tv Fast Money CNBC March 12, 2021 5:00pm-5:30pm EST
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especially when you have a fed meeting coming up on wednesday have to walk a fine ryan between acknowledging growth prospects along with saying we don't plan on really budging on their policy and maybe they're going to talk about what happens a year or two down the road. >> we are out of time on "closing bell" vchlt a lovely week thanks for filling in. "fast money" starts now. >> i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money. tonight on "fast" we're following major new developments in the wake of that massive hack attack one top security firm issuing a dire warning tonight that hackers could strike again in coming hours also ahead, a handful of big name companies getting inducted into the all time high club. chart of the week. stocks growing 20% since monday and giving new meaning to the
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term "high flyer." we'll reveal that name coming up >> tech took another tumbling. paypal is down 15% amd, nvidia down sales force down you get to choose your open future in the tech trade are the best days behind us or is this a big old buying opportunity? >> i think the best days are behind for tech. if this is a textbook rendition of why you don't buy growth in a rising rate environment. everyone on the panel has talked about it other panels on the show have talked about it. this is something where what's unbelievable to me, though, melissa is that everyone will rush back in human nature is you only buy what you know. so people think they understand
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an nvidia or a paypal or a sales force. so when they sell off, what do they think buying opportunity and until you really get burned a number of times, you continue to rush into that burning house. so i think when people start to expand their base of stocks that they, quote unquote, know, you're going to see this repetitive nature of getting burned time and time again so i do believe you're going to see the russell continue its outperformance i do believe you're going to see chemical names, material names, industrial names continue their outperformance, so i -- for the near term, tech's best days are behind it. >> that's quite a metaphor, to compare certain tech stocks to a burning house rushing in, getting burned, etc. can you look me straight in the eye and say alphabet's a burning house or apple's a burning house. we're seeing the selloff pretty
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much indiscriminate across the tech stocks, higher across the multiple names but the big cap tech stock, is that the way we should look at it? >> i wouldn't call them burning houses because fundamentally they're pretty solid i think that's what steve's getting at here. we're looking at last when there was a lot of volatility these were trading at a premium. what does that mean? it means that people are paying more for protection last week but this week they're trading at a discount a lot of that protection they bought at expensive prices they either unwound it or are not buying it think week the assem tri is really not in your favor you have to be really careful. we do trade the chop it's not to say that you get to buy on one day that's a dip and hold forever it's more of a trading environment. >> yeah. jeff, from a previous call when
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we were planning out the show, that's what it sounds like how you viewed the tech business, that it's tradable at this point. >> nay teen phrased it absolutely perfectly i agree with steve except with the cav yacht i think maybe it's tradable in the short term if you think about facebook, amazon, apple, nvidia, spotify, these are companies that are now at longer term technical support, to i think that's a good thing if you go to last week, you only had 20% of the triple qs that's usually a pretty good signal of a tradable low it's not always perfect timing but i think it gets you in the neighborhood i think sentiment in terms of bopped is becoming pretty bearish right now. rates could trade sideways a bit so you could have this condition in tech. i think that cyclicals rule the day longer term 678d i think a lot of it is coming in the
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summertime when we get those inflation fears. people are making more money because of the stimulus than they would if they had jobs. i think you can have this labor shortage just as the economy is starting to pick up steam. folks get concerned about inflation. it pushes nominal interest rates higher on the flip side, what that does is i think it pushes rates lower. so it continues to force people out and it's likely into cyclicals under those conditions >> bonawyn, do you think tech is oversold or do you think it's tradable or do you think the play is to go all in cyclical >> no. i definitely don't believe the play is going all in cyclicals but i think there's a lot of merit to what the other panelists are saying i like the question you asked. are the best dates behind it are we going back to a pandemic where tech is going to
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outperform that's not coming back so to expect to make four or 500% in these names, that's a bit outlandish do i expect that to be replicated in trt show or long time, no, i don't. that being said, don't throw out the baby with the bath water facebook, apple, they're trading in high 20s price to earnings. google trading at 30, 31 compare that to some names like crowd strike that are trading at two to 300 price to earning. i'm not of the nation saying tech as a whole, you can't invest or trade in it. i do think you need to slide further back on the risk curve into names that have for stress balance sheets that shown sustainable growth and have a use case now and in the future >> basically technology has to be viewed as a component in your portfolio. before, they were a source of growth in your portfolio now it sounds like you're saying
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they're a defensive -- i don't want to say a staple maybe that's overstating it, but sort of an anchor position not going to move too much but it's not going to burn you >> that's right. microsoft, i think you could still have it as a score of value. right. so again it's having to kind of reinstate vamp one's play book in the situation we're many. the rate, acceleration and the pace at which rates have accelerated has led to all this volatility i don't expect that to persist >> we're note going to be in a pandemic, knock on wood, we hope we aren't going in a pandemic again. that was the contact for this massive run in technology. in terms of the cyclical trade at some point doesn't it price in this huge amount of growth, pent-up demand, all that stimulus, the savings that people have stored away around the world. that's going to happen once, right.
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and then wayne >> right so let me just give a caveat before i answer that one i think you can make the case that apple, google, to agree with bonawyn and nadine and the general, apple, google, you can make a case, and microsoft, that they are value plays within tech they should therefore get hit the least out of that tech complex. but when you talk about pent-up demand, melissa, we've never come out after a pandemic. no one has any clue what the pent-up demand is going to be. i think it's going to outpace everybody's sort of intuition as to how big it's going to be. could you imagine? people are going to take trips they never thought about taking. people are going to be taken out to dinner. i've seen sidewalks crowded, stores crowded, restaurants crowded, all within legal limits, of course, but there's going to be so much more than any of us can possibly imagine, so to put a tag on it -- and by the way, couple that with the fact that cyclicals and value
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stocks have underperformed for the last 15 years. so once everyone starts to take a look at what a cyclical and what a real diversified chemical -- >> but -- >> stock looks like, then you're going to see -- >> you are making if case -- you are making the case that people are making for technology and valuations, which is valuations i don't want to say don't matter but though are valued less we don't know how brisk the business will be, so transfer you can't judge a stock by what it's trading for now >> correct i think you're going to sigh this economy blow through the roof the most clubs view, and i'm guilty of it, too. i'm waiting for that selloff to happen the problem is, things look too good in the economy. you're going to have a blow through the roof economy that's going to trip over itself.
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and the most unconsensus things, a nonconsensus thing is that the s&p looks like you're going to rip through 4,000 and get to 4500 nobody's saying that except for a handful of people. >> all right well, there are a few stand out stocks today we want to see if you liked them 2345i78s like john deere, gm, goldman sachs. which these stocks gotten ahead of themselves? >> never gets old. trade it or foid it. let's start out 37%. trade it or fade it, nadine? >> i think you trade it on an intermediate term but you fade it today weir looking at a risk range of five to one to the down side soed you obviously don't want to buy into that. but you want to hold it from intermediate term trade if you can get it >> all right
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bonawyn, what do you say >> i think you've got to fade this thing it's up about 40% since january. it's up above its prepandemic high it's price to earnings are above its prepandemic highs. this to me is an example of lack of value within value. >> all right let's move on to draftkings, up 54% this year. steve grasso >> i'm going to say fade this one. now, i get the whole idea of why it's been popular, and i do understand that we're starting to see sports open back up and that's seen as a tail wind i think the biggest tail wind for the stock has probably lost its steam. i'd rather go with the more traditional casino players like a pen gaming, an mgm on an economy reopening versus an online thing like draftkings >> i'm going to guess that jeff mills thinks you're wrong. jeff, what do you say? >> i am going to trade this one.
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it's been an interesting stock, actually it's bucked the trend. bonawyn said during our call earlier today. these high flying growth names pen were down. draftkings was up. although i can understand a view that over $70 it's pricing in some of this news but massive pent-up demand you're talking $2 trillion in excess consumer savings. you have the stimulus checks rolling out. i think there's an underestimation of what the market is going to look like if you go to super bowl, not a good look for the companies at that point in time you're talking about a 60-plus percent in gambling. there's a lot of room here you still have a ton of legal catalysts in terms of legislation. >> darden restaurants, the owner of olive garden. nadine, what do you say? >> you know, you trade it on the intermediate term, it's going to keep with the reopening plays but you got to fade it on the
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near term, again, five to one down side. they have trouble hiring people. food and labor costs are going up the plan for digital, what they've learned is that people want to go to their restaurants. they don't want to take it out as people come back into the restaurants, vaccines are given and, you know, get your two-month wait what you find is people will start cannibalizing one part of the business 40s other >> jeff. >> i'm going to trade it quick if you go back to the summertime, field goalo dechow, they were starting to ease covid restrictions they usually sell about 500 premium stakes a week. anecdotal but i think it's emblematic of the kind of spending we're going to see. darden has been doing a good job controlling costs. if you look out to 22 where earnings will be a little more
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normalized, i think the valuation makes sense. >> general motors up 40% this year bonawyn, trade it or fade it >> i'm trading this one. i think this falls squarely into that steve has come up here and said time and time again this is a name, you've seen strength in durables its has a logistical prowess to take advantage of what we're going to see in demand going forward. i'm trading this one hats off to steve. >> a major cyber security is warning a massive hack attack may be coming within the next few hours. we've got the full report next later, charts of the week. the stock is rallying 20% since monday we'll trooefl name and the trade when "fast money" returns. and i'd like your best new smartphone deal. oh do ya? actually it's for both new and existing customers. i feel silly.
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welcome back to "fast money. we're following new developments on the massive hack attack one top security firmishing a major warning tonight. let's get details. >> yeah. melissa. here's something to keep an eye on a warning from mandiant. the vice president point issing out the possibility of potential ransom ware attacks.
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he says we are anticipating more exploitation of the exchange vulnerable abilities by criminal ransom corporations may pose a greater risk as they disrupt organizations and even extort victims by releasing stolen e-mails. so this is all the follow taupe that microsoft exchange hack that we saw reported on so extensively last week. over at the white house we saw the national security advisor jake sullivan admit that the administration is struggling to get its arms around the scope of this entire attack here's what he sid >> the precise number of systems that have been exposed by this vulnerability or ex plated by ransom ware hackers or others, we're working with the private sector to determine that it is certainly the case that maligned actors are still in
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these microsoft exchange systems which is why we've pushed so hard to get those patched. >> saying the bad guys are still in a lot of these servers. we think the cyber security industry broadly thinks the bad guys are the chinese the white house not pointing fingers specifically at the chinese government but the way this ransom ware works, is that the companies that are being hit hard by it may already know that they've been hit hard by it and someone is extorting them already. we could see that start to happen in the coming days, if those companies decide, you knows what, we're not going to pay the ex extortionists jai read that an a third of customers have not patched their system yet i'm wondering if they went ahead and patched their system if that could protect them from this next layer >> well, it's something we have to do and the white house is
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urging everybody to patch their systems. pay attention to what the warnings were on this. they put out exactly what you need to do patching your system now is a little bit like locking the front door with the burglar still in the house you still somewhere to go through your entire house and make sure there's nobody left inside and if you find somebody, though them out the window you have to lock the door. >> thank you, this week, cyber security names, a lot of them have done quite well one is up 8%, 9% jeff mills, hacks like this, does this underscore -- well, obviously it underscores the need for cyber security. does it get corporations to increase spending? >> no doubt. whether it's now or later, companies are going to have to increase spending. this is the new front line this is not going anywhere companies that are exposed to it are subject to a massive growth
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tail we're we talk about pallen tear, at its core, it's data related. to paint get a view of your network in real time, i think a company like pal an tear can do really well. we talked about 22 as being the support level. it held nicely as some of those spac-time names are not. >> a lot of names got caught up in the software trend, nadine, so would you still stick with them as a group or do they get swept up >> this is exactly the type of business you then want to trade, right? so even if you have a broad brush day where all tech goes down, what you're saying, what steve is saying, is that secular trend, this was not just a beneficiary of the pandemic, and there's going to be increased growth and need for companies to spend on it, to train on it, and it obviously the increase in
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data and the need for data centers and fsoftware in those systems. it is something you can hold on to >> up next, we'll reveal our chart of the week, this stock taking flight and rallying more ooan 60% since monday. whps that was the clue. we'll reveal this high flyer when "fast" returns. hey, dad! hey, son! no dad, it's a video call. you got to move the phone in front of you like..like it's a mirror, dad. you know? alright, okay. how's that? is that how you hold a mirror? [ding] power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools and interactive charts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the most and $0 commissions
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fade it. but would you stick with it? >> this is one of if you hook at our chart, it built a heck of a base where things were probably unknown. now you're starting to see the opening-reopening of the economy. if you chart this one on -- i like looking at the fib levels if you go to the prior high before pandemic started to the pandemic low, you come up with a 50% reinstate trace, that's $267 the to be is above that now. technicians like to sell the stock between the 50 and the 618. the 6 18 is about $309 i would trade it >> won win, what would you say >> i'm happy to miss this one. i think this is testament to their opening trade but the whole enterprise value swelling because of ballooning debt balances gives me pause. i'm glad to raise my hand and
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say, you know what, i'll miss it >> would you rather boeing or an airline stock? >> yeah. perfect question because i've been saying i would rather play airlines to get that data of increased travel my favorite airlines, which is southwest, which i've been talking about for a number of months, that's above the prepandemic highs. let's go around the horn nadine, what do you say? >> i'd say dupree on the night topic. got to love the duty free shopping they've upgraded the shopping areas, as luxury travellers get going, this one's going to win >> all right bonawyn? >> speaking of the reopening tray, i think you can play momentum carnival cruise is my preference there, but i'd be trading that >> steve grasso. >> staying solid with spac
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wpf is due for a heck of a bounce it's time to end this silly under performance wpf. buy it >> jeff. >> i like ilumina. i fast pitched the stock a few months back. it had a huge run. it's come back nicely. i would definitely be a buyer here >> thanks, automatic that does it for us here on "fast money. we'll see you back here on money. options action is up after this quick break.
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it's friday, in dice you didn't know. that means options action. welcome. here's what's on tap tonight >> maligned, marooned, meaningless. just three m words the market thinks of when it thinks of 3m carter worth thinks very differently. find out why this left for dead industrial could be on the verge of its own revolution. then, keeping with the theme, tony zhang is also bringing good things to life find out why he's jumping into
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