starbucks reports tonight. i'll be watching for their loyalty rewards program. >> you've been a big fan of this one for quite some time and now reopening play very much so. >> thanks for watching the exchange is now. thank you, scott here is what's ahead at this hour the cdc just making huge changes to indoor and outdoor mask wearing recommendations. we expect to hear from president biden on covid-19 any moment and we'll bring it to you when it happens. inflation or reflation as prices continue to rise one strategist says yes. consumers will happily pay up. he joins us to explain the investment implications of that. half million new business sz american ingenuity took over and entrepreneurship has taken off

>> the s&p 500 41.82 one place that is still seeing continued upside momentum in the commercial real estate side of things with regard to real estate real estate type kpaens we're talking about mall owners, strip mall owners, simon property, regeneral sigh center, each of these gets a check not a star no they are not record highs but they are 52-week high for simon properties keep an eye on that retail trade. it kbould that roping trade on the real estate side of things

and then, penn national gaming getsen upgrade we're talking 2.5% up nearly 500% the best performing stock in the s&p five hundred in that one year span. back over to you >> we appreciate it. return to the fed. they are kicking off a two-day meeting on interest rates. the focus will be on inflation and the gamble to let things run hot to keep the recovery on track. big consumer names from whirlpool and kimberly clarke have announced plans to raise prices will companies successfully pass along the highest costs? my guest guest says yes. it's a very good sign for corporate earnings

you say in this case the money is coming from extra savings, stimulus checks. you think consumers will pay up everywhere they are being asked? >> absolutely. the business cycle pattern is that prices paid it first for producers. margins catch up and as rev nus -- revenues go up, they cover fixed costs. it's a variable cost argument but seeing total revenue growth up is when they start to cover the fixed costs and that spread widens that's a big positive for small caps, for example. this is a type cal business cycle pattern but whether consumers will pay higherprice

or not this impulse has only been through goods prices. that's the piece is ending >> let me stop you right there because this is fascinating. if i'm a company, i should always be raising prices. is it true i'm going to sbuk

that chipotle and look at that index. you go go to wendy's, you can't get out the door under 10 bucks. aren't the consume ers going to find some ways to hurt profit margins. >> they never fell the only time service sector prices have fallen below 3% is during the pandemic and that's all subty constitution -- substitution pattern it's the goods that's where the im impulses come from w walmart went to china. don't really get cheaper prices on amazon anymore you get from walking into a store >> agreed. s >> you get convenience that's the broader point that goods disinflation from that massive supply of cheap

labor and the rest of the world is dissipating that cheap labor supply is gone. >> what does this mean for the fed? >> they are saying this makes a lot of sense that means these price pressures could stick around to some extent or it means they won't. bring it back to what's the fed going to do and what does it mean for the stock market? >> listen, the fed is looking at the next quarter and this is translation. that's true. if my thesis we're in a period of deglobalization, asian export growth was 15% it was only 5% in the 2010s. i think it will be slower in the 20s.

last cycle it plunged. i think the fed is going to get into the third quarter and say maybe this isn't so transitory first off to cut back on a asset purchases. drive the titanic into the iceberg like they did the fourth quarter of 18. stl they have to be a little more response dent. once we start, 2% inflation will be a floor if we dip below two, we will slow the process or stop the process. i don't think the market will believe them on that

they may have to do it to convince the market that they are not going drive us into an iceberg again. >> now might be the time for powell to start hinting at that. they are so conservative i don't know >> i think they will wait till the third quarter even though they shouldn't >> it's great to have your point of view. thank you. good to see you. today marks the ten year anniversary of when fed share led the first ever press conference jay powell instituted the policy of holding them after every single one with less than a year until the end of powell's term should we expect him to get extended by president biden or who else might be in the running for the job. st we have latest results of our c flr -- cnbc survey. >> jay powell is a heavy favorite on wall street to are

renominated for a second term by president joe biden even while there's substantial disagreements with some aspects of fed policy under powell 76% say biden will renominate powell asked if biden should be renominated, 82% said yes. president biden's other options, according to our survey respondents and also council of economic advisers members, jare bernstein. the support for powell whose term expires in 2022 is notable because of disagreements many believe the fed $120 billion in monthly asset purchase are not needed to help the economy and the fed should be tight ping sooner in the face of this massive fiscal spending. also asked if climate change inappropriate in superer vise ri

concern. 64% or nearly two-thirds say it's an inappropriate metric should minority employment be gaps be a factor in determining monetary policy, 46% said yes. 49% said no. a will the of division right there. no policy change expected at the meeting this week. for all of 2021, with the survey suggests is even while they disagreements between wall street and the fed over policy, they're still general belief that powell is the right person for the job. kelly. >> when you say no changes for all of 2021, what barry said about the fed changing policy in third quarter in response to pressures, in general the consensus not on board with that >> no, that's not the consensus. the consensus is the fed will announce taper some time later this year but not actually begin reducing the amount of monthly

purchases until 2022 the first rate hike is not seen until december 2022 as well. powell has him convinced whether they think it's necessary or not that fed will remain on hold and is purposely putting the fed behind the curve on inflation here >> first they start talking about it and then they start doing it we'll see if they have the reaction functions to be flexible we'll have months to talk about that we appreciate it >> this is just as the cdc issued new guidance for fully vaccinated people. here to talk about all of it is meg. i was surprised about the indoor recomme recommendations, meg >> we got mostly achange to the out door mass guidance for people fully vaccinated but some who are not fully vaccinated the first one, if you're walking, running, biking or

hiking outdoors they are saying whether you are fully vaccinated or not, you don't have to wear a mask using your judgment in terms of people fully vaccinated, small outdoor gatherings with vaccinate and unvaccinated people, eating at on out door restaurant with multiple households saying it's okay not to be wearing your mask in terms of indoor guidance saying you should be wearing a mask for even if you're fully vaccinated to go to a barber or a hair salon go do museum or movie theater or things like that now they are saying as you're getting vaccinated, we will be able to do thing tss that are m getting back to normal 231 million now administered 37%. those numbers are climbing and people over 65, it's 68% fully vaccinated now we did get good news from the

cdc director today it's important to focus on the good news. daily covid cases down 21% on the 7-day average. still at 54,000 cases a day. that's a high number but it's coming down. hospitalization, new admissions down 9 p% to 5,000 a day we are staerting to see flaggin in the pace, down about 20% in terms of number of shots being administered per day from that peak april 13th. really reaching the stage of the vaccination roll out where you have to get to the folks who really weren't lying up and trying to get their appointments as soon as possible. it's really moving into a new time, kelly. >> plenty of people, stephen stanley, the economist, different readers saying the cdc is just catching up or still remains behind the reality for

most americans you and i know it's businesses that aring le looking to these guidelines to dictate what they can do and when. it's not clear what this would mean for your typical restaurant w i don't know what that would mean for that establishment. >> the government said it's not going get involved in terms of vaccine passport it would be to ensure they are fair and rolled out in way that makes sense but never mandating themselves you're right businesses do look to cdc guidance for what they should be doing in terms of masks. some of this will apply but some will be really difficult if you have to prove vaccination status >> absolutely. thanks for now be sure to check out our healthy returns on may 11th that bring the top ceo tech leaders and investor to explore how the most innovative companies are addressing covid-19.

you can register now at cnbc.com/healthyreturns. coming up, reporting record quarterly revenue. the stock is down but nearly tripled from march lows. chairman join us next with a look at what's driving the gains and the world of crypto, inflation, return to work and more big tech is on deck. from alphabet anti-trust risk. we have the key things investors are watching for as we count down to earnings after the bell. we're back in a couple

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welcome back shares of stiffel down the operating environment in 2021 has been a tailwind as the equity markets are up, client engagement is strong and credit re remains solid. happy to have you. welcome back >> thank you for having me >> i guess that makes stifel a pandemic stock what should i think about your stock as an investor as we get

back to quote, unquote normal? >> i believe our fundamentals are extremely strong and any kind of ratio you want to look at our stock is, i think, is inexpensive. looking forward, we have clearly beneficiary of what's going on if you think of all the fiscal stimulus, the monetary stimulus and the disruption that's going on in markets and we as a financial institution are in the middle of all of this as the other financial institutions we're benefitting. it was a hard letter to write because we were very successful yet i understand that not every one shared in that success >> i'm also interested in the fact you're aggressively going after financial planners to join your network i wonder how much room you think that has to run. we have seen so much engagement

from the retail investor with the stock market over the past year but are you going further into that space just as they might start to pull back and say now there's other things that can fill my time i have other activities to pursue >> if you're talking about investors, our investors, we have been going after building this business for 25 years that doesn't change today. we're not a day trading firm our investors don't sit and follow the latest meme stocks at all. wealth management is a growth business for us and the advice business is healthier than ever. i am a very bullish on that and will continue to invest in that sector, for sure >> understood. let's talk a bit about crypto. we're going to talk a lot more on this program in the weeks and months ahead about the whole def irk trend and what it means if crypto become a method by which

financial transactions remain. can stifel remain integral to the payment system or how should you think about the role of crypto and maybe the role, hesitate to use the word block chain but as this technology becomes more and more advanced >> i don't know why you would hesitate to use the word block chain. i think block chain is where true innovation will occur i believe that any and all that doesn't recognize does so at that peril we shouldn't have to have have every title through how many counties it should be on a block chain as you get titles it should be relatively simple today crypto is highly

speculative. the biggest thing about crypto this terms of monetary transactions are whether or not sovereign governments will support it governments will not just let their fiat currency fade to black. facebook tried it. you remember a few years ago that didn't work out decentralized finance is almost a utopian thought that everything is frictionless and there are no middlemen what are we doing as a marketplace. the marketplace is valuing the middle men coinbase is an exchange and k cust custodian. there's nothing magical about this that valuation level is

extraordinary if you believe that the block chain will take all the friction away. then coinbase isn't wornts what t -- worth what they think it is. there's innovation that will occur, clearly >> that's an interesting point we'll see as it evolves maybe it will eat its own the deal making off the start. investment banking what kind of deal do you see for the rest of 2021 >> our backlog is double digit in increases over what we started the year at. we had a favorable market. i would tell inverssstinvestorsn

go away. i think you'll see consolidation this summer. the concept of inflation and what that means to markets will become a bigger part of the dialogue going forward >> interesting as you already seen here, we are starting to turn that direction and we haven't seen a stock market have to digest that in quite some time. thanks so much go ahead >> when the market does, if it does face the specter of higher rates, it will have an impact on growth stocks and investors should be aware of that. when people tell me not to worry about something, i worry about it inflation falls in that camp >> if you told me to worry, then i'm also going to worry about it it's good to see you thank you, sir coming up, america's entrepreneurial spirlit remains strong can over half a million

new openings can you guess the industry bit coin speculation help boost q1 profit by more than a hundred million dollars. is that good or bad? we'll debate that on "the exchange."

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welcome back let's get you a check on the markets now. the dow is down 111 points it's only down 22 at the moment.

the nasdaq is down a quarter percent. energy, industrials and financials, let's call that the leadership now we got them in the green about laugh a percent. tech, health care are utilities are you laggards let's get over to rahel for our update >> the fbi is opening a civil rights investigation into the fatale police shooting of andrew brown shooting a lawyer describes the shooting as an execution and says the autopsy results back that up police say they their investigation is ongoing the biden administration is easing requirements on treating opioid addiction with medication doctors and health workers will no longer need extra training to prescribe certain dug erugs to p with opioid training what the right way to greet people are handshakes back in and what about lhugs

we'll help you sort oit out tonight. >> the hug, handshake? i don't know >> we have to resocialize as humans everything is so questionable. i sort of play it by ear i'm a lhugger but i kind of wai to see if the person wants to be hugged >> you don't want to be accused of -- >> that's another issue. >> going in for that hug crypto bit coin adjusted earnings we're back in a couple don't go anywhere.

i really hope that this vaccine can get me one step closer to him. to a huge wedding. to give high fives to our patients. to hug my students. with every vaccine, cvs is working to bring you one step closer to a better tomorrow.

welcome back let's catch you up on a couple of stories that should be on your radar now it's time for rapid fire here to break down the headlines are jon fortt and kate roon yerooney google's parent company alphabet is set to report after the bill. the quarter is expected to be bigger than the powerful fourth quarter.

it will cast a shadow this afternoon? >> no, i don't think so. antiskrn trust we talk about it. the drum beats but it takes so long to play out i think when earnings happen, investors tend to remember that. is it something people need to keep in the back of their mind as they invest it's not just google, alphabet it's also amazon it's apple there are all kinds of competition questions out there but i don't think that's going to hang over this quarter. >> this is a quarter where they think even though q1 is seasonally weak that they get a pandemic reopening advertise boost. apparently it's showing up in travel and some areas. it's a question on youtube i'm using and on it more than ever i don't know if it's just a quirk or not but how important is that platform and what do you think we're going to learn about it, if anything? >> very important. some analysts think it's under appreciated because of the reach. nobody has managed to challenge

google alphabet's dominance when it comes to video and the apps connected to it. facebook app launched but it's not done that much twitter, snap still niches markers not only use it directly but advertised on it >> kate, what were you doing to say? >> i find myself watching youtube than before the pandemic the cloud business that's another big one that has sort of snuck up here and you think about amazon and what a profitable side of that business that's been and under the radar. that's another sector here to watch similar to microsoft challenging amazon in cloud and a lot of analysts are look at that line of revenue they are sort of diversifying. they are moving away from the ad centered business.

probably not a lot of focus. >> bob, how important is all of this that's alphabet. we're about to talk about microsoft. how important is this for the market this week >> it's very important because what's been happening is the earningsest mats keep rising and they will look to the big tech, the megacap tech names to support that thesis. google estimates are up about 15% since january. that's in line with how the market is beating all of the numbers so far the average company has been beating by almost 20%. the market is now anticipating that google and microsoft will probably be beat by 15 to 20%. they'll be into the 2022 estimate these multiples that people complain about, microsoft, alphabet are probably 34, 35 times forward earnings

that's not so high when you keep having the earnings estimate go up i'll bet you you'll see this be beat by 15 to 20% in line with expect tags. i don't know if that will pull the market forward dramatically but it will continue to support the current price. >> you're right. microsoft which reports after the bell, we question whether they can keep the momentum going. they are up 17% so far in 2021 there company is approaching the market cap of nearly $2 trillion 1 trillion has not been the ceiling we thought it might have been when we first crossed it. it's really something. >> we're supposed to bit hing around a tril. how much bigger can they get piper sandler is referring to it as expectation

azure might have to come up in 50% in order to satisfy. >> 50% >> yeah. expectations climbing up 32% up by a third year over year that's tough those are tough numbers to meet. how does the market respond. we saw what happened with tesla and some of these other names. our valuation stretched? sure but where else will you put your money not in the bond market >> bob >> at 35 times i'm not sure it's stretched on the current estimates. 1.78, forget about it. they will do north of $2 for sure on this if they could pull it off or if next couple of quarters they will be into 2022 estimates that the analysts have. you're talk about 32 times that's not very high that's historically where it's been you can't even say the valuations are stretched

my point is, the numbers are so strong, the earnings numbers are so strong. as long as they can keep pulling that off, i don't think anybody can say it's dramatically over priced not microsoft, not right now >> we'll see and a big week for all of them. let's turn and talk some crypto and credit we got some interesting news the crypto platform gemini a partnering with mastercard i confess, i don't really get the point of there users get up do 3% rewards in the form of bitcoin or other crypto currency. the wait list is more than 140,000 people strong. why not just get a more lucrative normal rewards card and put the cash into crypto why do you need them to do that for you? sgl >> to the consumer, it's symbolic you support bitcoin and believe in it, it's a gimmick.

if you're earning 3% back, it's way to get exposure without really having to think about it. you get 3% every time you buy something. it goes in your gemini account a lot of these crypto companies are starting to look a lot like banks. the company gemini just trading. i think on the credit card companies, mastercard, visa and paypal you had them get into the crypto currency narrative. >> defi is kind of a threat to those exist ing. the fact that mastercard was on this is interesting. it's going to keep going up. it seems to be cash plus option.

you joust lost money >> what this story is about is the slow march of bitcoin. we know what money is. it's a means of payment and a store of value this is about the slow march towards that they will allow -- they're talking about allowing the use of crypto currency now you're talking about the possibility of acceptable means of payment it's silly but it's about a slow march. >> if you want 3% bitcoin buy it yourself don't spend 200 sdlr on the card >> everything is trying to be

dot com. everything is trying to be crypto now then five years later nobody wanted to talk about dot com i don't think crypto is going away bittoin clearly here to stay >> tesla did sell 10% of it ts bitcoin portfolio. that means kind of more money selling the bitcoin than selling the actual cars. uf to figure out what's going on and the bulls can point to the automotive side and say profit margins are up but the order book is growing and this model 3 is the best selling luxury car in the world and they can ignore the fact it was bitcoin that

helped them. >> the ford f truck sells like 800,000 vehicles a year. that's what tesla will probably deliver if they are good on their portfolio. you expect that with elon musk here is guy that revitalized the space program and revitalized the solar market and solar battery market the guy made good on his claims. you have to put up with soilliness, i think it's been worth it i think the man is a genius. i've been a big backer of his from the beginning sd >> elon musk said we are doing it to test liquidity in the

bitcoin market it's pretty good i don't know what concern there was or what point tesla think it made but for the professionals are saying this is a pretty liquid market. >> right there's not a lot of comparisons. you think about square you don't see them selling they make money off of bitcoin transactions that doesn't seem to be the point and holding it on your balance sheet. you don't see a lot of other sellers. elon did see some push back. >> should i not ask. >> you know what diamond hands are. >> i don't >> you can hold and keep holding because your hands are made of diamond. if this is a currency, people buy it they were happy when elon through tesla, when tesla bought

it, of course they will sell some of it sometimes it's the way it works. >> maybe at the end of the quarter. >> everybody cares about diamond hands. >> i learn something every day from you guys. thank you very much for this edition of rapid fire. still ahead, more than half o million newbusiness open during the pandemic according to new data with 96 million americans now fully vaccinated, we'll dig into the numbers and where businesses are thriving next. frill is financial literacy next and cnbc has been sharing messages from business and thought leaders about the importance of financial education. >> i think we need to completely revamp the education system. we have a macro system that forces many of them to go into debt for higher education which is supposed to give them a diploma that's supposed to be an roi execution. that's collapsed in in modern generation

we're completely delusional as a society of how to set up kids financiay.ll there's so much space. we have a guestroom now. but we have aunts. you're slouching again, ted. expired. expired. expired. thanks, aunt bonnie. it's a lot of house. i hope you can keep it clean. at least geico makes bundling our home and car insurance easy. which helps us save a lot of money. oh, teddy. did you get my friend request? oh. i'll have to check. aunt joni's here! for bundling made easy, go to geico.com hello?!

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make a different future start different at godaddy.com welcome back some encouraging signs the economy is on the path to recovery more than half a million new businesses open in the u.s. between april first of 20 and march of this year not nearly the hits expected and reopenings are on the rise more than a quarter million businesses have opened back up including 50,000 in this first quarter. that's the highest level since last summer. how and where america is getting back to business, let's welcome in justin norman welcome. >> thank you >> let's start with the new openings i think we understand the reopenings more interesting to me is what kind of new businesses are opening. i understand it's really picked up in first quarter of this year it reminds me of this yolo economy article. a great article of the new york

times. what's driving this and where are we seeing it happen? >> thank you new business openings are reached highest levels in the last 12 months as a lot of entrepreneurs have levelled into business ownership even throughout the difficult year. in q1, a lot of the businesses were leading the charge in terms of new openings. it shows particularly spikes in new business openings for restaurant and food businesses that cater to take out and other covid-19 safe activities as well as bakeries and dessert shops as people take their baking hobbies and develop them into new ventures in that home and auto sector, people spent a lot of time at home and in their neighborhood at the beginning of the pandemic so those sectors are increasing. as we sorts of got the hang of it and decided we could bo on vacation, the autos are seeing increases. >> pickle ball

seeing activity right. >> sure. pickle ball experience resurgence of interest of about 200% in missouri and kansas from q1 of this year. it's the same category of actives that were outdoor. >> is there a new trend that where people are either leaving maybe corporate jobs or they were not able to go back to what way were doing in jobs were unsafe because of covid and they said i'm going out on my own i'll take the chance and looking towards the roeopening is that what's happening i understand real estate has been a big driver in the activity there >> sure. starting with the types of businesses that are opening. you're seeing things like bars and sandwich shops, massage therapists and also those sorts of categories definitely lead the charge in the new openings as well as reopenings.

i think there's something there in terms of people who may transition into different careers and going after ideas that they previously may not have done before you mentioned as well realize. the pandemic home dining frenzy is still going on and it's evidence in the new business openings every state in the every state sought more than a 90% in consume sister entries, so that means that people are in new locations and they're also in a different work and home situation than they were at the beginning of the pandemic, which of course is a great precursor to starting new businesses in different locations. >> is all this sustainable >> it's different to predict, so you see things like digital delivery of people's businesses in beauty, for example you see things like being able

to deliver curbside pickup for even retail, and in the restaurant sector, a lot of the outdoor dining is happening in safe streets is leading a lot of the openings, so many of these factors are brand new, so we'll have to take a look over time, but certainly they can exist in both the pandemic and post-pandemic is it even more activity in april? can you give us a glimpse yet? >> as a data science person, i would definitely not want to share anything until we have a chance to do the analysis. >> what we do see is the trends now with vaccinations in more areas, we expect that to continues.

justin, thank so much. it's been a pleasure. >> absolutely. >> justin normen of yelp with the reopening, can pinterest keep its momentum going? we'll discuss after the earnings stay with us did you know that petco, is now a health and wellness company? i adore their groomers and their vets our physical, social, and mental health cared for in one place. ♪

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welcome back, everybody. we are showing a live look at the white house right now, where president biden is making his way to the podium on the north lawn to speak about the cdc's new recommendations for covid-19 meg tirrell is standingby with more on this, meg, in what we might hear on the president. he seems to be making a point about this walk over to begin this briefings >> yeah, my playback as well is he wearing a mask he is. >> but there he is, taking it off. >> good afternoon. next week i'll be laying out the path ahead to continue our fight against covid-19 to get us to july 4th this is our target date to get

life in america closer to normal and begin to celebrations or independence from the virus, together with our friends and loved ones, as we celebrate independence day before that, i wanted to speak briefly to all of you today about the recent changes announced by the centers for disease control and prevention, the cdc. let me say first while we still have a long way to go in this fight, a lot of work to do in may and june, to get us to july 4th, we've made stunning progress because of all of you, the american people. cases and deaths are down dramatically from where they were when i took office on january 20th, and continues to fall this is particularly true for a group of americans we were most worried about when it came to the virus -- senior citizens when i took office in january,

we were losing literally tens of thousands of our seniors each week grandparents who were loved so dearly, moms and dads, pillars of every community gone by the thousands every day. at that time, less than 1% of seniors were fully vaccinated when i took office today, in less than 100 days, more than 67%, two thirds of our seniors, are now fully vaccinated more than 80% of our seniors have had at least one shot that effort has resulted in a drop of 80% in deaths among american seniors a 70% drop in hospitalizations so instead of losing thousands of seniors each day, we're saving thousands of lives and more and more as each day goes

by by the way, based on reported data, the proportion of seniors who have been vaccinated is essential equal between white and seniors of color s i said from the beginning that we were -- we're going to fight this virus with equity, equity for all. as a matter of fact, if i'm not mistaken, there are more latinos and african-american seniors that have been vaccinated as a percentage than white seniors. these numbers are a sign of progress on that front as well now, last week i anourchsed we had crossed the threshold of 200 million shots. we have now since inauguration day, have given 215 million

shots. anyone 16 years of age or older is not eligible to get the vaccine now, today, immediately. because of the extraordinary progress we have made in fighting this virus, and the progress our scientists have made in learning about how it gets transmitted, earlier today the cdc made an important announcement starting today, if you're fully vaccinated and you're outdoors, you need -- and not in a big crowd, you no longer need to wear a mask. i want to be absolutely clear. if you're in a crowd, like a stadium or at a conference, or a concert, you still need to wear a mask even if you're outside beginning today, gathering with a group of friends in a park, going for a picnic, as long as you are vaccinated and outdoors, you can do it without a mask the cdc is able to make this

announcement, because our scientists are convinced by the data that the odds of getting or giving the virus to others is very, very low if you're both fully vaccinated and out in the open air the cdc sells clarified which outdoor activities are safer or less safe, depending on whether you've been vaccinated the bottom line is clear, if you're vaccinated, you can do more things, more safely, both outdoors as well as indoors. so for those who haven't gotten their vaccinate yet, especially if you're younger, or think you don't need it, this is another great reason to go get vaccinated now now. yes, the vaccines are about saving your life, but also the lives of the peopl