et cetera. great thing to buy >> all right jim. i'm going to keep it simple and consistent apple into earnings. >> okay. all right. quickly, john. >> another brazilian stock pbr. bought it during the show. >> all right thank you. the exchange is now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. here is what's ahead of us today. investors are spooked by a capital gains tax hike we'll look at what we can see in one area of the market that could be a big beneficiary one warea not benefitting is crypto what if you could access the money between your paycheck.

we begin with today's market >> it was this time just about right now in next ten minutes or so yesterday that we saw some of that selling pressure really exacerbate into the afternoon session because of those tax fears coming to market we fell on a relative basis which as you can see here, we have pretty much made it all back at this level the dow industrial still a bit below what we had yesterday in terms of losses but the s&p and the nasdaq both of these have pretty much gotten back everything they lost yesterday again, maybe some traders were a little scared. it doesn't appear to be manifesting itself in today's market a bounce back in pretty decent size proportions these are your out and under performers the two real out performers in trading so far this week meanwhile, energy remains the stark under performer. it's been that way for the shorter to medium term in the last few weeks here. energy was the biggest performing upside sector so far

in 2021. then take a look at these stocks coin base global, tesla, micro strategy and square. each is very closely aligned with the bit coin or crypto currency ecosystem as the coin prices start the move lower, we have soon an interesting development. tesla which owns bitcoin has up about 2% right now microstrategy up about 1.5%. scar square down fractionally they are not performing as bodily as some of the crypto currencies are it's a di nynamic to watch in te coming days and weeks. the capital gains tax is a key tax for investors and raising it could have an impact on markets and the economy we have a closer look at just how. >> investors sold a lotstof

stocks this time could be larger if it happened since under biden's plan that rate would double. his proposal to raise the top capital gains rate from 23.8% to 43.4%, that's when you include the obama care surtax. that's the first time that capital is taxed higher than ordinary income or labor it would only apply to those of income over 1 million dollar that's about the top .3% of taxpayers. about 500,000 tax filers that group gets more than half of their income from capital gains and captain gains income can easily be shifted. stock gains surged by 60% in the months before the hike

this would reduce tax revenue as investors hold onto assets after the hike the top 1% also owned more than half of individually held stocks take california, if you're a wealthy tech founder or executive and you sell stock, you would pay combined state and federal rate of 56.7%. new jersey would be 54.1% and if you're in new york city, the top combined tax rate on capital gains would be 58.2% kelly, interesting to note that both 86 and 2012 when the capital gains rate was increased, the markets for the rest of those years increased. just because a lot of people sell, doesn't mean the broader market itself will decline as we know they are much bigger

and more important factors that could drive the market just because we could get a lo of selling doesn't mean the market will go down. as we're kind of seeing today as the market is digesting this >> sure. i think maybe the interesting point is it could have a bigger impact on the economy than the stock market it could curb growth or revenue in the longer run but the stock market may or may not be that sens sensitive. some of the naks names won't be effective. my understanding is literature of somewhere between 18 to 28% is revenue maximizing. in other words, if you want to get the most revenue possible for the government, it should be somewhere in that range. if you go above that range, it's understanding you'll raise maybe less revenue because it curbs growth this isn't, it seems to me about maximizing revenue but about making the choice that there's a need or more of a desire for high income earners to pay the taxes in other words to fund the american families plan as posed

to in order to maximize government revenue >> right there's competing reasons for all of this. there's some that want fairness and some that want revenue and some that as you point out are looking at what is the actual optimal rate to maximize revenue. you're right at a certain point whether that's above 28, whether it's 30, whether it's 40, it freezes sa assets you get people not selling, not i vesting because they want to wait for gnaw goa new governmen will reduce the rates. there is an optimal rate at which you will still have activity but you'll raise revenue from capital gains which are so sensitive because their discretionary. people who own capital assets can choose when to sell them that's ha what makes predictions difficult and so tick ricky.

absolutely we'll talk about this. stocks fell on the news yesterday. ha is the likelihood we could see the proposals pass who would be harmed and who would be the ben eficiaribenefi. welcome to you both. jason, what do you think h will likely shake out as as it works its way through congress . >> it will probably be watered down because people will talk about what the optimal rate is for government revenues. i think for this administration, i think there's an extra element of tax increases and extra consideration which is not just raising taxes to raise revenue to pay for government spending but there's also a social justice angle to a lot of the stuff which means at the margin,

it will be a little bit more willing to raise taxes i think it's also important to note that this will be coming into context ofincreases in corporate incomes taxes and increase in the top marginal income tax rate. it's very different from what it was in 1986 when you had an increase in capital gain taxes but you had very significant reductions in the top mortgage tax rate and the tax rate on corporate profits. as a whole, part of the reason why it's going up and the dollar has been weakening over the last month is people are starting to fear this may sterilize some of the stimulus that's already put in place >> that's a really important point because what you're suggesting is that the bond market says this will undermine some of the growth potential, included in some of the other plans. we're reading a lot into a few b

basis points it's absolutely salivating at these prospects. the worse it looks, the investors go great maybe they will want to finance our projects >> i think that's right and welcome back i think the muni market hasn't seen this type of environment in quite a while. you're seeing a lot of tail winds. the fed and treasury since last year said they will have continued support for the space. then you have the fact you'll raise taxes and that means more revenue. then you have an infrastructure bill in the $2 trillion range. that's primarily going to benefit states and you have another added benefit there. finally, treasury yields should be insulated due to the yield spread and scarcity. i'm trying to find good municipal bonds for clients but that tells me there's a lot of

upside in the municipal bond market we're telling our clients to start buying munis in state you're in. always keep in mind you have to look for aaa, double a >> you see my point. it's kind of ironic at the same time we're debating an infrastructure bill, if we go ahead with these tax increases, you could get the huge possible infrastructure boon any way because money will be pouring into the municipal bond space. it kind of would work to unofficially achieve some of those same goals in a round about way. >> i don't think this is just -- i think this is the beginning of higher taxes i don't think this is the end. if you are in the camp that taxes can go higher, they are really low.

>> if 90% is now on the table -- >> no one paid 90% because of the deductions we didn't have an income tax on a regular basis until 1914 in this country i think with ve to be really careful with the financial engineers from the fall government i think we should stop meddling as much as we are. we know what we want to achieve. we do have to pay for it, of course i think the more complex the systems get, the more likely it is for capital to go on strike

>> that's all well and good. let's say i wanted to bet on the side it's going to get more complicated because that seems to be what happens and more and more layers. real quickly boil it down. you're talking to people about where to put their money in the market maybe sectors. what would you say is your best advice to how you can take advantage if you want to put it that way or whatever of this evolving environment >> the biggest changes are not just capital gains but also movement backwards toward a worldwide tax system that would have a big impact on tech. my own opinion we're telling our clients is just there ask a lot of real estate between now and when this will get passed which will probably be before labor day. i wouldn't be making a lot of moves right now. there's a will the of moving parts and goenegotiations to go

>> i know you're not really saying 90% if that's the -- you're right. we could keep going higher >> in an environment where there's no political will to keep taxes low, you always have to have be aware of that as an investor >> understood. thank you both appreciate it today. stocks are climbing back into positive territory higher taxes is making jpmorgan less bullish coming up, we'll talk about the crypto collapse. bitcoin below $50,000 for the first time since march regulatory pressure and the potential for a big tax are dampening sentiment. are we setting up for another

2018 slide you may want to held for the mall if you looking for yields the exchange is back after this.

welcome back bitcoin is selling off on a potential tax gains hike it fell below 50,000 for first time it's down 19% this week. on pace for its first week in more than a month. joining me with more are emily parker, the co-host of first mover and ryan, the ceo of crypto asset data company. emily, how much of this do you think is tax selling related and how much because it was already under way is the kind of correction we might see in any asset class. >> with cryptocurrency you never know there's a chance some people are thinking taxes will go up. i have some long term realized gains. i better sell now before taxes hit. we are even seeing a lot of rumors of regulation that have been deeply spooking the crypto

markets. there was rumors floating around that janet yellen would put these on capital gains on crypto i think the larger narrative is the crypto market is really spooked by any fear of government interference or government intervention in the markets. >> ryan, it's been on such a run. it went straight up to 63. you have to expect this volatility is it possible that this will bring in a wave of new buyers of people who say, you don't have to buy the whole thing you can buy exposure any which way at this point. those who look at this as a buying opportunity >> i think that's right. if you look at the performance year to date, the total crypto market cap is up if you look at any other time period outside of the one waiting 24-hour, one month, bitcoin and crypto are the

highest performing classes this could be a good buying opportunity. the other thing if you look at prior sickle, the time that crypto has gotten into trouble and really marked a local top has been one it's riden too steeply, too fast. even though we had a major run up this year, we haven't seen something analogous to the last couple of cycles where the local top is marked by a doubling of the bitcoin in ethereum price in less than a week it's an insane pace of growth. if you're looking for a blow off top, this probably isn't it. it's probably the usual course of volatility and we expect to have six pull backs of about 30% or more. we had about three so far versus six in 2017, for instance. >> to put it kind of -- to the point i would say still bullish, if i may emily -- >> yeah. >> the regulatory point is interesting. when you look around on tik tok

and see people's reaction to the capital gains tax they go, if anyone asks, say you forgot the password you don't own it anymore it's filled with these coy, here is how you can get around the irs type of things i do wonder how that plays out maybe it's not capital gains tax but is there some more severe regulation coming that could have a bigger impact on the market and do more the chase off potential buyers >> sure. there's the two trillion dollar question as the crypto market gets birg, regulators will start paying more attention tax collectors will start paying attention. when something goes mainstream, it's subject to mainstream rules like taxes

there's a lot of murkiness about something a security or not. you could accidental break the rules or not want to take that risk that's in the past have caused some cryptocurrency start-ups to leave the united states. i think this is probably the biggest risk >> did that tell you things were getting too frothy and if so do you say bitcoin is the one you look at at a pull back like this what jumps out to you as an attractive opportunity >> i think for better or worse when you look at the cycles, everything rises at the same pace and when the tide goades ot you see which have some long term sbinteresting fundamentals it's your bellwethers but if you think about this capital gains

issue, one of the unintended consequences might be that more capital is locked in this crypto eco system long term and medium term. you might have better tax set ups versus tabing taking money the equation i think there's a lot of upside in the market and we're seeing the very tip of the iceberg. just need a little more of a long term holder base and long term mind set. >> it's a great point. bearish in the short term and bullish in the long run. i think we'll do more on that soon thank you. coming up, the audio only wars are heating up with this stock being declared the winner. i'll tell you the name and why

plus the real estate reopening trade. it's not what you might think. the surprising companies with the biggest returns in this space. that's next.

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the dow is up 223 points s&p is up 45 nasdaq pretty strong most of them are in the green today. financials, industrials and technology are in the lead staples the only one in the red and as you can see here, the communication services materials, all of them benefitting to the upside. there's been a will the of focus on beaten up places in the market that are rebounding sharply on the expectation of things getting back to normal. most of that attention is focused on travel, leisure, those kinds of companies don't forget about the real estate sector. >> it's only worth about 2.5 in total weight the reality sector is up about

16%. it's the third best performer sector in the s&p in 2021. within the real estate realm, brick and mortar was supposed to be dead. it's come back to life since the pandemic lows. yes off a low base look at this performance here. kimco realty and simon properties are companies that work in or manage around commercial real estate for retail companies shopping mall, shopping centers, that sort of thing kimco is up 30% year to date simon property up 35%. it's not just capital appreciation story off those lows we saw last year. there's also a dividend yield component to many of these stocks as well they do pay above market dividend yields. take a look at some of these we're talking north of 3%. regency centers, 3.8%. kimco, 3% as well. capital appreciation alongside some of these dividends.

there's a reason retail has become a bit more of an interest point for traders. >> absolutely. >> dom, thanks let's get over to willford >> president biden has wrap ud up a two day lclimate summit the white house says biden's first official trip over seas will be to the uk and belgium. biden said to attend a g7 summit time is running out for a missing sub. it has less than a day supply of oxygen left. more than two dozen ships are taking part in the search. by traping police to use different parts of their brains opinion find out more on the new methods on the news with shepard smith. back to you. >> thank you see you soon coming up, driving up pay, a

back to school bump, winning the social audio wars and a retail roster change. it's coming up in rapid fire first it's friday, that means it's time to look ahead for your money next week >> social search and spending. it's a huge week for easternings. big tech is on deck. the sec tor is up nearly 10% other names include visa, mastercard, starbucks, boeing, mcdonald's oil prices are up 15% over the past three months. the fed meeting kicks off on tuesday with a rate decision announced wednesday. plus endevor is said to go public valuing itself at $10 billion in the latest filing. pending home sales will give us a look at allow tight the housing market is. tesla will report earnings on

monday a week after its technology comes into question after a deadly crash investors will be paying close attention to elon musk commentary that's youfrayasfoarr id ft rwd.

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welcome back let geets you up on a couple of stories. it's time for rapid fire he's the chief investment officer of seymour office management first topic. it's a good time to be a driver for uber or lyft they are upping wages to more than 40 bucks an hour in major cities that's nearly double what most made before the pandemic lyft and uber were up 75% in march. my mother-in-law was talking the other day about how she had to go with lyft instead of uber because there's no uber drivers.

it's created a weird user experience and maybe a really good situation for the drivers who do show up right now >> it's great time to be a driver it's not great to be a customer. huge waits t hurt the customer experience on the plus side, this the great for drivers. i've been reporting on these companies for years when drivers say they are not getting paid enough your mother-in-law switched to lyft that's interesting is lyft going to grab more market share will we see them having discounts for drivers.

>> this has to be horrendous for margins. what's the traders take? >> i think they are passing a lot of this on the the customer. i love that uber spent the investment on transportation and the delivery and logistic business don't think they are given enough credit. the fact they may or may not be profitable by the second half of 2021 is less relevant when i consider the transportation business as a whole and the scale here and the logistics investments. think about amazon and hold up they were either allowed to do this or in some cases punished for their lack of the profitability. i think uber is very investable here that ak they filed on april 12th told you how strong the march month. i think this will be a catalyst

for the stock and break of 60 is something you buy. >> i want to ask because we'll talk retail next but maybe this gets to the heart of what's going on now wages in retail are under the same amount of pressure that they are for uber drivers. it's the same situation in a shopping mall as it is to drive an uber now. that's got to be creating a will the of headaches >> i was just thinking if you at restaurant or retail worker on the floor of a department store, what's more enticing i have to think that has to be attractive especially when you can make your own hours, much more so than if you're working for someone else with lyft and uber you're working for yourself i can only imagine this will add to retails headache as they start to reexpand the employees they have on the floor >> we're starting to get into summer and back to school

system they both should benefit add we move into the summer we went to dick's. i did not know they were that expensive. >> yeah. i've heard stories about lines outside of dick's sporting goods and it's not just dick's sporting goods and yeti that is getting some of this boost i speak with the ceo of land's end. anything we're selling that has to do with the outdoors is super popular and has been since later in the pandemic when people started being able the feel freer to leave their homes they started in the backyard and on the hiking trails

i think there's really something to this outdoor trend whether it's a little league glove or it's a hiking camel back or these yeti coolers that are very expensive but if you get the use out of them, people are saying i'm not spending money on other thing, why not plow it into a cooler >> it's interesting because this feels like the pandemic hedge play there's been this back and forth about do you want to stick with the reopening stock ors or the pandemic plays it was interesting we were talk about real estate and how the hamptons is strong he said, it's going to be strong in colorado. people still can't travel internationally. there's still this sense of maybe we can get out and play in the outdoors but we're not going back to what was previously normal >> clearly you are i don't want to get too far away from your softball glove here. >> it was my husband's

>> you behind the dish you center fielder what are you doing very interesting stuff i think covid has been a total boom for dick's. the case is where can they be in 2022 b 2022 it's roughly 14 times 21 in eps. i think it's case where the experience of walking into a dick's sporting good is part of what i think is the ropi reopeng trade for them they have drive range in one of those stores which sounds scary. i like the story here. >> all right we'll switch gears i can talk about this all day. my dad gave him the acronym help it stands for head positioning and elbow control. we have call from jeffreys on a clear winner here. the firm initiating coverage of

spotify with a buy rating, a $360 price target. that's 25% upside. they are saying spotify is more platform than streaming experience and should become the destination for content creators this comes as apple announce plans to enter the premium pod cast space and facebook up veiled the opportunity for spotify kind of never should have been there. >> kelly, i read that thompson note as well his argument was that spotify is an audio first platform. they are set to dominate i would not count facebook out they just announced their suite

of audio tools i think that they could be real contender. >> tim, would you own spotify or do you sell them because now here comes the big tech compe competition? >> i think they are continuing take a lead and distance themselves from the pandoras of the world. i think the valuation is challenging here the excitement around this billion dollar advertising market and podcast is, i think a lot of it is in the price. thats to be a pretty happy day in the markets today high multiple tech has been more scrutinized and going over the next couple of quarters. i love their positioning the strategic battle you described, i think they are doing fine the multiple is not one i'm going to chase into the in your opinions >> it's till up 7%

apple is up 2.5% gold medal gymnast simone biles is leavie ie ing nike she will have her own performance line just the other day the focus on women does give it a leg up on the competition. listen sdplp we are focused on women and girls and we think that really sets us apart. we talk about being for women, by women and just really understanding who she is, what her needs are and so that is something that we think is actually an advantage for us as we focus on our mission of empowering women and girls >> it seems like the biggest blunder for nike was the whole issue wa alex and her frpregnan which brought some of these concerns to highlight. nike said we will do these things for pregnant women but

athleta seized the opportunity >> that's exactly what came to mind when i heard about this switch for simone biles even though it's not the same circumstance, but it's another woman leaving. she said we're not supporter her as an athlete but as a whole person she's a change maker i think it's sbrr ivery interesg they are offering miss biles in a life beyond gymnastics we know that career is a short one. you're done as a teenager. it looks like they will sort of be more life to just the way that simone lives her life she'll be able to extend with athleta and in response to that question, my question to the ceo was why don't you have a men's line because they do just focus on women and girls and she

pointed it out as a strength we don't know the price tag but perhaps in this way, it's a much more sustainable war for them, if you want to call it that. i'm shurp they wouldn't. >> she is brand gold i think the dynamic here is one where really you're looking at gap and trying to decide what to do with the stock after going from 7 to 33 who needs to own crypto when you can own restructured retailers and in the case of this one, again, accelerating trends that needed to happen there are very strong i think a lot is priced in love her add a brand spokesperson don't know if i love the stock >> final quick word.

>> i will take out a piece of this news that i thought wads really interesting biles said athleta will support a post-olympics tour she is planning to mount herself. there's another angle here entrepreneurship for ath letesa. very smart >> that is a great point >> maybe the start of something else >> it's the yolo economy and biles is part of it. thank you all today. still ahead, what did dollar tree have in supply. the ceo will join me to talk about the ongoing labor shortage, next plap

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pulling out of the stops to entice employees daily pay lets workers access or save their pay without having to wait until payday. employees stay 45% longer at their jobs when they have access to this service. joining me is jay son lee. how does this work >> thanks, kelly welcome back >> thank you >> daily pay is a new york based technology company we work with enterprises and fortune 500 companies in every industry, from restaurants to retail employers leverage our technology to really offer their employees, truly, life changing experience it's something that we call on demand pay said simply, employees can now access any part of their pay instantly as they earn it without having to wait for a lump sum on a scheduled payday through our technology, any employee can now see exactly

what her accrued earnings are and at top of a button have any access to those earnings 24/7, 365. it's not a pay back. it's not a loan. it's just your money and we're delivering that to you on demand >> there's always a catch. i love this. we should note it's pretty ubiquitous at this point according to this stats, one in six grocery workers are using it seven out of ten fast food chains it saves people tons of money on over draft and not available funds fee. i totally get that i guess the but is there's some extent a fee $2.99 fee to transfer up to 10 0% of unearned income. 1.99 for next day. you annualize that, it's still a burden does this ultimately help or hurt the low income earner >> it's a terrific question,

kelly. i guess the way we think about it is in the new digital world, this whole concept of payday is an antiquated concept. you went to your checking account and saw money buttons and paid it a few dollars to essentially access your money none of us think differently about that so what our technology is doing is it is making your pay realtime >> right. >> it is like a checking account. >> but it does have a fee. >> it's essentially what's occurring here so a lot of users analogyize this to i pay a small fee like with any other checking account. >> do we need the banking system to get there or payroll and why can't we get paid continuously in realtimesome heck, minute by

minute. >> that's the vision. >> that's the world that we are designing. we see an entirely new financial system where pay is in fact realtime the catch, however, is it's really hard to do. from my colleagues that work in the payroll industry it is difficult to get the pieces to work together, the funding or the technology. >> yep. >> or the risk in compliance so that's what we do. we essentially offer the employee the ability to access daily pay without the employer having to run payroll daily and that's the concept' it's very interesting and glad to have you on this week talking about this can be a way to employee retention. that's something that everyone is offering. this is another way to maybe attract and keep the workers thank you for joining me. >> thank you so much, kelly.

>> jason lee founder and ceo of daily pay. head winds face the rubber industry there is a shortage. we'll talk about how that impacts consumers and the supply chain. it is financial literacy month and there's thoughts about the importance of financial education. >> in modern society, if you're not educated about credit, savings and investment, you'll not make good decisions. over the course of a lifetime bad decisions compound, good decisions compound the earlier you'reeducated the better your decisions, the better the outcomes.

welcome back first toilet paper and then grape nuts and computer chips and rubber there's a major shortage around the world. seema mody has the details >> reporter: the shortage of raw

materials and now hearing that rubber is increasingly hard to import for some industries so what's the problem? it's multiple factors. lack of shipping containers, bottleneck and a recent surge in demand most of the natural rubber is from southeast asia, thailand the largest producer 15,000 miles away and doo to the shipping delays some businesses are using other modes of transportation to import the rubber they need. >> consumers who buy direct in southeast asia have been utilizing air transport to bring natural rubber those 15,000 miles from southeast asia to the united states. >> reporter: dover a major industrial said this week that the global shortage of plastic and rubber is driving increased investment in processing plants, tiremaker goodyear saying we are

not experiencing supply limitations. it was tight last year we took measures to ensure supply met the factory needs some scientists see opportunity here a doctor at ohio state university is developing rubber from plants and two to three years away from getting it to market. >> great to onshore it it could be two years before the chip shortage is resolved and dealing with the headaches increasingly important for a long time. thank you. that does it for "the exchange" today. i'll join tyler matheson on the other side of the break for "power lunch."

happy friday, everybody. i'm kelly evans. tyler matheson will join me in a moment stocks rebounding after yesterday's tax bombshell. tech stocks are leading the way. nasdaq up 1.5% bitcoin below 50,000 it was back and forth all day. look at ethereum light coin. intel is falling after the results and this industry going through turbulence but could