or a great radical re-set of positions. butting it sort of healing under the surface and if we skim away some of the excess expectations and getting prices back under control. we've done that in the last several weeks. >> bitcoin back close to 45 k. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" starts now. >> i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money. tonight's lineup tonight on "fast," the key to the market one of our traders said look at this if you want to know where stocks are headed next we'll drill down on that straight head. plus big news out of berkshire hathaway selling 99% of the stake in wells fargo and we'll get our traders reaction and later we'll tell you what airbnb investors are running for the door at&t announcing a whopping deal

with discovery let's get to julia boorstin with the details and analysis. >> well the combination of discovery and warner media creates one of the biggest media companies in the world discovery brings global sports rights, reality tv strength and that is designed to compliment the news and domestic sports and the original content in hbo and hbo max. together the company spended $20 billion on content and the ceo said that he plan to spend more this is a play for scale and advertising and if streaming discovery zaslav saying they could reach as many as 400 million subscribers. >> warner together with discovery will be a really strong global force. but also that the vision for john and i was the number one telecommunications company in the world and the number one

media company in the world and that's the mission that we're both on and we both now have the tools to accomplish it. >> and at&t ceo john stanky said this will allow his shareholders to realize the value of warner media direct to consumer strength in hbo max while at&t could focus on its core. >> i'm absolutely confident we're going to see good things for both equities when this is all said and done. right now, our focus is on making sure we're the best broadband company in america >> well, melissa, shares of both stocks did close lower at&t down 2.7 and discovery off 5% there was concern about at&t cutting its dividend back over to you. >> which was fat prior to the announcement today, julia. i'm curious, maybe selfishly, we both work for comcast, the parent company of nbc universal and when you take a look at this

deal is dismantles the pipes plus business content model. what is your take or the take of the people you talk to about what this imputes on comcast's value? >> well, look, i think that the comcast pipes are different because it does have that core cable business comcast also has peacock which is an add supported play so going in a different direction hbo did not have an ad supported version, and hbo max did not have an ad supported version but they're prepared to launch in june so i do think that the companies are different. i don't think it is an apples-to-apples comparison. think there is more consolidation and we could expect an nbc universal to look at other potential assets to acquire down the line. and it might depend on how long it takes for the deal to get approved there is an expectation that the regulatory hurdles are not insurmountable unlike at&t with deal approval in the past, that this deal will get approved but maybe it could take longer than

at&t and discovery are hoping it will take. >> julia, thank you. she's been on the story all day. tim, i'll go to you. you're the at&t shareholder. you pounded the table on at&t. now what >> good question i mean, look, i'm very mixed feelings about this deal the stock was starting to move the hbo max streaming dynamic was starting to be built into the share price. we were starting to get the sense of a debt paydown and yet we still have this extraordinary dividend i think a lot of the movement in the stock today which basically from open to close moves down about 7.5%, around that dividend remember, the dynamic here is at&t now is going to ramp up capex dramatically to improve fiber and 5g buildout and what they need to compete in that space and the dividend will go around to somewhere around 4.6%. very interesting, the exact dividend payout percentages is verizon, which is a key

competitor, who also recently just closed on selling off their media assets, remember the aol stuff. so it is a strange day for at&t shareholders i think because the company was starting to show some progress on both fronts in terms of the core business and even the media business and this reflects a desire that maybe those assets that three years ago were worth $85 billion are now worth $85 billion or $88 billion today. >> right for at&t, a big component is paying down the debt, the massive amounts of debt on the balance sheet. so that is good from a balance sheet perspective. dan, i'm curious, where do you go on this there are so many places to go whether it be the streaming wars heating up or what this does to at&t and what this means for the communication industry, et cetera. >> yeah, you know, i think all of us over the last few years were hoping that at&t might get reraided because of the assets they have the pipes and 45%

market share here in the u.s. and there is a way to see a lot of synergy between having the content and the pipes. and i just think that we were talking about it earlier, i've never seen such a dramatic shift for a major corporation at the nexus of these technologies. and i think tim lays it out clearly. look at what happened since the deal closed a couple of years ago. t-mobile has merged with sprint so they've become a strong number three they were weak three and four players. t-mobile stock has gone up 100% in the last two and a half years while at&t has gone down and verizon has gone up a little bit. and tim just mentioned that verizon in the last quarter, they lost more wireless ads than were expected and then what did we see the announcement of selling the oath of the yahoo and aol assets this is a dramatic about face and it is a more competitive

wireless landscape here in the u.s. that maybe it was five years ago. >> guy, where do you go on this trade. >> before i go on the trade, i will say transformational, i heard it when at&t bought direct tv then i heard it five years ago when they spent $85 billion on warner, right. and forget about the fact that they throw away money with leap and next wave or whatever those things were a decade or so ago so they keep doing the same thing over and over again and i wake up and every single day it is a $31 stock where do you go. everybody wants to be netflix. and tim will correctly point out, great to talk about netflix except the stock has traded sideways since june of last year it is been somewhere between 480 and 550 the entire time. so even netflix isn't the play to go. i think dan said it, as counter intuitive as it might sound, the one company that stuck to their knitting has been t-mobile and that served them very well where do go in the space

i guess comcast is a valuable asset, it is a question of what happens with the stock >> why do you think comcast becomes a very valuable asset? >> well, i mean, maybe i should rephrase i think they -- they're in a position where they're forced to do something although i think they're dealing with strength as opposed in my opinion, at&t is just throwing darts at board look at the history for the last seven years. >> brian kelly, i will get you to a minute, i promise but maybe i'm asking this selfishly as a comcast employee, but guy, forced to do something meaning they make an acquisition or they follow in the footsteps of at&t and focusing on the core >> yeah, it is interesting, it can't happen because i'm sure there will be regulatory concerns but you know, viacom, comcast thing, if you strip out a couple of things is becomes very interesting. and i think rich greenfield

spoke about that and he said it is not going to happen either. but that came to my head when this went down this morning. >> brian kelly, your thoughts now. >> well, for me, i would take a look at other side of the deal on discovery because what we know about at&t is they're not very good at buying assets and selling assets so maybe they've sold these assets at the wrong time would you suspect that discovery would have traded better had it not been destroyed by the hedge fund blowup over the last month. so i think somewhere around here you want to see discovery, you want to see maybe new buyers come in, a new set of shareholders that are willing to buy into that story that streaming is going to be the new place whereas at&t, to tim's point, you have to spend an awful lot of money to be competitive on this. yeah, you get to pay down some debt, and maybe the dividend is a little bit safer than it was yesterday. but to me i think you look at discovery, would you wait for it to try to bottom

it is trying to do that now. but maybe get one of those big was washout days, reversal, and that is when i start to look at discovery. >> let's get more about what this mega deal means for the media space. joining us now is jessica. great to have you with us on this day what do you is the biggest ramification of this deal on the industry. >> it is a really big deal and it is the second time that the old time warner found a home that wasn't expected but at least this time it is in media hands and will be nurtured and hopefully come back to life. they've been warner brothers -- or the old time warner has amazing assets we shouldn't forget that they just wilted under at&t's management so, we'll see. we'll see what businesses develop and i think it will be a completely different story in a year but there are ramifications for -- i mean the entire sector.

from a discovery at&t perspective, there is going to be a turnout, a complete changeover to shareholder base it is 71% of the new company will be owned by at&t shareholders who are used to a 7% dividend. they're not going to get that from a company that has to invest to drive the streaming business so, there will be a change out from that. in addition, historically whenever there is a big acquisition in media, no matter how great it is, your parent company comcast made the most brilliant acquisition with incredible financial terms when they bought nbc universal in the tranches, but it is an amazing deal and the stock really went sideways from the time they announced it until they closed so discovery sort of stuck in deal limbo right now anyway. and they won't close until mid '22. so, you think there is a lot of opportunity but it will take some time to play out. for the rest of the industry, it is kind of like disney buying

most of the fox assets it is the time for reflection for the big media companies. >> right. >> what assets do they need to have over the next three years obviously grants matter, scales matter, balance sheets matter. and i think they're all going internally to say what do i need to have and what could i -- and so you put companies into play you guys just talked about comcast. >> right. >> it would be an acquirer but viacom, who knows if sherry red stone really wants to sell there are tons of pieces with a whole or in parts that are incredibly attractive. fox is small enough to be broken up further and go away or they have great assets. but they have a great balance sheet. they could also get paper. so this is a time that we'll see a lot of movement. >> right sure and i'm wondering, when at&t

selling its media assets with verizon doing the same, jessica, and i know you've been a bull of comcast for quite sometime, you have a buy rating on the stock why is it that kmcomcast model works and others don't and does this prove that comcast is a great executor of this business model or proof that maybe she thud reflect and think about separating core from content >> the answer is the former. comcast has phenomenal management from the top down from the corporate, from brian roberts down and from the divisional level the every part of the company, they really run their businesses welch al, and you look at nbc, run by shell and everybody under him, they've done a phenomenal job. so as much as -- as tough as ed warner, the old time warner has

been under at&t, it is been quite the opposite at nbc u. so i think it goes to comcast management style and who they hire they've done a great job of integrating the businesses as well and i do think it is likely that they ultimately get big err bigger in -- there are a lot of company that's could fit in that could help the theme parks and business and stream content that would fit with them. >> jessica, it is tim, thanks for joining us fascinating day as you said in the sector now you're left with three, really four mammoth streaming plays and then a lot more consolidation possibly to go but whether it is netflix, disney plus, clearly peacock and now what we have here, what do you think is really the net end game for everybody are they going to sit tight or is there more consolidation because some have direct exposure and linear not so good and some have the studio or the

content, and they all have different, call them advantages here >> i totally agree this is a chance to kind of rearrange assets but again scale matters. disney has -- disney acquired a lot. from over the last ten or 15 years. they bought pixar followed by marvel followed by lucas which is the "star "star wars" band and i think there is probably room to grow through acquisition. as well as this is a big move by discovery now they have to -- they have to flush out their direct to consumer plan. so they've substantial but they're certainly not there right now. and so for other players, the other players are not -- first is netflix and amazon, but everybody else has to scale up and figure out a strategy. you know, i'm going to again go to comcast and nbc, they have a

different strategy and it is really interesting so peacock with their strategy is a great opportunity or a great platform tor advertisers. >> right >> jessica, we have to leave it there. thank you so much for joining us we do appreciate it. from bank of america merrill lynch. dan nathan, for the media industry, this space has changed over the past five years what do you think and this is going to -- might be a curve ball but i know you could handle it what is the media deal that we haven't thought of yet, that think is coming down the pipe? >> well, mel, remember when karen and i broke some "fast money," we did a double power pitch on viacom. >> i do remember that. >> this is not the one that is not on people's radar but it is likely the one that should happen and when you think of the size of it and the enterprise value of this think, this makes a lot of sense to me especially for some of the competitors now

looking at disney and the new combination and looking at how to size up for what will be just a different landscape going forward with, as tim said, a handful of streaming behemoths. >> warren buffett nearly closing out positions in one of the financials that is a headline that got all of the traders talking after the close. we'll break it down. and b.k. said there is one sector that could hold the real key where stocks are heading it is not tech and it may not be pretty we'll tell you what it is. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. she'll say she's got goals. and since she's got goals, she might need help reaching them, and so she'll get some help from fidelity, and at fidelity, someone will help her create a plan for all her goals, which means suzie will be feeling so good about that plan, she can just enjoy right now. that's the planning effect, from fidelity.

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welcome back to "fast money. big news out of warren buffett closing after the close. let's get to leslie with the details. >> an unusual trade for berkshire hathaway cut ago way half of the stake in chevon and revealed only in the fourth quarter. at the end of march, however, berkshire still owned about $2.5 billion worth, despite selling 25 million shares during the quarter. berkshire hathaway had been pairing back the stake in wells fargo as well. but during the quarter the firm almost completely sold out divesting nearly 99% of its holdings at quarter end,

berkshire has a $26 million stake in wells fargo warren buffett's firm also selling about 5.5 million shares of gm during the quarter now all three names, chevron, wells fargo and gm had been huge winner this is year and berkshire had indicated this month that it was a net seller of equities during the quarter. >> leslie, thank you with the latest on that. wells fargo, that move was very big. and just last week, tim, as guy pointed out on our conference call, you and karen talked about trimming your positions in bank of america >> yeah, and, look, the banks have been such big winners and if you look at the performance from the s&p since november it is north of 60%. so if you look at wells fargo, the interesting thing is this is really maybe the quarter that you started to see wells fargo closing the gap on a relative basis to some of the other banks. so our -- maybe slightly tactical cal in bank of america i think may be different than buffet who is not terribly

tactical to his credit, i think. it is interesting if you look at the stock, since the close of march 31, we don't know whether they were selling most the shares, but the stock is up 21% quarter to date. so it tells you, you get a big seller out of the way and also in a time when banks have had a favorable back drop. that may be helping wells fargo. a stock which we all know had underperformed for a long time and now has been outperforming. >> what is that expression, guy, cutting the flowers to trim the weeds or vice versa. >> don't cut your flowers if you have weeds or don't smoke weed while your cutting your flowers. >> that is not what i said that is not what i said. >> the question is, did mr. buffet sell too soon guy? >> well, it is interesting, i think wells fargo traded north of 40 during that time period. so, yes in retrospect, he did.

the obvious answer is yes. but i think wells fargo is a weed by the way. if you look, bank of america is trading north of two times tangible book. wells fargo is about 1.4 wells fargo should trade in my opinion on a benign take closer to tangible book than the rest of them. so in the parthenon of banks it is a weed. jp morgan is a bouquet of roses. >> parthenons don't have -- that is all wrong >> but you know what i'm saying. >> unfortunately i do, oddly brian kelly, which trade do you like or dislike the most that berkshire hathaway did in the quarter? >> you know, so the one that is most interesting to me is chevron. because i'm keeping a keen eye on oil and what is going on there. but i would mention that one, i've never really traded 13 f's,

but in buffet's case, you could glean a couple of things from it and the takeaway for me is maybe this has nothing to do with the individual companies and maybe it has everything to do with that he had a big profit in them he thinks taxes are going up so this is not a bad time to take that profit and lock in those gains and not have to do it later in the year. >> that is interesting all right. we're just getting started here on "fast money." here is what is coming up next >> everyone is worried about where big tech is heading. but b.k. said there is one sector that will really drive the markets. the traders are plugging into that trade next. plus the crypto craze is collapsing bitcoin falling hard but have no fear, the chart master is here to lay out where it could be headed next. enfa mgot that and a lot more wh "stoney" returns. experience capability, crafted by lexus. the remarkable gx and lx. lease the 2021 gx 460 for $529 a month for 36 months.

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welcome back to "fast money. markets closing with losses to kick off the week with nasdaq falling for a third straight day. but b.k. said the key to the market is not what happens with tech, but with energy. and it could be a lose-lose situation. b.k., please explain. >> yeah, geez and i haven't had my bear suit on for a long time so lose-lose sounds terrible so for me it is looking at the oil market, right. because there is a lot you could get from the oil market at this point in time in terms of global demand and inflationary pressure so oil looks like it is starting to trade, maybe it is going to trade north of $70 on wti, you have a limited upside there between 70 and 80, at $80 is where the most street thinks that is going to be your inflationary pressures so if you get a break out and it

breaks past 80, i think the market could have some trouble there digesting that thinking, okay, here is the next leg of the inflationary pulse conversely, if oil happens to fall from these levels, the market will interpret that as saying, wow, global demand has died and unless there is some kind of supply event but global demand has died and therefore the economy is not as strong as we thought it was and therefore will drive equity prices lower so i think it is a really key juncture here for oil and the equity markets, the markets will tell us which way they want us to go, what we want to do. but either way, keep watching oil because it is going to move equity markets. >> i like where b.k. is going with this, guy but i'm curious, do you think that this particular commodity is the best read in terms of inflationary or are there too many other factors whether it be the saudis or xy and z or a ship getting stuck someplace that

sort of muddies the water. >> clear unrest in the middle east, a lot of things going on i think ten more years ago b.k. would say this is far more important. i think he's on to something i think you over lay that with the other commodities that we talk about seemingly every night and there is a story here. if you're looking for equities that might continue to tell the story for b.k., the levered names are the ones that do it. we talk about this all of the time, phillips psx, it traded back to 76 well here it is again and a close above 90 and that is off to the races a dog will clearly likes that as well so i'm with the dog. i think psx, that is the one $90 being your pivot level. >> very outspoken dog on the panel someplace. markets are underestimating the real threat inflation could pose nancy davis is quad rattic

capital and the etf which is an inflation hedge. nancy, great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> you saw that the markets are underestimates the amount of inflation out there because cpi is not a good measure. we know that cpi is not a good measure so i wonder how much inflation do you think we really have on our handed right now. >> i think we could all feel it. any american consumer, have you tried to buy a bike or a webcam, have you tried to buy a sofa, a computer everything uses chips and we're having a global chip shortage so i definitely think it is a tough time where the cpi index is not capturing the real inflation on a day-to-day basis. >> but this is just transitory this will pass in a few months and you laughed immediately. so this does that mean that you think that is bunk when it comes to consumers actually feeling the pinch. it doesn't matter what jay

powell said, it matters what is happening right now in the economy. >> i think the fed is prioritizing the unemployment rate over prices right now they have a dual mandate we still have a very, very high unemployment rate. they're trying to get people back to work, back into the economy to stimulate main street and i think the fed is willing to look past inflation and i think that is -- what they've been saying is every central bank around the world has been trying to get inflation. i think if they get inflation they'll see it as a win. the thing that they're really focused on is the unemployment number, though >> nancy, it is brian kelly. so i'm curious, that unemployment number seems to be a bit skewed because we hear it is hard to find help, yet unemployment went up so there is something that the fed isn't capturing or in their numbers it is not capturing. i'm curious, do you think that the fed is making a policy error as we speak? >> i don't think they're making

a policy error think tlhey're trying to do the best they can. nobody is perfect. we have to major indices and that is a key point to emphasize that if you're a spot in the dow jones and that is one index. the cpi is one index it is consumer price index and the pc is another index. it is very hard to measure something like inflation and i think the rates market is a very pure and simple way of actually seeing where investors will lend money in the future and that is largely a result of investors' expectations for inflation in the future. >> based on how your etf is being treated in terms of the volume and how it is being traded, nancy, i'm wondering if you could sort of glean how investors are positioning themselves for inflation, if they do think it is just, you know, just a few months kind of

thing, a few quarters kind of thing, et cetera >> i think most of our investors who use eyeball r not making a bet about whether inflation is going to happen or not most of them, there with two ways that people could lose their life savings a., is having portfolios where everything is together and the other is a loss of purchasing power from inflation so i think most of our ooinvestr are using it as an asset allocation trade saying we want to have inflation in our portfolio but we want another index beyond cpi. >> great to have you with. thank you. nancy davis. dan nathan, what do you think? >> i think, mel, we're going to look back on 2021 and we're going to call it the transitory tantrum. from 2013, when rates got to about 3% and equities freaked

out for a little bit i think the time that economists and strategists and pundits like us or spending on this inflation thing, we know inflation has been here and it gets measure differently and people were yelling about inflation was coming back from 2008 and '09 when we started qe and zirp. so i don't know what the big deal is. we're going to have the periods where there is big shortages we just have the biggest disconnect in the global economy in a hundred years yeah, there are shortages and certain surpluses in other places i think we're going to look back and think that is kind of funny. they told us they were going to let inflation run a little high. i think we're making a big to do about nothing. >> in retrospect maybe that will be the case. but we're in the fall, tim, we're in the fall when inflation is still here and consumers and price increases go through on things like pampers and paper towels, unemployment benefits

come off, eviction moratoriums come off, what happens then? because it is all about how this economy claws its way out of this recession that was induced by the pandemic. and maybe it is not the right time for inflation in terms of a smooth economic recovery >> well, i think, dan is right to say let's take a deep breath here and there is imbalances that clearlyexist and they wil be eradicating in a free flowing economy which i think we're eventually going to get. i think we could all push back and i'll phrase it as i think i've said it before this way and others have said this, the fed is chasing whether it is 50 bips or 100 basis points of inflation at the risk of a global asset -- copper prices and lumber prices are at all-time highs and housing is at all-time highs and we have created and not talking about the stock market so the question is at what point

are we going to pay the price for this by the way, how about that payroll number of last friday. do you think that will show up no, the inefficiency is the payroll data series means that i think the numbers for may will be extraordinary and that is going to be even scarier for people i think that first friday of june you better be switched on so i think in the short run, the fact that fed policy needs to be altered is devastating for equities right now it is not and i think we could give or take some spikes and get through this, but at sp point this year, they're going to have to make an adjustment. >> coming up, bitcoin is in need of some love as the crypto continues to sink and the chart master is here to update his big call on the next move but first shares of airbnb may need room service as the ipo lockup remains we're checking into this "fast money" is back in two.

welcome back to "fast money. investors checking out of airbnb today. shares dropping more than 6% as the stocks post lockup expires beating expectations when it reported last thur stock is still up nearly 95%

from its ipo price dan, what do you think of this action today >> you know, i had a call with jim cannico the other day and he said if your story is how much it is down from the all-time high you're doing it wrong here and i think we're seeing that in a lot of the recent ipos over the last six months or so. airbnb just reported it was a great quarter they're going to be a winner in the new hospitality doughain prepandemic and got nailed last year and coming out of it pretty strong and they're going to do fantastic. except for one issue the stock is trading at about 24 times sales and investors seem to be focused on those metrics right now. so to me i love the story and i want to be long the stock and i think we'll do well in the back half the year but i can't tell you that it could live at this valuation in this market. >> the dog barking in the background is almost comical

sorry. it is brian kelly's, i could tell by the intonation of the bark there are airbnb guys on this panel. you have said that you like this one. the issue here is that there is tremendous demand for this but on boarding host is a very difficult thing and at some point there is a supply limit, centur isn't there, to that there is a ceiling to this company's growth guy, i'll let you take that one. >> you're 100% right dan just gave you the metric that people are most focused on. it speaks to what you're saying an owning this stock has been more than a bit caustic to your portfolio. but the quarter was spectacular and wells fargo the next day after they reported said love the quarter, $200 price target which was about 47% higher than where the stock is now so they're not concerned with

valuation. the metrics were good and the good news is today the stock trades 40 million shares and you flushed a lot of people out. it trades about five and maybe in the form of 130 i've been wrong for a long time. >> dan, you wanted to quickly reply, i want to correct myself. i said 24 times sales and it is 15 times sales an at the highs it was above 20. and next year, still kind of reasonable on next year's number but who knows what will that be. but that is still an issue on boarding new homes an that tort of thing there is still a lot of questions on this one. >> coming up, bitcoin's wild ride as the crypto continues to fall and the chart master carter worth are breaking down this move next. plus it is a tough year for chinese internet stocks but one just made a bet that tngarhis e about to change on one name. more "fast money" right after this

welcome back to "fast money. check out shares of coin base closing below the $250 reference price for the first time since going public just last month the crypto exchange also announcing a 1.25 convertible

note offering after the close. it has only risen six days since going public and the after-hours session is down 2 3/4 percent. what do you think that is all about, brian kelly how you could do this offering right after going public >> yeah, exactly and listen, they picked a terrible time, it appears, to go public in the bitcoin world because they went public right at almost the top of the recent top of bitcoin so they're got a double-whammy here this is the benefit to them of being a public company and the negative for shareholders like myself of having this happen so ultimately they're going to have a lot of cash to spend. i think the long-term story for coin base is still really quite positive as i think this story, the longer term story for bitcoin is quite positive but it is painful being a shareholder today. >> dan, you had a very salty expression, i'm not surprisingly when brian kelly was speaking.

>> what is wrong -- if you're a shareholder, this is like a zero coupon convert that converts up 55% from current levels. so to me, they went public through a direct listing, they didn't put any cash on their balance sheet, they already have a couple billion on their balance sheet and now they are raising more this is how the mechanisms should work. i think we saw it slack due to the same thing, and it works out well for them. so to me i think this makes perfect sense. >> well the chart master called the bitcoin break downback in april so let's take a listen >> one reference point is the january peak and you could see the line i've drawn there. look at the next chart another reference point is the 150-day moving average now, take a look at the next chart. it's those all put together. they all triangulate and come down to around the 40,000 plus

level. >> carter worth joins us now with an update on where bitcoin could be headed next carter, what do you see? >> well, you know, it's -- what do you say it is fascinating, frustrating and enticing let's try to figure it out together a couple of charts so the first chart, we know that it was sitting around 10,000, bitcoin, last summer and autumn and we went on this six fold increase up to the peak on april 14th of 64,000 and change. and then we broke trend. which you could see on that chart. second chart, if you do break trend, are there reference points well one is the prior peak and intermedia top and that would be that jan 8th top at around 42,000 now put those two charts together, next chart, and one reference point is this prior

high but the question about a prior high is it support one point in time, not particularly good support. so now look at the next chart. support is not a plywood board or a -- it is a mattress top we're down to support but you could sink into support. like a child jumping on the bed in the hotel room. so next chart. we're down 35% now were we to get to the bottom of support, we would be down 55%. and you could see that on the next chart the final chart, this is sort of all data going back to 2011, and the question is, we're down 35% now, could we draw down 55, of course we could. so put it in context there have been 11, you could count them, 30% plus declined in bitcoin going back to 2011 and the average decline of those

is about 56% some have been 80, 85%, others have been shallow at 30%, 35%, but they all average out around 55%. were we go down to 55%, we would be at the lower end of support i think we're in support and it is fighting but my hunch is it goes lower. >> carter, thank you carter braxton worth of cornerstone macro. carter does great charts he's in the pantheon or parthenon of great technical analysts, but tim when you see elon musk being the primary driver of bitcoin's trade over the past week, how does that make you feel knowing that carter said we're still in a support channel about this trade. >> well, i mean, it is with great irony that was supposed to be corporate adoption that was the driver for i think this leg of the bitcoin trade higher before this pullback was that if x percentage and it doesn't have

to be 1% of corporate treasury when all in on bitcoin in other words, a very small, small exposure anyway, the point is it tells you the momentum and the nature of what has been going on out there. but carter's point is a great one. brian kelly made this point throughout time. this is garden variety stuff in terms of the volatility of the asset class and with some of the institutional adaptation as it relates to the investor side i think you have a greater anchor under bitcoin here so i think it is going to bounce off the bottom end of this i don't see how we've changed the fundamentals. >> i had to wrap a minute august ago but i'm going back to brian kelly. he made it clear that tesla has not sold bitcoin when he responded vaguely, that they might have or might in the future if this is a positive to put bitcoin on the balance sheet, isn't this a negative equally to the down side?

>> i mean, obviously it has been because it is been the for -- >> or more so to the down side. >> -- i mean, he bought it at, what 20,000. that was the break out and so it triples from there now we're down 30%, maybe 20% or so on his comments listen, bitcoin needs to survive this elon musk it will survive elon musk and it needs to get past elon musk. it is bigger than any one individual it is not acting that way right now. but you also just have the natural market cases what i will tell you is the underlying fundamentals are starting to line up for a buy here in bitcoin. it is not a screaming buy yet. so when i look at the underlying fundamentals, i look at the address growth and what the address over the last 30 months, add dress growth is down about 3% but the market is pricing negative 15% address growth. that deferential is starting to

get into a vice. >> coming up, one option trader making a bet ahead of earnings on wednesday we'll tell you why when we come back t” by joe esposito] ♪ try to be best 'cause you're only a man ♪ ♪ and a man's gotta learn to take it ♪ ♪ try to believe though the going gets rough ♪ ♪ that you gotta hang tough to make it ♪ ♪ you're the best! around! ♪ ♪ nothing's gonna ever keep you down ♪ [triumphantly yells] ♪ you're the best! around! ♪ [ding] don't get mad. get e*trade and take charge of your finances today. ♪♪ i'm 53, but in my mind i'm still 35. that's why i take oste bi-flex to keep me moving the way i was made to, it nourishes and strengthens my joints for the long term. osteo bi-flex, plus vitamin d for immune support. ♪ ♪ (upbeat music) osteo bi-flex, plus vitamin d ♪ ♪

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crossing the options market before today's close let's get to tony to break down the action tony. >> so jd reports earnings this wednesday morning and there is a 6.8% move for earnings which is muted. that is the second smallest implied move for the past eight quarters and 15 minutes before the close, we saw a sidable 12,000 contracts of a synthetic stock trade across the tape. so this trader sold 12,000 contracts of the june 67.5 puts collecting about $2.92 for that and then spending $3.61 to pay for 12,000 contracts of the june 67.5 calls net-net here, paying about $96 for this particular trade and this strategy may be confusing or complex off the surface but it is the risk profile of being long 1.2 million shares of this

stock. notional value about 82 million. betting on a bounce for jd. >> thank you, tony for more "options action" tune in on frid aayt 5:30 up next, final trades. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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final trade, tim >> chevron >> b.k. >> freeport. >> dan. >> viacom cbs. >> guy >> new mont. >> thanks for watching fast. "mad money" starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, my job is to make you money. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. nasdaq losing .38% it was