tv Power Lunch CNBC April 8, 2021 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
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welcome, everybody, to "power lunch" far thursday with morgan brennan, i'm tyler matheson if you build it will it pay off? will the president's infrastructure plan build jobs and what impact could tax increases have on corporate spendingsome we'll talk to the ceo about trimble about that cathy wood is snapping up shares. and why is the jobs market so tight right now we have heard lots of companies saying they're struggling to find workers where's the disconnect we'll explore that as "power lunch" starts right now. welcome to "power lunch. i'm morgan check the markets at this hour the s&p 500 did hit another record high today but the real action is in the nasdaq. new highs once again for some of
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the big tech names payment stocks also higher whether with an app or paypal, squar, mastercard and visa president biden continues to aggressively push the massive infrastructure plan saying yesterday the country must take bold action. all right. we wanted to break it down from two key angles kayla tausche working out how to pay for it and steve liesman answering will it help or hurt the economy? let's start with kayla >> morgan, treasury says it will fully fund the plan by raising $2.5 trillion in revenue over 15 years primarily by raising the corporate tax rate and a minimum tax for firms here and overseas. according to moody's, over ten years a 28% corporate tax to
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raise $900 billion a 21% global minimum tax to raise $670 billion a minimum tax for those u.s. companies that currently pay none would raise $141 billion and more frequent audits would raise $10 billion. but treasury declined to provide its internal estimates and there's discrepancy between the data and independent estimates treasury says rescinding the fossil fuel tax credits raises $35 billion whereas moody's calculated that almost double. biden said he is open to different revenue raisers but the administration also sees this package as a way to lower the share of taxes born by workers which have seen the share of federal tax revenue rising compared to corporations who have seen their share fall economists and trade groups argued if you do raise the corporate tax rate it is a job
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killer but the rate as recently four years ago 14% higher. >> let's follow up with a quick question if this is going to be roads and bridges and tunnels and transportation related why not raise the gas tax and put tolls on the roads newly built or refurbished? >> a couple reasons why the administration doesn't feel that that's the right move at least at this time number one, president biden made a pledge he would not raise taxes on any household or individual that makes less than $400,000 and things like a gas tax or a vehicle miles traveled tax are seen as potentially regressive instruments that would be adversely impacting those who are in the middle class or lower income americans. certainly the administration has come under fire for suggesting those types of instruments in the past and second they do believe that corporations will be benefiting from these
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investments, perhaps indirectly if not directly by being able to get the goods to consumers faster, the workers into the office faster. they believe that corporations will benefit just as much as those who are actually on the road every single day. >> kayla, it is wonderful to see the seasons change right behind you. kayla reporting from the d.c. area. >> spring has sprung. >> down there. they're a little bit ahead of us the debate doesn't end over how to pay for it. experts can't agree. steve liesman is looking boo the details here. >> head spin a little bit. two detailed studies with divergent estimates over how the plan would impact u.s. growth. moody's with a gdp of 2030 raising the level by 3.3%. penn wharton sees an almost 1% decline. moody's sees meaningful increase
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in growth, jobs and higher wages and higher productivity. penn wharton forecast fewer hours worked there's the effect of higher corporate taxes and the impact of government investment return on government investment at moody's seen as hitting an economy with lots of slack in it, each dollar adding to gdp. penn wharton don't see much of what we see a multiplier to government spending and crowding out, big effects of the government borrowing and reducing private investment. another economic and big political question, what's infrastructure penn wharton says a fifth of the plan is transfer payments not investment and model doesn't have return on the investment leading to a bigger question, how do you value social goods
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like helping the elderly or avoiding shutdowns of the grid these models may not fully capture those benefits folks? >> yeah. doesn't even take into account the fact of another bill or another proposal expected in the next couple weeks to focus on social infrastructure, as well i'm curious. starting to see the proposals or the comments made by republican lawmakers, for example, that they might get behund and be supportive of a skinnier bill. starting to see comments from some i guess the economists that we have looking at how many trillions of dollars we have sort of put out there in spending in the last year and the midst of the pandemic. essentially what is $2 trillion more right now is there an expectation of analysis about what this could look like deciding as a country not to at least right now make up the difference with something like a tax rate increase
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>> one of the big problems that penn wharton has with this plan if i understand your question correctly is the corporate tax way of paying for it. >> what happens if we didn't pay for it >> if we didn't pay for it it would be worse in the model i think and would be bad i asked about how to design a program like this so that your model spits out a value number and he said a value added tax. sees much less economic decline. i'll say this idea of how much crowding out really happens with the private sector, very controversial. penn wharton reduced the estimate of crowding out from the tax cuts from the trump presidency, a controversial figure anyway whether or not there's at low interest rates much crowding out at all. >> all right thanks for bringing us the latest >> thanks. meantime, trimble a
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software, hardware and services company could be a beneficiary of the infrastructure package. kay think woods seems to think so and purchased the shares of the company on ark innovation and it was the top holding with nearly 500,000 shares there and ark is reportedly adding to the positions so joining us now is trimble president and ceo rob painter. welcome to the show. >> hi, thank you for having me. >> so let's start with infrastructure you really sit at this intersection of the industrial economy and technology certainly that's an area been gaining some traction as we see greater adoption of the internet of things in the last couple of years. what are your expectations in terms of only an infrastructure package going through and into reality but what that would mean to benefit your company.
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>> this is a generational opportunity to do something about the aging infrastructure, increase the competitiveness of the country and create sustainable job growth this is a bold plan and had false starts on infrastructure over the last few years but this one seems to have a good shot at getting passed i heard you in the last segment talking about this the plan does address highways, roads, ports, airports and water infrastructure good for the country and yes that can be good for trimble, as well we are in the business of diagnosticizing the end market such as construction, agriculture and transportation and we believe we can bring significant productivity to the work. >> we talk about digitizing the end markets? what is an example how does that cut down on cost with multi-billion dollar infrastructure projects around the country? >> so if you -- when you use our
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constructible design and technology we have higher accuracy and minimizing rework or eliminating we work and delivers projects on time and on budget same time that's reducing millions of metric tons of green house gas emissions. >> the fact that you are the top holding in cathy woods' newark space exploration etf i wonder what you think about that. i realize that your company started in gps and certainly you do get some data, do do some geo spatial work and thanks to satellites in orbit but should investors think about you as a space company, aswell? >> we certainly appreciate the vote of confidence the thematic across her funds are around disruptive innovation and that's very much in the sweet spot of trimble. we are not new at this we have been around for 42 years. to build the business that we
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have today. >> i'm always interested in ceos who have taken on a job at the beginning of a tough time and you come on in january of 2020 how has the last year been what have your biggest learnings been >> yeah. not sure a pandemic was in the job brochure for the new ceo but it's very much about a we. i'm so proud of the company and how we responded i think we have got the right strategy, the right people, the right markets, the right technologies so as long as you lead with intention, lead with purpose, doing the right things for the people and the customers good things will happen and yes. last year we exceeded the exec taegss throughout the year in january we joined the s&p 500. i think that's a sign that we have arrived. >> yeah. speaking of the pandemic, a thing we heard from so many different companies across the different industries is the
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rapid acceleration of technology and digitization what have you seen and where has the fastest growth, the adomgs of those applications been >> we have seen some of the fastest growth in the agriculture business as well as in all of our construction businesses and we absolutely see a drive towards digitization we have been going after this for decades now and so we can see firsthand just how much this is accelerating, the enabling technology cloud technology is a big factor we are in the business, too, of connecting the office and the field and the physical and digital worlds and so this is just increasing more and more. >> rob painter, thank you for joining us. >> you bet thank you for having me. coming up, the markets at record highs with earnings season coming up soon and no guidance will no longer be
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essentially at a new high. s&p 500 as i mentioned new high there and nasdaq 2%. the nasdaq hit the highs in february when interest rates started to move up but that's starting to fade here's what's important, number one,powell talking about an incomplete recovery. tax hike fears diminishing and earnings season upon us expecting better guidance. no more claiming we can't have visibility that's not going to work that they want to hear positive comments from the ceos about how the reopening is affecting the profits and expecting them to sound bullish and the analysts to start raising numbers aggressively earnings season will be much more interesting and why investor sentiment is euphoric notice how the interest rates have stopped creeping up and as that's happening we have seen the growth oriented sectors like technology, consumer
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discretionary come back to the fore in the last week or so and the value sectors like energy and banks not down big but sputtering more. a lot will depend on the interest rate scenario and will get some inflation numbers tomorrow to keep an eye on that. keep an eye on the mega cap tech stocks these all got clobbered in february, early part of march on the higher interest rates concern. finally, a note of the old high growth favorites which also got clobbered. they're not back at new highs but they are inching back and a ways to go and a very good week for those uber growth names. tyler, back to you. >> thank you very much. the next guest to doesed on this earnings season saying q1 results are important but guidance is key. let's bring in leigh ann
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sanders. welcome. good to have you with us. >> thank you. >> let's talk through the earnings season that's coming up what will be the telltales for you? what are you looking for what are you looking to hear and not hear >> yeah. i would almost put air quotes around the guidance piece of it because i'm not sure we're going to see a significant surge in companies that re-up precise quarterly guidance, even pre-pandemic we were on a trend to companies moving away from quarterly guidance with specificity to analysts and probably a right thing but just in general the outlook for the business into the latter part of this year and then to look and see what analyst reactions are in the absence of guidance last year aerred on the side of
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lowering the bar and fourth quarter we moved into positive territory year over year i think 25% is a consensus for q1 50% for q2 and start to get a sense of whether those are valid numbers and that's the plug into the forward pe so i think it's an important tell. >> let's talk about the fed and what it is likely to do or more precisely maybe not do how do you interpret where the fed is right now and certainly, jeremy siegel in the last hour or so he said he interprets the fed as the dovish fed chairman he's ever seen. >> i think that's pretty valid i have to think that if his predecessor now treasury secretary yellen were in the same position and given some of her comments made now as treasury secretary i think we would have a dovish fed regardless of who was at the
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helm, a function of the change to the mandate, the inflation mandate, an average, saying they're willing to let it run hot but also interestingly and less focused on is the more subtle adjustment made to the employment side of the mandate and powell is vocal about in talking about it is not just a decline in the unemployment rate to be looking for before tightening policy but breadth and equality and want to see that a pickup in the labor market and lessening slack in the labor market is broad in terms of industries and income levels and not just the unemployment rate that's a factor and changing to both mandates are key to think about how the fed will react in the next year. >> such an important shift to note there, liz ann. i'm looking at the notes from you and something really jumped out and that's what you had to say about ism manufacturing readings with strong data as of
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late why what does that signal how do you see it? >> i actually amy going to use the chart of that in a presentation and it's -- the title is be careful what you wish for and as much as the stock market tends to bounce off its bear market lows well in advance of economic data improving, we saw that 14 months ago in march, but you have to be mindful of extremely positive economic news and the point at which it's already priced into the market so if you go back to 1948, the history we have on ism manufacturing and break it into the headline reading the worst performance for the market has come in the highest desil and we are in that decile now conversely the lowest decile have been followed and a
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six-month later look ahead had the best return so you really just have to understand the nature of leading indicators versus lagging and the impact on the stock. >> great as always to see you. >> thank you you, too. >> liz ann saunders of schwab. constellation brands waking up with a hangover that and more in the power movers. plus with the country reopening should mean people back to work but a restaurant said they can't find workers. >> we are struggling from an employee base. people don't go and try to get jobs they're still in the unemployment and looking at the unemployment numbers but people don't want do go to work. >> are we in a tight labor rkmaet we'll debate that ahead on "power lunch." everywhere. we emit optimism, not exhaust. we plug in our vehicles as naturally
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watchers lower after a downgrade citing the company's valuation stock is still up about 25% for the year despite being under pressure down 4% right now canopy growth down 4% buying supreme cannabis for $435 million. that deal will boost the presence in the canadian recreational market. tyler? >> a lot of money floating around there. >> cannabis consolidation. >> absolutely. ahead on "power lunch," u.s. job openings hitting a two-year high but millions of people are still out of work. what is the real state of the job market right now plus dow transports up nearly 20% for the year. can they keep on trucking? all this a me enpor ndorwh "we lunch" returns with all-wheel drive. this rain is bananas. lease the 2021 es 250 all-wheel drive for $339 a month for 39 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.
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welcome back i'm rahel solomon. the latest numbers are posted by the cdc today, expected to show more than one quarter of the adult population is fully vaccinated brazil temporary hospitals like this one don't have enough beds or medicine as cases surge and doctors are saying they're seeing more people under 30
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getting covid. the daily death toll topped 4,000 for the first time and despite if brazil president said there will be no national lockdown. a wall near the british parliament is covered with 150,000 hearts it's the expected death toll in the uk organized by a group calling for the investigation into how they handled the pandemic i'll send it back to you. >> thank you. major averages mostly higher the dow up about 10 points and basically flat the s&p is up hitting another record intraday high in the session today and the outperformer is the nasdaq up about 1% as tech stocks lead the way higher >> for a change. tech is back. a blowout jobs report from march showing 219,000 new jobs
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were added but there's a growing problem under the positive numbers and that would be a shortage of workers. here's what tillman fertitta said last week. >> we are struggling from an employee base because what's happened is if you take the normal, i use an average of 250 a week unemployment and you add $300 to it, hourly employees don't want to come to work right now, a certain percentage of them the way our whole capitalism works we operate and li off the hourly employees and seeing bonuses being paid now i have restaurants paying bonuses for hourly employees because there's a shortage right now. >> joining me now to discuss the market is billion rogers of rutgers university and ryan born
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the chair for the public understanding of economics at the kato institute and author of "economics in one virus. bill and ryan, welcome bill, is tilman right? is the reason some companies like his in the hospitality is that people don't want to come off unemployment >> his experience i don't want to deny his reality and i think it's real. i'm sure there are other companies or businesses out there facing this challenge. but you have to remember we are in the midst of a pandemic and this pandemic has led to anxiety and depression rates north of 20% according to u.s. census poll survey so, yes, i teach that theory. if you raise nonlabor income that raises the reservation wage to have higher offers to come
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back so again his reality is very real and a strong reality that people are very nervous about staying healthy. >> ryan, bill points to a complex, a matrix of factors to affect why people don't come back to work or why tilman is having trouble fillings openings in his business. as you would rank -- i assume you say the same thing and not just one item to cause people to stay away but to rank the various things that keep people from coming back in the workforce what would they be >> i think there's two complimentary things there's fear of unvaccinated people, would be workers of catching the virus but then combined with that obviously you have the very high elevated unemployment insurance benefits at the moment as was mentioned over a supplement of $300 a week what we are talking about there
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is 37% of the current workforce would be better off out of work than in work as a result of the generosity of those benefits we are starting to see evidence as the economy reopens that's a problem. the national association of independent businesses has its highest ever level of businesses at 42% who are saying they're completely unable to fill particular roles and just before this american rescue plan was passed a couple days beforehand becoming clear it's a provision there's a big noticeable drop in searching on google for job search so i think this is a problem now and much more of a problem now that the economy is reopening than last year even though last year the benefit levels were higher still. >> tyler, can i jump in quickly? the other story out there that's really important that i would
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put a -- tie with the first idea of people being concerned about safely and workforce and that's child care this recession or downturn is called a she-session and it was largely due to women leaving the labor force. so that's another very, very important and strong reason why we're still having challenges here >> yeah. so, ryan, whether it's the child care situation, the unemployment insurance situation, whether it is folks not vaccinated and arer in rous to go back out and work outside of the homes right now, what is the trajectory how long will it take to see some of that slack that exists because of the dynamics to
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whatever degree to actually normalize and in the meantime what does that do to wage pressure >> yeah. that's a great question. even continuing the momentum of the jobs report it takes 14 months to get back to where we would have been absent this crisis and the particular kind of pressures are really concentrated in low wage industries so in terms of the fall in the employment rate relative to where we were last january i think in terms of jobs with less than $27,000 per year wages the effect on unemployment is three times as heavy relative to middle income jobs and high income jobs recovered so the broad story to see here is a gradual reopening of many of those low wage service sector industries, leisure, hospitality, entertainment as
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they reopen there's an initial supply pressures for the reasons we talked about. those businesses are having to raise wages. some of them can't raise wages enough to hire people profitably and see wage pressure in the industries feeding through into higher prices but eventually things will normalize and that's why i think it was a big mistake to extend these uplifts in unemployment benefits through to september when it was pretty clear getting the vaccination rates going we could open sooner than that. >> bill, let me follow up on what ryan was pointing to and i believe he said earlier with 35% of the total workforce making more and ryan, correct me if i'm wrong there, working more by not working than working you have a problem there, don't you >> well, we got a bigger problem. the bigger problem is a pandemic the pandemic makes the great
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recession look pretty tame it took us two, three years for us to see an unemployment rate that was close to 10%. took us basically several months or a month or two to surpass that so i am in the feeling to err on the side of caution and making -- let's make sure we address this problem before we assume we'll get back to where we were and once we get back to where we were, say last february, we were at a point where people about 30% to 40% of american households had said they had a trouble paying $400 unexpected bill so we have to strive for even better than last february. >> it is an interesting time i guess the good news is the economy is reopening the good news is that businesses are hiring and that is in the end a good thing for the labor market bill, ryan, thank you.
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>> thank you. >> thank you. let's get to the bond market rick is tracking the action at the cme. >> indeed. we had an important set of data points today an initial and continuing claims and many expected to be under 700,000 and make progress on both of those. we didn't but what's fascinating, look at a dintraday chart and yields propped up aggressively and a big tell because we are all talking about how rates eased back but we are an important numbers away from it popping right back and anything to do with employment and hiring and firing of course that is in the center lane and if you look at a mid-march chart of 10-year note yields we are staircased lower 161 there to the left, that is the low close to pay attention to for support and when you throw in the dollar index it
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shouldn't shock anybody that they track close and see the dollar index tracking downwards in a slow melting fashion and finally the banking index kbw, a 20-year chart. won't find a higher close than right now and that's key considering what banks are considered to be undervalued still and the index follows interest rates morgan, back the you. >> rick, thank you. up next, three other stories you might have missed. a rocket race, a new ginamg chair and memorabilia. "power lunch" is back in two
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welcome back small launch startup rocket lab attempting to bring a rocket back from space using parachutes to slow the booster for an ocean slashdown and the mission for next month will deploy two satellites for black sky and mark another key step to making the company's electron the first reusable orbital small rocket.
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within of six currently in that process of merging with an spak as investors take to space and including cathy woods' newark space exploration edf and i would note is -- rocket lab is not a part of. rocket lab will be under rklb and as you can see up a little bit right now. >> a lot of action in that market, too. we were talking about the pot stocks but in space there's a tremendous amount of activity. >> rocket lab is an elite few among the rocket makers alongside spacex that's already regularly doing the missions to orbit right now and if and when they're successful in these missions to start reusing their boosters they'll be only the second commercial company behind spacex to do that. let's talk about gamestop. right on cue.
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>> never gets old. >> the game never stops at gamestop follow the reddit rebellion, the company naming a new chairman, the activist investor ryan cohen and the face behind the volatility at gaems investing in the company last year to push the retailer to focus on online sales and this guy working from the inside out and now the new ceo. i guess that was inevitable. >> new chairman and i think that was inevitable and we talk about the short squeeze and the reddit rebellion but a lot of that sparked by the fact that cohen was involved and a massive stake and seen as somebody who could really turn it around. >> yeah. >> exactly it is interesting to see it is under pressure now down 4%. we have heard about big money spent for collectibles physical and now virtual this week a comic book the first
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appearance over superman told for $3.25 million and tom brady rookie card autographed sold for $2.2 million makes sense to me. but check this out a letter written by babe ruth and written to a mistress and basically telling nell his wife is on to them and he can meet her at a hotel monday and signed babe and then underneath the signature, don't call me it sold for $200,000 little surprised i thought it would have gone for more. >> you don't want to write this stuff down. >> not just his wife looking over his shoulder but the club, as well. >> oh yeah >> the thing with the ladies. >> a thing all right. >> there you go. transports a stronger market tent poles this year but can they remain on track
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the dow jones transportation index -- transportation average touching a record high on monday, down slightly since then but our next guest does see continued strength ahead the transports driving more than 12%. shipping capacity is far shot of demand donald broton keeps a close eye on global freight trends and he joins us now hello. >> hello, morgan, good afternoon. >> so what are the freight trends telling you right now >> they're telling us we're seeing an economy both domestically as well as globally that is just accelerating in every single pocket you can imagine, from the tech side, the semi conductors, down to the most basic industrials and everything in between. we're seeing a real acceleration beyond the obvious, the e-commerce volumes, et cetera. >> it's interesting. there's been a lot of focus on the gridlock we saw last week in the suez canal, the fact we've seen incredible port congestion particularly on the west coast
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in general for a few months now. the parts of the freight economy, i think about intermodal, for example, that is very consumer facing what can be gleaned from there in terms of this economic recovery and how it speaks to the health or recovering health of the consumer? >> you and i have talked about this for many years now. we have a retail sales risk indicator that we have developed. what we do is basically look at all of that activity and say our retail sales in the coming months going to exceed expectations or fall short, disappoint right now it is signaling that the potential for retail sales in coming months to exceed expectations is at record high levels that is why? because it's looking at all those volumes that all of those buyers for all those retailers have ordered and assessing that someone is making some awfully big bets that the retail sales are going to be stronger. >> we've been talking a lot in
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the last few weeks about bottlenecks in the supply chain and obviously the thing in the suez canal was one of them are those long-term problems for transports and the shipping companies? or once they clear, is it really literally just a short-term issue for them >> that's a great question, tyler. it is a temporal issue and here's why two basic reasons. one is, is i can tell you when i got out of undergrad and was cutting my teeth learning how to audit freight bills sitting in a little cube on the side of a manufacturing plant, supply chain management, distribution management was not a profession, certainly not what it is today you have a much higher grade of talent being put into that function and a much higher skill set, education, et cetera. plus they have an extraordinarily ever expanding
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information about not only where it is and not only their own inventory but their suppliers' inventories and customers' inventories. so it's light years ahead of where it was a couple of decades ago. they'll manage through the suez canal being clogged and do so pretty deft ly we saw global supply chains react within days. what were monumental downdrafts were adjusted for and we're seeing the exact same on the upturn. >> so, donald, what names do you like right now >> still continue to be big fans of companies like xpo and fedex. e-commerce is going to be in 2025, e-commerce volumes in the u.s. are going to be triple what they were in 2019. so i want companies that fulfill that function. fedex and xpo are two great
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examples they're entrepreneurial, they're global, and they're focused on that segment and focused on making it possible and are some of the most efficient and cost effective in providing this service, which means you get a mega trend like that and they're great providers of it and they're going to win. >> i think a lot of people are surprised to see some more m & a activity now with union pacific buying kansas city southern. i wonder what you think about that group and whether there's an existential threat to be had where truckers are concerned >> i don't see it as an existential threat i think what the ceo of canadian pacific is doing is it's obvious that he learned from his mentor, hunter harrison. i'm sure hunter is smiling down upon him and what is happening there. but that will not change the outcome of trucking whatsoever it will be a new, competitive force in railroads, but truckers
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have far more other issues to deal with. the small intermodal slice that the two of them dpcompete on, ts will be a nonfactor when everybody looks back five, ten years from now. >> of course we have to throw infrastructure into this too. >> absolutely. >> thanks for being with us. >> always a pleasure. more "power lunch" is next we are launching a new show on monday tune in for "tech check. they will cover all things chlotenogy we'll take a quick break we'll be right back. and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades.
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a fund that invests in the innovators of the nasdaq-100 like you become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq we have got about a minute before we hand it off to sara and wilf the markets are higher across the board with the nasdaq leading the way. there you see the gains. the dow industrials were down lower by 105 points earlier, now with a modest gain some of the tech stocks have been moving up big tech in particular bucking a trend. there you see microsoft, apple, amazon and google. >> yeah, you've seen a return in those big cap tech names one reason for that has been what we've seen playing out in the bond market as well. take a look at the 10-year treasury yields. it has come under pressure a little bit it's down 1.663% right now which
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is giving a lift to those tech names. also consumer discretionary names, tyler, and some of those reopening names getting a big bounce, whether it's the retailers, vegas tocasinos, crus lines. >> great as always being with you, morgan. >> back at you. >> thank you for watching "power lunch," everybody. "closing bell" starts right now. >> thank you, morgan and tyler welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen along with wilfred frost. another mixed session for stocks but the s&p 500 did hit a fresh record intraday high during the session an we are higher right now. the nasdaq leading the gains up about a percent as we head into this final hour of trade let's look at what's driving the action fed chair jay powell addressing inflation in a panel i hosted earlier for the imf saying in the most likely case, this period will show temporarily higher prices but not persistent inflation. we'll have much more of his dovish assurances from that pa
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