upside keep an eye on this name >> you have been so great finishing on time. nicely done. thanks for having me on the halftime with you guys scott will be back tomorrow. i'll see you tonight at 5:00 for "fast money. "the exchange" starts now. thanks very much here is what's ahead on the exchange the archegos trauma could become one of the largest margin calls of liquidation of all time there seems to be no real systemic impact. we'll look at why. buy back binge after a huge slow down in 2020, companies are making their way back to the market in basic way. could it lead to another leg higher in the overall stock market is the hot spac market starting to cool off a bit. if so, what should investors in space be worried about let's begin with the markets at this hour. we are seeing a down day across

the board. 39.52 the last trade interest rate a focus. we're at 14-month highs. currently about 1.724% that's off the highs of the session so far you can see the sharp move higher over the course of the year to date period. a big move in interest rates that's having rever bragss across the market. a couple of places we're we're seeing things play out is the rise in bank stocks. they have been beaten up a little bit up 3%. wells fargo up 2%. bank of america up 2%. regents financial and the etf all up op the day. we'll check out some of the u.s.

media companies at the heart of a lot of the hedge fund talk these days. there does not appear to be much market reaction to this. this was not the case back in 1998 when hedge fund long term capital collapsed forcing bail out by fed and 14 financial institutions were involved what's the same and what's different now? jim was the general counsel for long term capital back in 1998 he's also the author of a current wall street journal best seller the new great depression jim joining us now thank you so much for being here with us. you had a very, very big and

very front row seat view to what happened at long term capital. take us through what exactly you see similarly and different about archegos versus long term today and then >> great to be with you. there's a lot of similarities. i don't want to be scary, there were definite mistakes made. they were identified at the siem they were never fixed. here we are in 2021 with the same scenario playing out again. we'll see if there's more contagion. it was over leveraged. not transparent. we did it all through de

derivatives. they blew through the 5% it's a bit of gray area. they were up to 10% to some of these positions. they never had to report it. in 1998, you could change the rules and require some reporting and transparency on that she was squashed by the boys club and nothing ever happened someone said know the other day, we ought to change the rules they said that 22 years ago. it never happened. >> jim, let me get this straight here we know that derivatives have been a huge focus of this. the o pas sty, the lack of transparency sometimes it says maybe a name like goldman sachs or morgan stanley. they are the ones who are owners

of record. i get all of that. why is it then that we are not seeing as much of the contagion type effect that we did see with long term capital. it will be inflation add justed a far less of an amount for long term capitals eventual bail out. >> that's right. it was about $4 billion. that's a lot of cash the book was 1.4 trillion. the value of the book is they were near the side of all these trades that was 1.4 trillion. here's the thing it started in july of 1997 when

thailand devalued the currency they broke the beg that started a capital flight and went to indonesia, korea and russia and back to ltcm. come forward to 2008, every one remembers september 15th, 2008. my point is in both cases it took over a year to come to a head it's way too soon to say it won't be contagion here because sometimes it can take a year >> let's lookt the perspective of what it was like with long

term capital is there any difference to the risk management profiles the idea that prime brokers are treating risk management a bit different. as the industry learned a lesson over the course of several of these meltdowns over the course of the past 20 some years? >> no. the industry never learns. the biggest difference is it was so big that the fed called on wus and said we're not bailing them out no one expected that we just slept for five days. got that done. the difference between archegos is it was no coordinated effort. it was sort of every firm for itself race for the exit. goldman gets out the door first. this was more of a chaotic online where ltcm was so big that it had to be controlled

online each bank knows what they have on with the counter party. they didn't know what the other banks have on. nobody knew what he had. only we did. that's another problem right there. none of those things have changed. >> all right thank you very much. always great to get your perspective. we'll have to have you back onto talk about the fall out, if there is we hope things are contained we have seen a huge stack boom so far this year but recently investor reaction has been more muted. this is maybe a temporary slowdown leslie joins me with the latest on the spac boom

>> really important question just asked there tomorrow spacs are set to launch another record month of issuance this year they are expected to surpass $100 billion in capital raised that may get pushed to next week either way it's iminnocent while the sellers of spac may be full steam ahead, the buyers are souring a bit. they are shell entities that raise cash from public markets to fund an unknown future acquisition. spacs that are searching for a merger have sold off.

any large discount to that level may imply investor concern that a viable deal will be reached or will not be reached. there are other cracks forming as well. never every spac traded down in its debut an the vast majority of them had to change their terms including downsizing the deal to get enough investors to buy in the question, as you mentioned earlier is whether this is just some short term indigestion or a longer shake out looming >> let's take a closer look at the state of spacs your next guest is seeing fatigue in the market. this is fantastic for the market in terms of special purpose acquisition companies.

do deals need to get done for the spacs to maintain the momentum for the overall market? >> sure. let's talk about what's happening in the overall market. i think you used the word fatigue, indigestion both good words. it's largely driven by the revised outlook of interest rates and a reflection of the growth stock run off that we saw last year, which was huge. that volatility is likely to continue for a while as the equity markets digest relative values of growth versus value. you also said spacs have seen record levels of ipos. we had as much issuance in the first two months than all of last year. the market has an incredible way of reinvigorating when a deal

gets done that the market likes. >> does it bother you as somebody involved in the special purpose acquisition companies as the board member of a large one right now. what drives your value what do you have to do then from a spac per speckive to maybe either tune those voices out ar give them something to nibble on as the you look for that big deal >> i'll speak broadly as a market investor and an observer on the market. similar in a private equity deal

and a buy fleneeds to take a ths and plbelieve there's fundamentals beyond that there's a significant amount of diligence that gets done whether it will business or legal or structure or accounting due diligence that's needed. the fundamentals will shine through. i think that's what the market is observing when you have a good deal, good deals trade well in marketplace. >> leslie, let me turn to you quickly as well. what exactly do you think is driving some of that slow down in momentum for the special purpose acquisition companies? >> i think jackie's point about this being a market that tilts toward value versus growth is a good one you're seeing a lot of the spacs merge with companies that are pre-revenue. they are giving financial projections five years down the

road where they look like a company that's going public a traditional way. that's the epitamy of about as much growth as you can get when you go from zero to maybe 500 million in five years. some deals that may have not d turned out as well as people hoped. s >> jackie, the ones that seem to get the biggest juice, the most movement, most volatility are tied to chatter.

does a spac really need to engage in something that is quote, unkwquote transformative whether it's electric vehicles or something else like that just to get the kind of buzz it needs to monetize the value. >> it's why you're seeing the company included in the spac market that structural advantage that was noted is where you have the opportunity in the transaction to present your vision for the future a line mower with the overall structure of a spac. it just makes it naturally

orient towards that growth company. you see every kind of industry represented in spacs there's also an interesting combination of strategy, of stage and of sector that's being represented in deals now as you have expert operators across the board. >> thank you very much for joining us we'll see you soon coming up, from walmart to general mills to ubs, companies are starting the buy back their stock again. is this the beginning of a buying binge for corporations and is it a bullish sign for the market in the second half of the year a new study shows most americans are not financially prepared for retirement. we'll look at the reasons why. the exchange is back right after this

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your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. welcome back stock buybacks have been part of the market ride for years with companies helping to support stock prices and boost their own earnings report at the same time the pandemic led many companies

to pull back their horns, suspend buy bacbacks and save c amid uncertainty how far did it decrease in 2020. they paid out just shy of 520 billion dollar fst their own stock. that's nearly a 29% decline fro the prooefrs year. in the second quarter they were around $88 billion spent by q3 it was 101 billion by the fourth quarter it was 130 billion. which companies are doing the most work. where is all the buying happening? it's technology. they spent about 56 billion dollars worth there. communication services, media companies. health care companies spent 15 billion and the financials $13

billion spent on buybacks. the biggest share repurchaser are some of the usual suspects we're talking about apple, alphabet, microsoft, oracle. all of those guys are buying back their own stock where do we go from here more companies are expected to return back to the buy back market as they look to have enough to cover their employee stock options and depending on cash flow, reduce the share counts giving a boost to earnings per share big banks which have received approval to resume buybacks are expected to be one of the bigger plays in the market and technology will continue to dominate as it has over the past few years. we can't talk buybacks without bringing up apple. apple is the undisputed king did you know that apple is responsible for 13 of the biggest quarterly buybacks and

each of the five biggest spends by any one company in quarter. thank you for being with us. the buyback story. it's been supportive of the markets. will it be again >> it sounds so and with technology with the companies that have so much cash, they don't know what to do with it. i don't think anybody could accuse microsoft for not being a wise user of its cash. they are pretty much writing a check for it not going and borrowing for it these are the companies that do give stock options as part of the benefits packages. it is a more honest way to

conduct buybacks you have the cash. you're doing it for a reason >> is it a signal that things are getting back to normal when companies feel comfortable enough to let those horns out again, so to speak and go back and buy back their own stock >> for sure. 2020 was very restricted in terms of buybacks. some of the sectors like the banks could not buyback their stock by mandate or by law and now they have announced 35 billion. the financials have announced $35 billion worth of buybacks coming forward it's a great way to return capital shareholders especially if you consider there's a tax di differential it's a good way to spend money. >> if that's the case, is there

a way that investors play it is there way that i vnvestors ty to capital on this resurgence? >> one of the sectors we like is financials and not because of the buy back but because it's so cheap. big banks are so cheap you have citicorp. trading under ten times earnings with the steepness of the yield curve you see now with value being back in play, with gdp growth for 2021 coming in some probably in the neighborhood of seven plus percent banks are a great way to play all of those things in one single place which is buying that sector. we like them for all those reasons. >> kim, i wonder, i mentioned before the idea that companies buy back stock it's way of engineering better earnings per share you reduce the share count and everybody's earnings go up in that way

you're an analyst by nature, by trade. do you have to look beyond that to see whether a company is healthy or the earnings growth is driven strictly by buybacks >> i think you do. it's getting larger by the company doing a buy back it's a company that's growing the cash flow and you have to do the math make sure this year count isn't smaller than last year look at the cash look at cash flow and see the company is performing better this year over last year >> kim, we just got a few moments left any favorite part offense the market right now for the next

six to nine months >> i do like technology, always. i am looking at materials and steel companies in particular just given the biden administration's focus on infrastructure and some spending that should be happening in america. >> iscyclical spending going t be tied to the next big theme in. >> we think so biden is committed to spending money -- >> all right i think we just lost him with the feed all right. >> we think it will be one of those sectors. >> all right perfect. thank you very much there for your thoughts. ernesto and kim, thank you very much we'll see you again soon coming up on the show, the good news the there's lots of

consumer demand for goods. the bad news there's lots of inventory shortages and higher costs could be around the corner we'll look at the retail reality. what experts say is the financial prime bonanza of 2021. that's ahead the exchange is back right after this

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welcome back markets right now, as you can see here, down about 99 points for the dow industrials. we were down about 182 points at the low of the day the s&p up by one third of 1%. 1, 1, 1,000. tech is down here are some of the movers this hour land, sea and air addition with the reopening trade back if green today. first off, hotel stocks, hyatt and marriott all higher. now to the cruise stocks norweigan, carnival and royal caribbean up to the air, the airline stocks jet blue and american up 4% as you can see there.

jet blue, united and delta in the green. now let's go over to rahel for a cnbc news up date. i know she's way over my shoulder just by our news desk >> so far, yet so close. here is your cnbc news update. the teenager who shot that widely scene video of george floyd's death is testifying at dekrek chauvin's trial she described what she saw and why she tried to keep her younger cousin away from the encounter. the court is not allowing her face to be shown >> yes i see man on the ground and i see a cop kneeling down on him >> was there anything about the scene you didn't want your cousin to see? >> yes >> what was that >> a man territerrified, scared, begging for his life

it was delayed and lost access to complete data. top doctor who work tond report says research on coronavirus continues. more than 100 ships have moved through the suez canal over 300 ves ssels are waiting this line. it will be about a week before they clear that traffic. >> at least things are moving. >> agreed. coming up, a flu report from pwc revealing the staggering number of americans with no, no retirement savings how to change the industry, coming up next shares of academy sport and outdoors doubling if price since its ipo in october soaring today on record sales figures. we'll speak with ceo on what is driving that consumer demand and do not miss cnbc race and opportunity in america special tomorrow night 8:00 p.m. eastern

time i will join our host melissa lee and john ford to look at the economic and social challenges facing the asian-american community against this backdrop of increasing violence today the exchange will be back after this gohealth has blossomed from an idea in a chicago apartment nearly 20 years ago to a listing on nasdaq today. we help seniors compare and shop for medicare options in their areas using licensed, trusted advisors and an online platform. gohealth has compounded at 52% a year for 20 years. we believe we're just beginning to realize the opportunity to improve access to healthcare for consumers. in peytonville, there's lots of ways to save on auto insurance. really? we believe we're just beginning to realize the opportunity yeah. very proud of that. with smartride® from nationwide, they can get discounts for safe driving. does she get one? mrs. carmichael? safest driver in peytonville. takes a lot of work and effort

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welcome back let's talk about some retirement realities. a new report from pwc says that only 36% of americans feel that their retirement planning is on track. what's worse, a quarter of adults have no retirement savings at all zero she's pwy team leader. thank you for join ugs today take us through what your findings were. how dire of a situation is it for americans thaz come towards retirement >> yeah. we done the studies and it is getting do be a crisis in this country. we have roughly 45 million americans that will retire in the next teen years and the median savings is $120,000 which

would equate to $1,000 a month over a 15 year period. with life expectancy being well beyond 15 years and riding costs of health care and other retirement needs, $1,000 a month isn't going to be sufficient sgr just how much a person, a family needs to have for retirement to make sure they don't out live their savings >> they need to embrace the tools available. there isn't a simple rule of thumb. the combination of how much work people intend to do in retirement because there's increasing population that wants to continue to work. how to decumulate their savings over that retirement period. what they will need when is also very different

what's important is people embrace the tools available for you to estimate your savings need over different period of your retirement and based on your expected spending and whether you want to fund your own retirement or those of your children and help them with college education and the like those are all factors that need to be considered >> are there certain commonalities for the biggest places people have the retirement risk aside from the fact they aren't saving enough are there certain specific areas, certain specific part of their financial plan that could use remedying and how do they do it >> yeah, it's a set it and forget it. the good news is people are monday toirly opting in to 401(k) plans when they have access to them but they are not evaluating their investment options over different periods of time and there are amazing

p products like target date funds that make the decision makings so much easier than 20 years ago when you were meant to allocate your assets yourselves fp low interest rate environment is creating additional head winds we see asset managers evaluating more correative products >> we know there are changing trends with regard to housing and living in america. it used to be the american dream to buy it and own it by the time your 30-year fixed rate is done. a lot more people want to rent rather than own. all of that into consideration how important is it to solidify your living situation physically and you approach retirement? will that be key as opposed to

saying i have money in the bank to spend in retirement as i go about my living? >> people do use real estate and home equity as an asset who retire they sell their large home, take the equity and use that as another vehicle to afford their long term living people that are not accumulating retirement through home equity need to be thinking about where is the source of funding going to come from if it's not through that home. again, it's putting it in the context of if you're going to need to use -- continue to pay rent through retirement, you do have the right sources of income to continue to make those payments as posed to the trad traditional source was sell a big house and use that to fund your more modest living style. >> before we let you go a few seconds left here, what's the biggest risk other than just not having enough money? >> yeah, i think the financial

education is the challenge and embracing tools. this is where the industry plays a big part and continue to lean in even more the next generations are much more virtually adept at training and tools and active in asset management through virtual means. using that technology today to support individual's needs and provide them the education but the tools to map out their retirement needs is a place where the asset management community can adapt, is adapting and can help serve a role to mitigate this crisis that we are heading towards if dwowe don't change today >> all right thank you very much. we appreciate it still ahead, it's a one-two punch for cyber crime victims. criminals are not just stealing identities to get ppp loans. thieves are using that information to create massive

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welcome back there's a new wrinkle in an old scam criminals defraudsing the government of millions of dol dollars. they are using stolen identifications to get pandemic relief money from the government and then using those same ids to open online investing accounts here is cnpc investigation steal and conceal. >> they're trying to money laundser, scam the money using my name to do that >> the crime began last sum. someone filed bogus paper work to get a $28,000 pandemic daiser loan from the small business administration from there, the fraudster opened

a account in chase bank and later opened another account with robinhoods. call it steal and conceal. authorities are seeing more criminals commit this double decker fraud they steal the money from the government programs and then they pump it into the investment accounts to hide the source of funds and maybe even plus up their gains. ultimately they hope to turn it into hard to trace cash. authorities say the victims are left with a huge headache. >> that's exactly what i'm trying to find out is what are they doing with these funds. what financial transactions are occurring under my name, under my social security number. it's been a pretty big ordeal. >> a law enforcement source four i vestment platforms are being targeted by criminals. the money is coming from the government's paycheck protection program and the economic injury disaster loan program. secret service assistant special agent in charge won't discuss

specific companies but tells cnbc more than $100 million has opinion funneled into investment accounts and the platforms are making it harder for law enforcement to trace funds the massive scale of the pandemic relief funding has created a frenzy of fraud. >> i would call it the financial crime bonanza act of 2021. it presents organized criminals and run of the mill criminals with a golden opportunity to rip off millions and millions of dollars, enrich themselves rather than the money going to the purposes that congress lays out. it's part of the federal anti-fraud task force. he explains a new breed of criminals is doing what comes naturally. a lot of people that are doing the frauds are younger, he tel

us platforms like robinhood are easier to push money in and out. the worry is what other frauds could be going on in his name. >> my good name means everything to me. i worked my whole life i worked 31 years for the same company. i've got boys. i've got family. i want their names to be in tact as well. >> we reached out to all four platforms. they say they have tough anti-fraud protocol and confirmed they have been working with law enforcement with what appears to be an industry wide problem. e-trade did not respond and chase, where a fraudster was able to open an account, the bank said it flagged the account and fraud and pblocked a transfr of funds to robinhood. >> what can the platforms do better with making sure this kind of thing doesn't happen in. >> law enforcement tells us it wants the platforms to do a

better job and know their customers by verifying the clients and monitoring the new accounts especially those receiving the small business association funds. keeping an eye on fraud alerts related to covid the idea is a communication back and forth between law enforcement and the platforms. they want the open dialogue because they say there's a lot of this going on when ever there's money moving fast and low in washington as there was with this relief funding, the goal was to push it out as fast as possible. law enforcement and policy makers know there's a real opportunity for fraud there. >> all right kyc, know your customer. thank you very much with the investigation. still ahead, consumers may find empty shelves one again when they go shopping. this time it's not the lysol wipe ors the toilet per atpath would be missing we'll explain what could be. that's next.

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welcome back to "the exchange." port congestion has made it difficult to keep up with all of the demand courtney reagan joins me with more on the story. good afternoon, courtney. >> hi,dom. good to see you. the national retail federation

forecast that retail sales about grow, consumer are ready to shop west coast port congestion started about a year ago in large part because of the demand for imported going, has really only gotten worse. consumers may find empty shelves when shopping with the stimulus checks in hand 90% of retailers are experiencing inventory shortages, according to a some study. some seasonal goods aren't arriving on time more than half of retailer report that congestion is adding at least three weeks of delays sure, contingency plans are in place, but those are costly, and could increase the prices consumers ultimately pay more than a third are shifting to east coast ports, just less than a third are using air freight. 27% are using domestic sourcing, or alternate west coast ports. deutsche bank analyst wrote

about it >> same-store sales at dollar tree were up about 5%, and inventory was down 5%. that's a 1,000 basis points or ten percentage appoints between the caden, and if you look at companies like walmart, target, tractor supply, it's equally incredible to see the spreads between inventory and sales. >> nike, williams sonoma and more are saying inventory couldn't satisfy demand due to port delays. they talked about that in earnings calls dom, often they don't talk much about the supply chain, it's a excrete they hold tight to, but in this case the secret is out >> we're going to talk about that right now, courtney, thank you. shares of academy sports and outside doors are surging after reporting record fourth quarter

results. to help com bad issues like the port problems for more let's bring in the ceo ken, thank you very much for joining us here on cnbc, let's go through what was the driving force behind that successful quarter? >> we have developed a strategy that was really focused on merchandising concentrating on what we are, sports and outdoors, and building our service level in those stores, and increasing our dot-com we also benefited, obviously from people as they took to more active lifestyle, being outdoors more, and all of those things

together really created a record quarter and a record year for us >> how difficult was it, ken, to ramp up that e-commerce effort, to transition those sales to the digital side of things, to kind of move with the pandemic trends, and then the supply chain issues as well how quickly was it to adapt to some of those issues, so you didn't have the bottleneck problems like courtney just mentioned? >> well, with regard to dot-com, we took probably longer than most to put in buy online and pick up at the store we really move that aggressively with regard to the supply chain, we've been working hard -- we've had issues with inventory last year we are now in what i call an acceptable level for inventory, but we are seeing the challenges that courtney talked about with

containers, the ports. one of the advantages that we have is we're in texas, and we use the galveston port that is not as congested as some of the other ports so while we're seeing some slowdown, it's -- it hasn't really hampered our business. >> how do you keep, ken, the momentum going we know the trajectory of the virus is hopefully getting more contained in the coming months how do you keep people coming back to your stores to spend that money on things like sports and outdoors >> well, one, there's a lot of new people to academy, and two, the things we sell we added over 5 million new shoppers to our stores in the last year. many of those people are new to us and new to the categories that we sell, so a lot of people picked up fishing, hiking, you

know, building a home gym. those people are coming back to fill in or to build onto their fishing gear that they've got. >> of course all right. ken hicks, thank you very much for that, and of course a big quarter for you guys ago well. we appreciate it. >> thank you. that's does it for "the exc exchange." next on "power lunch," the tick are started trading today. the analyst instrumental in developing the fund will join the team to discuss. keep it right here "power lunch" is coming up after this quick break how'd you come up with all these elaborate backstories? glad you asked. i got help from a pro. my financial professional even explained how nationwide solutions could help mr. paisley retire early. and spend more time with his pal, peyton? right? i'm glad you feel that way.

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welcome to "power lunch. i'm morgan brennan here is the 2:00 takeout arc investing, the space eff launching today. we're going to speak to the analyst. paypal goes full crypto. it will allow people to check out with cryptocurrency sits we'll have more on that.