stocks lower yesterday after fed chair jay powell expressed a little worry about inpoliceflation, and provo indication of policy changes ahead. >> businesses and people would need to believe that larger increases in prices would be repeated year after year, and we think it's unlikely that the low inflation would suddenly change. the effects like the ones i described would be one time effects.