it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc. here is the top five at 5:00 the big stock rally rolling on and the earnings rolling out and covid in retreat. and the path forward set to take another major step. the fda prepares to green light pfizer's factvacancies for youn candidates. and china gives tesla a hard look. are you ready for football online

amazon and the nfl looking to kickoff the streaming deal one year earlier than planned. big tech break up. bill and melinda gates announce they are splitting up. it is tuesday, may 4th, 2021 this is "worldwide exchange" on cnbc good morning, good afternoon or good evening. welcome from wherever in the world you are watching i'm brian sullivan thanks for joining us on this tuesday. here is how your money and investments look as we kickoff this morning not a lot of indication of which way the markets want to go let's call the futures flat. dow futures down 15. the dow and s&p 500 rose yesterday. nasdaq was down just a bit you had big time winners to kickoff the trading month of may.

ethereum up 11% yesterday. it is up slightly now to 33.13 oil up again yesterday oil stocks oih etf rose 5%. it is down a bit right now big start to the month of may. a lot of growing discussion with warren buffett and others about bonds. you heard warren buffett talk to becky about it and the fed heads on tape about it with that in mind, we are not seeing a big move in bond-year-old. 10-year has been stuck at 1.62%. how can we not talk about wood lumber prices. if you are not paying attention, this is incredible the price of lumber just continues to rock on year-to-date, price of lumber, osb oriented strand board, up

8 81%. it was about $600 late last year this all means, of course, the price of anything made with wood, you know, houses many of you may be looking to throw a deck on your home will be paying more we heard the story of a lumber retailer selling their wood back to the wholesaler so they can sell it back to another customer at a higher price. things have gone nuts in the world of wood. let's go now around the world as well. a mixed picture in asia. nikkei and shanghai lower at 1%. hang seng and kospi up germany down a little bit and france and the uk brightly higher now to the top stories india crossing another grim

threshold in the intensifying covid out of break. the country reporting 20 million cases as of today. india's first case was detected in january of 2020 they did not cross 10 million total infections until december. the next million in the last five months. mostly last month. there is a little bit of good news officials claim that infections have seen a drop since hitting 400,000 daily cases on friday. meantime the fda is expected to authorize the pfizer vaccine for kids 12 to 15 years old. according to reports, that decision expected to be announced as early as next week. those reports and more could be lowering the threshold biy the fda to kids younger by this fall. tesla reportedly trying to

win over regulators in china according to reuters, the company is making a scrutiny over safety and customer complaints tesla is boosting the officials talks as it is cracking down on big and powerful companies, especially in the big technology sector tesla shares not moving on the news. now to the markets and your money. stocks keep rising on economic optimism and it may be one of if not the strongest economies in america of all time. for much of the country, anyway. adding fuel to the bounceback fire, the atlanta fed gdp index coming out yesterday, the gross domestic product, entire american economy, could rise 14%. that's against only and i'm using air quotes if you are

listening on the radio, of an averages estimate of growth of 8% by economists that we polled. obviously, there are millions still out of work and still closed schools around the country. for most of america, the economy is booming that could mean another huge jump in corporate earnings 14%! for more on this, we are joined by the sethi company's rob morgan rob, we have been doing this a long time. as we talked about a 14% growth quarter? >> you know, brian, it almost reads like a misprint or sounds like some emerging asian markets gdp growth in a you way, it is not surprising based on some of the fundamentals we have seen from analysts out there this is a very unusual year for

market analysts because they have been raising their expectations on earnings growth. usually analysts start out too optimistic and cut estimates they are raising them this year. that would imply you periodly g see what you get from the atlanta fed. >> rob it is an unsustainable number. it is a bounceback number. it is trillions in spending. it is low rates. it is the perfect con flagration if you will. that is why stocks reacted will the earnings boom continue or will it be a one-quarter wonder >> i think it will continue, brian. we're certainly well into first quarter earnings we're two-to-three weeks into

that and predicting s&p 500 companies grow earnings 6%. that should be the biggest number per quarter since they started tracking in 2002 if the atlanta fed is right or the peer group is right with second quarter gdp growth, that is in july when we see second quarter earnings that will be great, too. the long run, stocks -- growth in stock prices follows a growth in earnings. so, we have the stock market that we have a pretty good one. >> yeah, we have a very good one personal here. maybe when you start to look at the numbers. 31 times trailing numbers. that is trailing that number will get smaller the earnings as a denominator have gone up your job is buy low and sell high or sell higher. if europe is behind us by a

couple of months, in their vaccine rollout and full reopening plans, maybe europe is a better opportunity in some ways you are supposed to buy when things still don't look perfect. are you looking anywhere else around the world for opportunities, rob >> well, i think, you know, u.s. investors looking for international investments. this is a pretty good time across the board because more than likely there will be pressure on the dollar it is not going to plummet it should sag. generally, that gives a tailwind to u.s. investors investing in international stocks we don't really pick specific companies. you know, certainly a broad etf that attracts international stocks would be like the efa is a good place to go >> you know, we have this atlanta fed number at 14%.

it is an estimate. wow. holy smokes. some fed heads talk about inflation. warren buffett and charlie munger talking to becky over the weekend with the virtual meeting. jim bullard said we could hit 75% vaccination and we could taper in the rates we could hit that number based on math in july. is there any chance, any risk, i guess, if you want to call it that, rob, that the fed reverses course and starts to raise rates a lot earlier than the market thinks that could be the temper tantrum that rocks the world >> that is the biggest risk out there, brian fed watchers are pursing chairman powell's comments

he will at least drop hints that the $120 billion bond buyback program will be tapered. the most recent fed meeting would have been a perfect opportunity for that the commentary will stay the course when those comments first come out, i would expect we'll see some type of minor pull back in stocks >> rob morgan of sethi good to see you on the tuesday morning. we'll see. maybe not the summer of love, but higher rates rob, thank you very much >> thanks, brian let's hope it is a summer of love when we come back, as the economy booms, many parts of it struggle to find what it needs why we're on the verge of a crucial shortage in one big area you may never think about. and your morning rbi is a

riddle when is five greater than 370? the answer all boiling down to a couple of the biggest companies out there. and later on, a unicorn on the block. the founder and ceo of capsule is here. he is here to breakdown that new valuation. we're back right after this. for skin that never holds you back don't settle for silver #1 for diabetic dry skin* #1 for psoriasis symptom relief* and #1 for eczema symptom relief* gold bond champion your skin

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all right. welcome back time for a check on the big money movers stock number one smile direct club. shares dropping after the company experienced a systems outage last month due to a cybersecurity incident a hack it could have a material impact on the second quarter results. one disclosure nbc nightly news investigated the complaints from customers in february and they accused publishing false information and seeking $3 billion in damages. under armour settling an s.e.c. probe into the act accounting $9 million in fines. it pulled forward sales of k

existing orders. stock number three irobot maker of the robot vacuum cleaners the stock is down due to the rising cost of parts and shipping. fed officials sounding the inflation alarm. will jay powell react with higher rates or keep his foot on the gas pedal of the economy >> announcer: today's big number 38.1%. that's how much new bankruptcy filings dropped during the 12-month period ending in march over the prior year according to the administrative office of u.s. courts. among the reasons for the decline? a drop in personal expenses, increased government benefits and moratoriums on ectnsndviio a foreclosures

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welcome back there's a crisis brewing in chemicals between shutdowns, lockdowns, a surge in demand and big-time problems in the supply chain. che chemicals, stuff you never think about, but go into what you buy or own, are in short supply. it could cause a huge headache for manufacturers and higher costs for you, the consumer. let's bring in jeremy paford

we have been on the ground and talking about this stuff people will start to care because the prices of things we buy every day may start to soar. tell us how bad the crisis is starting to be in the chemical world. >> thank you for having me on, brian. you mentioned the three really issues right now production issues across the supply chain we had logistics issues in getting materials from point a to point b to point c. you have the surge in demand that led to a cascade of price issues across the chain. when you look at it from the chemical chain, it is like one of those crazy walls you see on a crowded show if there is something going on in one market, there is something upstream or downstream

that is connected to that. it is connected across the board. yes h we had issues across the board glycerin hand sanitizers and moisturizer. that has seen soaring prices epoxy resin. good for adhesives we had all kinds of things going on from a upstream standpoint. chlorine is a chemical to that we had prices increases. we had people telling us this is not a functions market anyway. there are so many that cannot get the supply they need this has -- >> this is so important. jeremy, a lot of the viewers are thinking i don't care. i have plenty of windex under

the counter. i'm fine no, no, no some of this stuff goes into drugs. pharmaceuticals that rely you on this every day this is not just about superglu and paints there are critical materials on the lists. >> absolutely. i know we have talked at icis with managers in the past couple months they said it has never been more challenging right now to procure materials. when you buy the materials your business needs to make packages and materials for pharmaceuticals. it is about negotiating price. right now, securing that supply of materials you need to make your product for the consumer has never been more challenging than right now

we have some that told us a week-to-week proposition to make sure they get the materials they need sometimes they don't >> it was literally the perfect storm, jeremy. not only was it covid and the beginning when people thought it would collapse the opposite was happening the storms lake charles and houston area devastated by multiple storms back-to-back-to-back-to-back we are in lake charles in december they were out of power for about a month in certain parts any indication this is going to get better any time soon >> you bring that up we were on the way to recovery to that and then the big freeze in february in houston 48 hours below zero. that knocked had to restart. we are in the process of getting

back we need good weather months to get through the summer to start to rebuild inconvventory fo restocking and we can see lower pricing possibly toward the second half of the year. that is a huge if. we are going to summer we're going back into hurricane season. >> yeah. let's hope that, to your point, it is a boring summer, with the weather. the backlog and the prices are stunning jeremy pafford, thank you very much. >> thank you for having me >> yu ou're welcome. let's step outside with headlines. a tragedy with the overpass collapse phillip mena is in new york with more >> brian, good morning 23 people are dead and dozens more injured after the train

overpass collapsed in mexico city according to the city's mayor, the support beam gave way last night leaving the cars dangling from the overpass. the mayor said at least 70 people injured in addition to those killed the mexico city metro is the busiest in the world. 30 million people are in the path of the dangerous weather this morning our dallas station confirming that people were taken to the hospital, but no word on injuries with the tornado. earlier, this tornado was caught on camera south of dallas. there are reports of widespread damage in north texas. in georgia, a tornado confirmed in the atlanta area. at least two people were killed there. finally, the british royal marines are testing out a futuristic way to board boats. royal marines were trying out jet suits to navigate from

ship-to-ship the developers of the suit said the only other way to land marines on boats is by helicopter this was also tested by paramedics in the wild getting "iron man" vibes from that. >> very cool we were promised jet packs not only a good band, but the real deal. face ma phillip mena, you and i can go out and do a live shot and strap some of those on >> human drones. sign me up, brian. >> cool stuff. get the cameraman up there forget the drone phillip mena, have a great day digging in over tax hikes as

president biden and mitch mcconnell figure out how to pay for more spending proposed by the whe us 'rba imoments.

so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. will the rally roll on a huge new forecast for economic growth has investors optimistic as corporate earnings continue to knock it out of the park. could higher prices ruin the party? more fed heads announce the

issue on inflation or will jay powell keep his foot on the gas pedal? and bill and melinda gates call it quits after nearly 30 years of marriage. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc at 5:30 ♪ ♪ welcome or welcome back. good tuesday morning or evening. i'm brian sullivan thank you for joining us let's get right to it. here is how your money and the markets look as we are about halfway through the 5:00 a.m. hour it is exactly 5:30 a.m. eastern time the dow and s&p futures not doing a lot. the nasdaq is now the one to watch. nasdaq, the only major index down yesterday to kick off the trading month of may futures are down again

nasdaq futures are off 46. losses are accelerating a bit. not a lot. something to watch in the middle of all this, a lot of growing discussion about inflation and higher prices and bonds. you heard buffett and charlie munger talk to becky about it over the weekend and there are a lot of fed heads on the tape. let's look at the 10-year. 1.62%. increasingly, we're starting to see a disconnect with the bond market is saying and what jay powell and some of the other big fed big wigs, he said, rubber baby buggy bumpers i got it out i'll stick with small words. let's stick with inflation as we check the top stories and speaking of, tom barkin says he sees higher inflation moving through the rest of the year

higher than now. b barkin laying out the signals he is seeing while expectspec speah cnbc yesterday >> if you look at the elements of the pec, you will see several of them with an increase you will see a lot that aren't what you see is i'm watching expectations and market expectations those have firmed. i say there is nothing in one of those metrics that looks like a breakout in inflation. >> now it wasn't just that barkin added those inflation pressures to subside next year as economic dynamics change. the so-called transitory inflation we keep hearing about as the economy returns to a more normal state as opposed to the

huge surge off the shutdown last year in the meantime, president biden and mitch mcconnell are squaring off over the infrastructure and tax hike proposals. the senate minority leader says the proposals are a red line for republicans, effectively killing any deal on infrastructure spending the president set a deadline of may 31st to find common ground with republicans on infrastructure or try to push it through with just democratic support. and amazon and nfl bumping up the start date for the streaming deal for thursday night football that agreement will take hold next year as opposed to 2023 the nfl previously announced the amazon rights to the thursday night games would begin in '23 we will get a streaming game on thursday nights starting next year instead we have more to do coming up, watch out cvs and

walgreens. it is not just amazon looking to steal a piece of your business pie. we'll chat with one online pharmacy start-up that is worth more than $1 billion first as we head to break, three other big stories happening now. number one apple and epic game trial. apple countered it built the app store and it sets the rules. epic is the maker of "fortnite" and they are unhappy about the app store policies. two, the financial times reports the biggest banks of the nation suggested large corporate clients should move out of deposits and into money market funds. unusual step that comes as cash has flooded bank balance sheets forcing banks to hold more capital if not too much capital. and story three. the nyse taking more steps to

get more people back to the floor. fully vaccinated workers can return changes go into effect on monday we will see if the workers do, too. dow futures off 11 we're back after this. these days you have to keep everything moving and reinvent the wheel. with a hybrid, you can do both. that's why manufacturers are going hybrid with ibm. with watson on a hybrid cloud factories can use ai to automate the little things so they can focus on the next big thing. businesses that want to innovate at scale are going with a smarter hybrid cloud using the technology and expertise of ibm.

welcome back it is time for the daily covid vaccination update as of yesterday, more than 40% of the adult population in the

united states is fully vaccinated 56% of us have received at least one dose covid cases and hospitalizations are crashing across the country. even hard hit michigan has seen a big drop lately. good news. there is one thing to be concerned about right now. the pace of vaccinations is beginning to slow dramatically according to morgan stanley, pfizer and moderna had a sizable dropoff in vaccination usage from the peak. pfizer down 18%. moderna is down 11% from the peak max maxing out those over 18 who want to get the jab. something to watch as we return to normal and thankfully covid cases and hospitalizations and mortalities are way, way down from the peak. good news for you this morning staying with health care there's a new unicorn out there

in the sector. capsule. pulling in $300 million in the latest funding round pushing the six-year online pharmacy estimate to nearly $1 billion. the growth comes as the pharmacy business is a more crowded space. with everyone from amazon to walmart stepping in. how do they compete? let's find out we are joined by founder and ceo eric kinariwala. eric, good to have you back on let's talk about capsule we said it it is crowded. amazon, target, walmart. everyone wants to be in the pharmaceutical space what makes you so desirable that investors are willing to throw another $300 million at you? >> good to be here good morning capsule is, as you know, it is different. capsule is very desirable. what we have done over the last six years has been to build the

very best experience for consumers to get and manage medication we made it extraordinarily simple for people to not only get medications the same day and fulfill them and know why their doctor prescribed them, but really make it really simple for people to manage medications on the ongoing basis so they are healthy and have what they need at their finger tips what we have done andin investors are investing in capsule is what's next the future of health care is simple and seamless and interc interconnected capsule is building that one-stop-shop. the one place where you access medications and all of the things you need to do in your digital health care life from one simple place >> here's what is fascinating about the pharmaceutical industry it is a $400 billion business in the united states alone.

the online is only 2%. smaller online than pretty much every other mainstream industry. why not? i understand there is -- you want to talk to the pharmacist it is medicine you have to be careful it seems like the on lline penetration would be small eric, the barriers are something you are trying to breakdown. >> the category is $400 billion. less than 2% digital capsule has been pioneering the wave to move digital over the last six years it is getting your medication and managing our health care differently from other commerce. it is different from buying batteries. you need a different model you need a different model to everybody is the modern consumer with the health care needs

you need to combine the power of the human with the power of technology that requires a completely different technology infrastructure to operate. we have built that over the last six years from scratch when we look at what are the categories of digital commerce that have not moved online, but rapidly moving online. it is health care and financial services and real estate things that are regulated an require a different way of operating. so, while there are a number of people that are in the pharmacy category, there is no one that has built the entire technology infrastructure from scratch to be able to serve the needs of the modern consumer not only with the pharmacy needs, but broader set of digital health care needs that is what the future is the future is purpose built and purpose built from scratch that's an enormously difficult and expensive undertaking that

we have built over the last six years to do. >> eric, a lot of us, i know i have, used telemedicine over last year. doctors close or impossible to get an appointment there is a limitation to doctor on demanded or teledoc you can get this, but not that as far as the medication could be addictive or dangerous. do you see the industry -- i know you are getting into that as well -- shifting to where the options for telemedicine are only going to grow >> our view is that health care will be hybrid it will be digital it will be in the physical world. people will, the same way many things in your life are and people will go to the setting of care that is appropriate for the need capsule's job and mission and what we're building is to make it easier to access that care wherever you need it

digitally or in-person care or through a combination of both our job is to facilitate that and make it simple so it is in the palm of your hand when you need it. we believe we don't think in-person care is going away we don't think telemedicine will stop capsule is at the center of that >> eric kinariwala we love to talk about entrepreneurs taking on the big guys out there certainly in a competitive space and adding jobs best of luck to you. keep us informed have a great day >> thanks for having me. you're very welcome. let's switch gears to the human news that shocked everybody yesterday. bill and melinda gates are divorcing after nearly 30 years of marriage. this is no ordinary marriage billions of dollars in the bill

and melinda gates foundation may be on the line robert frank joining us with more robert, we are not trying to be a gossip network this is one of the most high propfile and wealthy couples wit billions of dollars in good work this news out of left field. >> reporter: look, it affects assets let's look at microsoft. those shares fairly stable in pre-market trading bill gates owns 1.3% of that company. now it is about $23 billion of his $130 billion fortune the bigger impact is likely at cascade investment that is a family holding company as well as the bill and melinda gates foundation according to the divorce petition filed by me melinda in king county, washington

yesterday. they will separate assets according to the separation agreement. cascade has big positions in canadian national, deere, auto nation and many other publicly traded companies cascade is the largest farm land owner in america with over 250,000 acres. they co-own the four seasons hotel chain. the gates foundation is believed to be the largest in the world with the $50 billion endowment they give away about $5 billion a year it is no longer a marital asset. it is not subject to any kind of division control could become a big issue. the gates' saying in a statement they will quote continue to work together at the foundation non-profit experts say it will be difficult for them to agree which causes to support and who is in charge and how to invest all of that could become a

source of contention and have big impacts on health and education policy around the world. as we saw with covid, the bill and melinda gates foundation plays a big role in global health and education and all of these areas. watching there with the foundation as well as what happens with the more than $70 billion in assets. many publicly traded in cascade. brian. >> yeah. listen, again, it is not the first one, robert. we had jeff and mckenzie bezos we are not trying to be tmz gossip about their private lives. these are coupling that influence major charitable policies and tax contributes and corporate and philanthropy efforts. these can cause shakeups in what

you are talking about. it sounds like the early read and the nice and polite tweet that the couple put out indicates that the foundation, at least right now, should just roll on as is. >> reporter: yeah. to be honest, they say they will work together and we have every belief and hope they will do so. they do great things at the foundation there are many groups that receive money and many countries around the world that receive money from the foundation that will wonder. will one of them split off and form their own foundation? will one of them be more interested in education? one more interested in health care will bill gates split off and divert assets away from the other two? and again, given the impact of the $50 billion endowment with more of his money -- they will

give away most or all of the rest of the $130 billion you have warren buffett's billions coming in over time, there is a huge amount of money that still has to roll in the big questions from groups and countries that receive that money on where it goes >> robert, sorry to jump in. any tax implications we all talk about filing jointly or separately with our spouses the bidens talking about higher taxes on the rich. the estate tax is there a longer term tax implication for the country sn here >> reporter: it will be interesting with the step up in capital gains. that allows all these people to have the lifetime gains and huge amount of wealth amassed and created go untaxed during the process of their lives and as it is given to charity. a great thing to give to

charity. that leaves his $130 billion whether you talk about jeff bezos and his fortune. the question is if step up in capital gains is repealed, as biden would like to, that could have a big impact on his fortune and all of the large founder fortunes. >> robert frank on a big human story. robert, good to see you. see you on cnbc. take care. all right. on deck, there's big and there's really big the morning rbi is up next the answer to the riddle earlier is when is 5 more than 370 hmmm the rbi. if you haven't already, subscribe to our podcast it's good. we're back after this.

with a bang, energy and change came to every part of our universe. seismic or small, it continues. change is all around us. shaped by technology and human ingenuity, we can make it work for you and your business.

today's rbi is a random but interesting fact about how big the biggest of the big have become the answer is big. it is the answer to the earlier riddle when is 5 greater than 370 here's the answer. while we highlighted something like this a few months ago, much has changed as stocks soared and we pluck this with the tweet of the wealth of common sense thank you. with the big moves, the combined market cap of apple, amazon, google, microsoft and facebook is now you $8.3 trillion five companies worth more than $8 trillion. add context to this. at the peak in 2007, when it was the biggest company in the world at the time, exxonmobil had a market cap of just $520 billion. it seems quaint. it is just about half of what

facebook is now. it is also more than twice the size, by the way, of the entire economy of germany $8.3 trillion. check this out the combined market cap of those five horsemen of heft, as we will call them, is now about the same size of the combined valuation of the lower 370 stocks in the s&p 500. nobody may care. these are all innovative and incredible companies investors love maybe it is time for standard & poor's 500 to create a new index. shall we offer up the idea of the s&p 5? you're welcome, s&p. random, but interesting. 5 more than 370. back to the broader markets and welcome in gel kilburg

congratulation, jeff we with wil we withl put your feet to the fire are you thinking jostocks are a good buy >> i'm constructive on the marketplace. it is a dual threat situation. we are excited about justin fields what we see the dual threat is the expectation of earnings season nearly 22 net percent have been beaten that with the data it goes back to the conversation with you on cnbc about the rapid acceleration of the vaccination and reopening of the global economy. that optimism is higher for u.s. equity i remain optimistic and look at vix. calm waters are ahead. short-term, sully.

that is a risk on issue here >> i don't know if you looked at my notes i was going to hammer you on the vix. a vix under 20 there is a direct correlation with the complacent and vix and positive equity? >> a week or two, i would give you a hat on that. that compplacency is bothersome here we are in the month of may. i know the nasdaq is sold off a little bit tangible names you are seeing assets attracted. with the 50-day move of the vix at 20, we are still under the 50-day moving average. the options market is really highlighting the fact that we see calm waeters there is a lot of conversation from the fed and taxes, but

short-term, the market it moving higher due to the mafact that t market is moving with the wonderful data >> wonderful to hear from you, jeff kilburg congrats we will wake you up earlier now in chicago because of it jeff, thank you. >> thanks, pal take care. like that, we're done. we're going to see you tomorrow on "worldwide exchange." we have an awesome rbi on electric cars. you want to hear it. e u then "squawk" and the gang pick it up next have a great day

so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this.

we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. good morning ready to reopen. new york, new jersey and connecticut among the states planning to drop covid

restrictions this month. we'll take a look at the stocks poised to benefit. benefit further in this case. pfizer is set to report this hour the fda expected to approve the use of the covid vaccine for kids as young as 12 and up from there. that could be as soon as next week. a big tech breakup bill and melinda gates are splitting up after 27 years of marriage it is tuesday, may 4th "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ ♪ good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with carry-on joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin.