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tv   The Exchange  CNBC  May 11, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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go steph >> stanley black and decker the growing 45% last quarter i think it ontinues. >> we have to remember our place. i like general motors. i would use this to buy the stock. >> cleveland cliffs. >> sun run >> surprise jim didn't pick energizer for new batteries. here is what's ahead on the show the technology collapse.
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electric vehicles. we break down one area of the market will it continue in how you play it how far the mighty have fallen we begin with the market sell off as the stock slump continues. it's been changing narrative the dow is still down about 60 po600 points take a look at this. as the market sell off has maybe solidified a bit more throughout the course of the day, it's nasdaq that's become the out performer. at the lowest of the day that we saw after the opening bell, we were roughly down about 294 points that translates to about 2.25% of the lows of the day we have been sadly trying to turn and climb out of the that
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hole we're off about two-thirds of 1% if you take a lookt at a sampling these particular names have seen some interesting moves around. snow flake, it's seen a huge fall off since its post-ipo highs. it's reversed course and up about 3% zoom video is up about 3%. more momentum driven trades, more newer technology. apple and tesla are continuing to underperform. i would note that apple has touched today and gone down to its 200-day average price. it's found some support there as well apple, tesla, key stocks to watch. they have a lot more weighting than zoom or snow flake in the overall trade. as we look at the big reversal, co what do the charts tell us may lie ahead.
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is this a sign the selling is done or is it a head fake. can you take us through the charts anything you saw that indicated we could be seeing a broader base technology sell off >> i mean i think we're in the midst of it right now. the reason i think the nasdaq 100 is out performing because it's short term oversold where the s&p 500 and other benchmarks are not. we're expecting a few days of stabilization on the back of that short term reading but some damage has already been done the nasdaq 100 at low today was down about 7% from its recent high that reflects week short term momentum and also week intermediate momentum within the context of the long term up trends we're looking at this as corrective not the start of a big bearish reversal the 50-day moving average with a
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little support gauge has been taken out by the nasdaq 100 and that puts the next support around the 200-day moving average which is about 6% pe low. that does create some potential risk and what we're noticing with this growth under performance is some of the retest of support based on the march lows and the 200-day moving averages are what we call unsuccessful >> if there are those short term break downs, can you take us through specific parts of the market you're keying in on as possibly having even more downside ahead or maybe trying to stabilize at this point poised for perhaps a near to medium term bounce >> right the near term, i think the bounce last a few days and that might be something folks want to use as a selling opportunity, particularly in those stocks that have broken short term
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support. ever bridge is testing support on that. there seems to be risk of a break down given relative growth you can see in the nasdaq 100 it's taken out a sport term support level versus the s&p 500 index. beyond the short term stabilization, that we can expect additional under performance by the technology sector >> are there certain parts within this overall market and narrative that have acted more like tea leaves in your mind maybe leading indicator. i know in the past some traders have talked about the
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semiconstructer industry other parts focus on megacap technology some say momentum. if your mind, in your career have you keyed in on certain parts of that market overall that you think are the ones who might tell us a bit about the overall narrative. >> we sometimes get leading indication from relative strength work. meaning the loss was somewhat telling. in this environment, this is a little unusual but ten year treasury yields have been trading off for some time. they lost intermediate momentum well ahead of what we're seeing in the equity market and up until early march or so they maintained a positive correlation. perhaps they were giving us a cue that equity market was in store of consolidation for its own. we're entering into seasonally challenged period. that's how i like to put it from may to october it was avenue a very strong april to see some selling start
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to kick in >> sell in may and go away is that the strategy this time around >> i think things might get more difficult but we have seen some real bifurcations. you really saw that yesterday with out performance from precious metals, health care, pharma ways. there are ways to take advantage of a more difficult take for the indices. >> thank you very much have a nice day. >> you too stocks are cutting their losses after suffering their worst day in more than two months at one point the nasdaq fell to its lowest level since march 30th hedge fund manager discuss the
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recent market moves earlier today this morning on squawk box. >> i think in terms of the recovery, it's had more to do with the rotation than it has with the stock market itself as you know, joe, we started very subtle rotation from august till october which has accelerated now out of the covid beneficiaries into what i would call reflation beneficiaribenef. >> will this rotation hold does this market sell off have any merits to buying >> i think what we're dealing with, i think i agree with the
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rotational concept idea. i think it's been going on throughout this bull market is accelerating more towards economically sensitive areas what we're entering into is what i call revalue time. every bull market going back to the 1980s, the market when it first takes off is stock prices goes straight north and earnings keep going straight south. a lot of times for the first year of the bull that's exactly what happened here the problem with that is, ultimately as prices go north while earnings go south, the valuation metrics become very extreme and it sets up for the need to revalue the stock market i think that's what we're entering into right now. the reval is a good thing for the long jlongevity of the bull. set up a much better valuation going forward.
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we had a reval in '83, '84, 2004, '05 and 2009, '10. it starts when earnings start to improve and bond yields start to move higher. we're right in that same mode now. in the previous ones in the 1980s bull, the reval resulted in a 35% drop while it went on even though the market was flat for that year when it got 35% cheaper relative to earnings in '09-'10, it went from 29 to 16 we were 20 times over earnings when this bull market, just not that long ago, i think as we go into next year, we might have a
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trailing multiple that's like 18 and a half times earnings and looking much more attractively priced i think we will continue to have volatility we could have a correction yet this year but i think it's a buy yet going into next year >> it's a buy. how much do interest rates matter if this is a revaluation, those concerns are driven by higher interest rates if the interest rates practice jek toir is holding where it is right now, does the revaluation need to happen >> i think we will globally it might be the strongest growth year recorded i think it will continue to escalate inflation fears and i still think bond yields will end up above 2% before the year is out. there will be continued pressure
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on that keeping stock prices, i think in a trading range the good news is, earnings are going to be spectacular. i believe we're going to have like $215 s&p earnings by the end of this year first quarter, the annualized run rate on those first quarter earnings are close to $200 annualized share rate. if we're already at $200 run rate, maybe 215 is not high enough if we end the year at 4,000 on a $215 earnings, we're going to have a very attractively priced market going into next year even if rates are 2.5%, that's still some of the lowest rates in u.s. history with a below average p/e multiple and another year of good growth. >> if there's constructiveness to be had in the market right now, there's certain places that are better values than others. what exactly are those particular sectors given that
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interest rate profile and the profile for earnings growth going forward? >> you know, i just look back at this dom at the four previous reval preerds that had interest rates and inflation pressures embedded in them you think you might want to move to defensive stocks but where you want to ploouf is to tie yourself to the cyclicality of the economy. i think that's where you want to stay weighted in the rest of this year. small caps have been revalued very nicely. they night continue to do that in the rest of the year as well. there could be a trade as we get closer to year end we know the growth rate will slow down flexion year it might be a time to trade out of cyclicals and quite frankly i think it might be time to go back into technology again for
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2022 >> all right resurgence of technology possibly jim, thank you so much great to get your thoughts coming up, it's the rotation play that's been under the radar but still out performing we'll tell you what it is, where it is and the names poised the make a run from here the analyst behind that move joins us ahead to make his case. machin i really hope that this vaccine can get me one step closer to him. to a huge wedding. to give high fives to our patients. to hug my students. with every vaccine, cvs is working to bring you one step closer to a better tomorrow.
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call... to receive fifty percent off installation. and take advantage of our special offer of no payments for eighteen months. . welcome back here is one bright spot in today's market sell off. shares of u.s. steel are up about 3% today on the heels of morgan stanley's upgrade to buy on stronger demand it's not just steel prices nearing record highs the cost of materials across the board are rising the sector is up more than 20% so far this year could materials be that next hot sector to jump in and buy? a lot of materials let's talk through why the materials sector is not getting as much attention for its out performance.
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energy gets the spotlight these days >> thank you for having me people have been away from the space for over a decade. there's a lot of people in the market that are not familiar with the space they are not familiar with the stories. it might take some time. they are doing the work. they are feeling pain of not having exposure to names but they are really interesting and looking into it. >> i've seen back a decade or so it doesn't feel as though it's getting as much attention these days is there a commodity super cycle in play possibly in the coming years? >> possibly. it's different than what we saw in 2000.
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the world needs to be greening and that requires materials and copper copper, nickel, aluminum, silver and steel >> the last time we talked about oil. this time it's geared toward things like steel prices, iron ore prices, copper prices. those types of materials is there way that investors can still benefit? is there still upside left to go and where is the most compelling out performance forecast to be in. >> i do think that investors can still benefit from what the stock space has to offer when you look at the last decade or so, the material space, steel
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in particular, s&p 500 steel sector rel toif to the broader s&p 500 has under performed for more than a decade now as steel price res main higher and we now see prices which are of the benchmark, commodity grade for steel is staying above 1,000 dollars throughout the fourth quarter as people catch off to this idea and bake that into their numbers, we realize there's much more side toest mats and cash flow than the companies can generate the shares will continue to run in our opinion we like steel. we think this is a sector for the story in the space they acquire and electric car in 2019 and they completed acquisition 100% late last year and they are ramping up these new venture. it's going to benefit the power
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in a very good way it's a transformational story that will benefit. help lever the balance sheet and make it stronger than we thought. >> there's been a prevailing thought of the prospect of prl trls of dollars worth of infrastructure spending here in the united states at some point down the line could be tail wind for some of these raw materials type kpcompanyies as well. how do you factor in the odds around a massive under taking around here in the united states >> done a very bright spot for steel companies.
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we need to see what will be supported. that will determine spervegly the steel products and we're better able to define what companies will benefit the most. broadly speaking, steel is steel and higher capacity for steel companies in the united states has difficulty being associated with higher prices and better profitability for names. >> thank carlos de alba, thank you very much. we appreciate it >> thank you coming up, this stock is total garbage and that's precisely why you may want to own it as the reopening gains steam. we'll explain be garbage chart take a look at some of the online sports gambling stocks. several bucking the downward trend. you can see there scientific games of 7%. churchill downs up 2.5%. we're back in two minutes.
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index, the vix is crossing above the 21 level take a look at airline stocks. firmly in the red. the biggest names down around 3% or so. a few stocks are bucking the trend. palantir the company reporting 49% revenue growth and said on its earnings call that adding bitcoin to its balance sheet is quote, unquote, definitely on the table. stock is trying to break its ten-day losing streak. it's still down 50% or so from its high we saw back in january. another outperformer today, c callaway golf says demand has opinion unprecedented for its products as the pandemic
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recedes. roblox up double digits after reporting a 161% increase in bookings since going public back in march the shares up about 15% right now. federal approval today for a major project that would put dozens of wind turbines in the ocean. the biden administration calls it a critical part for of renewable industry queen elizabeth opened the new session of the uk parliament in her first public appearance since the death of her husband, prince phillip and her speech scripted by prime minister boris johnson government she laid out an ecoplan to boos the economy.
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trainer says the horse was treated with an antifungal substance that may have found the drug in the horse's plood. you're now up to date. back to you. thank you very much. cheap china stocks, social immedimedi snaps and time to pick your way through the garbage name, literally. that's all coming up a reminder that may a asian american and pacific islander heritage month we're highlight our own melissa lee. >> when i was 11, i wrote a letter to the evening news anchor on the local station. i told her i wanted to be a newscaster when i grow up. i will never forget how nice an encouraging she was. it's a reminder to pay it forward and help inspire the
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next generation.
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let's catch you up on few stories that should be on your radar today. it's time for rapid fire here to break down the headlines are tim seymour. also a cnbc fast money trader and bob is joining us and seema modi the social media stocks presenting a mixed picture in trading today. facebook, twitter, snap, pinterest all pairing their earlier losses the hardest hit of the group, facebook is facing a very real threat from tik tok. it's said to take over instagram in gen z users by the end of this year and not even by a slim margin tik tok will surpass snap chat in total users by the year 2023. how real is this threat. tik tok is not even a company we can invest in. >> it's very real.
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they're somewhere around 40% in terms of the gen z exposure. you heard q1 numbers they will continue to grow q1, i think 65, 66%, that's tough to duplicate the guidance on the second quarter was good maybe not enough next three or four years, i think they still grow mid-50s. i think that's extraordinary i really like snap chat despite tik tok's threat, as we call it. >> is there anything that leaves to believe this social kbmedia s
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due for disruption from likes of a tik tok? >> the pricing is coming down. the market is telling that this discussion is happening shows you speed of social media displacement instagram used to be hot now it's not so hot amongst gen z. you get other things out there snapchat is still hot but it's losing interest and now tik tok is the hot thing amongst gen z it's accelerating. what's the new tik tok is really the question it's sort of like the opposite of what andy warhol said many the future nobody will be famous for 15 minutes >> seema, you are quite famous and you're a social media use ir what's your social media platform of choice and why >> for now it probably would be instagram. looking through these number, pretty commendable despite
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rising competition, tik tok is able to maintain its leadership position. there's been delay in ipo. >> let's stay along the lines o tech let's talk about social capital. virgin galactic tanking more than 70% clover health plummeting about 50 percentage points from their respective highs
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social capital fine. the vehicle that will take fintech public will also as well as other spacs are down 30% or more over the past tlhree month. i would to call your attention to something flashing on our screens here the nasdaq, believer it or not, is in positive territory right now. it just happened in the last couple of seconds. it was down almost 2.25% at the lows that we hit within moinutes we were down massively let's talk a bit about what's happening with the social media
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spac type companies. this is a sentiment gauge. bob, we'll start with you on this these were the hottest things since slice bread just six months ago >> these are speculative tech stocks a lot of clean energy. it trades on vague hopes and the future someday, somebody will make a bunch of money on this. they are all down about 30%. all of the stuff is the baseline that's what's happening today trying to figure out a bottom. that's why we're starting to rally. some people are saying 50% down. that's enough. the problem happened in february when rates went up, concerns about inflation went up and these stocks become much less attractive when rates go up and inflation goes up. nobody wants to trade on vague hopes or future profits. there's other concerns when inflation hits the fan and that's basically been the problem ever since with these stocks.
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it's been a early believer of this spac trade, open door social capital other names he's backed you wonder whether this is a moment in time or investors are reckoning whether this is a great investment for the long term or one time blip. he took grab public through the 40 million dollar deal on april 12th that's spac is down double digits >> tim, does the spac cooling off provide a bit of comfort that maybe we could ratchet things up later on this year >> things are very frothy and spac space has been discussed is the cult of personality space. investors are blindly buying
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without looking under the hood they are buying a group of sponsors and that's good and bad. i think you will continue to see spacs as a vehicle especially in a world where money is free. this isn't about pump in the market i think a private equity type investment in very important this pause is very good for the spac themselves f the asset prices have cooled off a lot. i think that's good for all investors. i don't think you have to chase them at all ever and know what you own. >> yeah, electric vehicle ones, we didn't talk about those but those have cooled off considerably here as well. we'll turn to china where analysts at goldman sachs have identified cheap chinese
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investors they should buy. they get buy rating from goldman analyst which the firm sees as having attractive valuation as well as solid growth potential is there anything attractive about the pull back that says we should go in there and buy >> it's attractive because as an em investors, i used to invest in top end of the balance sheet and that index were banks and commodity companies. it's truly now repositioned to have some of the biggest tech companies in the world at the top of the balance sheet story around baba is really one
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where investors should be excited that they got through this market regulators fine. this is a very cheap company at a time investors are speculating about what they should pay the world's biggest incubator under a lot of pressure from big brother. the macro dynamic with the regulators in china. i think that's over done i totally agree with this call i think investors need to be into the longer haul i think volatility is inherent >> that's great point that tim brings up. it's big tech getting the same regulatory scrutiny as big tech from the u.s. government how much is that landscape going to play sinto value indations s they be buy.
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>> the thesis was looking at the chinese growth story the dprogrowing middle class now with this increased regulatory pressure, the push back they are receiving from president xi and his administration has created a number of head winds for these stocks how much will that trend play out? >> it matter a lot it's opinion some moves out of the u.s. market. i agree with tim i think this was a good call it's cheap look what's happening in stocks. the big cap megacap china stocks have had the stuffing kicked out of them. much more than u.s. megacap.
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i think i'm just going to rev the valuation on a call. >> america versus big tech china there. both stocks are up nearly 20% over the past year seema, you have been tracking the garbage trade for us >> lucky me. >> what is the upside left for companies like waste management and waste connections? >> let's do a little trash talking. i'm not talk about jay-lo and
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ben affleck. a few things helping you have more employees returning to work. residents coming back to thety that's increasing the volume of waste and the frequency of pickups. >> all right yes. bob, these are names we don't often talk about but is there an opportunity based upon, are we just reluhunting around for thex reopening trade? >> we are. one point and seema is right commercial garbage pick up has much higher margins than residential pick up. that really bodes well for them. that's what's going to start picking up that's got a nice tail wind behind it. the problem i have is every one knows that who knows something about waste management this is a very expensive stock
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we're at new highs look at that stock in the last month. we're probably close to 30 times forward earnings. >> that was your addition of ripperi -- rapid fire oppenheimer is bullish on the stock and think there's a 48% rally ahead. the analyst making that call will join us next. leets take a look at the nasdaq now positive after starting the day down over 2. -- just around 2.25%. some of the leaders now, splunk, zoom, match, docusign, paypal. they are up 2 to 5%.
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we're back after this. plap ♪ ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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. welcome back dogecoin seeing the biggest gain but nowhere near its highs we saw pre-elon musk and saturday night live oppenheimer is bullish on coin base it's initiating coverage with a 334 dollar price target. joining me with more o the senior analyst at oppenheimer responsible for coverage of coinbase maybe the best opening is that's a lot of upside. why? >> first of all, thank you for having me, dom there's a lot of upside because we see this misconception in the market that the higher the volatility of bitcoin, that should benefit the trading
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volume of coinbase what that means is the revenue should go up, earnings should go up and we see substantial earnings upside from here. stock pull back quite a bit from along $380 at the dreirect listn price to trading around $300 >> giti get the market volatili. markets go volatile because you can make spread, any kind of profits there. the coin base story is interesting. they continually say the institutional investment will benefit them it's a much bigger market. the commissions or spreads that you make from institutional trade rudy giuliani a lot small r than if i were to go on coin base and trade bit coin or anything else. what about that margin compression story, the more institutions get in, the thinner the margins. >> i hear in you i hear you about it the
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compression but i believe these conversation is a little bit over blown we don't know the future but we look at the asset classes in exchanges. it was a fee of revenue capture compression in these traditional asset classes like energy contract, acquisition contract, but we also saw with the massive option, the trading volume is more than offset the fee compression or revenue captured compression. so what that means is net-net revenue will continue to go up that's why i think it's too early to conclude that it could impact the coinbase model. if we look at the exchange, i would also argue that the trading volume what even more than offset the compression.
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>> owen lau there with the call there. can you tell me what you think will be the big driver is it still bitcoin or more ethereum >> that would be another way the next wake wee ethereum in my view and the next catalyst could be the etf that could be the next best thing. >> the ethereum the next bething, owen lau with an outperform rating on coinbase. have a good day. >> thank you. we'll get the latest on the colonial pipeline and how much pain would be tathe pump. "the exchange" will be right back
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makes it easy to switch and save hundreds. welcome back the fallout from the colonial pipeline slow down continues pipa, i will admit, i have not filled up yet.
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my plan is tomorrow. >> you're one of foot people not filling up right now consumers are now starting to feel it at the pump in terms of price and availability pipeline, of course, a key part of the country's infrastructure, about 45% of the east coast fuel through a network that spans more than 5,000 miles. gas prices were already on the rise ahead of this, and aaa sees it rising even more in the wake of the pipeline shutdown just a few pennies away from that $3 mark, and around the highest level since to 14. traders say that tanks were well supplied heading into the shutdown now consumers are unsurprisingly worried, so they're heading to the pump, creating shortages,
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with some san diego completely out of fuel. more than 7% of stations in virginia are totally wiped out, dom. so consumers hitting the pump. >> it feel like the early days of the pandemic when you couldn't find paper towels or toilet paper most of the outages are happening in the south to mid-atlantic part of that path here in the northeast it's a bit different right now. can we expect to see this resolve sometime soon? what is the time frame what exactly needs to be done to get us where we need to be >> well, time frame is completely key here. we don't have that much information around the time frame. the last time we heard from colon want pipeline was last night, when they said they expect their systems to be back up and running by the end of the week
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that's only on a limited base. we can continue to see shortages, if they continue to hit is the pump, but it's really important to know this is heavily localized and will be concentrated in areas along the eastern seaboard there are ways around it we can waive the jones act georgia has repealed the state tax right now on gas, so there's certainly actions that the government can take. >> pippa thank you. coming up, much more on the markets including the recent collapses on ev stocks "power lunch" is back after this break. in other words, you want a hybrid. so do telcos. that's why they're going hybrid with ibm. a hybrid cloud approach with watson ai helps them roll out new innovations anywhere without losing speed.
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call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-376-4376. that's 1-800-376-4376 welcome to "power lunch. i'm melissa lee, along with courtney reagan today. a midday comeback has made the numbers seem less bad. the nasdaq briefly turning positive cathie wood is selling 30% of her apple stock. will she also come to her record decision and are ev stocks running out of juice?

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