tv The Exchange CNBC May 21, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
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world. they will be the largest producer next year >> buy coinbase here and selling the 270 calls. collecting $20 >> nice. >> rob, just a name. >> rcd equal weight consumer discretionary etf. >> good weekend, everybody all of you watching as well. "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. here is what's ahead this hour >> the pandemic productivity boom the country is doing more with fewer wokkers than ever before we'll look at what that means for job, inflation and fed the housing market is super red hot. we're speak with coldwell banker parent about the trend they are seeing and a 20% price cut
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target for tesla another change to the dow and the white house swipes right to get people vaccinated. that's all come up on rapid fire we start with the markets. >> we are trying to snap a four-week losing streak for the nasdaq and we look poised to do it earlier in the morning. now we kind of cooled off a bit. the dow sdriindustrials up abou2 points the zz s&p 500 drifting into negative territory the nasdaq now under performing. slipping negative. remember the nasdaq trying to snap that four-week losing streak we'll see if the modest losses stay that way. we can keep that streak. some of technology stocks have seen a bid as some investors step in to buy the discount prices we have seen over the last several days. chip makers like nvidia up 5.5%
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this week. salesforce.com up 3% over the last week. some of the megacap names. those stocks with $100 billion in market value. that's what's been on the shopping list. another one to watch nothing runs like a dear over the last year or so. it's been up about 152% in last 12 months. it's up about 1.5% today off its session highs. it's roughly 10% below where it was at the record. deere, one of the world's biggest makers of farm equipment, of construction equipment. it's been seen as a recovery play on the global economy since the depths of the pandemic a year ago this company comes out with better than expected earnings. back over to you >> even as it tries to be a tech company. thank you. 8.2 million, that's how many fewer workers our economy has following the pandemic
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you'd expect that to slow things down yet productivity is booming. steve is here with more about that >> it's an astonishing fact the pandemic output is now topped the level from before the pandemic but with 8.2 million to be precise it's a result of booming productivity that several economists will outlast the pandemic that's good news for workers and corporate profit the sources of the productivity boom, you heard them more e-commerce will stick around work from home will stick around doing more with fewer workers. better business processes and some creative destruction. productivity normally booms after recessions unproductive business close and the least efficient workers are let go it comes back down to earth. the difference this time, new technological advances and the ways of doing things like virtual real estate. they're not seen going anywhere.
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much of the covid induce shift to work from home will stick long after the pandemic ends they will supply about 20% of full workdays from home four times the pre-covid level. positive impacts from the stock market too. it's harder to put workers back to work. work from home goldman sach's mobilize part of the household home office for business purposes, much like what uber and air bnb did for cars and
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second homes a lot of these technologies were around before the pandemic but the crisis has shown that necessity is the mother in this case, kelly, of adoption >> it's fascinating. stay right there we'll speak more about this with david. dave, welcome. i guess before i kind of get into the big picture, i want to make sure our viewers have a sense of where these arguments are pointing in terms of market impact all of this is paving the way for what kind of stock market and bond market for the time being, do you think. >> i think steve i aslum -- alluded to a lot of this it's bigger high to share. how that gets split up is debatable. what we prove between q1 of 2020
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and q1 of 2022 is we can produce at or more gdp with average about 8.5 million. it's an astounding fact. it's got a good side and a bad side the good side is we're really productive and adapted to this world where we went to less labor intensive businesses the other part is, well, what are we going to do with fact we got a pretty serious unemployment problem still in a lot of the jobs may not come back >> here is what i find very interesting to ask both of you we are about to see this all slow down and change, aren't we? a portion of this will last. the rest of the part that we're getting productivity gains is from closed out parts of the economy that the public doesn't want closed down they want to go to restaurants, stores, the summer carnival. they want to go on cruise ships. all of these things that weren't
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operating this the pandemic are about to come back online in big way. isn't that going to increase the labor force slow productivity and reverse some of what you're talk about >> it may. you have to juxtapose to what businesses adapted to an online business pmodel are going to do going forward. there's going to be a few million jobs added back. those will be less productive because they are more labor intensive jobs that caused us to an nimate in e
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less interactive ways all of these businesses i think that's much more hear to say than maybe people are thinking in the future it portends a very different out look for how a number of businesses outside of leisure and hospitality whether it's any form of good production as well. it means more of a online or virtual or a less labor -- >> less in the real world. >> we're not going to enter the dark ages here. we'll remember the things we learn frd the pandemic because they are profitable and efficient and we live better
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with them. if you can do the job without the commute, you'll do the job without the commute. if part of the job involves some commute, that's fine too the amazing thing, kelly, is we don't need a lot of extra productivity to live a whole lot better remember, productivity moves along at 1.5%. >> dave, before we have to go, i want do ask you about something else that underpins all of this. it's inflation it's striking to read your notes at a time when most people out there many the world are screaming about hyper inflation
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and sell your bonds and short your bonds. >> i'm not happy to buy. i don't think they offer up a lot of value we have been telling our clients since the beginning of the year and we vacated some of our strategies of last year. we have the highest in nearly 40 years and the bond market can't sell off the highest core monthly in 40 since september 1981 and the bond market is stuck >> is that because of fed? >> hey, kelly. >> go ahead, steve >> no. i was going to say very quickly that kelly can you imagine the real disinflationary forces in the u.s. and the global economy
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that we can't move to bond market with massive fiscal spending and massive fed easing out there. >> i think the inflation is pushing the economy. people say t cheaper to build with steel than lumber now i think more importantly than all that is the market is not really buying into some hyper inflationary story there's a lot of guys that love to come on and talk about it and they preach the end of fed and want to tell us why the fed does such a terrible job when the unconventional monetary policies are the reason we got out of the last two recessions.
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people aren't putting their money where their mouth is they're scared they have been beaten up the big inflation bets that have taken place going back to the '90s have all been losers. >> all right >> some people have been gun shy. i want to take bond yields up to 2.5. i want to have lot of rate likes and i want to go back to my standard trades. >> steve, i'll give you the quick last word on all of this >> i think david has it right. the idea and fby the way, it's not inflationary if inflation slows the commeconomy because ps would fall the real danger is some form of stagflation. i think this productivity boom
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is manager -- something to watch. some folk will not be winners. there's equipment to be sold but also some equipment, some industries are not going to end up on the plus side. >> fascinating coming up, you know the brands they are all big players and they are all bowned by one company. the ceo joins us live with his take on the super hot housing market where people are buying, offering cash to home sellers and rising rates actor and financial author hill harper is hitting the road hoping to get blacks and latinos into crypto. all this as bitcoin is trading
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for a third straight month for every listing, there were five offers and half of the homes sold above list price. real estate frenzy overwhelm small town america i came home crying that referred to one bidder who lost out on a house. what are you seeing on the ground sdp thaupg for having me . >> we're seeing more transactions and as a company, we're seeing market share gains over the last nine months some of our technology and leading luxury market positioning.
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>> sales of home in the upper to nearly a million to over a million price range are up like double from this time last year. why? >> first off, we are the leading luxury play r. we're the number one million dollar plus home sell companies. there's a couple of things that are happening. one is for all the talk about supply constraints, we have a lot of inventory the ability to do remote and some of the people moving to some of the more attractive weather destinations many of the things driving consumer demand have a little bit more luxury than the over all market which benefits us as a company and gets to some of the luxury stats that diana
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mentioned. >> that makes so much senses you break that down. where do we go from here if we think back to the housing bubble of the early 2000s, that was psychological. people thought home prices never go down in is a great way the make money i'm going to flip homes. underwriting was very loose and it all worked until it didn't. what's driving this boom seems different. it doesn't feel like it's driven by house slipping. the investor of house sharing ents up with to 17%. are we getting to that troubling der t territory in terms of psy psychology >> i don't think it's literally consumer demand not only do you have rotations of geography but you really have
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the millennial generation hitting their prime housing time and you have historically low interest rates which are helping people dramatically to lock in 30 year kind of rates at historic lows. there's a really strong combination of consumer demand where people are buying because that's where they want to live they're not bieuying it for the flipping of 10 or 15 years ago we're seeing just really strong durable demand continuing now for almost a year and i'm very excited that hopefully as or country moves down the vaccination path, that may unlock some more supply and bring more houses onto the market as people make the choices and maybe feel a little better about doing so. >> interesting to your point, all cash buying are up if people are willing to lay out cash, this is not the same kind of mania here is my last question
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it's arbitrage question. let's say i want to quote, unquote play what's going on in the market there's people in my area who could sell their home for a great price right now but they don't know where to go what's the best way to ashrbitre this market? >> the reality is, nobody will sell their house just to move to a house down the street. the price of a house down the street is up too the reality is it's literally about how you want to live your life if you got the remote work option and you want to live in austin, texas or miami instead of new york city or san francisco, that option is there for you to monetize the high demand in northern new jersey and take advantage of a different place you want to live i don't think we're in an opportunity where it's about arbitrage or making money on houses like it was in 2006 i really think we're in a bit of a social reshuffling or
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restructuring that remote work, the millennial generation, low rates all going to and so, i like what that means for the health of the housing market and the health of the people buying houses in terms of their economics as opposed to people who 50 years ago >> i think you're spot on about the social structure this new way of interacting will be interesting thank you for your time. >> we really appreciate it thank you for giving us a chance to share our thoughts. coming up, one of the stocks benefitting from the rotation out of tech this year is this one that's up more than 100% in the past 52 weeks. it's not the only one of its kind we'll have a closer look at names and the sector gaining team you can watch us live any time
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cruise lines are getting ready to set sail to alaska, carnival. princess and holland american lines will resume cruising in july passengers have to prove they are fully vaccinated before the cruise sets sail shares of carnival were up at the open but pretty much flat on the day. the washington has reopened and through a new panda to see the zoo is operating at 20%. not all attractions are open fully vaccinated guests do not need to wear a mask and the sue is using the honor system like a lot of places. a look at the latest reopenings and the reliance on people keeping their word on become vaccinated i've ditched my mask i'm fully vaccinated i get dirty looks. it's a very tricky time. it's a very tricky time. when you don't have to wear the mask >> it's very tricky. >> the whole thing makes me anxious to have it on. it makes me anxious to have it off. it's the times we're living in
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i like the sweater we'll see you later. >> thank you let's get a check of the market the dow was up we're well off that. take a look at shares of amc look at the intraday here sliding to session lows. the company largest second share hole has sold its second stake vf corp. is down 7% on earnings. data dog higher today. talk about its growing customer base and ability to sell new
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products to existing new customers. always a winning combo if you want more on e on that call, go to cnbc.com/pro caterpillar is up about 2% shares are out performing the tech etfxlk. >> amid the volatility and high growth stocks in the tech sector, we have been skii seeina rotation into the more cyclical flames the sector has gained more than 10% while those with more growth exposure like tech are basically flat some of the stand outs including u.p.s., tech and snap on among the top performers in recent months all up around 30%. kansas city southern is up almost 40% in three months that canadian national and pacific.
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names are trading at e ing -- a closer to 25 the industrial sector is trading just ahead of the tech sector in f terms of forward earnings. it's the valuation concerns and stalled infrastructure talks that's led to some of these names to come off their highs in recent days and weeks. >> all right thank you. coming up, tesla's major loss who could be the next blue chip? it's all coming up in rapid fire first, it's friday that means it's time to look ahead for what's in store for your money next week here is your "friday fast forward. >> it's the last week of may and retail earnings are heating up we'll get results from the like of nordstrom, capri holding, best buy, costco and ulta. video results are on deck.
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the name down 9% over the last month as the chip shortage kopts. lordstown motors rescheduled its release from last week all eyes will be on their electric truck numbers fed powell will testify in front of the senate banking committee on tuesday big bank ceos will appear in frop front of the senate and the house on thursday. facebook, paypal and exxon mobile all hold shareholder meetings we'll get a slew of economic data new home sells and durable goods for the month of april that's your "friday fast forward. machin
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wood, tim seymour and morgan brennan. let's start with the crypto collapse as more regulators impose more regulations. bitcoin is down nearly 20% d deutsche thinks it's on the verge of going from trendy to tacky. i would think it's a benefit it's gone mainstream but to some extent, i don't know that supportive of price long term. what do you make of these moves this week? >> i thought you were asking me that question first as someone that make has gone from trendy to tacky itself. i think you have a case here where trendy to tacky may be
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from underestimated to maybe an over crowded trade if you listen to bank of america's fund manager urvey, which i do and i think picks up on waitings and dynamics and where trades get over done, i think that's clear i think the concept of 1% of corporate treasury going to bitcoin that came up over the summer is kind of absurd the move away from retail to institutional but locking that retail folk who is have been the largest part of the trade, that could have significant ramify kags we saw what happened with a little bit of margin can go a long way >> do you mean ramify ications good or bad? >> i do. i think we see where folks have become very over baextended and ei think that's hit the market too. bitcoin is here to stay. it's a question of how people
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are adopting and integrating >> he said the same thing earlier, i think yesterday morning he said crypto is an asset class and it's here to stay once all the pension funds and insurance companies are in it, that's the metapmorphasis. >> it's not going to manage over night. that's not going to happen i think a couple of things are happening. it's moving markets outside its own katscot indicate category. you're starting to see it creep into threatening financial institutions the original goal was to be a
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decentralized currency cut out banking. this is the kind of crack down from what a lot of crypto fans think of as traditional finance that was inevitable and i wouldn't sleep on concerns about the environmental impact i think that complaint is only growing. mr. there's a brilliant story that outlines some of these could power plants that are being bought by investors and converted to net gas they are using this massive wattage. we are talking about humongous mobilization of resources here and for regulators especially in china just the simple concern is they don't want capital out of their countricountries.
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>> i think that's a big part of it are you surprised or upset that china would be cracking down i think that probably bolsters your argument for the strength and long term value and it is decentralized in nature. that being said, i spoke to michael sailor from microstrategy. >> that was a great interview. >> i was on squawk in the street, it's a business intelligence software company but they have been amassing billions of dollars in bitcoin they hold in their treasury. that has significant realized gains. i talk to him about this he said volatility is the price you pay for bitcoin to be ten times out performing the s&p index over the past decade he sees synergies in terms of bitcoin on his books and the software business they have seen their best two back to back quarters in the software
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business in more than a decade that's the bull case out there now. you have a country like china cracking down that it does still debate it. >> right you watch corporate america. you watch institutional investors and doesn't seem like they are backing away anything like that. tesla a bit of a different story, which we'll get to this morning. let's talk about this nvidia stock split. it's a 4 for 1 split this could be paving the way for nvidia to enter the douw. it would be about 150 a share.
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>> nvidia's role, it's a leading technology company i'll save it for another segment the absurdity of a price weighted index because it makes no sense >> but i works >> well, maybe maybe. cmr salesforce going in august 31st to replace exxon. they need to get more relevant software technology in s a very low waiting many the stock i think it's 9 or 10%. microsoft is the biggest weight. nvidia makes a ton of sense. >> it would have a much bigger
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impact quick additional thought on this >> i mean, i don't know that it necessarily has to be that walgreens has a 47 billion dollar market cap. you're seeing that too you're seeing that to just in terms of where companies are choosing to list their shares. >> that's been may favorite story this week with deere >> yes, absolutely >> it's true at the same time everything -- good for the nasdaq. let's turn now to tesla. the shares are down 30% during all time high back in january.
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172 billion dollar mark cap loss on the shoulders >> yeah, i mean, the story of when even elon musk said, i believe more than one time, that tesla stock is over valued you get to that about a price weighted index tesla as usual, so many things about tesla show you that two things can be true at once or elon musk it is a successful car company that is super over priced i feel like this is sort of -- it was inevitable. despite having they would have self-driving cars by the end of the year, the engineering reality is nowhere near that
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>> you have tesla down 30%, i think you mentioned energy name, the financial names have been up by about the same amount >> it's not an auto company. depending on how conveniently you want to choose it being an auto company, they will deliver a million cars this year which i don't think they will do tesla's valuation makes no sense. it was about ford's ev game. i think the competitive landscape around tesla has never been more front an center. valuation in tesla, they're
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going to be raising stock constantly because they need growth capital first of all, that was a reason to get the stock to this level it rerated good for them. they were able to do it but it will weigh on the stock price. >> t often sited the reason for bullishness. i'll move on we'll talk instead about what's going on sort of socially speaking with the vaccination effort across the country. about 60% of the adult population has received one covid-19 vaccination right now the white house wants to get to 70%. the biden administration is coming up with all kinds of incentives they have turning to dating apps from match to bumble with badges
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to disclose vaccination status >> i think this is genius. this suggests there are young people in the biden administration who understand the key driver of this particular demographic which is fomo fear of missing out on hooking up with someone after maybe a year and change inside is an absolutely genius move to get vaccinated >> morgan. >> what does that mean in. >> it's great. you're vaccinated against one disease. what other diseases are there when talking about dating? that's all i'm going to say about that this gets at a bigger issue, a bigger debate that's going on and the rate of vaccinations are slowing. you can genuinely start to have the debate about whether we're going to hit, as the federal government defines it, herd immunity and what that looks like you have governors that are getting creative
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we talked to ned from connecticut. governor justice offering savings bonds. people getting creative. >> lotteries, wine tastings. >> my wife watches "power lunlu lunch," i'm not on any dating sites. good for them. >> so defensive. thank you for joining us very much appreciate it. as the cdc relaxes mask guide lieps and the u.s. economy gets back on track, one strategist says it's time to look for opportunities over seas take a look at shares of foot locker higher on stronger than expected earnings up about 3%. don't plisz it
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- i'm sure you've heard how grammarly improves your writing, but let me tell you how grammarly business helped my sales team. look at simon. since simon's team started using grammarly business, we've closed more deals. with suggestions to sharpen his writing clarity and overall confidence, simon's pitches always stick the landing, which leads to more of these and these. learn more at grammerly.com/business. welcome back the productivity boom has been a pleasant surprise for recovery
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my next guest says u.s. growth is set to peak this quarter. it's time for investors to search over seas la laurie, it's great to have you let's get specific a where should they put their money to work in. >> we think the recovery as legs we remain over weight to equities we have been looking at places like commodities for the next leg of growth. we started to reposition from certain regions into europe because relative value agationse pretty attractive there. trying to reposition to places where there's a bit more value is one of things that is a big thing for us right now >> where would those places? >> as i mentioned, looking at commodities as one place relative to equity markets because the broadcast commodity set will benefit from some inflation pick up. we would be looking at europe which is a place where we have
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been pretty cautious because of the slow ness of the roll out we plmoved d money out of asia. >> what about emerging markets in do you look for specific ones do you invest their broadly speaking and how long a time ho people expect to put capital to work there >> from an overall perspective it is an asset class and send to allocate on a tactical basis either into or out of emerging markets as a cohort if you will and a place we have been constructive generally but there are some regions that are more attractive china was a driver of growth over the last many years and to think about asia emerging markets being geared to china growth is an area where we would be favoring at the margin. if you look at latin america
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they have been suffering much more and behind the curve of the virus. so places to position but from an overall standpoint we look at it as an overall asset class and overall we have seen pretty good valuations there and dipping a toe there. >> areas we don't talk about these days thank you so much for joining us. >> sure. thank you. still ahead, is bitcoin falling this week and hill harper is hoping it falls more we'll tell you why next. this 'd fisher investments is different than other money managers. (other money manager) different how? don't you just ride the wave? (judith) no - we actively manage client portfolios based on our forward-looking views of the market. (other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions, right? (judith) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest. (other money manager) so when do you make more money?
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not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30. and they're number one in customer satisfaction. his number... delete it. i'm deleting it. so, break free from the big three. xfinity internet customers, switch to xfinity mobile and get unlimited with 5g included for $30 on the nations fastest, most reliable network. welcome back for many bitcoin is a huge opportunity to build weather it is not accessible to everyone else some investors of color now author hill harper is hitting the road to spread the word and the wealth. frank holland has more for us. frank? >> hey there 10,000 fractional bitcoin shares given away on the bus tour hill harper launched. the actor and activist an advising people of color to
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dollar cost average and to bitcoin. the tour stopping in detroit last night where the team made the 25% bitcoin rise in 2021 makes it an ascending asset opposed to the dollar. >> we want to show and prove by giving free money away here's what -- where they will sit. this is how you can access them and move them around and dollar cost average into the asset class. it is important for me to do it. >> bitcoin adoption by investors of color is already on the rise with black and latino investors more likely to hold crypto harper said the decline of 30% over the past month may scare some investors of color but highlight that is only 21 million bitcoin can exist.
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>> think about this bitcoin as real estate. digital real estate. what has historically made real estate an asset class? skarsty. >> reporter: it's transferred on may 31st and the anniversary of a racial attack that destroyed black wall street in oklahoma and that's what the app is named after. >> it is interesting that actually blacks and hispanics more likely to own crypto if i saw that bar chart correctly and super interested you see on tiktok everybody who's so excited about it and seems like he is drawing attention to it and i assume that would only help raise awareness. >> yeah. he is trying to draw attention and strategy and celebrities talking about it rapper naz in a new song talking about the money that he made investing in coinbase and seen
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others tweet i'm going to buy dogecoin so it's becoming much more mainstream. >> what's kevin durant's involvement? >> he is an investor in coinbase. >> okay. i missed that. good for him there's all the nba players, so strategic in everything they do. thank you so much. that does it for "the exchange." coming up next on "power lunch," are you ready? the crypto universe saying it's leading investors to doom and will explain his call after this quick break.
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. hi, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. i'm kelly evans. tyler matheson joins us in a moment it's a crypto crackdown. china leading the charge but now countries are stepping up regulation and the u.s. is starting to think about a possible competitor. an epic battle tim cook taking the stand in apple's court case as the company is called the app store cut criminal a power struggle millions in texas lost power after the big storm and now turning to homes t
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