yesterday. the contact lunch firm and their business is just growing 100% a year it's going to keep going it's the only solution out there. >> monster move. a quick name >> they did an offering. the stock will lift after they price it >> thanks, efb the exchange is now. thank you, scott don't ghost me here is what's ahead speculation, not diversification. that's what bank of america says about owning bitcoin we'll ask the man behind the call plus more common words from fed chair powell not enough to give confidence as rates continue to rise this creates buying opportunity of the question we're asking and in a move that will be met with controversy, instagram consideration a version of its

app for users under the age of 13 years old >> mr. good friend, i do have the markets for you. we're mixed in trading the general color scheme we're seeing here has been the theme throughout the course of the day. it's been under performance in a dow industrial financials to the downside leading that group lower. the s&p 500 just about a quarter of a percent to the up side. the nasdaq out performing the big names. at the low, the dow is down 357 points interest rates continue to be a focus. let's show you a chart 1.75 was the high for interest rates.

nvidia up about 1.3% netflix 1% gain. many of these growth oriented names that rely on an interest rate differentential that lends to upper valuations as interest rates pull back. it's a theme we'll watch i'll send thinks back over to you. >> fed chair trade jay powell out with an op-ed in the wall street journal today he's highlighting economic progress but saying there's a lot of work to be done he said the recovery is far from complete at the fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes his promise of further support not calming investors spirits as rates continue to wide let's bring in david, the chief investment officer

scott, good afternoon. i was going to say good morning. good afternoon to both of you. david, i'll start with you can jay powell control the situation and is it a problem he's effectively not saying he has any ambition to do so? >> on a daily basis the answer is no. on a intermediate term if the fed keeps rates at zero or near zero, they can provide a lot of liquidity to the market. we don't think the market should get overly concerned about the fed action there's other things to worry about but motte tnot the fed. >> the rotation we're seeing, you think is not fed related then >> well, the fed is doing what the fed is supposed to be doing. the rotation we're seeing, we think makes perfect sense. if you look at the last 14 v recessions value has out paced

growth some of those stocks are coming back to earth. we think that makes enormous sense. the s&p is at 22, 23 times earnings there's a lot of values that are 14 to 16 times earnings. money is starting to go to them. we think that's a much more sensible thing we don't think it's the fed's job to try to control the tstoc market their job is to try to allow for liquidity so none of the actions are hurting businesses >> what do you think of what david said >> i think today is a great microcosm toalmost pay attention to the broader equity fixed income policy. the fed made relatively modest regulatory announcement that's will probably have very minimal effect very little effect, if any outside the banking sector yet we have this massive instant

market reaction and breath less commenting on the matter in the morning. most of the drivers of long term interest rates aren't going to be what the fed does on a day-to-day basis it's going to be where inflation moves. what the fed is doing is allowing it to move higher in theory should those measures emerge allowing it to move higher than perhaps in prior cycles. i don't think this needs to, without, at least unhinged trading in the long end of the curve, without that, i don't think it needs negative feedback >> i got an equity question. i think there's two schools of thought. there's one school that says welcome to the roaring 20s and here we go there's another school that says, the roaring 20s just happened we oddly enough already lived

through it and come 2022, '23 when the stimulus rolls off that we'll be back in the soup all over again which school are you in? >> we're down the middle if you look at earnings growth over the last 70 years and the effect on stock markets there's a very low correlation it's about 1%, which is almost near zero. we think the most important thing that we want is a better economy, better corporate earnings and in terms of the stock market you want to look at stocks on a valuation basis. you did have a very strong stock market in 2020 when the economy was just horrible. we think that you'll have a very good economy this year we think the overall stock market probably is 8 to 10% over the next year. maybe two years. that can be happening during a improving economy and a lot of expa expansionary policy. >> 8 to 10% annually or never

the next two years >> annually. a lot of areas are higher than that we think that can continue to trickle up we do expect volatility this year we any the best advice is to not chase what has been working but rather go where things will work in the next 6 to 12 months we would be buying dips in technology sdp you in the same place that david at or no >> i'm pretty optimistic on economic growth. i think there's a lot of things going for us there's more forces pushing inflation higher at any point since the 1960s.

>> gentlemen, thank you. have great weekend >> if you're looking to buy consumer names, goldman sachs has a list of 13 stocks with potential. you can head to cnbc.com/pro to see some of those names. >> one of those value factors is something for dividend investors. it's handy the market is really out performed about 63% of the upside there health care has under performed.

it's only about 40%. still a 20% percentage point gap. one of the things factors that inverss are looking at for value perspective is dividend yields i'll show you the last ten years in terms of dividend yields health care sector the yellow line is the s&p 500 and the green line is the health care sector. as you can see for the better part of the last decade the yield on health care stocks have been below the overall market. check out just what's happening right here it's the first time in around 8 years where there's a significant yield premium for health care stocks versus the overall market that might be something some investors are looking at these are the stocks within megacap, bio technology and pharma that have the biggest yields.

the dividend yields differential is something to watch for. >> i love when you do stock analysis inside the subway station. i think it's a great look for you. it warms my heart to know you're spending time in the new york city subway there. >> yes, every one e once in a while. bank of america, the only reason to own bitcoin, speculation. why? we will ask that question straight ahead here is a look at the biggest losers this week in the nasdaq after what's been a very volatile couple of days. take a look at some of these you got tesla, zoom. so many others the exchange is back right after this

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welcome back to the exchange we have talked ourselves into

believing will the of things about bitkcoin and crypto currency big banks working on access for individual investors bank of america's global research is trying to debunk some of these ideas saying the only real reason to own bit coin is speculation chasing higher prices the question is, people may own it for speculative purposes but at what point does the train ride end, if you will if that's the case >> right at the end of the day, this is about supply and demand. we know the supply of bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins the supply growth rate is every

four years there's less and less bitcoin coming in. it's exactly what you said it's when does the demand for the crypto currency stop growing. ultimately that's the question of adoption. if adoption starts to falter, i think prices will come down pretty quickly in it grows a little more then we have a different problem which is the energy consumption of crypto which is one thing our report highlights is prices at the end of the day driver energy demand, drive co2 emissions and the question is do we really need to have such a ballooning instrument at the time when we're trying to essentially go do net zero emissions say in 30 years here >> okay. i think the question that we should be asking here is let's say it's a speculative instrument by the way i think it's almost impossible to say right now it isn't. if you believe it is some form of digital gold. it sounds like your view is that the current folks who have money in bitcoin won't actually hold

it when it gets to some kind of steady state that feelsa littl bit more like gold because you'll think to yourself, i don't have a ten x opportunity going on in the further. i'm asking you, at what price does that happen >> right i think it's impossible to tell. one thing i'd say about prices and bitcoin is that remember in 2017, 2018, we had a big run up in prices that was largely by retail investors flowing we know there's hedge funds. i think if the hedge funds smell there is downside risk they will try to get out and the other thing we have heard from bitcoin in our report is that it's driven by liquidity to the upside that's something unusual when there's more liquidity,

there's more liquidity and prices go up that's a very peculiar thing >> what do you think the down side risk is at $58,000, what's your lower end of this? >> the reason i can't do that is because we don't have price targets in our reports it takes a lot of electricity and computer chips we think the cost of production of that bit coin is right around 20,000 per coin. that sets in a way some reference to the actual cost that's one way to think about it

literally a year and a half ago you could mint the coins for 7, 8,000 there are a coin >> right of course, costs of production are veriable because they are pretty much like that with the amount of cash power coming into a network and they are linked to prices if you wanted to buy mining equipment you wounldn't be able to get your hands on it for another year there's a shortage of chips and the companies that produce this mining equipment don't have capacity to deliver that to you. >> i don't want to go too deep into the weeds but one of the things that's bullish about bitcoin rel tative to the climae issue is this idea of some of these off chain networks that are being developed like a light

speed and other things that are happening so effectively people can transact without being on this very energy reliance block chain, if you will does that not -- is that technology not a bullish sign for you? >> i think it is in terms of potential adoption and i saw your article in the new york times. great article. i think medium term, i get this question all the time. i think we'll go to a energy driven block chain and bitcoin network. i say, yeah, it's possible i'm an energy analyst by training it's going take many years prices rise too fast we don't let that technology go

advance kind of play through we're going to end up with a major environmental problem because of the speed of which this is happening. medium term there's solutions starting i ing to show and coup bridge this problem in five or ten years but not overnight. >> we're seeing hedge funds get involved some major banks are now allowing clients to get exposure to it. the chemical weapon i ask you is how you think about corporations, pension funds, enmentes and the like thinking about put this on balance sheet and whether you're hearing more of that or you think that's pausing out after some of the more famed names including e lo musk can tesla doing that. >> i've heard more noise about

it when i ask the question, why do you want to have bitcoin in your portfolio, are you going to pay for in terms of your input costs if you get bitcoin if your corporation. i'm not talking inverss. investors have a different set of parameters. corporations and the answer is always the same. i go, we'll have it in case it goes up so speculation which i mentioned and some people mentioned hacks. if we get hacked we may want to have some bitcoin to pay for the hack which i'm not sure is necessarily a legal reason to have it but speculation or maybe you're facing hack that's the corporations again in terps of why we own bitcoin. >> it's a longer debate.

i hope you can come on back. have a great weekend >> thank you when we come back after this rngs it's the story that has wall street buzzing. junior bankers at goldman sachs raising concerns about hours and conditions one firm wants to stay ahead of that scrutiny and trying to do it with peleton bike and apple watches. we'll debate the whole thing you don't want to miss that conversation don't forget you can watch us live any time. you can do it right now on the cnbc app when you buy this plant at walmart, they can buy more plants from metrolina greenhouses so abe and art can grow more plants. so they can hire vilma... and wendy... and me. so, more people can go to work. so, more days can start with kisses. when you buy this plant at walmart. ♪♪

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welcome back stocks are mixed the s&p has been hovering around breaking even and the nasdaq sitting near the highs of the day right now. meantime want to check out some sectors energy communication services your leaders right now financials and material, the biggest laggards right now here is some of the movers this hour take a look at shares of visa. they are lower on a report that doj is probing the company over a potential and come pepetitive practice take a look at shares of any key because they are down and disapd disappointing full year outlook. the ncaa tournament under way. check out some of the sports betsing stocks

drafts kings, penn national gaming and scientific games seeing nice games. i'm sure daive is quite happy about that >> the wall street journal reports some researchers believe they have found the link between deadly blood clots and astrazeneca's covid vaccine. two groups of scientists independently found the vaccine could cause a rare auto immune disorder leading to blood clots many the brain the white house says president biden will speak with russian leader vladimimir putin when the time is right biden said he thought putin was a killer former women have sued texan watson he's denied any wrong doing. neither he or his lawyer responded to the new suits

you're now up to date. back to you. coming up, instagram for kids that's for real. we'll talk about that. people are buying real clothes again. can you believe that the perks of being an associate at jeffreys. you might get a peleton if you work there more coming up in today's rapid fire you do not want to miss this i've been watsing all show for this it's friday and it's time to look ahead for what is in store for your money next week here is your friday fast forward. it's the last full week of the first quarter and it will be a busy one in washington jerome powell and janet yellen will testify before the house financial services committee on tuesday. the ceos of facebook, alphabet and twitter will appear at a house hearing on misinformation president joe biden will hold his first formal press

conference on thursday we'll get new and existing home sales for the month of february with states relaxing covid restriction, we'll get a check on how the consumer is fairing with personal spending and consumer sentiment traders will be watching game stop results trying to justify the huge thousands percent gain so far this year that's your friday fast forward. . even after paying for this. love you, sweetheart they guide me with achievable steps that give me confidence. this is my granddaughter...she's cute like her grandpa. voya doesn't just help me get to retirement... ...they're with me all the way through it. come on, grandpa! later. got grandpa things to do. aw, grandpas are the best! well planned. well invested. well protected. voya. be confident to and through retirement. if you wake up thinking about the market

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it's the moment you've been waiting for. we'll catch up on a few stories that should be in your radar john ford is here. julia and tim seymour. good afternoon, everybody. here we go facebook developing an instagram for children under 13.

facebook is up 9% since monday for its best week since january. it's now on pace for its best month since august i think everybody here is parent j julia, i'm going to start with you. i want to get off this stuff myself, let alone have my kids on it. >> i feel the same way, andrew here's the thing instagram confirmed they are doing this ta want to find a safe way to allow those kids who want to be on instagram to do it legal and safe they know there's a lot of people under the age of 13 that are using their service even though they shouldn't be they figure if they can do it in way that parents can feel good about it, maybe that's a growth opportunity and the key thing here, then they get access to that youngest demographic before

their harder to hold onto. >> i get it. my son has been on youtube, for better or worse. he created a video once and he started to get likes and comments some of the comments he didn't like the comments that much. >> no. >> do you think they will conduct something that feels good >> no. same boat. i've got a 12-year-old and 10-year-old. there's no good version of this of a platform where you are posting something and waiting for people to like it or respond to it right in your living on the edge waiting for the validation they are perhaps that needs to happen especially for kids that age is for their self-esteem and sense of value to be based in other things other than the opinions of

strangers. the earlier you introduce them to this, they should be built up in other ways. >> i'm with john and julia on this tim as an investment, this might be fabulous. by the way, my kids will be desperate to do this i'm not going be able to stop them and they'll get hooked even earlier. >> my parent hat with every one else here. there's a reason facebook trade a t a discount to its growth level and dominance. everything we know about the core businesses, including instagram is have the stock trading. a 20 multiple. it's a $280 stock. to me, facebook trades a t a discount for a reason and it's a lack of trust. not just on the level that we're

all talking about but i think from an inverstors perspective with how they value their core business i don't want to own it i think the valuation makes sense. >> we'll pivot to topic number two. talk about the subscriptions to streaming services globally it's surpassed a billion for the first time ever. how much of a rebound can we expect this year at some point if there's a rebound on that end, does that mean that some people will cancel some of their streaming services >> well, don't get ahead of yourself i think there will be a rebound but the question of how big depends on the vaccine roll out than anything. it will be so many movies released in theaters that were

held back from earlier whether it was the james bond movie delayed many times or all of these warner brothers movies that will be available at home but also on, in theaters there's going to be a ton of amazing content. this will be event content that gets people into theaters. going forward we will see an increase whether it goes back to prepandemic levels this year will be too early but i don't think that's going to cannibalize the subscriptions that people are getting a lot out of at home i think the barge will be higher to get people out of their houses and into theaters when they will be able to watch a lot of this content at home right now. >> i think we're going to go to streaming musical turns. there's only so many hours in the day. i think netflix, disney plus

will stick around. people will think about hulu opinion how locked in are they now is the time to position yourself so you're not that first chair to get pulled when the music stops. >> when do they turn off streams that you can turn off at will month by month i can see tim cook coming out. >> these things are roach motel. you get in and you can't get out. >> tim, which roach motel are you buying now >> i'm long disney

i think their business and the multiple rerating, if netflix is trading at 53 times, disney is 40 times you can make an argument that maybe at&t and time warner and the hbo max assets are things that still need to revalue i think the multiples are staying high i think this is the nature of where we are linear tv is dead. i would not be fading those winners from covid >> okay. let's go to topic number three now as more people getting vaccinated retailers are getting ready for a surge in demand. a new survey saying that more than half of u.s. consumers plan to buy apparel in the coming months making it top category of anticipating spending followed by foot ware an beauty products. what do you think? i haven't bought anything. i do know like signature sleeves are a big deal for women and people are talking about peacocking and they will peacock

with bright colors >> why do you know about signature sleeves? i don't know what nay are. >> we just had diane von fur furstenburg on yesterday that's what pops on the zoom this is what's going on in the fashion world. >> why just women peacocking come on. >> your peacocking all the time. >> julia what do you say here >> there's a new world where people want to look like they are wearing regular clothes and they also want to be comfortable. people will want to get dressed up again but high heels. i used to run around in three, four inch heels but now i will be thinking about the sneakers and flats i've been wearing. i wonder where the trends will

go in the shoe department. >> tim, are you wearing sneakers now? i kind of think you are. >> i'm wearing socks sorry. i hate to really give every one more probably information than they wanted. they're athletic socks it's an even worse look than you're imagining i think the beauty trends are the ones to play onto. i think ulta is the trade based upon the weakness. beauty continues to be great segment. >> i'm wearing lulelemon, abc men's pants. >> yes, you are. just telling you finally, on the same day that goldman sach, that survey went viral, junior bankers back then complaining about a crushing workload we should debate that too.

first of all, before we get into this gift giving situation, who is in the crowd of sympathy for this over work happening on wall street are you sympathetic or unsympathetic? >> i'm unsympathetic are these the fluttering things that come the tributes in the hunger games it's like if you survive then you get to use this thing. there's proenl a lot of smart people who can do a lot of great work who don't want to be hazed that way probably doesn't serve wall street that way. >> tim, sounds like you have a small violin out

what's going on? >> i was lucky if they bought me a pizza when i worked all night in my early analysis days. tells me the banker are making too much money now paying with a peleton or other perks may be more cost effective than cutting checks. i don't feel bad for bankers sorry. >> julia, how do you feel. which one would you take if you had the choice >> for the health of the bankers, maybe the peleton would be a good thing if they are sitting in the same position all day.

it's in the best interest of everybody if they with work out 90 hour weeks are not necessary. it's not going to help the banks in the long run if your abilities to go without sleep is how they figure out if they want to promote you or not. >> julia, tim, thank you we just did it when we come back, e-commerce has been booming over the past year and according to the founder it's here to stay. nate faust will join me for what that means it's women's history month we're spotlighting some of our cnbc contributors. check this out >> ann richards used the say in crowded room that ginger rogers did everything fred astaire did,

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welcome back to the exchange covid lockdown accelerated e-commerce adoption in a major way. all of these orders have created a figurative and yet literal mess the sheer buying has slowed delivery times and think of the card cardboard. start up called olive is tempting to offer a solution nate, you do have a solution explain what you're trying to do

here both with cardboard and with shipping times. >> absolutely. thank you for being me on the show probably about a year ago at the beginning of be pandemic i had this epiphany that it's pretty crazy we're this far into e-commerce and the status quo delivery is a cardboard box filled with air bubbles. what we're krcreating is a solution for the consumer an environment to eliminate the hassle, the waste and reduce the number of last mile stops of trucks at your homes that drop off the packages that are an i kwif lents part of the environmental impact >> before we lit the cardboard element, one of the things we love and for better or worse become accustomed to is the idea

of two day shipping if not give it to me in an hour shipping that's not great for the environment. do you think you'll be able to change people's habits or is that not in cards here >> what he with have discovered through extense ive consumer ve and i have been part of those launches over the last decade including taking walmart to the two day shipping and the next day shipping what we found is there's other elements of delivery experience that consumers would prefer over speed but you aren't being offered today. all of your returns we pick up directly off your doorstep there's no labels to print

it's a convenience play. >> for you, long term, what the goal is. what's so interesting about what happens in the united states is an amazon or walmart uses a u.p.s., fedex to ship everything you go to south korea where they are end to end they are doing what you're doing, right they have gotten rid of the box. ta mark has a different dynamic. i helped coupon launch their first e-commerce fulfillment center back in 2013. they have done incredible things since then it's a more densely populated country. eliminating boxes an doing of night shipping at the same time

is a much greater challenge in the u.s. i do think both consumers and environmental regulation around waste becomes a bigger part of the narrative. a solution that has less waste but also has benefits of the consumers is bound to take hold in the long run. >> nate, we very much appreciate you joining us i'm thrilled to see where this all goes and hope we continue this conversation in the future. >> likewise. thank you for having me. >> good luck you you bet. if ending the pandemic is enough to follow protocols, companies hope that cash is. we are talking about companys that are effectively bribing their employees. that's what's happening and that's what 'rwee going to talk that's what 'rwee going to talk about next

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four, five, turn, kick. we got chased by these wild coyotes! they were following her because she had beef jerky in her pocket. (laughing) (trumpet playing) someone behind me, come on. pick that up, pick that up, right there, right there. as long as you keep making the internet an amazing place to be, we'll keep bringing you a faster, more secure, and more amazing internet. xfinity. the future of awesome. welcome back to "the exchange." businesses are starting to incentivize employees and customers to get vaccinated. ylan >> for anyone on the fence of

getting the vaccine, maybe a little cash could change your mind companies like kroger, petco and bridgestone pay workers bonuses to roll up the sleeves and get the shot love's travel stops operates nearly 500 travel stops across the country, 30,000 employees and the company's offering $75 to those who get vaccinated. love's president shane warton said roughly 500 people signed up for the cash so far and expects the number to grow fast as more become eligible for the shots. >> we didn't want any employees to have any disincentive to get the vaccine because in some cases they may have to wait in line for a while and want to make sure we compensate them and have an incentive for them to do that. >> the company's taking it one step further with a vaccination clinic today for the 1,500 employees at the headquarters in oklahoma city.

>> i'm going to donate mine to a local charity on behalf of love's i can use that $75 to protect myself and then help other people with it down the road then i think all more the better. >> love's will hold another:ic for cash on tuesday but what it's doing is still the exception. not the rule a survey by the society for human resource management found that 88% of employers have no plans to offer incentives for getting the vaccine but among those who are hesitant about getting the shot nearly a quarter of them said that free money can make a difference. back to you. >> that's what i was going to ask you, which is what dollar amount do we think makes a difference if you're hesitant, what's -- where's the line is it 50 bucks 100 bucks? what is it >> this is a fascinating behavioral economics experiment. is this a reward for doing

something that some say is a right thing to do to end the pandemic or trying to change people's minds the incentive between 50 to $100 but a wrinkling is if the amount is too high companies can be seen as doing something that's coercive to employees and discriminating against those who don't get the vaccine. that could run afoul of the eeoc so companies are asking for clarity how to proceed in offering the incentives. >> but what happens if a company that's offered money to incentive people maybe they get to 60%, 70% and can't capture the 30%? do they offer more to the holdouts >> sort of like the wait list at an airline right? more money to wait to the end. unclear. i did ask the love's president if he plans on making this mandatory for any employees. they say it's a personal

decision and won't require it but trying to nudge people in what they feel is the right direction. >> love it appreciate the story some people call it incentive or a bribe and that's the debate. that does it for "the exchange." >> you're a parent you know how it works. >> "power lunch" is up next after this quick break have a great weekend so abe and art can grow more plants. so they can hire vilma... and wendy... and me. so, more people can go to work. so, more days can start with kisses. when you buy this plant at walmart. ♪♪

good afternoon welcome to "power lunch. for a chilly march friday afternoon, i'm tyler matheson. seema mody joins us in a moment. it's been a wild week on wall street stocks pairing early losses as the rise in treasury yields takes a breather the yields on the 10-year above 1.7% wild week for oil, as well the commodity bouncing back after tanking yesterday. we'll look at the crude reality. later, a fiery exchange between china and u.s. reps last night as tensions remain high. we'll tell you the companies that could get caught in the cross fire of chinese/u.s. relations. "power lunch" starts right now