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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  May 14, 2021 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT

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been -- >> been moving it is clearly a big factor behind like wise the cdc which is to encourage more people to get vaccinated based on the mask aspect we need final thoughts mike out of time five seconds. >> have a great weekend. thanks everybody have a great weekend much more coming up now on "fast money. >> i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money. tonight's trader lineup. tonight on "fast," the bottom is in a bold call on the epicenter stocks and a big breakout in the reopening trade. plus check out the monster move in doge coin and bitcoin is almost back above 50 k and we'll break down the trade and get out your credit card, each of our traders have one name on their shopping list. but we start off with a tech trade roaring back to life the nasdaq rallying for the best
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day in more than two months. the s&p and dow posting big game gains but not enough for major ground loosing since monday. and what is the set up into next week brian kelly, what was this week all about? >> yeah, well this week was all about inflation or not inflation. is it sustainable or temporary that is what the market was trying to figure out and price in this week and what was interesting about today's action is we actually saw some pretty hot inflation numbers, particularly coming from import and export prices. also coming from michigan inflation expectation, one year ahead and five year ahead were both higher than expected but the equity market and frankly the bond market as well didn't respond to those so that tells me that for now we have priced in any inflationary scare. secondary, if you're thinking
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about retail sales that were kind of weak, this leaves it open for the fed to stay loose for a long time which probably feeds into the tech trade again. we get stable interest rates, loose monetary policy, it should do well. >> this feels like goldilocks, one week ago we had strong hand and weak data that allows the fed to be loose still but allows the marks to advance here. so where are we right now in sort of that range >> goldilocks, right in the center of goldilocks so all of the data points that brian just laid out for us were accurate and they would make you think that the ten-year should be, where? above 2% at least at the very least. how about it didn't hit the 1.74% level. that to me says goldilocks it screams of goldilocks
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everything trades off just enough to let you get kind of back in. so you have google with the monster's earnings print and then proceeded to trade down 10% from that level, kissed its 50-day and then bounced again. apple, 200 day, tim talked about it during the week, 200 day moving average and kissed that and bounced off it by about $5 amazon, the same type of thing wound up kissing the 200 day and around the 100 day facebook bounced off the 50 day. sort of a little bit for -- a little bit of everything for everyone that invests in the mark place you had a pull back on mega cap tech people rushed in and bought it and felt like they were getting a bargain and now you see the resource trade and the industrials and the materials, the energy space rallying yet again. that is where to put your money
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going forward. >> so with the back drop of all of those tech shares rallying today, delano, we saw norwegian cruise line up and alive nation up 5.6%. concurrent with the tech rally trade opening as well. so do we get a decision finally next week? it seems like we have these days are where everything rallies and then it breaks down again. >> yeah, melissa, that is what i was loobking to watch. and the data points that the gentleman mentioned prior, they're correct. the market had a -- and then we saw a kind of a heavy bounce back based on obviously we have m-1 and m-2 vertical and there is money to be put into the market when we see a pullback or dip. not what i want to watch going forward because we've seen the fed saying that inflation numbers are transitory
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that means we need to see more data for what the next couple of months to really get a good gauge for investors to understand what is the biggest play there but as we saw with the survey, that cnbc ran, the biggest thing for market and big fund managers looking at is what is happening with the inflation numbers and that is what i think is driving the markets at the beginning of the week where the biggest pullback market movers got jitters that was able to bounce back with the money and the monetary physical market. >> it will be quite a summer whenever we have inflation data. that is what i'll say right now. brian kelly, in the university of michigan, in the survey which you mentioned, the expectation on part of consumers of higher prices in the next year, that is clear. about half of them expect higher prices, maybe even by as much as 5% and i'm wondering if terms of the consumer psychology, because the fed could pontificate and put out theories and be logical,
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et cetera, et cetera, but in the real world if i'm a consumer and i'm worried that things are going up, i'm buying stuff right now. because i'm anticipating so there is a psychology that come news play how does that impact your view of the markets, if at all? >> right well no, it does that is why i keyed on that today. because the inflation expectations are where it could get dangerous for exactly what you said you start to get this inflationary spiral and you already see shortages. so people go out and buy cars. look at what happened with toilet paper last year now it is the entire economy wide so that does impact my view a lot and i've thought about what sectors will benefit and i thought about and i said this last weekend and i think it is starting to play out in the market, but i actually think tech could do pretty well in inflationary environment and here is why. all of their input costs are likely not going up. they're not using necessarily copper and steel and oil and so they actually might be a
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bit of a safe haven and inflationary environment which may be a little bit of what we saw today. >> tech does well in good weather and in bad weather, brian kelly. and at the same time, before i get to grasso, tech could rally along with the reflation trade because tech could be your save haven. >> i mean, i think that could be the case absolutely now where that completely falls apart is if you really get much higher interest rates. i'm talking long bond or ten years above 2.5%. >> right which i would imagine that that chairman powell would not allow that to happen for that sort of jump in the ten-year yield to happen but steve grasso, i know you're all in on the reflation trade but how about tech that could do well in that environment >> i don't think he's that far off base if we stay -- >> that is a ringing
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endorsement. >> yeah. so, well, i don't think he means tech like zoom i don't think he means really high multiple names. i think he means a google, a facebook and an apple. i think that is what b.k. is saying so, yes, i think they could do fairly well. i wouldn't say that that is where people are going to run to put their money. but we're talking about rates below two. if you spike these rates, forget two, if you spike them to three, the only game in town is going to be the value play right. so you're going to be into the diversified chemical space, into all of the industries. you're not going to find a safe haven in any tech if we get to 3%. >> but you're not positioning for 3% are you? >> no, i'm not positioning for 3% no i think 3% is a little too steep and i'm justen am orred that we haven't gotten above 3% which means we enter into this
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environment in a heavily deflationary environment so i think a little bit of inflation will be a welcome sight for me i'm positioning for 2, 2 1/2 max, not three. >> with all of the inflation data, we weren't able to break above 1.74 which is the high which tells you something. let's get to our guest he said we're ready for a break out. tom lee calling it today saying the bottom is in for the epicenter stocks including names like best buy, cat, amd and mosaic and it is a "fast money" friend and joins us now why do you think it is a bottom here for the epicenter. >> i think four important things happened this week first, and think the most important is the cdc lifted all restrictions for fully vaccinated americans that not only speaks to how effective vaccines are, but i think it really hints to the policy lifting on the restrictions for cruise lines and things that have really been decimated during covid
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that is huge for epicenter the second is india cases are rolling over and that is really taking down the tail risk of a global shutdown. third is the market had a failed attempt at a crash the vix didn't even manage to break 30 after rising 80% over three days and it is now fallen almost 50% so that is a big risk on signal. and then i think as an extra credit for those who follow demark small caps which we think is a really important proxy for the epicenter stocks because it is full of epicenter stocks have a seccen shall nine count and then registered a 13 buy signal on the combo so this happened to energy stocks on april 23rd what happened ten days later nearly a 20% rally so i think there is a huge rally underway for small caps. >> hey, tom, it is b.k so i'm curious, the one thing
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that i'm looking at next week, obviously, is oil prices you just mentioned energy. do higher oil prices help or hurt your small cap call >> i think it is helping i think what people have to do is adjust inflation for gasoline prices for instance, even if gasoline hits $3, and someone it is a ten-year high, you have to remember on a nominal income basis that is equivalent to $2.50 ten years ago. so gasoline and energy and oil have to push up above the 80 level when is the goldman target before we say it is crowding out spending the last time it was at 80 so i think it is a reflationary signal. >> tom, when you look at your epicenter stocks, what do you think about the rest of the world, though? broaden this out what do you feel about europe
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and the recovery there because i'm seeing a lot of different funds saying the real money to be made in the next six months to a year is going to be in those economies ratcheting back up and reopening because they've lagged behind us >> yeah, i mean, i wouldn't disagree with that because let's think about the story arc. if it is commodity prices are up, nearly 40% of the world are commodity producing countries because they export. those are going to be booming economies and booming equity markets. as you point out, europe is reopening and there is a lot of coun countries tied to european trade improving and those are going to be great equities. but the one thing i would hesitate to say i think we want our clients to own the best companies. and besides u.s. large cap, a lot of u.s. small caps dominate markets and a lot of mexican countries -- companies in mexico are blue chipped in the s&p.
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i don't know if you find a lot of blue chips outside of the u.s. >> all right tom, we're going to leave it there. great to get your insights tom lee of fund strat. we have a couple of screens that shows tom epicenter stocks like best buy, monster, burg warner, and polty was an interesting one. which stocks do you like in terms of epicenter >> melissa, i'm looking at target as one of the stocks that i like here. and i think the biggest thing for target was the re-up of foreign competitors over the time of the pandemic, right. and the biggest thing now is we reopen is what happens to the companies that really performed well target and the companies that were essential companies during that time, target also had a strong e-commerce strategy and that bode well for target and now when we look forward, target also has a strong essentials, strong e-commerce but the reopening is a strong play going forward so target is one that i really like at this time.
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>> grasso, you came in with the international angle. that what you're looking at next i hear that from a lot of people they're behind us in terms of opening so maybe that is the next place for value. >> yeah. for me, i'm in a stock called trin sayo tse and that has a higher leverage to the global economy or to europe versus the u.s. so look for stocks if you want to buy an etf, that is levered to europe reopenings, that is great. but look for your names that have an outside leverage to europe make 60% europe or 40% here and thereabouts. but you shouldn't look for domestic names like the home builders because there is too much headwinds for them. >> b.k., what i noticed in today's session was a lot of the commodities that had hit record highs coming off and i'm wonder field goal we're at a point where we're seeing elasticity,
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the pricing is getting high and we don't want to pay it and the prices come back down and we reach that sort of natural point. >> i think in some commodities have and when you look at polty, there is plenty of wood around the bottleneck is at the sawmill. so you could start hiring people and there is demand there. so i wouldn't be surprised to see something like lumber start to come down which again would be a really good thing for a pulte homes. their input cost would go down they still have unbelievable demand of tom's epicenter stocks, that is the one i'm watching. >> coming up, the block chain boom weerp breaking down the crazy week for crypto. and where we're headed next. but first we're going shopping major retailers will report next week find out which of the names our traders are adding to their carts. muchor me "fast money" right after this 3.
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...to give you personalized assistance around the clock. and we're committed to keeping our team and customers safe by working from home... ...and using precautions in store. see what we're up to at xfinity.com/commitment welcome back to "fast money. retail sales stalling in april but a look inside of the report gives you a good read on the consumer shifting spending on clothing and furniture and spending on bars and restaurants
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and autos rose a bunch of big names report next week so we wanted to know what one we're watching heading into next week steve, why don't you kick it off. >> so macy's is my barometer for the retail space believe it or not. i know you could pick a host of other names, but macy's came into the pandemic extremely weak and they've done a number of things trying to control their inventory, just different strategies around e-commerce and strategies about in-person shopping and stores are reopening and the stock is up 60%. i want to see if all of those initiatives work for macy's because if it does, it has a good chance of working for the rest of the retail space the name i'm long is capri holdings they don't report for two weeks but macy's is my barometer. >> delano, how about you. >> i talked a little bit before and the name is target and there is a couple of reasons why and you if look at the operating
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margins, they have higher operating margins than walmart and we've been talking about prices being passed to consumers so how does that play for companies like target and that could possibly increase giving back to shareholders with increase dividends with the sort of likes like that and why i like target is you look at what companies do across the board, whether we had essentials and now looking for higher prices goods, goods that are no longer needed for essentials so target has much more room to run and we have to taper expectations when it comes to e-commerce because that is probably going to slow down for a couple of quarters for companies doing really well during the height of the pandemic time. so i'm really still looking at target it is one i'm long and still bullish on. >> brian kelly >> well for me it is the home depot. so as you astutely pointing out, there is a shift of what people are buying clothing and that type of thing.
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a fortnight ago i bought a pair of slacks in a long time is there a finite amount of dollars where i could only spend on slacks or are people like steve grasso who is gardening buying both slacks and garden supplies that is a key whether or not we're going to have this sustained economic boom. >> i didn't think of one precluding the other but that is a good point people have limited dollars. i hope steve is wearing pants though coming up, doge doing it again and will it be rough trading ahead. apologies for that the trade is next. and later, is it time to catch in your chips on mgm, shuffling the deck and dealing that trade. n' have that and much more dot go anywhere. never just another day.t's it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business
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comcast business powering possibilities. welcome back to "fast money. we have a bitcoin alert. twitter and square ceo jack dorsey tweeting this bitcoin changes everything for the better and we will forever work to make bitcoin better the cryptocurrency breaking out today moving back above 50,000 earlier. brian kelly, it is interesting because elon musk raising the climate concern and jack dorsey seems to be addressing that saying overall, even if you have those concerns, bit coin improves everything. what do you think? it is like a war of words here >> yeah. so, a battle of the billionaires in bitcoin a triple b so aliteration aside, it continually improves bitcoin uses a lot of electricity and a lot of studies
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shows that is renewable and therefore bitcoin is like a subsidy for green energy but let's say it was completely mind with coal dirty energy, the history of tech shows you it could improve and get better so that looks like an investment this thing is going to get better if that is the only problem you with v with bitcoin is some province in china has a lot of coal and they mine bitcoin and if that changes elon will come back and be buddies with jack again. >> this climate issue or the fact that bitcoin using -- that has been around for a while. so is it the bitcoin miners, is it 70% of the energy they use is renewable or something like that a lot of the energy they use is energy that other wise would not even be used >> that is exactly right that is exactly right. so you look at china, which is the biggest miner.
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of five largest provinces. four use hydroand it is almost 90% of the bitcoin mine in china is done with renewable energy. it is only one province which is inner mongolia that has that you look at washington and here in the u.s., 80% of the bitcoin mine is with renewable energy. so they're looking for the cheapest energy out there. renewable and hydroand resources that tend to be stranded and there is a lot of it tend to give you cheap energy so bitcoin is a subsidy for clean energy. >> real quick, delano, would you rather, coin base or bitcoin. >> oh, bitcoin definitely. >> why real quick. >> high level i think we're talking about a payment source, a payment network, we're looking at store value, we're looking at something that as brian was mentioning, it is bigger than just an exchange, right.
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we're looking an evolving technology. >> okay, time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. >> west rock broke out in city's break out. >> delano. >> zoom. i like zoom. i would go zoom here. >> brian kelly. >> o'reilly automotive if you can't buy them, you have to fix them. orly. >> do not go anywhere. "options action" is up next.
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welcome to friday and "options action. here is what is coming up. >> i'm sorry, how much carter worth explains why paper towels and other consumer staples are the best way to clean up after any inflation related mess then strike up the band. professor khouw. and know when to fold them a cautionary travel play that is getting too rich for his blood right now.
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