hello and welcome to "power lunch. 266,000, all the jobs created in april. some expectations were as high as a million so what went wrong? stocks are loving that disappointment markets gaining, especially the tech stocks because the fed might stay on the sidelines for longer and if interest rates fall will that push potential home buyers into the market? we'll talk to an annual igs

saying we are not in a bubble. not right now at least "power lunch" starts right now hi, melissa. good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler matheson bad news in the job market is good news for the stock market today. bring in mike santelli for a look at what's moving and why. mike >> investors seeming to find enough to like in the underlying jobs number or less to fear without a hot number and see the s&p 500 year to date we are tentatively looking to break out to an all new all-time high does it look like a milder version of what we saw back here back in march? and then finally did break higher we'll see. we didn't have the energy built

up financials versus tech either or. it's reflation and fast growth and tech lower yields, mur interest in the growth stocks. financials outperforming but today both are on the rise together so not necessarily always a zero sum game interestingly bond yields with a quick rush down and then hire. expedia is a big mover today very good earnings trends of bookings and confirms on the recovery path to get to earnings of 2019 on the downside take a look at monster beverage, a huge growth stock winner over multiple years. clearly not leveraged to the recovery they said the short and of aluminum cans might be an issue and pressure margins that is an interesting wrinkle

here, tyler. >> thank you bond yields also on the move after the surprising jobs report rick santelli tracking the action >> lots of u-turns in the marketplace. 266,000 was weak many say it was the seasonal adjustment process and made sense but still good parts to the month. hourly average earnings, prior to covid the high is .6 month over month post-covid crazy my point is today's pre-covid would have been a new high and something to pay attention to on the wage side. if you can't find the workers it's not surprising wages are going up got down to 146 in 10s an intraday level not seen since early march and year to date on

10s end of march we hit the high close at 174 we have gone flat since then the dollar index with a volatile day. looks like the lowest close since the end of february. back to you. >> thank you. the jobs market a massive miss, 266,000 jobs versus an expected 1 million unemployment climbing to 6.1 what went wrong? steve liesman is here to break it down. steve? >> thanks. the blame for the big jobs miss spread far and wide ranging from high unemployment benefits to health in the workplace concerns and a jobs report that may have missed the mark about the economy. 266,000. up to 6.1. average earnings arestrong labor force participation ticking up to 61.7

janet yellen rejected the idea and said that autos have been hurt by supply shortages. >> starting up an economy again, trying to get it back on track after a pandemic in which there shall a lot of supply bottlenecks is going to be i think a bumpy process but i really don't think the major factor is the extra unemployment. >> supporters of yellen say that it ticked up to nearly three quarters of a million the number of folks back boointo the workfe in the last two months and most economists despite getting it wrong quick to suggest that the big bump they expected in april is coming in may >> sfooef, i have a question for you, if you will

>> sure. >> this short fall in labor, the shortage, does that give any credence to the notion that wage inflation might be stronger until people are actually back in the workforce that the shortage is more acute? >> certainly the idea that you have to compete on one level with higher unemployment benefits and coax people back boo the workforce and mismatch there might be job openings in places where people aren't living but this idea that unemployment benefits responsible, leisure and hospitality is not a high wage sector and had almost all the job growth this month and that undermines that idea that it's high unemployment benefits. >> thank you tyler? >> thank you. >> thank you does the jobs report change the narrative on the market?

let's bring in ron insani. he's so senior i just can't stand it stephanie link, no way a junior. chief investment strategist and portfolio manage ir with hightower. welcome to you both. ron, in the notes you say you don't believe the numbers. you think they're a mistake. why? >> they might be i tend to go with steve's latest explanation or last piece of the explanation that, look, we are seeing people come back boo the labor force dramatically we have the other issue that's not discussed whether or not women staying at home to oversee the children's hybrid schooling yet to end is constraining participation so i think there's noise in the data. i don't necessarily agree that it's the higher unemployment benefits keeping people from going back to work nobody wants to stay on the roll

forever so i think may have missed the number and also missed the trend having been out and about lately in new york city and new jersey you see that business is picking up and that people particularly in the hospitality jobs are back and hot high paying as steve pointed out and will see stronger figures down the road. >> we have a thought about the jobs report today or maybe earnings and why the market doesn't seem to be row responding to great earnings particularly or veto not so great earnings why? >> yeah. i'll just touch one point on the nonfarm payroll numbers and the revisions. certainly disappointing but it's back ward looking and you have to look at initial claims the leading endindicator and that's higher weekly staffing is going up.

and so i think it's kind of silly that you would believe manufacturing fell 18,000 because you do have -- yes, maybe chip shortages but you look at the regional manufacturing series, the pmi, isms, i think the numbers will be revised higher. on earn, we have a good run. so an expectations were quite high headed into earnings and comparisons were so easy and so i think people say that they look good because the comps were so easy but i think you will see strong double digit earnings in the next couple of quarters so i think you buy the weakness especially when the earnings are going higher and the reports are good. >> what are you adding to given that, what you just said i agree that of course they're higher and spectacular

what would you expect? >> but you see, when they're higher and the stocks go down and estimates go up it is only a matter of time seeing catch up, right? i hadded to caterpillar. had it a long time and blew it away every single metric and margins up 300 basis points year of year earnings, rev knew and didn't have pricing power yet they will this summer with a much bigger operating leverage s story and at&t blew it away. i like the ag space for 2021 they beat but didn't raise and then zoetis is silly yesterday i can find plenty of names but you have to do the homework. good reports and sells are buys. >> ron, you say you're not overly bearish or bullish. the recovery trade is still on

i wonder how you filter into the investment thinking the global variants of the disease and how it is affecting india most pointedly and brazil, south america and maybe soon southeast asia. >> it certainly prevents a fully synchronized global recovery but looking in europe that may be six weeks behind the u.s. with a cyclical and financial bent to their respective markets at considerably lower valuations there are opportunities that abound there, as well. so from an emerging markets perspective i think you have to be extremely selective and you need to i think not look at em as a monolithic asset class but to pick opportunities like stocks europe i think looks pretty good to us getting valuations that are discounted relative to u.s.

and a cyclical play as europe starts to catch up to the u.s. on vaccinations and economic recovery and more leverage there. i am long dogecoin and lottery tickets to pay off in the short run after yesterday's "snl" experience that's one way to play it. >> i think that's a good one and the reference there is to e lochb musk hosting "snl," correct? >> yes and we'll see. >> we are all looking forward to that be ready to trade. steph, final thought here. you are a stock picker in the stock draft. a choice on the dow leaders that's boeing. other one is las vegas sands had a bit of a rough week since picking it last thursday but you are in fourth place out of ten any thoughts on where we are right now since the stock draft?

>> it is a marathon, not a sprint as you very well know. >> true. >> both reopen names so it takes a couple of quarters for the recovery and the reopen to filter through but i'm encouraged with las vegas sands with macau visitation up 40% in march and a strong number. revenues as a whole up 18% boeing reopen, get the 737 max and the production rates improving i think the free cash flow will actually improve and the stock trades on free cash flow and china recertifies second half of this year. >> yes, sir? yes? >> just real quick, one, stephanie is wildly bullish on the economy. i'm taking a cross country trip

next week. >> ping me let me know. >> happy mother's day to all mothers. ron and stephanie. >> thank you. >> absolutely. >> melissa the lowest supply since the 1970s. the most new homes sold since 2006 record high prices and rising rents, is this the recipe of a bubble morgan stanley says no we'll break down why next. cathy woods midas touch not so golden in 2021 until today. the top ten holdings in the ark fund higher. we have that story and more. back in two. these days you have to keep everything moving and reinvent the wheel. with a hybrid, you can do both. that's why manufacturers are going hybrid with ibm. with watson on a hybrid cloud factories can use ai to automate the little things so they can focus on the next big thing. businesses that want to innovate

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1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217 the housing market is the hottest it's been since 2006 and got people using the "b" meaning bubble home prices hitting a record median price of $329,000 up from march 17% from march 2020. supply coming in 1.7 million homes for sale representing 2-month supply of available homes. new listings selling on average in 18 days and that is a record pace consumer confidence meantime falling with 48% of consumers saying it is a good time to buy a house. despite this my next guest said he has a strong conviction we are not in a housing bubble. joining me now head of fix income research at morgan stanley. great to have you with us. >> thank you

great to be here. >> what is missing from calling this a bubble? what is present in 2006 that we don't have today >> i think the key thing is that kind of mortgage credit. if you look back to what happened in 2006, the pre crisis bubble, we had a large number of products that we call affordability products that cha characterized, had products that required home prices to keep going up and the availability of credit be continuously be very available. those types of products accounted for 40% of all mortgage finance in that period. those types of products are about 2% now so much, much low reliance on affordable products so what we now have is a much more supply demand situation we have enormous demand from the

millennial generation with new rates of household formation data showed that the rate of annual formation is 1.55 million and that's a demand for shelter. we are running at a much bigger number at the same time as you just pointed out there's just no supply we are at an all-time low so supply low demand high. prices are going to be good and on a strong, healthy foundation of housing market that does not have the layers of mortgage risk that used to be there. >> right people also have a lot of savings thanks to the pandemic mortgage rates are low what is your forecast for rates at this point? they seem to have settled down

in the range and how important is that in the affordability component? housing prices keep going higher if mortgage rates stay at bay. >> our expectations at this point is end of the year at 1.7% is current forecast and unless rates go much higher from a dramatic fashion in a short period of time affordability is fine if rates go up by another 25, 30 basis points that doesn't dramatically alter the scenario for home prices. >> how should we think about the areas that have gained thanks to this dynamic and those that lost in the pandemic? you read time and time again particularly about new york city, it is dead and now coming back can we have a city coming back on the real estate front when we have this strong housing market in the suburbs >> i think there's some truth to

that there's a migration from cities like new york and san francisco into some of the outer suburbs of them but one thing to keep in mind is that the migration that we are seeing is also not too far away not like people leave new york city and going to far away state but within commutable kind of a distance that's one point the second point is even though the home prices in less densely populated suburbs have been faster than the, say, places densely populated like new york city we think this over time will revert back so i am not going to say that the -- as long as we have a continued demand for shelter and a lack of availability of such ply i am

not going to say that there is a threat to the new york city marngt. >> that's good to hear but in terms of demand/supply dynamic, people during the pandemic wanted more space so now that there's a reopening going on how do you think about going on that dynamic that's stressing the supply aspect of the equation going away >> actually supply issue goes back not just from the pandemic. the lack of supply is there for -- you have to look back last ten-plus years and we have really not built a lot of homes. particularly single family homes so we have -- very different plane of supply. not just over a year but for quite sometime year and not just because of pandemic. >> sure but there's a certain amount to revert back to

pre-pandemic levels at some point. no >> it's a little bit of that but we thinkthat what we are simpl saying here not that home prices will continue appreciating at the double-digit rates, pace of appreciation will slow but what we are saying is we are not in a bubble that we saw in 2006, 2007 that led to the financial crisis we are nowhere close to that scenario. >> thank you so much for coming on we appreciate it tyler? don't knock on wood? despite a rough few days for cathie wood the ark innovation etf is rebounding today. is she reigning supreme? we'll discuss that. tilray soaring with a double upgrade. how about a doobie upgrade no

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welcome back we spoke this week about the spac slowdown. ipos haven't done better the etf of renaissance is down 20% in thepast 3 months. some top holdings are having a rough week check out peloton down 14% uber down 12 crowd strike down 7. the ipo etf wasn't the only one hit. ark innovation is facing resistance until today up 1.3%. the start of the week seems the crown is slipping from the queen's head but the etf trying to stage a recovery today. for more let's bring in kate rooney kate >> ark's innovation it etf recovering today but it's weighing on cathie wood's flagship fun the ark innovation fund is down

more than 9% so farr this week and seen about $760 million in outflows the etf has been a huge outperformer in the last year and almost doubled the dow woods' fund is seem as a barometer for the tech sector. the ark weakness a worrisome data point for some investors this week and seems to have found support with the rebound today and also weighing on the sector is big tech stock just that suggesting growth for some names appears to be priced in ark's winning strategy has been stay-at-home tech stocks and tesla. that's the big one investors soured on zoom among the top ten ark holdings wood though is known for the long-term investing strategy

ark buying up twillow and teladoc. back to you. >> thank you make shire to stick around for "closing today" and cathie wood will sit down with them at 3:00 p.m. eastern time. tyler? ahead on "power lunch," betting on bud double upgrade on t ilray. is weed the way to go? disappointing jobs number putting the rebound at risk or at least in question all while facing a major worker shortage former new orleans mayor marc morial will weigh in may is asian-american and pacific islander heritage month and we highlight our own on-air personalities.

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welcome back i'm leslie picker. here's the cnbc covid update the bodies of 750 covid victims are being stored in trucks in brooklyn according to the new york city medical examiner's office. the office said it is working with the families on final burial options the trailers were brought in in the height of the pandemic. the united kingdom is easing international travel restrictions ahead of the summer and restrictions are rating countries as low, medium or high risk low risk countries will be exempt from the quarantine periods. the treasury department is stepping in to help renters avoid eviction nearly $22 billion set aside for

the cause. the move amid a court battle to overturn the cdc eviction know tore yum. americans believe pfizer and moder mod moderna's vaccines are safer than johnson & johnson just 46% of those surveyed said they were confident in the safety of j&j's shot despite u.s. regulators signing off on the vaccine. we are higher across the board, the s&p up by about three quarters of a percent and the nasdaq up by.8%. energy is doing well with materials. and let's get to tyler now with more on the big story of the day. ty >> all right thank you. let's turn back to that big story of the day and that's that disappointing april jobs report.

266,000 well short of nearly 1 million figured to come online let's get reaction of marc morial mr. mayor, good to see you >> thank you. >> what do you think the numbers will be revised higher that is your thinking? >> it points to why there needs to be continued stimulus by the government i don't think the full effect of the american rescue plan is felt in this month's job numbers. and all of these predictions that quick bounce back was most likely is certainly not the case i think it's going to take sometime let's consider the fact that you have many workers concerned about their health before they reenter if you will the job market many single or married women concerned about the child care because schools have not

reopened and may be difficult for child care workers to work in a home due to the risk of covid so it's going to take government intervention along with continued and continued increase in the pace of vaccinations for there to be conferred for people to reenter the workforce. >> there's so many ways to go with this conversation what you just mentioned is interesting to me because there's a certain slice of people who feel that the extension and the generosity of unemployment benefits are one reason why so many workers have stayed on the sidelines. i'm sure there is -- there are some who are doing that but i think what you just mentioned, that is people who are sort of have to stay home because the child care is not solved or don't feel safe going back to the job and plays a part here

and by the way people at home today on disability who have just come off the golf course. so i mean, you know what i'm saying. >> there's a variety of factors. >> yeah. there's a variety of factors. >> too generous unemployment look this enhanced unemployment will run out at some point. i think the important thing is what does it take to go back and build the dynamism of the american economy to benefit all people i'm a strong supporter of the president's infrastructure plan. i think it speaks to the needs of the 21st century. i believe the support of businesses and government and people and the american rescue plan those funds, those if you will stimuli have not been fully injected into the american economy and then the demand side and confidence to go out and

shop, to go out of their home when they sort of gotten used to staying home and they have adjusted the lives in a way to modify their if you will actions to address the covid pandemic. this is a thawing effect i don't think it's an immediate jump or an immediate bounce but i do believe the pace of vaccinations has to continue and i think that there's been a bit of a drag by some americans and i hope there's an increase in vaccinations and will require stimulus and also i think long term we need the investment in infrastructure to ensure that this bounce back is powerful and strong. >> i think most americans -- i think the polls show that most americans are in favor of

investing in infrastructure. they recognize that there are so many roads and bridges and some in your home state or louisiana and certainly you live in the new york area, on the cross bronx you know it needs something and let's talk about vaccinations because a lot of people who are very sensitive to the idea and how would you if you were mayor of a large city which you were how would you be talking to those who are hesitant about getting a vaccine? >> i would encourage them to consult their health care professional and i would also ensure that access to the vaccine is easy. pop-up sites mobile vaccination sites places where you can walk up without making an appointment. it is a combination of access and public information public information campaign that's consistent. that isn't a pressure campaign but is designed to give people information that says, look.

so vaccine is perfect. but the risk of infection and death from covid is greater than the risk over side effects from the three vaccines that have entered the market and requires i think also people will also respond to whether their friends, family membersand co-workers get the vaccine so we need a continued pace. we need a continued public education campaign and also, i would appeal to people in this way getting the vaccine's not just about me it's about keeping my loved ones safe my friends safe. my family members safe so it is a part of the responsibility in a free nation. >> yeah. let me just jump in there if i might to get to a sound bite of earlier today. i would say this i have been double vaccinated. and i would say that one of the really compelling arguments for doing it is you yourself feel

safer. you yourself feel more confident going out into the world going to a restaurant. i'm going to the yankee game tonight. they have social distancing and things there but when you get double vaccinated or you get the one shot from -- you feel more confident and that is just a good thing let me play a sound bite. >> it's a great thing. >> yeah. you feel better. right? so let's listen to this bite from guy premise talking about not just getting african-americans into the workplace but getting them advancing through the workplace. it is still a problem. let's listen. >> most technology companies, 3% or so of the worves is black but 13.4% of the population and really helping those individuals, help themselves, create this cycle of support so that's the first thing and take individuals to put them into the cue rated cohorts so that they

can share ideas so finance people share ideas with markets people, with product people. >> marc, i used up somp of the time talking there that i don't have time for a full answer but i assume you are fully in agreement that there are things to do to advance blacks up the chain of - >> so much that needs to be done and corporate ceos have the power to be intentional to make this happen and i look forward to talking to you more about this next time. >> yeah. a lot of them are on it in a way that i don't ever recall in my lifetime marc, great as always to see you. have a great weekend. >> thank you enjoy the yankees. >> thank you, man! playing my hometown team the washington nationals melissa, over to you. up nexts another huge week of earnings ahead of us.

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welcome back to "power lunch. some of the newest stocks on wall street getting the chance to shine this earnings season roblox, lemonade, among the companies opening up the books next week so will the buzzy stocks have a blowout quarter or a bust trading nation team today is craig johnson and danielle shay. danielle, a lot of these companies had a huge debut on the first day and since then they sort of paired the gains including roblox and which you have your eye on. >> yes i have my eye on roblox because it is crack for kids and the

business model is questionable but lucrative. so i'm looking at this one to the upside i think that all the hype around it has given the implied volatility a rise and they can price the spread if we do get a pullback i would be a buyer of the stock. >> palantir that you have been looking on the technical sides of things. can you explain there? >> yeah. so i'm looking at this name specifically because all these software companies have been under pressure lately and this is an example of a head and shoulders top forming here and looks like tuling back to that neckline and breaking through that neckline downside on this stock down to $10 and doesn't look like a great risk/reward from ow perspective and up to the 50-day moving average we failed so from my perspective watching this carefully to the

downside. >> stock down 2% craig and danielle, thank you. for more head to our nation and follow us on twitter. >> thanks. up nengs a budding promans tilray called the merger a perfect match. the analyst will join us next to discuss. and now the latest from trading nation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor.

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. sharing jumping nearly 15% it is a top pick following the merger the stock has had a rough go in the past month, but soared 90% in 2021. owen bennett is joining us now great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> your price target goes to 23 bucks. so what changed almost overnight with the acquisition >> the key thing here, we were buyers prior to the merger and we think the combined company will create an even stronger proposition. so we highlight three things to support the buy. number one, sales growth outlook is very attractive and so 2021 into 2023, we see them growing 33% a year. and in canada industry trends are also set to accelerate and in europe, the combined company for us is checking all sueed.xes for whats ne to so in our view it shouotbeing oi potential to be gnift.and en yot so that may alloentr an is ading of sales 8 d implied price target of .t1 >> and so it sous tobased on t wayt yoscrid it in theote european market ugh h tilray has an

advantage in determines of the phrma side of business, those are sort of just up side options. the core here is that the combined company has the strength in 1.0 and 2.0 products, the vapes and flour derivative products. >> sxexactly. and i think the people confusing poor business performance with poor underlying fundamentals and i don't think that that is the case underlying fundamentals remain attractive and tilray is very well placed to be the mar ke9dket share lear >> and you mentioned if there is a return to strength of peers, that could hinder their grip on the market in terms of market share. is part of the call that just the other players are weak and will remain weak, that they somehow for whatever reason are not as well equipped to compete in this environment? >> yeah, i mean, this goes back to while there has been poorly run businesses in canada the exception is legacy. and when it entered the market of legalization, it took time to

understand the consumer and introduce at specific price points as a result you've seen market share under a lot of pressure the last 18 months and so i think now adding the tilra portfolio into that existing strong equity, market share progression is strong. >> owen, great to get your thoughts thanks and up next, some people are heading back to the office, but many others are not and neveratr from home forever. and make sure to tune into the healthy rueturns summit next week we'll be talking about all things ithn e wew era of health care innovation may 11th

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♪ maybe i didn't love you ♪ ( ♪♪ ) ♪ quite as often as i could have ♪ we're delivering for the earth. by investing in more electric vehicles, reusable packaging, and carbon capture research. making earth our priority. i thought i'd seen it all. ( ♪♪ ) the work from home debate making headlines this week jamie dimon saying working from home just doesn't work for culture. google will relax its remote plan and coin base will close its offices for good

and fintech company green dot will leave its headquarters in california as it embraces a work from home model. and dom. >> and there are economic implications for met met areas where people shut down their operations a group of researchers published a white paper from the university of chicago and in it they looked at some of the trends in work from home they found out that you could see lower meal, entertainment and personal services expenditures drop by 5% to 10% from the pre-pandemic levels and in major markets, it could drop around 13% for heavy inbound commuters. so when it comes to economic impact, streets notit is not jut that you lost the employees, all the small businesses that support it all the dining establishments, personal services and everything else

>> yeah, it is definitely a change if you go in certain parts of manhattan today, if you go downtown, things seem pretty much normal. but midtown is very, very different because you just don't see the level of office worker traffic in midtown, do you >> it is a ghost town these days sure is. all right. thanks for watching "power lunch. happy mother's day, melissa. >> thank you >> closing bell starts right now. >> welcome, everyone wall street is die digesting a shocker. but we have record highs in the session. let's look at what is driving the action it is all about the jobs report coming in 266,000 for april, well below estimates of 1

million jobs