tv The Exchange CNBC April 5, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
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>> degus, final trade. >> hanesbrands doing outstanding based off of online sales >> brynn >> lots of upside as we get vaccinated dow up 400 points. the exchange starts now. scott, thank you for that. we're going to talk a lot about the travel turn around this hour on the exchange. one company would benefit whether people take ship, plane, tr trains, automobiles. the ceo of bookings holdings will join us round three of checks hit american's bank accounts we'll look at where they will likely spend the money wall street falling in love with roblox
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bob takes the numbers apart for us hi, bob. >> there is a very powerful rally. we're at new highs on the s&p, on the transimpoports. you see the major averages here. dow and the s&p both at new highs. the tail wind, u.s. is the vak v -- vaccine leader that's the most important thing in the world. as for earnings, still going up. we'll start getting first quarter earnings numbers they have been rising. growth and value both are moving up today big cap tech names all growth stocks.
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new highs inn igoogle new highs in facebook. new highs in microsoft new highs in semiconductors like texas instruments. then you have value stocks many of them many the reopening category that are also hitting new highs today. many of the travel stocks, carnival, southwest and the airlines, many big old school industrials like the railroads hitting new highs. many old school international industrials hitting new highs as well many of the homebuilders hitting new high as well you have growth moving and value. that's a powerful rally. at the same time, it's a little worrisome in the middle of the day to see oil dlcollapse we were weak at the open one little thing to keep track
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of in an otherwise very upbeat market back to you. >> thank you very much despite the up tick in new covid cases across the country, wall street and main street are both off to the races today genuinely strong economic data from the march jobs report on friday and this morning's ism and pmi numbers are powering the market higher today. look at that the s&p over 4,000 almost 4100. the dow and the s&p record highs. nasdaq back the highest levels since february it's still about 3.5% off its all time high. bryce, welcome good to see you. one of numbers astounding is the average u.s. equity fund went up more than 8% in first quarter and yet more individual investors poured more money, by far, into bond funds which struggled. what are they thinking
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>> yeah. overall money is just flooding in from the sidelines. i think it's just an overall sentiment improving as vaccines get rolled out all this cash that was just sitting there as people were hunkering in is flooding back into investments i understand what you're saying about the bonds. some of the money is going into tips or shorter duration bond funds. we have a fund that is perfect for people that want to hunker down the first thing you want to do before you take a risk on this rebound, this vaccine trade is put some money in something safe after you put some money in bond then go for the sector funds they will be big you talked about travel. i think a way is a great etf to pick up on the inflation trend is something tied to transportation cost, shipping costs. that's b dry another great etf.
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you'll see money flow into these different sector funds as vaccinations accelerate. >> yet the flows into bond funds and assume a lot is going into tips a lot is going into shorter duration funds it's still something almost like three to one bond funds over stock funds. bond funds aren't really, lately, the way to make money. period >> it shows how starved people are for income yields are low y you're right the returns will not be great. as yields go up, the prices will wipe out your income >> you'll lose on the capital side of it you end up running in place as far as i can tell. talk to me a bit more about the etf that invests in the dry shipping sector of the world
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economy. why specifically that one? is it because everybody everywhere is trying to restock invenn tory and when they do tht they have to send it on ships. >> right they're all doing it at the same time this is historic we seen the whole real world tries to restock inventory at the same time. you're having major backlogs on our west coast ports there's a container shortage because you can't even get the ship back out of the port because it is sitting there in queque waiting to get it bdry will benefit tr that. i know it's gone up some but it will go up more. it's tracking the shipping costs. it's going to be tougher and tougher. it will be log jams and delays
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ever everywhere >> bdry is the ticker on that. that is in part, an inflation flay talk to me a little bit about where you see in inflation settling and is it worry isome o you? >> it is we use tips to a certain degree but tips don't fully capture what you want as return. they are still bonds the bond price will go down. why not just invest where the inflation is you're seeing commodity prices spike. raw materials, things like that. shipping costs are one of the key things this may never happen again in our lifetime >> you know, let's hope it
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dints. let's hope bryce, thanks very much. we appreciate it we're starting to get the early data on the third round of stimulus checks and the boost to consumer spending credit and debit card spending jumped 82% compared with a year ago for the seven-day period ended march 27th peak spending occurred six days after the checks were deposited. where is the money being spent joining me is head of u.s. economics at bank of america global research. michelle, welcome. where is the money going >> it's going throughout the economy. it's a lot of money pumping in and consumers are spreading quite broadly. when you dig into the detail and try to understand the sector, a few stand out. furniture spending is really strong on the back of this latest round of stimulus that reflects what we have seen in the housing market. more movement. people looking to upgrade their
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homes. we also some of pretty impressive spending in clothing and department stores which could suggest that people are starting to think about going back out and refreshing their wardrobe when they re-enter the economy. also restaurants, especially relative to the last time of stimulus restaurants did receive additional funds >> are we talking now about the stimulus checks that have just gone in and out the last ten days or so or are we talk about the ones that went out at the end of the year or both or what? >> we're primarily focused in this analysis on the latest round of stimulus. stimulus 3.0 >> got it. >> that's because even though the stimulus as is distributed has the first few days after receipt but it multiplies and will continue to score the economy. what we're trying to understand is the consumer reaction upon receiving the additional funds,
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how much do they spend and where do they spend and how long does that last in terms of creating that big kind of incremental boost to recipients. >> it's interesting that clothing seems to be coming back maybe that's as people go back into offices maybe it's they are going out and socializing more but you point out that the stimulus recipients are spending double what the non-recipients are on clothing >> that's right. just in the period following the distribution of stimulus payments there was a big jolt to spending on clothing and department stores among stimulus rec recipients it shows the incremental dollars were supporting that type of spend. >> was a lot of talk, a lot of talk, this new stimulus money was going to go into the market. it was going to go either into savings, let's separate that from the market. i'm thinking largely of cash
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equivalents or savings accounts which pay you nothing but there's a lot of people who said a lot of this money will go into crypto and that stuff. you see any of that? >> we're not tracking that we're only tracking the change and consumer spending. the reality is that this stimulus, especially relative to the last one in january, even relative to the first one, it was larger dollar amount her household. even if there is this distribution of payment, some is on spending, some is on savings, maybe some is for investments. it lifts all these kats goirs. when you try to think about the impact of these dollars on the economy, it's not as simple as to say people are going to use the money for x and not fory it's quite contrary. they're using it for everything. certainly our data shows a big boost to spending. >> let me dive little deeper there, if i might. you're tracking spending, right,
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as measured by credit card activity and things like that, correct? >> we're tracking spending from aggregated total card spending >> you've got spending and you've got spending up whatever it was, 87% -- 82% compared to a year ago not surprising because at that point everybody had gone into their dens below ground. if you have spending up that much and it's coming back in travel it's coming back in clothing, it's coming back in all other areas. can you infer from that, if the checks were $1400 or whatever they were, that relatively little of it is going into i vestment or savings or can you make any conclusions >> a few things to remember with that this time last year the economy was shutting down. much more prudent to look at a two-change when trying to
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understand the underlying trend. even trying to cam ompare it toe prior two. you have to be careful on this trying to understand how the funds are being distributed into the economy. the one thing we can say very clearly is that a good portion were used on consumer spending and we think that's being reflected not only in aggregated data but a variety of economic indicators look at measures of mobility look at consumer confidence we got released from the conference the biggest increase on a month to month basis since april 2003 that correspondsed with the distribution of stimulus checks and this reopening i think when you take a step back and look at a range of measures, the consumer is doing exceptionally well right now >> to your point, we just showed that two year change in spending alongside the one year and the two-year change is really significant. it's above 20% in many of the
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metro areas that your research indicated. great to have you with us. appreciate it. >> thank you >> bank of america global research travel is coming back across the u.s. as the vaccine roll out continues. we will speak with the ceo of booking holdings about the trend, the future and taking on air bnb. apple ceo, tim cook, weighs in on tech regulation as the call from capitol hill grows the exchange returns after this.
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welcome back for monday everybody, as travel restrictions ease in the u.s. and around the globe, online bookers are backing it out for travelers business we have that part of the story >> with more countries opening up travel to fully rack si nated american, the biggest online travel oerl operator is trying to incentivize customers the cdc updates travel guidance no longer requiring americans to test and quarantine. what this means for the comeback in travel, i'm joined by ceo of booking holdings welcome back welcome to the exchange. how significant is this news from the cdc lifting testing and
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self-quarantine requirements for fully vaccinated americans >> we're going off post-date credit cdc if you're vaccinated it's safer to travel. it's a really great timing for everybody. we are really looking forward to people starting to think about the summer holiday >> can you kwaquantify that demd which part of the travel story is seeing the most demand right now? >> well, we're seeing in all areas. you see the analysis by the other ceos our partner friends and the airlines end, the hotels talking about increased demand everywhere which is really, really great we're seeing prices starting to go up too which is the function of demand which is why i continue to advocate, go out, look at what you want, go get it now.
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it's no cost to doing it get that option out there and get the $50 credit now >> as much as the instilling hope, this new survey found that americans still plan to stick with a familiar and prefer to travel closer to home for the foreseeable future why do you think that is and should we expect fewer americans to travel abroad there summer. >> we know people are not going to be able to travel abroad as well as things are going here in the states four million vaccinations fantastic. other parts of the world not as good we know there are probablies in europe now governments don't want people coming to visit if there's concerns it would make the situation worse. it's not a lhuge amount of international travel there's the feeling of uncertainty. i think that will stand out.
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>> proof of covid testing requirements or vaccination requirements that are put in place by properties or by airlines or throughout the travel process the cdc recommendations all in favor overthat we recognize that using some of these technological solutions. for example, the idea of covid and other people may not be allowed to go. >> do you favor that excuse me, do you favor the idea of a covid type passport that's
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been talked about and some people really strenuously object to that? >> i'm not sure why people so object to it in terms of making it safer for people to travel, instead of saying nobody gets to travel but let some the industry has been so devastated travel has been so hurt by this tragic crisis. we need every single thing to get it going i drive around for a license because i'm a safe driver. what's wrong with the thing that provers i'm a safe traveler. >> the governor of florida says this vaccine passport is something he says he will not implement in his state last week i was reporting on how expedia, one of your biggest competitors is looking to poach super host from air bnb, getting more of the high quality homes
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on their site. curious when it comes to vacation rentals, what specific steps you're taking at booking to really amp up the level and the quality of inventory on your side >> yeah, there's no doubt that everybody wants to get those great hosts who have a great offering to a traveler we want to get them. we have a lot. there's no doubt there's a lot of competition there are lots of ways to insentivize and make sure they are on our site. i think one of the biggest issues is making sure everybody is aware that we offer some fantastic short term rentals homes on baeach, cabins in mountain it's instantly bookable. we think our product is a lot better >> we're starting to see they want that option
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it's not justification rental or hotel. they want to experience both thank you for joining us coming up, companies are speaking out against georgia's new voting law how far are they willing to go what about those that are staying silent we will dig into that debate and what other states may be in corporate america's cross hairs over similar legislation shares of ford and gm moving higher after a bullish call from wells fargo. the analysts will tell us why a 40% rally this year for the stocks just isn't enough as we head to break, take a look at crude sinking more than 5% right now. falling below $50 a barrel this is covid cases in some areas of the world are lowering expectations for a quick turn around in oil consumption. we'll be right back. all right that's a fifth-floor problem... ok.
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real estate in the red energy in the red as well. the other laggards are actually higher as well movers this hour, alternative energy stocks lower once again with the end phase seeing the biggest losses down about 7% as you see there. worst performer in the s&p 500 tesla is exception homoving higher the company coming across with 185,000 vehicles more than 10,000 above the consensus forecast the re-opening trade doing well once again today airline stocks getting a boost take a look at united, delta, american, southwest. they are all up 3% or thereabouts in some cases. > more cruise lines getting a bump norweigan leading the s&p 500. let's check in with courtney >> good to see you here is your news update at this hour in florida, county officials say there's a possible second leak
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at a compromised waste water reservoir that has already forced the evacuation of hundreds of residents. get the latest on this developing story on the news with shepard smith tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time myanmar's largest city protesters dressed in plablack marched to remember those killed in military coup 550 people have lost their lives. u.s. airline travel comes to continue back. the tsa counted more than a million and a half people going through its check points yesterday on easter sunday that's the third day in the last four that air travel has been above that level harvey weinstein is appealing his sex crime conviction just over a year ago he was found guilty of rape and sentenced to 23 years in prison. his lawyer says the former movie mogul did not receive fair trial. that's our cnbc news update for
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this hour. back over to you thank you very much. coming up, wall street loves roblox personal facebook data ends up on the dark web and a battle of the beast, godzilla versus king k kong brings you back into theaters that's after this. we see temperature control software giving everyone a shot at vital vaccines. at emerson, our software is shepherding medicines through every step of the cold chain, helping track conditions to keep each dose safe and effective. emerson. consider it solved.
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welcome back let's catch up on a few stories that should be on your radar it's time for rapid fire here is josh lipton, mike. welcome team first topic is shares of roblox. they higher. they can pass along development cost shares up 5% today and more than 50% since its ipo last month can roblox keep rolling? >> the kind of company that analysts will find multiple
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reasons to endorse in terms of the huge size of the market that they are going after the fact it's a very flexible, expandible platform and the market is willing to pay up even before they earn profits you see the analyst comparing it to things like door dash and air bnb. you can throw bumble in there in terms of recent ipos price target, all around $80 the highest price is a bit above 79 really not a lot of risk without really valuation support in saying maybe it can go trade back up to where it just traded not too long ago >> what is this company's mote what is to prohibit or prevent or stall competitors from coming in and effectively doing what they are doing >> yes, if you have a kid or know a kid, you've heard of roblox it's that popular. very interesting business model. users create the games with the tools the company provide and
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have revenue split tremendous growth during the pandemic a couple of questions you would have before piling in here one is can they successfully extend their reach to older demographics what attracts a 12-year-old be different than what attracts an 18-year-old. what is the growth rate look like for a company like this after the pandemic ends and the kids go back to school that's still an open question. >> product and its uptake and we know that there's an appetite for user created content you've got you tube, facebook, tik tok that proves that this is that kind of model, fundamentally, isn't it? >> well, what i would say is not only is it that kind of model but eight million developers creating games within this platform that has 36 million users. that ratio of people creating content to the people consuming
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the content is a high ratio. very different than compared to the number of people who are creating that really popular content on tik tok i think part of the game is the creation of the game i'm with josh. my kids are part of the target demo for roblox. they discovered because of the pandemic one the kids are back at basketball practice, parents may start to crack down on all that screen time. >> i think that's probably fair point. final thought before we tie it up here. won't most of the games stink? most of them just be not particularly compelling? how will you find the good ones? >> you have millions and millions of experiences on there. by experiences they mean games, concerts it's way to get to the demographics you just need the few that are going to attract a ton of eyeballs and some of those developers have clearly had big hits and by the way, that has translated for system of those
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developers into big money. we mean tens of thousands offof dollars a month. >> let's go do facebook. facebook says this was old data hacked nearly two years ago. it's another black eye for the company at a time when social media is facing growing scrutiny for washington shares of facebook hitting a record high. facebook would like us to say this is old data but it's once again an indication of the privacy problems that facebook seems to continue to be bedevilled by. >> this is old data, part of an old hack back in 2019. the issue is it reveals the long tail of these hacks. this data was available probably for sale in the dark and dutsty
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c dusty corners of the web now the data has been around so long it's being posted more openly online. the question is do consumers care, do advertisers care. we're not seeing an impact so far prooifr si issues have not impacted engagement on facebook it's not a good look and facebook is drawing more scrutiny but they have made changes since then so they are trying to protect themselves against the regulatory crackdown when it comes to privacy >> josh, i see you nodding in agreement that it doesn't seem to are dented the business, the user base or the stock >> does it impact user engagement and advertisers you might describe them as a black eye. they don't seem to have the
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impact sort of understands this is risk of using the free service. it's a cost. gene's job is to tell people where to put their money he still likes facebook over the past 12 months he says it is maua must by for advertisers. >> quick tie off comment is facebook a fortress stock >> it's behaving that way. it's basically had to absorb a lot of these attacks whether rhetorical or the privacy challenges also being hacked and maybe being vulnerable in information security is not great but maybe it's better than people saying the privacy concerns come from the actual business practices of facebook that used to be the concern. they were selling people's
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profiles, at least in obscured way. >> we'll still with big tech and privacy. bold call from tim cook. he's calling for more regulation of the industry. cook tells cnbc distributor and rico editor on her sway podcast quote, i think privacy is one of the top issues of the 21st century and i think we're in a crisis years ago i thought companies would regulate themselves and sort of get better i no longer believe that, and i'm not generally somebody keen on regulation but i think that regulation is required there comes as lawmakers debate change let me ask you this, julia, is tim cook being a little self-serving here in that apple may have an edge on privacy and section 230 really doesn't
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affect apple, per se, because they're not publishing content in the way that we think about youtube or facebook or instagram or twitter as a publisher of content. >>. >> that's right. apple separately as made privacy which is a separate regulatory issue really core to its identity i have to remind you that in addition to this regulatory scrutiny, apple is weeks away, tim cook told, weeks away from rolling out its new operating system change. that will put privacy front and center the conflict is apple will be asking consumers if they wnant o be tracked giving them the option of opting out facebook has weighed in saying this isn't fair to small businesses they won't be able to target their ads as effectively if they aren't able to track consumers as they move around on their mobile devices
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i think the activity within the mobile devices, not physically i think it's an interesting requ question and we'll see where people come down are they going to opt out and take new option. >> josh, quick thaought from you as we get ready the move on. sdpl >> it's a core value steve jobs talked about this years ago. steve jobs said privacy to him means people know what they are saying for in plain i thenglish. it al comes down to business model. apple sales hardware, not advertising. you can think about data collection differently it can olyminimize that collectn >> here is manager we haven't talked about in a long, long time a box office boom for warner brothers the studios godzilla versus kong securing a pandemic best opening
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weekend. that's something we never thought we would be saying, including more than $32 million in ticket sales between friday and sunday just 55% of all movie theaters are open now they are operating at a limited capacity what does this mean for hollywood and when you throw in international box office on godzilla versus kong, it looks even better. >> tieyler, it looks better if u consider the fact that warner brothers made this film available for streaming for hbo max subscribers. this weekend was not just a test of consume derr demand for gettg back to theaters, it was a test of whether people would choose to stay at home and stream at home if they were paying for hbo. it's effectively free or whether they would opt to go out i think it bodes well for the business coming back and even co-existing with the streaming business >> mike, we note that amc is up
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15% today. they are obviously one of the big theater operators. clearly they have shut downs in areas but this does go well for the theater operators, i assume for the producer of content. >> it bodes well people were willing to write off this industry. amc has been successful at raising capitol in the form of debt that the amount of capital reflected now pretty much exceeds relative toi its peak earnings yes you with have this become the ben amphetamine of amc shareholders
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>> jewel, michael, josh, thanks very much. don't miss the chief executive of the production company behind the film on the exchange tomorrow. the legendary entertainment ceo will join us at 1:00 p.m. eastern time that's it for rapid fire still ahead, ev efforts at ford and gm catching street aes attention. why you may want to get bullish. that's coming up major league baseball pulling the all-star game from atlanta in response to georgia's new voting law those details. the 43 other states considering similar measures and corporate america's responses across the country. that's next. take a look at the markets right now. we're slightly off the highs but still seeing very nice gains russell 2000 looking a bit there but it's higher too. we'll be right back.
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voting law, scott join us with a look at who is speaking up, who is not and whether we can expect some real action hi, scott. >> the eloquence is springing forts about the sanctity of the right to vote and equal access to the polls jpmorgan chase, voting is fundamental to future of our democracy. employees span the united states and the state capital debate election laws, we believe voting must be accessible and equitiable twitter, we must oppose voter suppression and promote voting
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access and election tran transparency in texas, dallas based american airlines writes, voting is the hallmark of our democracy and the foundation of our great country. we value the democratic process and believe every eligible american should be allowed to exercise their right to vote that's no matter which party or political candidate they support. a lot less clear is what companies are prepared to do about any of this. the georgia law is a done deal only major league baseball has pulled its business so far what's more, a new report but public citizen says many of the legislate chirs pushing these laws are big recipients of corporate donations from the likes of at&t which has spoken out against the voting restrictions and from cnbc parent company comcast which has yet to respond to our request for a comment. texas governor greg abbott has told the texas rangers, he's no longer interested in throwing out the first pitch at their
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home opener today. he is protesting the actions of major league baseball. >> scott, i guess my cop question here is, i understand that a company like coca-cola or delta airlines has now come out and forcefully condemned the georgia voting law why didn't they do it before why didn't they do it before the law was passed and signed in the middle of the debate >> we don't know we may never know. now some companies are starting to talk as states like texas and 42 other states consider these things as i said, they are just talking. the question will be whether they are willing to pull business whether they are willing to stay, i'm not going to locate a new plant in georgia or texas or arizona because of this voting law. we haven't seen that yet we have seen it in other issues. the north carolina bathroom bill
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a few years ago and the religious freedom act in indiana where they had to change the laws to appease corporate america. we don't know yet how they will react and what substantively going to happen with this beyond the words. >> as you point out, you have companies in texas, for example, like dell computer, like american airlines, that have vast employee numbers there and if those companies got to a point to say we're moving out of the state because of it it would dent tax revenue great as always to see you fantastic. ford has a new focus and ge is cruising to the lead in autonomous vehicles. heading to break, it is financial literacy month and cnbc committed to sharing messages about the importance of financial education. here's former sba administrator
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welcome back while tesla get it is headlines wells fargo say it's time to pay attention to the legacy leaders. gm up 44%. ford 42% tesla flat my next guest said the road is clear for even more upside for those two. collin langen is an analyst at wells fargo. thank you for joining us today what's the advantages that ford and gm respectively have in the marketplace right now that makes you confident that their stocks
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can move up? >> two slightly different stories. for gm they have been a pretty strong leader talking about electric vehicles, the hummer is an exciting ev launch. cruz is a leader in autonomous so they're just sort of hitting it on all strides. ford is more of a restructuring story. the turn around took an awful long time and i think they have the right leadership in place to get it off the ground. the mustang has great reviews, really something that's desirable for customers to come out and want to buy. it is not a compliance vehicle the way some others are. >> so the upside on gm which is trading in the low 60s is that right? >> yep. >> the price target there is
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what >> $67. >> what would be the disaster scenario on gm if it doesn't work out. >> i believe my downside's in the 40s. that would be they lose some credit for the valuation of cruz which is right now doing quite well and that would be multiple compressions losing faith in the story. but they did a consistent job for many years they did a 9% margin in north america in the covid crisis so pretty unbelievable for an auto company. >> ford as you say, future of mobility is the gm story in ford's case it's having the right product lineup, trucks, suvs and as you say a mustang that's an exciting car they're basically out of the sedan business. >> yeah. that's a huge factor ford is tar getting a 10% margin
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in north america they were 30% cars in 2015 which are low or maybe no profit vehicles today they'll be probably two years 4%, just the old-school mustang left and replace all of those with suvs and pickups like the ranger and bronco sport. >> got to leave it there thank you very much for your time today appreciate it. up next on "power lunch," with new guidance for the cruise industry we speak with the ceo of virgin voyages about the future and the next steps he hopes the cdc will take.
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he is back welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler matheson seema mody joins us for the hour in a moment. stocks are soaring all-time high just the dow, s&p records after a blowout jobs report last week. and strong economic data today pointing to a rebrown in america's economy. plus treasury secretary yellen calling for a global minimum tax on all corporati
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