it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc headquarters here is your top five at 5:00. controversy in what has been a rocky rollout for the astrazeneca covid-19 vaccine a key fed head speaking out over the u.s. recovery and the long road ahead to get to where we were pre-pandemic. president biden reportedly ready to concede over his calls for a 28% corporate tax rate the chief executive at credit suisse reportedly getting

an earful from the bankers amid the scandals and outspoken peter thiel at it again. this time targeting google and what he sees as questionable ties to china. it's thursday, april 8th, 2021 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc ♪ good morning i'm dominic chu. here is how stock futures are looking for thursday morning after coming from the muted wall street on thursday with a fresh record close investors are holdingid the sead

thanks to the recession, we will see strong growth rates to kickoff the year the first quarter will be the strongest quarter for the earnings growth with earnings expected to rise 24% as you can see here expected earnings will be the st strongest quarter since the third quarter. q 2 number with a 54% jump q 2 would be the highest in more than a decade since the first quarter of 2010. as for the full year, 2021 expected earnings growth of 26% is the second strongest earnings growth since 2000. on a sector basis, more than half of the s&p will see sectors exceeding q1 levels. those six sectors are consumer

staples and health care and utilities. two sectors are expecting negative in the first quarter and that is industrial and energy around the world, a mostly higher session in asia hong kong and australia jumped more than 1% you see just about flat for the shanghai and 1% gain for hang seng let's look at europe early in the trading day about .50% for the cac and france .25% for the ftse. and at home, a busy day as president biden adds a new item to the agenda and continuing to sell the infrastructure plan to his own party and beyond as well tracie potts is joining us from washington, d.c. with the latest there. good morning, tracie >> reporter: dom, good morning he is taking up gun control again.

a big push since the shootings in atlanta, colorado and california a senior administration official tells us what the president will announce today is a first step the white house is announcing six executive actions on guns. president biden will talk more about them today they direct the justice department to restrict homemade weapons known as ghost guns and restrict pistols into rifles and draft state red flag laws. allowing relatives and police. >> keep guns out of the hands of people who shouldn't own them. >> reporter: and nominate former atf agent david shipman to hold the agency who had a position

the last 2 of 15 years the heavy lifting is up to congress two laws require universal background checks. >> i'm not interested in taking away the second amendment rights. >> this is not about getting red of rid of the second amendment. >> reporter: president biden is urging congress to act >> it will happen again. >> reporter: the question is when the question is also how democrat joe manchin saying in a new washington post op-ed he will not vote to weaken or restrict the filibuster that requires the parties to work together, dom. ten republicans have to sign on with every single democrat to get anything done. >> interesting dynamic developing in washington tracie potts in washington, d.c., thank you very much.

sticking with the beltway and the economic agenda. reuters is reporting after interviewing a dozen corporate and white house officials involved in the infrastructure push, most expect the president to compromise on the 25% corporate rate tax that is down from 28%. from the report, one energy lobbyist saying we don't like it, but we would consider that a win. amazon's union vote in alabama had a turnout of 55% now a public vote tally is expected to begin as early as today. 3,200 mail ballots were received by the union labor relations board. federal reserve governor speaking out on the uneven u.s. economic recovery. tells closing bell yesterday we are still far from where we need

to be. >> the outlook has brightened considerably our monetary policy is outcomes, not outlook. it is going to be some time before both employment and inflation have achieved the kinds of outcomes are in that forward guidance >> brainard adding with more than 9 million jobs short before we were pandemic and the reduced participation rate, unemployment looks more like 9% than the 6% we see around the jobs report. futures are ticking higher with the s&p finishing with another record close joining me is invesco head matt brill. matt, you heard governor brainerd's economics with the

recovery we are seeing an interesting dynamic playing out. what should be growth lying ahead. where is the disconnect with the markets and economy right now? >> good morning, dom you heard from the fed yesterday. we read through the notes. previously they stated that they are not even talking about talking about raising rates. that is what they reiterated in the notes. they will not raise rates any time soon. they are telling you they need to see the economy improve before they consider tapering. we have a long way to go in that record. >> with that, on the short-term interest rates and the long-term rates creep higher, does that mean we are in the scenario where the economy is forecasted to be better and we will see growth ahead and the yield curve st steepening is constructive with the banks and credit economy

>> that is our general take. we like the steepenor. the fed will not move through 2023 they reiterated that through the notes yesterday. they are buying $120 billion of fixed income per month they are not tapering off that with that, rates will likely be going higher, but limited in how much they can go higher. >> what is playing out with regard to corporate credit matt, we brought up the notion of relative and that's always a word the markets love. we are seeing a continued move lower and prices for corporate credit on the investment grade and mutual funds and etfs with outflows what is driving that besides the interest rates moving higher on the treasury side of things? >> it has been almost exclusively because of interest rates. credit spreads are flat on the

year we are seeing overall a really tough quarter. minus 4.5% for corporate credit for the first quarter of the year and the second worst quarter in history. you have seen some stabilities on that. we are not seeing retail step back in. pension plan rebalancing and forward looks to europe and asia are helping the market. >> there are things in the credit market that scare you and give you pause or worry given what we have seen with the interest rates does it feel like the markets are at a pause moment? >> we are not scared about fundamentals i have fears about the economy overheating this summer. i don't think it is a long-term thing. you will see inflation pick up with that, you have concerns

that the market will have a few panic days for sure. overall trends for corporate credit are good. c corporations are paying down debt companies will borrow less money in 2021 versus 2020. the fundamentals are in place for the corporate market the volatility is remaining. >> matt brill, thank you. when we come back, more headaches for astrazeneca and the covid vaccine rollout. a live report from london next. and the first new airlines in more than 15 years. and small business speaks out on the u.s. recovery and what more needs to be done a busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns after this break

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's get a check of the stock movers of the morning. costco says sales rose 18% in march. same-store sales up 16% with almost 14% rise in the u.s online sales jumping 58% costco benefitted from stockpiling during the pandemic. costs increased. shares up one-third of 1% in pre-market. twitter considered buying c c clubhouse for $4 billion

the talks have stalled clubhouse is exploring ways to get funding. clubhouse launched last year and has 10 million active weekly users. twitter shares up in the pre-market trade. tesla refunded customers it charged twice when it bought a new vehicle at the end of the first quarter. it follows reporting by cnbc and review who urged buyers use a cashier check. customers who spoke with cnbc say refunds took about a week after the complaint. tesla shares trying to bounce back from the down day yesterday. still on deck, peter thiel taking aim a google over what he sees as questionable ties to china. >> announcer: today's big number 56 million

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hit the pre-pandemic highs with the 32% of the small businesses reporting they closed. let's bring in the executive director heof the round table john, thank you for joining us how bad is it for small business right now? >> i think we lost his audio for a second there all right. we'll try to get him back. let's get a check of the other top headlines. nbc's phillip mena is in new york >> dom, good morning mixed signs of hope and concern this morning in the fight against covid. the cdc says 1 in 4 adults in the u.s. is now fully vaccinated nearly 110 million people have received at least one dose despite that, cases and hospitalizations are on the rise los angeles county sheriff's office announced details in the

crash involving tiger woods. investigators say the golf great was driving in a residential neighborhood going 84-to-87 miles an hour. double the speed limit when he lost control he struck a tree at 75 miles an hour sending the suv airborne. he never hit the brakes. it is believed he accidentally hit the accelerate or instead o the breake pedal. amanda gorman is the first poet to ever appear on the cover of vogue magazine. that's the latest from here, dom. back to you. >> thank you for the headlines. let's get back to john stanford the executive director of the small business round table john stanford, can you hear me now?

>> thanks for having me on >> let's get back to the question i'm curious, john, we know that small businesses are hurting right now. just how bad is it >> it continues to be a painful time for america's small businesses in our research with facebook to really get our updated sense of how things are going we are seeing multiple conclusions. the first one is it is still challenging out there. we see closure rates of small businesses north of 30% in some states that gets to the second conclusion we are seeing different things in different states. we are seeing closure rates in states as low as 9%. we are seeing in other states, closure rates as high as 30% the take away is things are very challenging. it only gets worse for minority-owned and women-owned businesse businesses >> john, what is the reasoning behind that? we see the economy, we know it's

bad, but getting better. the trajectory is playing out positively in other parts of america. what is it about the small business environment that makes it that much more difficult for them than other parts of the economy? >> i think we have a few el elements at play small businesses benefit from retail and foot traffic it has been towndown for a year. some needed six months of a good and open economy to get back in shape. of course, that time hasn't come to pass. we also see that small businesses are really frontline defense for the business community. they feel impacts first and they stay the longest larger companies with larger capital reserves may be doing okay small businesses, you know, they can't just take the risk to stay open i think we're seeing that play out with high numbers. they are not ready to jump back into it.

that's very concerning. >> how critical was it this notion, we now as a nation, have thrown trillions of dollars at the u.s. economy. a lot of that money has gone to small businesses two rounds of ppe loans and unemployment assistance. pandemic assistance in various forms. how critical was that for the small business environment in the u.s. over the last 12 months >> we found it was instrumental. i think we would be facing a calamity of unproportion if those have not been there. the ppe and the program discussed a lot is a bridge program. it was meant to keep people on the payroll. it wasn't meant necessarily to keep businesses open another compelling finding from the research is some of the challenges around work force i'm pretty worried about small businesses picking up hiring when they do open because 27% of

small businesses reduced their work force and more than half are not sure they will re-hire everyone they had to let go. ppe and others helped get us through really a shutdown of the year's economy i think we have a tough road ahead. >> we have a few moments left, john, before we let you go what will get small businesses comfortable again and perhaps about their trends going forward? >> entrepreneurs are survivors we reopen the economy. we reopen states when things get back to normal, we are coming back in a fast way. until then, the restaurants program and venues program, all of these will make a difference. when life picks back up in a few minutes hemonths here, you will see small business pick up >> good luck to all of the small businesses john, thank you. >> thanks for having me. straight ahead on the show,

the top boss at credit suisse fielding questions with few answers amid the latest scandal. if you have not done so, subscribe to our "worldwe id exchange" podcast. we'll be right back after this

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fresh questions about the treatment. we are live in london with the latest there peter thiel sounding off on the two of the tech sectors titans what he is serving up on apple and google over the ties to china. as the airline industry is creeping back to life. phil lebeau is filling in on the details giving you a new option in the friendly skies. it is thursday, april 8th, 2021. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc ♪ big old jet ♪ ♪ airliner ♪ ♪ don't carry me ♪ ♪ too far away ♪ ♪ oh, big old jet ♪ ♪ airliner ♪ i'm dominic chu. you see the dow implied higher by four points s&p 500 implied higher by 11 points

nasdaq is real signs of life up 94 points implied at the opening bell if the futures hold into the regular cash equity trading. yesterday, s&p hit a record close. you see there the cboe volatility index is lower here the wild swing abating for the time being not to be left out, the dow transportation index hot streak continues on pace for the longest weekly winning streak since 1989 the names you need to know in record territory right now facebook, microsoft, alphabet, mcdonald's, stanley black & decker all-time highs in the last few days waste management and sherwin-williams at record highs. all of this as investors await

the start of earnings season kicking off with the big banks delta and bed, bath & beyond coming out the first quarter should be the strongest since the third quarter of 2018 with the earnings expected to rise 24% year over year as for the full year, 2021 expected earnings growth of 26% would be the second strongest annual earnings growth since 2000 the best annual growth since 2010 some big moves expected. let's get to the developing story with the astrazeneca oxford university covid vaccine and questions of possible blood clots. juliana tatelbaum is standing by in london with more on the developments good morning, juliana. >> reporter: dom, good morning yesterday was a big day for the astrazeneca oxford vaccine

the uk and the eu medical rem regulators held press conferences where they delivered conclusions after the possible links with astrazeneca and a rare number of blood clots here is what they found. starting in europe, european medicine agency concluded there is a possible link between the vaccine and the very rare cases of blood clots 86 cases reported. 18 were fatal. out of 25 million people who received the vaccine because they were not able to identify or confirm risk factors, ema stopped short of restricting use of the vaccine it was slightly different in the uk let's tell you what we heard yesterday. similar messaging here the regulator said there is

mounting evidence of a link between the vaccine and the cases of rare blood clots. they say the benefits continue to outweigh the risks for the vast majority of people. those under the age of 30 should seek alternative vaccine when one is available this is not due to specific safety concerns, but rather out of caution the uk prime minister insists it will not derail the rollout. it means they have to rely on pfizer and moderna for now for the younger age group. and down the line, on johnson & johnson and novavax should those be approved in the uk. dom. >> we have a positive trajectory with the rollout here. how long will it be before we can see a widespread distribution for vaccines that can target just about everybody who wants to get one in the

united kingdom >> reporter: here in the uk, the vaccine rollout has been billed as a key success of the u.s. government and boris johnson saying we will be on track still to provide every adult who wants one, a vaccine by the end of july as i mentioned, this does put more reliance on the pfizer and moderna vaccines coming through from the supply perspective. it puts more price on the nhs which has been operating on the basis of offering any vaccine to any person now because of the guidance, they have to reserve those doses for the younger crowd and give the astrazeneca vaccine to those above 30 years old a different story in the eu. in terms of the countries and reaction to the ema decision yesterday, it hasn't been a unified response we have the italian health

authority and spain limiting the vaccine to those aged 30 and above. here in the uk, we are trstickig to th to the timeline in july. thank you. the ceo of credit suisse is facing criticism from within his bank over the archegos meltdown. according to the bloomberg report, thomas gottstein meet with the cleaders on tuesday the exposure and risk profile was assessed and why it may lose more than the rival banks. peter thiel spoke out yesterday slamming the work on the artificial intelligence with

the chinese. he said company insiders told him they are working with the chinese government or chinese authorities because they figured they might as well give the technology out the front door because if they didn't give it, it won't get stolen anyway on apple, thiel said the company was unlikely to confront china because of the supply chain. two targets for thiel. sticking with technology in china. the commerce committee is holding a bill and taking on beijing on that secretor. the measure in a bid to address competition with china we have been telling you about air travel returning in the u.s. now a new airline is entering a market phil lebeau has the story.

>> good morning, dom a long time since we have seen a full mainline airliner not a regional a main line airline here in the united states. say hello to avelo avelo is the first full airline to be started in the u.s. since 2007 it will be based in burbank, california what is the flight plan here they will target leisure travelers. eugene, oregon, ogden, utah. serving the under served markets. the ceo says that's the key and making sure they can meet what he says as growing demand. >> we all believe that we see light at the end of the tunnel it's coming soon we stand in a great place to get started here and especially be up and running for the summer peak season. it should be good.

>> what kind of demand are we see ing for airline travel in the united states? are you looyou are looking at levels down 30% down from pre-pandemic levels. dom, it was down 60% at one time one reason why the airline index is higher is most of the carriers -- a good portion of the carriers -- have gone to cash flow break even they believe they can sustain that now they are seeing regular increase in demand in terms of people flying here in the united states dom dom, avelo is the newest based in burbank andrew levy, the ceo, among the first starting up allegiant. a lot of people are saying what are they doing

rockford, illinois to orlando. this is never going to work. it worked. it worked well he thinks they can duplicate that with avelo. >> phil, we have to figure out when they fly to north bend, oregon so we can take our golf trip. >> they are going into bend. >> further away there. they have to get to the coast. phil, the airline industry over the last four to five decades has been one with scale as the key component to success a lot of consolidation mid level carriers have been bought up over the years how important is it to get a scale or is it tough to compete with southwest and delta >> it is tough to compete with the big boys with you are trying to fly in the hubs they are flying into grand

junction, colorado they believe there are enough people who are tired of having to drive to denver international or take a regional flight. they prefer to fly out of grand junction there are pockets around the country of the under market they have a chance to succeed. southwest, spirit, they can offer as many flights. they have can't do that right now. they believe they can pick off the travelers and steadily grow the business. >> a low point for the airline travel industry. phil, thank you very much. we appreciate it coming up on the how the future of fitness in a post-pandemic world. we talk to one ceo looking to workout from the gym to working out in your living room. and as we head to break.

robin hood did not report trade issues on the fractional shares according to the reuters report. the brokerage has been adding to the revolving credit lines ahead of the anticipated ipo. and closing in on the $8 billion deal hitachi metals. the potential deal is the latest sign of rising global private equity interest in japanese groups and instacart and doordash planning to launch their own credit cards jpmorgan chase will offer that credit card and is bidding for orsh cdica as well those are the top headlines. back in a moment came to every part of our universe. seismic or small, it continues. change is all around us.

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age before beauty? why not both? visibly diminish wrinkled skin in... crepe corrector lotion... only from gold bond. welcome back the pandemic forced gym closures across the country and peloton and mirror and apple fitness suffer surged in popularity joining us now is rici mendell the ceo of the apple app which pairs individuals with coaches take us through the model. what exactly is it about stay at home fitness

>> dominic, thank you. to understand the history of fitness means you only need to know one number. 80% of americans don't exercise enough the history of fitness is picking up new content devices every year we fail at huge rates. by pairing you with a coach, we give you an apple watch so you can see the activity and keep you accountable. what we have done is drive a mechanism for accountability that is where we see great returns. >> rishi, when you say pair up with coachesm you are not just pairing me up with any coach

top-tier college strength and conditioning coach what is the driving force and what is the pricey ha i have toy for it >> right what we have been doing is over the last several years is amassing talent. we have been going through the top tier professional sports teams and leagues and ncaa programs and hiring the best of the best trainers and strength coaches to the staff all of our coaches are employees of the business. when you become a member at future, we pair you with one of the great coaches. like i said, they are connected to you 24/7 through text and app. what we find is that what great coaches do is they not only build you an ever flexible program. i incorporate outside and in the gym. they can drive accountability and keep you consistent.

that is what we have been doing. we have seen explosive success >> what exactly will it cost >> it will cost you the price of one session in person. to see one of the people in person is $150 per session future is $150 a month >> the trends here this is a hot market right now how has the fund raising effort been going what are the aspirations you worked at google before. you have done a lot of work with regard to the initiatives there. you take a look at the tech landscape and tell us if you think going public right now is a tougher task for whether or not the spac boom is something you are paying attention to right now? >> paying attention to it. i think, frankly, it is healthy for companies to get out earlier in the life cycle. i think companies have tended to stay private quite long.

now we have seen the ability to get a broad base of investors and plan for the long term our company is younger a few years old. we recently did a big financing for us we are seeing, like you said, a huge trajectory and a lot of people who are rethinking how they approach fitness. you know, there is more on the horizon. >> at-home connected fitness rishi, thank you >> great to be here. on deck for the show futures on the rise as the s&p looks to push into record territory. our market panel lays out the catalyst tkeo ep the market moving to the upside we're back in a moment only nature's bounty does. new immune twenty-four hour plus has longer lasting vitamin c. plus, herbal and other immune superstars. only from nature's bounty.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." futures indicating a stable and

positive open here s&p implied higher by 12 points at this stage. some of the key market themes to watch. interest rates driving a huge market conversation over the past several months here ten-year treasury yield is moving to the down side this morning. coming off the highest levels in over a year. 1.65% is the last trade there. some of the highest levels in over a year. check out growth versus value. another theme developing over the last year, you see the growthstocks out performed the gap is narrowing as of late. keep an eye on growth versus value. and the u.s. or elsewhere providing the best gains the white line is emerging markets. the fall of last year, we saw a trend higher for performance and emerging market stocks versus the s&p 500. just about the same over the year we will see if that plays out

again. let's bring in the panel to success. jeff, the chief investment strategy at 5th/3rd bank also with us is the senior portfolio manager at columbia thread needle investments. let's start with you here. let's talk about the notion that the markets right now are priced for perfection i heard it before. as a manager of money, are you worried about the current state of the market? >> i don't thanks for having me i think if we look at the minutes from the fed yesterday, we saw a dovish stance we saw growth for two or three years. inflation that is slightly above target we saw interest rates not rising

for three years. to answer your question, the background is really conducive to risk taking and all the indices on the board are reflecting how attractive conditions are for equity and risk taking at the moment. >> risk taking is positive right now. jeff, do you agree here? it feels like the markets have run quickly to the upside here is this a situation where i feel comfortable about investing in stocks and adding more money to positions? >> we, at 5th/3rd feel there is a mountain of cash and a favorable fed. all of that adds up to our thinking as a time when you need to own equity. there may, indeed, be toward the end of the year or early next year, there may be consolidation and concerns over the loss of

momentum you can't tfight this fed or th wave of the money in the economy or into the investment markets >> anwiti, as we look to the favorite parts of the market, i highlighted a couple of them in the segment before you guys came on the emerging markets and places outside the u.s. do better than the u.s. markets right now can we expect to see that performance continue >> yes, i 100% agree with the assessment that jeff had we also expect non-u.s. stocks to continue to outperform u.s. stocks in the one graph, they were neck

and neck and in the last graphic, they were catching up partly on the dollar strength. as the year progresses, we expect the dollar to be weakening again and international stocks to out perform u.s. stocks. >> anwiti, there are parts of the emerging market that you think are better positioned to do well as opposed to saying buying the basket in etf form? >> we favor emerging markets in the latin-american region at the moment they have most of the catch up to do if you look at performance versus the rest of the emerging market they are coming off a terrible covid environment. there is -- it's generally ignored for the last year or two and that's one area i think we will see catch up performance. >> all right jeff, as we talk about this

notion there are favorite parts of the market, we've talked about the idea that the big technology and communication stocks have been under performing in the last six months after out performing the last ten years do we see a resurgence or move back to big technology and comm technology services? >> this is a broad market where we will see most we continue to favor smid stocks and part of the rational here is this is a federal reserve that means what they are saying they want to reinflate prices. they want to keep rates very, very low which means the shortened of the curve is anchored we anticipate rising bond yields that stands in the way of the richly valued cap names. >> so when you say smid. small and midcap stocks. there are sectors that are ones you want to invest in?

>> the consumer will benefit here some of the industrial names and even the material names can benefit in this environment. >> okay. anwiti, we will give you the last word here the macro picture as you see it right now. you talk about the idea of constructive moves for risk assets there are things in your mind right now that you are paying the most attention to that could derail that upward thesis for risk asset going forward >> dom, theobvious one is the setback in covid vaccination either through new strains or something. that is a perennial risk to the markets. the second point is to deal with inflation. right now, markets very much think that that is the detail risk in the market if it comes in stronger and more

per pers persistent that the fed is anticipating. >> thank you that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. "squawk box" is coming up next see every delivery... every yikes... and even every awwwwwwww... wait, where was i? introducing self protection from xfinity. designed to put you in control. with real-time notifications and a week

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good morning dow futures are relatively flat. deja vu. nasdaq futures are set to jump at open. we will show you what is open right now. let the negotiations begin president biden is open to compromise as he spars with republicans over what should be included in the infrastructure and tax bill plus, a warning for employers.

new survey data shows 25% of workers plan to look for a new job as the economy reopens it's thursday, april 8th, 2021 "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm alyn b becky quick along wi kernen and andrew ross sorkin. s&p is up slightly this morning, you are looking at the s&p indicated up another 3 points dow has been up for, what is it? three of the last four sessions. dow has been up three mof the last four. nasdaq has been down two in a row. it is up