>> i think the motivation was the georgia gop lost a couple of close races. our guest seemed to down play as far as i could tell and think it was an overreaction on the part of businesses to be so critical of the new georgia law interesting point of view. an anyhow, we leave it there. much more to say, thanks for watching "power lunch. frank thank you for joining us. >> great to be with you and the other tyler. >> can't have enough tylers. "closing bell" starts right now. >> gents thanks. welcome to "closing bell." i'm wilfred frost along with sara eisen stocks trading in a very tight range again today with the dow and s&p 500 still near record highs as we head into the final hour of trade. let's look at what's driving the action minutes show fed officials expect it will be some time before it starts tightening policy jp morgan's ceo jamie dimon out with his share holer letter

saying he is optimistic about the u.s. economy as it begins to reopen and vaccines get distributed. moran that letter coming up. and some of the reopening plays like cruises and restaurants are rallying in today's session. we have 59 minutes left of the session. sara, sort of mixed on the headline indexes as we send. >> s&p up about .1%. we have a great lineup of guests coming your way. the fed governor lael brainard will give us her outlook and how strong data could impact policy. plus the deputy treasury-second, we will break down the report on the taxes that would pay for the biden infrastructure plan. plus an interview with the carnival ceo arnold donald, a report out today saying bookings are accelerating first stories we are watching one hour left of trade

mike santoli is tracking market action what are you seeing in the swror afternoons >> lower volumes, lower volatility, really just hanging around here at the all-time highs. contending with a little bit of short-term overbought conditions but also supported of course by great expectations for this economic boom we all see in front of us. i have to keep pointing out, we are just sort of stretching this path that we have been on since especially october 30th. what you have seen here is we have had a pullback, got back to an all-time high, flatten out, all-time high, flatten out that's not unusual, stare step action also a doesive less speculative tone out there, very large stocks versus small stocks a change in tone small cap outperformance for most of the way from august up to recently. this is the extra large xlg, the largest stocks in the s&p 500 in the index a well as the micro cap index. that's a pretty vast spread

between these two size factors also small cap russell 2000 has done nothing in two months, consolidating digesting, that's the bullish vision of what's going on take look at the cboe equity put/call ratio it goes back three years we keep bumping along at these extreme low levels that means nobody is betting on low side or extreme hedging. curling up slight will he here, sometimes that can mean you are in for a pullback. these mini spikes were when we had the 4% pull pullbacks in recent months. these were the bottoms of those pul pullbacks. operating in a narrow range. these are the issues we have periodically everyone gets on board on the bullish side sometimes the market has to work through the sentiment head winds.

under the surface, communication services and info tech are the best performing sectors. strength in amazon, apple, microsoft, facebook, nvidia, google, the usual suspects does is this trade back? >> we think of them as the usual suspects because they were the clear leaders so long especially going into last summer but many of those stocks are well below their all-time highs and they also represent to some degree a defensive kind of characteristic in the market, meaning reliable growth, reliable earnings. i don't know about that trade being back in terms of being the leadership group but it's definitely participating and it is probably net positive that the market instead of just falling apart altogether when things get overbought money migrates into the more stable areas. it is allowing the index in this rotation to stay peroted >> tesla, though, down 275%. >> that's right. very conspicuous. jp morgan chief jamie dimon

releasing his annual shareholder letter today, 66 pages on everything from the recovery to america's standing in the world. wilfred, what are the big takeaways? >> behemot was sara's word, not mine, mr. by money, if you are watching diamond is expecting the economy to boom despite being skeptical of quantity stative easing the boom is coming because of three reasons. one, fiscal spending quote, the fiscal deficit is pure and simple, giving various individual and institutions money to spend, which they will spend over time. two, the size of the packages. he says, quote, the qe and deficit spending response to the covid-19 pandemic is a completely different magnitude and without some of the offsetting drags that trailed the great recession. and three, he says that the starting points matter we are not coming into this with banks and companies needing to

deleverage thus, he concludes, quote, it's not unreasonable to expect that an increase in inflation will not be just temporary, end quote. he is hoping for a gldy locks scenario but the two risks for the economy and the market are that potential increase in inflation and secondly the possibility that new covid variants are resistant to the vaccine. but, despite all of the overall short-term optimism he was pretty down beat about the long term challenges that america faces. he said, quote, america has faced tough times before but in each case america's might and resiliency strengthened our position in the world. this time might be different he focused on division, bureaucracy, topics like that. in what i describe as his manifesto for america sections of those 60 pages which in his newsletter dominates compared to the jp morgan company specific

stuff, but so much stuff we could have picked out of the 60 pages. >> is he more bullish than usual, wilfred, when it comes to the near-term outlook? the fact we could have a boom that could last for a few years? i mean did that stan out to you? >> definitely. i have been reading these for six years. i think in terms of the short-term cyclical outlook, this was as bullish as i have heard him. though, as i said at the end there, the frankness on individual points, pretty clear. also on the frankness on the sort of long-term challenges facing america pretty clear. other little interest points as well, which definitely grabbed attention. one was the scale of the threat from other sorts of financial companies. and he had great charts in there about the size of the shadow banking system by assets compared to the banking system and the extraordinary growth there and by fintech companies in terms of market cap versus the banking system he says that threat is incredibly real. of course he says they are ready

for it but listed amazon,.ael, facebook, google, and walmart as extraordinary, the platforms, the data they have is endless, and the threat therefore coming forward significant. i guess shareholders would probably be encouraged that he is talking openly about in a and how he feels they are prepared for those threats. >> more unanimous a spokesman for jp morgan or the banking industry, really for corporate america, and sounding a positive message but with real long term threats. what stood out to you? >> he has a lot of company looking at everything driving the expectation first a very rapid snab back in the economy that is not likely just to be very temporary just the extraordinary of this cycle, a crash and then overwhelming response to the crash, plus the pent up savings and spending power which are in all of these jp morgan stuffed with deposits, credit card charge-off rates plunging to

lows he is right, this is not a lot of leverage out the government really i think this is a consensus view but also one that maybe we are not used to seeing, high nominal gdp growth that's going the last several quarters i think you have to be alert to the idea that we might not be prepared for some of the side effects. it could be inflation but i don't know if we are going to believe it until we see it right up front. >> mike, i guess the final point here in terms of the company specifics yes banks are holding on to under gains today and jp morgan is up 1.3%. but the other overset of this extraordinary cyclical recovery to come is how much is that already priced in, not just in the banking stocks but broader cyclical stocks as we have been discussing at length the last couple of weeks? >> absolutely. i think that's really what the overall market has been contending with, the sense that we have been pricing this in for months doesn't mean it is complete. but it's pretty far along. and thing don't look particularly cheap, even if earnings estimates keep going

up, cyclical stocks look cheaper than perhaps some of the hyper growth stocks. that's the push/pull within the market second year after one of these major lows tends to calm down after making gains wouldn't be surprising to see a period of time where main street outperforms wall street to give back from when wall street really did much better than main street did. >> that was the theme of the year mike, thank. a market flash now on twitter. julia boorstin with the details. >> twitter shares taking a bump higher on reports that twitter said on a press call that people may be able to eventually complete shopping transactions on twitter also saying it was in the early stages thinking about how to monetize the audio chat feature spaces it currently has been rolling out. twitter telling me this fits with what the company said back on its analyst day in february, that is exploring commerce as on

opportunity for twitter. they also talked about different ways that could diversify away from their reliance on advertising, including a subscription service. >> it has been working for instagram in terms of shopping. after the break, voting member of the federal reserve, lael brainard joins us to discuss the released fed minutes and how she is thinking about rate policy and the american economy. you are watching "closing bell" on cnbc. do you down just 24 points ok. not in my house! ha ha ha! ha ha ha! no no no! not today! ha ha ha! ha ha ha! jimmy how happy are folks who save hundreds of dollars switching to geico? happier than dikembe mutumbo blocking a shot. get happy. get geico.

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the latest fed minutes out just in the last hour show the central bank isn't planning to tighten monetary policy any time soon despite the recent uptick in economic activity the fed expects to keep an accommodative stance until it achieves its goal of maximum employment and inflation around 2% joining us federal reserve governor lael brainard welcome back to the show, always great to have you. >> nice to be here. >> is that the right takeaway from the minutes, governor

brainard, that there is going to be some time, you say, before you achieve your goals in other words, no hints of tapering, no hints of normalization. is that what we should take away >> i think what you see there is what you have been hearing from members of the fomc, which is the outlook has brightened considerably on the back of the vaccinations and substantial fiscal support, that additional savings that consumers have accumulated. so brighter outlook. but of course our monetary policy forward guidance is premised on outcomes, not the outlook. and so it is going to be some time before both employment and inflation have achieved the kinds of outcomes that are in that forward guidance. >> how long is some time for you in terms of your own forecast? >> well, i think what's really

important here, sara, is that because we are basing our forward guidance on actual realized outcomes on inflation, actual realized outcomes on employment, that is go to depend on how rapidly we see improvement. so what you see in the sep, the forecast, is considerably better outcomes, both on growth as well as on employment and inflation but, again, that's an outlook. we are going to have to actually see that in the data when you look at the data, we are still far from our maximum employment goal. for instance, you know, you take into account people who have dropped out of the labor force as well as the decline in employment and you know, we're over 9 million jobs short of where we were precovid. if you take into account that

reduction in participation rate, the unemployment rate looks more like 9% than it does like the headline unemployment rate so, you know, in that sense, we've got some distance to go before those outcomes are achieved >> inflation is the other piece of this, of course, and a big debate rate now in the market. chair powell has said that he expects it to be transitory along with some of the other fed members. wondering when your call is on that as far as the upcoming rise in inflation that we are expecting? >> yeah, well, there are some unique factors this year that could be expected to push inflation above 2% this year obviously, there are those base effects that are going to drop out. so we will see inflation on a 12-month basis briefly jumping up in april and may. then later in the year as the economy opens back up and we see that pent up consumption coming into the services sector and more broadly in the me, you know, we could expect to see

some bottle necks insupply chains that might also contribute to some increase in inflation for a period of time but it's really important to recognize that those are transitory, and following those transitory pressures associated with reopening, it's more likely that the entrenched dine flags dynamics that weave seen for well over a decade will take over, then that there will be a sustained surge in inflation for a persistent period. >> i wanted to ask, governor brainard, about some of the things -- the headline points from jamie dimon's annual letter today. one point in particular stood out on qe saying quote much of the money made a round trip because of new liquidity rules it ended up as deposits at the fed not as loans essentially remaining bullish because of other factors like

the fiscal stimulus was that qe doesn't do anything. what's your take on that >> well, i don't want to speak to any particular letter but let me say more broadly if you look at financial conditions, they are very accommodative today, which is very much in line with the forward guidance on our asset purchases and our rate policy as well and they are supporting, clearly supporting, a stronger recovery. if you look at the data that's out today on consumer credit, also really strong there so i would say that, you know, we are seeing the kind of financial conditions broadly across the financial markets that are very consistent with supporting the recovery, with supporting the flow of credit to businesses and to household.

and i think that is very much in line with the goals of ouro overall monetary approximately see stance. >> we have seen treasury yield move up. do you welcome the rise in long term yields as a sign of growth and coming inflation or dupe that to stop >> i certainly have been monitoring movements in tressly yields closely and you know, i would be concerned to see disorderly conditions like we saw on february 25th or movements in yield that might jeopardize achievement of our goals of course in that record i am going to be particularly attentive to changes in policy-sensitive intermediate yield and their relationship to forward guidance that we are providing. but i think what we see in evidence for instance from the new york desk surveys of market participants and primary dealers is that, in fact, market participants do really understand the new forward

guidance, the new monetary policy framework that we have in place. and they seem to sort of have expectations around the conditions both for inflation and employment at the time of liftoff it seemed broadly consistent with that so, you know, i am going to continue monitoring closely. but i would say financial conditions overall remain very accommodative and supportive of the recovery and that's true of course also when you look at the pricis of riskier assets >> not to overly focus on this morning's letter, but there was another theme in it which raised the question at least of whether banks, traditional banks, are much more regulated than some of the new arrivals, either the shadow banking system or newer fintech companies, which clearly are now significant size, bigger than a had the of the banks. what's your view on that going

forward, whether fintech for example, needs to face a slightly more even set of regulations as the traditional banks do. >> we are seeing transformation, rapid transformation of the payment system associated with digitalization that has big implications certainly for us at the federal reserve, for the financial system more broadly. i do think it's important that payments providers have important guardrails around them certainly, consumers have come to expect certain protections from their bank accounts that are embedded in regulations. and they may be surprised to find they don't have some of those same protections when it comes to some of the newer players. so, certainly, i do take a broad view of the financial system, the payment system, and we do want to make sure that there are similar guardrails, that we done see risks to the payment system, we don't see risks to financial stability coming from some of

these new players that we have over -- somewhere in the system there is an ability to oversee those and ensure that the appropriate guardrails are in place. >>finally governor brainard because of your international experience at treasury and some of your relationships there, i wanted to get your take on the global outlook, which the imf told us this week is going to be multispeed, and a lot of by vergences. europe is behind us. emerging markets are sharply behind europe. it all depend on paces of vaccinations, and mutations, and fiscal and monetary stimulus does that factor into your thinking on policy making? and what do you see ahead for the global economy >> absolutely. the international environment is a very important consideration for us as we look both at our financial system and our economy more generally because there are big interactions, spillovers and spillbacks there in terms of what we are seeing, yeah, i think the divergence theme is apt

obviously just like in the u.s. the outlook is heavily dependent abroad on getting control of the virus and making sure vaccinations are widespread. for a whole variety of reasons different countries are moving at different speeds on that. different countries also have different levels of fiscal support. so, you know, you are seeing the u.s. recovery looking like it's really going to pick up steam, and perhaps faster than some of its international peers. you know, that means that we are likely to see some leakages of that strong domestic demand abroad, which meade might lead to some slippage between both u.s. domestic demand and u.s. resource utilization but i think, you know, more broadly, financial conditions here in the u.s. are also important abroad

and you know, there is some sensitivity there. so we are going to be as transparent as we possibly can about our reaction function. you know, i think we have been as clear as we can be, and we are going to continue communicating as clear as we possibly can as those outcomes that we were talking about earlier really start to show progress >> well, part of it is in enter vus like this. we certainly appreciate it lael brainard, federal reserve governor we have 35 minutes left of the session. >> now you see what i have to do every day. >> i know. it is the first day back doing this i used to have a laptop there. last time. i'll get it for tomorrow anyway the dow down ten basis pointser so. a little bit of positive gains for the s&p. nasdaq lightly lower russell the laggard down 1.5%. up next, new comments from the ceo of exxon about the role oil and gas will play in a lower

on society plus, the ceo of t-mobile going all in on 5g back in a couple of minutes. these days you have to keep everything moving and reinvent the wheel. with a hybrid, you can do both. that's why manufacturers are going hybrid with ibm. with watson on a hybrid cloud factories can use ai to automate the little things so they can focus on the next big thing. businesses that want to innovate at scale are going with a smarter hybrid cloud using the technology and expertise of ibm.

welcome back let's have a look at some individual market movers ubs upgrading retailers ambercrombie and pitch is and l brands today saying the companies will fare well this the reopening. both stocks higher nicely, 7% for ambercrombie.

exxon's ceo outliningert company's esg efforts and push to a low carbon future he was on cnbc earlier today her are some of the heylights. >> you look at the role oil and gas plays nod the energy systems around the world, how it supports economic greta, how it supports people's standards of living and look at the opportunity space for people's standards of living to rise particularly in developing countries, there is going to be a continuing demand as spoet works to transition to a lower carbon society. >> exxon doing well along with the rest of the energy space today. >> time for a cnbc news update with rahel solomon. hi, rahel. >> hello good to see you. here's what's happening at this a dallas police officer was arrested on murder charges for allegedly ordering two killings. he was released because prosecutors say they don't have enough evidence to move forward with the case against brian

riser. target says it will invest black owned businesses and is adding resources to help black owned suppliers scale up production. see why democrats and republicans were able to agree on a new voting bill on the news with shepard smith. nike may face legal action from the u.s. postal service at issue is an upcoming version of the air force sneaker that takes design cues from a priority mail package. the postal service accuses nike of aggressively protecting its own property while taking from theirs there is no obvious logo >> it is not obvious to me. >> the blue, the red. >> the blue, the red. >> now i see the stamp. >> but there is no logo.

>> it might be hard the hold up in court thank you. still ahead on the show we will dive into the economic policy and the tax proposaled to pay for the biden administration's jobs pran had he we speak with the transportation secretary. plus, we will discuss the state of the cruise industry with carnival's ceo around donald. the ten-year note yield at 1.67, a little bit of selling today at the back end. the 30-year, 2.35. nothing as extreme eas we you a in the past three weeks. ten-year got as high as 1.78 we'll be right back. some say this is my greatest challenge ever. but i've seen centuries of this. with a companion that powers a digital world, traded with a touch. the gold standard, so to speak ;)

up next, an interview with the ceo of t-mobile. his thoughts on president biden's infrastructure plan and how expansion could impact his blot some line. april is literacy month. cnbc is sharing thoughts about the importance of education.

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welcome back t-mobile going all in on 5g, the company unveiling a new set of initiatives today to mark the beginning of its 5g for all era, including free 5g phone upgrades, and the launch of t-mobile home internet the stock has outperformed competitors at&t and verizon over the last year rallying bay some 71% since the lows last march. i'm happy to welcome in ceo mike seifert. >> thanks for having me. >> so much in today's announce men. i only touched on a couple parts of it. but what interested me the most of all is the t-mobile home

announcement tell us more about that. and exactly the kind of timing, when it will launch, and your initial expectation of how many subscribers you are hoping to grab >> it is just a huge day for the connectivity of the more than 60 million american households in rural areas and smaller markets. they have never had real competition. in fact, 40% of rural americans today have no choice when it comes to their home broadband. we are bringing choice to 30 million homes today with our broad launch of t-mobile home broadband brought to you by 5g technology which as you know we have rapidly rolled out across this country to an extent that far exceed anybody else in our space. >> what are we talking about in terms of pricing options and data download numbers given that clearly at home people often consume quite a lot of data? >> well, this is the real deal as you know, the uncarrier-like

simplicity we are making it one simple nationwide price of $60 a monday that includes the taxes, the fees, the guchas the other guys have, the devices. so it's really great one monthly payment of $60 and zero cents and customers are going to average 100 mega bits per second so it is really a huge day because so many people in rural america, and smaller towns, have been left behind, with no real competition. you know, even on the wireless side, our market share is only in the low teens in smaller towns and rural areas. compared to 35% in the big cities so we have massive room to run here while doing some real good for the connectivity of americans. >> mike, on the free phones, i don't know, the stock down today. are we to take this as a sign that competition is only increasing between you and verizon and at&t >> no, you know, our stock has been moving around at -- it is not that far off the call time highs.

this is a competitive market and t-mobile loves competition we have always thrived in it i will tell you one thing, the market is returning in wireless. for the last year there has been a muted switching environment as people haven't been wanting to come the retail where so much switching happens in wireless. that's coming back we feel like we are well positioned in 2021 as the switching margaret is now back it's an great opportunity for us as america gets back to shopping and switching and considering whether they have got the right wireless provider. >> mike, you mentioned the attraction of getting your connect connectivity wirelessly in rural areas. what about in city areas in five year's time what percentage of the population will have canceled their fixed line connection to have one connection for both their mobile and home phone delivered by 5g >> that's a fascinating part of today's news

we are covering 30 million american households today that makes us one of the largest isps in the country by geographic area today on our launch day we are bringing competition into the suburbs and the cities starting today people want lower prices, simplicity they want deportability, having a subscription based on their person and not on their building we are bringing them competition and choice, what we promised we would do had he we created this new company by merging with sprint lastier. >> i am curious your take on the biden administration's infrastructure plan which includes expanding broadband to people in rural communities as you have been talking about and investment in 5g does it do enough? if the goal is ultimately to compete with china and get ahead of them on this type of infrastructure, do you think the biden plan achieves that >> that's certainly one of the

goals, sara. i tell you one thing that we have seen that democrats and republicans agree on is the importance of connecting rural americans in this country and bridging the digital divide did making sure no one is left behind f. there is something this last year has shown during the pandemic it is just how important that is. home connectivity is critically important for economic greta we will see what the president works out with congress but today with our big announcement today is a big day for the connectivity of rural americans and we are not waiting >> do you support the plan, even with higher taxes? >> we will see what the plan turns out to be. but we are ready to jump in. if there is a plan that allows us to catalyze efforts and it is a practical plan we are ready to jump in and make sure that any effort that helps us reach rural americans with 5g connectivity if it helps bridge the digital divide in this country and it is a practical plan we are ready to go execute against it if it

tops. >> mike seifert thank you for joining us on a slew of big announcements today. >> appreciate it. >> we appreciate it. ♪ tell me what you want, what you really really want. >> what do teens really want disturbs out they want to go back to the '90s the stocks that could benefi om this new trend next in the marked zone. ♪

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back from rid hotels wealth management welcome, josh. we will kick it off with the broader market major averages losing steam into close. the s&p 500 still holding on to its gains, bearly. it is near a record high level the dow slipping positive, being helped out right now by jp morgan, microsoft, and apple, not so much by boeing, disney and home depot mike, if you look at the action on the major averages it's flat. tress leery yields also not doing a whole lot. you could argue a lot is priced in because we have seen fantastic data, on jobs, on services, on jobs openings this we can where normally the mark would surge. >> we have gone a long pay, three months into it we have sled down. the market is listless, tired, call it whatever you want, but it is not giving up much territory on the index level just let beneath the surface there is a little bit of weakness, a little bit of i think digestion of this

move i am willing to have two things be true at once, the fundamentals are great and the market figured a lot of it out and a lot of people are fully exposed to the market at this point. we are looking for perhaps the next source of energy, whether it comes by way of a pullback and getting people shaken out or maybe sideways for a little bit or some other jolt of news i think that's the condition but volumes really really evaporated here. >> josh, you have been looking at sort the percentage of companies that are kind of stretched to the upside at the moment what's that telling you? >> well, i guess i wouldn't use the term stretched but -- all right taking a step back, you look at the nasdaq 100 we said, all right, it's the end for large cap growth, these stocks are done, nobody wants anything to do with then now you have 85% of the nasdaq 100 back above the 200-day, which is phenomenal, like in any market environment and that number was under 60% just a couple of weeks ago

so that entire teartive you can now throw in the garbage facebook, microsoft, google making new highs amazon is coming back. it is up like 75 points today, heavy drip in ams. apple is busting loose out of a prior range, nvidia and large cap chip names are running that narrative is gone and now large cap growth, specifically tech communications helping the averages at least maintain where they have gotten to. and then you look at the s&p 95% of the s&p 500 stocks are now above their 200-day moving afternoon. those of those are highesing 200-day mas. that is insane in terms of participation in a bull market now, depending on what and who you are, there are two ways to interpret that one way is to say it is goldilocks, it's as good as it guess, take some off the table, it couldn't be this good for too long i think that's reasonable. but another way to look at that

is, really that's the type of market you want to be short like, seriously? like what's wrong with you almost that's kind of where i am is right in the middle. i can understand the push and pull at these levels but my instinct tells me this thing has higher to go, even if we have to correct in the short-term that's where i am emotionally, wilf >> good to hear, josh. it's good to hear. often -- >> what are you giggling about, sara. >> your intensity. >> jp morgan's ceo jamie dimon releasing his annual share uld holder letter today. we spoke about it in the first hour, i wanted to circle back to his comments on work from home complications for both real estate companies and perhaps costs for banks. diamond talks about only a small percentage, 10% of employees, working from home in full in the long term. so not a major shift like some tech companies but says many will work under a new hybrid model thus he says, quote,

remote work will change how we manage our real estate we will quickly move to a more open seating arrangement as a result for every 100 employees we may need seats for only 60 on average this will signature conditionally reduce our need for real estate. and this guy's really going to help their costs but for a company with only 10% fully working from home to lower real estate needs by 40% has to be a bit of a concern for real estate companies. mike, we will see of course if that's already priced in or not. the other headline, he confirmed we will complete rebuild of their main mid town new york building and frankly move more people into it because it is going to be capacity for 14,000 regardless. >> they were caught in a unique position planning and building a new eadquarters. josh, like jamie dimon is the ceo of a financial services firm i wonder when thinks about thinking about real estate needs from this point on. >> he will release it in his

shareholder letter. >> that's a hell of a toss, mike, i appreciate it. we are lighting a pile of money, tens of thousands of dollars, every month on fire. and that's very uncomfortable for me as the ceo. but what choice do i have? i am in year three of a ten-year lease on bryant park my office and view are beautiful. i have the sales force tower caddy corner to us and i read today they are opening a shake, sha. i don't want to pick up stakes and abandon the space. even if i wanted to, legally i can't. we are a paying tenant our plan is to turn this vulnerability that we have with this high falutin' space we have in manhattan into a positive so you will see us probably convert the conference room into a studio, start doing more media from there and have guests and people hanging out and showing up because clients aren't. we have now become accustomed to

having all of our client meetings on zoom they like it better. easier for us. i don't think it is going to go back i think i am not unique. i am certainly not the size of jp morgan, but there are many firms like mine where we will have employees day to day in our offices, just not everyone and it won't seem weird at all and i'll probably be in manhattan two days a week and the other three days a week i will be out here where i live. and i think that's like the way things are going to be, and no one is really going to mind it too much the only people that are going to be hurt by this are commercial real estate brokers and companies like sl green that wasn't even feel the impact immediately. it will be in three or four years when they go to re-sign existing tenants and those tenants disappear on them or take a third of the amount of square footage or whatever it is i never thought i would like mall reits better than manhattan office reits, like for the last 20 years, i never thought that

that would happen, that's where i am today. >> sl green has had a good run, climbed up, up 50% in the last year, really come off its lows but you would stay away. >> they have been able the refinance everything same for ver gnatto trust. i don't think the real impact has hit these companies yet. i understand it is manhattan, it's l.a people will figure out what to do with the space. these things always come back. it is cyclical i understand that argument i don't think that that argument has ever been put flew this virtualization moment that we have been put through. and i don't think it comes back to the extent that it was. and it's amazing that this is the way it is, but this is the way it is. >> apple explaining why it is giving users new tools to protect their privacy. julia boorstin with the details. >> apple's new operating system will allow its youers to opt out of ad targeting which facebook has said will hurt small businesses's availability to target consumers with ad

users will see a prompt like this one asking if they want to allow an app such as facebook to track their activity across all the other companies' apps and website that they visit. apple also now requires apps to disclose exactly what type of data they are collecting apple warn nag the average app has six trackers embedded and that data brokers collect, sell, and disclose personal information to third parties including location access, and even the photos you have on your phone. guys, back over to you. >> oh, sorry, julia. didn't realize it was me julia boorstin thank you very much for that we will get to courtney reagan next, who is having a look at why '90s fashion trend are hot right now. court? >> gosh, this reminds me of being a teen when asked about the top fashion trends in piper sandler's

biannual teen survey, they stand. mom jeans and ripped gene. remember grunge, baggy pants and flannel? hot again, to. crop tops as well. baby tees. for shoes, nike reigns stream-2 years running, michael jordan's called out, and birkenstocks hot to hair trend, curtain bangs, middle parts, curly hair, perms for the males and butter fly hair clips you will at that is tops for teens and the way to play hair and makeup trends if you are looking for stock ideas off some of these survey results. back over to you guys. >> perms for the males was that a 90s trend more sort of the '70s, right >> well, curly hair in general was big in the '90s.

i let my hair gocaly in the '90s there were some people getting perms of both genders. perhaps it is a thing we want to look into again. wilf, do you want to try it, be in with the cool kids? >> i thankfully keep it short enough now that that's not possible we will move on off that one court, thank you josh brown, though, is known for being a trend setter what do you think of this, josh? talk to us about the investable areas. >> i was reading that gen z is killing the skinny jean, much to the dismay of millennials. but on behalf of gen x, i want the say thank you. thank you very much. we appreciate your service, gen z. >> i like skinny jeans, too. i guess i am not gen z. there is a two-minute mark --? throw them out >> kourtney, i do remember crop tops dearly. don't have any left. two minutes to go in the trading day, what do you see in the

market internals >> mixed looking at the up/down volume definitely a skew to the downside more stocks down than up volume relatively light. also, mega cap growth, the blue chips have taken up the slack for the rest of the market if youlook at the mgk, the meg cap index against pure value a decent performance spread we are seeing so far this week of two percentage points. and the volatility index is really feeling weight of this relatively quiet market. dropped below 17 briefly now in the 17s down trend, generally bullish when it comes to the vix. >> the weight or perhaps relief of it,ic moo, falling down to 17.3 on theics have. about a minute left of the session. just under that. u.s. dollar we should mention is flat today oil up a bit gold and silver giving up a bit of their recent bounce the russell 2000 sagging down

1.6% and the rest of the averages hold up well of course after their recent records a couple days ago. the dow might well close positive it is up three basis points at the moment up ten points. it was up 92 at the high, down 82 at the low. the nasdaq capacity is just negative the nasdaq 100 just higher communication services and tech, the two outperforming sectors. followed by financials banks have a boost even though yields pulled back materials, industrials and utilities at the bottom of the pile >> sara. >> looks like we got a positive close both for the s&p and the dow, just barely welcome back, everyone, the "closing bell. i'm sara eisen along with wilfred frost, and mike santoli, cnbc senior markets commentator. take a look at how we finished up the day on wall street. dow finished higher by 16 points as you can see, a narrow range we started off strong, dipped into the red and closed pretty much flat. biggen winner on the dow, jp morgan microsoft, apple also.

s&p 500 also closing just up, .1%. technology and communication services were the two best performing sectors tech having a comeback here. materials and industrials were the bottom two the nasdaq closed just about flat, unchanged eve though we did see strength in big tech like google, apple, facebook the russell 2000 the biggest loser, down.16, down for the week 1.4%. a big spill for the small caps we will talk about it in a moment coming up, carnival's ceo arnold donald on the big increase in future bookings and when the company could actually begin sailing begun. plus an interview with accident treasury secretary wally adeyemo, his first interview since being confirmed as number two to janet yellen. how many jobs the president's infrastructure plan will create

among the topics with him. >> first, we will talk with the markets. josh brown stays with us and helena -- >> mike santoli, first to you. >> what defensive, somewhat more stable growth. but the market going to recent laggards and using it as an opportunity the play this rotational trade it was an amazon and apple type day in terms of leadership i think big picture obviously this is kind of bull market behavior if your two biggest tenettes are not to get in trouble and not fight the north and the tape you are not fighting this bullish trend. the fed told you it is going to be maximum easing as long as they can i think all those things fit in relatively well together we have also each of the last three months have had late in the month a little bit of a shakeout, a little mini blowup that did not really expand the sass stocks down 20%

arc down 20% spacst are not doing anything right now. and the overall s&p has held in there fine, which is a different character to the market. >> helena we were talking before the close about the vix and the calmness we have seen there, below 20 and now down near the 17 handling. s that a bullish signal or is it a calm before the storm and things are looking too easy. >> thanks for having me and for the question, wilf i think the market finally kind of felt the clear pathway forward in a way that's where we are seeing the position, like mike said people are positioned for the start of the recovery i think what's important the focus on from here on the is potential and how do you manage your veflts and portfolio for

inflation to pick up we have seen this be more and more prevalent in conversations. we have seen the incredible data we have had in the last couple of weeks, and we think it is people to start, if they haven't, positions portfolios for this especially in the potential that you have inflation picking up now not only we have the trends of did -- the central bank approximately see change and governor brainard mentioned in her interview also the base effect pressures on prices what happens when you have now a paradigm that's different from the last decade and the potential of exfixed income ratios going positive. >> if inflation is your theme and you say there is still time to position accordingly, how do you do that? what do you recommend are? >> we -- you know, we have started to position to that.

i will go through kind of the path that we have taken and how we are looking at it going forward. we started last year around march, obviously we are on five-year, averages we started bying tapes and commodities as well we reduced duration in fixed income assets when appropriate and november we thought ready for the recovery after pretty much a of the of the things that we were looking at, check the boxes for a full-on recovery and we added exposure in travel and leisure and some in regional banks. then recently at the beginning of the year we added more positioning to metals. >> should mention that the s&p 500 closed slightly higher, but it was actually a record close it ellipsed the last record by two points didn't take much sort of happened quietly in the last few seconds or see.

elina mentioned last hour, our interview with federal reserve governor lael brainard here's what she said about the global economic recovery and who you she is thinking about it. >> you are seeing the u.s. recovery looking like it is really going to pick up steam and, perhaps faster than some of its international peers. you know, that means that we are likely to see some leakages of that strong domestic demand abroad, which might lead to some slippage between both, u.s. domestic demand and u.s. resource utilization but i think, you know, more broadly, financial conditions here in the u.s. are also important abroad, and you know, there is some sensitivity there. so we are going to be as transparents we possibly can about your reaction funk. >> lael brainard, governor of the federal reserve, mike, just saying that international developments and the outlook

factors heavily into her thinking into making federal reserve policy i would say joining with some of the other fed officials we heard this week saying yes the outlook improved, we are encouraged by what we are saying but we done make policy on the outlook, we are focusing on the outcomes that was her way of saying we are dovish the market needs the get that message. >> it is a consistent message. but the news with the fed is going to be that their stance is unchanging even as the economy improves and shows some momentum that's the adjustment that markets have been trying to make, figuring out what it means for yield and the tolerance of inflation. i don't think we should expect very much different in terms of their position, that they want the see the evidence, the reality, of full employment, the reality of inflation running hotter for some period of time as onned the just trying to be proactive in anticipating those things coming through. >> josh, i guess the question is, though, when you think about the stocks that are set to

benefit the most from that, the cyclical stocks, have they already priced that kind of perfect scenario in of another six to 12 months of no tightening of policy and a big bounceback of growth given that they have run so well in the last few months? >> yeah, it's a really good question and we get in a question a lot i would be lying if i didn't say i really don't know, because so much of this cycle is so unprecedented that even to look at historical examples of where we think we are in the cycle now or how long the cycle could last -- all of the data, all of the superlatives are so outside of the range of what has been historically experienced that it's -- it's almost like a -- it's almost like joke the try to use thatprecedent. but what i would say is, you know, people talk about rates and where they are like, where do you think rates should be? because the s&p 500 is now more than 20% higher than where it

was before the pandemic. so shouldn't the yield for example, on the ten-year be hire t -- higher than where it is today? it probably should i think it makes more sense at 2% than 1.5% you go down the list -- nike coalas was write being this. you look around the world, there is only one major debt market, one one major market where yield rates are higher than they were before the pandemic. that's japan around the world i think there has to be higher rates coming. then you think, well is that definitely a negative? it probably isn't for banks. banks have been underearning because of how small the rate has been i think this setup is good for u.s. stocks, i think it is good toree merging markets.

i want to say invested even though i am expecting volatility in rates and i tell you where the rubber really hits the road the taper is going to have to start way sooner than i think where people think just because it is common sense. i don't think he could be buying the amount of securities that we are buying every month and when that taper talk really starts, i think that's when you are going the see a big pick up in volatility. but that doesn't mean it is because the market is about to crash. it means because the environment is about to materially change and people have to get used to that i think we will weather it okay. but that's going to be a great buying opportunity, i think, for cyclicals and some of the areas that you mentioned and it will happen. >> josh and elaena thank you boh for joining us today. >> thank you still to come, deputy treasury secretary wally adeyemo on amazon ceo jeff bezos's call for higher corporate taxes to help pay for infrastructure

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the irs and treasury department announcing today that over 150 million stimulus checks have been dibtded as part of the american rescue plan meanwhile executives are speaking out about president joe

biden's infrastructure plan, jp morgan's jamie dimon saying i have little doubt that with excess savings, stimulus, more qe and potential new infrastructure bill and euphoria around the end of the pandemic the u.s. economy will likely boom he adds the boom could run easily into 2023 earlier i spoke about all of these issues and more about deputy treasury secretary wally adeyemo. i asked him whether he disagrees with jamie dimon's outlook >> the jobs plan spends money over years on things like infrastructure not only roads and deepening ports, but also broadband. over the course of the last several days i spent time talking to the ceos of major companies. they reminded me is it not foreign that we invest in

traditional infrastructure but we think about infrastructure more broadly investing in broad band is critical for unlocking progress in urban as well as rural areas. i agree with jamie dimon, if we implement the jobs plan the president is advocating we could see economic growth well into the future and create well paying jobs. >> how many jobs have you made estimates in are you working on an analysis that will quantify what the number of jobs will be from the american jobs plan? >> we have seen estimates that put the numbers in the millions of jobs. the key isn't just the number of jobs they are well paying jobs that provide americans with a living wage, give them the ability to provide a future for their families and also improves competitiveness. i can tell you that the investments is president is calling for in the jobs package are the same investments that the china are making and other countries are making it is important that we make them now in order to make sure america can compete in the 21st

century. >> on the issue of competitiveness there are some criticisms about the rising corporate tax rate and some of the other provisions in that that will raise the amount corporation also have to pay, and that with make us less competitive and hurt greta h how are you responding to those critiques. earlier this week secretary yellen said the made to will call for a global corporate tax. the effective rate for taxes for multinationals in the united states is 8%, custom is lower than the rate that teachers pay and essential workers pay. by producing a minimum tax that applies around the world it will ensure that american companies are competitive. the fact that so many of secretary yellen's counterparts around the world joined her in calling for in in the last few days. >> is the treasury open to a

digital tax where european countries could tax some of our tech giants like apple and facebook that have a lot of business there but not necessarily headquarters or operations in that country that has been a sticking point with europe? >> we have made very clear to our european counter parts that we will not support a tax that is skrim in a toir towards american companies but we do support taxation that makes sure companies have to pay a level rate throughout the world. that's why we are in favor of a minimum global tax which will make sure companies are no longer able to skirt taxation in the united states or around the world which is fundamentally to the benefit of all of our countries because all of us need these revenues to make sure we address inequality and allow economies to grow. >> it is no surprise that germany and france would support the global tax what about a country like ireland which has 12.5%

corporate tax rates? what i am getting at is how realistic is this, getting the support of all the major economies and then getting the congress and other countries to agree to everything. >> this is to counter what has been a race to the bottom in international taxation we have seen success with germany and france and india and the uk in talking about the importance of a holistic response to this issue we believe that through both the thing we are going to do globally through the g20 making sure that the united states is back and willing to agree with t others around the world. in addition to the global steps we take, we need to act domestically eliminating loopholes. >> speaking of that, you

mentioned you had a number of conversations about the in intrastructure plan and the jobs plan, did you speak with jeff bezos? >> i haven't. >> he came out with an interesting statement supporting the infrastructure bill and higher carpet taxes. this is a corporation that president biden has called out by name for not paying their fair share. >> i think base owes and other ceos recognize we need the enhance the american economy in ordered to do that they recognize we need the pay for it the best way to pay for sit the proposal the president put out which calls an for an increase in corporate taxes in order to make sure we are awarding countries that innovate in ways that create jobs rather than innovate in ways that look for avoidance of taxation. >> on the infrastructure bill, one of the knocks is that it is not fully about infrastructure

$600 billion, a little more than that is roads and bridges and ports and airports, but there is $400 billion in expansion for med medicaid, for home health care $200 billion in affordable housing $100 billion for public schools. why try to put it all under the infrastructure umbrella when you know republicans aren't going to get on board. >> the reality is that we need to think about infrastructure broadly. the pandemic taught us we can't only think about traditional infrastructure, which is roads and bridges and ports. but we need to think about what it takes for us to compete in the 21st century, which includes things like broadband. a number of the ceos and investors i spoke to made it clear that in order for america to compete in the 21st century we need to make investments in americans' future. that includes unlocking the potential of the american workers. when you think about the -- economy and making sure we are able to take care of our seniors and our children it is critical to our future in terms of the

investments in our children but also making sure americans, instead of having the take care of elderly individuals are able to return to work. we have seen one of the groups who have been hit hardest by covid-19 have been those who have to care for others. their not able to be in the work force. we need the make sure they have the forward and infrastructure around them to make sure they can return to the work force and contribute to the economy. >> our thanks to wally adeyemo, the newly minted deputy pressry secretary under janet yellen it highlights how much the administration is doing around communication for this american jobs plan, custom is the infrastructure plan and also the pay fors, including the corporate taxes and some of the international taxation, which they say will raise more than $2 trillion, so will pay for the plan of course they have get republicans on board or at least try to, and the business community at large which is why jeff bezos's statement in support, he

think -- he says he supports higher corporate taxes, is notable, because it will certainly raise the amount that they have to pay and could potentially bring a lot of money back from overseas into the u.s. >> i am interested to see if that -- particularly the international part comes together as smoothly as he seems to be suggesting i can see how everyone wants to get to the end result. but to say something along the lines that we are not going to sign onto something that disadvantages u.s. companies i think brits and others would say that the starting point is an unbelievably beneficial setup for u.s. companies and the u.s. has a global tax system rather than a national based one which other countries have the uk and european nations if they sign up for something like this will be ntd with aing to make some gains. maybe it won't be too offputting

to the u.s. and u.s. companies for example, in the big tech -- >> the digital tech. >> almost always -- exactly, the digitate tax, the eu and the uk would want to capture more of the economics of those companies' businesses taking place in their nations and they are currently booking almost discredit tax from interesting, i think a lot of people would like to see some kind of an agreement the question is whether those creases can be ironed out beforehand great stuff as always sara. courty reagan has the details. >> for the five weeks in march for the comparable sales for costco they are reporting total company comparable sales up 16%. canada was the strongest segment. then international followed by u.s. actually, the weakest, but still up 14% when you strip out and look at e-commerce, the growth there, 57.7%. now, that sounds high. it is impressive

but it has been higher in previous months during the pandemic costco shares you can see here, sort of little changed on this news as often happens when they put out these reports. it is considered a consumer staple and is pretty steady eddie when these reports come out. up next, cardinal's ceo on whether he could be forced to move its home port outside the u.s. in order to sail depend. plus, chief u.s. equity strategist on why the market is giving him a 1999 vibe that's no good news for investors. don't think eggs talking about perms.

carnival stock closing higher after announcing a business update for q 1 this morning. the company says it is working with the cdc to restart cruising in the u.s. and that advance bookings for 2022 are tracking ahead of prepandemic levels. joining us, carnival corporation's ceo arnold donald. good to see you, thank you for joining us. >> wilf, thank us a a pleasure to see you, and you, too, sara thank you. >> i wanted to start by the state of play here in america at the moment and i know with the update you

are working closely with the cd and you are optimistic about the direction rear heading do you think there is any fair reason to explain why the rules and restrictions should be different on a boat to a plane as things stand today? >> i think in terms of restrictions and stuff, obviously we would like to be treated the same as other sectors in travel and tourism and entertainment. we have sailed successfully as an industry and as a company in europe during this pandemic with the if you cases that existed being handled seamlessly, and no -- no significant outbreaks with the advancement of vaccines, and the advancement of treatments, the advances in testing, rapid testing, et cetera, we feel strongly that we are in a position soon here in the u.s. to be able to sail. so we are working with kprcdc a theadministration the come up

with a practical solution. the guidelines issued on april 2nd on the conditional sail order are not workable but we are confident with conversation and exchaengs we can get to something so we can be sailing in the summer here in the u.s. >> when you look at the uk, arnold, where activity for you guys is picking up quite a plot in the months ahead and they have got similarly successful vaccination rates like the u.s., do you think that's a model for what might happen here, ie, sort of single country departure and return cruises so you don't then venture into areas where perhaps vaccination rates aren't as encouraging or infection rates are a little worse >> yeah, we are going to be informed by the global experts, and the scientists around the world. of course we are going to follow whatever protocols are in place in the various destinations we go to. we think with the advent of vaccines and large numbers of people being vaccinated and by

the time we sail, far more numbers will be vaccinated, and then the other protocols in place, that we can mitigate, you know, outbreaks, make sure that doesn't happen, and make certain we can handle whatever few cases there might be from community spread from land appropriately so we think we are on a path forward. but the scientists will inform us and the governments will make the determination. we are excited about our sailings in the uk this summer. >> i wanted the revisit the cdc guidelines again, arnold i find it confusing. they lifted the no sail order back in october and gave you all of these conditions which were essentially impossible now what when can you actually set sail from the u.s. according to the cdc and the u.s. government? >> at this time, it's not clear when we would be able to actually set sail. there are phases the first phase was just bringing ships back into u.s.

waters all 30 of the ships that we brought back are in green status in that condition. that's just with minimal crew on board. the next phase is to prepare for test cruises and then the details on the test cruises are thot not completely outlined yet and there is no detail in actually resuming for gust cruises going forward that still remains to be played out. right now what we see is still kind of a product of where we were before, before vaccines, before there was less pressure and risk for icu units being overwhelmed with cases, before we sailed as an industry nearly 400,000 guests in europe, if would youer than 50 cases, even before the vaccines. and before a person today could fly from the u.s. to another country, get on a cruiseship, and then come back to the u.s., whether they are vaccinated or not. but here in the u.s., even if you are vaccinated, at this

point you couldn't get on a crew ship so we think we need an approach -- i amconfident the cdc is trying to do its job, the administration has made huge progress with vaccinations and getting command of this thing and all of working together and staying together -- we are confident we can work together and arrive at something that will be a workable solution and hopefully have sailgs from the u.s. yet this summer. >> it does seem strange that you can do almost everything else in this country now except for go on cruises arnold i understand your frustration you threatened today that you might have to move ports from the u.s., away, and take jobs. is that something that you are seriously looking at >> no, we wouldn't threaten anything the practical reality is we have to generate cash to be able to stay alive as a company. a number of companies already announced home porting from other locations where they normally would have home ported from the u.s that is a lot of jobs that are

going away from the u.s. and over half a million people in the u.s. are dependent on the cruise very for jobs and they are suffering right now. the reality is we want to stay here especially with our carnival brand which is kind of america's cruiseline and sails more american cruises than any other line bee really want the home port in the u.s. if we are able to but if we are unable to we have no choice but to take some sailings from elsewhere. but it's in the a threat. >> i wanted to ask about vaccine passports. in some places including the uk there is quite a lot of aversion to them calling them an invasion of personal privatesy. do you understand in a aversion? or are they reasonable things to expect for things like cruises and probably something that would be temporary >> most nations are looking at one of the following things,

either vaccines or a test, pcr antigen test or a antibody test. some are looking at the pcr test or the antigen or the antibody others are looking at either one of those three we would encourage everyone to get vaccinated we any it is one of the best thing to do to mitigate the risk are of yourself having any sequences for you to contract virus. it keeps you out of the hop and keeps you from having the long term effects the vaccines have proven to be incredibly effective in that regard we would encourage everyone to get a vaccine. when it comes to passports and identification and all of that, obviously we are going to work with whatever we need to work with to verify whatever we need to verify. that's for others to decide, as they have for all of the other travel conditions that we operate under. and so i would just encourage everyone to get vaccinated but i do understand personal choice and personal liberty. >> arnold, good to see you, as

always thank you for joining us. >> thank you so much, guys be safe. thank you. >> arnold donald there from carnival could you sees. ♪ do you believe in life after love. coming up, citi chief u.s. equity strategy tobias less kovic sings that song for us -- no he explains why he believe this is market is eerily similar to 1999 we are back in a couple of minutes. ♪ (vo) ideas exist inside you, electrify you. they grow from our imagination, but they can't be held back. they want to be set free. to make the world more responsible, and even more incredible. ideas start the future,

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risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. welcome back time for a cnbc news update. >> president biden will reportedly unveil executive orders addressing gun violence tomorrow among the moves, requiring background checks for buyers of so-called ghost guns, homemade firearms. mike pence inked a deal to pen his autobiography with simon and smuster. italy is now recommending the astrazeneca covid vaccine only be given to people over 60 years old. italian health officials site possible links between the vax scene rare blood clots. host cities for soccer's european championship have until

today to confirm that fans will be able to attend matches. games may be moved elsewhere after officials said they could not guarantee spectators could be in their stadiums some of them may move to london which is already scheduled to have the most games of any city. up next, mike santoli looking at current credit conditions as junk bonds continue to hold up well. plus, the electric vehicle market is really taking off. and u.p.s. is hoping its new ndrchase of electric takeoff and laing vehicles will help take the package delivery business to new heights. we will have that story later on "closing bell. ♪ if your money is working toward the same goals, why keep it in different places? sofi is a one-stop shop for your finances- designed to work better together. spend with sofi and get cash back rewards that automatically go toward your goals. like investing in stocks, etfs, and crypto. that's better together. or pay down your sofi debt sooner.

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s&p had a mini rally into the close but it was enough for a record high. let's go back to mike santoli for a look at credit conditions right now. mike, which we always like to look at. >> we heard lael brainard just talking about the loose financial conditions that the fed is kind of taking credit for. nowhere more evidence of the evident than in high yield debt. flat on a year to date ace bases even as investment debt traded more regularly to treasury

bonds. down in the first quarter, junk debt has held up well. reflecting in very low yield on high yield dent. look at a longer term chart here of junk debt yielding 4%. up off the lows but modestly so when you consider that ten-years more than doubled from their lows recently. that's not a big hurdle for corporate credit, for the cost of borrowing for companies here's a good example, a single fine example carnival crews lines just over a year ago issued $4 billion in doesn't. it showed the market were reopened and that some of the distressed companies could finance themselves it was an 11.5% coupon they paid 11.53% on this particular debt. look at the price since then it surged. it's at about 115 right now. it brought its yield down low

4% this is for a junk rated company that's still not really doing business in a big way at the moment that shows that you the market has basically said we are willing to float, so to speak, almost any company on the way to recovery here. >> mike, great stuff thanks for that. up next, feeling a 1999 vibe we are firing up the "closing bell" time machine with a flashback to the late '90s citi's chief u.s. equities strategistil wl tell us why there is a 1999 feeling in touchdown's mark market and what that could mean for your money we'll be right back.

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the s&p 500 finishing higher for the fourth day oifr the last five closing at record high, but our next guest is rising the red flag on stocks saying he is getting a 1999 vibe that the markets could be a jo risk for investors. here to discuss is tobias leif cowitch, citi group's u.s. equities strategist. 1999 was the dot combubble do you see similarities. >> i see investors kind of taking on if you want to think about it kind of a sense of there is nothing that can go wrong kind of phenomenon we see it in the panic euphoria model, extended valuation. earnings vision momentum and earnings guidance showing weak seasons not having an impact investors believe this is going

to be a build-out year already and you can see it in the stock prices >> even if the economy tobias hits the bull out of the park and rebounds very strongly, what level of pullback do you think we could see at any moment in the year ahead >> i enjoy the baseball meta for from the brit. i think people already understand the notion of we are going to have a very strong economy is you could have a very good company and not necessarily have a great stock. similarly, you can have a strong economy and not necessarily have market -- usually stocks move about nine months ahead of the earnings we would argue if you track what the market is doing you are almost discounting 190 in earnings for the s&p 500 which would be 10% ahead of expectations already so the treat is anticipating powerful economic data spurred on by fiscal stimulus and the benefits of vaccination in terms of the economic reopening.

>> so you don't like all the frothy sentiment, the higher valuations, the idea that it's going to be great and it can only get better. what do you do about that, then? how should you position yourself for some caution >> kind of scale back a bit on the relative performance of small caps over large caps that's been a great trade for the last six or nine months. our lead indicator model is saying that trade is probably spent and you are probably safer in the bigger cap stories. number two we look for companies with pricing variables if significant inflation is developing -- we are not talking about hyper inflation, but if we get to 3 or 4% does the market get squeamish. in that case, find the companies that have pricing power that can deal with it if you get commodity price

increases you can pass through to the customer right away and you will goet a quarterer two later that could create earn hiccups and there is not a whole lot of room for disappointment. >> what about sector basis you touched on it in one case with cyclicals versus growth but what about by sector >> we think the capital goods group is an area that's going to benefit from an improvement from capital spending we track 700 companies capital spending numbers and they are improving over three months ago. number two, anything tied to the leisure, hospital, travel component -- i shouldn't say anything but some stocks are already anticipating this but there is enormous pent undemand. the one thing we are not able to do is going out and doing things you were able to buy a car people were buying lap tops and tablets for their kids' remote school you had all of that activity in

terms of goods but services is the place where i think you are going to blowoff demand and it will carry into 2022 because we are probably not going to be able to do everything we want to do, especially when you think of $2 trillion of incremal savings over the last tough day today en though s&p record high down 1.6. what are they 6% off the highs is a positioning thing, did it get too crowded or is the value trade no longer the hot thing? >> it could be a number of things, i don't think the value trade is right way to think of it because third of the company in russell 2,000 are unprofitable, biotech and energy companies suffered in the down turn so it's more the constitution of the index to have the impact and will move higher from a market perspective as well. again, i want to be a little bit

careful not chasing everything that is tied to value or economic sensitivity we're not that bullish on materials because in the u.s. 80% of the material suckers chemicals not mining, you go to latin american and asia you see the reverse 80% is metals and mining it's a different composition to be aware of. >> thanks so much for joining us >> my pleasure take care. >> no time to sneak in the share song next time perhaps. up next, reaching peak delivery, ups with the latest deal that could completely shake up the future of its business model

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ups agreeing to buy electric vertical aircraft in an effort to speed up package delivery in smaller markets. >> it's pretty cool stuff, ups testing ebital's for commerce, these fly like a plane, they will start up with beta technology and test for b2b deliveries, to reduce handling and turn around time by enabling

drop offs on top of buildings or to remote locations. >> create flexabilities where these aircraft can be flying constantly where you don't have to be tied to specific airports you could go building to building this is where it gets more interesting, we can take more merchandise directly to our customers, whatever they may be. >> the batteries are compatible with rival electric trucks, ups committed to buying 10,000 of those ev for deliver and total of 150 ev vehicles search more on cnbc.com. >> thank you, frank. up next what every investor needs to look out for tomorrow "closing bell" will be right back alright, okay. how's that? is that how you hold a mirror? [ding] power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app

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stocks closing at a record-high. on the docket tomorrow don't miss an all-star panel for imf debate on global economy, including head of the federal recertifies, jeremy powell and managering director of the world trade organization and president of the euro group, watch live on 12:00 p.m. even east earn

on cnbc.com and twitter and youtube pages and part of it will be on the show as well. what's more exciting for me, than global debate, one thing we have to talk about, huge congratulations to willfred and kaley who 2k3w09 engaged over the weekend. >> we did, indeed. i'm sure you would agree, sh sharea, it's much, much, much more exciting. it just puts everything in perspective. look how lucky i am. she is so stunning we're so excited we're so happy happened on saturday in florida, and we just have the most heavenly couple days since i didn't want it to end but coming back to the city was made all the more easier knowingly have kaley by my side. >> really, really sweet. she's a lucky lady and so are you. one question, when you get on one knee because you're so tall are you at eye level

how's that work? >> you're forcing me to reveal that you already know, i failed to go with one knee, in my nervousness i went on both knees, begging her, as it were to say yes but i got the yes and that's all that matters and no, i feel very lucky and thank you guys for the shout out. >> we're so excited for you. >> congratulations we love you both that does it for us on "closing bell", "fast money" begins now >> congratulations, i'm melissa lee this is "fast money" today's trader lineup guy adami, tim seymour, nadine and hopefully hroniss grasu will grasso will join us. game on with tech stocks hitting fresh all-time highs we'll break down the record moves. and career terrific -- terrifi