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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  April 9, 2021 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT

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morgan stanley, goldman sachs, going to be fascinating. >> hopefully yes, we'll get more color in terms of the outlook in terms of the capital markets activity and net interest can continue through the rest of the year. >> we look forward to that that does it for cloegt. h "closing bell" have a great weekend. "fast money" begins now. >> i'm in for melissa lee, this is "fast money." tonight's trader lineup guy adami, steve grasso, mcdonald and barbara ceo of win crest tonight on fast apple seeing its best week since january. names like facebook, al apple hit highs. is a buy now plus boeing taking max 737 out of commission on the heels of another production product
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we'll talk about what it means for the embattled planemaker and another bonus hour tonight the countdown of the trades of the week, tweet them to us as cnbc "fast money. let's start on wall street s&p with another record close, fourth of the week, that's the kinds of week it's been, leading the way, pvh, coach, tapestry, the rally coming in spite of higher than expected inflation data this morning. as we get ready for the start of q1 earnings season, jpmorgan, goldman sachs all set to report on wednesday what do we make of this late-day action guy, the market could have had every reason given the inflation number and did not finished about as strong as you could ask for. >> no question, scott. great having you here. listen, when i saw those numbers
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came out i thought ten year yield would trade north of 175 s&p would be down 30, 40 handles easy nasdaq probably down 1.5 to 2% and once again i'd be dead wrong. those numbers were hot market didn't care yields didn't move by noon the markets gleaned that, if the bond doesn't care it's all systems go in terms o the broader market doesn't have to make sense, you trade the market the one you want. >> yeah, barbara anne that's the story, the market had every reason to go down, it did not, what's it signal what lies ahead with the week ahead with earnings kick off. >> i characterize this market as all greed and no fear. that inflation number matters because inflation is the invsalignible tax, nobody escapes it and the idea is to monetize the inflation an the smart money does and do so by going on commodities
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lumber is up 249% year-over-year cattle up 40% year-over-year so i think you got to utley outrun inflation to grow your wealth in real terms. i don't know why the market is not focused on this but they should be. looking to earnings next week, banks are the big story, the ultimate duration short trade, they will have a blow out quarter with 336 ipo's this year five times ipo than 2019 so leads me to believe trading ipo will be higher than expected and the balance sheet with the banks with excess capital and excess reserve against a economy that seems to be getting better so there's potential for releasing reserves and increase buy back and valuations trading on 13
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times as a sector in line with what they've been trading since 1990 so it's not particularly expensive. i think the banks could be a positive surprise. >> yeah. well, i mean, surprise will be hard to say, steve, given the run we've seen in the banks year-to-date we're talking about 25, 30, in some cases even higher percentage point gains for the banks going into the number so maybe the pressure son for them to -- is on for them to truly deliver. the reason was able to over look the inflation number because maybe believes the feds will control it and it is transitories the fed chair said, there's so much liquidity in the system and expectation of a big boom post covid that it is focused more on that than rates at this point. >> i think the fed has done a wonderful job saying that they're okay to actually let inflation run a little bit hotter they're using that gauge of two percent as sort of a, you know,
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it's the green, you play golf, scott, they want to hit the green. they don't care about hitting the cup. they just want to get near the hole they're saying they'll let it run a little bit hotter so that the market should not be shocked when they get there. but you brought up an important point, all of these names, these consumer names that have been running, a lot of those names, think about this, stimulus is going to hit pocketbooks and wallets very quickly infrastructure is gonna take months when you look at what people have to spend or what they will have to spend they're goin ing o putd that back into the economy through retail stocks. when you see the infrastructure trade hiccupping a little bit and value trade on the industrial side taking a step back or powder, if you will, it's because it's not going to filter through as quick as the stimulus check barbara hit it guy hit it
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barbara mentioned next week we're going to hear from banks so when people start to gauge where the market will run, where they should start to put money that's where they should have the late day rally and guy touched on the market didn't explode, people were calm, and next week with financials, going to be a powerhouse so buy the market late in the day now and get the start for next week, i think that's what happened today. >> i wonder. james, what happens if rates start to stay here for the banks. we know the quarter was going to be good, right from a trading standpoint, higher rates are good for net interest margin. what happens going forward net gains for banks year-to-date, wells fargo kick it off, 34%, bank of america, 31%. goldman, jpmorgan, morgan, in some cases a touch lighter but a lot of that run was built on reopen and higher rates
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so what happens if rates actually stay here does that take the next move away from the banks? >> i think that we look at this picture whether from a sector-lens in the financial services index or health care or transports or utilities or consumer staples, we go across the board and see year-to-date numbers that look like annualized numbers in by bull market there's an incredible amount of buying market in this market buying energy in this market and anticipation of the fed to allow the market to do as it wishes without monetary traditional policy banks are no exception russell 2,000 with a high concentration in financial firms, we've been talking about big banks a lot but regional banks matter too, they have their finger on the pulse of small businesses and consumer. we saw incredible gains year-to-date in the russell
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three weeks ago we saw the russell come off i'm watching closely the dienk divergence between the big and small banks we saw the decline in the russell while s&p and dow continued up i'm looking at the divergence and break in the continuity across the indices the nasdaq is almost approaching its 52-week high the dow is up there. the s&p is up there. we haven't seen a correction in s&p 500. i mean, we didn't see agreement. so banks are one sector that matters. but i think the macro picture is this bull market continues to power forward as we go into earnings next week any slight disappointment or surprise takes the yield story as something to produce pressure on the market and now we have inflation story, i think risk is high, given the continues bull market and break of all
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different types of records, four highs this week we said earlier, it's important earnings are not a q to what is going forward -- also a potential pause in the rally. >> and not just banks, consumer names, delta, pepsi, bed bath and beyond, all on the calendar as q1 earnings kick off as we head to the first leg of earnings season thought it would be a good time to play a little trades it or fade it all right. so earnings on deck. let's hit our first name, steve grasso, we'll do bed bath & beyond first trade it or fade it? >> i'm gonna fade this one now this is one that we know had terrible earnings the last time around the digital transformation is definitely a tailwind, scott,
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but the headwinds are existing and will continue to exist they're closing stores, there's lack of foot traffic and we still have to wade through a lot of muddy waters. management has told us the head winds exist. let's take their word for it let's fade the stock it will will be better time for entry in the future but i'm not willing to be a buy erright now. >> okay. james. what about you >> i've got my 18-year-old daughter with me so i have to take off my technical analysis my fundamental analysis and be a dad. she cannot wait to go back to the malls with her friends as the economy opens, she said all her friends who want the lotions have to be in the store, my daughter says we got to trade this one. >> all right a fade then a trade. let's move on to delta results coming thursday. guy what's the expectations for
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delta? trade it or fade it? >> i love that you're playing trade it or fade it on a friday, you don't know how much joy it provides me, scott. >> what would i rather be doing on a friday evening than playing trade it or fade it with you. >> i could think of a thousand different things but that's what you're doing now i say trade it morgan stanley has been great, they made comments earlier in the week, raised the price target from 54 to 72 the stock has been slow and steady to the upside, probably the best name in the space i think you own it in the earnings and there's valuation on the call so trade delta airlines. >> okay. barbara ann, do you agree? >> i love the macro story but hate the micro this company's ebit doesn't cover it's interest expense, it's a zombie, zombies give me nightmares no thanks. >> okay.
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next up united health, trade or fade it. >> i got to fade this one. i've been talking to a lot of artificial intelligence people looking at disruptive technologies and there's a disruptor momentum coming to the insurance space and i think united health is, you know, the pe is not bad, business is not bad, it's one of those big industries that's yet to be disrupted. long term i think there's weakness short-term i think there's so much strength in the market got to come off i'm going to fade it. >> guy up 7% year-to-date trade it fade it? >> probably the prudent thing to do, james but what he's talking about is not going to happen for quite some time. the stock is around all-time highs and got the valuation it deserves i continue to say long unh in earnings next week. >> and finally, pepsi reports thursday barbara, ann.
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>> i'd say trade it. it's high quality compounder mid single digit on the sales line got margin expansion 5z you go to away from home. i like it. >> okay. finally, steve grasso? >> i'm gonna say fade this one now i expect them to be, i think barbara's right, it's going to be a good print, there's a lot of frito lay consumed during covid and they will continue to buy that i expect them to be. the chart looks choppy to me i think coke being pulled into the political landscape this country is still split basically 50/50. i think pepsi might get pulled in too you might see some boycotts. but i think pepsi was a great quarantine stock i think it's time to fade the name now. >> good stuff. coming up big tech stock outshining it's competitors. we'll reveal the chart of the week first, new setback for boeing
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are losing altitude. here we are once again 737 max in focus >> yeah, it's a temporary grounding of the 737 max, scott. this is certainly nothing to do with the mcast control software at the heart of the issue over the years, this is a relatively minor issue that should be a quick fix. boeing is telling 16 airline customers we want you to temporarily ground 737 maxes, some of them, we're talking about 80 max's that were all delivered after the faa ungrounded the airplane in november these 80 plains with 16 ai these 80 planes with 16 airlines there's a production change with possible electrical issue. fix time could be couple hours, at most, couple days this is a black eye on public relations level for boeing and for the 737 max.
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southwest has 30 of these max planes it's pulled from its schedule and has made up with the impact with flight schedule with adjusting schedules american airlines is looking at 17 of these max airplanes in its fleet. united has 16 of them the impact in terms of the shares of these airlines, very modest today. scott, this is a short-term issue. by the middle of next week people will not be talking about this again, it only takes a couple hours, at most, maybe a couple days to identify and correct the issue if they find it in any of these planes, again, it's a potential issue with the electricals within the flight cabin. >> yeah. as you said, it's a public relations issue as much as anything else. >> yeah. >> not to minimize it. that may be the most important thing for boeing at this point before i let you go, phil, i
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understand there's more general motors production cuts we're hearing about. >> right the company announcing it will trim its weekend overtime shifts in fort wayne and flint, two plant that's fill pick up trucks and truck market is red hot but if you don't have semi conductors to meet the demand you have to trim, that's what we're see from the automakers, not majorer, they will bring back production end of june, early july. they're trying to adjust what they can't build now make up in the second half of the year. >> understood, thanks phil for your reporting steve, back to oeing, the stock's been a monster, does this have any impact where it goes from here >> if we all sat in a room and we told you know, we heard all of the negative news about
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boeing we would say that the stock would be drastically, dramatically lower than where it is now it's been building a base when you look back to the sell off in june from the june low all wait through november, the beginning of november, then it just rocketed out of that so i truly believe that the market just kind of brushes aside all of these worries they've taken the brunt. all the bad headlines that were much worse as phil just said than this latest headline, it's effecting 67 planes, 16 different airlines yet everyone saying boeing will be okay. it's up 18% year-to-date probably shakes this off as phil said there's too much demand and they real have dualopoly on the marketplace. >> and guy, it's smack in the center of the reopening.
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>> no question yeah, i take this as a positive. a year ago you don't hear it from boeing but you hear it secondhand and stock is down for me, it's a good thing, a new boeing mantra trying to get in front of things. they just did a $1.6 billion deal with the navy to me this is a positive stock didn't react i think it goes up in earnings at the end of the month. >> we'll take a quick break. don't forget we're less than ten minutes away from options actions, someone in the options market thinks the rally is getting rickety. coming up. tsni i one big tech name ouhingts peers stick with us. we'll talk about it next
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. welcome back to "fast money. check out our chart of the week. apple seeing its best weekly performance since january, our question now, can apple keep its appeal heading into earnings season james? >> this is another one of those monster companies. sorry i didn't get to comment on boeing this is like he boeing and mcdonald donald's they're going to continue to dominate their industry and figure out their problems where apple's weakness has been is now a strength and i think it continues to power higher, i think apple being the largest holding in virtually every mutual you'll funds in stock portfolio of virtually every 401 (k) has to own this name there's going to be talk about pressure coming in the market but apple will continue to rip higher as it dominates its space
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and has the pulse of its consumers and they will continue to provide what they want. >> guy are we starting something with apple are we going to get towards 150 before we know it? >> i think so. not that it make as i lot of sense because you don't really have the earnings growth to support it in terms of valuation you're talking about apple now trading close to 27 times next year's numbers but to james it point the passive number coming in absolutely is a huge tailwind for apple. yeah, i think we continue to grind higher, earnings release on the 128th -- on the 28th. >> it's a big week with big tech hitting new highs. haven't talked about apple doing that in a while. >> yeah and apple is, to james' point, apple is the value play within growth with handful of other names. you saw them switch out of a lot of high multiple stocks,
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remember, seasonality for apple may through august are the best months for apple that's the way you should be buying it. service is $53 billion and change i think web bush put out a note they think it will go to $100 billion in services. 5g a huge tailwind for apple refresh cycle. there's a lot going well i'm long and staying long i think it pops at least to 150 i'm looking for 180. >> wow that's bullish. let's do a friday final trade. going around the horn, barbara ann. >> i like the world's largest airport retailer dufry. i think can go back to 20 times. double in three year's time. >> good stuff. thanks >> james. >> uga everyone's going back to life as normal people are getting vaccinated, traffic is back, gasoline is going to keep running.
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>> quickly steve and then guy. >> to stay really consistent apple, final trade. >> all right, guy? >> zombie or not, delta airlines in earnings. >> all right that does it for "fast money" this hour special bonus edition of the fast five is coming your way at the top of the hour. "options action" of course is next
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"options action", strategies from the street's top traders, new opportunities from the market's hottest trends, "opt
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happy friday, "options action" fans, i'm scott in for melissa lee, on tonight's big show we start out karat on a stick is gold leading hire while cash out morgan stanley might buck the buck trend and -- good to have everybody here. let's get right to it. gold losing a bit of its shine this year down nearly 8% still trading at its

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