>> yeah. energy, as i say, i think it's a low conviction sector. people were buying it because it seemed so beaten down and had picked up rebound momentum we'll see if there's anything more to extrap"late night" this week . >> we're out of time have a great weekend "fast money" starts right now. >> i'm scott in for melissa lee. this is "fast money. today's trader lineup -- tonight on fast, a bold call on the banks, dony -- tony mcguire on the qualify today plus ford driving higher on the back of a big upgrade. is this the stock to play in the ev space and betting on the march madness

could be a slam dunk for gambling we start with fwri fade. the dow and s&p in the red with the nasdaq holding gains. for the week all three major averages now finishing lower rates front and center ten year yield holding above pre-pandemic highs. what's the set up as we head into the final trading week of the quarter? steve, i turn to you, first, this is no big he secret it depends on where rates go. >> that's 100% right, scott. and thanks for being here. haven't seen you in so long. so ratds are definitely -- >> so rates are definitely leading by the head quite frankly and you're seeing the dynamic of people -- investors, trying to get used to buying something they're not familiar with what i mean by that, fang stocks everyone knows what they do.

industrial, energy names, there's been an growth over value for 15 years now value is coming on not even strong yet. we're talking about a couple months that value has outperformed growth. where it's underperformed growth for 15 years. as i said. so people have to start getting used to things they're not comfortable buying every time amazon sells off. pem think it's - pem think it's people think it's down, it must be a buy they have to get hurt before they understand, they have to get to know original sectors. >> yeah, nadine, look, part of the problem, frankly, from the big ifrnvestors i talk to it is parallelizing feeling you don't know the rates in ten days or ten months what you thought was a buy a week ago in terrifics of the high

week ago in term it's of the high-growth tech stocks, maybe aren't a buy tomorrow but are tomorrow. >> i think you're righ aren't a buy today but may be tomorrow. >> i think you're right. things like energy vasty under owned. one thing today oil volume at popped above 50 yesterday if it got to 60 we'd be wore yied. but it came back to 44 it tells me there's still path on energy, materials, irnld -- industrials, so you're looking to reenter those under owned names. >> yef, look, i mean, some of the cyclical stocks have run a lot. at some point you ask yourself are they running too far too fast is the conversation we need to have is looking at the cyclical

stock that's have run awfully far. >> i think it depends on the time you could make the case rates have gone up too far too fast but ultimately will have the value trade reissert itself. the valuation gap is still wide given what we seen this year. if you look at earnings for financial or energy they've outpaced technology as well. i think the fundamentals are gathering steam also for an economy that's going to grow 10% even half that, the ten-year at 172 kind of makes sense here i think it is easy to get hysterical about interest rates moving up to derail the stock market but history is not on your side relative to that point of view. last august ten year was at 50 basis points and now 172 the market is up 21% over that period of time you've seen the birfurcatation

of growth. but since january up 4.5% over that period of time. and to button up the perspective for viewers i sent in a chart. it looks at periods over a long period of time real interest rates increase more than 100 basis points versus declining rates for 9.5% return during those periods of rising interest rates. 5.5 or 5.4% return in falling interest rate periods. so everybody needs to take a breath and realize you might see daily chop because of interest rate moves but the path of least resistance for rates is higher and for stocks higher as well. >> okay. james. jeff may be right. and his chart tells a good story. over the longer period of time rates can go up and stock market can go up at the same time however we have a different story to tell because you have a large number of high-growth

stocks with multiple expansion i mean, to an unbelievable degree right? so they are going to have to make an adjustment, some of those stocks because of what rates are doing. that's just plain fact multiples are going to compress if interest rates continue to rise >> well, there certainly are a lot of unprecedented factors leading to our decision-making as steve said at the top, money's trying to find a home now that tech is no longer the story. i take the russell 2000 in small caps, 40% up since the vaccine was announced. 15% up year-to-date. that's double the s&p or the dow. obviously the nasdaq is still negative even after relief today. the yield story was the ashitor for -- arbitor for risk coming in since the election was

announces. the yield story is the story -- people are looking for an excuse to -- not an excuse but looking for the risk the yield story is there value is a big category. from my perspective watching small caps they continue to get relarch and butres by buying and the rotation will continue people are in a bullish mindset and want money to be made somewhere, whether crypto, energy, infrastructure, it looks like the bullish sentiment will outperform even if yields come up. >> let's bring in our headline guest for the night. we've been talking about him and his call all day the financials the worst performing group in today's session. our next guest making a big call on that space today to dictator ate -- dictate a lot of the trade tony mcguire, good to see you.

>> i think you give me too much credit but thanks buddy. >> look, your call was much talked about which says down grade the financials they've run too far too fast, rates will top out. all of the financial stocks were down today rates down a little bit. explain your call. >> so scott, do you remember last may, i was on the show, not sure which one but may 26th we went on offense and thought the incredible monetary stimulus would get enough to get the economy going and we went on economic offense that was a quote/unquote banks and tanks call since that time the financials and industrials are the top two performing sectors in the s&p 500 so when you couple the gains especially in the last few months, with the rate of change and the rise of the ten-year note yield it's never gotten to the kind of level we're at

people would say of course it hasn't because it's as low as it gets we have exponentially more debt so discount that we've had such a sharp rise -- when it's been this sharp before, and pulled back -- sorry about that -- for a week, which it did, it's a signal that you will peak out in the relative performance for the financial. again, this is not a "oh, my god, the sky is falling" we're new where excess liquidity will fuel the global recovery this is a call over the next one week to three months you will get an under performance of financials, based on stabilization. >> only if rates are done going up, right? that is the wild card. in this whole call only works if rates stop going up from here >> well, the bulk of it is behind us. it can go up a little bit more

two instances you got over 50 in ten week rate of change and then peaked and pulled back, rates in one of the instances went even higher you would still peak out relative performance because everyone on the planet thinks rates are going to go higher and that's already to some degree discounted in the financials it's more of -- you know, the fundamentals aren't bad but it's so visible that it has showed up in the gains in the space. >> yeah, i want to bring in grasso, stiff, you dis steve, you disagree so let's get it on a bit what's the issue you have with his call today. >> i like that tony said it is a short-term c call i have no problem with that. markets change ebb and flow daily. but when you look back in 2007 slf topped at --

2019 30 2020 31 38 we've broken trend this is something. this is not our mother and father's stock market any longer this is a value play that's coming on strong it's not just about the yield curve. it's not just about the 2-10 spread that is at a five-year widest measure as we've seen this is something that we're going to see a boom of an economy that we have never seen before we're coming off of a pandemic the last one was 100 years ago so tony, when you look at the financials, i agree that you can see a little bit of a flattening of the financials but you would have to agree that the trend is still higher for value and financials are at the epicenter of value with yield moving higher. >> so steve, i've been saying since last summer time and i'm not changing, i cannot imagine a

situation i will change because of the excess liquidity fueling this recovery. we've never seen this level of liquidity so this is a multi-year call on economic recovery not a two quarter call that i made. there are periods in that just like any new bull market where you don't want to chase it because when you chase it at such a high level, with real data, this is not my opinion, it's what the data shows, with real data, the problem is, you tend to sell it inappropriately. so i would rather attack weakness than fear it and make a mistake on weakness. there's no question in my mind -- go ahead, sorry. >> no, you go ahead -- when you say there's no question in my mind, i apologize for stepping on your toes finish your thought. >> no question in my mind we're in a new bull market a new economic cycle last thing you want to do is get overly negative knowing that

the problem is becomes painful and people unfortunately sell it instead of buy it. >> i'm just not -- i don't know if i'm -- if people are ready to stop buying growth stocks, right. because that's where the action is that's where the action's been that's where you get the highest rate of growth and what still is going to be a reasonably low-interest rate environment. i hear you on your near-term tactical call but long term aren't traders going to dance with the growth stocks >> you would think that except financials and industrials are the top two performers since last may so yes by the way, for two months it was wrong. you had such a month and thrust in those growth stocks that you need a true anticipation of economic weakness. remember what really favors

those mega cap predictable growth 234names is when you hava fear of economic activity, that comes when you have a shut down of money availability. we have a record level of money availability here and we're in a new economic seekle where -- cycle where you want to buy weakness into the recovery theme because there's liquidity to support growth you can't support growth without money. we have a never-before-seen level of money >> yeah. tony, good stuff appreciate it. enjoy the weekend. >> 30 years of doing this, you would have figured i would have muted my phone sorry about that have a great day, guys. >> you as well that's the brave new world of doing all this from our homes. all right. see you soon nadine, you are heard the argument, at least the conversation, what's your opinion here >> i mean, i think he's right, obviously on a one-day short-term we have daily risk ranges.

yesterday was pretty obvious financials were over bought. treasuries also over sold. you could cover your shorts on long duration treasuries but when you look ahead, right, i think that's what steve's point is, is that yield probably are rising financials are under-owned just like energy. and if you look today financials are at implied volatility premium, people are paying a lot for protection on financial names and therefore they have additional room to run. if you see yields 1.9 or 2% on the ten-year you're going to have a nice return on the financials. i disagree with tony, i think there's room to run and i agree with steve but on a day-to-day trading perspective tony was right today. >> good stuff. we'll take a quick break kamala harris shares of ford getting a big uptick and later two words, college basketball.

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welcome back to "fast money. shares of ford jumping after a spring awakening for the stock our call of the day. analytics im grading the stock to overweight. as automaker shifts aggressively into ev's. let's strayed it, james, all right, good call, maybe a little bit late i just looked at the chart on cnbc app from bottom left to upper right, the thing's had a huge move now we're going to buy it with all this aggressiveness or what? >> you know, you got to love ford, it's one of those names that will never go away. you put boeing in that category, general electric, general motors in that category this stong will always come back from trouble and breaking out of pre-pandemic levels is the premium is a signed to the stock due to ev opportunity and ford is smart and going to take advantage of this market ev market is new they're a player in the space. and i think the upgrade to $19

is a sign of the encouragement that management has led with their partnerships and volkswagen in europe ford is going to be an exceptional player in this space because they're never going to go away. there's not a hint of risk around them like in another name what i like about ford is is still relatively inexpensive compared to other ev players obviously the volume in february and march obviously people knew this was coming. the war you've seen from left to right, triple value in the stock. investors like that and i think there will when he a piling in effect with this upgrade. >> jeff, we going to 16? like the analysts say? is that where ford is going? >> i think it probably is. i understand it's hard to buy after such a big move but trading at ten times ford the valuation is somewhat reasonable i think about auto generally in the macro set up and the consumer -- $2 trillion after the stimulus

and xs saving verse this time last year is a massive tailwind to sectors like auto i think you could have upside. you will see massive growth in ev you are seeing sticker price more comparable to gas-powered cars i think there's a big move here. the big focus son ev but also focussing on europe is interesting. talking about driving towards that 6% margin call that they have in europe switching that product to suv higher margins drives profitable and ford trades at a premium and you can take that and the stock goes higher. >> not like gm has been a slouch by any stretch short looks similar. your point well-taken. coming up march madness, hitting the betting market in a big way. there's some stocks making big moves it is gambling on

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♪♪ ♪ playing fast scat ball ♪ ♪ with the basketball ♪ ♪ welcome back to "fast money. you can hear the music, can only mean one thing, march madness officially under way, so are the gamblers, 47 million americans expected to bet on this year's tourney according to the american gaming association. an absolute slam dunk for the sports betting stocks, names in penn national gaming, draftkings have been on a tear over the past year. which of these names is a lay up

for your portfolio grasso, they are the two most obvious names, the question is, is too obvious >> yeah, and kudos to the general on this, jeff's been all over draftkings for quite some type that's the brand name, the name recognition you get. i do like penn gaming a little bit more, more of a traditional gaming play. i will go outside the two you game me, i think mgm, under normalized earnings, $2.2 billion coming out of vegas. that's one you can throw in that game as well. >> so jeff, right, so if you've been all over draftkings leading into this, now what? >> i think you still own it here i think there's still a massive tailwind you had over 7 million people bet on the super bowl, just one game, so i think the pie will continue to grow. i will go outside of the box

i thought steve might mention bft and pay safe if you are looking to play the infrastructure, company who is processing payments online, this is a real opportunity here i was reading a survey today that shocked me. people choosing which sports book to buy 37% said quick and easies pay outs were important any company that facilitates this has a tailwind. >> nadine, you have an under the radar play for us? >> goldman initiated on a name we held for many months here, evolution gaming people can check it out. it has roac of over 65% and cash conversion of 85%. so free cash flow margins of 60%. great name it partners with draftkings. >> okay. >> love a name like that a little bit less held >> give me a final trade if you would quickly, please. >> sure, bp. an intersection of energy and under valued europe.

they have similar foot frint as u.s. names and 15% under valued. >> all right thank you for that, james, quick. x education etf. edut we seen covid upset many areas of life, online education has a lot of upside. >> jeff? >> parnlt -- palantir. i think goes higher. >> chewy straight up from here. >> thanks, everybody, does it n'go"fast money. dot anywhere. options action next. this is my granddaughter...she's cute like her grandpa. doesn't just help me get to retirement... ...they're with me all the way through it. voya. be confident to and through retirement.

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happy friday, options action fans, i'm scott wapner in for melissa lee. we got a big show, here's what's on deck. >> will ups pick up where fedex left off pass the packing tape because professor co is ready to deliver for you. then, playing to win tony zang is laying out all his cards in the casino stock. and a look back and look ahead carter powers through the next leg of the energ