that's such a change in hackett because so many cities enforced open container laws. these are take home with lids. you can't drink it on th street, right, dom >> in new orleans you still can but this is that you can sell alcohol to go. that could be a big deal for restaurants. >> dom, have a great weekend kelly, you too everybody watching, have a great wonderful weekend and remember why we do it to all the brave men and women serving in our armed forces and those who paid the ultimate price, we're thinking of you this weekend "closing bell" starts right now. >> you can have a little sip before you get it home, tyler. welcome to "the closing bell," everyone i'm wilfred frost the major indices set to close higher with 59 minutes left in the session. >> i'm sara eisen. another sign of inflation heating up as the core personal consumption index came in higher than expected. salesforce is driving the dow

higher the tech sector overall is leading the market a wild ride for the meme stocks like amc now in the green, up more than 100% on the week. >> coming up we'll break down president biden's $6 trillion budget proposal with council of economic advisers member jared bernstein. he'll join us first on cnbc. plus we're rounding out our m summer unmasked series with the ceo of hawaiian holdings let's get straight to the big stories we are watching. mike santoli tracking the market action meg tirrell with new comments from novava x's ceo. mike, let's start with you >> sara, basically steady, calm, unhurried action in the markets has been the story for the day, the week and the month of may. it's heading back up to the top of this plateau area we've been

in for about six weeks if you look right about there, a lot of indicators of market position are similar in terms of how far it is above its longer term trend and things like that. not to say it absolutely has to break out, but it seems more like traction than slippage. take a look at the 10-year treasury yield and how that has digested a lot of the inflation concerns we've got a hot, warm number on pce inflation this morning and really unmoved around the 1.6 level below the highs from march. again, this is an incredibly steep move for the largest securities asset class in the world. that's what's been going on. by the way, this is also the same exact shape of all the reflation sectors in equities. small caps, the material sector, the bank stocks, they all have this very aggressive run and then a little bit of a consolidation with a little tilt below the high so we'll see how

that plays out amc was still the story going in through most of the day. this is a five-year chart of the share price. you see obviously going vertical, for all intents and purposes near zero late last year, early this year. of course it's not in share price level back to its highs of '16, '17 take a look at the enterprise value, equity market cap plus net debt amc against cinemark, it's about 60% as large as amc in terms of number of screens, in terms of revenue from 2019, last full year so you would think maybe they'd be closer here no this is five times as large enterprise value than cinemark if this was all about the reopening, people going back to movie theaters and excitement for the future of film, you'd think it would affect both no, it hasn't gone viral yet and that's the underlying story in

e terms of this discrepancy. you would say amc is short perhaps but this is a shorted stock too. very similar to the stated short interest in amc. sometimes it just catches the jetstream of the aggressive trading flows and that's what's going on with amc. >> how many different ways can you say that the stock looks overvalued, mike, the theme of the week. >> and be ignored. >> and nobody cares? >> without a doubt and i'm fully used to it by the way, i don't think that every move in the market has to be knitted closely to fundamental value. lots of things diverge from fundamental value. momentum is a real fphenomenon i the market stampedes work until they stop working. you know what, $25 billion in enterprise value is like coins between the couch cushions of a $40 trillion equity cap market but don't think you've got something figured out or the wisdom of crowds is at play

here this is just a game. >> that's why we need you, mike. just quickly wanted to bring up the nasdaq, the winner of the week, up 2% but the loser for the month of may have things started to shift here where growth and tech is taking more of a leadership role in this market >> it's a little bit nip and tuck i think you've seen traction in the large cap growth stocks. they have held well above their lows from march so they had a pullback this month too but not nearly back to those levels. so it seems like the high quality stable parts of mega cap growth have started to come off lows facebook has gotten a lot more attention. you've even seen a bounce in some of the more aggressive stuff but that's coming off a 30% loss i would say it's much more just that they're participating, not that they're about to lead again. >> mike, thank you see you again shortly. let's turn now to health care and the latest on novav anovava

covid vaccine. >> we are expecting the company's phasethree results from the united states we've seen phase three results from the uk really any day now i asked him about the status of that and he said they have accrued all of the events to be able to assess the results and right now the data analysis is just happening here's what he said about the timing for when we might see those results. >> the public statement is that we'll have the data announced by the end of the second quarter. i think it will be sooner than that so we're doing the statistics and you run the tables and i think we'll be looking at data really soon. >> data really soon coming from novavax on its vaccine they are hoping for authorizations really around the world potentially in the third quarter. now, i asked him, there is some thought that the fda because we have three vaccines under

emergency use authorization already may start asking companies that are still filing to pivot to full approval, which he said he's not expecting they are still expecting to go to the emergency use authorization route. but if they did have to file a bla, a full approval application, he said that wouldn't affect the timing of their filing but when the fda acts on it in terms of supply, that's very important as well. they have already manufactured 30 to 40 million doses they have faced delays in manufacturing and shortages of raw materials. he said by the end of this year they hope to be up to a rate of 200 million doses per month. next year 1.5 billion to 2 billion doses in the full year if they get everything onboard and all goes well, guys. looking forward to the future as well, we also talked about their plans in flu here's what stan erck said about that. >> the plan is to start a trial later this year of a combination vaccine. we think that's going to be a

really important product so that you get a seasonal flu and coronavirus vaccine shot every fall and then boost it every year >> guys, this is something that we've been hearing about from pfizer and moderna as well with the mrna vaccines planning to start flu trials potentially this year themselves but novavax already has phase three data in flu so this year they're planning to start the combo trial of flu and covid this will just be a phase one trial but we're starting to see perhaps the next phase of these vaccines starting to play out. guys. >> but for the coronavirus vaccine itself, this year in the u.s. this one probably not going to see much demand >> yeah, you have to wonder. you have half of adults already vaccinated here in the u.s., so we could be potentially talking booster shots as the role in the u.s. for novavax if it gets cleared. >> meg, great stuff. thanks so much. president biden releasing the first detailed budget of his

presidency today critics say it's too much spending without much of an impact on growth jared bernstein will join us next to discuss. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. ♪ ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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which shows will you be getting into tonight? how 'bout all of them. netflix. 'cause xfinity gets you really into your shows. when one burns for someone who does not feel the same. daphne, let's switch. from live tv to sports on the go. felix at the finish! you can even watch your dvr from anywhere. okay, that's just showing off. you get all of this on x1.

so go on, get really into your shows. you need a breath mint. xfinity. it's a way better way to watch. shares of boeing slipping as the company says it's delaying deliveries of the 787 dreamliners. phil lebeau has the story for us hey, phil. >> wilf, this is one of those stories where it's been going on for some time with boeing talking about how it has new procedures when it comes to essentially inspecting the aircraft before they are delivered. well, according to the faa, they want more information. as a result, boeing has made the decision that when it comes to 787 dreamliners that it has built, it will be delaying deliveries of those aircraft as it works with the faa over what the procedures are when it comes to inspecting the joints of the aircraft where they are brought together where those two sections come together, some of the questions about quality control that have

been there for some time, the faa has said and issuing a statement saying boeing still needs to show that its proposed inspection method would meet faa's federal safety regulations. the faa is waiting for additional data from boeing before determining whether the company's solution meets safety regulations. since the faa has not approved boeing's proposal, boeing chose to temporarily stop deliveries to its customers if you take a look at shares of boeing, we're showing you this since march 26th remember, boeing had halted deliveries of the 787 dreamliner essentially from october all the way through the end of march as they were working through this issue with regard to quality control and the shims that were in question with regard to the manufacturing of these aircraft. they started deliveries at the end of march well, now they are once again temporarily delaying them. so this is an issue, guys, that it's unclear how long this will go but for now, boeing is holding

off on delivering any more 787 dreamliners. >> phil, is this leading analysts to raise the question whether there are fundamental issues in terms of their aircraft design following all of the issues to the 787 max or is that unrelated and this is a one-off? >> it's unrelated to the design of the aircraft. what it does raise questions about, wilf, is the quality control and manufacturing questions at boeing. you know, this has been going on for some time with the 787 dreamliner you heard michael o'leary when he said look, i have no problem with dave calhoun and the senior management at boeing i do have a problem with how seattle, the commercial airplane division, is handling a number of the questions with regard to manufacturing processes. so that question is out there once again because of this delay. >> phil, thanks so much. much appreciated as always boeing down about a percent and a half today. up next, the council of economic advisers member jared

bernstein on president biden's first budget proposal which assumes the corporate tax rate may be hiked to 28%. a number that may face a lot of resistance in congress. later dr. scott gottlieb weighs in on the vaccine rollout and how the need for booster shots could affect the economic reopening. as we head to break check out some of the top search tickers on cnbc.com. amc topping the list followed by the 10-year yield, ale, pp salesforce and gamestop. we're back in a couple of minutes. out of convenience, or necessity. we can explore uncharted waters, and not only make new discoveries, but get there faster, with better outcomes. with app, cloud and anywhere workspace solutions, vmware helps companies navigate change-- meeting them where they are, and getting them where they want to be. faster. vmware. welcome change. it's not some magical number.

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president biden unveiling his budget proposal today. joining us now first on cnbc is jared bernstein, member of the council of economic advisers in the biden administration welcome back, jared. good to see you. >> good to see you, sara. >> so my first question is just on the size, $6 trillion this increases our debt to record levels and also makes $1.3 trillion budget deficits yearly for the next decade is there any limit to how much debt we can take on here >> this is an historical investment in building back better in a way that can deliver a resilient and inclusive recovery that has eluded so many people in the middle class for so wrong you correctly raise questions about fiscal sustainability and this budget meets them and meets them solidly in year ten of the budget, the deficit turns negative and in

the second ten years, we reduce the budget deficit by $2 trillion now, how does that happen? because the revenue raisers in this budget continue while the spending plans are up front. so it is a fiscally responsible budget that lowers the trajectory of the debt, not raises it. >> all right so we have to talk about the tax gains. as you know, hot topic here. and the retroactive capital gains tax, dating it back to april. you know retroactive tax policy, changing the rules of the game right in the middle is not good for growth or investment or business why would you do that? >> well, we've had many arguments over the years between myself and many folks over there about the growth impacts of these tax changes. i would say that the very heavyweight of a careful empirical literature on this is that changes in capital gains tax rates have very little effect on investment behavior.

what they do have a pronounced effect on is on timing effects people will try to tweak the timing in order to take advantage of changes in the code and what the president is trying to do here is inject some real lasting fairness into the tax code and the change that you're talking about does that. by the way, i also want to highlight the very important tax compliance measures. i'm afraid that they could get lost in the mix here this is something that a former irs commissioner today called absolutely transformative. an $80 billion investment in trying to close the gap between what people owe and what they pay the irs, families above $400,000 >> jared, you just mentioned this is justified on the tax and spend side of things, the debt side of things, by what happens in the second ten years. so you're really projecting out that far to then try to claim that this is lowering the debt rather than increasing it. it just -- it doesn't sound very

sort of legitimate >> well, i think it is the reason why that makes a lot of sense in the context of this budget is if you look at something that's actually pretty historic, which is that in the first table, table s-1 if you're following along at home, we show that real debt service as a share of the economy remains well below its historic average over the first ten years why is that? i know i'm talking to a financial market audience here and i don't think you think about making investments if you weren't looking at the interest rate we have a low interest rate environment that has certainly predated this budget and is expected to prevail in the coming years that provides more fiscal space to front load some of these investments while being fiscally sound in terms of raising the revenues that i've mentioned in the latter part of the budget period as well as the second decade so i think the important thing

to recognize there is that the spending is front loaded in the first eight years. the revenues keep going. >> yeah, let's hope inflation doesn't spike so that those interest rates stay low. i also just wanted to ask wll we're getting enough bang for our buck in the early years in terms of the spending. after the first 18 months based on your own projections, growth is not particularly exciting it's fairly lackluster 2023 it's only 2% and after that average is 1.8% for the next four years it seems like fairly tepid growth given the amount of money that's being spent. >> well, i don't think so. i think the idea here was to write down a forecast that was consistent with that of, say, most of the blue chip forecasters. if you go out to year 2031, we have gdp, real gdp growing at 2% that partially and only partially reflects some of the growth-inducing impacts of the

families plan and jobs plan because when we did the forecast back in february those plans hadn't been formulated yet but we sensed they were coming well, in 2031, the congressional budget office has gdp growing at 1.6% the fed's long-term gdp growth rate is 1.8. so at 2%, we're 20 basis points above the fed, 40 basis points above cbo. anybody who knows compounding gdp math knows that actually makes a huge difference if it persists year in and year out, which is what our forecast predicts so i would disagree that it's not an important difference. i would say that, yes, we're not writing down numbers that are indefensible as has happened in some previous budgets in the last administration. >> one of the numbers that struck me as a little odd and i'm on table s-9 if you're following at home with those assumptions is the consumer price index, jared, which you have for 2021 at 2.1%, for 2022

at 2.1%. we're printing numbers a lot hotter than that already on cpi. >> totally. >> we got one on pce today you passed $2 trillion in covid relief and called for another $4 trillion over the next ten years. do you think we'll have that kiepgd kind of benign inflation this year and next >> that's a totally fair point that you're making the fact is we did this budget in february. if we had done it recently we would have reflected some of the hotter prints here this gets back to something wilfred said real debt service is a function of the real interest rate. the real interest rate is the nominal interest rate minus inflation. so higher inflation actually erodes the debt. now, i will say this, our inflation forecast does match up to the fed, to the blue chip, to virtually every forecast i've seen once you get past this

period that we, and more importantly the fed, believes to be a period of transitory price pressures. but you're absolutely right to highlight the difference between a budget -- a forecast that was written in february and one that would be written more recently >> but it does bring up the flaw that you mentioned in the plan, which is the debt servicing costs, especially if the fed does start to taper. if we do see rates start to rise, there's going to have to be a lot of bonds sold here. are you confident -- >> yeah, so let me say something about that which gets to your last point so our 10-year yield on the interest rate by 2030 is 2.8%. so that is, again, right in the middle, not only of what you'll see from virtually every mainstream forecast, but i know yesterday my cea colleague looked at the forward rate predicted by the market for ten years ahead and it was 2.9%.

we're at 2.8%. so again, we're doing a budget, we have to make a forecast, but we are right in the mainstream when it comes to these interest rate numbers and that's why our debt service as a share of the economy, it's really important, we've never printed this in a budget before. you've never seen this but i think it's so important to reflect the interest rate environment which provides you this kind of fiscal space given what's happening with the global interest rates over recent years. >> 2.8% in 2030. i'll bet you a beer it will be higher than that, jared. we'll see. >> you would have lost that over the last few years. >> well, i know, but i'm saying 2030, so we'll see the final question i wanted to come back to -- >> hold on, is that beer going to be room temperature or is that going to be cool? >> definitely cold i don't like any of that flat room temperature stuff. >> just wanted to establish that. >> done. you can order what you like anyway, just the loser has to

pay. but back to the final question, jamie dimon made quite a clear point a couple of times during these hearings which he said of policy markers in general, pleas stop worrying too much about exactly how big the bill is, how big the budget is and make sure every dollar spent gets bang for its buck how confident are you that you'll look back and say this was very well planned and well spent money? >> this is an important point. i'm glad you finish out on this. these are historical investments. when you're talking about the jobs plan you're talking about a once in a generation investment in a country that's going to create millions of good jobs, rebuild our nation's infrastructure, put the united states finally in a position where we can outcompete china. the american families plan to finally provide families with

the basic expenses they struggle with now standing up an elder care and child care sector. getting our discretionary programs out from under caps that have suppressed investment in education, in college, in child care, in clean water so these are -- these are productive investments that are going to make a significant return on investment, certainly above the kind of interest rates that we've been talking about, which is why that debt service as a share of the economy stays so low as a share of the economy. it provides us with fiscal head room to make these transformational investments so thanks for giving me a chance to reflect on that. >> well, for now it's just a wish list, i think we should say, right, the budget and we'll see what congress does with power of the purse. >> i certainly don't think of it as a wish list i think of it as a set of transformational investments that congress, we're going to be working as closely as we can with congress to make a reality. >> jared bernstein, thank you very much for your time. >> thank you, sara

brace yourself for a down cycle. that's what new street research is saying in a new note about apple. details on why they downgraded the stock and some key levels to watch coming up. as we head to break, a check for you on bonds as we've been talking about, the 10-year yield is hovering just around 1.5%. very low yields which jared bernstein would welcome, below 1.60 we've seen them move south in the last few weeks we'll be right back. hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this... your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee... yeah i should've just led with that... with at&t business...

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time for a cnbc news update with rahel solomon. >> here's what's happening at this hour. four former department of homeland security saying it is deeply alarming that they have blocked a january 6 commission they say president trump's big lie is now the defining principle of the republican party. >> to my republican colleagues, remember that day. to my republican colleagues,

remember the savage mob calling for the execution of mike pence, the makeshift gal lowes outside the capitol. >> in tulsa, oklahoma, a memorial to kmemcommemorate the black massacre and on a lighter note, the cdc is easing its safety recommendations for summer camps. it says vaccinated kids no longer need to wear a mask some social distancing guidelines remain, including those for unvaccinated campers >> that is good news rahel, thank you 27 minutes left to go before the closing bell it looks like we're going to end may on a high note they're already whooping which i missed so much. >> it's a three-day weekend. >> that's the traders.

technology leading the market higher. the dow is up more than 115 points up next, the doctor is in the house, literally dr. scott gottlieb joins us live from the nyse with his outlook for the summer and whether we'll need covid booster shots in the fall. plus all week long, our summer unmasked series we've been asking ceos about the great reopening. here's what we've heard so far about very strong demand. >> 2022 is pacing double digits ahead of where we were in 2019 and 2020 we thought 2020 was going to be our biggest year ever. >> our 2022 book of business is the best its ever been for any year at this point of the booking cycle. >> we're heading into the summer holiday season, memorial day, july 4th and labor day with a majority of our hotels with bookings that put them back into -- at the same level that they were in 2019.

coming up, our final installment of the series with the ceo of hawaiian holdings wh hate's seeing in the airline industry later on "closing bell." [w ling bel ngs] [music: “you're the best” by joe esposito] ♪ try to be best 'cause you're only a man ♪ ♪ and a man's gotta learn to take it ♪ ♪ try to believe though the going gets rough ♪ ♪ that you gotta hang tough to make it ♪ ♪ you're the best! around! ♪ ♪ nothing's gonna ever keep you down ♪ [triumphantly yells] ♪ you're the best! around! ♪ [ding] don't get mad. get e*trade and take charge of your finances today. ♪♪

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vaccine issued moments ago the equal employment opportunity commission saying employers can require employees to be vaccinated 40% of the population is fully vaccinated joining us now form fda commissioner, dr. scott gottlieb great to see you, thanks for joining us shame it's not quite in person but nearly there what's your take on this bit of breaking news? do you think it will drastically change the rates of vaccination or is that really defined by other factors at this stage? >> i don't think it's going to change the equation for a lot of employers. previously the eoc had issued guidance saying businesses could require vaccination. this seems to be a more binding recommendation but i don't think it's going to change the equation in terms of businesses thinking about requiring vaccination. a lot of businesses seem reluctant to do that right now right now large businesses are surveying their employees and seeing how many are actually getting vaccinated and if they have a sufficiently high level

of vaccination among their employees, i think they'll be reluctant to mandate vaccination. you could see a lot of smaller employers start to do that, particularly employers that have employees that are consumer facing so restaurants, people who go into homes and provide services. i can see a situation where small private businesses require vaccination among their employees but not large businesses based on my conversation with ceos for now. >> i wanted to ask what your view was on whether masks should still be required on planes. we've seen a pickup in number of cases of unrest on planes. to some extent it's quite understandable when people have seen the cdc guidance that masks aren't necessary anymore for people who have been vaccinated and they get on a plane and are told they have to wear one no matter what. >> i think it's going to get increasingly difficult as prevalence declines. we're heading towards 5 cases per 100,000 people per day it's going to get lower in july and august i think you could see a situation where those restrictions get lifted and it's

just optional. there will be people who prefer to wear a mask on mass transit or an airplane but it's not going to be required i think as we head into the summer, i would suspect that you'll see the federal guidance for masks on mass transit and airplanes get lifted because prevalence has declined to a level where the risk isn't sufficient to justify the requirement anymore. >> so you predicted quite accurately, dr. gottlieb, that we're going to be in good shape in the summer and as it gets warmer but have also warned about the fall and winter and seeing a rise in cases i'm wondering why you're predicting that given some of the studies out this week showing people who have been affected with covid-19 have longer lasting immunity than thought and that along with vaccinations could mean they never need boosters. why do you predict this is coming back? >> the vaccines have proven to be more effective than we first anticipated. it seems the immunity you get from prior infection is more durable than we first

anticipated. i don't think this will be an issue for the fall last year the number of cases in the united states hit their low point on september 14th so cases didn't pick up until we got into november that's going to be probably later this year because of the immunity in the population so i don't think we'll have an issue until we get into december, maybe january. this is going to be a late winter pathogen. but i do think that there's pockets around the country where vaccination rates are low, where there are people who haven't been infected. so you're going to see outbreaks. i don't think we'll see anything on the scale we've seen in the past but we'll see isolated outbreaks. the public steps we take will be reactive, not proactive. what we're likely to do is implement public health measures when we have outbreaks in certain cities or school districts or certain schools so it's much more reactive than it's been in the past. the bigger risk this winter is from flu

if we have a mismatch this year between the vaccine and the prevalent strain of flu, we could have a difficult circumstance with finfluenza. and that could be the difficult circumstance. >> i also did want to ask you on the vaccine front about the testing currently being done in young children great news about teens, but now that we're waiting for the next round of data on very little kids, including infants 6 months old or older, and we've talked before about how they have to experiment with different dosages. what would you tell parents about giving these young kids vaccines is it really necessary when we won't know the long-term side effects and so little numbers of those kind of kids, those age kids actually get very sick? >> well, look, we do have data on adults and on teenagers and young kids at this point you can extrapolate from that collected experience about the overall safety profile of these vaccines these are going to be decisions

that pirarents have to make individually with their pediatricians in consultation with their kids. young kids do get in trouble you do see especially very young kids that get in trouble with this virus trying to vaccinate that population and prevent them from getting infected, it's not just the consequences of the immediate illness, you do see some sequela in adults and children we shouldn't be cavalier about the risk to young children there is still risk with young kids also the children and the schools are going to be continued vectors for outbreak and community spread so if we want to have environments where kids can roam freely and schools can be open without restrictions, we'll have to get that population vaccinated as well in the long run. >> dr. gottlieb, i wanted to get an update on the dr. gottlieb safety indicator the past couple of weeks you said you still weren't eating at restaurants indoors but were part of the reopening here at the stock exchange and advising on the protocols required to do

that here in the workplace today. so what is the latest on that front? is it because the stock exchange is different or are you now very relaxed and happy to be at restaurants. >> i'm going out to my first indoor restaurant actually tonight. i feel more confident given the prevalence levels have dlieclin, given the fact i'm fully vaccinated i still wear a mask in indoors settings, grocery stores, pharmacies, but it's mostly out of a sense of etiquette because i think there are some people that feel uncomfortable in those environments i don't feel at risk given how low prevalence is in this region you look at connecticut where the positivity rate is 1%, z0.5%

i think the yooverall risk will continue to decline. >> i'm glad i was part of the interview after there were efforts -- >> i told wilfred that i'd be happy for him to excuse himself so that you could come sit at the desk. >> your tweet was hitting a man while he was down already. sara tried to oust he from the interview and you too. >> i won't leave you off again i'm sorry about that. >> enjoy your first meal indoors. that is a milestone. when dr. gottlieb says it's okay, it's okay, if you've been vaccinated. >> as long as he tags me next time straight ahead health care stocks under pressure and apple gets a downgrade those orsties and more next in the market zone.

which shows will you be getting into tonight? how 'bout all of them. netflix. 'cause xfinity gets you really into your shows. when one burns for someone who does not feel the same. daphne, let's switch. from live tv to sports on the go. felix at the finish! you can even watch your dvr from anywhere. okay, that's just showing off. you get all of this on x1. so go on, get really into your shows. you need a breath mint. xfinity. it's a way better way to watch.

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11 minutes to go here in the trading day and the week and the month. we are now in the closing bell market zone. commercial free action going into the close mike santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. today we've got bba capital partner ceo barbara duran back as well. the dow and s&p on track for monthly gains. nasdaq on track to post its first monthly decline in six months, since october, but is up more than 2% for the week and is outperforming. what stands out to you, mike, in terms of where the leadership is in the session today you've got real estate, technology and utilities, which is an odd mix of defensive and sort of risk taking within tech.

what does that tell you? >> well, i would say arguably those are lower yield plays at least cosmetically they do better when we're not talking about treasury yields rising, reflationary forces in the fore, and the whole cyclical story gaining pace but i don't think today is necessarily indicative of what the market has been doing in a larger sense or even what it might do i think the market is finding a way to stay supported. i guess you could look at it and say it looks fatigued. it looks like leadership is waffling on the other hand it's a bit of a restorative regrouping phase six weeks ago i would have told you things look ahead of themselves this will flatten out or correct so we can reset sentiment. i think that's largely happened right here with no net damage to the verall indexes i think that's probably the more upbeat take even if it doesn't mean we're off to the races as seasonal effects get a little bit dicey in june sometimes. >> barb, what's your take on

that for the rest of this year do you think there's a lot of attractive risk/reward with broader u.s. indices >> no, i don't i think this market has been very difficult we've seen these extraordinarily rapid and severe rotations and i think we're going to continue to see that i think there's two very simplified answers and one is valuations are really like late cycle valuations just about anywhere you look. as you know there's great support from the fiscal stimulus and the fed's commit meant t-- commitment to keeping rates low. so it's a market that rewards patience you have to wait as things correct, i mean look at the growth stocks, a lot of the faang stocks they have not been doing well this year. the last two weeks had a resurgence in my view why because the other stocks, cyclicals, reopening stocks had run up so it's just going to be a

continual chasing of where is the value and there's not a lot of value in this market at this point. >> shares of salesforce rallying following yesterday's earnings beat ceo marc benioff was on "mad money" talking about how the company's recent acquisitions fit into the overall strategy for the company. >> we can see these incredible companies we've been able to acquire like exact target and mulesoft and tableau have become a huge part of our performance and being able to deliver to these amazing customers and slack will be part of that as well all of our things will be slack first, the heart of the future and the heart of back to work. >> marc benioff there. mike santoli, decent jump in the share price today. a solid day of action holding on to 5% gains. >> pretty good reaction here, but the stock -- i think in part because the stock has been grinding lower, at least on a

relative basis since last august or so. it's kind of clawing a lot of that back. part of it was in late august, the dow jones industrial average should never be a reason to buy a stock. it was up 4% that day. the next day great earnings. it surged another $30 or something like that on a given day and so it was up tremendously that was the peak of the whole mega cap growth mania. then a couple of months later they bid for slack, it's big, it isn't a great valuation for the buyer. by the way, at that moment is when cloud stocks started to underperform or a little bit thereafter so it's just been a hard narrative slog for salesforce. now it seems like it's rebuilding a little confidence the story about slack, maybe they didn't get the best price for it but it's going to be integrated down the road and the longer term big picture strategy and benefits of salesforce's business have not really changed

over that span. >> especially when benioff points to his track record barb, you've owned this for a while. are you adding more after the earnings last night and some of the explanation -- >> i'm not adding here because i'm pretty well positioned right now it's not as -- >> we'll come back to barb perhaps in a little bit if we can fix that connection. in the meantime, mike, the broader tech big cap tech or mega cap tech, how has that performed in this recent little bounce we've seen for the nasdaq >> yeah, it's interesting. i think there's a way to kind of grant that group credit for bouncing, for responding to the fact that it was kind of oversold it looks like it also was sold out pretty well by hedge funds big tech outflows. so you had this setup for there to be a big catch-up move in the large cap nasdaq stocks.

it has happened to some degree but those people who will study the interrelationships of all the different parts of the market are not really convinced that it's reasserted itself as the driving force behind this market in fact it will probably be bearish to the economy if in fact that's where it was at in terms of leadership. i think you can say they're no longer a liability as a group. they're holding their own, staying above march lows and they're certainly cheaper than a year ago but it doesn't seem like it's where the action is at honestly it's not as much about interest rates as much as it is the overall market is going to grow 30%, t35%. >> let's hit apple which is lower today. it got a rare downgrade to sell at new street research they argued that iphone 12 demand is unsustainable in future cycles and consumers will spend less money on electronics as the economy opens that analyst elaborated on his

reason for the downgrade >> a lot of people who normally would have replaced their phone next year are actually going to replace it this year or are replacing it now and this is really where i see the weakness on the back of this very strong level of replacement today, in one year from now we see far less people in the market buying iphone >> you can certainly relate to that idea, mike. i'm just watching the stock and the levels 124.76, which is just above the 200-day moving average 124 is that 200-day moving average level. below that we look to the march closing lows of 116. so it goes from sideways action, mike, to potentially breaking lower. what could that mean for the stock and for the market >> yeah, it's a little bit delicate it's obviously been an underperformer as most of the big stocks have been but even in

that group it's not the go-to. it's much more about facebook, alphabet, microsoft, not as much apple with the hardware. it's actually very much like amazon, this extremely long sideways move. so yeah, there's some technical vulnerability all along the way. valuation is moderated they're going to do the huge capital return i get the idea that it's a tough act to follow with this generation of iphone the upgrade cycle might not be that interesting but i can't get away from the notion that in 2015 is when we saw the peak unit sales for iphone 2015 it was down from there the knicks five years or six years the stock has quadrupled because of everything else that's gone on at the company. >> apple down a little bit by 0.4%. now, the health care sector has been hot this quarter, but health tech stocks have been under pressure bertha coombs has the details for us bertha >> wilf, overall health, the

sector is up 9% in the first half digital health names retreated right along with big tech. teledoc down more than 50% one analyst at credit suisse says concerns about returning to in-person care and rising competition are overdone investors also bearish on valuations for online pharmacy hims and hers and clover health, both listed via spacs in january. clover, more than 55%. once again that selling season very important for growth, sara. >> painful for a lot of the biggest winners. you heard the two-minute mark. mike, what are you seeing in the market internals right now >> modestly positive the index is losing a little altitude but we do have a good deal more stocks and an down if you look at the new york staock

exchange on the month we did have cyclical leadership among the riskier, more aggressive stocks. if you look at the high beta, s&p etf against the low volatility version so 3 percentage point outperformance is a lot of energy doing the work as well as financials, maybe some semis as well the volatility index is really giving way it always has a downside buy ahead of a three-day weekend you probably expect it to rebuild a little bit next year also the fact that maybe the fever broke for the moment in the amc and meme stocks, that has sometimes been a prop to the vix and that has eased up just slightly in the last few hours, wilf. >> 40 seconds left of trade for the month, the week and the day. real estate, utilities the best performing sectors consumer discretionary and communication services the worst

performing sectors as we look at the close of the session, the s&p just losing ground to be essentially flat today, but it's up 1.2% on the week half a percent for the month as a whole. the nasdaq, interestingly, up 2% for the week, the best performer for the week but the worst performer for the month down 1.5% and that's a wrap on the week and the month of trade. welcome back, everyone, to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen along with wilfred frost and mike santoli, cnbc markets commentator let's take a look at how we finished up the day on wall street you can see a little selling into the final hour of trade in a three-day weekend. closing up only 65 points. biggest contributor to the dow gains salesforce by a mile adding 79 points by itself boeing taking the most off, down 23 points off the dow.

there's the s&p 500 closing essentially flat on the day. you had strength in groups like real estate, utilities, technology, health care, but communication services, discretionary, materials and industrials weakness higher for the month of may by about half a percent also higher for the week by 1% the nasdaq biggest winner on the week closing essentially flat. you had strength in nvidia, adobe, some of the chip names. google but weakness in apple, facebook and tesla. the nasdaq the overall loser for the month, the only one to close lower. the russell 2000 down boy 0.2 of 1% meme stock mania returns this week helping amc and gamestop soar coming up paul hickey on whether these moves have any indications on the broader market. plus our summer unmasked series continues. this hour we've got the ceo of

hawaiian holdings and how the labor shortage is impacting his business first up, though, robert nobles joins the conversation first to you, mike, how would you wrap up the month and where do we head from here >> i think the month basically is represented by the bull market kind of holding serve there was some excesses that needed to be worked off. it did seem a little bit extended at the beginning of the month, more into mid-april, and that has mostly been rectified by the market going sideways and frustrating and boring people along the way which does sap some enthusiasm which in theory could set the stage for another leg up if that's where we're headed a little lack of energy. you can't get around the fact that there's not a lot of incremental aggressive buying across the main indexes. we did have a fully allocated investors coming into this phase so i think that's the tug of war at the moment. but just to step back one minute, we are now up 50% on the s&p over two years

that's well into what was a bull market near all-time highs so it's not as if the market owes anybody anything but it still retains the benefit of the doubt because you're not seeing a lot of stresses in credit, in dislocations despite all the crazy stuff with the meme stocks. >> robert, do you think the market over the course of this month has managed to shake off one of the biggest fears out there and that of inflation and rising rates >> thanks, wilfred you know, what we're seeing is really a battle tested bull market run and it's been able to withstand a few challenges you mentioned one about inflation, the concerns and worries, and even today as we watch the pce indicator show, we don't think inflation will be permanent. we do see it to be transitory, especially after the supply and demand reach an imbalance -- reach a balance. so that's one of the challenges. it's been able to withstand the

long term treasury bond yields, the 10-year. and also as we travel around this weekend for memorial day we're seeing higher gasoline and oil prices even if you factor in the when and the how the federal reserve is going to taper the monetary stimulus that they provided during this pandemic, we don't see the stock market taking a tumble any time. so we would continue to remain invested and just have some patience >> aaa national average for a gallon of gas is $3.44 a little less than that. 55% higher from where it was a year ago but then again remember where we were a year ago. barbara, i think we've got you back on the news line. sorry about the connection issues you were saying this is a market that rewards patience and you have to have your shopping list handy. what sort of themes or stocks have you been buying or do you want to buy when we get some weakness >> no, i do want to buy because i'm always looking for the

thematic plays, the long-term secular plays that have big addressable markets. i think facebook has been talked a lot about and that's one that i just added recently. the digital advertising is benefiting a lot of names like alphabet or pinterest. i think facebook has a long way to go. also the visa, mastercard, these are not only reopening plays but it is secular play on the continuing transition to electronic payments away from paper that is still -- has a long way to go and paypal which are a play on some of the new ways of doing business when they started doing crypto, i thought that was a good one. in the fin tech area there's some good ones and not to mention all the classic retail, whether it's costco or target, nike or starbucks. lululemon which is expensive right now, but these are great long-term winners.

it's just a question of when you buy them because valuations have been high. >> mike, is there a risk from the meme stocks doing so well that either they're going to come back down and take with them, remove some of the investor optimism and/or see some hedge funds get squeezed? >> certainly there is the risk at this point as exciting as it's been with a couple of them, it has not reached the magnitude of what we saw in january and early february just the amount of call buying, which is really muscling around the market, i think you have a less complacent hedge fund community right now. in other words, there was not a lot of people who were really fighting hard on the short side. yes, short some of these kind of secularly challenged companies but i think that's why maybe it hasn't really built on itself multiple days in a row but there's always the risk because you have idiosyncratic volatility coming out.

people have to hedge the other side and pull back on other bets there's the risk of that but we're not seeing it take hold just yet. let's turn to washington where president biden released his first official budget at that eamon javers has more on that for us hey, eamon. >> yeah, wilfred, i hear the whoops behind you. take a look at what we're learning in terms of corporate taxes and the president's plans going forward. in this budget he's predicting $268.5 billion in corporate income taxes in 2023, $576.6 billion. that is a massive increase in corporate taxes. there you see a large part of how the president plans to pay for a lot of the spending that's in this budget as well here's the capital tax gains tax increase as well the effective date is going to be april of 2021, so that's worth looking at in terms of retroactivity. that means you're sort of

already caught in that, $322 billion over ten years for capital gains. irs tax compliance, if you have been cheating on your taxes, there's going to be an enormous budget now for irs agents to go catch you. $75 billion spend on the irs they're predicting will raise an additional $315 billion plus dollars. that is they feel that that's the amount of money that they can go out and find among taxpayers who are not paying their fair share as of right now. we'll see if all that bears fruit. remember, all this has to get through congress so this is not a done deal yet, this is just a proposal from the biden administration but it gives you a really good sense of where their head is and what they value, wilf. >> we talked to jared bernstein last hour and that was my question, what is realistic because the market is not throwing a fit about these retroactive capital gains taxes or corporate taxes, rates going

higher, so what's the likelihood here with congress where are the democrats going? >> the likelihood is that the president is not going to get what he wants. he's not going to get everything that he wants. there's going to be some negotiated settlement. you can look to your moderate senators for some guidance on how much of this they might buy in but the president -- no president gets what he wants this president with these margins as thin as they are is definitely not going to get everything that he wants but i think the future looks different under biden than it did under trump and that's just an undeniable fact of the election cycle >> eamon javers, thanks so much for that robert, do you think all of this extra spending will, a, materialize and, b, boost equities at the same time? >> that's a good question, wilfred. no i think that's been proposed today by president biden and his administration is probably if you want to call it the most

spending and most taxes. there's a lot to be debated and figured out here in washington historically there's a lot of horse trading that occurs. so we would expect less spending and fewer taxes. but regardless of that, today the announcement was made and the market basically shook it off. it heard it before, it expected it to be this way. we're looking at strength in corporate earnings we think stocks will continue to rise over time because analysts have missed the mark on corporate earnings the last two or three quarters. we think that trend will continue for the next couple of quarters going forward then you look at today's manufacturing data that was very strong using the chicago pmi as an example and it's going to be a while before supply catches up with demand. we haven't even talked about the recovering employment picture. this week we had a better unemployment claims report next friday is the big jobs report we might not get to a million new jobs as we thought we did in april, but we're definitely headed in the right direction.

so we would tell you as companies remain focused on cash flow and profits, we would remain in stocks over bonds and cash we would think in the short run that consumer discretionary and industrials are the place to be because people are willing to spend whatever it is, regardless of what it costs but longer term we would come back to the bedrock technology companies and financials technology are secular growers and financials are wel positioned to pay dividends and buy back stock as soon as they can get loan demand to grow, they'll be very attractive to almost all investors in the market. >> robert, thanks for joining us barbara doran, thanks as well. sorry for the technical issues. one of the key issues emerging during our summer unmasked series is handling the labor shortages as businesses reopen and demand grows. >> this is probably the most challenging labor market i've seen in almost 20 years.

>> we are having significant issues getting enough people to come back to work. we have over 3,500 open positions and many of them have been open for a while. >> nobody can hire back all of their workers even if they wanted to. it's going to take in my judgment at least two or three months for supply and demand to kind of keep up with each other and to hit an equilibrium. >> coming up, the ceo of hawaiian holdings on whether he's having trouble finding enough workers to meet increased travel demand. plus hpaul hickey on what th return of meme stocks means to the broader market we're back in 90 seconds

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popular stocks on reddit like amc and gamestop closing lower today. all three finishing sharply higher joining us is paul hickey. we're all looking at the similarities and differences of the meme rally now versus january where it did have sort of a bigger effect on the broader market do you see that this time at all? >> yeah, hey, sara you're talking about it a little earlier. i don't think it's nearly as impactful for the broader market here as you were discussing on options volumes. they are not nearly as high this time around in these meme stocks i think it's more confined this time than it was than the last time earlier in the year they were looking at any stock that had high short interest and bidding it up. this time around it's more

focused and centered on just a couple of specific stocks. like gamestop and amc. >> would you tell anyone to trade around this? would you strategize or take the other side of any of these bets given how high these valuations can climb or is that too dangerous. >> i've done some pretty crazy things in my life but i wouldn't get in front of any of these meme stocks and try to short them it would have been nice to own them there's plenty of other stocks in the market that have done just fine over the last week they haven't doubled but they'll allow you to sleep at night. do i wish i owned them this week probably but over the longer term, these are more just noise rather than a broader impact on the market i just stay away it's fun to watch them, but that's about it. >> switching focus a little bit, paul, you always do analysis for us on the final hour of trade. what's that telling you? >> for us, for our show.

>> we have to thank the two of you, wilf and sara for the first quarter of this year we saw a pattern in the market which was very weak where you would just see the market steadily rise throughout the day. the last hour we would get up pretty high and then we would just sell off. it was very disheartening. so far this kwr quarter we've sn the opposite happen. we've seen strength throughout the day and in the last hour we've seen continued strength and we closed near the highs of the day. i think that's one of many factors that keeps us encouraged about the broader market here. investors are willing to hold overnight into weekends, into a long weekend like today. so i think that tells you that investors have an appetite for stocks and getting back to the meme rally that we were just talking about, investors have an appetite for stocks by what you're seeing there in some of those names, but in the broader market overall, people want to be invested in this market and they're looking for individual

stock ideas for capital gains. >> we also turn to you for some of the seasonal statistics on the market and the historical trends how did may stack up, and what do you see for june? and how is 2021 overall for following some of these patterns >> so i think may was a middling month. you saw strength in the s&p 500, ma modest strength. you saw modest weakness in the nasdaq june historically is one of the weakest months of the year but the thing with the market is strength begets strength so when the s&p 500 isup 10% o more year to date heading into june, that's when you tend to see the strongest returns in june so that's an encouraging aspect. the takeaway for may is just to keep up with your plan we've seen such a shift in tone and sentiment towards the market and towards themes that investors try to follow the headlines are on a road to ruin

if you're just looking at the headlines and investing based on them we have to extrapolate what's going on down the road. >> paul, if people are looking to pick up some of the tech pullback of late, which is your preference >> i think one name that looks really interesting to us is amazon it's traded in the range of about 23% over the last 200 trading days going back to late last summer. that sounds like a pretty wide range. for amazon, that's one of the narrowest ranges in the stock's history. there's only been four other times where it's had that narrow a range over that period of time when you're dealing with a stock like amazon which is just growth, growth, growth, those periods of pause where the stock is range bound act as a recharging of the stock. following those four other periods with this similar type trading range, six to 12 months later it was significantly higher every time.

>> paul hickey, thank you very much. >> thank you have a great weekend, everybody. let's sending it back to mike santoli for a look at how this bull market compares to history, mike. an eoldie and a goody. >> this is a couple of different ways to slice this market. this one is from credit suisse and essentially they have an array of tactical indicators about how the market has been behaving, how investors are positioned once it has hit an extreme of being a little overheated and the market overbought, they date that as the beginning of this chart. so this shows what happened after you first reached that extreme. these are the instances. it's a busy chart but really it's more about the overall picture of the trending of how this tends to go from january 11th this is the average right here, the white one. what it tells you is you tend to flatten out and have some giveback in the trend but not fall apart january of 2018 was the one

example that did actually have a little bit of damage done. but right here we're sort of running more or less in line with the average so it shouldn't surprise you if things chop around a little bit more of course 2011 was a good instance this is a totally different way of looking at things from the low, the lows are synched up there this is showing how bull markets act. this is a current example. extremely strong, powerful strong, breadth in thismarket. it sustained itself for a while. what's interesting is this is the average of all bull markets. the white is the bull markets that lasted two or more years. if it's broad appeared stays broad, they tend to be more durable bull markets if you talk about a short bull market having begun in march of 2020, what are we into it, 14 months or something like that, 15 months. that would tell you that there's

a little more to go based on this indicator, if nothing else. >> so all your charts together, mike, it's an important question because we always hear the cycle has been extremely short. >> yes. >> and maybe we're mid-cycle morgan stanley equity analyst tells us we're mid-cycle already. based on all the historical data, where do you think we are? how many more years or months could we be looking at for a bull market >> i think it's mid-cycle economically the stock market has this bizarre blending of early cycle forces in terms of the power of recovery and the leadership sectors but late cycle valuations and sometimes sentiment time things when you see this retail nuttiness. so it's very difficult to read in terms of the outright behavior in terms of the trending trend, it nets out to being positive and probably not over particularly soon. >> mike santoli, thank you very much. hawaiian holdings, shares are down today but the stock is

up more than 40% so far this year up next in our summer unmasked series, the airline's ceo on the strong demand for summer travel and the big bonuses the company is paying to find workers amid the labor shortage. plus gasoline prices hitting a seven-year high. coming up the co-founder of the oil price information service on what is driving these higher prices and how long they could last

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welcome back air travel set to surge this holiday weekend. aaa expecting nearly 2.5 million americans to take to the skies a 577% increase from last year the surge follows the tsa screening 1.9 million passengers last sunday, its highest number since the pandemic began hawaiian holding among the airlines that could see a boost from the recent demand that recently launched nonstop services between honolulu, orlando, austin, ontario and also california. joining us now for our summer unmasked series is hawaiian airlines ceo peter ingram. thanks for joining us, peter good to see you again. tell us what you're seeing in terms of demand. how much has it picked up? is it for the immediate months or going more into the winter into next year, and is there a

sort of regional tilt where in north america the pickup in demand is coming most of all from >> we've really seen demand pick up across our network between the u.s. mainland and hawaii we're really back to a more normalized level of demand booking started to pick up in january and accelerated through the first quarter and that's continued through to today yesterday we carried more passengers yesterday than we have at any day since the pandemic began affecting us last march, so things are really moving on the domestic side. and bookings are now resembling the normal booking curve of people planning their trips further out, so a lot more consumer confidence with vaccinations continuing to move forward. >> how easy is it for you to meet this pickup both in terms of planes, but also staff?

>> yeah, our planes are ready to go we've got no shortage of that. we've got a couple of our small planes we use for the neighbor islands still in short-term storage, but that is not curtailing what we can fly today. in terms of staff, we're in good shape for most of the operation. we do have some staffing needs in our airport organization and are working to address those and make sure we've got people on staff to be able to serve our guests we're looking forward to -- it's a much different problem than we had a year ago at this time in terms of figuring out how we handle the increasing demand as opposed to shrinking our operation. so we'll take these problems >> what about international travel, how big of a chunk of your business is it? i know the u.s. just put a stronger warning on japan and that is a huge source of tourism

demand for hawaii. so how much is that hurting, and do you see anything changing there? >> that's the biggest missing piece for us right now is international travel demand and being pacific oriented, japan is the largest international source of visitors for hawaii and the biggest part of our international network with 25% of our revenue before the pandemic international is still down 95% range in terms of traffic numbers. it has to do with the restrictions in those markets. unfortunately, japan and korea, australia, new zealand, which are the important markets for us, are still well behind where the united states is in vaccinations we think it will be a number of months yet before we really see demand accelerate. but i'm encouraged with the pace of u.s. demand when conditions

improve and vaccinations spread. i think we could see a similar surge in international travel when things begin to open up >> are you in any way fearful, peter, that this pickup in demand on the u.s. side is going to be a one-off, it's a sort of splurge has people unleash having been cooped up for a year but it could drop off quite quickly into next year >> that's not what i'm expecting at this point. at least in our business that is very leisure oriented, i think, you know, we've seen a steady grind of leisure demand in cruising over time i expect that this is just a returned to the long-term trending of strong demand. so i'm not concerned as i've heard some carriers talk about a fall-off in the fall but i think other carriers pivot in the fall to more of a business-oriented travel and that's really not the makeup of

our customer base. so i'm expecting things to continue to be strong as we go forward. >> so with this increased demand, we've seen carriers increase the number of places they're going. southwest just added three new cities to hawaii i know we've talked about this issue with you before, but how much of it is a competitive threat for you when demand increases now, more people just move in to try to take a piece of that tourism business >> we've always had a very competitive market that's certainly something that has been reflected by southwest and others that have increased capacity to hawaii over the past several months but we're really built for competition. we served hawaii for 91 plus years now and we think we know this market better than anyone and really tailor our service to serve our guests better than anyone else, so we're confident about our ability to do that i would say again, i would much

rather be dealing with competition for strong demand than dealing with what we were last year when there was no demand at all. >> peter, thank you. it's always good to talk to you. peter ingram from hawaiian holdings. >> thank you have a good weekend. >> you too. time now for a cnbc news update with rahel solomon. >> here's what's happening at this hour. an iowa farm worker has been found guilty of murdering a college student who vanished while out for a run in 2018. after just seven hours of deliberation, the jury found him guilty of stabbing molly tibbits. tonight on the news why the case is more than just about murder and why the sentence is already decided. bill cosby has been refused parole after refusing to participate in sex offender programs during his three years in prison for his sexual assault conviction he also refuses to acknowledge wrongdoing

ca cosby calls the refusing appalling. mailing letters will be more expensive. the post service proposing a three-cent increase in the cost of a first class stamp bringing the price up to 59 cents. in florida, crowds are piling into theme parks ahead of the memorial day weekend some p including disney's epcot center and universal studios, which is oewned by cnbc's paren, comcast. wilf, we've got to get you out to have funnel cake. >> a bit of candy floss, what do you call it, cotton candy. although the head of your park has gone very healthy with the food. >> he said they still have fries and cotton candy but they have -- >> i imagine it does very well. >> but they made the food court a little more gourmet. he said millenials want it i know, i like the junk. >> rahel, thank you very much. always ready for some cake, whatever funnel it's been down.

the summer box office officially kicks off this weekend, but will people really get off their couch, stop their streaming and head to the movie theaters maybe for some popcorn, another great snack. we will have a preview of what to expect. and as we head to break, here is a check on the biggest winners and losers in the dow this month what if you could have the perspective to see more? at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. ♪♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challenge. today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead. we are morgan stanley.

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welcome back let's talk oil tom closer is able to join us. tom, very good afternoon to you. thanks for joining us. >> hi, wilfred, how are you today? >> pretty good pretty good, thank you so what is your medium to short-term outlook given summer demand pickups and the sort of odd activity we've seen in the last month >> you know, i think we're going to see higher prices this weekend, memorial day weekend, than we're going to see father's day or july 4th. what i'm worried about is where the prices are in july and august, because we do have a problem in the supply chain with not enough drivers we know what happens when we have hurricanes. and there is a propensity for crowd behavior that's a little bit unruly or unreasonable that i think should frighten everybody this year. so a good start to thedriving season be aware that there's a lot of

cheerleading on wall street about how boisterous people are going to be out there and so forth. it's a little bit of a false start. you know, we probably get a little give back in prices in june, but then july and august could be problematic >> what about the supply side? >> on the supply side, you know, measured against -- we're in pretty decent shape unless we go up and break the records that we set from 2016 to 2019 for gasoline demand. we normally use about 400 million gallons a day or somewhere in the mid-9 billion barrels a day. we're okay with that as long as we don't get an interruption refineries have extra gasoline in their pocket in terms of extra production but if people regard this like they did toilet paper and they start acting with what i call petronoia then we've got problems so i'm worried about

the behavioral aspect more than i'm worried about the price of crude or typical supply and demand >> tom, what about the six-day closure of the colonial pipeline are we totally through that? have there been any important lessons learned to prevent something like that happening? >> we'll see if the lessons are learned. they're having some i.t. issues today in terms of making things on the pipeline. it's an incredible artery for the east part of the country a lot of the places served by colonial pipeline in the southeast probably are the places that are most likely to see lower prices in june but then in july and august, again, an early hurricane has dramatic consequences this year. >> tom, does the size of the fiscal package that gets passed by the biden administration impact oil prices for the rest of this year is that a big swing factor >> i'm not so sure

i mean there's some macro winds and macro winds have suggested that maybe it would go up to above $70. certainly goldman sachs has their $80 call there was a bank today suggesting $100 in a few years because of the esg concerns and the decarbonization of the fuel we use i think, and i hate to say this because it's anathema, we're kind of fairly valued right now on the crude oil side. maybe a little bit high on gasoline and probably a little too much speculative money in crude oil, gasoline and diesel at the moment. >> a lot of people are going to probably be taking driving trips this weekend, tom. thank you very much for the rundown. >> not at the jersey shore it's weather to grow mushrooms this weekend. >> all over new york, unfortunately. >> unfortunately >> do mushrooms need a little water? >> i guess so. >> i trust tom on that more than either of us. >> cold and rainy. still ahead, beyond meat

bouncing back in a big way this week after a recent pullback we'll look at what's behind the fake meat rally coming up. as we head to break, a check on the biggest winner and loser in the s&p 500 this month. ♪ i wish that i knew what i know now ♪ ♪ when i was young... ♪ you need a financial plan that fits the way you want to live in retirement. a plan that can help grow and protect your money - now or in the future. with an annuity in your plan to help cover essential expenses, you'll have the freedom to live the retirement you want. this is what an annuity can do. find the right financial professional to show you how. learn more at protectedincome.org.

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hollywood has a lot riding on a box office comeback this summer up next we'll look at how new viewing options and shortened release windows could impact the industry. here's a check on the biggest winners and losers in the nasdaq 100 this month. overall the nasdaq had a down month, down 1.5% cal: we' aved oud now we get to spend it our way. val: but we worry if we have enough to last. for retirement planning, investment advice, and more, look for a cfp® professional. cfp® professionals can help you craft a complete financial plan that gives you confidence today and tomorrow. find your cfp® professional at letsmakeaplan.org. cal: our confident forever plan is possible with a cfp® professional. ♪♪

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70% of u.s. movie theaters are now open and hollywood is facing a big test as the summer box office season kicks off this weekend. julia boorstin looks at what's at stake for the streweekend. >> it's whether people are excited to get back into theaters and how consumers respond to streaming options both films are distributed with a different strategy than the traditional 90-day window between when films are released theatrically and then made available at home. paramount's "a quiet place ii quotes is expected to bring in $40 million from the domestic box office through monday. it will be in theaters 45 days before it's available streaming to paramount plus subscribers. disney is releasing "cruella"

simultaneously for an additional $30 fee to subscribers it's unclear how that will impact its box office take international box office results have been promising recently last weekend universal's film bought in $160 million from eight international markets with 85% of that revenue coming from china. so that film opens here in the u.s. on june 25th and it is yet another example of the many films that are due out later this year. it is those films that are designed to get people into theaters. >> so "a quiet place," not a chance, scary movies, never. cruella looks awesome and i do want to see that my question for these types of films. are we now into the list of films, julia, where they are releasing their biggest blockbusters that they have been delaying for the past year or are they still to come a little bit later when perhaps people are even more happy about going back to these places

>> wilf, i think you're far more the target demographic for "a quiet place ii" than "cruella. but "quiet place ii," they wanted to open it this weekend because they thought it would have the biggest impact this weekend really between those two films is designed to be the weekend that opens up the summer box office and opens up the box office in general post covid it will be really interesting to see how these new release strategies play out. for "quiet place i" about 95% of that box office was in the first 45 days. so maybe shortening it from 90 to 45 won't impact that take too much, but we shall see >> julia, if you look at all the hardest-hit industries from covid-19, travel and hotels and restaurants, cruises, we're bringing them on and they're so bullish and seeing such strong demand what do you hear from the movie theater industry are people coming back

is that demand there with the big change in landscape around streaming. >> look, we've been talking to analysts and the early numbers are promising but it's been hard to tell because the big films have not been in theaters yet. this weekend is the first time there's an event film, a must-see film. then in the coming weeks when you have big blockbusters, the kind you want to see on a huge screen with noise and people around you, that's the real test of consumer demand unlike other things like restaurants, it's been kind of hard to tell if people are going to want to come back now that you have that 70% of theaters open, you're in different districts with different rules around masking, i think it will be a really telling weekend to see where things go. but, sara, it seems like so far there is pent-up demand. there are some people who will never go back to theaters because they are used to watching things at home and others who may go back more. >> julia boorstin. julia, thanks.

wilfred has been back. >> five or six times already. >> i'd rather socialize with people. >> i don't >> that makes us different. up next on the show, beyond meat soaring this week, up nearly 40% since monday. find out what's behind the boom and whether it can last. and may is whether it can last. may is asian-american pacific-islander and we've been spotlighting contributors and on air reporters and anchors here's "new york times" reporter, edly. >> you always have to speak up you're seeing racism, a slight, not just against yourself or other asian-americans but against any minority group, speaking out and having alliship with fellow people of color is incredibly important and necessary for the future

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kate. >> beyond meat picked up a big move on monday moving from $100 to $130 per share which since surpassed. the firm doesn't think broken is a growth story even as pandemic impacted the food service business globally it noted organic growth in q2 and expects food service channels to rebound as mobility continues to improve. also with partnership with yum brand and mcdonald's will impact its business in 2021-22. the company announced a spicy beef wrap in china earlier in the week week to date the stock is up 36%, marking the best weekly gain in a year analysts do seem divided on beyond eight holds. five sells five buys. beyond meat has moved into the top 20 mentions on wall street bets back to you.

>> thank you up next, wall street look ahead, key things every investors need to watch including the main jobs report sunday don't miss the premier on the cnbc documentary on 1921 tulsa race massacre on wall street sunday at 00 o2:n cnbc and streaming on peacock out of here? ah ha. we've got you. during expedia travel week, save 20% or more on thousands of hotels. expedia. it matters who you travel with.

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the markets close on monday for memorial day but tuesday kicks off another big week for earnings and economic data, hp, zoom, lulu and -- on tuesday -- and may auto sales and thursday ism index friday jobs report expecting 674,000 new jobs which would be a huge improvement. final thoughts mike, pretty decent month when you consider the challenges we face to come out on top s&p is not to be sniffed at. >> right, kind of absorbed 4% pull back and different waves, a

lot of flair up inflation concerns, so, yeah, itdid hold together pretty well i think you can call it resilient. the stuff you mentioned netflix week will be netflix week -- pretty macro week. gdp is not necessarily what's going to happen but is obviously way, way, way above trend and still have to have a check with the numbers coming through for may to see if it's still tracking. >> and johns a huge question mark. >> yeah. >> after the weakness last month was blamed on labor shortages and tightness and factors like higher unemployment benefits and people needing to stay home with their kids not sure much of that is cleared up this month. >> not yet unemployment rate is forecast to get below 6% see if it does and if those issues have any more clarity. >> well s&p 500 did end higher

for the month and nasdaq ended lower. that does it for "closing bell" on this friday we also want to say have a very good and safe memorial day weekend and especially on memorial day we want to thank and honor all our veterans, especially those who have passed we mourn all of the great women and men who served this country. have a great weekend, everyone "fast money" begins right now. i'm melissa lee and that is "fast money" tonight's trader lineup guy adami, tim seymour, steve grasso and guest trader courtney dominguez, senior wealth advisor paying capital management tonight on fast may be breaking balling out the barbecue for the holiday. but the coming crash in bitcoin and shares of boeing giving back gains, a cause for concern or opportunity to get in. wwe we have we have a bonus hour of fast, the hot list, biggest trades of the week you will