to tech, verizon, oracle, ibm, viacom so a little media, a little old database that's what's higher. >> that's a motley crew of stocks, that's for sure. jon, it's been fun thank you for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. >> welcome to "the closing bell." i'm wilfred frost along with sara eisen a rates-led divergence dow almost flat, nasdaq sharply lower. a spike in bond yields is once again fueling a sell-off in tech apple down 2%, tesla down 5% on the other side we're seeing a rally in bank stocks, value outperforming growth but energy is down big. actually the worst performing sector as we speak and jobless claims came in a bit worse than expected, but some reopening plays in retail, entertainment, industrials are holding up today

59 minutes left in the session we are down 2.4% on the nasdaq, sara >> anything higher on the s&p and dow would be a record. looks like we're losing momentum coming up on today's show, signet jewelers up more than 7% from the lows and jumping today on earnings. we'll ask the ceo if the return of in-person weddings and flood of stimulus checks will drive more upside. plus, are people ready to go back to gyms we'll get a read when we speak with the ceo of planet fitness and some big earnings coming after the bell, including fedex. we'll bring you those as soon as they hit. let's focus on the big stories we are watching today. mike santoli tracking the market action joining us, kathy jones from charles schwab mike, set the stage on stocks. >> we mentioned yesterday

sometimes there's a reassess meant on the day after the morning after a fed orning the fact that jay powell said long yields have to do what they're going to do and we're just going to worry about the short end and the asset purchases, testing the tolerance of equity investors, especially growth investors and that rotation was disturbed by the sloppy trading in energy so here you go we're sort of going back to last month's highs and kicking around that area for a while, the mid-3900s. we have these testing periods so we'll see if the s&p as a whole can hold together. take a look at the 30-year treasury yield over the last two years. we always look at the 10-year for good measure, but basically hitting 2.5% earlier today as you can see, we've been here before but it's been a while it's also a little bit of a significant area right there where you kind of broke down going back into the latter part of 2019. that's when the yield curve was flattening so you haven't seen it for a

while. we've got a big move in a short period of time if you want to look at equity valuations relative to the treasury, this is the so-caso-called equity risk premium where people figure out if stocks or bonds look more attractive, it basically has gotten compressed and it's the lowest level, meaning the smallest level since we've seen basically since the year 2000. at least since the global financial crisis look, we spent the entire of the '90s below that. in other words, with stocks more expensive versus bonds so i think it's more psychological and more about the trade-offs and whether you want to rebalance out of equities and into fixed income. clearly you're stretching the valuation regime we've been in for something like 12 years now, guys. >> it's a really good chart. mike, i do think we have to home in on energy worst performing sector. crude oil, wti is down almost 8%

right now. you've got a stronger dollar, i guess. what else is dragging the price of oil lower >> first of all, crude oil, just the price just on the chart was more extended than it has been in 22 years in terms of how far it came in a short amount of time so you're giving back some of that i don't know if you also have a rates effect here. i don't know why you would but it seems like right now that it's a risk asset. let's be honest, it's traded like a risk asset. i don't think this is about a growth reassessment for demand, it's much more about the market mechanics. >> impressive to see gold and silver hold up today in light of that mike, thank you. lots more to come of course on the equity market throughout the final hour we are down a full percent on the s&p and the dow is negative accompanying the nasdaq. let's talk more about bonds and yields and bring in kathy jones from charles schwab.

let's go short term, first of all, if we can in this latest leg up for bond yields to 1.72 on the 10-year as mike as pointing out is that all because of fed or are there international factors playing into this in this last day or two >> i think there's a combination of things. but one of the big things that happened overnight where we saw yields trip up pretty quickly past the 1.70 level was that we got rumors out of japan that the bank of japan may be heading back on its etf purchases and widening the band where it would allow bond yields to go and that could have triggered some selling in treasuries as investors there decided to raise some cash. so the timing of it certainly looks like it's consistent with when the talk came out and we saw an 8 or 9 basis point move in a very short period of time so i think that contributed. along with whoever was positioned the wrong way at the end of the day and decided to

square up their positions. >> and what is your expectation from here, kathy do we continue to march higher, closer to 2%, for example, on the 10-year? and what are the key factors that will drive that is it purely the fundamentals or will technical factors start to take hold? >> i think the direction of travel is toward 2%. we came in expecting 1.6 on the 10-year but underestimated the amount of fiscal stimulus we would get. we thought it would be less than a trillion and here we're almost 2 trillion and the reopening of the economy has been faster because the vaccinations are rolled out faster. so 2% seems like a reasonable target on the upside i do think we have an awful long way in a short period of time, some consolidation seems likely. but what we really don't expect is seeing much action from the fed to offset this so real growth is up, real rates are up we've come from 50 basis points

at the trough of the pandemic to 1.75ish. although that's a big move, think about how much the economy has improved in that period of time so to us it's partly about positioning and hedging and all those things, but it's also really a reflection of the economy shifting gears very fast >> but if it continues at this rate and we see a sharper slide in equities in the nasdaq and it becomes what the fed would deem disorderly, kathy, what would that look like how fast -- it seems like the levels aren't the concern here, it's the speed at the moves and what that does to overall financial conditions, which the fed has to be taking note of. >> yeah, absolutely. i think jay powell mentioned financial conditions a couple of times yesterday in response to questions. so the key there is credit spreads, right so what the fed really wants to do with financial conditions is make sure that companies, individuals, whoever is

borrowing money has access to capital at a reasonable price. and so what we're seeing is credit spreads are still low so anybody that wants to borrow money in the capital markets isn't having too much trouble. if you want to refinance your mortgage, you're not having too much trouble if you want an auto loan, you're not having trouble getting it. the rate is up a little bit from where it was six weeks ago but the capital is available so unless we see tightening in those financial conditions and access to capital being reduced, i don't think the fed israel step in. >> what's outlook for the dollar from here, kathy >> yeah, you know, i am more in the camp that there's room for it to go down than up. people made a big deal with the rebound in the dollar, but the thing we came down from 15% to up 4% or 5%. that's not a lot if the fed continues to keep a really, really easy policy and we see any improvement in what's going on in europe in terms of the vaccine rollout and

stabilization and e.m., i think the dollar can drift a bit lower than here. >> just in terms of the message from the bond market, kathy, i know obviously higher growth is something everybody including the fed welcomes but a day after fed chair powell said we're not looking to talk about tapering, not yet, not talking about higher interest rates, not talking about liftoff, is the fed -- is the market testing the fed here if it's sending a message that we don't believe you? >> well, it isn't just -- i mean this is the new world. i think the market is having trouble adjusting to the fed's reaction function. the fed believes that they can keep rates low for a long time even with all this stimulus going into the economy and not really ignite long-term inflation, and that is completely upside down from what most of us have lived with for the last 30 or 40 years. i think the market is having a lot of trouble adjusting to that

proposition. we'll see who wins here. i do think the move up in yields will be self-limiting because at some point it will hit other asset classes enough probably to slow things down but i think the market has got to get used to the new fed it is a different world. >> kathy jones, thank you for joining us story of the day, 10-year note yield 1.71, got as high as 1.75 much more on the market straight ahead. shares of signet jewelers have climbed more than 700%. the stock is jumping on the back of strong earnings we'll talk to the ceo about how to keep up the momentum. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. dow is down 39 points. nasdaq down more than 2%

don't like surprises? [ watch vibrates ] proactive notifications from fidelity keep you tuned in all day long. so when something happens that could affect your portfolio, you can act quickly. that's decision tech, only from fidelity. ♪ ♪ (upbeat music) you can act quickly. ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

see every delivery... every yikes... and even every awwwwwwww... wait, where was i? introducing self protection from xfinity. designed to put you in control. with real-time notifications and a week of uninterrupted recording. all powered by reliable, secure wifi from xfinity. gotta respect his determination. it's easy and affordable to get started. get self protection for $10 a month. welcome back rising rates hitting tech stocks hard today here's a check on the nasdaq heat map for you pretty much at session lows for the nasdaq also at session lows for energy, although financials still hold on to more than 1% of gains.

but the nasdaq comp is down 2.5% oil is down 8% the energy sector within the s&p down nearly 4% with 45 minutes or so left shares of signet jewelers higher today following earnings just before the bell along with a beat on the top and bottom lines, the company also reported better than expected same-store sales and offered very strong guidance for the year ahead today's gains come on top of a huge rally, the stock skyrocketing more than 700% in the last year. joining us for a "closing bell" exclusive, the ceo jenna great to have you back on the show, welcome. >> good to see you, sara. >> so the numbers were a beat and the outlook was very strong, double-digit growth expected where is all this demand coming from >> well, i think the jewelry category in general has been an important one during covid everyone has taken stock of

what's most important to them and wants to express that. of course that's what our products allow people to do is celebrate life and express their love to those who matter we've been very active in helping our customers do that in new ways with targeted marketing. we're reaching new customers that we couldn't before. it's a very data driven approach we've launched a lot of new capabilities on our websites from conversational messaging to virtual try-on i think customers have been able to find opportunities with us. >> e-commerce sales spiking 71%. so that's proof of the strategy right there. how does it change the way, gina, you think about the business going forward and how much of that is coming from online and how much from stores, as you are in the process of closing a lot of those stores? >> well, i think we can continue to grow our business online.

i was very pleased to see that in the third and fourth quarter, even after our stores reopened, we still saw e-commerce growth north of 60% that's a real testament not only to the e-commerce capabilities that we've built but to our store teams. they have done a terrific job creating what we're calling connected commerce really making these technologies make a difference to customers, whether they're shopping online or in our stores so i couldn't be more appreciative to our signet team. they have learned new things in a very agile and flexible way and bringing new experiences to customers. we are continuing to optimize our store footprint. we've significantly reduced our exposure to low traffic malls. we're seeing better transference when we close a store and i think that's what an enduring competitive advantage for signet is a strong store footprint, a

very strong banner portfolio, the best experts in the business who are working there and now we've brought a digital capability to that to connect it altogether >> what is the outlook for weddings you've got a good front-row seat on the engagement business is there a lot of pent-up demand now that we can hopefully start to have weddings again toward the back half of the year? >> well, engagements have been flat to down bridal is a growing business so we've been getting a disproportionate amount of that share and i'm very proud of the team to do that. certainly there's a lot of pent-up demand for weddings and we may see some of that flow into engagements as well we've moved to an always-on marketing approach within our business, so we're talking to customers who are

pre-engagement, 18 months before they make that decision to get engaged. we can see the signs of what they search online and things like that, so we're able to understand what they're looking for. now we're seeing really interesting trends, colored stones, fancy shapes and new designers are trending right now in the bridal category >> what about stimulus checks, gina, do you see a direct link there? people spending those checks on jewelry, on your product >> we usually see a benefit from stimulus checks, both as people decide how they're going to spend those, but also as they're able to meet more of their basic necessities. i think the other potential tailwind, sara, in the front half of the year and in the next few months is tax refund checks. those are behind they're at least two weeks behind when we would normally see those. so we've seen very strong sales to date in our first quarter

globally we're up 16% quarter to date north america that's 20% i think we could see that flow through into a strong second quarter, but we're very cautious on the back half of the year as the vaccine rolls out and more people are more interested in traveling and entertainment, things like that again, we think that could potentially have a anythin negative impact on categories like jewelry. >> i wanted to ask about your recent move to increase your minimum wage to $15 per hour for all of your part-time and full-time associates my question is why now is it because of the biden administration or walmart's move what factored in >> no, it's because it's the right thing to do. we actually started increasing the minimum wage for our employees during fiscal 2021 so we started with our distribution center workers, our

customer care team, many of our in-store associates already make above a $15 wage that's because their salaries are based both on a base salary and also a commission. but we felt it was important to elevate everyone we know that the customer experience can never exceed the employee experience, and we want signet to be an even better and better place to work >> gina drosos, thank you for joining us appreciate it. off a strong quarter for signet. >> thank you. we have 40 minutes left in the session. we're near the session lows, particularly on those tech and energy stocks, which are the worst performers the nasdaq is down 2.5%. after the break, lordstown bumpy road following a news making interview earlier on cnbc, we'll hear what the ceo said that may have spooked investors, down 12% today. as we head to break, check out some of the top search tickers

the 10-year yield remains on top followed by tesla, apple, gamestop and the nasdaq. we'll be right back. lately, it's been hard to think about the future. but thinking about the future, is human nature. at edward jones, our 19,000 financial advisors create personalized investment strategies to help you get back to your future. edward jones. ♪ ♪ - [narrator] if you're thinking about going to school online, southern new hampshire university is where you belong. we've been online for more than 25 years and have helped thousands of students reach their goals. as a nonprofit university, we believe access to high quality education should be available to everyone. that's why we offer some of the lowest tuition rates in the nation, and haven't raised tuition in nearly a decade. so no matter where you want to go, snhu can help you get there.

visit snhu.edu today. we see access to fresh food being the global norm, not the exception. at emerson, our cold chain software and technology keep perishable food at proper temperatures, to assure its safety and quality. emerson. consider it solved. to assure its safety and quality. dana-farber cancer institute discovered the pd-l1 pathway. pd-l1. they changed how the world fights cancer. blocking the pd-l1 protein, lets the immune system attack, attack, attack cancer. pd-l1 transformed, revolutionized, immunotherapy. pd-l1 saved my life. saved my life. saved my life. what we do here at dana-faber, changes lives everywhere. everywhere. everywhere. everywhere. everywhere.

another big sell-off at the nasdaq led by more tech weakness higher valuation companies getting pounded today. here's a look at some of the big's losers okta down 8%, 7% tesla down almost 6% lower tesla is about 26.7% off its

highs. semi conductors have been dragged into the selling as well as some big cap tech like google, netflix, nvidia, paypal, microsoft, amazon, all under pressure today wilfred, on those rising rates. >> small caps down 2.3% as well. shares of lordstown motors are hitting the brakes after the company said it received an s.e.c. inquiry relating to short seller accusations our phil lebeau made some news in his interview with the ceo and he joins us now with some of the key takeaways. hey, phil. >> the interview that we had this morning with steve burns from lordstown motors focused on a couple of key things yesterday they mentioned that the s.e.c. is looking into claims made by hindenberg research that the companies past allegations about its interest in its first vehicle, those are fictitious orders. so we put the question to steve

burns this morning are these truly orders or just indications of interest? >> we queried them, we have very robust interest. they're letters of interest. you can't do any more than that in this stage. so i don't think anybody thought that we had actual orders. that's just not the nature of this business. >> maybe the nature of the business in terms of people expressing interest, but they were termed as orders at times by lordstown motors in the past and that's at the heart of this issue. now the focus is this pickup truck right here this is the endurance, an electric pickup truck. they are scheduling production starting in september, and they believe that there is a robust market out there for the endurance. >> so, you know, to find out what price would they pay, would they buy it from a new oem like us, what's under warranty, we've gone out and queried fleets and

people have talked to fleets and we have got an unbelievable reception. >> lordstown along with really all of the ev stocks under pressure today we should point out for lordstown just within the last couple of hours, morgan stanley analyst adam jonas, who really is one of the key analysts that a lot of people follow on the street when it comes to electric vehicle manufacturers, he came out with a note and he has cut the price target on lordstown from $18 down to $12, citing the fact they're going to have increased spending on capital expenditures so a bumpy day, to say the least, for lordstown motors. guys. >> phil, thank you still to come, earnings from two stocks that have more than doubled over the past year we'll preview what to watch for from fedex and nike in just a few. shares of live nation getting a pop following an announcement from new york's governor those details next. as we head to break, another check for you on bonds center of the action today,

yields seeing a big pop. the 10-year note yield climbing for a 14-month high touching right above 1.75%. off those levels now at 1.70 instead of a break we're taking you to the white house where president biden has just taken the podium let's listen in. >> some would suggest it's somewhat audacious experts said that the plan was, quote, definitely aggressive and distribution would have to be seamless for us to be successful one headline simply put it, quote, it won't be easy, end of quote. it wasn't. when i took office, when we took office, there was a lot to do to be done. we needed more vaccines, more vaccinators, more places for people to get vaccinated and we needed a whole of government approach. so i directed jeff zientz, the

coordinator of our covid-19 response, to put us on a war footing, and i met that in a literal sense, to get us on track to truly beat this virus i'm proud to announce that tomorrow, 58 days into our administration, we will have met my goal of administering 100 million shots to our fellow americans. that's weeks ahead of schedule and even with the setbacks we faced during the winter storms and there's another big step on the path to checking -- putting checks in pockets and shots in people's arms. when we crossed the 50 million doses, just three weeks ago, i told you that every time we hit the 50 million mark, i'd update you on our progress. so here's where we are today eight weeks ago only 8% of seniors, those most vulnerable to covid-19, had received a

vaccination. today, 65% of people age 65 or older have received at least one shot and 36% are fully vaccinated and that's key this is a population that represents 80% of the well over 500,000 covid-19 deaths that have occurred in america we have nearly doubled the amount of vaccine doses that we distribute to states, tribes and territories each week. we have gone from 1 million shots a day that i promised in december before we were even sworn in to an average of 2.5 million shots a day, outpacing the rest of the world significantly. and here's how we accomplished this using the power given to a president under the defense production act, we expedited critical materials in vaccine

production, such as equipment, machinery and supplies we work with vaccine manufacturers to speed up the delivery of millions more doses and brokered a historic manufacturing partnership between competing companies who put patriotism and public health first. these steps put us on track to have enough vaccine, enough vaccine supply for every adult american by the end of may, months, months earlier than anyone expected. we stood up or supplied more than 600 community vaccination sites that are administering hundreds of thousands of shots per day. we launched the federal pharmacy program, which has allowed millions of americans to get a shot at one of 14,000 local pharmacies in this country, the same way they get their flu shot and for folks who aren't near a

pharmacy or mass vaccination center, we've supplied more than 500 mobile clinics by pop-up sites or vans, meeting people where they are, meeting people where they are we developed nearly -- we deployed nearly 6,000 federal personnel, including fema, active duty military and department of health and human services to support vaccinations and serve as vaccinators, putting the needle in people's arms we're also supplying vaccines to community health centers to reach those who have been the hardest hit, the hardest hit and suffered the most, especially black, latino, native american and rural communities. this is really important because we believe that speed and efficiency must be matched with fairness and equity.

now, vice president harris and i took a virtual tour of a vaccination center in arizona not long ago, one of the nurses on that tour injecting people, giving vaccinations, said that each shot was like administering a dose of hope, a dose of hope that's how she phrased it. behindthese 100 million shots are millions of lives changed when people receive that dose of hope grandparents can hug their grandchildren again. frontline workers who can show up at their jobs without the same fear they used to have. teachers with the confidence to head back into the classroom these milestones are significant accomplishments, but we have much more to do. much more to do. the american rescue plan will

help us do it. in addition to the cash payments it provides to you and your families, it also provides the funds to add vaccinators, to supply more community vaccinations, support more vaccination centers, and increase testing it will help us accelerate nationwide efforts to reopen our schools safely as i told the nation last week, i've directed all states, tribes and territories to make all adults eligible to be vaccinated no later than may the 1st. i'm glad to see that several states are already taking that step to make more and more americans eligible, even before may 1st. tomorrow we will hit 100 million doses our administration has administered but i always said that's just the floor. we will not stop until we beat this pandemic. next week i will announce our

next goal to put shots in arms this is a time for optimism, but it's not a time for relaxation i need all americans, i need all of you to do your part wash your hands, stay socially distanced, keep masking up as recommended by the cdc and get vaccinated when it's your turn now's not the time to let down our guard. in the last week we've seen increases in the number of cases in several states. scientists have made clear that things may get worse as new variants of this virus spread. getting vaccinated is the best thing we can do to fight back against these variants while millions of people are vaccinated, we need millions more to be vaccinated. and again, i need you to get vaccinated when it's your turn, when you're able to do that.

i need your help i need you to help not just the country, but your family, your friends, your neighbors. get them vaccinated as well. if we keep our guard up, stick together and stick with the science, we can look forward to a fourth of july that feels a bit more normal with small groups able to gather for cookouts in backyards and where we begin to declare our independence on independence day from the virus look, together, together we're going to come through this stronger with renewed faith in each other and our government that fulfills its most important function, protecting the american people. let me be clear again. wearing this mask in the meantime, making sure you wash your hands, making sure you socially distance and listen to the cdc. we've got to reach the point where we have herd immunity,

meaning where we have a vast majority of the american people have been vaccinated before we can stop wearing these so please, please, don't let what you see happening in europe that you see on television keep the faith, keep wearing the mask, keep washing your hands, and keep socially distanced. we're going to beat this we're way ahead of schedule. but we've got a long way to go i just wanted to bring you up to date i thank you very much and may god bless america and may god protect our troops thank you so much. >> mr. president, vladimir putin wants open talks would you agree to that? your reaction to the photo -- >> not stopping for questions there. president biden along with vice president kamala harris by his side giving an update, a progress report on the state of vaccinations in this country, saying we are going to get to his goal of 100 million

americans getting vaccines administered, covid-19 vaccines by tomorrow. let's go to kayla tausche who covers the white house for us for more reaction, kayla that and a plea to stay safe and get vaccinated. >> reporter: that's right, sara. president biden saying that the u.s. will hilt his goal of 100 million vaccines administered since inauguration on day 58 of his presidency last week in his prime time address he said that the u.s. would hit that on day 60, far surpassing his 100-day goal, which some critics said was a low bar to surpass, especially given the glide path that the u.s. was on with regard to vaccine distribution in the early days after inauguration. but president biden taking a victory lap and saying the u.s. is far ahead of schedule getting americans vaccinated, pleading with people eligible to go out and get the shot and suggesting that americans will be wearing masks until there is herd immunity, which is something

that medical professionals have said won't happen until later this fall. of course it also comes at a time when as the u.s. ramps up its own vaccinations, the u.s. has tapped into the federal stockpile to lend 4 million astrazeneca vaccines to canada and mexico which have been asking the u.s. for help in this regard and promising to pay the u.s. back later this year when th they receive vaccine doses that they have been promised. the white house confirmed it will do that and is finalizing plans to do so president biden reiterating that he wants to stay on track for that july 4th time frame for getting americans back together for backyard gatherings and say he will lay out his next benchmark for vaccinations next week sara and wilf. >> thanks so much for that the astrazeneca vaccine as well which was confirmed by the eu today to be safe and effective after a kind of back and forth the past week or so. we've got 21 minutes left of

the session. here's where we stand, near the session lows which we hit just moments ago, down 373 at the moment on the nasdaq or 2.75%. in fact that is the new session low as we speak. up next, planet fitness has jumped 200% from the pandemic lows, but how many people are really ready to head back to the gym? we'll ask the company ceo what he's seeing next. here's a quick check on the faang stocks big tech hit hard today. not quite the worst performing sector, that's energy, but tech is down 2.6. the nasdaq the laggard of the major averages we're back in a couple of minutes. hey, dad! hey, son! no dad, it's a video call. you got to move the phone in front of you like..like it's a mirror, dad. you know? alright, okay. how's that?

is that how you hold a mirror? [ding] power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools and interactive charts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the most and $0 commissions for online u.s. listed stocks. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. we made usaa insurance for busy veterans like kate. so when her car got hit, she didn't waste any time. she filed a claim on her usaa app and said, “that was easy.” usaa. what you're made of, we're made for. usaa.

welcome back the session lows, down 2.8% on the nasdaq the dow is down 140 points or half a percent, the s&p is down 1.4% shares of planet fitness up 200% over the past 12 months. the company saw memberships plummet in 2020 as gyms were forced to shut down but starting to see a comeback. as of january the company has 13.8 million members but at-home

fitness competitors weigh down their recovery the ceo is joining us now. thanks for joining us. clearly you guys had a jump in memberships in january, the start of this year to what extent is that the bottom over the next couple of years for you versus a kind of new year's resolution small-time bounce >> yeah, it was great, wilfred, and thanks for having me on. it was a troubling year for us our franchisees really worked hard throughout the year to stay open we've had no closures because of covid. it felt like december was the final trough of cancellations and the turn-around of us starting to rebuild our members back the first month ever, january, we had positive membership growth sense the time we closed. we reopened our stores, the majority of them, and added 300,000 net members in january so it was great to begin adding numbers to our stores and happy that as of today we have only 50 stores closed out of roughly

2,100 stores in the system hopefully those next 50 will be open shortly so a lot of good momentum going on >> chris, i'm curious how you are making customers feel safe what sort of measures you've implemented, how you're doing social distancing, are you requiring your staff to get vaccines, that sort of stuff >> yeah. we are not requiring them to get vaccines but they are required to wear masks, and our members while walking around the facilities in some states while they're working out if they're required in those states. we're following local guidelines in that sense. we also put in social distancing guidelines we have sanitization stations scattered throughout the fitness centers with paper towels and cleaning solutions the proper etiquette in our clubs is to clean the equipment before and after every use we have a crowd meter which the members absolutely love. so realtime you can see how busy your club is before you leave the house or work so you're able

to figure out a time that's more comfortable for you to come into the club we've done a lot of digital work in our app naturally while we're closed there's nothing much else to do so we've learned a lot throughout this past year. >> chris, we'll have you back on soon thank you for the snapshot this is the last commercial break we are going to take before the close up next, a preview of nike and fedex earnings and what's driving oil's sharp snapback those stories and more. hartford financial is up fi 15%, confirming an unsolicited takeover from chubb. we'll be right back. we help seniors compare and shop for medicare options in their areas using licensed, trusted advisors and an online platform. gohealth has compounded at 52% a year for 20 years. we believe we're just beginning to realize the opportunity to improve access to healthcare for consumers.

we believe we're just beginning to realize the opportunity i'm a verizon engineer, part of the team that built 5g right. the only one from america's most reliable network. we designed our 5g to make the things you do every day, better. with 5g nationwide, millions of people can now work, listen, and stream in verizon 5g quality. and in parts of many cities where people can use massive capacity, we have ultra wideband. the fastest 5g in the world. this is the 5g that's built for you. this is 5g built right. only from verizon.

this is how you become the best! [music: “you're the best” by joe esposito] [music: “you're the best” by joe esposito] [triumphantly yells] [ding] don't get mad. get e*trade and take charge of your finances today.

12 minutes left in the trading day. we are now in the closing bell market zone, commercial-free coverage of all the action going into the close mike santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. today we've got eugene profitt here as well we'll kick it off with the broader market we are making new lows as we speak into the close rising interest rates hitting big tech the nasdaq on pace to snap a three-day win streak here's the low for the dow on the day, 182 technology weighing us down. financials the only sector in the green. the nasdaq is now down more than 400 points or 3%, mike interest yields are higher but off the session highs. we got higher than 1.75. it's just a real loss of momentum into the close. >> they applied enough pressure and the huge cap stocks did

create a weight all day. the other thing is, and this has been an issue for a while, whether there can be this seamless rotation indefinitely you had industrials, home builders, energy, banks, all up 7% to 10% month to date coming into today so it's a matter of how much more can those groups give you we're still above the lows of a couple of weeks ago in the nasdaq and nasdaq 100, so it's trying to absorb this rise in yields ultimately if it becomes a flight away from risk in general, it is going to hilt the broader market and maybe cause some dip buying in treasuries. we also got headlines about maybe a modified shutdown in paris. there was a ripe environment for a little bit of a rethink. it seemed like yesterday was very much a mission accomplished moment after the fed and the market took it so well after it basically was told you guys are on your own when it comes to where long-term yields go.

>> eugene, what's your take on days like these? are these buying opportunities or do you want to let the volatility settle out and turn the corner to the upside. >> i'd let the volatility settle a little bit it's not really a surprise we've had a real run in value and energy now we have to focus on higher interest rates but we still have covid out there. a potential shutdown in paris, europe, is having a little bit of a vaccination hiccup. so i think that there's still some concern that some demand that we think will take off and run away won't come as readily as we're thinking. >> you're talking about demand, eugene oil prices down. wti 8.6% right now besides technology, energy is where the most pain is being felt would you buy in that space? it's been the best performing sector of the year. >> not now i think it's probably going to go down further, primarily because even though we have

states reopening and people are going to make plans for travel to start to increase, you start to hear some hints about carnival may be taking all of their bookings off of june and whether or not you're going to have run through europe. i think oil was up as a result of inventories building up and you're starting to see those build up again so i don't think the demand is there to really absorb all the oil even though there are threats of russia raising prices and saudi arabia putting more oil out. i think it's going to be a short-term issue. >> quite the intraday move for oil prices, now down about 8%. let's get more on that from piva what's behind this move? >> a big drop in oil its fifth straight day of losses and worst day since september. wti futures settled at $60 flat and now down about 8.5% in

extended trading brent crude also dropping about 7% so several factors driving the declines here. renewed lockdowns stalled vaccine rollout in europe sparked demand fears here in the u.s., inventory data showed a 2.4 million barrel build. fourth straight week of rising inventories. finally a stronger dollar also pressuring prices today amid fears that the added expense for foreign buyers could hit demand, so a lot of factors to watch going forward. back to you. >> pippa, thank you for putting it in perspective. a huge drop in oil prices. let's talk earnings. few, if any, retailers have weathered the pandemic as well as nike, which is set to report another strong quarter after the bell here are three things to watch in that report china. this has been a growth engine for nike for years and continues to be a main driver. it's also the anniversary quarter of the chinese lockdown so you should see substantial

growth analysts are predicting 30% or so e-commerce nike pivoted to direct-to-consumer which includes the website, the sneakers app well before its competition and well before covid which has led to faster growth there are expectations for another 50% growth quarter for e-commerce and that brings us to margins. that's the other factor to watch. that play going directly to consumer online boosts profitability by cutting out the middle man, which is the retailer some analysts expect the financial model to change and margins to rise steadily for the long term. also full-price sneakers and how strongly nike, jordan and converse brands are resonating with consumers the stock is up 1% this year, underperforming value stocks and reopening plays as it was very strong in the pandemic, up 110% in the last 12 months. is it expensive, mike? >> it is it's still holding one of its highest valuations ever, even

based on 2022 earnings, but a lot of stocks in that category i would point to starbucks, where you have this enduring brand business model that's adjusted and it's basically seen as a net winner in terms of which way the world is going so it's basically, i think, going sideways as it kind of digests this huge boost in valuation that it got going a few months ago. >> let's go to fedex frank holland has a preview of that one for us. frank. >> shares of fedex down just about half a percent ahead of earnings that will cover the holiday shipping season. really the big thing to watch is the margin on the ground business that handles the majority of e-commerce and residential delivery in q2, the company was able to improve the margin year over year q3, however, could be a bigger challenge. with the holiday shopping season, vaccine transport and severe winter weather in february that caused major delays another key metric for ground is rev arenue per package

that actually increased last quarter. we'll have to see what it does this quarter. >> that will be an interesting read, mike, more broadly for economic pickup. but transports more broadly, what are we looking at there today and of late? >> in general they have been one of the stronger groups in fact the parcel business has been one of those factors as well as airlines here. fedex is a fascinating story because it's very typical of these cyclical stocks where you say buy them when they look expensive. well, what's happened to earnings forecasts for fedex's fiscal year is it's doubled since last june. so you buy them that way because earnings are too low and that's why they look expensive. so it will be interesting to see what they have to say about the coming months right here because the market is taking it a long way since those folks. >> eugene, do you still like these cyclical plays like transports and fedex >> i do, even though fedex also

is a little bit expensive. i think that as the economy does reopen, you start getting international priority shipments going, the margins are better there and fedex will do well they have done a good job of managing their cash during the pandemic with peak pricing, i'm looking forward to them having solid earnings and maybe they'll have a reversal here where solid earnings means the stock goes up versus what's been happening recently since fedex has not performed very well this year. nasdaq down 2.9%, just around session lows. the dow is also down 135 points. it was up earlier today. a little over two minutes to go in the trading day mike, what are you see in the internals, it looks like a weaker close. >> yes, everything has weakened up substantially since we were opening up in a very mixed fashion. it was basically a 50-50 day for the whole morning. things gave way as we lost some technical levels you see the new york stock exchange you got basically a 3.5 to 1

declining stocks versus advancing stocks, so clearly that is something that's going to get people's attention. you want to take a look at oil on a longer temrm perspective it's given up that $60 level this is a six-month look at crude. you see that last little acceleration push higher above 60 that is what's been unwound. we'll see if it can hold above these levels it got back all of the covid crash losses in a pretty big hurry. if you look at that, it doesn't look like the trend has been too disturbed just yet volatility index kind of a story here we talked about two straight enc closes below 20. one of the things that was keeping the volatility index pressing lower was the fact that the s&p was kind of not doing a whole lot on a given day because there was the push/pull of down

tech stocks. today it has been a comprehensive decline so we're not necessarily seeing any more bleed in the volatility index. we'll see if that was it or if it's just a blip, wilf. >> just over one minute left in the session. we are down 3% on the nasdaq a little bit more than that on the nasdaq 100 pretty close to the session lows s&p down 1.5%. the dow itself down 0.4%, despite a couple of banks like jpmorgan and goldman sachs still in the green today and flattering the dow overall because of that points performance within that index. financials is the only sector that is still in the green, up 0.6%. the other ten are in the red a handful of banks still holding on to a decent couple of percents of gains but outside of that there is very little green to speak of today. the bottom of the pile as we've been discussing, energy sector down 4.5% as oil prices slide significantly, down 8%, followed

by tech, communication services and consumer discretionary, all down 2% to 3% as the higher yield environment pressuressom of those richer p.e. stocks. yields off their highs but still up on the day, 171 on the 10-year, 2.46 on the 30-year the dollar is therefore higher and that's one of the reasons oil is down so much. gold holding on to a slight gain at the close, sara, the s&p 500 down 1.5%, dow one-half a percent and the nasdaq and nasdaq 100 both down more than 3%. >> pretty ugly close, especially for the nasdaq, down 3%. welcome back, everyone, to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen along with will fr fred frost and mike santoli. the dow ending down 153 points, boeing was the biggest drag on the dow. earlier today we had a new intraday record high and were up

sc as much as 212 points. it took a spill at the close the s&p 500 down 1.5%. worst day since february 25th when it fell 2.5%. apple was the biggest impact on the s&p. nasdaq, hardest hit, down 3% breaking a three-day win streak. on track for another down week heading into a friday. we're down about 1.5% so far on the nasdaq this would be the fourth down week in the last five, which speaks to the trend of tech being very hard-hit on the back of rising rates. the russell 2000 index of small caps got hammered hard today, down 3%. worst day since the end of february and down 3.6% so far for the week. coming up this hour, katie stockton on the recent rise in bond yields and why she doesn't think they will be a major headwind for equities. plus, we are awaiting a pair of big earnings from nike and fedex. we'll have instant reaction to

both results as soon as they are released. first let's talk about this sell-off eugene profit is still with us mark smith from ubs wealth management joins the conversation first, though, to you, mike, on that spiral in the final hour of trade. rising rates was a big culprit, but the nasdaq is getting hit pretty hard. >> rising rates has been the main fixation of everybody for understandable reasons you know, when it's really hitting the mega cap nasdaq stocks, it's hard to overcome that the market has managed to do that a fair bit and just essentially rotate toward strength now when strength gets a little overextended, this is one of the results here also i do think that you have pretty much the ripe conditions for something like a wait-and-see moment. we're up 80% on a 12-month basis on the s&p we are coming into a quarterly expiration sometimes it's a little bit of an occasion for some kind of chop and inflection point. in general, the market hasn't

gotten velocity because of the weight of the big growth stocks. so we're kicking around levels we first got to a few weeks ago. it's not necessarily damage to the overall trend but it shows you that this is really a main street over wall street year it's the opposite of what we saw last year which is why is the market doing so well when main street is suffering? this year it's why does the market get out of its own way when we might be looking at 10% nominal growth for 2021. >> today we saw the nasdaq down 3% and energy stocks down 4.6% which are you more inclined to buy on this pullback >> i'm inclined to buy the nasdaq because we're all still using many of these companies that are down today. if you have looked on the past month or two, you're having a decline in tech stocks, but you ask anyone you know, has anyone stopped using technology the answer is no last time i checked if that's the case, you've got to continue to dollar cost average in those

sectors when you're seeing a pullback like you're seeing today and like we've seen the last month >> not worried about the impact of rising rates on valuation >> again, you know, numbers are all that matter and a lot of these tech companies are sometimes duopolies, monopolies. but when you have a sector that has brought us out of the pandemic and people are now used to using all these tech stocks and, you know, it's not like you're going to get rid of your phone. you're not going to stop using zoom, and all these companies that have really changed the paradigm, i think you have to continue to buy these stocks no matter what rates are, because we're using them, they have customer base, and a lot of the times there's no competition. >> mike, in terms of the banks, i mean clearly they like rising rates environments and a steeper

yield curve which we've seen over the last couple of days though in a day like today when we've got all those factors playing into them, the fact that they gave up all those gains as well, does that suggest we're starting to get into top territory for some of these cyclical sectors >> arguably, yes just in terms of valuation actually, depending on how you want to measure it is definitely at the high end of the range that we've been at for the decade, but also just in general, they become momentum and so people have actually rushed into them i'm not suggesting that they're overowned, that people basically have made them core positions forever, but they definitely have a lot of hot money in them so i think you see a little difficulty of adding day after day after day to these sectors we knew this was a structural issue with the market when it comes to where the market cap was allocated and the fact that it's -- depending on how you want to slice it, 40% plus tech or tech-like, when that stuff is out of favor, it's hard to make up the difference with the

cyclicals. so anything that's going on today that said that the total complexion of the market has changed, but when certain things need a rest and energy has a really ugly day, there just aren't a lot of answers in terms of holding up the broad index. >> eugene, in the last hour president biden said that he's on track, that the u.s. is on track to administer 100 million covid-19 vaccine bias ty tomorr earlier than expected. there was a day when vaccine headlines would move the market. is that all just factored in at this point >> almost, but not completely. i think that interest rates certainly are taking a bigger focus at that, but i don't think that the focus on covid is gone. i do think that the concern around interest rates is if the economy takes off, we're going to have runaway inflation and i don't think that's necessarily going to be the case because you're going to have some hiccups. thank goodness our vaccine is being administered here.

i was surprised to learn that in europe, moderna is first going to be administered in april, right? and you've had runaway from the astrazeneca vaccine. so i don't think that we're going to get by without any hiccups. but the good news is that we are having vaccine in place and we are starting to have the economy open hopefully not going to get too many flare-ups as we're starting to see and cases increasing. we've got breaking news on the nfl with julia boorstin. >> the nfl announcing new 11-year media distribution deals with all of its media partners the nfl won't comment on the value of these deals, but sources tell me that this collective deal is worth more than $100 billion over the next 11 years to the nfl with its media partners paying on average about double what they paid before, with the exception of espn which i'm told will pay

about a third more than it was paying before. in a big move for streaming, amazon is acquiring exclusive rights to thursday night games for about a billion dollars. that's according to a source so you will have to be an amazon prime member to watch those games if you are out of market the nfl is also expanding digital rights across the board, so es. p n plus, peacock, paramount plus and others will have the ability to simultaneously stream games when they air on their networks, and abc has also acquired the rights to televise two super bowl games in this next cycle i spoke to the nfl's chief media and business officer and he tells me these deals have much broader reach and they'll have flexibility around scheduling to bring the best games into prime time windows and the nfl's partners will have more ability to innovate around those digitally streamed games and make them more interactive guys, back to you. mike, so some moving parts

there. i guess some of the traditional players will be pleased that they still have their stakes, but definitely ongoing increasing competition more broadly. >> without a doubt understandable the nfl will want to maximize potential viewership it's always been important to have a lot of distribution on traditional television, traditional tv, and the value of that mass brand. if you look at a list of the weekly leaders in ratings during football season, it's almost all football it's still one of the few mass audience pieces of content out there. >> let's get to fedex numbers which are just crossing. frank holland has them >> hey there, wilf shares of fedex up a percent after a beat on the top line and beat on eps, almost a quarter above estimates. fedex also raising its full-year guidance, raising it above estimates. remember, this is q3 so basically forecasting a very strong q4. the company also ratzed raised s

guidance on cap ex we're going to continue to dig through the numbers to look for highlights, but a beat on the top line, a big beat on the bottom line. shares of fedex up a percent right now. back over to you. >> frank holland, thanks so much mark smith, what's your take here >> listen, i think that everyone is getting the things pretty much online and so these companies are more necessary now than ever. so if there is a pullback, keep mine in because all my wife does is buy things online and it comes right in the mail, super convenient and no need to go to the stores anymore so if there's a buying opportunity, i'd get into these stocks >> stock up 1% after hours, mike what do you make of it, a little bit of an expectations game here, as you laid out. >> yeah, usually there is going

to be earnings momentum at this point in the cycle the analysts see no reason to be a hero and maximize what they're saying they're going to get. pretty much on course. sometimes you'll have people getting concerned even though they pass through some fuel costs and what's going on with the global economy if we have to worry about trade not coming back as far because fedex has the global trade exposure. and the stock is a little below its high so i think it's all sort of in tune with the macro environment that we've been expecting. >> eugene, what's your top sector pick for the rest of 2021 >> large cap technology. and i know that's a complete takeaway from other analysts the reason being that in some of the larger cap technology names here, faang names, you're getting into a scenario where they are actually becoming pretty valuation sensitive and you can start to buy them. i do think you've had a big runup in the cyclicals

they will continue to run. but if the markets are to reopen, technology is not going anywhere i wouldn't be buying zoom and the like i'm also not looking to chase reopening trades like carnival cruises or the movie theaters. i think that names like apple and google, intel, will do very well the balance of the year i think by the end of the year, you're going to see technology and maybe a little bit of large cap health care being the top two sectors. >> i just wanted to go back to the nfl for a moment, mike, and really flush this out, what julia reported about the new deals. obviously the nfl has a ton of leverage and still gets a huge audience, but live sports was really one of the remaining standouts of lyinear tv this new deal which incorporates a lot of the streaming giants, peacock tv and others, not to mention the direct deal with

amazon, it really feels like an inflection point where sports is going into the streaming world. >> sure. it's going to go there i think that the bigger issue is it's not going to go exclusively there. there's not going to be a real migration, it's just an enlargement of the pie, of the options of how you can watch it. you know, linear is still going to be in my view the way the overwhelming majority of people experience live sports i mean especially when we're talking about in-game betting -- >> but you don't think it accelerates cord cutting >> it might accelerate cord cutting for sure people can take it in certain ways we had the ceo of fubo on. their bet is that you can have a slim package of networks that get to a core of sports and a few other things that's going to happen i don't think that's really changed. it's just a matter of not going to be overtaking traditional ecosystem in this one area. >> eugene, mark, thanks so much for joining us

much appreciated. >> no problem. >> no problem. nike's earnings are expected to be released moments from now. we'll break them down and analyze fedex numbers and of course this big sell-off today mom and dad left costa rica, 1971. and in 1990, they opened irazu. when the pandemic hit, pickup and delivery was still viable. and that kept us afloat. keeping our diners informed on google was so important. the support from our customers, it honestly kept us going. i will always be grateful for that. hey, our worker's comp insurance is expiring. should i just renew it? yeah, sure. hey

there, small business owner. pie insurance here with some sweet advice to stop you from overpaying on worker's comp. try pie instead and save up to 30%. thirty percent? really? sure! get a quote in 3 minutes at easyaspie.com. that is easy. so, need another reminder? no, i'm good. reminder for what? oh. ho ho, yeah! need worker's comp insurance? get a quote in 3 minutes at easyaspie.com. welcome back down 3% for the nasdaq and the nasdaq 100 the russell just shy of a 3% decline. s&p down 1.5% and the dow down

half a percent only financials were higher. diverse performance between the two recent outperforming cyclical sectors with energy the worst performing. >> energy had its own issues, crude oil being a huge weight. but also just in general i do think we are reaching a little bit of an extent of how much people have an appetite for some of these cyclical groups that have run so far in this amount of time as we've said many times. value has become momentum. maybe it's broken stride just a little bit >> hey, guys, i've got nike just out with results it looks like a big miss on the top line, big beat on the bottom line here's what we have. nike reporting q3 earnings 90 cents a share, almost double the expectation of 48 cents a shy. revenues, though, a miss the expectation was around $11 billion. nike is reporting only $10.4 billion. i can tell you exactly where that's coming from north america the biggest mark the business, north american

revenues 3.56 billion. the expectation was $4 billion so that was the hit. e-commerce looking very strong, up 59% the reason for the miss, the ports, the supply chain issue. turns out because of nike's quarter, three weeks during the quarter, nike was not able to move product basically into north america. and that is what is accounting here for this miss on the top line driven by its key market in north america. i'm going to continue to dig through this i also just want to bring you one other point which is gross margin because it increased 130 basis points to 45.6%. that was also a beat and that was something analysts were watching very carefully as nike made this transition online and direct to consumer which is more profitable they were looking for higher margins. they got it. again, the miss driven by the ports and the congestion we've seen and we've been reporting on here on cnbc on the

west coast, which has impacted the flow of inventory and the timing of shipments. that's why guidance is going to be so important. they don't put it in the release, but they will likely do it on the call we'll see how fast they expect that business to bounce back to see if everything is back on track after that port con congestion sam poser as a buy rating on nike, $175 price target for the stock. sam, i don't understand why you guys, why the analysts missed this we knew from footlocker and a number of other companies that the port congestion was a problem. turns out three weeks where they can't deliver product is going to be a hit for nike. >> well, we were being told that it was sort of like a domino effect happening where december came in later in january, so on and so forth but we did not hear that they were shut down completely, and other major retailers, athletic retailers did exceptionally

well i also think that they're holding back some product. if you look at the gross margin and so on, there was no shortage of demand here and that's showing up in their gross margin there will be a lot of pent-up demand and from what we're hearing, pretty much everything nike is selling out as fast as it shows up. so this is -- i think this will pass fairly quickly and it will continue to work my guess is they just couldn't -- certain products that were being sold wholesale they couldn't make up for it to the same degree in their direct-to-consumer business. but it still was quite strong. >> i just want to go over a few more numbers by breakdown because it gives you a good snapshot of the world. so china, which has been the big growth driver, coming in much stronger than expected, up 51% revenue growth yes, they're lapping the quarter last year when china was in

lockdown but that's even better than i think most analysts were expecting. europe was down 4% and that is mandated lockdowns north america down 10%, the port congestion it looks like the stock turn-around is higher after hours. i guess you would view this on a buying opportunity on some weakness because of lockdowns and ports? >> i mean there's -- they managed what they did exceptionally well you know, if you talk to their wholesale accounts or if you look at what's out in the marketplace because of the ports, there's very little inventory out there. you know, and then you're going to have the stimulus even driving more demand, which is going to leave both their own businesses as well as their wholesale accounts exceptionally clean. my guess is that this is going to play catchup the entire -- for the foreseeable future and again continue to drive exceptionally good gross margin.

on the other side of things, one of the big changes we're seeing, and i haven't dug into the numbers completely, is that they're managing their expenses exceptionally well and that also contributed to the beat. you know, we haven't seen sgna leverage from these guys in a while so we think there's changes going on there as a result of efficiencies, some downsizing of the company and so on that's going to continue to pay dividends going forward. >> sam, clearly the stock has been a great performer other brands starting to take control to direct-to-consumer in the same way, in a way that is perhaps upside to other stocks even if nike is doing a great job? >> i mean post -- if you look -- most other companies who are doing this are emulating nike's demand creation strategy and keeping the supply below the demand and that's really been

the key to nike's success. we've seen the same thing with deckers and uggs, we're seeing the same thing with crocs and to a lesser degree, but we're seeing them switch it over, over at contour brands with lee and wrangler everybody is taking more control of the brands and bringing their story together and moving more to direct to be able to control the brand better appear to be winners. and i believe that those are going to be the winners both in the recovery and post the rec recovery, due to the strength of the brand and the way these various companies are managing their brands i'll throw in vf corp has another one in that regard as well. >> stocks had a bit of a turn-around here, up half a percent after hours. double-digit growth in the jordan brand, 8% growth in converse as well

sam poser, thank you for being with us to react to those nike earnings we appreciate it much more throughout the show. up next, mike santoli looking at why the charts suggest the recent spike in bond yields could be due for a pullback that could be music to a lot of tech investors' ears. plus bitcoin bouncing back after falling earlier in the week coming up, katy stockton on why bitcoin is helping investors gauge market sentiment that's next.

want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile, you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network? sure thing! and with fast, nationwide 5g included - at no extra cost? we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction... ...and learn how much you can save at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings.

another big slide for tech stocks let's go back to mike santoli who's looking at stocks versus bonds. mike >> from a different angle, sara. first of all, look at the performance year-to-date of the total u.s. stock market against the total bond market. really lopsided. what this means if you are a balanced investors that had 60/40 stocks/bonds you're something like 64/36 if you want to keep to the allocations in a mechanical way, you would be sliding some money from equities into bonds not everybody does it like clockwork. people may be rethinking it but that is the way the tidal shift should run this time of year, actually working very much in reverse last march if you

remember that's when the market did bottom now take a look also at the yield curve throughout history this is the difference between the 10-year yield and 2-year yield. we have gone from basically zero or slightly negative to about 155 basis points, more than 1.5 percentage points. that's about halfway to the maximum level we've ever reached. you've never gotten to 3% in the difference between 2s and 10s. even if you go back to the 1970s, this is basically the range you're working with all time unless something is going to be changing now, if the fed is keeping the two-year yield way close to zero, it's 0.15 or something like that, you have to ask exactly how much faster it's going to rise and how close it's going to get to that upper limit any time soon. so it would not be surprising to have that back off finally, people are very much positioned in a direction of betting on high rates. a very lopsided way. you might expect that to be an indicator in some way.

the volatility index has fallen sharply over the last two weeks. up next, katie stockton will join us to discuss. plus banker burnout. find out what's taking a toll on the mental and physical well-being of goldman sachs' junior bankers. here's a look at the biggest losers on the nasdaq today amid a big tech sell-off. we're back in a couple of minutes. for skin that never holds you back don't settle for silver #1 for diabetic dry skin*

#1 for psoriasis symptom relief* and #1 for eczema symptom relief* gold bond champion your skin

hey frank, our worker's comp insurance is expiring, should we just renew it? yeah, sure. hey there, small business owner. pie insurance here with some sweet advice to stop you from overpaying on worker's comp. try pie instead and save up to 30%. thirty percent? really? get a quote in 3 minutes at easyaspie.com. wow, that is easy. so, need another reminder? no, no no, i'm good. uh, yes please. oh. ho ho ho, yeah! need worker's comp insurance? get a quote in 3 minutes at easyaspie.com.

the volatility or fear index higher today but falling sharply the last two weeks posting its second close below 20 yesterday. a move showing the move in sentiment. joining us to break it down is katie stockton katie, before we get to the vix, i want to go to bitcoin because you say that's an important sent met tell right now why? >> i think it's a read on the retail sentiment the retail investor is really very interested in bitcoin we just published a weekly report that there's definitely an appetite for research around bitcoin and i think technical analysis is the best way to look at it. it's really important to differentiate between short, intermediate and long term because of the inevitable volatility there, right? so we look at the short term, it has an upward bias from a momentum perspective

however, there is about 16.5% downside just to the 15-day moving around alone and that just tells us that we can expect one thing, which is volatility that does also suggest that perhaps over the -- bitcoin will come off of its highs before then resuming its long-term. i think we need to pay attention to the time frame there. it's been a little bit of a read in terms of risk on, risk off from the restale tail investor. as i mentioned, if we come in and see bitcoin trading off 20%, it's probably that the market will be under pressure as well the correlation has increased over time so i think that's pretty interesting and i think that correlation breaks up as it sometimes does but we're looking at it for cues about how the retail investor feels about things.

>> can we just pull up your bitcoin compass, which is good we made a graphic of it. so are you saying it shows in the short term bit coin is a buy. pull up the graphic if we could. long term it's a buy medium term not so much and the same applies for stocks? explain this. >> not exactly the same would apply but for bitcoin we want to isolate it in a way that's easy to digest. sometimes the technical indicators can get complicated we wanted to isolate those moves over the different time horizons for us short term is days to weeks, medium term is weeks to months and long term is months to years so in the near term we want to take advantage of the momentum but probably better to avoid that before the long term. we believe in the long term in bitcoin. there was a massive breakout

just a few months ago. it wouldn't exactly apply to the equity market. we have a short-term bias for the s&p 500. we saw some weakness today and that came off of a short-term overbought reading we saw a nice relief rally for the major indices. the s&p 500 was at new all-time highs so really that pullback doesn't impact the charts in wuch of a negative way but it does remind us there's an overbought condition that needs to be worked off but when we look at something like the vix, which is a gauge of market sentiment, especially on the institutional side of things, we saw the vix take out that 20 level, which was a very important support level for the past year since the covid-19 correction hit the markets so that floor of 20 has now been taken out today irrespective of the rally. and to me that suggests that we've moved from a high volatility that's naturally associated with a pandemic to a

low volatility regime that beyond the very near term should allow the market to uphold its long-term uptrend. >> albeit volatility up again by the end of the session today tell us what you're thinking, katy, about cyclicals here and specifically between the two recent outperformers, banks and energy, which moved in opposite directions today. >> that's right. i have a bit of a contrarian stance on the cyclical sectors because in relative terms when you look at the likes of energy and selected area financials, they have short-term upside exhaustion and are losing upside momentum when you look at the ratios versus the s&p 500. at the same time we've seen some rotation that's come to the benefit of the large cap technology stocks. of course growth has really significantly underperformed value recently i think that's kind of here to stay for this year but in the near term it favors a little

rotation back into growth at the expense of some of these overextended value oriented areas of the market. >> so back into growth do we have to see treasury yields stop rising for that to happen >> i don't think we have to, but i think we probably will the treasury yields i have a bit of a contrarian view there as you can imagine, overbought if you want to use that label. i'm looking for consolidation on the breakout of what we've seen but within the context of an upside target that we can arrive at of about 2.1% and that's based on a retracement level and that's the next targeted level over the intermediate term and by that i mean three to four months or so i don't think that's going to be a major drag on the equity market the market seems very willing to look past this parabolic rise in treasury yields, at least for now. >> katie stockton, thanks for

joining us with your predictions. we appreciate it. when we come back, targeting taxpayers. details of a new scheme by hackers this tax season and how you can prevent them from taking control of your computer. as we head to break, here's a look at shares up. nike and fedex following their earnings reports this hour nike keeps going back and forth. started down, traded higher, now lower again. top line miss. fedex trading near highs after hours. up 3.5%. we'll be right back. if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades. for smarter trading decisions,

get decision tech from fidelity. ♪ ♪ we made usaa insurance for veterans like martin. when a hailstorm hit, he needed his insurance to get it done right, right away. usaa. what you're made of, we're made for. usaa woo! you are busy... working, parenting, problem solving. usaa. what you're made of, we're made for. at new chapter vitamins we've been busy too... innovating, sourcing organic ingredients, testing them and fermenting. fermenting? yeah like kombucha or yogurt. and we formulate everything so your body can really truly absorb the natural goodness. that's what we do, so you can do you. new chapter wellness, well done. we see engineers simulating the future to improve today. at emerson, our digital twin software makes power plants smarter, helping facilities optimize operations and increase worker safety.

emerson. consider it solved. see every delivery... and increase every yikes... and even every awwwwwwww... wait, where was i? introducing self protection from xfinity.

designed to put you in control. with real-time notifications and a week of uninterrupted recording. all powered by reliable, secure wifi from xfinity. gotta respect his determination. it's easy and affordable to get started. get self protection for $10 a month. welcome back time for a cnbc news update. president biden wants americans to stay vigilant and keep up safety measures to stop the spread of covid-19 but he also said tomorrow he will meet his goal of 100 million vaccine shots weeks ahead of schedule. >> this is a time for optimism, but it's not a final for relaxation i need all americans, i need all of you to do your part wash your hands, stay socially distanced, keep masking up as

recommended by the cdc and get vaccinated when it's your turn now is not the time to let down our guard. >> only four more jurors need to be seated in derek chauvin's trial for the death of george floyd. that's despite three jurors being dismissed earlier in the week. government forecasters expect warm and dry weather for most of the country this spring which will worsen drought conditions it also raises the likelihood of water use restrictions in california and the southwest now, sara, if there is any silver lining, those same forecasters say they're not projecting any major spring flooding, so there's that. i'll send it back to you. >> all right, rahel, thank you rahel solomon. up next, bank burnout. an internal survey on how junior bankers are feeling. that story straight ahead. as we head to break, a look

at the biggest winners and losers in the s&p 500 today which did fall 1.5%. we'll be right back. we see harnessing natural gas unleashing the promise of cleaner energy. at emerson, we advance the safety and efficiency of the lng industry to meet the world's need for reliable, affordable electricity. emerson. consider it solved.

welcome back it looks like goldman sachs junior invest bament bankers are

speaking out one analyst said my body physically hurts all the time and mentally i'm in a really dark place here to discuss is hugh sun, mike santoli joining the conversation as well this is a great story. tell us what this survey is and how we came to know about it. >> yeah. so look, it appears as though you had fairly disgruntled first-year analysts. wilfred, you know betterthan most, first-year analysts, fresh out of college, probably have some impression of what wall street is like and then they go into the buzzsaw of the reality of what it's like which is working potentially 100-hour weeks, working on pitch books and being at the beck and call of your bettors on the desk. so what appears to have happened is a bunch of one-years, first years on the tmt group, the

tech, media and telecom group out on the west coast decided to protest, but to do it in the most classically wall street way possible, which is to create an 11-page pitch book about why conditions are so bad and why ultimately they should be allowed to work perhaps 80 hours a week, which is one of the slides in this presentation. and so this got circulated around and started to actually get published on social media and leaked in full once that got out, it became inevitable that goldman had to deal with it. >> it's interesting, hugh, because as you said is what's not new is the idea that first or first five year even investment bankers are feeling a bit of burnout what is new is that these junior workers felt emboldened enough to speak out in a way that was probably meant to come back and bite goldman, created in the fashion you said it's likely to get leaked one way or another also what's new, i would argue, is that the bank would respond in the way that they did which is sort of warm and friendly and

sort of saying that, yes, we acknowledge things need to change 20 years ago i don't think either of those things would happen the only pushback and maybe mike will weigh in on this as well is we're not talking about people that are struggling to pay rent. we're not talking about people on basic minimum wage. this is someone that's probably earning $150,000 or over $100,000 so your pushback is like if you don't like it, quit the job. it's sort of hard to sympathize in total, mike. >> yeah. i agree with that. there's certainly the reflex cynical response which is this is the job, always has been the job and has always really known to be almost intentionally weeding people out i mean are you really somebody who's committed to this type of life do you see enough of a reward at the end of this careerwise and financially to stick with what is a grind it's grueling. now, i can also see there being the case where this generation of people coming into goldman, the actual upside arguably, the

guaranteed or likely upside in terms of what you're likely to earn in your career is less than it used to be 25 years ago, at least in terms of the median performer who stays at goldman, so maybe there was an idea that you could have a more work/life balance. it also wouldn't surprise me if it's even more busy because of spacs and the deal-making boom than the firm is anticipating and even in this context these folks are stretched pretty thin. >> hugh, question. i just wanted to ask if goldman is unique here i mean i know you're spotlighting them because you got your hands on this survey. but is there any reason to think that goldman is any different than any of the other investment banks? >> no, absolutely not, sara. no, that's a great point i think this is a slice, this is pulling back the view a little bit from wall street but it's happening everywhere and specifically, you know,

goldman, they're the number one ma advisor, they have been doing gang busters and probably number one and number two in spacs specifically so there's a reach why they're at the center of the storm and tmt teams would be at the center of the storm. so this is pretty standard operating procedure. one thing i would point out, wilfred, you said at the start that this is not the type of thing that would be allowed in the past i think that's such a great point. ten years ago, 15 years ago in a previous time, everybody associated with this would be fired. that's just a fact now this is sort of a warmer, gentler time on wall street, or it's supposed to be. once this is out they can't really do that anymore as you know, their ceo is on social media and they can't really be seen as that brutal. >> no. and one definitely questions whether you're putting it into a powerpoint like this, whether the intention of course was for it to be leaked and that would

raise, you know, potential need for further repercussion the final point i'd add as well as mike's long-term perspective versus 20 years ago which is absolutely right which today there's other options to hopefully make millions in future careers if you want to go into tech and tech might have more where perhaps you can understand a bit of a gripe last year all of these investor banks, not just goldman sachs, had record years bonus pools didn't go up by the same multiples you can also understand the bank's perspective. do they want to pay huge amounts where banks this time benefited from government support and fed support more broadly so there's an understandable trade off in the short-term from both sides of the bargain. you can understand if it is record year for your department and you are working crazy hours

you would expect bit more of a boost. but final point, if you don't like it you can quit it's a really good debate as it has been throughout the day on cnbc do check out the full write up cnbc.com up next on the show, tax season is officially upon us there's a new cyber scheme everyone should be on the look out for. details when "closing bell" comes right back

♪ a quick look at this afternoon's biggest earnings movers, two of them, fedex shares popping after being on both the top and bottom lines. the company raising its full year guidance sand up after hours 4.3% nike company earnings were hit by supply chain issues in north america port issues on the west coast. >> got back to flat and back down again, just couple percent after a great run. up next a new cyber campaign targeting taxpayer, details and what you need to do to protect yourself comg inup

loyees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this... your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee... yeah i should've just led with that... with at&t business... you can pick the best plan for each employee and only pay for the features they need.

sales are down from last quarter but we are hoping things will pick up by q3. yeah...uh... doug? sorry about that. umm... what...its...um... you alright? [sigh] a to

it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers plus some of the lowest options and futures contract prices around. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. a new cyber campaign is trying to target u.s. taxpayers. >> reporter: yeah, watch out for this one, cyber security firm,

cyber reason has spotted a new spear phishing campaign themed around your taxes designed to steal your personal i if information and maybe your tax refund hackers send fake e-mails that seem like they're from the irs or company about your taxes but when you open your e-mail may see something like this. these are images of tax documents you might want to read about but they're blurred out. when you click on it you are hooked and your computer gives the hackers access to your system they say as we get closer to tax day this criminal campaign is likely to escalate it could involve millions of e-mails. if tax day is delayed this year it gives hackers a lot more time to rake in the money back to you guys >> scary stuff, so don't click on it is the moral thank you. >> that's right don't click anything pay your taxes

>> don't click anything, got it, and pay your taxes on time. as we look ahead to tomorrow we have the perfect guest on "closing bell. cue the fed speak, thomas barkin, a voting member this year, couldn't think of a better time to talk to him about what we're seeing in the bond market post powell on a fed week, mike, where powell said they're not in a hurry to take away the punch of bowl, stop the stimulus, taper it or pair it back, yet, treasure yield continue to surge and how high the threshold is for the fed and continuing doing about it. >> and not only that, arguably would say, if they are going to remain max easy for a much longer period of time, all that does is give the long-term yield more room to go higher not like dovish meant you can't yield it just means we're going to let inflation run hot and the

let the economy get a head of steam and that will push yields higher it also is not that uncomfortable for the fed to have the stock market cool off with questions about financial stability. >> interesting to see financial action in asia and europe, big u.s. sell off in the afternoon see if it follows overnight. we're out of time on "closing bell." "fast money" starts now. i'm melissa lee. this is melissa lee. tonight's trader lineup -- guy, karen -- tonight on "fast money" we will tell you why a rush back to eck utahy eck - nike and fedex on the move on earnings, nike call is just kicking off we'll bring all the bi