on monday so apologies. >> it's a pretty good excuse. >> it is, i hope our viewers accept it and they commit to monday, have a lovely weekend. >> happy mother's day. >> happy mother's day sarah. >> thank you. >> and to melissa who takes over right now. >> thanks, guys, i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money" tonight's trader lineup tim seymour, james mcdonald, nadine and steve grasso tonight's on fast carter is sounding the alarm on bonds, he says it's time to move to the sideline and plus tilray blazes higher and tim seymour says this is just catching fire. later, the new kids on the block, ipo's next week, find out which names have the right stuff. we start with vehicle jobs report, total bomb, payroll

ticking higher, what did the market do? it rallied of course many seeing the weak jobs report giving it prolonger, dow high and nasdaq moving higher, the reflags trade driving energy, industrials and materials rallying strong into the close oil et f gains nearly 5% closing at session highs even parts of the tech trade held up semidconductor and software names outperforming the broader nasdaq what do you make of the action on the back of the biggest job miss in more than 20 years tim, i'm not sure if i told you what the outcome of the jobs report was you could have guessed what this market would have done today. >> i know the market likes, you no he, bad news is good news so let's break out new kids, we're going to do a lot of that, it's hanging tough, that the fed is not moving away any time soon,

so big miss. biggest miss in, i don't know, 22 years in terms of a payroll number bottom line it gave ammunition, fuel, we talked energy all week, whether tom leon paul sankey i gave you my energy basket, look, eog up 14% this week slumberage up 16% this week. cvs up 7% this week. energy, copper prices, all-time highs. you were berated me for yelling on twitter about copper prices i'm telling you commodity, lumber, food prices is great for investors maybe not for consumers or multi nationals and input prices we started to talk about that with automakers, with housing and industrial plays like a whirlpool put cost there but market is at all-time high, dollar is weaker, it accepts the

entire complex global emerging markets catching fire this week so it was bad news, good news, weaker labor, hard to believe we'll be weaker next month you got the best of both worlds. >> you used all caps so you're yelling i said use inside voice. copper, aluminum, highest levels since 2018 in copper as we mentioned is a ten-year high if not record-high. lumber prices record-high. and labor shortages under score the potential for inflation for businesses to pay more to get those businesses through the door through bonuses or higher hourly wages, james mcdonald what do you make of it all >> the deeper and stronger problems the higher the confidence the market has that our central bank will continue to assuage complacency

we've seen it a again and again, we had pressure on miss yellen's comments about the need for eventual rate hikes and they bought the dip these dips in the s&p are persisting to get bought as we look across different assets and seeing the swelling of valuations and prices or enthusiastm we have to expect at some point will wane based on shift in sent the. the question is what sentiment will stop the market continuing to rally the with paradox, perhaps good news will generate some abatement in this rally i think what's most important here is to see that the money is finding new homes, it's not concentrated in one sector or index. we did see the pressure coming to the nasdaq and to the russell and pressure coming to various sectors and the money rotated so there's a feverish bullish

sentiment, in cases based on supply as we saw with lumber of covid did have supply shortage so we see in this inflation airy environment there's a lot of caution to be taken. >> was extraordinary, we mentioned underlying commodities energy equities measured by the energy index up more than 8%, nadine, in today's session higher tech names while big cap tech names were eh how do you reconcile the action? >> sure, mel few days ago we were talking about this, it was a tough day, right. we saw huge implied volatility premium so relative to realize volatility these were quite high so that was the time to buy the dip in tech, semis, anything

getting crushed that day, that's what we did. and what you're seeing today is that's just unwinding. i was talking to darius dale this morning and we thought what would get the equity or risk assets to keep melting up, it's two things, one, continued growth in the economy, which, check the box, we got that, but two, call it softness or missing of consensus of inflation related measures and this week you had it in spades, adp, ism services numbers and you saw today with the non-pharm payrolls so you get those too. and doesn't surprise me that it is ramping back up. >> it's goldilox, seeing the economy recovery but not too, too strongly steve grasso, in that kind of environment, is all systems go when it comes to the reflags

trade reopening trade and high is a free pass for high value tech. >> i don't know if it is a free pass for higher value tech names i felt that goldilox term was appropriate when you look at where rates were because that gave you the ability to have large-cap tech that is considered quote/unquote value rally alongside iwm names or the smaller cap names today was a good example you had energy, industrials, material leading those names are restarting the economy you know, melissa, i have it in my mind where i think of the restart of the economy, it looks like a walmart scene on black friday where everyone's waiting to get through those doors when they open up, that's what the economy is going to look like. you can't short a market knowing that you have people breaking down your doors. in new york we're going to 100%

capacity in restaurants on may 17th you're going to see people go gang busters over this economy so yeah, we all think it's going to be natural, normal and healthy to have a pull back. i don't see that pull back happening any time soon and as i always said the market always tries to upset the most amount of people at any one given time, i think that's what the market is doing now the path of least resistance continues higher >> the key to what the panel said is treasuries where yields are now and have been. the chart master has three charts to tell us from here. carter is here to break it all down. >> sure. before we get to them. it's the same chart three times with different iterations. what we do know, of course, in sequencing things can get a little ahead of them selves to one way or another and you get

mean reversion, while that's not 100% reliable it's often quite reliable we know we were at 1 77 basis points on the 10-year yield and it was getting panicky instead of continuing to 1-9 to 2 10 it did the exact opposite. let's look at the charts to try to figure it out there's the past year, ten-year yield, no judgments, no annotations, it's an up trend. look at the second chart, how much of an uptrend, it's the same chart all of us discussed here many times, it's a perfect 45-degree angle. in fact it's a math mathematically-perfect channel and you can see that final chart. look at arrows, like a pinball machine, as though ordained by god, it has listerally bounced off the top and bottom of the channel every single time it's

approached the top and bottom. we know rates went from 50 basis points in the lows of august about a year ago up to 177 in march and at that point bonds were so over sold, in fact, the tlt was so over sold only traded that far below its 150-moving average two other times in its history. instead of continuing higher to 2% it has done the exact opposite today hit a low of 1.43 it was news of course, where it did it stop? to the penny, at the bottom of the channel. our hunch here is that over time rates do continue to work within the channel. but the opportunity to buy bonds tlt for a bounce has come and gone. >> all right, carter, thank you. carter worth operating within the channel even if moving higher tim seems to me, party

on, goldilox. >> yeah. by the way i love carter, no judgment no. judgment from carter he's just laying it out there. he's calm. he's deliberate. and to me, it almost feels like the upward trend in bonds. at times it hasn't been calm yes, i think we are slowly moving high ers a market participant i want to see that i don't want to see i said this at 177 i don't want to see a 60-bit ten year that's not a world economy or taking the long end of the curve away, maybe they should, i think this is a case where there's a lot of arguments. steve talks about the defl deflationary tough and i talk about a case four decade yield is not over and i think 210 is probably a precovid level that makes tens again this is all subject to what the fed is. we were talking been tuesday about janet yellen in some sense

about we were worried about where the interest rates would go, was the fed signaling something, on a day like today we're so far off the mark with labor, by the way, the most important measuring stick what to do with rate policies it gives markets a chance to breathe. again just three days ago we were feeling differently. >> yeah we'll have much more on this with chicago fed president charles evans monday at 8:30 a.m. on "squawk box. coming up, we'll break down the 60% rally coming up. first, new kids on the block, find out which names are worth betting on we'll walk you through them step-by-step when "fast money" returns. yees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this... your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown,

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news alert on the solar wind pack. >> yeah, melissa, significant new data from solar winds about the massive hack that have been attributed to the russians, they have a new number, remember 18,000 was out there early on the solar wind tech they're

saying that number might be misleading, here's the statement, they're saying at the earliest stages of the investors we reported 18,000 customers could have been vulnerable to sun burst based on the total number of customer downloads from our orion platform products unfortunately we've seen the number used mistakenly in media reports and saying now the actual number is fewer than 100. so a significant change between 18,000 and 100 but they're saying they now have more investigative resources around this and a better look exactly how bad the hacking was. they say now 100 customers, fewer than 100 customer actually hacked opposed to 18,000 this gives a new permanent for the damage what it doesn't tell you necessarily is exactly how many of these hacks customers allowed that hack to go up the food

chain to other companies because it isgoing from one to the nex company so we still don't know the total damage but the initial input is much smaller than a lot of people feared early on according to the latest statement from solar wind. >> you answered my follow up-. thank you. let's get you set up for next week check out some new kids on the block ready to report earnings next week. time to play a game of. >> trade it or fade it. >> that's right, trade it or fade it, the new kids on the block edition, which of these names has the right stuff. kick it off with -- tim, trade it or fade it >> i got to ask was it donnie wahlberg i hada as maybe a joe mcintyre fan, who was it with the new kids that you had the poster on the wall. >> i know not of what you speak, tim, no idea no clue. nothing. >> forget it road blocks.

let me play the game i'm gonna trade it again in terms of a stock that gives exposure, mega trends out there in terms of gaming, obviously social media, in terms of demographic, obviously, 17 and below demo of 2.5 hours a day for their audience is something that's pretty va valuable the meta verse all of the things we talk about, whether i understand them or not, i like this name. i think of a high-multiple tech dynamic out there that's been under pressure, to me there's scarcity value in here and again some of the tailwinds sector wise this is a hot space and this is best of breed company. >> grasso trade it or fade it? >> this is in the bulls eye for things being sold as tim alluded to with the high multiple target on the back. i'm a fader of roblox. i have to believe with kids back at school, less eyeballs on the

screen and less hours, the tailwind for the stock if anything is good will be that it is bouncing along the 64 level technically. maybe use that as a shot as your out but i'm a fader. >> next up we hear from palantir ceo so james mcdonald trading it or fading it >> i'm going to fade palantir, unfortunately. i'm a patriotic guy, i love the businesses that keep us safe, the boeings, the fords, palantir cannot hold $20. we saw this massive break out of the $20 level in this market where in this case a new security what i like to call insider profit opportunities happen, in this market where we got so much energy into the trend we really have to look to the chart to see what's coming the $20 level didn't hold here important business, important to our country and important national security. important solving problems i love the business. the chart indicates there's a

break down potentially as i think we're late-phase into the rally we have to be because it's the longest rally in history i think there's more. >> it could be great business but not a good stock nadine, you're on the other side of james' trade. >> you're right. i would trade it i think palantir has advanced offerings outside government, that they're solving requirements in supply chain and quality control. they're working with ibm when you think about it from the government standpoint they talked about redoing the navy contracts. so even though a lot of the comp is in stock options that means people are insentivized to get the price up so we're seeing a trading range of 3 to 1 so i would trade. >> next up, door dash is out on thursday, tim, trade it or fade it >> i'm gonna fade this one it's just a case where i do think this has been the perfect case of a covid tailwind and

case where valuation to me is really difficult to understand in a low-margin business on a price to sale revenue metrics, and i just, i hate the valuation i think we've had a very good run. who just mentioned it, steve mentioned people are rushing back to restaurants, doesn't mean they're still not doing take out and delivery. we paid a lot to have this stock in the last couple months and i think you fade it. >> this is interesting grasso has a fade, james as a fade and nadine a fade but a trade first, explain what you mean? >> 10 you're looking at 14 >> so you're looking at 14.5% interest, piques my interest, no pun intended, for going long on a short-term perspective our trade is 2 to 1 upside we saw great numbers from a european comp called delivery hero so i think you might be able to make money in the short-term but i agree with tim in terms of the intermediate term there's a lot of pressures

on this business comping the comps from last year and they're in the cross hairs having the gig workers turn into employees. so on an intermediate bases i agree but i think there's a short-term trade. >> air bm b reports next . >> air bmb steve grasso, trade or fade it. >> air bnb will change the way people vacation. this is a trade for me even if technicals are concerning. this was something great pre-pandemic, it's going to be better post-pandemic, i think you have to stay with this one the way we change mentally is not going away when we come out of this. >> you don't think people will want to go to a hotel where someone changes your sheets and towels instead of cooking in a kitchen, going back to that normal seems attractive to me. by a show of hands, who is trading air bnb with steve

grasso raise your hand if you're trading it all of you are tim you were nodding your heads when i talk about the sheets and towels. >> there's a different to my personal preference to having fresh towels, no question i'd rather stay in a hotel by the way, i have plenty of confidence in hilton and marriott hotels. from a stock perspective the air bnb valuation was ridiculous on release and will continue to take market share. i like the stock story for the long term. i hate the valuation here. i'd definitely stay in a hotel first. >> all right still ahead, double upgrade, one trader saying this ne amis just catching fire. back in two.

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welcome back mark your calendar for this tuesday's event, register right now, cnbcevents.com/healthy returns. the stock getting double uptake, analysts calling the combination tilray -- could rise 60% from here, tim, what do you make of tilray here? >> the merger is the key here. this is not one i'd be excited about on my own but with the best grower in canada ed a european business that puts both their strengths and

relationships, that of tilray and artist i think there's a strong story for a global story. >> time for the final trade. steve grasso. >> seonos. >> nadine. >> cnez. >> james mcdonald. >> ev all the way, general motors. >> tim seymour >> rio tinto, resources running crazy. >> that does it for us at fast don't go anywhere jam-packed "options action" is up rht after this break this is the gap, that opened up when everything shut down. ♪ but entrepreneurs never stopped. ♪ and found solutions that kept them going. ♪ at u.s. bank, we can help you adapt and evolve your business, no matter what you're facing. because when you close the gap, a world of possibility opens. ♪ u.s. bank.

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happy friday welcome to "options action." on deck tonight, thinking of a summer vacation? we got a two for one deal will have swimming in profit. and oil light went on not in your car but in your portfolio and with us carter, mike khouw and tony zhang let's get to it. the chart master carter weather is making reservations for not just one but two plays, carter, explain. >> well, not man