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tv   The Exchange  CNBC  May 12, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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>> steve >> porsche >> let's show you the markets as we go out. dow is still down by better than 440 points we're trying to get off the lows of the day the s&p is down about 65 and the nasdaq is where the selling has been the heaviest down 2%. that does it for us. "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott i'm jon fortt. from big tech to semis to social stocks we're going to sgdig into that wreckage the shout down starting to caus pain at the pump prices in some areas hitting the highest since 2014 as the country couldn'ts to reopen and consumers get together, could this be the summer of love for dating
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stocks we begin with today's market and another tech sell off with number numbers? >> no love for the polls in the trading realm. we're right across the board and up about 450 points for the dow industrials. at the lows in yesterday's trading the nasdaq was down 2.25%. we'll see if there's any kind of an inkling by traders to buy this particular dip. not seeing it so far today one of the big drivers, the highest level for interest rates months now if you look at the ten-year note yield, 1.69% the last trade there. we had a bit of a mini break out over the range we have seen the interest rate playing into that market narrative add well
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when interest rates rise, valuations come into question. the assumptions change for some of those models. that treasury implication possibly part of the theme overall for why we're seeing weakness in technology or more richly valued parts of the market apple the biggest company off about 2% tesla is down about 2% right now and zoom video and docusign both growth names that have become part of the that momentum trade narrative since the pandemic lows each is off around 4% as well. back over to you >> thank you is a decline in earnings quality especially when it comes to tech partly to blame for the sell off. joining me now is bob. bob, always hard to know what to make of moves like this when the
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market has been running so hot for so long. how concerned should we be given the earnings season we have just been through >> thank you, jon. i appreciate it. we were do for a correction and i think folks have been hieber focused on inflation even though the fed kind of telegraphed this last year and august powell speech and into september policy decision where they were focused on maximizing employment with regards to earnings at a blow out and particularly on the big megacap tech names we manage a suite of free cash flow investment strategies focusing on free cash flow profitability and quality of
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earnings for the big megacap tech stocks they blew their numbers out earnings were fantastic. cash flow growth was decent. a minor red flag or a red flag for us was a build and accruals for companies like facebook, amazon and tesla and for us that just draws into question the sustainability >> how much do you think the whole market can rely on those strong big tech earnings we came into 2021. some people concerned about the amount of the s&p, for example, that's made up of exactly those names and meantime we had some of these other more speculative and hopeful names run up strong the beginning of the year. now they have fallen off maybe their earnings numbers not quite as strong and whole sm as the big tech ones. >> i think so. they have dominated from earnings for some time add well as the percentage of the market
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cap. if you go back to game stop and a lot of the tech and speculative names, henning activity has been nonexistent. some hedge fund darlings might have been having to sell some of these names. i think it's a confluence of reasons for the selling today and the last several days inflation, inflation expectations even though nominal rates are just pushing back up to where we were several weeks ago at 170 >> how healthy is this market then, do you think i mean not just the market itself but the psychology around it you mentioned maybe the damage to shorts after what happened with gamestop. in a well functioning market you can argue there should be a
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healthy amount of short interest >> i agree i think short interest is future demand >> got to get you to hold on we have some breaking news we got to pivot to the band market ten year bonds up for auction. rick is tracking that action at the cme. what's the demand look like? >> the demand was stellar. do remember we had a really decent size sell off the last 36 hours pushing yields higher. buyers have a bit of an incentive and that was used today. a minus for 41 billion ten year notes, the second part of a package of 126 billion of threes, tens and 30s the yield at the dutch auction, 1.684. the win issue market was trading on the high yield low price at the time that 1.695.
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a whole basis point below the price. lower yield, higher price. that's part of the reason for the a minus but everything you look at is good. 2.45 to cover the best since january this year. 63.4 in directs. we like indrirects the definitive number, 19.5 on dealers. dealers usually take the leftovers. the smaller the leftovers, the more they like the meal. 19.5 is the lowest amount taken since the spring of 2017 a stellar action >> what do you make of it? >> listen, typically, lower
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yields, strong option would be support for the big tech names as they are viewed as long duration assets. it should help that being said, monday sell off and some of the selling we have seen have not really taken place with nominal yields really that strong we have had -- there's been a lot much ado about rates and inflation and certainly that's played out in break evens. listen, i think this should be calming. all else being equal we had a very high put call yesterday that being said, it was months of lack of hedging, months of short interest being taken out of this market months of one sided sentiment that stocks and only go up you ask earlier did i think this was healthy? i think it's healthy that the broader market has sold off.
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that kind of new high burst is exhausting >> maybe we want to feel a little trim and healthy heading into summer. thank you. >> thank you the usual work from home suspects also in the red as this tech sell off continues. zoom, docusign, dell all lower today. zoom and docusign are down double digits. bank of americasecurity sees robust future for these and other digital stocks the firm lhighlighting names tha will benefit.
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we have that trend running into the ai trend and there's certain jobs people are being difficulty working from home that are at risk in the ai future, right >> yes it's a pleasure to be here, jon. yes, we're heading into world that's job market is going to be disrupted. it started before covid. covid have accelerated the trend and i think now because of the acceleration of the technology that it's every dom nants, things will adjust and happen faster and faster. robotic, technology will be a big part of the job market we do not plbelieve this will ba bad thing. we believe like we seen with any other technological revolution this will be creative to the job
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market >> this is not an all or nothing thing. there's differences in how this will play out. take the real estate market for example. there's been some assumptions that commercial real estate could get blown up by this because people are not going back to the office not entirely true. in what cases do you think they will >> it's not going to be a balance thing. we believe the work from home is here to stay in some areas we're going to see more, less amount of office space, some kind of real estate in the work ma market you don't need to pay the very expensive rates in key cities. we need to remember that has a positive effect on other sides
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rez dresidential or industrial real estate or data centers and commercial real estate around warehouses and so on people will work even more and more jobs will be created but they're going to change. >> if you are right then i look at stocks like zoom, door dash and twilio which have really gotten a hit well off of their 52-week highs. you seem to be saying these are the kind of companies that could benefit. >> we have a five year view. we believe those are the same. those companies will gain.
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we will see more and more demand demand with the covid crisis was over shooting. at one point 85% of the world gdp was working from home or completely offline it was an over shooting but the covid crisis have accelerated. trends are already there zoom will not go away. all thoese remote access will no go away. it could be plans. >> how does health care play into this. telehealth was a big theme during the pandemic.
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it will replace the blue and the bh white collars. we will need more and more of that machinery can still not replace fully. the last market which will enjoy from the automation level going forward. i don't necessarily need to go to the doctor all the time i have a lot of technology around me that can spot my signals all time, 24/7 that's going to be a big boost to the health care market and not a decline.
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>> software has a long way to go in the empathy department. when ever my computer dupts boot, it fails to apologize. thank you. >> thank you very much coming up, disney shares might have been quiet as a mouse so far this year but my next guest says that's about to change he'll make the case, next. from pay at the pump to problems at the ports. a closer look at america's supply issues. exchange is back in two.
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welcome back disney is said to report earnings tomorrow after the bell company having a stellar few months shares are flat for the year morgan stanley thinks this could be a good sign saying disney is quote quiet as a mouse for now. it has a bullish trifecta in its future joining us is head of u.s. media v research at morgan stanley i guess the bear side would be the stock ran in anticipation of the opening that we're about to see now. stuff like the avengers and robert downey junior that stuff is done. yeah the tv stuff is done but we
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don't know what's next for lot of the franchises. why is that wrong? >> i think if you look across media the great stocks of the second half of last year, a lot of it reopening and the streaming winners look at netflix as an example. they are under performed or in case of disney haven't done a whole lot. that's not a huge surprise given the rotation of the market we have seen. no stock benefits from a content cycle like disney has. we are shifting now from an earnings model from selling tickets and generating revenues over finite period of time to building a streaming assess wrapped around all this ip what i see coming on the content
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side is pretty powerful and a real catalyst for the stock. >> to what degree disney needs to prove anything to create the right kind of fly will around its brands going forward in it's a great question i guess i make two points. on the content side, a lot of the key people who run their studio businesses are still there. i think the content creative side is in great hands
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i will make a strong case that the monday night football renewal that disney announced with the nfl was a significant success point for the management team and lowering the expenses rel tative to what we thought ad creating an opportunity to put some of that content on espn plus so far we're pretty happy with what we're seeing. >> over the next year or two, what do you expect the stock to really move on is it going to be this disney plus versus netflix, direct to consumer narrative even wrapping sport sboos ts into that or is g go back to fundamentals. how the parks are run. the profitability there and some of the ways they are able to extend the relationship beyond digital into the revenue streams.
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>> i think you said it well. this is a company that should grow earnings from not a whole lot this year to eight to ten dollars by 2024. it's a massive earnings and that's coming from direct to consumer ramping from parks reopening and now we have a little less pressure on the sports cost side the big bold case which is still probably a couple of years away is how does disney as a service emerge with all these direct to consumer relationships if they hit their targets, you're talking about 300 million plus direct relationships with an internet connection, real engagement and how does that make disney the company more successful, more profitable than what is the collection of the businesses we have been tracking all these years. >> you do point out some risks to the bullish case and some of that involving pressures, economic covid pressures in latin america and india. what's the next big test that
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your bull case sort of has to pass or disney has to pass in order for your bull case to show it's winning up. >> i think on the indian, latin american points part of why the stock has been quiet as a mouse is we saw that latin america and india are in a tough spot and these are markets that are expected to be big growth drivers for streaming. if anything the situation in those markets has gotten worse over the last month or so. i think the big test is always content with this company. they have put the management structure. they can show that marvel and stars and disney live action and the princess continue to resonate with consumers and drive consumer spending. that's the key
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we'll get some of those tests very soon. we got kruella coming up followed by black window, we think, later this summer and onto a pretty massive slate starting in september through the end of 22. >> i hear you on marvel and star wars my boys love what they are doing with the bad batch and falcon and winter soldier will that translate to the big screen we'll see. thanks >> thank you coming up, from getting in shape to shape wear. we look at the companies that might have a leg up in reopening including this stock up nearly 40% in week. that name's ahead. cloud and cyber security stocks lower today th good time the buy or should you stay clear inthcno watch us live on the g usg e bc app usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting.
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now the sun conference is under way bringing together hedge fund heavy hitters. glen view capital larry robins speaking now let's bring in leslie picker with the headlines >> larry is a frequent speaker
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he's a offering a slew of picks for those who are in attendance and we're going to bring you some of them here. his first pick he had was dxc technology he plobelieves that's triple for the long term. it's trading at about $34 per share. he didn't define what the long term is but he does believe it has the ability to get there myriad genetics is another pick of his brookdale senior living. he talked about a variety of spacs. he said interestingly he knows recently spacs have become a four letter word but he doesn't think all of them should be thrown in trash and they are tremendous gems out there. he cite d a few of those
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now, he did take a minute to provide some kind of more macro comments on the state of the consumer i want to give you a listen to some of those comments >> the consumer is flush thanks to government stimulus as well as the inabilities to spend over the last 12 months the consumer saved 2.3 trillion above trend. we added stimulus to that. we do believe that consumer spending can run double digits for the next three years, 10, 11%. >> you can see from his presentation he included a picture of himself with his mom and noted there's this human behavior, this sense of people wanting to reconnect to one another and spend some more money. jon. >> many of us can relate to that thank you. now to tyler mathison for cnbc news update >> as the military conflict
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between israel and hamas continues to escalate. a high-rise building on a busy shopping street on gaza has been levelled by two pbomb it was the headquarters of a hamas satellite channel and housed other businesses. president biden's two hour get together with congressional leaders from both party has ended while republicans vow they won't abandon the trump tax cuts they say it was a positive meeting and they are willing to make a deal. >> there is certainly a bipartisan desire to get an outcome. clearly senate republicans are not interested in revisiting the 2017 tax bill. i think the president and vice president understand that. >> before that meeting, the democrats leader in the senate did not hold back as he blasted house republicans for removing liz cheney, a republican from
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wyoming for continuing to criticize former trump's claims that the election was stolen from him >> i'm not in habit of commenting on the house republican minority but today they have reached a new and very dangerous low point. republicans are seeking to perp pet wait an act upon the big lie that the election was stolen simply to play cat the most dishonest president in american history. >> jon, back to you. >> tyler, thank you. coming up, america's fighting a supply problem on multiple fronts. we have a look at the port containercrisis and frank is i georgia following the impact of the shuddered colonial pipeline. people are feeling it at the pump >> gas prices have jumped eight cents and there are outages across the south eastern united states we'll show you how people are responding to this issue and how they say it's impacting their
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ability to get to work and also their personal lives now over to jane wells withgistt has nothing to do with fuel. >> i'm in star ranch apple facility in quinn city washington farmers can't get anyone tyke their stuff. we'll have that story when the exchange returns when you buy this tea at walmart, walmart can buy more tea from milo's. milo's can create new jobs, jobs for people like james and lacey and me. me, i love my work family. family here and home, is my life is better for us because of a job. a job created when you buy this tea at walmart. ♪ ♪ wealth is breaking ground on your biggest project yet.
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welcome back america's supply problem isn't contained to one sector or industry we have team coverage looking at the issues facing suppliers across the country we have the latest on the gasoline shortage in parts of the southeast. people and goods can't move freely, it's hard for an economy to function. >> reporter: about 60% of gas stations don't have any fuel as this colonial pipeline outage continues to lit the south eastern states especially hard we're looking at a map right
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here north carolina, that's the hardest hit. more than a quarter of gas stations just don't have any fuel virginia, south carolina and georgia staying their numbers increase from this morning drivers here in the atlanta area are scrambling to find fuel and for some like delivery drivers, even these temporary outages are very serious >> the gas isn't here, i guess we won't have any work to do and no one will get their merchandise. >> you're also not going get paid >> i'll be out of a job. >> i had only 35 miles, which i should have gotten this morning i went back home. i got the app and it showed they had it i called to make sure and i headed here. >> reporter: the new spike in demand leading to a big spike in prices that are topping 3 dollar a gallon nationally, increasing eight cents over the last week deseal fuel increasing four
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cents a gallon and that could impact the trucking sector company leaders say the situation is deteriorating 70% of everything we buy in stores arrives there by truck. big question rgs, could this lead to higher prices. another question is even if the situation is resolved very quickly, how soon can we get the gas to the pumps according to the trade group that deliver fuel to different stations, about 25% of those trucks are idle because of a truck driver shortage. just last year that number was closer to about 10%. jon, back over to you. >> live lesson on inflation. thank you. >> reporter: the red delicious apple at star ranch should be in asia but it's in this freezing
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cold storage facility. a slowly, rotting symbol of the container crisis ports are congested. shipping are racing back the asia empty to pick up more because that's more profitableable now than hanging around to load up on exports and farmers are having a hard time getting anyone to take their products schedules keep changing. fri fright costs are skyrocketing. the ceo of the port of seattle said he's never seen anything like it. listen to what happens if you can get your fruit on a boat >> i had four loads of apples arrive in europe on friday normally that's a 28 to a 30-day boat ride. at worse, it'sg facility here. >> down in california, jonathan is losing business his almonds are plmissing their
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contracted delivery dates. he has trucks sitting on his property that's coasting him a boat load of money waiting for the ships to come in >> we would pay $300 to gate 40-foot into some port what we hear now is the inbound rates that shipping lines are charging those, bringing goods into the states are in the $5,000 per container range. >> reporter: some ag groups are writing to the transportation secretary pete buttigieg hoping he can do something. this happen l meant for asia could end up in our stores but these aren't big sellers here. back to you. >> wow important reporting from you and from frank holland thank you. now, dating stocks heat up people look to shed some pounds as the economy reopens and the billion flaires are losing
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billions we'll take a quick look at nasdaq down about 2.2% semi stocks among the worst performers the big cat names also moving lower. microsoft leading those declines the exchange is back aerhi ft ts. front desk. yes, hello... i'm so... please hold. ♪♪ i got you. ♪ all by yourself. ♪ go with us and get millions of flexible booking options.
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new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. let's catch you up on a few stories that should be on your radar. it's time for rapid fire here to help break down the headline, julia, robert and kate first topic, analysts say dating app, match and bumble are headed for a summer of love both stocks struggle as restrictions and social distancing put major pinch on dating but match beat on earnings while strong results are expected for bumble. is this case of a different kind of pent up demand?
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>> it certainly seems like pents up demand based on numbers we saw out of match it will be interesting to see what bumble reports here i think the key thing to watch is something that steef l pointed to which is number of people that aren't using the free service but sign up to pay. how many new paying subscribers does bumble debget. that will be a key indicator of how many people want to get out there. >> people will be on there looking for bill and melinda gates, perhaps >> yeah, now that mckenzie scott is married, there's only one ex-billionaire wife out there. what's interesting is that i remember when whitney wolfe was on our air saying back in february that the pandemic was great for online dating because people transferred their physical lives onto the virtual and digital and this would be a
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permanent shift and the pandemic wads a lhuge boost now they are saying it will be great for dating sites because people will be back in person and mingling again maybe both could be true once people can get out there, they go do bar, restaurants, concert, i don't think they will be as relients on these digital sites thazas they were doing the pandemic >> maybe coin base won't remain number one in the app store. maybe it's i can't go out and one of these dating apps will take the spot. >> they are calling it moderna girl summer. i don't know if you heard that or hot vax summer, pfizer girl summer to play on hot girl summer from megan the stallion >> whitney wolfe herd tomorrow on tech check. there's more to bumble the stock than bumble the app.
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>> it's not just bumble. it's also badoo which is an app we're not familiar with in the u.s. but it's very big internationally. this is a two app company here it's not just the name sake app bumble we'll see how those two apps grow bumble is less mature especially internationally. badoo let's the women make the first move but it's more of tradition fal dating service. >> a new digital token called internet computer soared to 45 billion dollar valuation just one day after its debut. that's likely due to its potential to disrupt the software industry. internet computer help kroeters publish content online without having to o go through cloud companies or internet giants kate, help us understand this. is this where we will find donald trump next. is doge coin in trouble.
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i can't believe i'm having to ask what is internet computer. >> people are looking to ride that wave that ethereum has seen it's looking as the network people are build things on they are trying to make a competitor and be that back end provider they call these projects because most of these are not live these really have not actually been used for anything yet their prices have skyrocketed. immediately within a week of launching is one of the top ten crypto currencies in the world you see so much excitement about things that are vapor wear to use an older tech term but these things aren't live yes, they want to compete with ethereum but a lot of these aren't live. the other thing, a lot of these are venture backed you're investing in the token, a lot of retail investors say i
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want to jump in next big thing what's the next dogecoin a lot of the real money, the real wealth creation is happening in the private market. a lot of speculation going on. >> are you buying internet computer >> what's fascinating about this and what kate mentioned is bitcoin is now old money you look at all of these alt coins started with doge coin and now internet computer which is a competitor to ethereum that goes along with polka dot, finance and all these others what investors really want is not so much legitimacy but growth bitcoin is stuck around 55, 60,000 all these other coins are taken offer. this is the declining dominance of bitcoin it's fascinating to watch.
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>> yeah. that scares me chasing growth versus legitimacy next up, demand for shape wear think spanx here as folks get ready for face-to-face interaction again. weight watchers shares are up more than 50% this year. new study found the average adult gained nearly 2 pounds per month during lockdowns julia you're out there in l.a. which is known for shapewear for people being conscience of their looks. perfect timing for oprah getting in on this business like she did. what do you think? >> i would say california is known for its healthy lifestyles what to me is so interesting about these trends is they all fit together people want to put on their best face they want to take off the sweat
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pant, put on real clothes, maybe some spanx underneath them weight watchers is such a fascinating success story because the pandemic really accelerated the shift from people wanted to go into in person meetings to it being a digital business and having this huge digital component and that is a very profitable shift for ww now that they can have higher particular gins there. they can reach many more people who didn't have the flexibility to go into regular meetings. a lot of potential there as they see the sort of, the health trend because ww is positioning itself more as a health company than a weight loss company benefitting from the digital reach of every one being stuck at home. >> ww is twice as many syllables to say as weight watchers. >> exactly that's an easier name.
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whether it's things like rent the runway retail, braces in some cases you'reseeing smile direct club as people want to straighten their teeth because things are reopening but a tail wind therer pretty recently there's more activity going on but i'm with you. i have renewing my represent the runway subscriptions and need to buy outfits so it's probably helping the companies. >> you're in northern california that's a different flavor of activity finally, the telegch selloff is bad. robert, which tech titans have gotten hit the hardest lately? >> got to start with elon musk he is down $30 billion basically just for some billionaire math he is down a
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steve swartzman or two david teppers and jeff bezos down $3 billion for the year not so bad but he is cashed out $6.5 billion worth of amazon shares in may. he has a $500 million yacht to build and some will go to there. i'm assuming so so yes they're less wealthy on paper but taking cash off the table. look at alex carp, $6 billion off the table from zoom stock to transfer to undisclosed recipients in march. yes they're down but also interesting to keep an eye as we
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decline more today and in the future where they take money off the table. >> now i have an image of elon musk looking in the wallet thank you. thank you, julia and kate. coming up, both cyber security and cloud stocks had a rough go of it but some are the street are saying to buy the dips we'll reveal the name next one size fits all? made to order or ready to go? with a hybrid, you don't have to choose. that's why insurers are going hybrid with ibm. with watson on a hybrid cloud they can use ai to help predict client needs and get the data they need to quickly design coverage for each one. busisses that want rsonalization and speed are going with a smarter hybrid cloud using the technology and expertise of ibm. nice bumping into you. obsession has many names, this is ours. the lexus is.
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it has been a stormy month for cloud stocks after posting two straight days of gains they're lower again today but some on the street seeing rainbows josh lipton has the names that could be poised for a turn around josh >> jon, start with the cloud stocks on track here for their eighth day of losses in the last ten sessions down more than 15 percent over the past 3 months. remember in 2020 this etf clou surged nearly 80%. pat at jmp tells me ten of the cloud net companies with results and not one disappointed five actually he says reported
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acceleration in the businesses but one traded up on the news. datadog and sees opportunity in this sector. he likes snowflake, workday, c 3 ai and asana and twilio on track for a worse month. i also did catch up with rob owens at piper the hack is now down about 10% over 3 months and that vastly underperforms tech and the broader market telling clients there's opportunity here to commit capital the top buys right now he tells me palo alto networks, rappid7 and crowdstrike.
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demand for the technology rob is betting will only increase from here due in part he says to the very kinds of ransomware attacks we just saw on the colonial pipeline back to you. >> i guess it makes sense. if you were into the narratives, look, if you liked snowflake at 390 back in december under love it at 190 now. i guess pick through the names josh lipton, thank you. and that will do it for "the exchange." coming up on "power lunch," inflation is the hot topic on wall street. we're going to take a look at the big names raisinalm llg arbe just "power lunch" starts after this quick break at chevron, we're lowering the carbon emissions intensity of our operations, investing in lower-carbon technologies, and exploring renewable fuels of the future. we work hard to care for the homes we love.
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lease the 2021 nx 300 for $349 a month for 36 months. experience amazing, at your lexus dealer. good afternoon welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler math son with rahel solomon. inflation is the story of the day. the cpi coming in hot. the markets not liking it. rates are rising tech stocks falling. but is this inflation just transitory we have been hearing that word a lot and likely hearing it more. >> we are already starting to see gas shortages in the southeast after the colonial pipeline hack. will they come to a gas station near

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