still a little early >> we're going to take a final check on the marks right now before we go on this st. patrick's day. i hope everybody enjoys it a little bit of green for you. dow up about 62 points, but nasdaq looking to open down about 142 points >> i'm with you, andrew. total virtue signaling i'm with you, that esp stuff, total virtue signaling, me and you, man me and you >> you're right. >> we'll talk about it >> joe, back to you. we'll see you tomorrow "squawk on the street" begins right now. >> bye, guys goos good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber happy st. patrick's day. futures are mixed with the fed with a decision at 2:00 eastern time nasdaq struggling a bit as the 10-year yield approach 1s.68 a 14-month high. and oil is down. and the road map begins with

pressure on powell investors looking at the fed tea leaves for insight on the inflation and the fate of monetary soil. >> and yields are rising and pressure and technology stocks, growth stocks overall once again, that 10-year is the 14-month high, as you saw, ahead of what will be a fed decision but we're going to be hearing from powell later today. and e.v. boom. why the ceo of lucid motors doesn't see a potential apple car as a threat for that industry carl jim, this morning, on twitter, you dwiefinitely have taken a note on the english correlation between technology and rates. >> so painful. i was watching frank this morning, at 5:00, and what was incredible is we didn't have this we didn't have the bonds doing anything at that hour. everything looked fine hunky dory who knew, maybe this was the up day, apple was looking up, and then the interest rates, they tick up, and just the linkage is so clear, david often talks

about the algorithms, it really doesn't matter what nasdaq stock we're talking about it, it goes down and when we see, this and david, i know you're celebrating st. patrick's day, which is really great to see, but this linkage is just extraordinary. isn't it i mean how lock-step it is. >> it is right now what breaks it, jim? what takes it off? because it's not as though this is not also pointing to what is going to be very significant growth, which you could argue is going to be a positive for many companies. even with the prospect of some inflation. >> look, i had dow chemical on last night, and look, last year, the stock was 22, he did buy $2 million in the open market, came on the show to talk about it, all of their product, the prices are going up, and now some of it is, we have not talked enough about uri, a storm so concentrated in the areas where plastics are made but carl, if i were in the room asking jay powell, i would say there is not a commodity other than coke that

isn't going up huge, and what are you going to do about it, and then he has do the dance, he has to say ephemeral, he has to say short term, but can he back it up with any facts i don't know. >> i'm lacking about cocoa, because we do have an upgrade of hershey on that very point that cocoa is the one inflation input that is not on this incredible train. interesting, jim, trading nation's got a great hit on our web site today, that wells fargo says don't rule out a 10-year, at 2 1/4, by year end. and that their view is generally that powell is not going to step in front of that to slow it down all that much, at least in their view >> look, 2 1/4 again, when you're watching what's going to be happening this morning with leoir which had a great quarter, 2 1/4 does not make it so you have a prohibitive rate. and some people would say, and there was so the great stuff but

what i would come back and say and what is really important, there is a shortage of housing but no shortage of buyers and if they can ever make enough houses and they do have gross margins going up, which means prices are going up, and lumber is going up, i think we'll be fine. when you go to buy a house, it is still not anything like when we got in the business i mean it's still at 3 1/2 it's a 3 1/2. >> right. >> and you got put a lot of money down so it is not like 2007, 2008. >> that early rigorous due diligence. you have to tell them what you make and give them paycheck stubs and things of that nature, yes. >> i just think that the fed can let those rate goes a little bit higher but what i do worry about are the people, the journalists in the audience, who are going to hound him, they are going to pound him over and over again about the boom, the boom, the boom. >> he's in a tough spot, right because you know, if he's less dovish, that has certain implications he is in a tough spot. >> last year, was ne a tough

spot >> he's always in a tough spot. >> right >> >> it isn't as though he hasn't thought through very carefully exactly his words and what he is goes to use in terms of adjectives and verbs and everything. >> i parsed everything he had to say last year at this time including word for word what he said, amazing interview, with savannah guthrie and the "today" show, this guy, i mean was basically saying, the fed doesn't run out of ammo, this guy is so practiced, i mean he is olivia, king henry ivth, part one and two, he always said the same thing and we've got a record fed, and a broken record fed and if he keeps saying it, they will eventually say, the journalists will say uncle and go on and talk about how cocoa is not going up and that's what they're going to do and he is never off

message. he is always on message. he is olivier. >> a famous actor. >> one of carl's favorite movies i think is marathon man. i think so because he's mentioned it. >> is it safe? >> is it safe? >> yes >> the book's good, too. >> one of the greatest. >> goldman >> yes >> but they're going to try -- >> that's right. >> they're going to try, they're just going to be relentless. you know, mr. chairman, isn't it true, that the price of plastics are up very big, and wood is up very big and oil is up very big. what say you, sir. and he will say, i looked at the situation, and when i think it's necessary i will raise rates >> what does it all mean for growth stocks? for technology names getting beaten up. for spac has it are back to their redeemed price. >> they go down first. because the older people recognize the linkage. >> okay. >> and david, then the younger people come in and say what's the bond market? >> right. >> and they have the fire power, and don't forget they're getting checks

and do they say what the 10-year is david, they don't know what the 10-year is the 10-year, what are they talking about? >> they're working on it >> give them time. >> what does the 10-year have to do with the price of lucid. >> they're working on it you're right >> 10-year, betsy colin? thank you, techno, toro, el toro >> el toro >> el toro >> i mean come on, we know, what do we know about the younger buyers they don't look at the bond market should they? yes, because of this big stream. >> they go back and forth on the apps of their phone between sports betting and playing the market. >> and cathie wood diamond hands. gamestop and you come along with this incredibly large multi-trillion dollar market that has historically linked to stocks and you're old you're a boomer. >> practically you are a boomer >> i'm the ground zero of boomers. >> i know. >> but i'm not kidding these people do not link so they look at this and they say, carl, they say oh, things

are on sale, because i don't know, they're on sale. >> some guy named powell. >> yeah, powell. >> powell. >> jay, jay powell >> who was that? >> boom powell >> who that's how old i am. first baseman, baltimore, i think. >> and they come in and buy, and they buy their faves and cathie wood comes in and buys tesla, she's been buying some crazy stuff, i don't know if you have been watching yesterday, what she's coming in and buying whatever's down. >> i got her list. >> did you get the list? >> i got her list there. >> snapped up some peloton yesterday. >> that's it >> talk about what, amazon, we have breaking news regarding the company this morning let's getting to bergtda oombs >> amazon taking another big step in health care, it will be rolling off the tele health service amazon care in all 50 states this summer for its own employees and begin offering it

to other employers amazon care is a 2-year-old pilot program for workers in washington state, that began as a virtual urgent care service with some in person follow-up, with a nurse, but it is now evolved into a virtual primary care service, where employees can talk to the same doctor and care team and get in person testing, immunization, and checkup, and online services like pregnancy coaching. that's what they'll be offering other employers as well. >> being able to serve lots of amazonians is a great starting point. as we talk to different enterprises, a lot of what they're expressing interest in is this new model, the hybrid model of in person with the virtual care and the flexibility and the adaptability >> initially, the national rollout will just entail the virtual piece, with in person support available, that hybrid model, just in washington state, and amazon's second headquarters in the metro washington

baltimore area but with the explosive growth in tele health during the pandemic, there is heated competition to build out this virtual primary care system in the employer market that is part of the impetus of the teladoc acquisition and the doctor and demands deal this week to merge with grand rounds and united health is launching its own service and cvs health is running a pilot program, amazon will be competing against the incumbents but they're able to offer a bigger mix of services and this is very much a developing market. and carl, amazon says it's aiming to basically change the delivery of health care. with that emphasis on delivery >> fascinating, bertha thank you for that it sets up a really nice conversation for us, jim, because i think it's bear adds amazon to a fresh pick and the general line of thinking by their calculations about 75% of revenue is a recurring revenue

model, they're saying take a fresh look at amazon, as amazon is a service, is what they call it, target 4,000. >> right and i think that amazon comes down because of the future pressure, because of jay powell, but i do think that amazon in that piece did say that the year over year comparisons were actually easier than a lot of others, but bertha's story, this is huge, okay? because the death star visited cvs in 11/2018, when i say visited, they talked about, i'm talking about amazon, moving to health care, and the stock never regained that level, and it crashed all the way to the low 50s. >> talking about cvs right now. >> yes >> i want to make sure people follow. >> that was the death star attacking cvs. >> amazon, when they came at them. >> teladoc do you want to be in that? >> i don't know if you do. guys, it's funny, we didn't focus it at the time when haven, remember the joint venture, we made a lot of it when was

announced, kbberkshire and amazn earlier this year that thing ended and 57 actual employee, based in boston, but then they all went their separate ways and this is obviously amazon following through, perhaps on some things that they learned, there but certainly trying to continue to move towards better outcomes in health care, which was the whole joint ventures purpose for being. it didn't succeed. >> repeat doctors. people trust amazon. the bear piece, 200 million prime members. i would look at this as a way, to look, we use tele doc, a lot of people use it, but a sample, people sample, and amazon is a company that does a lot of things right when they get it right, and you just say you know what, i'm going to start using it for x, i was with someone on, my friend who does bitcoin work, amazon went services, this is, it's connected to bitcoin, because it's the way, you know,

computing power, the greatest computing power, so i say amazon web service, coupled with doctor on demand, teladoc product, it could be a winner, carl. it could be a winner it could transcend the bond market because the younger people, they don't know bonds they think that bond comes out every now and then, it is now daniel craig >> it's been delayed the daniel craig version has been delayed >> i'm taller than daniel craig. >> no, you're not. >> i am. >> you mentioned bitcoin, b of a does smack bitcoin a bit in a new note which we'll talk about after a break. and news on lyft and uber. upgrades of mcdonald's initiation of virgin galactic. a lot more when we continue in a minute

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>> that's lucid motors ceo with jim last night on "mad" and as usual, a lot of e.v. headline, lucid last night, bmw this morning trying to talk about an accelerated shift to e.v >> phil lebeau is so great this morning. bmw the first time, completely, and volkswagen all in, but i would say this, about lucid, i think raulinson said he told us they're almost sold out of everything and since they have the money, they can go to the next iteration, the next iteration and this is one of the better capitalized companies that have come along and obviously he is speaking about the comparison with tesla when he said they only had several hundred million so you know these guys are loaded for bear. >> it does and it is worth mentioning that at $31, church hill capital v, that it's going to have 1.6 billion shares outstanding. >> a lot of shares >> so the implied value of the company is $47 billion

somewhere around there i haven't done the exact month $30. you can do it. 30 times 1.6 billion and you're talking about a company that is projecting 5.2 billion in profits, gross profit in 2026, and 2.8 billion in ebitda by 2026 and that car we looked at it, is $160,000 automobile, they are saying they're going to produce 500,000 total units for all the different models by 2030, i mean jim, you know, it's fas nate, fascinating, it's interesting to watch the growth of the company but it's not without risk. >> no, it isn't. and i would say of the companies that i've seen and talked to that are in the e.v. space, these guys got a plan. i remember greenfield, in arizona, the cars are beautiful, i do think that matters, i think there will be demand for a car that is that price and remember the others are going to come out to their lower price, i took a

test drive in it, and as a matter of fact, i got thrown, i didn't think we would go anything faster than five miles and whatever, we went zero to 80 and boom, i was trying to get the seatbelt on and stuff, but carl, this thing is gorgeous and i think that if you can do it in scale, it's gorgeous and it can get 500 miles on a charge, carl, and i think people are going to say 500 miles on a charge and luxury gorgeous, it's going to do well and so i know the valuation is high, but carl, the car is fabulous. >> high? it's right around ford's which you happen to love. >> ford was almost run into the ground by a guy who was like a steel cabinet guy. >> ford is distinguished because it never filed bankruptcy unlike chrysler. >> it has some problems with the chips and some plastic issues. >> it's got a very high market value, jim >> what?

>> meanwhile, guys, honda by the way, honda's cutting some production in the u.s. and canada this morning, talking about that ongoing chip shortage which we'll get to in more detail later on. overall, jim, as you well know, inventory to sales ratio, in the car market, in general, it's extremely low, there's very little to buy, we talked about some of the problems in production, and rawlinson did talk to you overall about the competitive market for cars right now. take a listen to this. >> there's no such thing as an e.v. market. this is a market for cars. and e.v.s will penetrate and completely fill that market, that world market for cars so i welcome the competition from a company like apple. but ultimately, you know, this is a technology race tesla recognizes that. >> all right so there's a comment on the apple car which still nobody knows anything about. >> no, and rawlinson's a confident fella and a lot of it

is because he has the money, he's got the design, but let's go back to what you said about honda, going back and forth with fill lebeau, the basic building blocks, what went offline with this storm you are seeing tightness everywhere with anything having to do with plastic and you know there's a lot of plastic in cars, and it's a continual theme. it probably will come up in the fabled fed meeting plastics >> david, remember, that was the future of plastics >> yes, it was >> yes, it was. >> another movie worth mentioning. >> and wouldn't it be great if powell said, what exactly do you mean >> a little graduate reference we'll take a break more "squawk on the street" in a moment ♪♪

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welcome back "mad dash," we're actually here, standing up a little bit good to see you fully back in form. >> thank you very much. >> something not in form today, a company you followed closely. >> a think we don't like to see, you probably agree with this, restatements now, i was going back and forth with danny marsh, the ceo of plug power, and i actually, no restatements are good, repeat once again, but complex accounting, but it's noncash, and it does matter, you want to see if cash goes down it is often something that we really don't want to see, i think that they're going to work to resolve it very quickly. kpmg had an issue with the last minute with what was happening, and the stock's been, it peaked clearly, but i do long term believe in it, i am not ready, i

know that accounting irregularities equal sell, i'm still digging on this, i want to know who blew the whistle, was it a new order, was it someone at the company that does matter >> what was it related to? >> yes, it had to do with highly complex, involving significant judgments on how to apply gaap given our leadership new and rapidly developing industry and i am quoting because i don't want to screw this up but basically saying there are no material issues there are ways to be able to, and i think cowen had the best note, but there are ways to be able to assess how much of what they should be talking about, how much they -- giving the last of it, it has to do with their true fuel cells and i didn't want to see it, obviously, and it is very, very negative when you see this, but it is also, it's not, no one lied to my expectation, i don't think they did, but it's going to take a little while, downgraded on this, each though guidance unchanged and what i care about is guidance unchanged

but of course, it's tied to the accounting treatment. >> that doesn't help me a lot. >> it helps other people. >> i studied it, and gave it to my friend the accountant and he said look, it's not that bad and at the same time it is very hard to understand. >> and some people will say i will ask questions later >> yes, that's not a green tide, david. >> it's emerald. >> it's emerald. >> way to go, david. >> absolutely. i can't speak for what color these are. we really got to go. we have an opening bell coming up

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keep your eye on the ride sharing stocks this morning, uber will grant its drivers in the u.k. employment status that would entitle them to vacation and pension contributions, after a court ruling over there. meanwhile, jim, back here in the states, wedbush takes lyft from 72 to 85, and we'll keep our eye on how the reopening affects their dynamics >> i struggle with these these are the kinds of stocks that would have normally gone

down, but the lyft piece is okay, i think these stocks are integral to the notion of the gig economy, and when i see, when i see any benefits given to any gig-ers, what i can say is that the gig people are, that's a bad model, you want to get riddle them and you want autonomous cars but that is not something that you want to buy with uber. >> they do well because they don't pay this stuff. >> right, the drivers are expensive. >> the opening bell of the s&p 500 and big board, restaurant ordering provider olo, brating the ipo, and we will talk to the ceo in the next hour and nasdaq sun country airlines going public, and the ceo will be joining us, ncy at the nasdaq, price is at $24, range was 21 to 23 we know there is a tail wind behind airlines. >> i know. but this is the day, don't stick

your neck out, andrew, the piece today, about the, how the airlines cleaned up, they had to pay the employees and people felt that airlines were the incubators at that point for covid and it is amazing how the group has come back, but we don't need another airline stock right now, we don't need another company that is involved in the food business, we have too many stocks, david, there's just too many stocks. >> first of all, it's a small offering but i mean they're a charter, cargo, commercial, listen, the offering itself 15 times over. >> and we always get that. >> 80%, the top 25 holders so we'll see. what will be the top 25. we'll see. it may actually pop because it was, i think it was fairly well priced and we'll talk to the ceo later about the actual business model, jim. but to your point, we do have a lot of companies, we have a lot of spacs coming public, which will result in an enormous

amount of companies coming public. >> right yesterday, you had osprey 2, you had brand velocity, all spacs, vector 3, and vector 4, they got three and four in there at the same time, you had decarbonization, five, first mark 3, transformational, you had leo 5, i don't know if that's a king or if that's number 5, i missed leo one through four and hig 2, and you had dv 3-2 and servers telecom 2. carl, i'll end there but you get my point. >> that was over how many weeks? >> that was yesterday. that was yesterday 15 15 spacs filed to go public yesterday. i'm sorry, maybe it was, what day is today 17 two days ago >> where's the supposed -- the supply >> supply? >> a lot of supply >> we can't hand al lot of supply when the fed will be grilled about inflation. >> maybe the people want to get

the deals done before everyone realizes wow, how much stock has hit the market carl, i don't like it. i don't like it when we have so many deals and it is not just a lightning round and jim, vector 3. and i'm still learning vector 2. and church hill. >> how do you get to vector 4, also $350 million raises. by the way, when this comes to spacs, remember it's ten bucks, you potentially don't have the down side, jim, so that's just the issuing offering of the spac and a lot of people line up for it, although these days my understanding is when you're putting in for, you know, you usually put in for a lot more than you think you will get hit, but a lot of people are getting everything they're asking for, which is not a good sign. >> carl, there's got to be a day where they can't do a spac, where we're spac'd up. when are we going to be spac'd up >> i mean we've already matched all of last year, in terms of volume, in three months. so that, i don't know, we'll see. i mean kostin has said outloud,

not sustainable but he has not said when it will stop being sustainable. >> he is so prolific he has a piece out today. >> i said that this morning. how do they churn out so much stuff? 100-page report on all of the new screens today, which i guess we can get into a little bit later, jim, i did want to get you on some restaurant news today, we had the upgrade of starbucks yesterday at btig, a higher target today, on telse, and bear says look for trends to start improving in the next couple of weeks and deutsch ups mcdonald's to buy, 244, they say look, the implied 11% upside may not seem that dramatic for an upgrade, but in an era where casual dines is a quote bastian of safety, they think that's pretty good. >> we are now seeing people saying there's 150,000s that have gone under, impossible to understand the new rules, and i

have to have an accountant speak to the banker about the new rules for the restaurants, and last man standing for cheese cake, and mcdonald's, the last bastion, whether it is be texas road hours, or darden, it doesn't matter, how many small coffee shops went out of business, and the answer is, david, i'm sure two down the block from you went out of business and are shuttered and who comes in and scoops those places up? starbucks. >> although i already have a starbucks on my block. so i don't know. >> okay, well, look, it's been - >> the shop across the shop has closed years ago maybe because of that very fact. >> but the sign -- >> that's up a ways. i think that's still there >> but there are, carl, there are a lot of - >> rhetorical. >> there are a lot of small coffee shops that i've been charting, including i'm very close, anything within ten blocks of where our restaurants are and i can't believe that those, those places were really

undercapitalized so yes, the last man standing is doing well here, carl starbucks turned out to be essential. >> yeah and as we continue to watch return to work policy, jim, it's ford, and a good story on cnbc.com about a new flexible work schedule that's going to allow, how many workers here, 30,000 employees, remain home post-pandemic, and we're seeing a lot of policies unveiled, the last couple of week, to varying degrees, about how much they want those workers back in the office, but that has big implications for how many cups of coffee you're going to get at a starbucks for example. >> look, i mean when you think about salesforce, the largest tower in san francisco, being empty, that's a lot of starbucks that doesn't get, that doesn't get delivered, right, david? >> yes, it is. it is. listen, i mean the providers of services to office workers in major metropolitan areas, it's been devastating. >> this is the new york issue. >> it's new york it's a number of other places as

well but yes, of course new york, given its office market is by far larger than any other, times ten, yes >> yeah but i mean, i went to 55th and madison yesterday it always is very scary, when the light changes, and you're the only person who crosses the street, and i was going to get a new pair of shoes to try to deal with what my doctor says, to be right, to a place called walking shoe, fantastic. closed closed >> there's no foot traffic why would you have a shoe store open >> right >> they did open that block though >> 55th and madison? >> 55th, 56th? >> what happened. >> trump they opened it up. >> i knew that >> i know you did. rhetorical also. i just keep answers your questions like you're asking them for real. guys, i wanted to get to other news this morning, and not much that corporate news. >> just turn us off -- you want to put on espn, they will keep watching you asking me

rhetorical questions and me answering them le live for that. >> i have a lot of things to talk about. >> i will talk about something you talked about plastics earlier. if you're having a kid sitting in the pool and tell them what to say, and they're out of college, wouldn't you, you would say photonics, son, photonics. and that's what's going on here, we have another bid, or i should say yet another higher deal to acquire, as jim just told you, coherent, momentum once again coming back, to compete with 2.6, remember they have been in there nks, a three-way bidding war for a while and now we're at 275, or roughly you can take a look at where we, are 220 in cash and .61 shares, this thing started out with a lot more stock than cash, it was 100, i think in cash, originally, it was worth somewhere in the low 200s, at least based on that first day where the momentum stock price opened up. do you have to wonder sometimes

slack. because sometimes it does take actually signing a deal to get everybody's attention. we saw it with core logic, too but in this one, wow, it keeps going on they have taken in a billion now at lumentum, silver lake, that is a preferred, a converging price of 92.42 a bit from here. but they've taken in a billion and then bane actually contributed as much as $2 billion to 2.6, to help finance its deal, and/or perhaps its next offering, if they keep going here so this has been an interesting one to watch, with coherent stock price continuing to move up although it is a significant spread it's going toen an anti-trust review no matter what but photonics. >> which one is occidental and which one is chevron >> i don't know. taking on too much debt? >> yes. >> i would say lumentum's

current market cap is roughly equal what they want to pay for coherent 2.6 is a little above it neither are big companies. and remember dell and hp going back and forth with threepar that was a great one and here, we will see what 2.6 does but again, you sometimes wonder, did the board not do enough early on? did they not get everybody's attention until they actually signed a deal? who knows. guys, moving on, in research land, jim, i don't know if you saw wells fargo on comcast this morning, sort of an interesting report >> yes. >> you talked about kostin getting pate by the word, maybe, and this guy writing a lot but these kinds of reports are always interesting reading, and our parent company, only stock that we can actually own, but not particularly positive, saying, you know, simply saying, listen, they think comcast is at odds with what it wants to be. the cable business is excellent.

but it's underlevered. they could be levering it a lot more of course it was a pure play like charter trades more like a media company post the acquisition of sky. and it trades less like cable. and what is the plan they suggest? i bet you know, right, jim get rid of nbc-u, figure it out. >> i think it's -- >> go ahead. >> yeah. >> the line that stood out to me, david, was that third option, merging with potential partner, they say press reports suggest that there are dance partners >> yes. >> i think of you first when i read that. >> it's not happening now. but i know enough to have covered these things for so long, that you get reverberating around, it could be years, but eventually, these things do tend to occur and it is so funny to see the cycles of course, of people urging integration, urging vertical integration, in some fashion, and then saying no, you need to be pure plays.

but yes, the idea of combining this business, that is nbc-u, with that of warner media, is one that is certainly going to continue to circulate, there are plenty of bankers who want to talk about it and i imagine there are also some people i think who would believe that it really would create a good deal of value, but right now, you've got neither side, at least at this point, certainly the time-warner side, interested in even considering it at this point. but we'll watch it there will come a day one morning when we will be here talking about the potential of that actual transaction occurring. >> viacom. >> what about it >> you want to own the network >> yeah. >> well, comcast owns nbc. >> yes. >> viacom has been a big win. >> it has been a huge win. >> i think that matters. >> never seen anything like that move in viacom of late it is down today, though, carl rare down day for viacom now only up 150% for this year >> yes, there's a few things dragging today, apple of course, the worst performing dow

component, aztec is struggling let's get to bob pisani this morning. good morning, bob. >> good morning, carl. back to the reflation trade. and that happens when you see yields move up and at 7:00 a.m., yields started moving up, three basis points, in an hour, from 7:00 to 8:00 a.m. eastern time, we lost 15 points in the s&p futures, absolute clear inverse relationship and we haven't really recovered, so let's take a look at the sectors, this is the reflation trade, and the good news is, gee, you don't like tech, due like growth because rates move up, we'll go back and play reflation, there's reflation, banks, energy, industrials, there's the reflation, and meanwhile the growth trade, which is semiconductors, and china, china is a proxy for growth, too, down today. this is perfect. they're doing exactly what they usually do every time rates start moving up. so the good news is, the broader market, the s&p is holding up fine because of the constant rotation going on. the bad news is, we're getting some, let's just call them some head winds at this point here, if you look at the thematic etfs, this is the way the market

tends to buy things these day, clean tech, for example, cathie wood's ark fund, next generation internet fund week today, and cloud computing, 3d printing, all of these have problems, any time rates start moving up, and a little better in the last week and a half, but generally down in the last month or so. and if you look at sectors this month, rotation is really head snapping it moves really, really fast generally we went into the month, the reflation doing well, retail, banks, energy, doing well industrials doing well tech has been lagging and last week, there are days tech has been underpurchasing and head snapping rotation happening all the time, to try too figure out what is going on with the rate structure here and if you look at the cross-currents right now, there are more tail winds than head winds, i think, and that's why the broad market is holding up so well, the 10-year is moving to 2% the market believes that is

happening. the question is, can it hold up and stabilize with the rotation play taxes are being talked about a lot. a lot of models, with a '22 hit to earnings or not it's too early to tell overall consumer spending though, stimulus will be really, really big for consumer spending throughout the year. and earnings keep going up i pay attention to this every single day i look at how the numbers are going and let's take a look at this, because this is the real determinant of stock price, they have been continuing to rise through the first quarter, 2021, on january 1st, we were expecting the first quarter to be up 16% and now, we're up here 22%. 22%. the second quarter there, we are of course, we're up 45%, on january 1st, and now it's up 52%, so the bottom line, carl, is earnings numbers keep going up, and this has been a phenomenon, the last several quarters, rising earnings estimates, not falling earnings estimates, that's keeping the market up. carl, back to you. >> bob, we'll see you in a

little while bob pisani thank you. plenty of time to talk about rates all the way into the 2:00 p.m. hour. let's get to rick santelli >> we should be talking about rates. hopefully the fed panel gives us their ultimate decision through the chairman today we'll pay more attention to the market's view, even knowing that quantitative easing, they could just tap that accelerator, pretty much any time they want to it's pretty brave of the market to challenge that notion now, housing today, the february numbers were not good, okay? each down over 10% starts and permits but permits have been really pretty solid, even now that they lost a bit, which really paints a better picture, maybe for building and easing some of this supply issue, it's very tight supply what i want to bring up something that came up yesterday, and the national association of home builders index was down for the fourth straight month but it brings the point home it started in 1985 and even with the downdraft, 82, it is still 4

points above 78, which was the all-time high, prior to covid. so there are bright spots. residual bright spots in housing. now, with fed day, let's look at a one day of 10s, you can see there is no give-back. we could argue about the pace of ascension of rates but the fact is, there is no give-back, and that's making many investors much more bull, and if you open the chart up to the second week in january, last fed day marked the bottom of the low closes, at 101, that was february 26, 27, and if you look at boons on the same notion, you'll see even though they started up in january, they flattened out a bit. the difference between the two is widening. and finally a month to date of the dollar index which had a stellar month, and the reason why? you see 10s on top of it yes, this is like old time trades would see the dollar and rating moving in the same direction, that's the way it's supposed to be carl, jim, david, back to you. >> all right, rick, thank you very much. rick santelli. so as we await the fed

decision this afternoon, 1% declines on the nasdaq, aztec is trying to find some legs here, dow not fairing to badly as it is getting led by dow itself boeing jpmorgan back in a moment wealth is breaking ground on your biggest project yet. worth is giving the people who build it a solid foundation. wealth is shutting down the office for mike's retirement party. worth is giving the employee who spent half his life with you, the party of a lifetime. wealth is watching your business grow. worth is watching your employees grow with it. principal. for all it's worth.

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welcome back we, of course, have talked a lot over the last couple years about esg. the rising importance in terms of the lens through which many investment managers look at an opportunity. guys, we talked, andrew sorkin was talking about it earlier, the editorial in usa today by the former head of sustainable investing at black rock saying sustainable investing boils down to little more than marketing hype and disingenuous promises we've talked about exxon mobile

and the promises it's making to the investment community in part i did have an opportunity to speak toers la burns, a board member there and also of uber, former chairman and ceo of zero -- xerox. diversity, inclusion, being a key topic, but we had an opportunity to talk about whether exxon mobile is taking this seriously, particularly in light of what you saw from the editorial. here's what was said >> in my time at exxon mobile, it's probably the most interesting board i'm on and most controversial exxon mobile has to be a par tis pay or the there's no way we can get there without exxon mobile and world dutch shell and chevron and all these energy companies participating. i'm very happy with the changes we're making this is definitely not window dressing not at all

this is exxon mobile doesn't take a lot of things lightly if they say it, they're going to try to do it >> you see more of that on our series interesting to listen to ursula burns. we've talked about ursula and done reporting. >> they need to be more creating they need to say we're going to take the -- mine for bitcoin i'm not kidding. by the way, tomorrow an interview, they have an auditor who comes in and audits them and audits the esg that's what you need you have to have an outsider determine whether what you say is for real. that's the only way i'll accept it >> that's interesting. oil is, in fact, below 65 on some of the european reopening worries. we'll be back in a moment.

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bitcoin takes a shot today out of b of a. bitcoin's dirty little secrets they say there's no good reason to own btc unless you see prices going up it's not tied to inflation, remains volatile, making it impractical as a store of wealth

or payments mechanism. as such, the main argument for holding bitcoin here is sheer price appreciation that's getting notice today. we're back in mitea nu

what's up on mad tonight >> one of my favorite, shopify we talk about smaller retailer the stock is 100 to 1,000. i think harley is an amazing business person. empowering people doing great things i can't wait >> wow what a story and what a week you're having on mad, jim >> and happy st. patrick's >> absolutely. we'll see you at 6:00 p.m. eastern. good wednesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." it looks like the nasdaq is going to duke it out with interest rates as we see some pronounced weakness in tech nothing ahead of the fed meeting. the decision 2:00 p.m. eastern time the presser at 2:30. that's where the road map begins as investors await rising yields, applying more pressure to tech stocks we're watching two big ipos this morning the ceos of sun country airlines and olo join us on the

respective market debuts and the global chip shortage hampering the auto industry. carl >> all right, guys let's start the hour with our own steve liesman to talk about what we might hear after lunch this afternoon hey, steve >> hey, carl yeah, jay powell facing one of the most difficult challenges yet, defending a fed policy that's the most aggressive in history. amid a dramatically improved economic outlook what's changed since the fed last month there's the thing about call it the 1.9 trillion in relief prompted a surge in growth forecast you have vaccinations accelerating stating are beginning to reopen. bond yields have soared and inflation concerns among the leading market worries out there right now. meanwhile the fed's zero rate and large qe purchases have not changed. powell and other fed officials say it stays in place until the economy rejoins most of the 10 million jobs in the pandemic and

inflation runs for some time above the 2% goal. the fed's forecast will likely embrace some of the economic e bul yans out there gdp around 4% for this year. the cnbc fed survey up near 6% will fed officials change their policy forecast? no rate hikes are expected this year and officials look for no hikes in 22. our survey forecast, two full hikes almost with a 0.45 funds rate no fed has ever run so aggressive a policy as this one. no fed has had to keep in place an expected rebound or keep the markets at bay or engineer an exit from the policy the question is whether powell and the fed can keep yields low for now and avoid a taper tantrum when he does move to tighten. >> don't go anywhere we want to bring in mike and talk about how the world of

rates intersects with the world of equities. >> good morning. >> looking at a b of a note right now. literally making fun of what they're calling just a generation of worriers they say we worried about the opposite end a year ago. now the worry is inflation they say worriers are going to worry. and in the end, though, they say we're still in a bull market for equities. >> that's right. bull market for equities negative real yield even with nominal yields going up. it's hard to get into too much trouble when the markets are calm and really quite firm and accommodating. the market also just has to go through the stages of making its peace at each new level of interest rates or at least certain types of stocks have to do that. i don't know if people are overanticipating some inflationary burst that is unlikely to happen or they are legitimately anticipating an upward trend in inflation the fed is not going to attempt to get in the way of and has told us it did not get in front of

it i think the push/pull is evident in the market. 2013 the taper tantrum, you had big tech stocks not really take the lead or not really do what they did in retrospect, we know they led until yields calmed down it's not as if they went down tick for tick every time it went down it's worth noting yields are at a new high and the big tech stocks are above their lows. there is kind of this -- we have to get used to these new levels as we ramp up yields if, in fact, that's how it's going to continue >> good context, mike. steve, to go back to the point you're making. this is a longer term debate we have, but we have these exploding federal deficits right now. all of this debt issuance that's going to have to happen within the treasury market to support the spending we're doing i have to think at some point when you see strong economic growth and an economy that is at some point going to be firing on all cylinders and hitting the fed mandates, when it comes time

to tighten, the fed is going to be in a quandary here. >> yeah. and because the market knows that the fed is going to be in a quandary in the future, the fed is in a quandary right now and that's really the issue. all those things have changed we talked about and fed policy hasn't you know, i think mike has a really good point. i mean, this was bound to happen this is what the fed expected to happen, but sometimes things are a little bit even though you expect them, they tend to be uncomfortable when they actually happen i think that each area of the asset prices needs to reprice relative to yields as they rise, but it doesn't mean that overall stocks are terrible because the rates are going up i think they're for sure on their way up but really, it comes with better growth and the other thing we don't talk a lot about is better earnings so there is the kind of something to take the edge off

of it. >> steve, this is not a quiz you know the answers and i don't. the fed's balance sheet, what was our low since the financial crisis and where are we right now? >> oh, god, i think we brought it down -- i want to say south of $4 trillion maybe and now we're north of 7, but i can get that for you in a second by inputting the code srfb into my thing ther. i'm going to say south of 4 and now we're north of 3 >> north of -- >> i haven't kept track at all i mean, right, to your point, we're in -- >> sorry south of 2 and 7 1/2 now >> we were below 2 and now we're up another 5 plus trillion from our lows since the crisis? >> yeah. we were -- yeah, right, exactly. correct. >> that's a lot of money >> but where's the inflation, david? you would think that given all

that, you would have this huge amount of inflation out there. we still don't have it i mean, we're stillrunning below like, what did we get, one eight or 1 .6 on the cpi and the pce, the fed's preferred indicator at 1 .3 it's not there >> steve, isn't the expectation that we're going to start to see that show up in the data moving forward now? >> right so there's a big question whether or not it's going to happen and whether or not it's going to show up in the data more importantly whether or not it's permanent you can imagine a bunch of things as we ramp up airline fares crank up but is boeing or delta going to let those planes sit there in the desert or when we have rising prices, rising capacities, are you bringing the planes in and bringing supply and demand back into account that's the idea of the fed anyway is that prices come back

and align after an initial spurt of inflation >> and mike, i had to pay attention to this goldman note last night looking at the rising costs related to shipping delays they say unlikely to abate in the near term. will put upward pressure on consumer prices but they think by early next year the bottle necks will resolve prices will moderate and they'll turn the boost to core inflation into an outright drag. when powell talks about things being transitory, that's one example. >> right there's just the statistical base effect from the crash in prices last year that's going to lift the cosmetic cpi for a while and also yes the bottle necks. just a little bit of the friction in the system should go away you know, i think it's all -- it all kind of goes into the mix in exactly the direction the market has been positioning itself. the real question is everybody too on board with this value trade? they think that's the escape patch for a high nominal growth economy? i would say yes and maybe.

maybe people are a little overexcited about that, but if you talk about inflation, stocks historically have been beneficiaries. they are price takers, these companies and it flows through to revenues and earnings that's why the market is doing what it's doing. i think all that can be correct in the context of short-term having these little kind of mini shakeouts and panics along the way. >> right it's going to be a fun day ahead, guys. we'll talk to you in a bit mike and steve many americans seeing $1400 stimulus checks in their accounts this morning. small businesses awaiting relief as well. a community tech company administering grants in california everett sands, is the ceo. thank you for being with us this morning. >> thank you for the opportunity to be here >> i want to talk about state programs like the one in california, but first, just what we're seeing from the federal level, the extension around ppp

loans and the offerings there. i mean, given the fact that we're almost a year into that program, and the extensions on that program, how would you compare it now versus last year? are we operating smoothly? are small businesses applying able to get what they need >> yeah. i think the biden administration overall has done a pretty good job. let's face it, small businesses came into this pandemic in a precarious position financially. like running a sports team the administration is constantly making tweaks to the program we're at our third iteration of the tweaks and i think as we're looking at it today and you look at the tweaks they made two weeks ago, some of those smaller small businesses have access to capital. the extension that congress has made a decision to make in terms of ppp, i think that is fortuitous in terms of the small businesses that need the money i also think it's not a silver bullet and so not only is ppp important, but there are other programs that have been put into the stimulus, for example, the state small business credit initiative which has 600% more

funds than it did last time. these programs were rolled out they're going to help accredit enhancements for the small businesses there's a part of the bill that requires technical assistance and education to the small businesses and i also think there's some other programs out there like the restaurant program, the restaurant grant program, and as well as you mentioned there's money out there that are going to states roughly $350 million >> do businesses know and particularly small businesses know all the opportunities to tap into funding and aid that are out there? i mean, how easy is it for them to navigate, especially i think, given your position, as this hybrid business model, i would imagine there's quite a balance to be struck between the hand holding and the personal interaction versus the tech and automation and the role that plays? >> well, so first, you know, we focus on tech and traditional lending to help underserved

small businesses in an applicable way we'll deploy $3 billion this year and hopefully more. i think if you're running one of the programs right now, you have to think about it. does the administrator know the applicant pool have they been able to deploy capital into rural areas as well as urban areas and what's been their performance? and you're right we've got to figure out ways to get the small businesses to know the money that's out there in a different program. we generally build a pretty big eco system mission-based lenders, business service, community service organizations. in california our first 15 days we took in 344,000 applications. that's all about knowing that community, knowing how to reach them, knowing how to touch them. we were building rapport with the community before the pandemic now we've accelerated that >> 344,000 applications. how many of those applying are actually going to be able to see the money and i guess even more

importantly, are the ones that are most in need going to be able to get the money, especially i just -- i think from a lending standard and credit standpoint? >> well, you know, if you're running one of these programs, there's no excuse to have a blunt program at this point. we're about 12 months in we know what to do and i have three suggestions for the county administrators and the governors that are out there. first, no more first come first serve. just take it out of the equation we have to deploy the capital swiftly and scaleably and we've got to get it into the right hands. and last what i would say is you can use score cards and algorithms to make sure it's distributed equitably. we run 12 programs now and the answer to your questions are we can help those underserved communities in a scaleable way and i mean everybody it's the whole community it takes a village to get this done >> all right everett sands, thank you for joining us and giving us your insights this morning. >> thanks for the opportunity to be here.

still to come this morning, we're watching to ipos one is sun country airlines making the debut at the nasdaq we're back in two minutes. don't go anywhere. - [narrator] grubhub perks give you deals on all the food that makes you boogie.

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is the ceo of sun country airlines shows haven't opened yet but we're waiting for that let's talk about this year as our viewers might imagine, last year was a challenging one for our airline 234igs to everyone else you made money in 2019 can you also make money in 2021? >> absolutely. yeah i mean, we outperformed the industry through the covid crisis keep in mind we have three segments that help we have a cargo business that did quite well through the crisis we're hiring today and these funds will help us continue to grow we're feeling really good about where we are >> you talk about the fact that you have this three-way business model. charter, cargo and commercial. where are you sort of flexing the most right now >> well, the growth story in the second quarter for us is going to be recovery in our leisure business we're seeing that in our bookings today really for the first time since

the covid crisis came, we've been able to get sales back to what they were at precovid levels we're feeling really good about a recovery >> prior to covid you also boasted what you said at least were higher operating income margins than other mainline passenger airlines will that continue to be the case are there added costs from covid that won't go away . >> no. actually, we were able to delever through covid and part of the proceeds from the offering are repaying the cares act loan we're coming out of this crisis with a better balance sheet. and we're also able to do some fleet deals during the crisis that were really helpful so our cost structure is better. our balance sheet is better. we're well-positioned to take advantage of the recovery. >> jude j when you talk about the recovery in leisure travel, where are people going >> we're a minnesota-based carrier. this time of year, minnesotans like to go to the sun belt florida is popular right now

one of the things that's lagging behind is mexico and the caribbean due to travel restrictions on reentry, but florida is really popular. the desert destinations in arizona and las vegas. that's where we're selling right now. >> we keep hearing about florida. i'm curious about the cargo piece of the puzzle for you. we've been hearing about and talking about these elevated shipping rates right now and the fact that capacity is constrained. what has that meant in terms of the opportunity for you to move some of those goods around the country, around the world over the past year, and how much will that continue to be part of the equation this year >> so about 25% of our flying hours are done an cargo airplanes. we have 12 dedicated cargo aircraft in our fleet today. we don't have any immediate plans to grow that and the real value of that business is the stability it gives us because leisure customers want

to go at the same time to the same place and so we have to be able to fly a lot when the flying is good and not much when it's bad, and so having this stable businessline in cargo is really what helps us to be a better company as a whole. you know there's been a lot of consternation the last few months about the majors. in that they spent a lot of their cash flow on buybacks prior to the pandemic. the pandemic came along and they got government aide. wonder if you think executives think of the balance sheet differently now. if they think of rainy day funds differently now? >> i hope so i mean, you know, we're certainly in growth mode here. so when we think about the balance sheet, we're going to be conservative, because it's really about not having a lot of fixed obligation so we can be really flexible. and so you know, we run the business conservatively. but yeah, i think there's going to be a change in the attitude

of c suites across the country as they think about risk >> apollo controls this company. i think it's going to be 70 plus% of the vote. have they given any expectations in terms of their plans to sell down over time obviously private equity fund. that's what they're in business to do. >> i feel really good about the investment obviously and they didn't sell any at the ipo, because it's all primary shares ipo they remain bullish. i think they're going to be opportunistic about how they get out of it and when >> yeah. well, we'll be watching, jude. we'll wait for the open as well. congrats on the listing. thanks, guys really appreciate it it's now time for the etf spotlight. we're looking at the i-shares global, ticker icln. up close to 150% falling sharply this year. it's down 4.5% this morning.

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we've been talking all morning about the impact of higher rates on technology look at some of the naz back 100 laggards this morning. you see high pe names in the list, especially if you go down. apple on the top 20. the fed decision a couple hours away we're back in a minute all day long. keep n so when something happens that could affect your portfolio, you can act quickly. that's decision tech, only from fidelity. all the things, all around you

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welcome back here is your cnbc covid update at this hour an interview with good morning america, president joe biden warned americans that we may not meet his goal of relaxed

covid-19 restrictions if people do not continue to take precautions. >> first of all, i won't even be able to meet the july 4th deadline unless people listen, wear masks, wash their hands and socially distance. because not everyone by july 4th will have been vaccinated. >> european union leaders have presented a plan that would allow the 450 million citizens and residents to travel freely across the 27 nation region by the summer the plan will require travelers to either show proof of vaccination, a recent negative test or that they have recovered from covid-19. and residents of a small town in siberia have received their first shot of russia's coronavirus vaccine. it was on a special medical train making it way around remote regions of the country which are difficult to reach by road the train will make a return trip in three weeks to provide people with their second vaccination. you are now up to date david, back to you >> closeup there

thank you. thank you. let's get over to the cme now. and rick santelli as the santelli exchange for us >> good morning. thank you. you know, today we're going to talk about the fed being fed day under the context of back to the taper. let's go back to that 2013 moment, shall we let's go to the white board. okay in the spring of 2013 when we had the taper tantrum, the absolute bottom low close was 1.63 does that sound familiar that's currently the low yield close. and we haven't quite got the full taper yet that's why i wanted to bring this up. it's always amazing to me how human behavior and some of the levels are repetitious not only that. the big question mark, where did the consolidation first occur after the taper yield low rates started to go up right around the 220 s so my feeling would be that if

you want to know the next area to pay close attention to and treasury yields, everybody is going to be looking at 2%. i couldn't agree more. it's big it's psychological and a nice round number and probably we get there and we pull back a bit. but think about how much damage gets done when you go up to a little bit more of the 220 and really get many traders off sides. i like to take the long views. now, let's continue with this topic of back to the taper and as i'm talking, consider this look at a chart going back to the first week in january, the fed meeting was the 26 th. and we see what happens with rates. they basically lift off. they don't go back after the 101 close. but there's something else that's going on. who is the treasury secretary right now? well, treasury secretary is janet yellen who succeeded janet yellen as head of the fed? chairman powell. okay now, let's talk about fed

independence here. is it at risk? many traders i talk to that are nervous to sell into the 120 billion residual quantitative easing, 80 billion on treasuries 40 billion on mortgages because the fed could easily touch that pedal again. think about it this way. chairman powell in his last couple meetings before we got to the vote, the $1.9 trillion in stimulus, i think said something along the lines of he never would explicitly back various legislative policies or various bills. but he really did all along justing a the government on to do more. he believes that's what we need. post covid is more stimulus. but in the end, the treasury is not going to do all this and the fed isn't going to do all this just to put up the white flag. wall street journal did a great piece earlier in the week about how the korean war brought

similar dynamics between the treasury and the fed but they had to break that relationship in order to get confidence back of fed independence so maybe at this point in time, the treasury and the fed together are really promoting spend, spend, spend today. but the rest of the market is starting to be a big concerned of the consequences tomorrow or ahead. morgan back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. meantime, fin tech companies are battling as a gateway for more dmeposits. >> fin techs are positioning their apps as a way to access government checks faster and betting this is going to pay off in the long run. robinhood chime, square and others are pushing their options for direct deposits. chime is giving folks checks up to a week in advance other startup current and jack

dorsey's square are giving people access to checks right before they've been cleared. square also set up a stimulus calculator that helps people predict how much they might be in line for. robinhood offers cashback incentives based on how much people are going to deposit. they say those were available before stimulus rolled out analysts tell me these direct deposit relationships are really the ones that fin techs care about. if they can get people using their apps for this one-time check, they'll likely come back to deposit their paychecks down the road square and paypal provided a play book for this last year the usage of cash app last year picked up around stimulus deposits paypal also said checks drove engagement in venmo. the tech companies are also seeing this as a moment to take market share away from the banks. wells fargo and jpmorgan are not

offering earlyaccess or perks and people on social media have taken notice with some clients saying the banks are, quote, holding their stimulus money hostage while it's possible to save on these apps, robinhood and square both offer trading according to estimates from mizuho as much as 10% of stimulus could go into stocks or bitcoin. >> that's where i was going with my question for you, date. yes, i get it could make it a stickier situation in terms of future deposits but some of the stimulus money is going to go into other services the platforms like robinhood offer as well. >> we've seen that right. they've got direct deposit as a way to give people access to put their money right into stocks. it's similar to what someone like charles shaub might do. the expectation is at least a portion of this will go into

some sort of stock trading whether it's bitcoin or equities especially when interest rates are so low kate, i guess to what degree are you on the lookout for changes in marketing to either existing consumers or new consumers as these companies have full knowledge that these would be clients now have a little more money in their pockets? >> it is a huge customer acquisition channel. these are sometimes the customers that they would be going after. chime, for example, has made its entire business model based around going after sort of the average american who might be getting this stimulus check. they have done a huge rollout. we've seen this play book before in terms of this being a profitable customer acquisition channel in terms of giving people access to stimulus when they really need it. building that sort of trust and relationship with the customer and then betting long-term this will pay off >> right it's going to be interesting to

watch as the checks start to roll out as the president says 100 million checks in the next ten days kate, thank you so much. watching the incredible evolution of fintech a food ordering service, olo is going public. >> disney's ceo on a pretty big day for media names as we so many of them struggling in the state. we're back in a moment if you're 55 and up, t-mobile has plans built just for you. get 2 unlimited lines for only $70. and now get netflix on us with your plan. and this rate is fixed, you'll pay exactly $70 total. this month and every month.

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wells fargo says rates are going higher than 2% sooner than you think. find out why on trading nation more "squawk on the street" coming up.

more fallout this morning from the global chip shortage that is hammering the auto industry phil has more on it. >> carl, with this -- it's not surprising we've heard from a number of auto makers that as they

continue to struggle with a steady supply of semi conductor chips, they are not going to be able to make -- keep the manufacturing levels where they were, and now what we're seeing in honda is an announcement that starting next week, it will be suspending some production at some of its plants here in north america. that will happen next week for how long the company is not saying how many vehicles will be pulled out of the regular production schedule, that's unclear at this point as well. in a statement the company said we continue to manage a number of supply chain issues related to the impact from covid-19, read into that absenteeism congestion at various ports and the microchip shortage and severe winter weather. the last part, that has to do with the production of plastics that are so crucial for so many components that are built into vehicles these days. the impact on honda, not a huge one today. don't be surprised if we hear this from other auto makers as

well especially when you look at what's happened with plastics production, especially down in the gulf of mexico, along the gulf of mexico, because the cold weather snap really did have an impact on the production of so many plastic and plastic-related materials. phil, i'm curious to know what the dealer network is telling consumers at this point. inventories are low. prices are going up. some models don't have certain features and now this. i mean, it's hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel right now. >> it's the reason why the used market has been so hot right now. you know, i know a few people in the market for a mini van. have you looked around for a mini van if you're not in the market for it, and i know usually it's a segment with young kids. a few people i know in the market said the prices are ridiculous the new mini van prices are ridiculous and that's core to honda when you look at the honda odyssey. the dealers are in a tough spot. they've got people who want to buy but limited supply right

now. ultimately for all auto makers, that's why the used market is hot. we're hear act the ripple effects to other industries. you have the comments out of samsung warning about the chip shortage as well overnight but in terms of the auto makers here in the u.s., i mean, hyundai's north america ceo was on closing well last week. he mentioned they're probably in a better position than fellow auto makers because they secured more supply before it was a really big issue i guess are there potentially winners and losers in all of this when you look among the different companies and their ability to manufacture in their supply chains? >> to a small extent there is, morgan almost all the auto makers, those more impacted than others, and take, for example, hyundai says it's in good shape in terms of production in north america versus honda which will have to do suspension of production next week they're targeting as much as possible, the high volume, high demand vehicles.

so as much as possible, they're saying what are we making that is on the lower end? that's not really selling as well and almost everything is selling. we're going to de-emphasize that and target our chips for the higher end models. there is slight benefit to some auto makers but not a huge one >> phil, thank you >> you bet >> as we head to break, two of 2021's high flyovers are pulling back i've been focussed on these for weeks. at the heights yesterday viacom was up 160% for the year e cliclipse eclipsing -- it's reversing. take a look at the charts and you'll see how much both of the stocks have been up. many have shorted them along the way. only to suffer enormous pain if any are left today, perhaps feeling a tiny, tiny bit better as they move to valuations the likes of which certainly for viacom, it had not seen in a very, very long time there's a lot more "squawk on

the street" right ahead. stay with us

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estimating that amazon sales of apparel and footwear grew roughly 15% last year. that's 20 to 25% above rival walmart. david, this fascinating to me. i mean, obviously it speaks to how people were making purchases in the past year in the midst of the pandemic for so many years we talked about how tough a nut it was to crack for amazon to break into fashion. let alone high fashion and certainly the end roads seem to be growing pretty heftily at least based on uvs's data. >> the willingness of consumers to have things delivered at home that typically you would want to fit in a store here we are. morgan, i don't know how many shoes you're ordering. i have to say in my household, there's a lot of them arriving >> and they have made returns so much easier. that's part of the story you can have a bunch of stuff shipped to you, try it on and return what you don't want right, carl? that's what we're doing in my

house. >> the logistics have made it closer to being able to go into a physical space and buy what you need restaurant ordering technology provider olo making the dayebut at the nyc. we have the founder and ceo along with kate rogers noah, congratulations. it's great to have you >> thank you it's great to be on your program. >> olo, of course, i guess is short for online ordering. i think danny meyers on the board owns quite a few shares. walk us through the model here and how it fit before and how it's going to fit now as the economy and certainly restaurants reopen >> yes so we are the platform that restaurant brands are building their direct to consumer channels on top of so restaurants like shake shack and five buys burger and fries can let their customers order ahead, pay ahead, get their food faster or get it delivered. a great tie in to what you were

speaking about we think restaurants have a great interest in being able to meet the needs of the on demand consumer that consumer wants things to be available to them when they arrive or delivered to them same hour and we think that over time, that's what our platform really has is the long-term opportunity. >> so the notion that we're going to go back into restaurants in person order in person, wait in person, you think that sort of is broken in the mess of all this >> no. i think there are many occasions when consumers want to dine at a restaurant, and there are many more occasions it turns out the majority of transactions in the restaurant industry are what are called off premise transactions. that's made up of takeout being the largest part drive through and delivery coming into covid-19, takeout was a whopping 39% the plurality of all restaurant transactions that's primarily where we help restaurants is dingtizing the takeout transaction. the food is ready when they get

there. it's also helping with drive through and deliveryin a big way as well. that part of the industry has run a lot. also digital orders for in restaurant dining has emerged. for the first time we saw restaurants putting qr codes on tables, tables, let the customer order and the order is run out to the consumer digital is a big part of the restaurant's future and we are the platform that is digitizing the restaurant industry and has been over the past 15 years. >> noah, congratulations on the ipo today. glad to have you on. i'm curious about the demand you, particularly over the past year your revenue is up nearly 100% year-on-year how many new customers did you add since the pandemic started, and how quickly did you have to kind of engage them and leverage your platform to help make their lives easier >> we really saw restaurants without an on-demand commerce

platform in place realizing it would be their lifeline during this time. so clearly a loolt of restaurans coming on to the olo platform, speeding up the deployment, i think bigger story is the consumer shift over to on-demand ordering as the most convenient way and the safest way of getting the food from the restaurants that they love we're really excited about that. we don't think that's just a covid story, not by any means. if you look at the history of our platform and the order growth, it has been growing exponentially year over year we processed about 15 million orders and doubled to 200 million in 2019. we've had a great year last year, really supporting the restaurants that our customers, acting as a mission critical platform for their overall business we celebrated getting olo order number 1 billion to close out last year. we're excited about that future and what it's meant for the adoption curve of restaurant

brands coming on to on demand commerce and many consumers trying it for the first time and deciding this is a safer and more convenient way of doing it, but in the future, not with v or with -- worrying about safety, this is the way we're doing it and from this point forward. >> digital ordering is expensive for restaurants. the yld behind olo is to help them hang on to more of that revenue. explain how you do that and what happens to the important customer data? to the restaurants retain more of that? >> we don't take 20% or 30% off the top from the restaurant, er eroding their profits. the restaurant holds on to the data but also our transactional software to service model means the restaurant pays a fixed fee per location and a fee per transaction, but in a way that scales for our business as they grow theirs and ultimately becomes less expensive per

transaction as they graduate into higher tiers of volume. we're about helping the restaurant capture its guests directly in a way that's efficient for them and in a way that retains that long-term relationship, that direct trusted relationship with the consumer >> noah, it's morgan given the incredible growth you saw last year and adoption by different companies toward your product, how great is the runway for further adoption within the restaurant industry? and perhaps just as importantly, the digital in-store piece of the puzzle, what is that going to mean in terms of greater adoption also? how many people work in the front of a restaurant? >> we really think about the opportunity just selling what we sell today, who we sell it too and the geography where we sell it, meaning online ordering around delivery and marketplac management to enterprise restaurants in the u.s. and can do we identify that as a $7 billion opportunity coming off a year we did about $100 million in

revenue. we believe there's a huge runway ahead, and that will be the further digital penetration into our restaurant brands on the platform and more restaurant brands from more location coming on in terms of kwhat mean what it r the workforce, how it can shift the labor hours to true digital hospitality. that's something danny meyer, a board member and investor of ours, talks about. how can you make it more efficient delivering hospitality so they can have data to enrich the experience the things we replace, someone taking your money and entering your order into a point of sale system, those are not high hospitality moments within restaurants. those are someone handing you your food and having a conversation with you. that's the kind of thing we're excited to enrich going forward. >> given the fact you are in this unique position between the restaurants and the delivery companies, what do you expect that delivery situation, that

landscape to look like will there be more consolidation? are those fees going to come down how do you think about that as you continue to grow your offerings? >> what we've seen over time is some consolidation i think that's been broadly reported also a proliferation of different demand channels. we see the big delivery marketplaces, the players like doordash, uber eats, post mates are great partners of ours we have a new breed of what we call olo network affiliates, companies like google entering into the space with google food ordering, helping customers find their rerzs srestaurants on goo place their order from there there are a lot of different market places coming we want to work with the players in the ecosystem we have an ecosystem of over 100 different partners we're excited about what that means for the restaurant to be able to control their digital experience, retain their consumer, but also have a great set of partners they can work with and hopefully as part of

that great working relationship find economic models that work for them, keeping their customers coming direct and truly receiving the incremental orders from the third-party channels that that's interesting. i was going to ask you, noah, about the software itself. the ordering part as a layperson kind of sounds simple once you get it it makes sense. but are there things that you think the software will be able to do in five years that at this point are still a dream? >> well, i think we have been dreaming up new use cases of olo since covid-19 hit and since our customers came to us we together agreed let's tear up the product roadmap and create a new one that makes sense for the era. curbside pickup and enhancing that experience, drive-through pickup, socially distant delivery where the consumer is receiving their order without being face-to-face with the delivery driver. those have become important. also qr code ordering at the table have become very

important. we believe there are many different use cases for the platform at the core of it, it is a simple idea, but it's worth noting that e-commerce for restaurants is so much more complex than e-commerce 1.0. this is not a list of skus think of the ways you can modify and customize, substitute something out for something else in, a coffee, burger, salad. that is what our platform has to surface for the customer in an intelligible interface in a way that's hard coded to high comply with the restaurant's rules. that is very complex, not for the fanlint of heart, a big rean we we've been at this for 15 years and have built something that's hard if not impossible for others to replicate. >> noah, congratulations we'll watch you closely. kate, of course, as always, our thanks to you. we'll take a short break her quk le se."sawaly"tarts in a moment and unmatched overall value. together with a dedicated advisor, you'll make a plan that can adjust as your life changes,

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