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tv   The Exchange  CNBC  June 1, 2021 1:00pm-2:01pm EDT

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all time highs, i seeanother 25% higher do fnot get out. >> thank you for that. josh brown, the reformed broker. >> alphabet rampage is not over yet. i'm staying with this one to echo joe's point i think it's important >> thanks for watching "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. here is what's ahead this hour the summer set up. the past few weeks have seen stocks return to near all time highs and the small caps are on their longest monthly winning streak since 1995. are we headed for more of the same or another surprise consumer are flocking back to theaters as some highly anticipated movies hit the stream and stocks like amc are popping as their fortunes revive is the box office back the retro active capital gains tax hike we'll look at fall out for investors especially those in crypto
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seem a seema has numbers for us >> taking up in the month of may. good afternoon here is where we stand three hours left in trade. first trading day of june. you can see stocks are off the highs of the session but what is getting a lot of attention is the mood we're seeing in the oil market highest level since 2018 optimism building around the summer driving season. u.s. gasoline, demand jumping nearly 10% on sunday the highest since summer of 2019 that's prompted the big move that we have seen in the oil producers and refiners marathon oil, devon energy up double digits now. nearly 13% what's also working today for the bulls, goldman sachs, jpmorgan goldman sachs, best performing stock on the dow the stock is up big.
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up about 24% it is worth noting the company has struggled with competition from amazon to google and prior to this deal being announced it was trading below its ipo price. the big winner here, carl icon owns about 18% >> it's first day of june. it's going been calmer few weeks for the markets but will it continue as prices surge and labor and supply shortages get worse. michael is here with the summer set up for stock >> the summer set up was a sideways spring. it's been kind of firm but quiet or maybe indecisive. this point here in mid-april when it started to flatten out we're about at those levels wr reached. earnings came up 50% 25% points better than expected. you had inflation concerns talk about tax hikes down the
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road 60% of all stocks are higher since then it seems more like traction than not. you have some seasonal patterns that come into play on june. june on net has been a net negative month it's more many the back half and more cenrecently market tends to do a little bit better quiet markets tend to be stronger >> are you watching what's going on in crypto traders are talk about there's been a triple bottom in the price of bitcoin you came in with stocks super strong and bit coin lost its gains and the s&p and nasdaq
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went negative. >> there's a bit of an echo. it's tough to say which is leading, which is lagging and whether they matter day-to-day. >> that's a good point we are 50% off the highs for bitcoin. we're at all time highs in the market for stocks. mike, thank you. less volatility, more vaccinations and new leadership, could that be what the market needs or will price hikes spoil the fun? welcome to both you have jason, what do you think will keep working as we get into
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june, july and august? >> one thing that's pretty clear is that financials are really benefitting from a couple of secular and cyclical tail winds. we're over weight there. europe is kind of us from an opening perspective. a balanced portfolio >> you like europe you like some of the semiconductor place and the financials as well allen, what about you? >> my view is a little different. i think every one is talk about a reopening. i think what we're going to see is sort of a hybrid of covid life and pre-covid life. i think folks will be staying home from work and some of the things that they got accustomed
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to doing, they will continue doing. i like peleton it's pulled off a ton this year especially because of the recall of the tread but because this notion that if the economy is reopening, people are going to ditch their at homew work outs i agree. i think there's huge value in the stock. i think the company has a cult following. people that use peleton are addicted to it jason, i saw you nodding do you have a peleton bike >> i do. i do have a number of things to work out at home i thought he said telecom and that's an interesting trend. we're on different sides of the coin >> you wouldn't be a buyer of peleton. we talked about europe tell me about that >> again, i think there's a couple of dynamics in play here that we have seen over the course of the last year.
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for us, names like taiwan semi are really interesting on the flip side, i really would be cautious on some of the very china centric names. just because what you're seeing is what we will see in 6 or 12 months from the fed. >> most of the price will reverse. the lumber literally grows on trees. alan, i was going to get your perspective as well. i think you're more hesitant about how strong part of the economy will be this year. what is your take on the kind of inflation supply constraint story and how will that impact stocks >> i think inflation is a big
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thing to be worried about for sure i think it's probably a bigger concern for fixed income than equities i think equities are a great hedge against inflation. i'll tell you some of things that we're doing for clients one, we're looking at residential real estate reits. there's an i shares etf that we like rev that owns a lot of names like public storage and av avalon bay if you want to fight inflation, you need to be inflation friendly we think realize is one. gold another and maybe some of these crypto currencies. we're talking to clients about ink incorporating crypto into their portfolio to a really small percentage >> a lot of the retail investors who have been in crypto are trying to figure out strong demand might be. i would call you the
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institutional side would you go into bitcoin or ether or you name it all these different type of cryptos right now. is there a price you're looking into it is a portfolio construction strategy tell me about that >> great yes it's all about value what's been a big theme of 2021 is the mainstream, focus on crypto currency from corporate cfos to not just the folks that are -- the teches. as you start to see more cfos adding crypto to their balance sheet and coin base ipo. they could be bought by a bank one day. this is a trend that's not going away i think the idea this bitcoin is down so much recently, perfect buying opportunity
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going down a bunch that i believe in long term >> a lot of people like things that are going up in price coming up, we're pulling back the curtain on amc today. the stock is surging after murn doubling just last week. between the reddit trade, reopening of theaters, they have a ton of tail winds now. is it worth the high valuation that's up 13% this year. we'll dig into that. stay with us
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welcome back the summer box office kicking wu off with a bang. paramount made $3 million in just first days of the opening weekend. the box office overall took in nearly $100 million in ticket sales over the four day weekend. theaters are cashing in too. amc shares a soaring today in box office bullishness and on the $230 million share sale they are 20% over $31 a share but can all of this last let's welcome in brett he is executive film and media
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editor welcome to both of you i just want to start with the stock itself is amc justified at over 30 buck a share after the latest offering >> it's not based on fundamentals you have a lot of the momentum driven by retail investors who are not necessarily looking at the fundamentals the current share price suggest it should be creating at mid-20s times consensus 2023 ebitda where it's traded between 7 and 9 times that we think it's well over priced but don't think it will come back to fundamentals if retail i v -- investors maintain this. >> would you say amc has taken advantage of the run up in its share price to shore itself up financially. has it bought itself time or is the return of people to the box office tell you this company is worth more than people thought
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>> i think that opportunistic. they have done a great job of sharing sells at this elevated price. they've paid down some debt. they are looking at now purchasing some additional theaters to boost ebitda i still don't think it's worth where it's trading right now if you look at fundamentals. they are take advantage of where the share prices is trading these days >> where do you think this is all headed as amc rerovives and figures out how to survive and thrive once we get through this unique period? >> it's definitely good news that quiet place two had such a strong opening as well as the cruella did well despite the fact it was available for rental on disney plus i think when you look at amc's financials, you know there are some major questions here. they have of their last quarter over 5 billion dollar worth of
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debt they are still losing money. there's some major questions about how fast the box office will be able to recover from what has been over a year of closures, capacity restrictions and skiddish audiences >> i want to pick up on that for a moment as people get back into the theaters and we go from being excited to $100 million weekend to demanding one what's priced into the theaters? what will they do to survivor in this netflix world even amc has done some restructuring revenue share with streaming. >> i think what's -- the landscape post-pandemic is fundamentally altered from the one pre-pandemic you look at windows, which is the industry term for the amount of time that movies are exclusively in theaters and they have been cut in half. at best they will probably be
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about 45 days before major films will go to home entertain mment f platforms and that could cut into a film's box office performance. there's more competition in the streaming space. you have disney plus, hbo max, you have paramount plus. i think in the short term people are eager to get out of their homes and will probably buy movie tickets but over the longer term, maybe convenience will win out >> we know one of the shareholders of amc made its statement telling amc is over valued we have a 5 billion debt load on about a 15 billion dollar mark cap after this run up. how will they be able to service that debt and get back to heal t -- healthier company to get back viable to the future that brent is describing? >> that's a great question i think they will do more at the market
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shared sales since the price is so elevated. as long as it stays elevated, they should sell more shares and repay their debt balance as much as they can. i think that should be priority over purchasing new theaters as long as they can repay a significant amount of debt, they can get to some growth we think optimistically 2023 box office can get returned to 2018, 2019 levels. optimistically which shorten the windows. you have the balance of big blockbusters staying in theaters a little longer. on the other end you have smaller films that would have gone direct to streaming now potentially playing in theaters in a shortened window. the theaters will get that revenue where as they would not have otherwise >> that's a great point. this year could still be down 20%. a ways to climb out of this
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hole brent thank you for joining me as we kocontinue to watch amc shares up. crude oil has been crushing in we'll talk about the price action with an 11% gain of multi-year high in sight as we inch closer to $70 a barrel. we'll tell you what's behind the oil boom and what opec is up to next we're back in a minute
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welcome back we had a strong activity to the morning. things have tapered off this afternoon. some are watching crypto which has led us one way or the other. bitcoin has been sliding a bit we are seeing pressure across the market the s&p is down by six and the dow is hanging onto a 23-point gain we're up 319 points at the highs. shares of abbot labs are on pace for the worst day since last march. demand for covid-19 testing starts to wane abbot is negative for the year it could see its 7th week of decline. that would be the longest losing streak since 2016. shares of beyond meat are getting hit after notching their best week in a year. they were up 36% last week but were down about 6% today they are also on pace to break the longest daily win streak since last october a lot of reversals today it's smooth sailing for the cruise stocks with gains of more
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than 2% from carnival, caribbean and norweigan. we're still talking about declines of 30 to 60% from pre-pandemic levels. let's get a cnbc news update >> here is what's happening at this hour. florida has been transgender women and girls for playing on public school sports teams the governor signed the bill into law at a christian academy in jacksonville. the move comes on the first day of pride month legal challenges are almost certain but will there be boycotts look at this broadening front of the culture wars on the news with shepard smith president biden setting a meeting with a key republican negotiator to try to hammer out a bipartisan deal on infrastructure spending. he's expected to meet senator shelly tomorrow. the administration set a monday deadline to try to hammer out an agreement. take a look at this video. can you tell what this is between these two buildings?
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here it is that will be the glass swimming pool suspended 115 feet above the ground it's open. the 82 foot long pool is billed the first of its time. i guess it depends on where you literally stand. some people think it's pretty cool other who is are afraid of heights may not. >> it's cool and terrifying. it took me a second to see what i was looking at and i can stopwatching the legs dangling in the air >> it's pretty cool because from below you can see the people so you can see from below pretty cool shot of the city as well very high. >> it's a marvel i don't think i'm going any time soon thank you. crude is hitting its highest level since october of 2018 as opec and allies reconfirm a gradual production increase through july it's a good bring brian sullivan is ere lie is price increase boosting
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prices today >> welcome you just talked about beyond meat. the united states is on the rise you have more people driving everybody bought cars during the pandemic we're seeing mass transit down two million people getting on plane. in some cities traffic is above where it was pre-pandemic because nobody is riding the subway or bus. they are driving that 1998 hon d -- honda accord they bought supply is still fairly mute d even in face of inkraesi ingincg demand u.s. producers not increasing
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capital spending instead of drilling new wells, they are getting money back to shareholders that's help supply growth slow down opec has done something amazing. they have stuck together under the leadership speaking of opec, meeting today, virt virtually. opec does plan to gently, put the oil back on the market i did have a chance to ask about the relationship with the u.s. a and whether or not he plans to speak with u.s. department of energy secretary >> yesterday we show each other the setting which has to do with mission innovation
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there's nothing prevent us from reaching out to each other when ever there's any reason to each out to each other. >> you see the virtual meeting it's like a giant holiday square opec style we tried to press him on supply. he wouldn't go there with oil's rise, the stocks have done well. maybe not as well as you might expect listen to this the xle etf is up. tom lee and others have pointed out the gap between oil and where the stocks are is still wide the last time oil was here, 68 buck a barrel, the xle was trading around $70 it's now $54 with oil the same
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price. everybody has burned that they won't take chance on that sector it's this weird gap between oil and oil stocks still doing well but not as well as you might have thought. >> sure. you think they are meeting they are talk about more supply coming online. typically that's not a great environment for oil prices why is wti still spiking is it just because there's still such a sense of not enough supply to meet the level of demand or passenger figures that you cited. i know some of these been a ceiling here i guess that's the real question is whether we get up to or through that level >> even if we're wrong it comes back on the market, gets a deal. you heard goldman sachs and others say they think the market can easily absorb the extra demand covid cases are down 90% from the high
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the third biggest oil user in the world. india thank goodness their covid cases are falling. there's an optimism about the global boom. not just in the u.s. and i understand our big push to evs here but let's be clear. you'll have a lot of combustion engine even with increase supply, increase demand will trip that the pig majors want to give the money back to shareholders rather than put it in a hole in the ground literally which is burn capital for a better part of a decade. >> increase production that way. it's fascinating appreciate it very much. the latest robinhood litmus test bullish and the lamp that spies on kids study habits it's all coming up in today's rapid fire and it's right after this
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welcome back let's catch you up on a couple of stories it's time for rapid fire
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kate roger is here as well as steve grasso i know you know the lacrosse reference we're making we'll roll right along into sofi share offense the fin tech company are up around 8% in their first day of trade open door tanking by 50% kate, he's getting a lot of heat on twitter these days as well. chamath is becoming like a m mama -- madonna-esque first name type person. >> this is the latest company,
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it walks like bank it's a lot like a brokerage firm yet it trades like a tech firm it resemble aztec tech company. sofi is benefitting from that. they are a mobile platform and a one stop shop. deridre asked if was worried he didn't give an answer there there's a risk people are pricing into sochl thme of thesc deals. >> steve, what's your take on this i know you have been a fan of virgin at times.
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how would you boil this down >> i recently invis invested inn galactic i watched the trade up to almost $60. asold bit not around the highs i sold a bit around the middle ground i'm still long on a decent chunk of it. when he told shares, it plummeted dramatically in the business and as long as i've been on the street you know there's a couple of rules to live by. there's plenty of reasons people sell stock it could be family planning, divorce. trust, anything. there's only one reason why people buy stock you don't want to get caught up too much in it.
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these are companies that make money. i'm in stem which is the first artificial battery storage company. these are companies that have have a bright future aahead of them the biggest take away is you have to look under the head. look at the blaens sheet and look at the companies as individual names i think that's the take away >> when are we expecting robinhood to make its debut? >> some point this summer. it hasn't dropped yet. that's first step and after that it sbhhould be about a month after. i would say early summer these s1 targets move all the time we are on high alert we're ready but no worry >> we're waiting let's move along and talk about the honest company a clutch of bullish initiate
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we're up about 4.5% today. morgan stanley, city and jeffreys see high growth potential for honest the four firms are a buy or with an overweight citing their margin expansion the loyal following, the jessica alba premium on the brand. we see the analyst on the street enthusistic for ipos no matter what price performance i wonder if arguments will carry weight over time or if honest will become just another consumer brand >> i think what you mentioned about the jessica alba premium and her being a prominent and great spokeswoman for her own brand is really key here every analyst mentioned it they mentioned her physical millions of followers. she wears the products the cleaning products are resonating people buying those.
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she's a mom of three she's got a lot of sbcelebrity o friends. clearly all the firms see it as a win for right now. it makes it a bit of different from a traditional spokesperson not tied in the brand. he's wearing all the products. she looks beautiful. at least got this beautiful family she's showing off online. i think that's working >> it's high stakes if she -- i'm sure she's past the happiness stage but the stock price is practically a risk. we talked so much about ipos cloudera was a great ipo but it's been a tough stock for years now. tech is a moving target. whether it's the honest company or peleton or sofi the first day of trade is not the whole story. that was such a highly anticipated tech
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they don't always pan out. >> when you look at this, i always make the comparison and people talk about and bring it back to spacs. honest traded up to just below 24 every one gets dragged into the story. they buy it on ipo day then the stock comes back down coinbase, we saw the same thing happen there 250 up to $430 now back down. it's round trip. when people look at the spac investment versus traditional ipo, spac investment are the only way for the retail player to play on st same footing with the large institutions they chase tech for years.
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they never been involved in a rising rate environment and you don't invest in tech in a rising rate environment it's been sort of flat lining. that's the only reason tech is performing now >> that's really sbretsing point. also makes me think about the robinhood time line we were discussing they almost have to have -- it's forecast interest rates and thinking about price hikes as they think about the time of the ipo as well. maybe we'll know more many the fall speaking of which, let's talk about teenagers. they are poised to be some of the luckiest this summer they accounted for a vast majority of newly employed people on last month's job report because of the tight labor market, they are benefitting from higher wages and prime workplace perks as well. kate rogers, i know you see this every single day in the companies you're speaking with it's getting more and more
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ridiculous but these are real stories of like the iphones that mcdonald's in illinois is giving out if you stay on six months. the 500, 1,000 signing bonuses if you're a teen, america's workplaces want you. >> absolutely. when i was a teenager and i worked at dairy queen, the perk was free ice cream now they are getting signing bonuses. there are iphones at certain locations for mcdonald's a lot of restaurant companies are trying to get younger workers in and making them realize they can grow a career at that location we talked about chipotle saying you can reach a general manager there. the highest paying ing one can n in six figures in three years. the teens do seek summer jobs. that's a trend we see every year a will the of these kids are ready to get out and make some money. one interesting thing in the times feature is some of them
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are not willing to go back to school because the pay is so good i don't know that necessarily is a good thing either. ei hopefully they get their summer jobs and get the perks and you want them to get back in school. >> people can work in the day and do zoom school at night for an hour and a half if these perks get better, i'll start looking at these openings. >> it goes back to productivity. maybe have your zoom class open while working at dairy queen they are lucky and useful. seems like we need to change the labor force. >> immigration issues as well. we have to watch the boiden administration for what they will do with foreign workers they need the teens quickly, we want to mention that tiktok parent company bite dance has other products they have a smart lamp that lets parents remotely monitor their children while they study. it comes with two built in cameras and a touch screen to
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assist kids with homework. parent ks hire a human proctor through the lamp it's wildly popular in china when the smart lamp launched last october, families snapped up 10,000 units in first month >> how many other things that you're able to drop in i have amazon. my friends think i'm crazy because i have amazon shows all over my house. can't hire a tutor mo it but i'm sure mr. bbezos is thinking abou how to hire a tutor through it as well. there's no time left to tutor your kids. i have four children it's like an assembly line i coach my kids and we're done with that and we can do homework and it's one after another after. my wife sfis feeding them. i'm tutoring them.
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there's subjects i can't do that she's better at. she does those i stick with number. >> we saw yesterday china moving to a three children -- i think this smart lamp sums up why they will have harder time hitting that three child target. they know it's going to be lard. it's going to take loosening up the policy rules >> people are already rworried about kids using tiktok. i can't imagine this would make my parents feel like -- my sister is a teacher and tryiing to home school as useful as this could be, i don't see american parents adopting this in the way it might be seen overseas >> time will tell. thank you all for joining me still ahead, tesla warning of price hikes due to supply shane chain pressure but they are facing
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china a competitive edge of evs. a look at how auto maker is working to win over tesla's customers in china >> reporter: driving through the city streets can get eeri. his ev start up wants to help change that. it believes out maneuvers tesla's. >> a leader in developing technology will put you in f front. >> reporter: unlike tesla, it's testing high definition maps or laser which helps drivers better
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read the road and makes driving safer. >> tesla focus on using camera only approach. in china they don't have the additional information >> reporter: another upgrade, va lay parking to garage up to two-thirds of a mile or one kilometers away. the plan now is for the most advanced functions to be built into the exact p5 in the hopes of winning over china safety and budget conscious tech savvy consumers. >> it's trying to innovate because of the force of consumers or come pepetitors >> the vice chairman told me that focus on the new technology is really started to pay off
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he said that the p7 which is the st sports sedan which is a direct competitor to tesla model 3 hit a record in may. >> it seems like the partnership with private companies like the parking garage you mentioned or with public transit over here we're deat a timing how much that might be included in the u.s. infrastructure bill to link up the road system and the infrastructure so it can speak to these electric cars if china gets that right, it could give their own home grown auto makers an edge over tesla >> absolutely. here in china, there isn't as much of an open debate about what beijing is going to do at any one time beijing invests very heavily in the ev market. it's one of the reasons why you see that it's leading the u.s. when it comes to ev infrastructure and also when it comes to the supply chain. i think the next step is a lot of these chinese players really focusing now on what they
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consider to be the next step and what really counts most which is competing on technology. >> should we expect xpeng in the u.s. any time soon >> i asked him that question he said that because there is so >> i asked that question he said because there is so much investment in from us. it does provide opportunities as to companies like his. he says it hills to refocus a lot of the emphasis on electric vehicles, so that's good for everyone at the same time storks he said, though, that going to the u.s. would take some time, just because everything is working itself out he said because there is so much focus on evs, the competitors in the u.s. such as is it -- that that couldened of lead to go more competition over here. >> that's interesting. that would suggest that all of this kind of ev race could
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actually end up paying off in terms of our strategy stick placement in all of that eunice, thanks so much good to see you. and cities making a call in the ev space upgrading nio today, they've had a tough year, constituent down about 13% for more, you can read over on cnbc.com/pro coming up anxiety and uncertainty. that's the fallout david solomon sees the details of the plan and what it means for your money, next cnbc's "on the edge" is back all this week. don't miss all the hot takes you can stomach. we're back in a minute to make progress, we must keep taking steps forward. we believe the future of energy is lower carbon. and to get there, the world needs to reduce global emissions.
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welcome back president biden is consideration making his capital gains tax hike retroactive that's causing some consternation in the business community. robert franks has more >> for investors who hope to sell stock this year to avoid a potential capital gains tax
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hike, they may already be too late on the budget officially calling for the increase, from of to 43.4%, would start as of april 28th of this year. so if that passes, and that is a big if, and you sold stocks or business or property after april 28th, ecowe back taxes treasury also giving its it's -- first revenue projections for the tax increase and the elimination of the step up in basis, saying those two combined would generate around $320 billion in revenue over ten years, but only about a billion this year. some ceos and tax groups already lashing out against this possibly retroactive tax david solomon saying it would, quote, create extra anxiety and extra uncertainty. there have been retroactive inkim talk increases before, but
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never a retroactive capital gains tax. treasury saying this was all needed to prevent investors from avoiding the tax by selling assets before it takes effect. the reason they chose april 28th, is that that is the day that biden announced his proposed tax hike, which they say officially put the taxpayers on notice. >> robert, what -- a lot of the retail public who's in stocks and crypto, they're going, wait a minute, what am i going to face in terms of possible tax high >> it's not just that your income that year is a million or more, but the income and the gains combined add up, and anything above that they tax at the higher rate. you may have income of let's say, $400,000, but if you want a crypto gain or tax sale that's
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another $500,000 that will kick in for every dollar above that it's the combination of the income and the gain that will equal a million. >> would the tax rate you go up for people making less than a million or no? >> no, it stays where it is. robert, appreciate it. that does it for "the exchange" today, is it time to worry about the ipo market we'll dig in after a quick break.
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and we can help you build it. but it's what you do with it, that makes life worth living. principal. for all it's worth. good afternoon, everyone welcome to "power lunch. welcome to all of you on this first day of june. markets are heading into summer with lots of optimism. will the sun continue to shine on wall street, or are there dark clouds on the horizon >> we'll also talk about things booking on the strip tillman fertitta telling us las vegas has never been

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