to the weekend and wait until you see what happens the rest of today. >> indeed. nothing can happen over the weekend, right and we still got friday to worry about too. >> anyway, i will see you guys both back here next week and see all of you at home back here too. have a great weekend everybody "squawk on the street" begins right now. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street". i'm quintanilla. good news. futures are up on that better than expected jobs number for february, 379,000. positive revisions bulls trying to look past the ten year and oil near 66 our road map begins with the market volatility. rates rocking higher futures rally as the jobs number comes in above expectations. >> plus we'll get the first

response to the economic outlook following today's jobs report with national economic council director and it's spac mageddon carl, as we watch interest rates move higher. >> yeah. jim was just talking about with joe a moment ago jim, i guess the working theory is that we're taking this in stride because we're so oversold >> i think we came in today betting that there would be a number that was really much too strong and that's why we, after chairman powell said some benign things that why we sold off. so you get the number. it's kind of predicted by what happened in the afternoon. you get a little lift because we

just yesterday -- yesterday's last three hours really i think were three hours that drove people out of the market there were three stages of grief yesterday on this show a lot of people still in denial. there's some people bargaining, acceptance, no very few people are accepting. story stocks why i say story. i'm talking about 2040, 2035, companies that have just the -- it's the year of magical thinking >> yes, it is. 2060 is that key year we point to so often and so many presentations come along with spac any number of companies there is a very high multiple being applied to out year revenues and potential and/or free cash flow that's been discounted back and brought joy to the bulls for some time in a very low rate

environment and that sort of turned on its head in the last couple of weeks. >> margin figures are the highest they've been in last seven years. then i'm told that he they don't reflect -- you'll love this one. lows against houses. >> the margin numbers don't reflect loans against houses northeastward not your mortgage but taking an additional loan out on the equity on your home to put into the stock market >> they are hoping to get the stimulus money, maybe pay down some of that debt. this is absurd but, you know, there are a lot of people, david, who think as we heard many times last year, stocks only go up. carl, yesterday afternoon we saw a give up in a lot of names but when you look at other periods of inflation scares people are upset stocks are down 20%, 25%, 30% to 40% they tend to have a bounce and then they go you have a bounce if you're bearish take advantage of this but i don't trust this market

because what i saw yesterday was a sense that a lot of the big favorite stocks and spac stocks, you can't unpoison the well in unsession. carl, just a lot of stocks, you know, virgin galactic. the sellers. costco i think costco will bounce today. enough already you have people nitpicking costco we have sellers. they need the money. these people who need the money and they are not wall street bets or robinhood but they are not used to needing the money. this is it stocks go down i mean stocks. >> yeah. there's a bunch of price target cuts on costco this morning. we'll talk about the selling of virgin galactic. our spac 50 index is now red for the year goldman basket of nonprofitable

tech is down 23 from the high. and now this downgraded nikla, they think is largely about the change in sentiment that you're referring to >> the fact that they were long -- david you and i were discussing this yesterday. they liked -- i guess they loved a truck. i'm not sure >> so it was under it's own power. >> quantum -- >> it wasn't on its own power. >> a year ago that we had -- last in person interview that i did. a year ago yesterday >> combative session >> early addition. who knew i was just starting to learn about spacs in a more detail way.

we'll talk about them in a more detailed way in the next block >> we were discussing the trading parts. gary cohn trading cart bill ackman trading cart you want to get in there because maybe it's like, i don't know, what an irving banks what do you do, david, when you're trying to assess the gary cohn spac. what ratio are you looking at? >> i don't know. i'm looking at cliff robins. >> you know -- >> did you see that latest thing with ryan cohen, i don't know what that was. >> yeah. carl, we have saivors all over

the place and he's it for gamestop >> the tweet from yesterday, deeply moved by that tweet let's talk about inflation morgan stanley today out with a note saying these pressures nor 2021 are not necessarily transient especially in mobility sectors and powell got right to the point yesterday. we had a "wall street journal" conference take a listen. >> businesses and people need to believe larger increases in prices would be repeated and it's unlikely these low inflation expectations would suddenly change. more likely effects like the ones i described would be one time effects >> yeah. morgan stanley, says it will remain elevated as inventories and supply chains remain challenged which we talk about literally every day. >> costco, the cfo of the retail group said here timing delays, port dallas impacting furniture,

sporting goods, lawn and garden and even some food, sundry, imported cheeses and pressures in nonfood, electronics, tvs, computer pricing pressure. smart home related items and here's one, exercise equipment and bikes. do you want to step in front of peloton when you know they are having supply problems to get bikes at costco? equipment, exercise equipment at costco >> no thank you. >> that's right. 108 million strong what do you think? >> no, thanks. >> no? >> no. >> you don't take it on. >> down 12%. >> you don't think this is a level. >> i don't opine on this that's one do i want to buy peloton >> it was facetious. >> i know that i get uncomfortable just being asked. >> okay.

i'm saying costco can't get exercise cycles, equipment and they got this new, i don't know -- carl have you tried their treadmill? i don't know >> no. i've heard good things >> well it's he early. >> i doubt i'll get a chance to any time soon either >> you got to put your name in a treadmill. name me two cars >> jim, let's come back to the big picture here in terms of the 10 year, where the yield may go. people are actually starting to talk about 2%. what happens to these growth names if you continue to see the trajectory with prices obviously down yield up on the 10 year >> i read a piece that reminded me of when in '90s, the supply that's going hit the market next

week how will the market hit the supply >> you're talking about the bond market >> yes >> we have the 1.9 trillion which looks like we are. treasury will be selling a lot of bonds deficit spending as we know. and there is a question like where does the additional supply come from unless the fed scoops it all up. but not clear that's the case. >> no, it's not. david i look at the supply problem. it is a problem. >> will we have some auctions going off the rails? >> yes >> what will that do to the market >> rates go higher won't hurt the housing market. doesn't initially. >> longer term, the 30 year still pretty low even though it moved up >> yeah. they are having to pay more for components and feed right to us. >> yep

we need a $50 billion, 50 year bond to build -- i talked with some of the larger ceos in chips they know we need like a manhattan project. >> we're going to need a bigger bond >> all right >> one of my favorite movies what can i tell you. >> the best. >> jim, on the flip side, goldman does the take third to conviction buy saying the reaction to higher rates especially at the short end will be a lot quicker this time >> well, look. these banks are flying jpmorgan up two points even before number. people decided this is the way to play it and decided you got to play it with exxon, and there's a very good bank i remember when i first heard it when i was at goldman. i called it third fifth. he said no it's fifth third. it's a conundrum

>> very good bank. the bigger banks as well i did not see fifth third shots up over 53%. good place to be will continue to be the case >> how about key key is up 23 what is best is first horizon because brian jordan has done a great job up 27% and you get the best areas in the country. you get tennessee, which is booming. why? because, carl, their taxes are somewhat better than ours. you get to keep a considerable more of your paycheck. now we're still working -- >> it's not a paycheck if politicians get going it will be a stipend that's what i call it. a stipend. >> you're a rich guy and that's what you say no that's what people will say on twitter >> i know. get past 52%, 53%, 54% of your

income >> is it better to take 2% of what you own >> it's two cents. >> two cents nobody at this table have to worry. >> do they take my suit? do i pay 2 cents on my suits does elizabeth warren want 2% on this >> she wants to take your lapel right off. >> do i have to give the government $1.80 >> cut that in half. >> guys. we'll take a break we'll talk to brian deese about the very strong jobs numbers got some calls on oracle, boeing, western. movie theaters opening today

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spaccalytics if you were to go at this rate all year you would have 2028 spacs. you won't. the numbers are enormous they keep coming 12 spac ipos pricing last night despite what's been this meltdown remember, of course, if you trade below 10 you'll still get your 10. the money is in trust. so the cash is in trust. then if they don't do a deal or can't gate deal passed up to two years although typically again it varies deal to deal but usually two years you get money back at least you get your 10 bucks back but as jim was saying, carl was talking about, we watched some of these names go below 10. take a look at our index we put together the post-deal. i'm sorry the pre-deal and after announced deal there's the spac cnbc 50 we got the other one as well

then i want to get to some of the names overall. when they announced the deal but haven't de-spacced then the five families of spac i went with five families. there are some of the happens. so virgin galactic, been very strong he sold $250 million worth of stock last night open door has been good. clover, not good at all. then the other two, still well above ten. let's move on the michael klein and his various spacs. the churchill spacs. right? there they are not as good. mu multiplan has been disastrous. there's cciv lucid deal is the one they announced. the two haven't been announced but issued both trading above 10.

gore we can take a look at and then foley just to get a sense as to some of the big families here, right? look at that wow. 885, 1015, then foley. you get the point, guys, other than a handful yeah bft, still doing well. betsy cohen as well. a lot of stuff trading near 10 it will be interesting some even falling below that i have a smart windows company, cfii, 9 bucks. they want to get their deal done do you vote yes for the deal but then redeem because you can get your 10 bucks even though you voted in favor of the deal there's going to be some interesting things going on here as we watch things go 10 below the plus value and see what they choose to do >> one of the things we have to point out is you take something like lucid which is churchill,

look at the price and say wow okay, you're okay. but how about the people that paid 15 because they heard the rumor it would be with lucid look the at the money that was lost if you came in thinking that this was going to be the big win. that's where i think the pain is really >> without a doubt so much speculation in the name. we talked about it man it got nasty out there and when they announced the deal, it was when it was the time to sell we learned there would be 1.6 billion shares outstanding enormous deal. great names. you could argue the car would being a great success. we heard about the efficiency of the battery. it went from 60 to now 24. we're still talking about 37, 38 billion market value for this company. >> why shouldn't there be 2,000? what's keeping it so there aren't 20 every day?

>> that's thing. the money goes in a trust, right? so conceivably after a couple of years you get it back. if you have cash minimum levels again it varies from deal to deal but you can vote in favor of the deal bust still redeem and the pipe comes in to fill that in. you can get your 10 bucks back if it's trading below that there's a lot of different things we're still learning still relatively new -- been around for a long time but somewhat new programs. >> clover has been the subject you own that why not buy it at 7. >> listen i put it up there because it's de-spac still has some of the same shareholders that's de-spac, jim as the multiplan. >> that's the company. we'll have an awful lot of them, carl an awful lot of these companies that we follow and excited about sometimes. ev and battery technology.

>> did you see the ev index? i mean, not a lot doing that well isn't that funny 17 charge station companies. >> is that all just 17. >> 23. one called tuscan holdings do you think that's like venice? no it's under the tuscan sun holdings i'm making fun i love tuscan. read it. tuscan you're fabulous i actually own a farm in tuscany so i like tuscan >> it's true >> churchill was amazing david denigrated churchill i'm for churchill. >> i don't think we need to be this defensive but okay we got that we may not make a "jaws" reference. brian deese on the jobs number in a moment. sales are down from last quarter but we are hoping things will pick up by q3.

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if you missed it this morning the jobs number for february, 379,000 was above the 200,000 estimate market likes it for now. the 10 year yield did get up to 1.63 for a new year to day high but now back to 1.59 we'll talk to brian deese about the number after a short break and the opening bell

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all right. we made it it's friday. get started with an opening bell less than two minutes from now broadcom is the name snoofrpry day there's a semiconductor company that reports people are hiding in this group and saying you know what because of 5g can't miss broadcom misses. we did interview on set.

delivers a great number. you can nick it but 5g, bookings are fabulous if this one doesn't work, if broadcom goes down, heaven help the smh. >> okay. >> because it's got 5g doing well they got data center doing well. the guidance was terrific. free cash flow was awesome. if he can't stem the tide, well i tell you, sky works solutions is dead. there's no mercy when they turn on this group. no mercy >> nowhere to hide >> this is it. 3% yield and virtually booked for 90% of the year for he some of his -- this was an amazing call and if it goes down, i don't know what to say i don't. it would take my breath away if it goes down better get me some oxygen.

>> all right i'll get on it carl an opening bell coming up back over to you >> yeah, guys. let's get to that opening bell final one of the week. coming after four days of losses as jim said earlier some remarkable price action in latter half of yesterday's session. if it's not rates that you're hammering about it could be oil, which jim this morning is near 66 gasoline futures yesterday highest since july of '19. i know you talked about the impact of oil on retailers after a tanker came off that intraday high >> everything involved in the food chain of anything commodity whether it's be copper, oil, lumber, anything coming from the ports, everything is inflated in price. and i know j. powell may think it's transient yellen said the strength of this economy would not be transient and it turned out it would be.

oil has plummeted. one thing that happened in this market is that whenever you have a stock that's been a rocket, and i'm not talking about virgin galactic but cruise ships. cruise ships ceos are not done 29.85. norwegian cruise, they sold more than 40 million shares why? because they are not cruising yet. and so they need the capital and this one already has a good balance sheet. 40 million shares. i don't know that's the tale of the tape. if that deal fails and people don't make money we have a new market because a lot of these have worked including royal caribbean. >> i saw that this morning, jim. yeah that's 15% of the shares out, of that new offer and norwegian is down 8%. jim we'll see how the market responds thinking of travel related names that people are trying to hop on board the train.

this upgraded boeing they will buy 275. on the max outlook they can work down their inventory by late '22. >> united came in with extra they said that the wide body is stabilizing. obviously travel and leisure is direct play. boeing raised, is borrowing morgan they could easily have done equity but they are going to the bond market but a good rate >> why would they do that? >> what am i the cfo >> sometimes you play cfo on tv. >> i talked to a cfo many times. >> they chose to take your advice >> they are a very well run company. saved the market sunday night deal. you were probably watching -- no sports >> i broke that deal that was my story. >> you brokered the deal >> yes >> i stand corrected >> yes, you do

i've broken this year. >> that's not bad. remember boeing is the -- this is my favorite line. improfitted outlook for travel and airline recovery and i think that's true. that's one of the reasons why my friend pushed this morning alphabet google, i've been seeing travel ads for the first time carl because people do want to go somewhere. if you're going to open up states then you want to go places i think it's so easy to buy alphabet because faang is so hated and easy to buy boeing because it's down substantially. i say two thumbs up. >> as gottlieb said this morning 16% of the population now has one dose 8% fully vaccinated. we mentioned earlier movie theaters in new york city will open today liam is greeting movie goers up on the upper west side >> where is that going to be >> she's been taken. >> but keep your eye on imax

even though slightly wider expected loss, shares doing okay amc not reflecting much. an interesting fight david at the same time we're watching movie theaters, wanda vision last night on disney crashed again. >> by the way jim talks about no place to hide. i'll tell you, fox, viacom, discovery to a lesser extent disney recently has been a place to hide. discovery is, i got to mention it again, it's off 112% this year 112% >> i look at discovery, he said you have to buy it >> it's true he is incredibly smart he's a bull long term. he owns a lot of companies he still thinks it will go higher from here i don't know no hold back there at all? >> on "closing bell" the ceo of

amc who took advantage -- one of the things that has happened whether it's norwegian cruise or amc, some of the ceos have decided, you know what there's a lot of enthusiasm so why not issue stock. >> don't talk about gamestop >> real quick, carl, let me just finish up. core logic, co-star says he see you later. very odd behavior. they cite interest rates in saying they abandoned their bid for the company. interest rates moving up now is not the time for us to aggressively buy into the residential mortgage market and following that as people know for some time that stock is benefiting from it, corelogic is lower. it's a weird one they had four chance then they decided to come once the deal was announced the 80 bucks a share anyway you won't hear that name from me for quite some time,

carl back to you. >> let's get to the jobs numbers. 379,000 added last month unemployment down to 6.2 with us this morning, first on cnbc, brian deese. welcome back happy friday >> happy friday to you guys. >> i assume it's a number that you guys are definitely applauding today and i'm guessing it could have been even better if the weather hadn't brought construction down about 61 >> well, look, we're always happy to see positive job numbers but what you also see in this report is we got a long way to go. we're still down 9.5 million jobs since the pandemic began. and that's a bigger hole than any time during the great recession. we saw some encouraging signs in leisure and hospitality in february we also saw some real concerning signs you saw 70,000 state and local state educators laid off in

february so we got a long way to go we missed recovery that's part of the reason why we are going to be focusing and try to get the rescue plan passed through congress this weekend. >> i was going to say is that another way of bolstering support for the package. gary cohn this morning said the economy showing recovery, consumers are returning, the risk now he says is misdirected stimulus you obviously disagree >> look, we look at 9.5 million jobs down and at the pace that we've seen over the last couple of months it would take years and years to get back to the pre-pandemic level of course that's not where i want to get. we want to get back to a trend growth we have a long way to go here and we also have to recognize that the unevenness of this crisis persists. black unemployment is almost 10%. and, again, we see that we made no progress on long term unemployment here so while we're

always encouraged to see positive, things moving in a positive direction we have a long way to go we also know that the kind of fiscal policy action that we're looking at in the rescue plan would help to accelerate things across the board whether it's the at the state and local level or helping families on their balance sheets >> let's talk about across the board and i do point out black unemployment 9.9 is just way too high hispanic 8.5 but you're sending a package of $1400 pretty much to everybody, it's certain at a certain income wouldn't you rather see that go disproportionately to people who are unemployed >> let's talk about what's in this plan. first of all it expands unemployment insurance for millions of americans and as you say the measure of unemployment rates for blacks and hispanic is what you cited but most economists agree that actually if you look at the actual unemployment rate it's probably more like 8% to 9% nationwide and those numbers for blacks and hispanics are well into the

double digits. this plan would provide direct assistance to them provide direct assistance to those who are hungry with food assistance provide support to avoid evictions for people who are in trouble and facing the prospect of being kicked out of their homes. we do all of those things. in addition to that provide direct payments to families making up to $150,000, singles up to 75,000 we think that's an appropriate thing to do given the degree to which this crisis has actually put working families at a disadvantage we think providing that support right now would help bolster and provide a bridge to when we can see durable signs of recovery. >> some of the numbers i see, 100,000 restaurants have closed because of the pandemic. they hire a lot of people. what incentive are you giving people to re-open? not just talk ppp, but these are permanently closed unless you do something because the incentives

just aren't there to re-open >> look it's a devastating problem we have across the nation 400,000 small businesses have closed permanently many of them are facing real challenges so what we want to do is we want to provide a bridge and as you said the ppp program does provide a bridge we're targeting those resource at the smallest firms, typically those with less than 20 employees that are disproportionately health. we want from provide growth capital. so one the thing that's in this plan is a small business opportunity fund to provide growth capital to companies so they can take advantage of parts of the economy where they see growth and build as well. this is about a bridge but to help those smallest firms, many of whom are in the restaurant hospitality sector as we come back >> when you talk about a bridge to durable signs of recovery, give me what will be those signs of recovery, and tell me when

your expectations are that we'll actually see them? >> well, one thing i learned in this job, you never want to make predictions about the economy. inevitably they will be wrong. what we want to see,i want to see faster job growth, more re-opening and we want to see re-opening in ways that will actually help those families and those communities that have been the hardest hit. we want to get cools re-opened we want to get support to people that need it the most, those who are unemployed, those facing homeless naens hunger. and do sign way where we can get durable momentum in the economic recovery >> when we bring you on here and adding 600, 700, 800 jobs a month is that a sign >> we'll always be rooting for more job growth for more americans across the board we think if we pass this rescue plan right now we can be poised for strengthening this economy and getting the full employment significantly faster than most

forecasters estimate without this plan. that's our goal. >> brian, really quick while we have you we got to ask about the semiconductor shortage both as an industry story and as a macro story. i wonder how you think it fits into the overall picture of scarcity which is a running theme in the economy as we move into the spring. >> in short term, myself and my counterparts and the national security team are spending a lot of time interacting with our counterparts with the taiwanese governments to address the short term short jags in the auto industry and other sectors but this is not a problem that has a short term solution. this is part of a longer term challenge, vulnerabilities that we have in the american supply chain. so what we're really focused on is looking at how we can actually build more domestic industrial resilience in supply

chain for semiconductors but also other key inputs that go into our manufacturing base so that we don't find ourselves in a crisis like this where we see changes in demand and changes in supply patterns completely exposed. so you're going to hear a lot more from this white house about that going forward we'll focus on the short term issues but really the solution here is a longer term strategy and that's one where we have broad bipartisan support we need the resource to build that strategy over the long term >> your point is exactly right we've been through cycles. a lot of people argue not one quite like this. brian, we always appreciate it on jobs friday great to see you have a great weekend >> you too >> brian deese national economic council director jim if we had more time i would have asked about infrastructure which will be a story that will heat up and antitrust, david, i don't know if you saw the report, tim wu a critic of

antitrust structure will join as a special assistant to the white house. >> die see that. he's been outspoken on a number of issues. always worth reading listen, that figures into it we've yet to really test and see what antitrust policy in the biden administration will look like it's something to keep in mind and with mr. deese that longer term plan, jim, you always wonder what will that involve in terms of how they are going to go about supporting the semiconductor industry in this country. not the short term concerns about supply constraints but longer term more in national defense. it has to do with defense and the fact that -- i'm not saying you can't trust taiwan but the chinese put tremendous push on these companies. not like u.s. companies that happen to be in china, in taiwan these are chinese companies that we have affiliated with. david, you know a lot of times we don't own 100% of the

companies that are in china. that do -- >> pretty much most of the time. >> yeah. >> carl, most of them. yeah >> indeed. they made promises bath long time in filling them so interesting comments from deese. we'll see how it moves market. let's get to rick santelli this morning. hey, rick. >> indeed, listen we would like to see many hundreds of thousands of jobs coming back beyond the jobs we see but it was a pretty good report considering what's going on, considering vaccines going on, considering you can't improve when closed. now that we're re-openingthing will improve and you're seeing that show up in numbers. intraday of ten, zoom, zooming but if you go back to last thursday something interesting last thursday when he a little spike. we spiked up to 161. look at today, we took that out by a basis point may be significant also tells me

we know where resistance is on yields if you're looking for triets go down you'll be wrong if this market trades above 166, 167, that could fuel more momentum on the upside and on 30s, well 307bz look at one week of 30s going back to that thursday actually and you'll see they come up short of taking out their intraday spikes. once again that plays into the off side so around 237 to 240 is the number you want to pay close attention to on 30s. now finally if we look at both of them together we're counting 13 mosebach on 30s 30s, if they closed on their high yield around 233, that comes to first, second week of january, january 9th the point is as we saturday to see these yields rise to

pre-covid levels there's going to be a magic sweet sflot where the fed will have to make a decision whether they want to alter, taper or add to their purchases. to see the reaction weapons the feedback on stock. finally two day dollar index up a cent in two days. if you look back at the chart going back november. three month plus high in the dollar index higher rates gave it a boost carl, jim, david, back to you. have a good weekend. >> all right you too, rick. so the early bounce here was dow up 334 we've lost a little bit of that. yields pretty steady oil is above 66. more "squawk on the street" in a moment ♪

♪ when disaster strikes to one, we all get together and support each other. that's the nature of humanity. ♪ ♪ no one thought that they were going to do this before it happened, and everyone just did it. i think that's the way that human nature should be looked at. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ if your money is working toward the same goals, why keep it in different places? sofi is a one-stop shop for your finances- designed to work better together. spend with sofi and get cash back rewards that automatically go toward your goals. like investing in stocks, etfs, and crypto. that's better together. or pay down your sofi debt sooner. that's better together. and that's how sofi is helping millions get their money right. ♪ ♪ everyone wakes up every morning

to a world that must keep turning. the world can't stop, so neither can we. because the things we make, help make the world go round. they make it cleaner, healthier, and more connected. it's what we build that keeps things moving forward. so with every turn, we'll keep building a world that works. twitter reportedly testing an undo send feature mashable is citing a researcher and tipster who says the feature works like this. once you hit send, a short timer

begins and you will be allowed five to six seconds to hit undo. ceo jack dorsey previously ruled out the idea of a strict edit button speaking of edits or undoes, ryan cohn's ice cream tweet from a few days ago the latest harkens back to the pets.com era i guess, jim, on the twitter front this would be easier than hitting delete and having to start the whole thing over again? >> yeah. those of us who like twitter, and particularly i am complimented quite often in twitter. then there is backhanded comments let's say, you want to get at it and you need this. twitter needs to be kinder maybe this will help us be kinder this stock has been shelved. not as badly as some of the other stocks, including one i will talk about on "stop trading. these stocks are toxic right now.

square, which was bought by a particular fund that a lot of people are short, did that deal yesterday that a lot of people are still scratching their heads. the title deal. >> and you were referring to arc, of course, being a buyer there. >> you keep picking on them. go ahead. >> i am not pick on them she has had the best performance of any money manager over the last five years. >> they areshooting against that fund, we were talking, it can be used as a hedge you short that - >> you get into trades counsel and down and you will get crushed. arc we are talking about, not square. >> arc is the one you want to own. it's all the stocks that are great stories in the out years as long as interest rates remain looking like they are going to go higher, you don't want story stocks you want, i don't know, parker hanson you want industrials >> that move to the cyclicals,

epicenter stocks. >> i like that. >> tesla is not the epicenter. >> speaking of which, nasdaq has gone a bit red, down eight points we are back in a moment. your doctor gives you a prescription you could use free 1-to-2 day delivery from cvs... but aren't you glad you can also just swing by to pick it up, and get your questions answered. that's healthier made easier. from cvs. - [narrator] grubhub perks give you deals on all the food that makes you boogie. and get your questions answered. (upbeat music) get the food you love with perks from- - [crowd] grubhub.

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the s&p, week to date gainers, it's all about energy and media. diamondback leads with 22% for the week david mentioned some of the media names like fox and discovery, but occidental an marathon in there as well. more "squawk on the street" continues in a moment.

let's get to jim and "stop trad trading.". >> you are seeing a lot of states open, connecticut most recently what that says is you are probably less likely to order through doordash doordash will say it's now ingrained, but that's not the way the market will view it because people want -- restaurants want people to come to the bar and restaurant and the last thing i am going do is send it out and make little money. doordash remains a stock you don't want right now as we open. >> yeah, i saw you mention wendy's as an example of what to look to. >> we, wendy's -- i like the inside of a wendy's. chipotle, you go inside. be carolful of doordash. they take a huge chunk that you want to discourage from people from doing it. you offer a discount to come to

your restaurant. that's what's going to happen. maybe use twilio to push the discount. >> what's tonight? >> nutanix, it's recycled. and okta, we will have both of them on. this is cybersecurity, and nothing is more important than cybersecurity given the fact that solar wind, we realize it's a national to destabilize our country. we just don't regard it as that. >> asymmetric warfare. >> we're fooms they are coming after us, carl, and we are like, hey, you know, okay. >> right we will see how long that lasts. see you tonight. >> yeah. >> "mad money" 6:00 p.m. eastern time. good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and morgan brennan looking at stocks coming off the initial high on the strong jobs number, we will watch that the senate begins the debate on the stimulus bill. some sell-off in growth names. the nasdaq is down 60 in a hurry. the roadmap begins with the jobs

growth serve a volatile week for stocks we will talk to goldmans about today's jobs report. >> spac wrap a closer look at the spac boom and if we may be nearing a bubble >> and an exclusive with the president and coo of fedex what he has to say about the impact of covid on the business, the company's climate goals and more we will get to that later in the show carl. in the meantime, markets are off the highs as we said after this better than expected jobs number steve lease naiesman brought us we talked to brian deese a moment ago, cautious in his comments than, say, larry kudlow would have been a year ago >> yeah, different attitudes or takes on this, especially because they think that we still have a long way to go, and we do a better than expected number helps markets initially this

morning. really what we see is a return of jobs to the troubled leisure and hospitality sector the economy a long way to get back, the jobs lost from the pandemic here are the top line numbers. non-farm payrolls up we have been reporting this week that the high frequency data pointed us to a better than expected number. unemployment down to 6.2%. average hourly earnings up 0.2 and labor force participation rate unchanged 61.4. we need to bring people back into the work force. better and more is coming next month and beyond there is a sense we may have crossed the threshold in terms of getting back. the increasing pace of vaccination and lifting of government restrictions showing up in the jobs number and promising continued improvement. let's look at the jobs this is big here leisure and hospitality up 355 so people returned to bars, restaurants and hotels retail a little bit better there, 41,000. manufacturing doing well government, not so good. that's local and state education

job losses construction a lot of that on the commercial side. i don't know for sure, but i suspect it could have been some of the oil service sector there. interesting trade this morning bond yields, they rose on the news, but then declined. stock futures rallied. the kind of came off labor i don't know what the market wants. better growth and it's okay with higher yields, or does it not really care which way we go, will sell off based on the higher yields? >> yeah, i'm going to pick it up, steve. that is the perfect question to start with our next guest. david kelly, chief global strategist at goldman funds. good morning to you both david, i am going to put that question right to you. i mean, it's great to see a stronger than expected jobs report, more americans are getting back to work on the other hand, you have all those concerns in the market we

could potentially see an unleashing of demand much faster and more furiously than i think has been expected. what that's going to mean in terms of the inflation picture, fed policy, et cetera. i realize that we are off the highs of the morning and "the mandalorian" is negative when you look at the s&p or the dow, why are we trading higher today? >> this is good for value stocks we are seeing a strong cyclical upturn in the economy here what's going on is we've adapted to the pandemic well, the economy is doing okay, and now we have policy kind of like al celebrated to the floor here we have this huge stimulus bill looks like it's going through the senate with not much modification from the house version. 1.8 of stimulus, 1.2 trillion hitting in the next several months and the federal reserve committed to keep rates low and bond buying going, you know, even if we get a transitory surge in inflation i see we are building to loot of

growth, a lot of inflation as this year goes on. that's not bad for value stocks which are sitting at low levels. it's not bad if you want a steeper yield curve. it tlehreatens growth stocks i think that's what we are seeing in markets. >> meghan, your thoughts on this, not only the trading action today specifically, but also a ten-year at 1.573% right now. if you expect we are going to stay at this higher level, i realize we are still at historical lows, but higher level versus a week or a couple weeks ago where you expect we continue to creep higher in yields, how do you play that as an investor? how do you assess your portfolio right now? what would you be buying or selling? >> yeah, morgan, great questions. i would say in terms of what we're seeing today in the price action, i think the bond market and the rate market has gone ahead and priced in a few more of these really good reports it is consensus for us to have a very strong year of economic

recovery we do very much think we are at an inflection point. for reference, we need to see -- if we saw 500,000 net new jobs every month, it would still take us until the fourth quarter of 2022 to get back to where we were we are still digging out of a deep hole. our expectation is for interest rates to move higher the next year probably approaching 2%, actually, in that 1.75 to 2% range. i to think it matters how fast you get there, and i think we've had quite an aggressive move we don't expect that to be continued. but we see that interest rate factor off as being -- as coming alongside of the constructive economic environment so from a portfolio perspective, we have been adding to cyclicals. we are overweight to financials, energy, materials, industrials those sectors that are really tied to the health of the

economy and rely on economic growth for their earnings potential. when it comes to tech and growth stocks though, we are still neutral. we are not selling i think when you are a tech investor and you are talking about this secular growth shift and these multi-year trends, you need to take a multi-year investment outlook so we're looking at rate-driven volatility in some of these big platform tech names, some of the fang names as potential buying opportunities. >> david, it was hard not to notice jpm's call earlier in the week, the economics team looking for 675,000 jobs a month 8 million for the full year with unemployment going to 4.5 by year end i wondered if you personally were onboard with that view, and if so, when you start -- when do we think we will see monthly numbers in that ballpark >> i do agree with that view

the first thing i think in a few months, we lost 69,000 education jobs in just the month of february we are going to get those back and a lot more as they reopen the schools. and all the leisurend entertainment, think about the things we are not doing we could do there is job losses in those sectors. and i think the pandemic is going to recede over the summer. we are going to get back to doing those things in the fall and as we do that we are going to create a lot of jobs. i mean, right now it looks like we are going to get the unemployment rate down to basically full employment in the space of three years it took us ten years to do that in the last expansion. the last expansion was kind of like a healthy tortoise. this is going to be a frantic hare i think it will have a frantic impact on markets. >> what about a real impact on inflation? i get this bridge to financial recovery, but hewhat's the yield on the ten-year going to look like >> i think it will match

inflation by this time next year if you look at core cpi, i think somewhere around 2.5% or maybe higher a year from now because of all of this demand pushing into this economy. in the long run i think that inflation will settle down, but we are going to get an inflation scare here and i expect that to be reflected in interest rates so i guess the way i'd approach it is, we shouldn't have negative real rates. there is no reason in an economy that expands later on this year, that gets past the pandemic, there is no reason why people should be paid a negative return for lending money to the government for ten years i think that will disappear over the course of this year. >> meghan, what do you think the biggest risks are to the market now? i ask that, in part, looking at the d.c. picture and what we are seeing on fiscal side. i know there is focus on stimulus, possibilities of an infrastructure deal behind that, but this is going to be a lot of money and a lot of debt and at some point the u.s. is going to have to pay for it are we thinking the right way about what the biden administration is going to mean

in terms of other growth-related policies like taxes and regulations and some of the other things that could come into play? >> yeah, i think in the near term the focus is definitely on the stimulus bill making its way through congress i think as we go out further this year hopes for more stimulus, additional infrastructure bills, things of that nature that require bipartisan support, are probably going to be a heavier lift because we are looking at the stimulus that's making its way right now, passing on party lines. so i don't know that there is lot of goodwill forming in order to pass bipartisan bills down the road i do think taxes are something that are noticeably absent from the conversation we do expect taxes on personal, corporate and capital gains to likely be higher at some point in the first half of the biden administration, and that is definitely a risk when you think

about inflation and interest rates resetting the valuation on stocks you think about taxes eroding the earnings and the margins company. so we are looking at that as a potential risk it's likely to not be a worst-case scenario and probably a corporate tax rate somewhere between 25 and 28%, but still a headwind to stocks if you look out over a multi-year timeframe. >> really does feel like 2021 is going to be a very busy year from a news perspective and a markets perspective. thank you both for joining us this morning to break down the latest. >> thanks. >> thank you. take a look at some of the nasdaq 100 losers for the week you can see some of the high multiple names have been dinged here marvel, okta, peloton at the century mark for a second day in a row. we'll watch that meantime, we are going to talked to jan hatzius don't go anywhere.

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welcome back "star wars," literally, has a legal fight over the pentagon's jedi cloud contract continues. a new report this morning saying microsoft's award, valued up to 10 billion over ten years is at risk the pentagon warning it would take too long to prove in court its decision to award microsoft

the contract, that it wasn't influenced by the white house, that the government mate stop even fighting if amazon is given the green light to argue bias claims in the case this has been years in the making the u.s. court of federal claims is expected to issue a ruling on the amazon accusations very soon, so we're keeping an eye out for that meantime, the race to supply cloud, another key tech services government agencies, continues keep in mind jedi would have essentially acted as an umbrella basically the main data repository for military services worldwide. it isn't the only cloud prom at the dod. there are a toddler other projects moving amazon, general dynamics, microsoft, oracle, which also recently filed a supreme court petition around its own preaward jedi protest. this is going to be one to watch, guys, carl, because it speaks to the tech adoption that is underway at government agencies right now, how

potentially lucrative that could be over the longer term and how big tech giants stand to benefit in an area, especially when you look at the defense department, that has been largely the terrain of established defense contractors that have been very focused to now on hardware-centric weapons programs >> yeah. a lot of moving pieces, especially after the president seemingly out of nowhere took a ding at the amazon union fight the other day. we'll watch that closely incredible boiling pots in defense. our "etf spotlight," we are looking at kathy woods arc innovation etf under pressure. now in the red for 2021. 5% trop in yesterday's session wipes out the $23 billion in gains that had hseen since the beginning of the year. some of the biggest holdings are down, including tesla, below 600 today, and is a full 30% down

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regarding technology let's talk about it. rates moving higher. some people questioning those multiples and out year earnings in revenues for high-flying technology names give me a sense of the dialogue you have had with clients. what are they asking what are you telling >> good morning. jeff jefferies tech desk is for sale y now. a lot of clients taking profits. last year was a way better year than anyone would have expected. multiples drink to highs we have never seen in stocks like snowflakes, trading 50 times the revenue. everyone schtake a timeout we think investors will come back to tech right now we are better for sale on our desk. we continue to favor at least

from a tech strategy perspective the semi group over software we think that is still a great sector and then there is some other sectors such as travel, dating these industries that are going to open up in the back half of the year rideshare with lyft that are in, you know, better positions as the economy opens. i think we are seeing money flow to other subsectors. i think i call it a timeout. i don't think it's over, but i think rate now investors are just awaiting the next turn. >> yeah. it never seems to be over, so to speak, as you point out. they always seem to come back to technology-related names, which are so broad overall given its impact on the overall economy. i wonder, when does that time come when does the timeout end? when rates not normalize, but level off, or something else you are looking for? i think this is a bigger

macro picture. it's more about the rates. that jump has created dislocation, obviously, we have had a spac craze that is coming unraveled in the short term you are seeing, i think, massive dislocation across multiple sectors and i think ultimately it's going to take time and ultimately i go back to where were multiples as a software analysts, where were multiples i think we are aoverextended on some of these high flyers. so our view is it still has time we still have multiple correction to go through the fundamentals are really good i would highlight we continue to see phenomenal spending patterns in fundamentals. this has nothing to do with the core companies' performances it has to do with the multiples. i think we are a week or two weeks out depending how fast we go down on some multiples, some downside in the short term. >> brent, a few minutes ago we were talking about that

controversial and beleaguered jedi cloud contract that represents something of a legal dogfight between microsoft and amazon, whether it's the opportunity within government as sort of this new generation of government contractors, or whether it's the opportunities on the commercial side how fierce could that cloud fight become whether it's amazon versus microsoft or amazon versus everyone else right now, especially given marketing spends >> if you look at the cloud wars, amazon has 60% market share. google has 30, and, sorry, microsoft has 30, and google has about 10 so amazon is dominating, right you look at -- you can drive a truck sideways through that market share and the share is still big every major company we are talking to is on ews those are the stats. what we would say is microsoft

has a really good position in the hybrid cloud they play very well in government many large companies that are going through regulation don't want all their data in the public cloud they want this hybrid environment and neither amazon or google addresses this in a great way. they have sop solutions but we think microsoft is the dominant force. we think the market is big enough for all three vendors to thrive the markets is incredible. it's going that way. there is going to be three providers and most large enterprises want two backups they don't want to do business with just one public cloud vendor our view is google is the up-and-comer, amazon is going to dominate and have a 20 point lead over microsoft even a year out from now in our analysis so ultimately, for shareholders, there are multiple ways to win by owning all three of those companies. >> brent, we will leave it there. appreciate it. thank you. >> thank you. let's get to our leslie picker for more on the decline in spacs, something we were

talking a great deal about in the last hour, leslie, as we continue to watch many of these names suffer >> yeah. it appears to be at least a short-term reckoning for spacs take a look at the cnbc spac 50 index of the largest spacs that have yet to announce a deal. they are in the wait and see period that benchmark lower again today. down about 1.5% after declines of more than 2.5% yesterday, putting it in negative territory for 2021 just over the last two weeks, the gauge is down nearly 18% as there really is this sort of risk off sentiment in the markets. among the biggest decliners some with the biggest market star power, bill ackman's square down today even after an 11% slide yesterday, and gary cohn's spac around its ipo price now, the reason sell-off has

largely impacted those spacs that had seen prices soar on excitement over their managers and the prospect for signing a deal in the near future, some of the skittishness surrounding spacs these days though stems from that concern that there is so much capital chasing so few deals, which could lead to higher prices paid and shoddy due diligence. that's the real concern here in the first two months of the year alone, nearly $70 billion has been raised through over 200 spacs. that equates to more than five spacs a day. if that pace were to continue for the rest of the year, it would be five times the level of last year's record-breaking monstrous year of spacs. so perhaps a breaking point may have been about ten days ago, if we had to pick something, when a spac managed by banker michael klein finally announced an anticipated tied up with lucid motors the market disliked the terms of that deal. the stock crashed thereafter

perhaps a warning signal to other spac investors still awaiting deal announcements, david. >> yeah. we have focused on that name, as you know, in part because it's been so reflective of the level of speculation and interest in the area but there is also an interesting dynamic when they fall delow $10, those announcing a deal and not de-spac'd, because the investors can wait, you can get $10 back by voting in favor, but redeeming, or simply waiting if it takes two years for them and they don't actually get a deal done, as often that is the amount of time they have to return the cash from the trust >> yeah, no, that's a really great point. and because of this sell-off, we are seeing several dozen spacs actually trading below that level. and it is an interesting dynamic because of the various redemption rights associate with these spacs. it doesn't make sense, just like it almost doesn't make sense for a spac to really see the share

price soar before there are indications of what that deal might be because it's impossible to really value it and it's so much more detached from the net asset value of the cash that has been raised. so really interesting aspects to the market that we have seen in the last few weeks, david. >> we will continue to follow it closely with your help thank you, leslie. >> thank you. we could probably spend the rest of the hour talking about this we are not going to. still to come, don't miss my exclusive interview with fedex president and coo. that's talking vaccine distribution, supply chain bottlenecks, the climate goals announced this week and so much more we will be back in two >> number one focus is electrify vehicles, you know the thing to remember here is that, you know, we are making this ambitious commitment to be carbon-neutral in our operations by 2040. this is the right thing to do for the planet

so it's an ambition as an agenda we are leading with electrification of vehicles. we are working with customers on, you know, carbon-neutral solutions, we are investing in research and technology to find answers to tough problems that have not been solved yet exus. the invitation to lexus sales event. get 0% apr financing on the 2021 nx 300. experience amazing at your lexus dealer. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy, even a term policy, for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized that we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have one hundred thousand dollars or more of life insurance you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit conventrydirect.com to find out if you policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance.

welcome back i'm rahel solomon and here is your cnbc covid update at this hour johnson & johnson's vaccine is being embrace by some americans pause it's one shot and also tends have fewer side effects than the pfizer and moderna vaccines "new york times" reports t government officials like it's easier and faster to get into arms, but also fear it would be seen as inferior due to a lower efficacy rate in trials. emphasizing that when it comes to preventing serious cases, all three vaccines are highly effective. and the last 20 minutes, canadian regulators approved the j&j vaccine.

the fourth shot allowed in the country. canada had cleared use of the astrazeneca vaccine, which has not yet received an okay from regulators in the u.s. >> and in indiana the governor got his johnson & johnson shot this morning at a mass vaccination site at the indianapolis motor speedway, home, of course, of the indy 500. not nearly as frantic as the pit stops at the race. the governor got to stay in his vehicle and does not have to come back for a second dose. carl, his message, as he was getting his vaccination, was, do it, just do it something we heard from dolly parton earlier this week when she said something to the effect, don't be a chicken squat, get your shot. >> that's right. one and done in the j&j case it's been a remarkable week for vaccine acceptance thanks. the jobs number this morning we talked to the national economic council director brian deese earlier on "squawk on the street" about the february print. take a listen.

>> we are happy to see positive jobs numbers what you also see in this report is that we have a long way to go we are still down 9.5 million jobs since the pandemic began, and that's a bigger job hole than any time curing the great recession. and we saw, while we saw some encouraging signs in leisure and hospitality in february, we also saw some real concerning signs as well. you saw 70,000 state an local educators laid off in february so we got a long way to go in this recovery, and that's part of the reason why we are going to be focusing and trying to get the rescue plan passed through congress this weekend. >> for more on the jobs number, goldman's chief economist jan hatzius. great to see you welcome. >> good to see you, carl >> you were at 225 above consensus, pretty good work there. i guess to what degree do you think the number could have been

better if there hadn't been weather-related disruptions? >> yeah, i think as we just heard, there was a couple of special factors. there was a large decline in construction employment, and that was very likely driven by weather. that's going to reverse in the next couple of months. and i think the drop in education employment by state and local governments, teachers, i think that also probably reverses it was down in february, but as the economy reopens in coming months we will see a boost there. so i think it was quite a strong report in terms of jobs in the establishment survey it was also a good household survey the one somewhat weaker area was the work week was down, i think that's probably also some weather in that. but overall i would definitely say this was a pretty solid

report but i also agree that there is still a long way to go the economy and the labor market are still far away from where they ultimately need to be >> and to the degree we get to that point, when we start talking about full employment and, obviously, the administration's focus is going to be on those areas of the economy that remain scarred to a degree, is that a situation that can be repaired by year end? >> i don't think it's going to be fully repaired. i think we are going to making a lot of progress in the remainder of 2021. we have gdp growth of almost 7% this year. we think the unemployment rate is going to continue to come down we think we will be pretty close to 4% by the end of the year, but i also think that the unemployment rate doesn't tell the full story labor force participation continues to be quite low, and it will take some time before we

have polled pulled the people bc into the work force. so i think it's going to stretch well beyond the end of the year to completely undo all this. >> a look at the jobs number today, when you look at that cbo report yesterday, which didn't even include that $1.9 trillion stimulus bill that's making its way through congress, but did say 202% projected federal debt level by 2051, when you take those data points into account, is $1.9 trillion in stimulus relief, fiscal relief, just a foregone conclusion, or could this actually be open to more cuts than people, i guess, the market is currently anticipating >> we think it's going to be fairly close to 1.9 trillion i mean, maybe it's not going to get there entirely we sort of said between 1.5 and 1.9 trillion but i think the it's going to be

a very large package and i think we will see probably another very large package in the middle of the year. that's going to be more focused on infrastructure and climate and other areas like that. that one is going to be spread over a much longer period. there is no question that we are getting a very large amount of fiscal support and that's one reason why we have such an optimistic growth forecast for the u.s. currently, the highest on the street for this year. >> i realize that the number that we got today, tomorrow line, it's pretty promising. when you look at the hiring, it's in the hardest hit service related sectors sort of representing the beginning of this reopening process in the u.s. economy on the other hand, just looking at the labor force participation rate, looking at the amount of people that condition continue to be underemployed, are there potentially permanent scars here in terms of people just leaving the labor force and not coming

back >> i totally agree with you. there is a long way to go. and there is, i think, a risk that you do get scars if it takes longer so far, i would say the evidence on scarring, on permanentdamag to the work force has been probably a little bit encouraging than a lot of us would have expected, say, last summer but i don't think we can take that for granted and i think that's why expansionary monetary and fiscal policy i think is the right call here because you want to minimize the tame it takes before you get to something more normal >> finally, jan, trying to watch the evolution of your view or your desk's view on inflation. i think i saw a couple days ago core pce peaking at 2.4 in april and on the wires today ten-year end of the year 1.9-ish. is the risk to the upside on that

>> well, on the one yield forecast, we just recut it so, i mean, the risk was on the upside relative to the previous forecast, market had sort of moved to all targets, and so we increased those numbers. i'd say it's more evenly balanced again on inflation, yes, we are likely to see a large increase over the next few months. we are currently at 1.5. we will get to almost 2.5 on cpce but that's driven by pretty short-term factors the big declines of last spring, we are getting some more idiosyncratic movements in health care inflation. so over the balance of the year, i think that's actually going to come down, and by the end of the year i think we will be closer to 2% again, and then for 2022 we might get some unwind of some of these special factors there is quite a lot of noise in

the inflation statistics, but the next few months the path is upward from here. >> right, markets definitely trying to brace for some of that noise. jan, fascinating work today. good to see you as always. have a good weekend. jan hatzius at goldman sachs. as we head to break, there is some outperformers in brick and mortar retail and that includes this week, names like gap, american eagle, and urban outfitters gap, by the way, will be the eighth straight weekly gain the company predicting a rebound in apparel sales this year as people emerge from lockdown. we will be back in a moment. stay with us

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shares of fedex largely flat today, down for the week, but up more than 90% a year ago, the company committing to be carbon-neutral by 2040, invests in vehicle electrification, sustainable energy and carbon sequestration. i caught up with coo rajesh subramaniam for a wide-ranging interview from vaccine distribution to economic recovery first, we did talk those climate goals and i asked what the cargo plane of the future is going to be powered by. here is what he told me. >> first of all, our routes in sustainability run deep. we were way ahead of the curve our chairman in particular, talking about infrastructure for electrification. it's not news really that we are committing to electrifying our fleets and that's a big part of the equation whether it comes to aircraft, aircraft represent 2% of carbon emissions globaler globally. one of the things we are pushing

for in sustainable air fuels and that, you know, one of the things if you read bill gates' book, there is a green premium, and especially so in sustainable fuels. so, yes, we want to use sustainable fuels for our aircraft, but some of the harder questions have to be now answered, and that's where our investment, our pledge, actually, to the yale center for natural carbon capture comes into play, we need to find solutions for carbon sequestration that drives energy efficiency in the aircraft sector as well. >> to shift gears a little bit, because i know you are busy at fedex these days, you are involved, the company is very involved in the distribution of vaccines we just had this third vaccine approved and we are seeing the initial supplies begin to roll out for johnson & johnson there woke what does that process entail

for fedex and given the fact that that specific vaccine is besides being one dose, it zrupt to be at these ultra cold temperatures, what does that process to transport it look like >> well, i tell you this you know, we are extremely proud of the mission here that we have given to move these vaccines finally in this pandemic we are extremely proud of the roll role that we play. i told but the infrastructure that we have that is core and essential to moving these vaccines. let me put it very simply. the ability to pick up something, one part of the world, and get to any other part of the world requires a network. and only a couple of companies in the world have the network required to do that. along with that also comes technological solutions. we launched a chip that looks like this that is strapped on every vaccine shipment we launched it last year and it's proved very timely. this is the most advanced sensor

there is that keeps track of where that package of the sh shipment is. and worked with microsoft, launched fedex surround, an advanced dsml platform that allows predictive capability not only tells you what is happening, but what is about to happen and predicts that so we are able to intervene as required so you put it all together, then we have this incredible system where we are delivering 100% service levels to deliver these vaccines that's the best way to make sure that the vaccines are good when it gets it the other side. so we have coaching facilities as needed. but mostly, on average, these vaccines stay in our system for less than 20 hours or so and with extraordinary advanced tracking and ability to intervene. >> i am curious just as we are starting to see the vaccine rollout, see signs of reopening, at least little bits of

reopening, whether in the u.s. or other parts of the world right now, how much of the strength we have seen in something like e-commerce, the demand in e-commerce, how much of that is going to be sustained as people start to leave their houses and go back out again >> well, i think, you know, before the pandemic started, e-comm e-commerce in retail was something in the 15% range we saw it spike up to 25% during the pandemic, and maybe settle back down slightly lower than that i totally expect going forward that it stays at a high level. i think customer habits have changed and, you know, i think we are seeing a step change and an acceleration of trends, and i don't think it's going back. in package terms, you know, when we put these numbers together, the 15 million packages in the industry per day in 2016, we

expected that to double to 100 million packages per day by 2026 well, we now expect that to happen by 2023 that's the three-year acceleration that i'm talking about. and i expect that to happen now with respect to the pandemic, i mean, as the pandemic goes away. so there is a lot of growth in the e-commerce sector to come. >> we also talked about what he is seeing in terms of supply chains globally right now as well, and we have been getting a lot of reports you are seeing a spike in freight rates and inventory for different companies getting snarled in terms of transportation around the world. we talked a little bit about what that looks like in terms of the flow of goods, we will continue to see strength in the freight rates. i also asked,guys, about his take on the global economy right now and more broadly recovery. keep in mind, feedex is in a quiet period

they are going to report their fiscal earnings in the next about two weeks or so, i believe march 18 we will probably get more details on all of that then. but he did say that the fastest growth that the company is seeing is in china and emerging asia right now and that's where they are seeing that first recovery and move to pre-pandemic levels, that th u.s. is following quickly and that he thinks europe will come after that just to sort of give you a sense of at least from a goods perspective what a company like fedex, which is in many ways, sort of, this bellwether as we have this conversation about things like recovery and also when you talk about freight rates inflation. carl >> indeed. i think the renewable part or at least the sustainable initiative is fascinating in the context after what we heard from gm and delta air lines will try to have

jet fuel be sustainable aviation fuel so renewable push is a big story but within transportation it's amazing. >> i think there's this expectation -- we started to see this happen within aerospace sector before the pandemic hit, but i think you could potentially start to see, david, some more m&a activity around some of those climate initiatives, as well, where a smarter more fuel efficient aircraft of the future is going to be in focus >> yeah. we've been talking about electric airplane taxies they are obviously much smaller. one would imagine you can get bigger over time >> and drones will fit into this don't forget >> what's an alternative fuel just so -- or one that's sustainable, i should say, as well what are we talking about there? >> i think you're talking about biofuels and when you talk about climate capture and those startups working on it and focus on that area, as well, there's

still a lot to come in terms of the innovation and probably some key names including some coming out of places like iceland right now for us to hone in on and take a look at, carl >> got to book a trip to iceland. it would be a good live shot let's take a break here. take a look at the biggest laggards on the s&p. most related to the cruise and travel industry getting slammed as norwegian prices a 4.6 million share offer at 30. that's 15% of the float. we're back in a moment no one likes to choose between safe or sporty. modern or reliable. we want both - we want a hybrid. so do banks.

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how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. over to rick santelli. rick >> good morning. thank you. well, we had the report, the big jobs report, and it was definitely better than expected. vaccines a shot in the arm to the jobs report and as steve liesman and many others reported out in our great jobs panel this morning, it takes an open business to have business but it takes confidence in the customers to go to the open business or taking care of both of those as we move toward more and more vaccinations as we pray we'll be ad, you know, after we

vaccinate everybody, and after distribution and that will be a big positive it now, a couple issues i find important. everybody is viewing the notion that the economy and the markets aren't the same. we've watched wild markets and mainly they're wild because the prism with which we view economy versus markets these days is through stimulus that stimulus focus is a bit peculiar because as we've learned you can have an economy that has good gdp but you can have a gdp jobs light recovery and considering how many jobs we've lost, that really isn't what people want that isn't what the government wants. that isn't what many investors are looking toward the future to see. the problem is that the model they're using is that the credit crisis they didn't go big enough 800 billion wasn't big enough. you needed to go bigger. i personally think government are rotten at creating jobs and

bigger they go, more debt we have it's going to end up as debt finally, the big issue is post-covid affects markets it's the talk of many sources. it's not only because dollar is a reserve currency and we'll have over 200% debt to gdp do you see our central bank or government turning over control of the foreign exchange markets i don't think so there's another chapter to this book carl, back to you. >> thank you rick santelli this morning coming up, we'll check in with imax on a day whermoe vie theaters open in new york city anyway "squawk alley" begins after this break. key portfolio events, all in one place. because when it's decision time, you need decision tech. only from fidelity.

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