and the air travel hitting the highest level since the pandemic began it is monday, march 15th don't beware the ides of march embrace them "squawk box" begins now. >> good morning. welcome to cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew sorkin the dow is up by 142 points. this is after an impressive week last week for the dow. the dow up 4% last week. the best weekly performance since november of last year. the dow and s&p 500 closing at record highs and the russell

2,000 and the dow transports not the same story with the nasdaq nasdaq down 6% from the all-tim high there is no sector more than 10% from its 52-week high. that tells you about how far we've come and how fast in the last year since the lockdown when you saw the huge dropdowns in markets we should take a look at treasury yields. on friday, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year reached 147.6 basis points the highest since september of 2015 the 10-year is 6.14% as joe mentioned, bitcoin surging over the weekend the move on saturday is the first time the price topped $60,000. it surged above $61,000 before pulling back in a big way. down 7% this morning

drop of $4,200 5 55,733 is the last change. we have to bring up the stack. i forget where we left it on friday the "squawk stack." >> this is our default stack for now. we will see what you day brings. >> maybe the 10-year should be the 10-year/2-year spread. we should look at that 147.6 basis points on friday highest level in five and a half years. if we are watching that spread >> there it is i don't know maybe get gamestop 5% barely registers i'm watching the 10-year

163. 164. you know, that 1.7 would be new. >> i you want to put one of the airlines in there. >> is it moving? it can't be -- >> it doesn't have to be moving. that's the thing. >> it doesn't have squawk stack. >> we have stuff in there. >> you like watching paint dry >> we have stuff in there hardly moving >> what? what is hardly moving? >> nasdaq futures. >> it's hot. >> nasdaq futures. >> what is dow futures doing nothing. zero >> we can do the index, i guess. >> why are we watching the nasdaq 100 >> i don't know. we watched it last week. that was the one that when we were looking at the initial trade on that -- remember friday we had big scary moves a week

ago friday and monday -- but for the week, it was less than the dow. it was up 3% >> i don't know what it is trading. how does a spotify do on a day after the grammys? maybe you put newsy stocks >> don't the oscar nominations come out they are coming soon is that today? >> i don't know. >> are oscars today? >> i do know why the ides of march is a good thing. >> we are talking about that >> no spoiler alert. >> why my tie -- not because it makes me look thinner. scottie dogs on my tie we should put that on the

"squawk stack. >> we have news about the astrazeneca vaccine that joe highlighted. ireland suspended the vaccine following reports of blood clotting denmark and norway and iceland suspended it after the cluster of serious blood clotting cases. w.h.o. said there is no connection between the vaccine and blood clotting the vaccine is not approved in the united states. a big debate of the united states which to my understanding is we have a supply of this and a debate if we should be giving it back. >> you hear the weird anecdotal evidence not evidence, but strange things that happened.

did you see marvin hagler passed away tommy "hitman" hearns. he said hagler was in the emergency room over the vaccine. that's not what the family was saying the blood clotting was a concern. you see the cases of the young mother she was in her 30s and died after the second dose. you see those things i don't know we're quick to mention it in a lot of the press, but i'm not sure if there is any reason to think with such huge trials and the safety involved. it is hard to say you need more information. >> it doesn't dissuade me from wanting the shot >> it wouldn't we talked and the reason we need a name

bitcoin is 61,7. it was low 55. that is 10%. that's a correction mode already, right do you call that a correction already when it hits 61,7 on saturday >> what do you call it up 10% in a matter of a couple days. >> a new bull market and new correction and bear market in the space of a week. the ual is up a lot. it is up more than a point, sorkin >> i think it was in the stock. >> i don't know about the spotify. we have to do something for hollywood, too let's get to dr. fauci's warning of the potential for another surng. >> surge >> comcast hollywood. >> the default stock to watch since we all know. on "meet the press," dr. fauci

said don't spike the ball on the 5 yard line. wait for the end zone. >> numbers have gone down nicely and in a steep decline in the last couple weeks, we had a plateauing of infection. the thing that concerns me because history proves that i should be concerned is when you get a plateau at a level around 60,000 new infections per day, there is always a risk of another surge. that is what we want to avoid. we are going in the right directions that's why i get so anxious when i hear pulling back completely on public health measures like saying no more masks that is a risky business when you do that. >> dr. fauci blamed the surge of cases in europe on relaxation of safety measures. germany's infectious disease specialist say there are clear signs of a thirdwave

italy is considering another lockdown spanning the easter holiday. becky. thanks, joe. air travel is picking up tsa officers screened 1.3 million people on friday the highest number of passengers on a single day in a year. at the low point last year, 80,000 passengers were screened. we will talk to the ceo of spirit airlines coming up in the next hour. andrew can i just say we're a year out from the original conversation of bailout. you know what i'm about to say think about all of the money chasing all of the investment opportunities now. companies not making money until 2025 or 2026 spacs. craziness. to the cruise business there was private capital for

these businesses there was always private capital. >> the question on the other side is, what would have happened to the employees of the airlines left to their own devices, they may have laido off all of the employees. the question is how would the government pay for them? what was more expensive for the government keep them in the jobs with health care or put them on the unemployment lines and pick up there for them and health care costs along the way. >> i understand. >> it is a question. you can definitely have the argument. >> we decided this was a particularly unique -- >> you should be happy you are looking at a viable airline. you love going on exotic and beautiful vacations. where is that place you went bhu bhutan don't act like you don't need

it you are all for spending $1.9 trillion and to throw more at it >> i'm not, joe. >> i thought we were supposed to err on the side of doing more and then as it falls through the cracks, fine museum of modern art here and a couple of things there we need the airline industry we need the employees. we don't need -- >> joe, we -- >> we need to monitor the children in first class. >> i'm glad you like to socialize losses and you love crony capitalism >> that is just like some weird -- >> that's exactly what happened here >> that's the only time you have a problem with it. >> the ceos have taken profits after years of buy backs the point i'm making with a bit of perspective, given how much

money sloshing around the market and no chance of making money for years and think there is no private market that could have done this and the taxpayers put the money in with very little upside think where the stocks for the airlines were a year ago compared to today and the benefit the taxpayer is not getting. that's the point do i want to help the airline employees? 100% 100% do i want to help the airline shareholders absolutely not you shouldn't either, joe. >> okay. >> andrew, your thought is if they had gotten some stake in the companies -- >> mnuchin negotiated. >> he did that the first time. >> very tiny a sliver baby money when you think about what happened to the airlines and the

taxpayer put up the risk and what happened on the other side. with a little bit of perspective, now we have a year, you can see was it a mistake not to negotiate harder? how about that >> i don't know. i can tell you i will never tell you how to think, andrew, about things we disagree with. we will disagree i would never presume to tell you that you know, i'm not going to change the way i think because you told me i had to anyway, futures pointing to gains at the open. we will talk strategy. later, the ceo of the auction house of sotherby's talks about the nfts

"squawk box" is coming back. ade

receiving stimulus checks, we

have barry knapp, managing partner of ironside macroeconomics valerie, if you had to pick the top three things to watch is the $1,400 checks or stimulus package itself is that as important as just the reopening trade and how much do we have to be concerned w with with rising interest rates? >> i think the fiscal stimulus and reopening trade are inter related. i'm also interested in the long-term trade. the fiscal stimulus will go to low and moderate households. it will create a bridge in the process of vaccination and trying to control the vaccine

for individuals who have been most adversely affected. it will create consumer spending in the lower and moderate income cohorts. in addition to that, the financials where we were k concerned of the credit quality and the balance sheets, it is not as pessimistic as we expected those are inter related. >> barry, in trying to figure out what you are trying to say here rising inflation and come sensation and tail winds at maximum velocity what do you mean >> there are three tailwinds that were big drivers. global manufacturing and trade recovery from the pandemic, but the trade war. in the second quarter as supply chains clear, that will be maximum verylocity if you will

trade and manufacturing activity to create a fair bit of dollars as well. u.s. is a bigger i mporter than exporter that will create liquidity in itself the second is capital spending that was depressed by the trade war. you have seen a pick up in the r & d with the tech companies. capital spending with equipment picked up. that should accelerate and become increasingly apparent in the second quarter good long-term news for the market from the productivity and hiring perspective you need to put bodies in the seeds seats if you invest capital. the third tailwind is inflation and prices going up as a consequence. all of those moving together in the second quarter because of the liquidity from the treasury drawing down the general account. checks are going out fed has purchases continuing

the fed determining not to talk about tapering too soon. second quarter you will have all of those things really at their maximum point of velocity. it is hard to see how the stock market can have a setback in that environment. >> valerie, we will pay for some of this stuff. the stimulus deal is done. that is what the journal is pointing to now. the powers that be will figure out if we borrow more or tax could that be a potential headwind down the road higher taxes more borrowing either way, we have to pay the piper some day for all this stimulus >> i think certainly that those issues will be worked out in due course i don't know they will necessarily be determinative when i'm looking at stocks and trying to understand some of the fundamental drivers, i'm really

focused on the long-term secular trend. climate is very important. it is interesting to see companies are making commitments. they are investing in capital. they are investing in r & d as my colleague just mentioned. focused on renewable energy. that is absent any regulation or carbon tax or anything of that nature it is based on how they view the business opportunities and the economic return. i'm really focused on companies that are leaning into that, so to speak >> so, barry, is that one of your things? i don't know what you tell some pipeline workers making $120,000 and just switch to solar and make $35,000 is that a tailwind for the economy to try to, i don't know, fix the climate? >> well, it is a tailwind for

energy stocks. you know it is pretty clear the more restrictions you put on drilling for more oil and gas, the higher the price is likely to go over time we are getting a recovery effect. >> is that a positive for the economy? the new green deal would be an issue, would it not? >> not really. no, i don't see that as a big positive i think that will promote the deglobalization trend because companies will have to describe why they have the big carbon footprint from supply chains stretched all over the world that is in the same direction of globalization and rebuilding the capital stock. it is not a big net positive my concerns with the borrowing, joe, this is the first time in my career where rates are moving up not because growth is getting better, which it is, and not because of inflation expectation

is going up, which it is it is going up because of the borr borrowing. y you can see it on the back end the 30-year rate is rising rapidly. that started on january 5th. no coincidence, the start of the blue wave the market is saying we are doing too much borrowing in the short-run, it is not a problem, but in the long-run, it does call into question theories like mmt and whether the u.s.out to be the reserve currency >> we will see we have been waiting for the roosters to come home and roost -- roosters? swallows >> chickens come home to roost is the saying. >> somebody is coming home even eventually, some day valerie and barry, thank you both for appearing on this

monday ides of march. do not beware. embrace them the 15th of the month. ides of other months >> my firstborn's birthday, joe. >> your what it's my son's birthday we'll talk about that. it's a good birthday thanks >> thanks, very much coming up on the other side of the break. big tech crackdown taking place in beijing we go live to china on the government moves on alibaba and tensen here is the latest roche is buying genmark. $1.8 billion it provides diagnostic tests designed to detect pathogens from a single patient sample shares jumping on that news.

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welcome back to "squawk box. we have the big crackdown on alibaba. good morning, eunice >> reporter: thank you big tech is bracing for changes. the ipo was pulled and the government has been signals to ramp up the effort on the monday open monopolies. just today, the market regulator said beijing would roll out years to tighten online

companies. the expectation is beijing wants to be at the heart of the industry to regulate tech and also to make sure that companies, for example, work together with sharing data so that the country can finally realize one of its own dreams create a credit scoring system or for beijing to put more money into new technology. the expectation is that state-run private equity company or pe funds are putting a lot of money in the new its now another heexpectation is the companies will see slower growth a.n.t. is regulated like a bank. that would cut off some lucratis offering, but the merchants will

have less access to capital. overall, people are seeing expecting the slower growth. finally, the expectation here is beijing will cast a wider net. we already saw the impact of some of the announcements on friday as well as today in ten sent stock the business is seen as worth $100 billion or so and very similar to alibaba and alipay. it is still there. the expectation is ten cent will see the tech business regulated in the same way. also on friday, people were talking a lot about how beijing fined 12 companies these were all major tech names. you would know them. alibaba, didi.

just some of them. the fines were not very large by the regulator. it was seen as a way to remind the companies of who is boss andrew >> eunice, is there a conversation now and we talked about this about the chinese companies and relation to u.s. companies and size and scale i have to imagine if you are mark zuckerberg today or google or any of the big tech companies, this is not good news for you, oddly enough. you are seeing in the biden administration, tim woo just joining the administration a trust buster, if you will. a number of other people joining the administration then if they get tough in china, it takes away the argument that mark zuckerberg and others used which is don't regulate us if you do, we're not going to compete with china if china is regulating, it makes them easier for the folks in the u.s. to regulate is there any conversation about

that >> reporter: there is conversation about it, but not in the same vain i think people are not worried about the prospects for facebook and what will happen with mark zuckerberg, but people are looking at it saying in the u.s., and in europe, too you see the governments very wary about the big tech. that is similar to what we see in china however, the difference between china and the u.s. is that mark zuckerberg will have his day in court. whereas here in china, people don't necessarily think they will get their day in court. that at the end of the day, it is whatever beijing wants and a lot of mystery of how and when the decisions are made >> okay. eunice yoon, thank you we will have more of the conversation looking forward to seeing you soon b becks. thanks, andrew when we come back, dr. scott

go gottlieb will weigh in on the vaccines in europe. and ahead of the open, penn national and caesars are higher in the market after news of the four are joining the s&p 500 that comes after the shuffle in trading on march 22nd. we'll be right back. executive edge is sponsored by at&t business our people and network will help keep you connected let's take care of business. okay, imagine this... your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee... yeah i should've just led with that...

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there are a couple of changes to the squawk stack. tesla is moving a little with the filing, the company is adding the title of techno king of tesla to elon musk. >> what? >> the cfo is getting the title of master of coin. that's a "game of thrones" thing. a couple of masters of coin i think in that series >> this is a corporate trolling is what this is.

>> i don't know where it is. i want comcast to be added the reason you mentioned it, becky, i don't know if we can add it quickly take the dow jones industrial average out. the oscars nick jonas and his wife announcing all 23 categories at 8:19 effic initially the best original score "soul" might be nominated. you know who may remember the oscar? >> that's a disney film. >> and trent resnor of nine inch nails. >> really? >> nick jonas and his wife are announcing all of these. i haven't seen any have you seen any? my son tells me about

"nomadland." >> "soul" is a fun film. >> i saw "soul." >> you saw "soul." could be another oscar for the lady from "fargo." she just won one for the other one. "six billboards. she could win another one. talk to me you got her name, sorkin the lady she wins frances mcdormatt. let's get to the fight of covid. dr. fauci is pointing to a surge of cases in europe as a cautionary tale. talking about this with me now is dr. scott gottlieb. he serves on the board of pfizer in the latest article, he tells

us what to expect from schools this fall. scott, you have been with us every week for the last year helping guide us through what is happening with these things. i have to say, i've been feeling good about the direction in the united states with the case count coming down and vaccinations happening at a rapid clip you read what is happening in u europe and how things are on the rise again we are in a different boat we are getting vaccines out quickly. do we need to worry about another upswing in cases here? >> i think we should be concerned that things can turn in a direction that we are not predicting right now, you are seeing this becoming prevalent across the united states. it is more than 50% of cases in texas and florida and southern california you are not seeing the big upswing in cases that we might have expected once that variant claimed hold in the united states the reason is a lot of prior infection and immunity in the

population we are vaccinating aggressively against it earlier, we were four to six weeks behind europe and we were. everything that happened in europe eventually happened here. now the tables have turned we are ahead of europe i don't think the conditions and situations in europe is predictive of what is happening here we have more immunity from prior infection, which they have as well, but from vaccinations. the fact we have not seen the coronavirus upsurge again with a fourth wave as this strain is prevalent across the united states the one thing we talked about is new york this 1526 mutation is gaining a foothold here. half of the cases of 1526 have the same mutation as the south african variant. that could make it more resistance to the vaccines and more likely people get reinfected we don't understand that mutation well. that is a cause of concern

we need to watch that pretty clo closely. >> scott, in terms of the vaccine roll yout. it seems to me things are moving along at a rapid clip. millions of people are getting vaccinated every day dr. fauci was talking about the concerns of people who won't get vaccinated and don't want to get the vaccine at this point. i know you said by may or maybe earlier, by april, a glut of the vaccine sitting around what is going to happen? how quickly can we convince those people they should get vaccinated >> i do believe by early april this is going to be wide open in many states. you will see broader availability of the vaccine and supply will out pace demand. i think everyone will be able to schedule an appointment in april. we have seen michigan do that. that is both good news and bad news good news because of the broader

availability it means demand is not as brisk. as you move down the ages continuum, the demand is not as deep as older individuals. you have to do more to stimulate demand there is not hesitancy there are people hesitant, but it is complyplacency among young people people who care for families or work 9:00 to 9:00, cannot sign up we need to open clinics that are 24/7 with no appointment required show up. we need to get vaccines in the hands of doctors in the communities to have trusted inter i in intermediaries to vaccinate people most of the states are not doing public service campaigns because they are reluctant because they have more demand than supply

we should not stimulate additional demand. that is not something you can turn on. you cannot turn on a commercial and stimulate demand we need to do that right now start the message to younger individuals who may feel less at risk that they should be vaccinated >> andrew? >> scott, i wanted to go back to this and it will sound selfish we all live and work around new york city at the moment. in terms of the variant, you said you are concerned about it, but for those people who are getting vaccines now, how should they change their behavior and not relative to somebody who might be getting the vaccine in chicago or in san francisco or in austin, texas do you see a distinction in terms of the behavior should be after getting vaccinated >> that's the problem. we don't really know

you know, right now, most people would say no because the 1526 variant is unknown half of the cases of 1526 and you look on the new york city web site with the sequences they have done with 5,000 or 6,000 sequences, almost 1,000 of them, the 1526 mutation, some of the hesequencing they are doing is bias of discovering the mu mutation half of the cases of 1526 have that 484 mutation. that changes to the domain in the south african variant that makes that variant more impervious to the vaccine. 1526 is a different various yent there may be more from other parts of the virus we don't know the absnswer to te question that is at the difficult period

where the variant is spreading we don't understand it i spent a lot of time over the weekend who had a lot of expertise in this. they think b-117 will take over and being the prevalent strain in new york and crowd it out i think we are in the uncertain period for the next two weeks that we don't understand the direction the new variant is going in the other problem is cases in new york are plateaued hospitalizations are still going down slowly. the question is how do you explain that it might be behavior people are going out more. >> dr. gottlieb thank you. we will talk to you again later this week. >> thanks, a lot when we come back, elizabeth holmes requesting another delay to her trial over alleged fraud at theranos. we will tell you why next. later, we talk to the ceo of spirit airlines about air travel

demand and how the industry is bouncing back. "squawk box will be back after a quick break. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

welcome back the new twist in the theranos court case elizabeth holmes is pregnant according to court documents holmes is expected to give birth in july and requesting her trial to be defrauding investors be delayed. andrew. thank you, becky coming up, we will get you caught up on the tech stories you need to know including competition in the tech world a crazy valuation for stripe we will see. close to $100 billion. "squawk box" returns after this.

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welcome back to "squawk. the fintech set unknown for soft we are, raised $600 million. ready for this, valuation of $95 billion. the highest valued fintech company in not just the country but the world. joining us emily glazer from "the wall street journal." and dan prymack from ax saxios. three times, guys, dan, what do you make of this >> for starters, understand the context here, strike raised at a $35 billion valuation last april. it gained more than it's worth completely last april. what i make of it is that money is not free, but it's pretty cheap right now. and that anybody wants to invest wherever they can take

stripe has been the company, stubbornly noncommittal about this payment >> let's pivot to another story. we've been talking about it all morning, elon musk and tesla, emily. i can't figure out what i'm supposed to think anymore. you always say don't bet against elon musk, the man's a jgenius he's calling himself the king. he's got a new title for cfo, technoking i'm not sure if he's trolling us, i don't know what to make about that meanwhile there's a lawsuitle out there, from a tweet, from his shareholders and news hundreds of tesla workers tested positive for covid over the plants in the last year. how should we be thinking about mr. musk at these times? >> how should we be thinking about mr. musk at any times,

andrews. s m this is not the first time he's run into trouble tweeting he got dinged by the s.e.c. for his tweets about the company an potential deals. he kind of likes to shock and surprise in some ways, this is normal behavior for him i think we've gotten used to treating tesla as its own unique company. that does not mean it's not above the law. that elon musk shouldn't be watching what he's tweeting. all of the investors love it and then shorting the stocks i think we can use the story that we see from him >> dan, do you think a judge at some point is really going to throw the book at this guy i mean that in the context of a lawsuit? i mean that in the context of workers testing positive >> i don't know about a judge. the thing that emily brought up

with elon and the deal with the saudi arabia, i was surprised that they didn't come at him harder they could have thrown the book. the question is the question would be if there was a violation of safety protocols if there was something he did which actually caused harm and did anybody die, which i don't think we know. >> emily, real quick, your paper in the journal, a smart story about all of the states taking different approaches to big tech what that ultimately could mean. it almost seems a little like california with emissions standards and what that does to vehicle makers if every state in the united states comes up for their own rules and laws for what the app should be on the apple phone, by the way, what happens? >> well, this is something that i think some in big tech were working for. for states to come up with their own big of regulating.

and it's the next battle a lot of these companies have to fight with something that they're struggling with. we're seeing something big where states are coming up with their own issues while the banks are also fighting federal arguments on another front >> emily glazer and dan pry mac, great to see you both. coming up, stimulus payments being sent out to millions of americans. and later, mike novogratz is talking about wh'sat driving bitcoin prices i mean, what can you say "squawk box" will be right back.

stocks looking to keep the momentum moving in the new trading week with the dow and s&p 500 hovering at record highs. bitcoin taking a breathe after hitting yet another new high we're going to speak to bitcoin bull mike novo ggratz with the latest move in crypto. and the latest on tsa, people speak to the ceo of spirit airlines with the comeback and the challenges still ahead as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪

good morning, welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc i'm and drew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. take a look at u.s. equity futures on this monday morning 2 1/2 hours before the markets expecting to open. we're showing you bitcoin, by the way, at $56,000 after reaching about $61,000 over the weekend. but the dow looks like it will open 116 points higher nasdaq up 29 points. s&p 500 about 8 points joe. some headlines we're talking about at this hour gasoline prices have been surging in the recent weeks. the latest lundberg survey shows up 25 centers over the past two weeks. $289 a gallon. prices are up 72 cents since november 20th. and a federal judge has denied google's request that a case involving its google chrome browser thrown out

google is accused of collecting data when incognito mode does. and carnival ceo arnold donald, two first names, with the cruise industry facings at least two more difficult years he told the financial times that the carnival's full fleet could be sailing by the end of the year, it's going to take at least 2023 for revenue to recover to precovid level. becky. >> thanks, joe the irs is now pumping out stimulus checks to millions of americans as part of that $1.9 tril covid relief plan ylan mui joins us now. >> good morning, becky, stimulus payments started showing up in bank accounts over the weekend and continue to roll out over the next few days, treasur

secretary janet yellen reports that the money along with that $1.9 trillion relief package would end up juicing the job market saying we are now charting a very different course i expect we could reach full employment by as soon as next year.first stimulus payments go out to those with direct governments to the irs and some households will receive checks or debit cards. there's been a concern about fees that some banhouseholds have to pay to access the money. the costs range from $8 to as much as $195 for a family of five the challenge with the pre-paid cards is some people thought it was a scam and they didn't activate it right away officials say that the real card is a visa and that the envelope

will prominently display the treasury department seal, becky. >> ylan, now that we've got this $1.9rillion package. the talk is how to pay for it. there are some talks that tax hikes could be wrapped into the infrastructure plan. what do you think? >> well, the treasurecy secretary said over the weekend that they are working on a plan to address the deficit, one assumes by raising tax revenue in some of the ways that president biden had suggested doing that during his campaign was to raise the top rate on high-income households back to that 39% level that it was before the tax cuts that went into effect in 2017. raising the corporate rate back from 21% to 28%. as well as expanding the estate tax or even insuring those who make over $1 million pay capital gains at their normal tax income rate those are a few options that

they laid out on the campaign trail and makes sense those are the items to pair with the infrastructure package i think the big question is is it all rolled up into one big piece of legislation or do they pick and choose some of those provisions to offset the cost of an infrastructure package they might roll out. all of those decisions are still tbd, part of the conversation that both the white house and capitol hill are having right now. >> it gets trickier from here because you've got 50 democrats that you have to wrangle, veral them, including marching has expressed concerns ylan, thanks for joining us. our next guest says given the amount of stimulus to course through the system it's going to be a minor miracle if there is it an inflation scare. jason, a lot of stimulus

we've almost got toten to the pt where it's almost a show me if it has an effect rates are going up mmt and other things, no one things we're sort of lulled into thinking that inflation is not going to be really be a long-term problem. maybe just a blip, do you think we're wrong? >> well, i don't think -- we don't know, naturally. and the fed is telling us that it's going to be transitory. and i think, you know, very much like an opposite book end of what volker told you, he was just focusing on one part of his mandate which was price stability in the late '70s, early '80s powell is telling you they're just focused on full employment. but in the lead-in here, joe, you were talking about gas prices being up 25 cents there's no question, in my opinion, that you're going to get heightened -- labor market

still has got ways to go but if you're looking at commodity prices, looking at just the amount of money teed up that we know there are very few things that are gimmes in this business. but we know you're going to have something probably in the order of 8% to 10% phenomenal gdp growth in the economy. it's virtually -- unless there's some other part of that, it's just hard not to see there being inflationary pressures with that kind of money going through the system >> so, you feel like the market is getting accustomed to the idea that long-term rates will move higher. but you also point out tech stocks, because they're already trading on some lofty terminal values and that's the ones that when rates go up at the could be affected is it going to be a problem? or is the market getting accustomed to the idea of it >> listen, joe, there's nothing

more normal until my opinion, in the middle of the cycle having rates and stocks go up the real money or the alpha, we talk about to be made is really in sector rotation and stock selection than just overall data just being in the market i think tech has had an incredible run the stocks not only are they trading at pretty rocky valuations, i would say they've been unusually benefited by the pandemic and as the economy reopens, there's going to be other choices for investors. so, i think this move towards value, in my opinion, it has legs i think the move towards small caps i think that has legs as well. which is to say you've been in the desert for 11 years, it doesn't seem likely, to me, that's going to be kind of a six-month or one-year phenomenon this could be with us for a while. the hard part is, of course, what do you do for an encore

and you're hoping this will be a test of economics versus contains canesism. and what you're providing for in 2021 >> well, the piece in the journal is how we pay for what we'respending, the 1.9 trillion, but also talking maybe an infrastructure bill that could be big, too we're going to pay for that as well i guess, when do those things bother you, as someone that probably is not enthralled with higher taxes anywhere, whether it's corporate taxes >> no. >> or, i don't know, a wealth tax, raising more general rates, capital gains and where are we going to do it and why is that not going to be

a negative this year >> listen, if you look at president biden's campaign materials it was all of the above as far as access what ylan was talking about, capital gains, dividends, corporate taxes, the whole thing. one thing that's going to have to happen, you're going to are to raise the debt ceiling. regardless of whether you have a bill on infrastructure which in my opinion is near certainty and raise debt ceiling which suggests you're going to have to have tax increases the amount of stimulus in the system right now is probably enough to overcome that. but as time goes on, i think what is interesting, we've talked about the presidential election cycle in the past the last two years of a biden presidency could be more challenging from an economic perspective than the first two years. usually presidents like to do it the other way around

this is very unusual circumstance, where they take the medicine early and they let the economy rip as they're going into re-election this time, because of the circumstances of the pandemic, it could be quite the opposite where it might be very difficult to get some of the stimulus, the other things, the goodies that you give away to get re-elected might be difficult as you approach 2024. >> we've got to go, we're going to talk a little bit more about this later but how far is georgetown going? >> i don't know, joe >> i'm going to take them -- >> that's a good question. i'm telling you, i'm not a fair weather fan. i mean, i watched most of the games. and i've watched most of the games for 30 years >> that's ewing's house? that is ewing's house. >> it's been a rough year. >> what do you mean! this year -- we've got to talk more -- we had no march madness at all last year >> no.

>>hat's another pent-up demand i think you shou have said i'm very excited you saw georgetown just mowed down everyone in that great conference that's patrick ewing's conference >> i know joe, i'm a little gun shy because i've got scar tissue as a fan we haven't been to the dance in five or six years now. >> you know who's going to weigh in on this, i haven't checked to see if she's there, we're definitely going to hear from becky quick. >> rutgers 30 in 30 yfirst time in 30 years >> indeed, indiana no one expects -- you don't need to beat illinois to be a good team your husband seems to think houston is a pushover. i saw what houston did to cincinnati twice they averaged like 35 points anyway -- there i go with the

anyway -- but say tell loud and say it proud the hoyas are back >> listen, i'm gun-shy, man. colorado is a good matchup for us, i think, in the first round, you know i don't know if we're going to have to beat michigan after that, but, you know -- >> that's my alma mater, and i feel the same way. i want to believe but i'm taking georgetown i'm sorry. i may be wrong but i can't -- you can't go with your heart you really can't >> no. >> you're tang rutgers to the final four, becky? are you going to do that so that you're down here on that tv news -- >> maybe >> really? we'll see. know. >> all right, treanor, thank you. >> i'm definitely taking the win for a while. even the first game is tough. who do you got

clemson? >> no, it's not. we're a strong ten, they're a weak seven i think it's good. >> all right i don't ow i don'know taking clemson anyhow -- anywho -- >> yeah, when we come back, with millions of people getting vaccinations and states reopening, the number of people flying is starting to pick up, phil lebeau will join us with the data and we'll be hearing frospirit airlines ceo ted christie about the state of the airline industry "squawk box" will be right back.

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♪ welcome back, everybody. dr. anthony fauci out with a warning about the potential for another surge of covid cases on "meet the press" he cautioned don't spike the ball on the 5 yard line. wait until youet into the end zone >> if you look at the numbers that have gone down, they've gone down so nicely in a very steep decline. >> yeah. >> but in the last couple of weeks, we've had a plateauing of infectionsnd the thing that concerns me, history proves that i should be concerned is that when you get a plateau at a level around 60,000 ne infections per day, there's

always t risk of another surge. and that's the tng we really want to avoid. because we are going in the right directions that's why i get so anxious, which i hear pulling back completely on public health measures like saying no more masks. no nothing like that i mean, that say risky business when you do that >> dr. fauci blamed the surge in cases in europe on a relaxation of safety measures there germany's chief infectious disease specialist said friday there are clear signs of a third wave happening there and italy is talking about another lockdown that would span the easter holiday, joe, worth mentioning we have not been able to roll out vaccines there as quickly as we have, either >> no we're ading the way there, at least, on vaccines making real progress and fingers crossed. fingers crossed. i hope it's not july 4th i hope we can do something before -- the point is well

taken, especially with the variant strains, obviously we don't want this -- we don't want this rearing its ugly head again. because, right n, the news is -- don't you feel a lite better the supermarket? the store or >> well, i haven't gotten vaccinated yet but i do feel a lot better about the way things are heading. just the numbers coming down and seeing, you ow, seeing some real hope in this. >> all right i have said the good news is i got the vaccine. the bad ne is, i was eligible to get the vaccine which is, you know -- but, hey, i'll take it it'she one silver lining for being there. let's get a check on this morning's "squawk" stack penn national gaming in there. it's being added, obviously to the s&p 500. but, you guys, you know how i

talk about draftkings, i saw a portnoy tweet, you know, barstools. he took houston versus memphis, right? seven points >> uh-huh. >> he put $5000 to make 95 >> wow what did you do, five bucks? >> $3. >> he won, boom, like that but that's something that -- whoa, man, that really scared me we got gamestop on there as well check out nxp semiconductors, generac they're going to join the s&p 500 wi penn gaming andrew, have youtarted the brackets? you do that every year you have even looked at them >> you know what, i may take a pass this year i may take a pass. i end up just doing the math on it i lose every time.

>> you took a pass last year because therwas none >> i'm getting a twoear pass then i'll return to the -- >> i can't wait -- all right