thoughtful weekend the dow, nasdaq, s&p are all in the green. we will see you on the other side of this long weekend back here see femalif we can get manager . get stocks moving back again after hanging for the month of may. that's going to be the story no sell in may, go away. that does it for us. "the exchange" begins right now. thank you very much. here is what's ahead this hour the call heard around wall street one analyst out with major warning on apple saying iphone 12 sales will miss expectations and a stock is a sell. he joins us momentarily to make his case the hoemd me building stocke up 30% this year are ta are buy he says so

we have seltzer in the office now. >> free seltzer. we have ga new machine. we can app base it and do hot and cold water and sparkling i digress. the markets are positive we're not far away from record highs. the dow industrials are 1.5%int. the s&p 500 are down the nasdaq is try of 3% away from its own intraday highs. we'll see if that holds. it's the last trading day in may. cyclical name, economically sensitive. pe materials. energy that part of the story as well then consumer discretionary. the worst performing sector down

3% it's not necessarily retail that's doing it. amazon is part of that story it had a down month. also tesla the two most heavily weighted stocks by far in that sector amazon and tesla neg ative on te month. amc, what a roller coaster ride it's been. even just today, we are down 3%. it doesn't seem like a lot given the fact this is a roller coaster of a stock at the highs today, we were up roughly 38% intraday and at the lows down about 9% just on an intraday basis. itting towards low end of that spectrum still, a 12 million dollar company in amc entertainment it makes it roughly larger market value wise than norweigan cruise lines

>> are you hearing why >> there's a lot of folks stepping away. the volume slowed down from the surge. we'll see whether or not there can be any footing found the options market active here as well. the whole company has changed hands twice in two days. let's turn to apple now which is under performing the market this year it's down 13%. a bold call. one analyst says it could go even lower we're talking 0 buck he's downgraded the stocks. joining me now is the new street research managing partner. it's a pleasure to have you here the calls is bold but the reasoning is pretty calmly reasonable

you think expectations for the iphone 12 sales are too high >> expectations for the iphone 12s. the one i call the 12s which doesn't have a name yet. it's going to be announced in september. it hasn't produced a lot of changes. it's driven a lot of interest and that's bringing forward replacement. a look at people who would have replaced their phone nec year, are going to replace it this year or replacing it now this is really where i see the weakness this is the iphone has been so

good for the next refresh -- how that turns apple from $120 s stuck. >> it's a very good question kelly. expectations are to produce 230 million phones next year instead of 234 million slightly from what the market expects this year. i expect that number to come down maximum at 200 million units. even potentially i see the downside down as much to 180 everybody on wall street is going to adjust down the

expectations for 2022. if your earnings couldn't come down 10%, your price can come down 30% because your mull approxi -- mull ap multiple will come down. it's like missing 30 to 50 million units. in the broader scheme of things, becoming more and more service business, it is relatively small moving part.

we see a downside. this came down very significantly. >> your call caught our eye. on the show we had a number of big i vnvestors telling us they are not that bullish on apple. nancy taylor, another fund manager kind of left it out. you're kind of putting a period on a sentence that we have already been writing to some extent which is interesting. apple so big and influential i guess one question i have is on the services piece of this because this whole argument is saying that apple was a pandemic play and that the roeopening doe

not favor it they launched the phone that everybody bought because they were at home and generated the super cycle. why couldn't services carry the stock through a dip in iphone sales? >> yes i think the downside is on very similar lines. if you think about a five year horizon like the service opportunities, like we're talking like very good growth and so many products i would bring in opportunities all these things should carry the stocks through what can happen in services? it's financial performance we can expect it's going to be very close to

expectations you have like this very significant appointment and then along that, on the kind of one year time horizon, you're not going to have anything to say. readjusting back up over time but it has to go through this difficult 2022 year first. >> how ofstten have you had a sl on apple in the past >> only twice. one in 2018 on exactly the same set up with the iphone 10 and once for a short period of time where expect tags ations were r hard

i closed that rating fairly rapidly. it hasn't been my main position. >> thank you so much have great weekend the dow and s&p are on track for a fourth straight month of gains. it's time to be a little cautious because the smart money is selling bas barry, good to have you. i don't know if you want to pick up on the apple discussion we were having if there's anything anol analogous to kyour concern over stocks >> there are some similarities the wind was perfect but i kept

getting further and further away pr the ship i have supposed to be going toward. in the end i had to bail out an island the current was moving faster than the wind would move me. there's where we are today the wind, behind us right now, strong economy, great earnings, fed support and obviously fiscal stimulus the current, which is why i'm a little bit cautious is made up of o a couple of things we have high valuation and we see the smart money is selling look at the companies. there's record issuance of shares that's not positive. you see insiders selling pretty aggressively something that's been a great support in the masses have been bieg buying stocks. they are getting more and more cautious now

it could lead to pa pull back. we're seeing that already in the growth area in which apple kind of fits into that. the month of may, both large and small growth down. both large and small value up. that's just part of the transition i think that is taking place >> it's a great analogy. i know you're a classic stock picker as you look through the investment all of those with industrials, financials, housing. those in that kind of value part of the market. do you have to have a point of view on inflation to be thinking through the level of bond yield and the stuff that people are puzzling over right now. are these stocks that can perform well no matter what happens in terms of wages and price hikes and fed's response to all of that >> nobody really knows but we

think so especially a company like regents financial they make the money on the difference that's good for them maz mass tech in the infrastructure area this is perfect for them i know there's some rub about the housing industry they know how to pass along higher cost. their customer is a first time homeowner and very not sensitive to the price hike. as long as they can keep that up, i think these three in that cyclical area can work well. >> tell me about your concerns for the market overall you mentioned valuation and some smart money selling being the company themselves is this the kind of environment that could persist for the summer kind of near term thing that most people can ignore but

people who are kind of in and out of this for a few weeks need to pay attention to or is this bigger reset that you think might be coming? >> i think it's just part of the overall reset from the growth area to more of a value area with the economy on a positive turn in is natural, the currents will change and those will go away and those winds will come back into the market if i had a little room to take some things off the table, things that had run really fast, maybe too fast, as it were, this would be a good time to do that. >> thank you, sir. >> great to be with you. coming up, forget airlines or restaurants or even cruise

stocks how about buying reits as a reopening play we'll speak with the ceo of this mystery and could see a summer surge as americans hit the road. we spoke about it but builders can't raise prices fast enough that's what one analyst is saying about the housing market. look at this performance to new highs. we'll ask after this

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you need a breath mint. xfinity. it's a way better way to watch. he argues that peak profit margins are still to come for the builders and any recent dip in their stock prices are buying opportunities. he just raised his price targets on kb and menar. they are still up 30% this year along with the home builder etf, the xhb. stephen, it's create to have you been many are starting to ask if homes are no longer afrtable at these prices >> you're right. i would say we consistently gotten people concerned that things are too good.

this is cyclical industry. our call is that that it's way too early. if you look at what's going on now, you can see that the builders have literally reached the point where they can't raise prices fast enough they are moving to an auction type format. this is something we have almost never seen in the history of the modern home building industry. we think it's going to drive, pl believer it or not, another leg up in the gross margins. there's a lot of da ta to sugges that the streak continues to dig in their heels and model the kind of gross margin expansion which we think will come >> that might be in part because numbers are so extraordinary i'm thinking through what's happened with the cloud, for instance where you have companies who are saying we leapt from a 2015 operating environment to a 2020 operating

environment overnight. it feels like we had a decade of home price growth in a year. the fha index was up 14% in march. that's not just the urban areas. when you see price growth that rapid, you think to yourself, how much longer can this keep going? is it going to keep increasing from 14% annual growth >> i will tell you that if you look at the most recent data covering the existing home market, the home prices are up 26% year over year the comparisons get a little easier over the next few weeks you should be bracing yourself to see home prices up in the high 20s that's what we have ever seen in the past there's no question this is not sustainable level. i think the critical disagreement between myself and a lot of our peers is that there's over focus, we believe, on demand.

trying to predict can demand get any better can demand get any stronger and it's missing the point what is truly remarkable about the current environment is the lack of supply not just in the resell market but also constraints on home production if you look at a trailing 15 year series of housing start, very easy. anybody can pull it down take a 15-year average and go back to the dawn of modern home building and you'll see it was a steady rate. all of a sudden this cycle over the last 15 years have plummeted. we have under built this for over a decade. it didn't happen overnight, it's not going to be solved overnight. people say what if people decide to list their home if they do that, they have to buy a home at the same time. that's not going to change the inventory situation. the resell inventory cannot move

quickly, move higher quickly on the home building side we have more than a decade of underbuilding and it's not going to be solved in matter of year or two >> this is crazy you have out perform ratings on all the builders you raise your target prices but what you're seeing for society as implications i'll need to think through over the long weekend. thank you again. really appreciate it >> thanks for having me. coming up, nikkola and plug power are getting initiated with a buy today. we'll tell you what it is, why now and how much upside one firm sees ahead you can watch us any time now. you can use the cnbc app we're back in a minute machin ok, at at&t everyone gets our best deals on all smartphones. let me break it down. you got your new customers — they get our best deals. you got your existing customers — they also get our best deals. everyone. gets. the deals. questions?

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. welcome back i'm stilling about what we just talked about prices will keep going up from 13% to 20%, what is everybody going to do? it's about a third of a percent right now. we're about 60 points off the all time high. the nasdaq is the out performer. let's talk about some of the movers this hour shares of hp are lower they beat on the top and bottom line but warned of possible head winds. the shares are down 8%

ulta is up 5%. it's now $346 stock. it's having its best day so far this year. boeing is lower on the news the company is delaying deliveries of the dream liner amid a request from the faa boeing has clawed back to 247 but down about 1% today. let's get over to rahel for a cnbc news update >> the senate delayed considering legislation that aims to make the u.s. more competitive with china and other countries. the 250 billion dollar bill would boost investment in research and development and includes 50 billion dollar to address the globalchip shortage the bill will return to the senate floor on june 8th so there's more time to consider gop amendment. florida, a 14-year-old is facing first-degree murder charges in the death of a 13-year-old classmate. aden is being tried as an adult and faces a possible life sentence for stabbing tri stan bailey earlier this month. he's being held without bail get ready for heavy traffic

and crowded airports over the holiday weekend. the head of homeland security warning air travelers to expect long lines on the way to their flights and for the first time since the pandemic began, the u.s. could see more than two million air passengers in single day. the crowds won't be on the roads and the skies. see,000 country is trying to get back normal for memorial day and what safety measures you should still consider summer is upon us. kelly. thank you so much. after this break, 3.6 million jobs have still not returned to the hotel industry since the pandemic began one of our next guests says amazon is partial ily to blame o that we're back in a moment

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welcome back we have breaking news on president biden's budget it was just released we have the in your opinions >> kelly, the top line numbers on this 6 trillion dollar budget request were out this morning but we're getting our first look inside the numbers take a look at what president biden has requested here

as you go agency by agency, on defense in 2021, the request was 703.7 billion. in 2022, that pops to 715 billion. it's an increase for defense but not nearly as much as you see for education and for health care in education, you see 73 billion in 21. 102.8 billion, a really fantastic increase there for the education budget an health and human services, 108.4 billion back in 2021 2022 request 133.7 you can see the values behind this document that president biden is laying out what he believes the increases should go to take a look at the economic assumptions that we're learning about inside this budget this is how the biden administration is assuming the economy will go in order to generate these numbers real gdp percent change year over year in 2021, 5.2%. in 2022, 4.3%.

unemployment, 5.5% 2021 going out to 4.1% in 2022 a significant decline in the unemployment rate. ten-year, they're saying 1.2% in 2021 the assumption is 2.8% in 2030 2030 is a long time from now always tricky to predict but these documents require youto do exactly that. >> even though we just looked through a completely unpredictable pandemic absolutely we have to make plans and see if we can stick to them let's talk about the debt and deficit and how it would deal with matters like the expiring 2017 tax cuts. joining me is economic poilicy analyst. what are the headlines for you here >> well, what i find really interesting is those economic forecast we knew there was going to be a

lot more debt, record level of debt lot more spending. what do they forecast for interest rates we'll be doing a lot of stuff. they still think inflation will be under control interest rates rising gradually. that's pretty interesting. they are not assuming any big interest rate shock. everything else have an all else equal, also those gdp numbers, kind of a blip here this year and next they expect much more moderate growth i hope we can do better than that >> let's talk about the interest rates and the inflation piece of this give us some examples. what does that mean for the budget's goals >> if rates go up and i'm guessing because i don't see the numbers that the long term interest rate forecast is

probably not a lot different than cbo if long term rates are higher then we're talking, i don't know, 8, 9, 10 trillion more in debt what the administration is focusing on is keeping the interest rates payments under control. less focus on debt to gdp. that's going to be a record but as long as the payments are under control, then they feel like this is a sustainable budget that's kind of a change of course from previous administrations. >> we know this is basically a priority list. some call it a wish list congress has to get behind it. what is realistic? what of this are we likely to see come to pass and there's a will the of stuff in here that's really controversial especially some of the capital gain stuff how much of this spending do you think is likely to be given the go ahead >> i think you have to ask

senator manchin that he's the deal maker in the senate we'll see what the administration can get through that sort of needle. they have the slimmest of margins possible in the senate a slim margin control in the house. typically, a majority with a democrat in white house an democrats this control in capitol hill can do a lot but in this case they can do less than normal there's always come give and take here. no president gets exactly what he wants that's why i think you saw jimmy laying this out as a values document this is biden saying, look, if i could wave a magic wand and do something, this is what i would do obviously, he doesn't have magic wand and the senate is in way. that will be a political battle throughout the rest of the year. the idea you get exactly this, that ain't happening the question is how much can they push through? >> goldman said they are releasing at 1:30 on a friday into a memorial day weekend suggests trying to bury it to some degree. we'll see. >> not burying it here though.

we're paying attention >> focusing hard >> that's right. thank you both for joining me. the first real test for the summer box office. the clean energy trade is running out of juice hydrogen lites the road and free food to workers. we're back in a moment if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades. for smarter trading decisions, get decision tech from fidelity.

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at chevron, we're taking action. tying our executives' pay to lowering the carbon emissions intensity of our operations. it's tempting to see how far we've come. but it's only human... to know how far we have to go. welcome pback let's catch you up on a few stories that should be on your radar. it's time for "rapid fire. welcome one and all. let's start with what's going on this weekend in the box office the first major test for the reopening of theaters. analysts have high expectations for "quiet place ii" and disney "cruella." the meme stock, amc was up

almost 40% today now it's reversed. it did turn negative it's clawed its way back up to a 2% gain. >> this weekend will be very interesting. i will set the meme stock stuff aside. the two big movies that being debuted both have unusual distribution strategy. before the pandemic it was after 9 0-day window between when films were available and when you can watch them at home quiet place ii will be available for 45 days before people can then stream it on paramount plus cruella will be available for an additional $30 fee the question is does the fact that people aren't used to going to movie theaters keep people home or does the fact there's going be more options for how to watch these films depress the box off. it seems like there's excite kt

ab -- excitement getting out there again. >> the unofficial theme of this rapid fire and may be many to come is it's booming out there if you try to -- my downtown looked like a block party the last couple of nights. it was people everywhere it does feel like there's a lot of pent up demand. >> there's a lot of pent up demand you can see that anywhere you live across the country. does that translate into people going into movie theaters. we talked about the time frame going from 90 days to 45 days. how are a lot of these companies going to be sustainable in fear future when they will not have people come as often or compete with the streaming services. a lot of people are talking about it the debt levels they are

carrying is just incredible. some of their senior debt, you're seeing coupon rates well above 10%. how is this sustainable going into the future when movies aren't being shown >> it makes you think of the airline stocks carrying the huge debt loads what happens when that initial excitement turns to the long term sustain bability of it. what would you do with the stocks here? >> the movie we had is a function of short interest the reddit rebellion and i know sometimes we're not allowed to say it's lunacy but it's lunacy. $400 million of interest expense for amc on top of 2 to 300 million in capex to stay relevant with their offering i would be raising every single penny i could right here that last raise was around $9

which looked genius. they made 700 ebitda in a dec declining dynamic that's only getting worse. i don't understand any of this i realize i want to go to movies you want to go i will go again but their game is totally different than it used to be >> i think watching the stock is more entertaining than perhaps some of the movies tim, watch it. up next, green energy stocks have spent most of 2021 in the red. that's despite president biden's clean energy push and all this interest in electric vehicles. these are tickers pbk and tan are both down about 20% this year their etf chief for the americas

told cnbc investors shouldn't expect gains overnight when you think about the transformation to clean energy, you think about it over decade, not days >> this will take a while to change it's not the united states who had boris johnson in the united kingdom mentioning this plan you have china wants to clean up production all of this will not happen overnight. the fact that everybody is making a statement, you haveinvr capital into etf that's when you have to look at is the current market cap, the price you're seeing on all of the exchanges, are they very disconnected from the underlying values from a lot of these companies and that's where we can raise the question of whether these are in a bubble. i also have a graph that i was look at that maybe we can bring up in terms of how funds and

institutional investors are talking about esg and this barvw much it's gone up in the last year the conclusion is going green is here to stay but is it frothy. do we need to see it cool down because a lot of these companies aren't making money. >> it's unpredictable the tie that back to stock performance one wall street firm is initiating to players. plug power and nikkola we talk a ton about both of these names. this comes under this hydrogen umbrella neither stock is moving too much today but they are up big this week how do you play this humongous esg theme when it's unreliable on a stock by stock basis? >> yeah and investors in plug have seen the stock be on a wild

roller coaster ride. you're slowly starting to see both the infrastructure and the adoption and the otrientation fr consumers get to this transition this is earlier than ev. the best thing that ever happened to dirty energy people will hate me for this that's why energy and the oil sf services have been out performing it's great for dirty energy. >> to highlight this a bit, there's people saying this entire movement, this entire divest movement is bullish for the oil price, aka going to push it up. it's what we're using in the meantime a lot of the stuff that we drive and consume and pay our energy bills with is that old dirtier energy that will be more

expensive than ever as a result of all this. >> yeah. i think as we are kicking off this weekend where we're start driving somewhere and peak driving season is just getting going. people will look at energy credits differently. remember, tesla, i don't want to use this as a tesla segue other than to say ford and gm and the big oems have been buy energy credits and this has been a big wind fall for tesla. these are some of the other dynamics to watch. what worked yesterday is different. they will benefit from the credits. >> you want to go bearish on bitcoin to wrap up the whole thing in. >> sure. why not. we're going into a long weekend. isn't this the time when the price action around bitcoin has been collapsing. i don't know the vix is sub 15 or getting

around 16ish way, way down over the last two weeks off of the highs and yet crypto is struggling interesting. >> let's talk before we go as we look at these ropi reopening dyc across the country, some of the big banks are trying to lure people back with meals a long list of companies that are paying for or providing free food as a way to get people back into the office. now it's a motivation tool to bring back workers a recent poll found 64% of workers aren't comfortable returning to the office for another month or more. >> i have to say what's old is new again. this has been a technique of the silicon valley tech giants for

years. i remember a decade ago being in the offices like twitter, facebook, google, they all had the most remarkable spreads of food this is to keep people in their offices and working. you can save a lot of time if you don't have to leave the office and go get food also, there are a lot of office parks. there aren't that many options around i think this is really classic strategy not only to make workers feel appreciated and taken care of but also keep them from getting too distracted during their lunch break. >> god forbid. >> i think it's unfortunate you have so many of the smaller plays, mom and pop shops that can't get the workers back we're talking about big banks, big tech that can afford to offer subsidized meals but what about the smaller players that are still struggle, can't find workers and that's something we really need focus on in it's going to widen the gap between those who can and those who can't. it's great point thank, everybody have a good weekend.

for more on the firms using free food to get workers back to the office, very cnbc.com/pro. summer leisure travel is back and publicly traded hotel reits are benefitting from high demand the ceo of pebble brook joins us on the other side of this break.

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. welcome back hotels see demand surge. if it's an indication of the season it might be a hot summer but with the shortage of workers there's wait delays. seema mody is here with the state of the travel rebound. seema? >> we are heading into a busy season as the hospitality industry faces a pandemic induced shortage hotels employ 8.3 million workers but only 713,000 added back since the end of january. owners are hosting job fairs and

offering flexible hours. how can that impact the customer experience let's ask jon bortz, ceo, with pebblebrook. you are actually anticipating this weekend to be the strongest for the hotel industry since the pandemic with the staffing shortage what should customer who is are checking into a hotel expect will there be delays house keeping? in-room dining what should they expect? >> at least some of us are working on the friday afternoon before the holiday weekend we are expecting at least a record weekend compared to anything we have achieved so far here in the pandemic that's very encouraging. we think we'll hit occupancy levels similar to 2019 as an industry at rates that are about 10% to

15% lower than 2019. for pebblebrook, we think we'll hit occupancies in the low 60s about a third off of our 2019 numbers but the adrs are flat driven by the premiums and the portfolio of hotels. when it comes to the customers it is going to vary by market and hotels as it relates to service. we would ask customers to be patient, no different than what everyone is experiencing probably in restaurants these days it is hard to find cooks and servers but we are working hard at that. the folks are accepting lots of overtime the managers are working shifts. our objective is to deliver the same kind of services as we did in 2019 pre-pandemic. >> it's kelly here among other competitors amazon's

now a big one. is that right? >> yeah. there are a number of newcomb p -- new come -- competitors. we were a first industry to be hit and probably one of the last to recover completely and 25% of the employees in the industry based upon the surveys have moved on to other jobs outside of our industry so we're searching for those from other places than we normally do looking at universities and community colleges we think the shortage is temporary. so we're trying to bring on summer workers we we're pushing to get the h-2-bs through the immigration season

there are places where we are providing hiring bonuses of maybe $500 to new employees as well as bonuses to employees for referrals that turn into new hires. >> here's a question you have a couple hotels in florida. i wonder whether the pushback on businesses mandating the vaccine is resulting in some trade shows, conferences that were going to host at the big hotel saying we're going to a different state. >> yeah. seema, we don't really have large groups at any of the properties in florida but what i would say is most of the states and cities where major conventions have occurred in the past and hopefully occur again in the future as businesses return most are requiring for large gatherings requiring proof

of vaccination or a negative covid test so i think it's going to be fairly typical across the country. >> all right thank you for joining us today appreciate it. >> thank you for having me. that does it for "the exchange." we are not done yet here not even close ahead on "power lunch," the reopening theme and the skies on the plates and the stands. after this quick break you got your existing customers — they also get our best deals. everyone. gets. the deals. questions? got it. but, why did you use a permanent marker? because i want to make sure you remember. i am going to get a new whiteboard. it's not complicated. only at&t gives new & existing customers the same great deals on all smartphones. get up to $700 off our latest 5g smartphones. some say this is my greatest challenge.

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good afternoon and welcome to "power lunch. i'm kely evans on this friday ahead of what's expected to be a very busy holiday weekend america is reopened and we have got it all covered why travel is back more than 2 million americans are expected to fly this weekend. we'll speak to the former spirit airlines ceo new york city restaurants are back after a tough year and a slow reopen. all the sights, sounds and dining plus the stands are filling back up big time for the indy