tv The Exchange CNBC May 18, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
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i like it. state patient. >> i wonder if you're as irate as about dividend. >> all right pete i'm beginning to give you unity software it's cut in half it's starting to move to the upside it's ready to break out. >> give me quick >> charter mun kagsbrougt down by the rest of this at&t deal by now. >> thanks for watch. the exchange starts now. the ceo of macy's joins us to talk their massive quarter and where they are investing plus why isn't the stock reacting better given how massive this beat was.
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fidelity wants to give teenagers access to no fee brokerage account. bonds may be coming to amazon hedge funds are loaded down with spacs. i should have seen you almost could have been like a domino's pizza. >> i could have been if it was dom. i don't know what else it could have been. i'm checking tickers now because it's all i can do on a day that's very much about consolidation. not much happening from macro perspective. we'll start with the top level look from the funnel down. look at the dow industrials up about 56 points.
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two key parts to keep an eye on that have been losing a bit of momentum as the afternoon has gotten started here. look at the retail trade walmart, home depot macy's come out with great earnings, by the way. we have a bit of that luster has come off we were much higher so far today. one other part of the market to watch. the reopening trade. think about airlines think about hotels think about cruise lines and restaurants out. this part of the market is still holding onto some gains today. united airlines, royal caribbean, marriott and darden indicative of that reopening
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trade. watch those retail names and the reopening trade. back to you. >> thank you very much rotation from e-commerce plays have been well under way for months now is it a little premature to sell the pandemic names entirely. walmart has continued to thrive even as consumers return to physical stores. my next guest says there's way to play this bridge. nancy, it's great the see you. >> it's fabulous the see you in studio >> it's good to be here after a couple of false starts let's talk about your -- i think amazon is one of your favorite names right now. this whole theme is one of your favorites. explain a bit where you see the opportunity. >> you've heard this add nauseam but it's not yjust the transfer
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payments but it's the plans sheet. that's been happening over the last 10, 15 years. asset prices are up. housing as well. we think the spending boom continues and we may see a slight shift from goods to services but goods are not going away amazon is a stock that sort of straddles e-commerce and some physical shop ping you saw today from walmart what being in both spaces can do. e-commerce continues the thrive there as well. we like both these names pu we have been adding to amazon it's done nothing for almost a year since late summer and this is a stock on valuation basis that is compelling they borrowed a lot of money at low rates and raise t expectations for free cash flow. >> quick question, what would you think as a shareholder about their possibility investment in
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mgm especially the price they are rumored to be paying which is pretty steep. >> well, yes, it is steep fwhu is a company with a ton of cash. i think they would rather buy mgm than pay a dividend. they needed to make a big acquisition. it would lower the cost of content for them and i find it super intriguing especially in light of the at&t discovery deal i think they are on the right track. this is what jeff bezos freed himself up to do you one of my big worries about the market is potential policy
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mistakes we may see out of d.c that's not just dividend or income taxes going up that will raise the tax on dividends but capital gains taxes going up dpl that being the case, why would you want amazon to pay a dividend >> i'm sorry i misunderstood you. many investors live off the income on their portfolios think of apple and there was a time in 2013, 14 when they were yieldsing above the 10-year -- range. for retail investors, if there's enough cash flow are better and more sustainable than share bue front. >> it's kind of catalyst for gains if they were to go in that direction. maybe we can see that coming out of the at&t trade today. the idea that might be shrunken
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bit. apple is not name you would be picking up on what some would say it's another opportunity where it hasn't done much lately >> it has not. we were buying the stock at much lower p/e level, much lower sales to levels. we have been net serls for the last 18 months we sold about 60% of our holdings we still own a significant amount in our portfolios it's about a 3% waiting across the board. it was 5, 6 and would have gone to 10 if we had not trimmed it we think much of that story has played out we get the whole super cycle and services those things were not priced in. we're shifting bit to some news
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software names which i can't talk about because we just purchased them this morning. >> we'll give it a few days and then we'll ask let pe circle back do what we started at the beginning this idea of the companies that is bring the physical and the digital shopping experience for the post pandemic consumer are there any other plays in that space other than amazon that you would recommend here. >> we like starbucks and chipotle on the restaurant side. mcdonald's began show like we own all three and they are pretty major holdings. pretty significantly overweight. consumer discretionary i think home depot has done a good job another name we own. it didn't get much of a response today but stock is up materially it's still attractive and the housing trade is not over. they have done good job with digital as have starbucks as i mentioned, chipotle and mcdonald's we like all of those names in the consumer discretionary space. >> to think that home depot a
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might not be done yet after some of the gapesins it's made. thank you. >> thank you speaking of walmart, we had a slew of retail earnings over the past 24 hours with walmart, home depot and macy's all crushing estimates the shares are kind of moving sideways walmart is positive by about 2.5% macy's down half a percent suggesting a lot of the good news has been priced in. macy's still reported a huge jump in sales. courtney is here with more on that and a special guest >> macy's is selling a lot hohome goods. one of the most improved categories, luggage, apparel improved 8 percentage points from last quarter. dresses like special occasion
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for prom and casual dresses improved along with dressy sandals to go with dresses the department store sold more at full price and had fewer markdowns which did help margins. delivery expenses did increase i am going to bring in macy's chairman and ceo to talk to us more on these trends and everything else that's going on. kelly started us off by talking about macy's chshare. you have to be careful in looking at the comparisons because of what happened during first quarter last year with store closures you gave us a lot of cam pairsons when you look at that, sales are still down 10% you think that's what's holding down the stock and wa cahat can do to give us a positive number.
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>> good to see you our brand has got momentum what i would look at is what happens many the fourth quarter of 2020 and what happened many the first quarter. it's really in the categories you talked about, it's we definitely saw a big change with the vaccinations in those categories where customers are starting to reemerge they are going to church, out to dinner and the prom. people love their mothers. we expect it to be a strong father's day a strong back to school. we think lit be gang busters holiday with people getting back together with family members
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they may not have been with in the past 16 months we think it will be a great gift giving time frame for the balance of this year >> you acknowledged the stimulus checks definitely helped you sell certain times of year but it sounds like you're really positive going forward through the balance of the year for these different activities through the holiday season what makes you really believe that the consumers pent up demand will be longer lived than a quarter or two >> when you look at the consumer, they are healthy when you look at what we have just gone through as a nation. just being able to remerge and getting back to some level of normal activity. that suits up with our category well i just think it will be great buying for the future. when you look at the macy's and bloomingdale's brand, we don't think that international tourism is coming back in 2021
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we think that will be good news that comes to us in '22 and beyond there's lot of reasons why we raise guidance today is because of what we saw in the consumer stimulus is kind of worn off this pandemic and vavaccination those buying patterns are emerging this whole work opportunity hasn't gotten started yet. i think about macy's is it's not quite as cheap as a target and walmart which had really good fashion but it's not as expensive as some of the higher end stores does inflationary environment allow to to increase profit margins or those are under pressure because you can't raise prices >> i think it's more of the former
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regular price averaging retail is up about 9% we can get the make of our goods and put more details in them as a result, customers are willing to pay higher retails for those. we have seen that across all of our categories there's not a category that doesn't have lhigher average or retail we have great tasty fashion. the customers are responding and we're dealing with all of our old age product much faster than ever before. >> jeff, it's courtney again dwr you talked about the different formats that are smaller that you're working on through the pilot stages is that the future of macy's will all macy's brands end up being this smaller format?
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>> i think we're a digitally led retailer you see through the pandemic we made a hard pivot to part of the business were we already strong and sizable, which is our digital business we believe that macy's and bloomingdale's can get to 10 billion dollar by 2023 we know that's fortified with omni channel customers this notion that customers are healthiest when they are shopping between brick and mortar and digital a will the of our customers don't find malls convenient. they happen to be in areas where it's not convenient to go to a mall store we're looking al those locations. we're playing in three different cities as a test and planting small door format as well in full price and off price you can do returns, purchases, pick ups of anything in the macy's and bloomingdale's
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ecosystem. the customer lifetime value that are in the trade areas that's what we're experimenting now. we have a lot more coming between bloomingdale's and macy's we'll have something to talk about with everybody in 2020 >> that's call add deep tease. it's been a while since i've shopped for any fashion goods myself thanks >> thank you >> you've been living at carter's i guess. >> you know it >> thanks to jeff for joining us for that interview another mayor retailer is set to report earnings. target ceo will be on squawk box tomorrow morning coming up, it's been a wild 24 hours for discovery shares. the stock shooting up 17% but
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. welcome back doubts about the warner media discovery deal and the ink isn't dry yet. discovery closed down 5% at&t finished the day down 3% and those are declines we see today as well. what are investors concerned about? joining me is a big discovery shareholder. joining me is bill smeed he owns a million and a half shares of discovery which is up 27% this year. it's a bill smead world and we're all living in. let me ask you this, why not take this deal as a great opportunity to lock in your gains and sell >> well, we had bill wong there to lock in our gains we sold a lot during the first
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quarter. average prices way above where we are now then when it got crushed, we started buying it back because what happens with these short squeeze stocks is they get a scarlet letter on their sweater and no one wants to touch them the truth of it is, the major tech players that want to be major streaming players have one big problem. they is that content is scarce after you watched "the office" and "friends," what are you going to do? here comes a true genius of human, artistic ingenuity and says, hey, i'll just dominant con tent and you can come and call me later. >> your reference was to the arcagos blow up. you were buying on that weakness turning back to the issue of content.
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your thesis is this combined company becomes a more attractive target to one of the big tech players, right in. >> right you're putting "90 day fiancee" and hgt and the things that came from merging scripps and disc discovery. this is fantastic. it means my 35-year-old son and i are on the same page >> i have to say that the discovery scripps deal which was a worry point for investors has kie kind of born out this deal you need scales and saassets that a kind of symbiotic with each other.
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>> the largest owner of discovery was newhouse and john malone this deal wouldn't go through if these two extremely successful long term investors didn't want it to go through therefore, they are endorsing it and john malone is the cable cowboy billionaire and he doesn't like to pay taxes and he doesn't mind leverage. if he doesn't mind it and newhouse doesn't mind it, we don't mind it. what would you say to investors who are trying to figure out which horse they want to bet on now as this consolidation is clearly under way?
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we also have owners of comcast and it's been a very successful investment over long period of time i would guess that once the confusion blows over that people will stop worrying about them like they did yesterday. we're more concerned about our disney shares that had this inflated earnings ratio and earnings will be a lot better in couple of years. we're more worried that's been priced in. is the fundamental case change because winning and streaming is kind of different than simply adding on cable boxes to new households you still now have to get people to sign up it's easier than ever. churn could be quite high as
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they move from one program to the next i'm just curious if that's as attractive to you in the new economics as it was in the old economics of the cable model >> i think they are finding they can make a little bit more money per customer in streaming. they have europe and by the way, taking the warner sassets to europe and the sports to europe, many of the most successful nba players came from europe it's a treasure-trove of content and if you've got great content and you've got gate artistic ingenuity, you'll find a home where as the artificial in intelligence tells you what people have been watching and throw spaghetti up at the wall which is what they do at netflix and amazon in hopes to find one out of every ten things that work, i don't think it's as profitable in the long run i
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don't think it will be as successful >> i still get annoyed when i have to type into youtube to watch a video that i've been watching 37 days in a row. i'm sure they will solve that problem. thank you for joining us >> thank you coming up, hedge funds loaded up on spacs in first quartzer we'll take a closer look at who bought what and why. the crypto boom helping this stock to a 40% gain this year. the company has nothing to do with crypto. the story behi t sges ead.ndheur i
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...and even her grandpa's dog tags back. get a quote. the s&p is about flat. the nasdaq is finally positive it's still coming off a four-week losing streak today. it's up 77 points. over to tyler mathison for a cnbc update. >> here is what's happening at this hour. house republican leader kevin mccarthy says he will oppose the formation of an independent bipartisan committee to tud di the deadly capitol hill insurrection mccarthy wants the proposed panel to examine groups involved in black lives matter protests three top house lawmakers are calling for a federal inkwi inqui
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inquiry. they want the fdc to investigate whether they slowed the development of cheaper drugs by competitors. vaccination rates are lower in rural counties than in urban areas. cdc researchers looked at data through mid-april and found a 7 percentage point difference many number of people who have gotten one shot experts say the gap is concerning because covid cases and deaths are higher in rural counties from the southeast through texas, about 30 million people are under flood warnings one person is reported dead and another is missing near baton rouge, louisiana kelly, back to you coming up, watch out ro robinhood, fidelity is going after the teen trading market. offering them no fee trading accounts yo we're back in a moment
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it allows teens age 13 to 17 to buy stocks, funds and etfs teen's parent must be a fidelity account holder how will fidelity new accounts help resolve this problem or will it exacerbate it? david is one of brains behind the new teens account. he is fidelity chief marketing officer. what makes this app different from robinhood >> this is pretty different than robinhood. we have been working on this long before the recent up tick this is about lifetime relationships with our customers. it's customers of fidelity that they want the teach responsible behavior to. >> if they want to load up on lord's town motor, does the parent get chance to deny that
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trade? >> the point is that the parent sets it up teen actually does own the account and that is you unique we ditd a pilot. it led to exactly what we're hoping for conversations between parents and their children people weren't trading very often. the parent can monitor the spending that's done with the debit card there's no fees and no min pulmomum in it's a hybrid between a checking account and trading account which is kind of cool and i can see it being useful for a lot of people but regulatory, does it put it in gray area how does that work >> it's a cash management account and you it be the a brokerage.
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you can use the atm. there's no fee and no minimum. you can use it instead of traditional checking account >> are there any parental controls over this account or the parent has to give their con sent >> the parent gives their consent. the parent can monitor everything that goes on. parents were over seeing what was going on in the account. they are having real conversations with their teenagers about whether or not the behavior is responsible and if something were to go off the rail, the parent can decide whether there account is appropriate for their teenager we didn't see that in the pilot but sit a possibility. >> we heard instances of robinhood where people misunderstand the app especially with the options trade with kind of deadly and sad effects. i'm imagine what you're doing here is allowing people to trade stocks but not necessarily to do some of the more sophisticated
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slicing and dicing what happens be there's more capital in the accounts than parents realize or the losses accumulate or something to that effect >>. >> caller: that's exactly right. there's no options and there's no margin. that's very, very important. there's a maximum how much can be put in the account which is $30,000 per year that's the guidelines for giving for a married couple there's a lot of -- by the way, a lot of the accounts are much smaller than that. about 44% of the money is going into the account from the tarmg. it's much smaller stakes there's guardrails in there that you're doing normal market orders >> last question, generally speaking what kind of stocks and for how long were people buying and holding? what kind of patterns and trends have you picked up on in this period of time >> that's why we wanted pilot
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this not every one is trading at all which is fine. they can use this to save and spend. we saw them trading infrequently once or twice a month was the average. they are trading s&p 500 names they are trading apple and tesla and things that the teenager, they know the brands some cases they use the brand. in it's fascinating. great detail thanks for joining us to explain it we really preeshlt it. >> thanks for having me. amazon's latest entertainment grab and goldman says take a dip. all that is coming up after this short break. at t-mobile, we're committed to serving those who serve. as a nationally recognized military friendly employer,
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can help you build a complete financial plan. visit letsmakeaplan.org to find your cfp® professional. ♪♪ what happens when we welcome change? vwe can transform ourrg to fiworkforce overnightsional. out of convenience, or necessity. we can explore uncharted waters, and not only make new discoveries, but get there faster, with better outcomes. with app, cloud and anywhere workspace solutions, vmware helps companies navigate change-- meeting them where they are, and getting them where they want to be. faster. vmware. welcome change. welcome back let's catch you up the date on a couple of stories that should be on your radar. it's time for rapid fire
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i haven't seen your face in so long did you shave for this >> i did shave for you i wanted to look respectable nice to be here without a mask >> you never know what's going on under the masks >> this is true. i had to make sure i didn't eat anything sloppy for lunch. i had to floss i did the whole thing. >> it's great to have you here julia joins us as well now amazon is in talks to acquire mgm. this is the studio behind james bond and tv shows like the voice. their content library has more than 4,000 movies. the observation is, amazon could really be paying up for this asset. the prices i've seen floating around somewhere between 8 and $9 billion it's like 30 times trailing. >> my sources says the talks happening but it's still unclear if the deal will happen and how
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much amazon would pay for these mgm assets the appeal of mgm now is the number of independent studios left is dwindling and mgm does have these big name franchises that control 50% of the james bond franchise it does have the library with 4,000 films. there's this land grab with all the streamers wanting to secure as much content as possible for their services as the mergers happen >> this is a bankers paradise. all of these deals under way in the sector >> yes it is. what's interesting, i think about this now is that you look back to amazon's history, build versus buy they have built up their movie studios from scratch and their tv studio from scratch i just wanted to pull a quote from digital center that says how do you become a millionaire
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in hollywood in the answer is you start out as a billionaire. they have been successful with that i think julia brings up a good point on why you would want to buy now when you already have such momentum behind you the answer is that huge catalog of content it's helpful as one of streaming providers to have it all there for the consumers. a lot easier to buy it >> steve, we see this happen in different industries where as soon as the big acquisition happens, everybody educational scrambles because they need skill quickly. the consolidation is happening we end up with four major players and everybody wants to be involved. the stock has gone nowhere for a year do you like this deal and do you like this stock? >> first of all, there's tremendous head winds for a name like amazon and none of them have anything to do with amazon. it's about growth versus value
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we had volatility in the large cap tech space people are rolling into cyclicals. it's nothing to do with streaming. having said that, you have a number of players. when you think about streaming, what do you think about? you think about netflix, disney and amazon and then the rest of the pool i bought recently viacom because i think they will all get bit up for their assets and the sell off that we have seen as late, nothing to do with fundamentals. stock was hit. yes, i agree with you there's going to be handle of players but i think the macro head winds for large cap tech are too much right now but if you want to gobble up some streaming, have at it. >> when we spoke to bill smead, he says he thinks the roll up will probably be acquired by one of the big tech players. again, you see why, a lot of
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people think, major consolidation is happening i can bet that higher price will be paid for some these saasset. >> yes, it will be many years before the warn e warner media discovery companies. there's still a regulatory process that needs to happen over the next year what i would say back to leslie's point about the idea of build versus buy when it comes to getting a library, 4,000 films, 17,000 hours of television, you can't just build that overnight. that's the kind of thing you have to buy. i think that's exactly why amazon is in a poosition where i would want the buy something like this because some things aren't buildable >> how old is mgm. a decade it has the seem like who cares in the grand scheme of things. let's talk about some of what's
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been going on in the investment world between hedge funds and spacs. spacs had a really difficult start to the year. they have been in the red under performing for the most part even after being red hot an analysis found the median performance of spac's the year has trailed the s&p by 15 percentage points. our cbnbc deal is trailing to date what's going on with the hedge fund buying activity >> kwwhat's interesting is as o march 31st, what also happened on march 31st is you saw two statements from the sec throwing bit of cold water on the spac phenomenon and that was the beginning of the end of the frenzy that's when you started to see
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the dramatic underperformance. it's interesting the see the big names get into the spacs it's unclear whether they are still invested but i would note there were a couple of things we picked up from types of spacs they were invested in. i would say the big inverss were really drawn to other big investors. another big investor, to investors slash gary is a banker you didn't see them really dabbling in a lot of the celebrity driven spacs it was these kind of -- what they we arperceived to be high quality. >> you're own way of looking at spacs is buy companies with what you think are good management teams. you are also picking through the rub rubble here, right in.
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>> sure. we saw apple added to that one a handle of other funds increasing their stake. that one is definitely baby out with the bath water. the company is a light it's a cloud human resource. you nailed it kicking off the segment. buy the management team. it's artificial intelligence battery storage. it's in the tweesweet spot of everything going on now. >> i think buying good management teams is something berkshire would say that's all they do. they say over and over throughout the years it's been much more important to buy good management teams than to overly focus on the price maybe the spac world is playing
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that out again let's talk about goldman saying the market suspect over if pools. anticipating growth and revenue margins in returns gives it a $535 price target. it's at 429. it's on the upside they are talking 12% growth across the u.s. this year. it's interesting because you think a lot of this is already priced in but julia, they are also talk about the shifting population to the hotter south and west as being part of their secular growth story here. >> i was surprised as well i would have thought people would have been investing in building pools during the pandemic that year, this past year they were stuck at home and now they would be thinking about getting out of their house not being hunkered down at home and spending the same money on trips. it speaks to people living city, moving out to the suburbs, having bought new houses in the past year and thinking about this will be where they live rather than in a high-rise
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>> steve, i have friends who live in charleston, south carolina and say you cannot survive the summer if you don't have a pool. you can't. >> the other footnote to that is even though they should have done this to julia's, point, they should have done have doneh pandemic, you couldn't get anyone out to your house to do anything so this is a tail wind from the pandemic, but when you think about the ancillary stuff, the pool furniture, and there's a chlorine shortage right now, kelly. >> do you have a pool? >> i do have a pool. i have a saltwater pool, but you still use some chlorine. think about the diversified chemical names caught up in the sweet poll of the cyclical play. i own oln, olin, so think about the domino effects of what you can play off of the pool surge,
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if you will. >> i love it, i love it. finally an unexpect ed beneficiary of cryptochange, ethan alen investors are confusing its ticker name with ethereum. [ laughter ] >> people will be very disappointed when they realize they are actually buying the most hard asset of assets, which is furniture you know, this is becoming a recurring problem. remember when elon musk tweeted buy signal, advance -- and it was advanced like 500% in one day? why are they not more safeguards, or are there safeguards, r people who are just mistakenly buying these ticker symbols it seems like it's mapping in a
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much more frequent occurrence over the last year part of it has to do with a tremendous interest from retail investors, how are people not realizing this and really affecting the -- >> i can't believe i'm about to say this do we even need the ticker symbols? >> i absolutely love them. as essential to modern finance as they were when they were first created? >> i don't think so. i think you're on to something there. in the leadoff to the spot, you showed the zoom chart. that was another one they did it with start accepting bitcoin, there you go >> julia, the last word. >> i think it's also worth noting that ethan allen did grow revenue in the -- but this is a company that sold more furniture, in part because, as we discussed with the pool people, for they're stuck at
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welcome back house gop lawmakers are holding their first tax camp today our ylan mui is physically literally outside in the fresh air at capitol hill. hi, ylan. >> reporter: tax camp will get started in about an hour it's a closed-door session geared for new members who may not have been around in 2017 congressman kevin grady says he wants these lawmakers prepared to defend tax reform there's more growth to be had. these members are going to shape that.
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>> they'll be handling those talks. the gop has held forum for new taxes to pay for the plan, but perhaps there could be an opening around the tax gap, just getting people to pay what they already owe. >> i like calling any brainstorming session camp it makes it sound that much more fun. that does it for "the exchange today." next, banks are still some of the cheapest in the market wells fargo's mike mayock will bring us his picks ♪ ♪
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