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tv   The Exchange  CNBC  June 8, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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>> kindser morgan. >> general motors. >> mcdonald's. >> we're going back to the restaurants to end it. that does it for us. thank you for watching the show today. "the exchange" starts right now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. this is the exchange here is what's ahead it's about flation, but which kind inflation, deflation have you seen lumber collapse? is the rally over for good or not? a new shock. how a fresh covid out break in china could mean big delays and price hikes for your goods the big theme of the whole show today. let's start with the priets of t -- price of the market. >> i've seen the word list used as well. that kind of describes what's
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going on now major averages trading around a flat line. the dow has been down as much as 177 points earlier in the day. now it's down a mere 13 points so far that was up 28 points as well the s&p. take a look at shares of biogen. one of the worst performing stocks on the nasdaq 100 it comes back after a massive rally that the biotech saw it rise more than 45% in just a week help by fda decision to approve its alzheimer's drugs. several analysts have upgraded stock since that decision but perhaps the excitement has already played out as we see biogen down today. some of the action in the online apparel markets, stitch fix soaring today.
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that could be helping shares of thred up which is up more than 25%. posh mark sitting out that rally with shares down more than 1% today. >> thank you very much lumber was one of the hottest goods on the market this year until recently prices soared week after week too to new highs it all seems to be slowing down now. prices have plunged about 30% from their peak in early may the timber etf aptly named wood is down 10% from its highest materials company, louisiana pacific down about 18% from its highs. kyle little is chief operating officer at wholesaler sherwood lumber the last time we spoke, prices started to fall. what are owe you learning from s
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>> thank you glad to be here. we're not so far off from the level that we talked about about two weeks when we got together we weren't able thoelo hold the previous number. demand has slowed from what we would dean as unsustainable frenzy pace. the backlog after the builder side and the retail side is slowly catching up all be it very slow. i guess we're looking for starts and permits next week to really understand what is going to be in the near future >> does this have you breathing a sigh of relief because in some ways the price spike was worrisome. it was greating some shortages i know you said you hadn't experienced too much of that is it the kpiendslie ma maybe we pulled it too
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quickly. >> a welcome breather to what we have been experiencing for the last six to seven months our forecast, however, really has not changed. we talked about this the last time i was on. we're in month number 12 of what we believe a 24 to 34 month cycle. we really believe the new three year mean will be much, much higher almost two times higher than what we have seen in the previous 20 years. it's going to be well north of what we saw 2018 high which was the most recent high that we have seen in over the last 30 years prior to 2021. >> we're following with such interest also because it seems to be a good leading indicator for the hole whole market and the whole economy. little bit more than you anticipated. can you explain why and where that is coming from? >> well, i think it really goes
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back that we had such huge backlog between permits and starts that were out there builders had probably the largest order file that we ever seen in the last 10 to 15 years. that has had to take time to work itself through the system now the next level of jobs that are soon to be started, the future curve is showing us that price will be a discount at some point in the future. these builders and our customers are savvy. if it doesn't need to be done today, it might be better time to take a breather and start this project later in the fourth quarter and possibly in q1 of 2022 >> final question, if i were speaking to you over family dinner or something like that, this is going to be a theme for the rest of the show would you be saying we're in tough inflationary environment where all prices are going up we're seeing in supplies and labor or would you be saying we're off the boil a little bit and moderating and things are getting better on that front
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what's your feel overall in terms of the entire business and all the different inputs >> i can really only speak to lumber thank you for that question. i would say respected to lumber, we're off the peak prices. the frenzy pace that we want be prepared for prices to be much, much higher than what we have seen for a long period of time and the jobs that you have coming up don't expect us to go back to what we saw the previous ten years. that being said, if you can wait, there's no reason not to we do see some relief over the next 6 to 12 months. still albeit at prices much higher than what we experienced in the cent past >> thank you very much we'll touch base again soon. lumer prices are falling, the cost of everything else seems to be on the rise. the fed is keeping an eye on inflation but deutsche writes it
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could become a big problem inflation will reemerge. neglecting inflation leads global economy sitting, in their words, on a time bomb. joining me is the director of research and macro economics it's good to have you. i'm glad we're able to start with this case study in lumber are you kind of on the deutsche bank side of things that this is taking time bomb >> i think it's going to take a little longer to explode they the quote you read me implies. we had similar monetary policy we lost interest in being the world's gold/dollar reserve currency when you move through
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disinflationary regime which it lasted a long time and has this time as well you move into a reflationary environment. i think inflation is head ld h - heading higher you have your marginal cost ve versus marginal revenue. prices paid versus prices received you also have your fixed costs that don't need to be replaced all that often in the early '60s, earnings growth accelerated even though the market was expensive, returns were good because you had faster earnings
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growth that the part of the stage that we're on the verge of. >> it looks exactly like bob was showing earlier when the second quarter estimates, part of that is the year on year comp they are up 60%. as we move throughout the rest of the year, people keep racing their eps targets and raising the targets. that's powering the market forward now. i want to go back to what you said when we show the deutsche quote, they worried about it becoming a ticking time bomb. you're looking at it happening later than that. what is going to happen between now and nenthen that we can go m $70 an oil to the inflationary situation that everybody will be worried about that sounds like it's not going happen for several years time >> i think it will take some time for the process to unfold make no mistake, i'm in the
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reflation camp the only thing transitory is service sector disinflation. housing, shelter is being depressed by rent moratoriums. you see medical care costs being depressed. use car prices will not rise as fast as they are lumber prices will come down there's some transitory elements to the aggregates for sure the real story was us importing deflation from china as we have this giant global labor supply shock. this increase of more than 120% over 20 years. that piece is going away we're not going to import disinflation you and i talked about this last time i was on, you asked me would consumers pay higherpayin prices that's going to be good news for all the reflationary sectors.
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>> you would be in camp that says no. if they lean against this, they would be acting too soon quickly. >> i'm in the camp they are behind the ball largely because of your previous interview and what's happened with laumber cost, what's happened the house prices having 13% hpi at this point is way too fast we have the huge demographic of millennials forming households the fed should not be buying 100% of net supply of marge backed securities. they shouldn't be buying any at this point >> listen, when we talk to a home builder analyst who said prices will go up 20 to 30% from here which would be crazy to think about but we'll pick that
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up next time thank you for joining me today it's good the see you again. >> thank you coming up, beijing is battling a new covid variant it's posing problems at the port and delays of up to three weeks. we'll dig into this backlog. shares of amc are out performing game stop five to one over the past month. we'll show you how the executives behind each company have taken different paths as they handle their new found popularity with investors. we're back in a moment
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at universal's cabana bay beach resort. to enter just say "universal parks" into your xfinity voice remote, or go to xfinityadventures.com for your chance to win! welcome back china's largest province is bats ling the highly transmissable delta covid variant. it's leading the lock ddowns an problems at the port we have the latest details >> thanks so much. the outbreak is in trading hub near a port that handles one quarter of the chinese goods that ship to the united states the health authorities in the area have been describing the transmiss blt of this new variant as alarming. why? health officials say the early cases can be traced back to a
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restaurant where the patients were not in direct contact and sitting quite far apart from each other much farther than with the original strain, so several meters several of the cases are asymptommatic. most people are saying it's nearly impossible the most worrisome development for authorities is it looks as though several of the cases wou would have been inoculated by the chinese vaccine. that suggests the home grown jabs might not be effective enough against this new strain the authorities were very quick to point out that these illnesses, so far, have not turned deadly but at the same time, they have been causing all sorts of disruptions because as you can imagine the authorities here have been taking very
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aggressive step. some of the most aggressive we have seen since the huwan outbreak and what they have been doing is testing 18 million people in guangzhou in three days they have been sending in thousands of medical workers and now imposing travel restrictions on nearby cities those types of protocols are now having a very negative effect, as you could imagine on the operations of that huge port that i mentioned it handles a lot of goods that ship to the united states. most people should be expecting that we'll see three week delays just because of this covid outbreak as you know, the shipping industry has been already facing a log jam in their industry. >> this delta covid variant is the indian one that's been out
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there sort of infecting people and breaking through some of the vaccin vaccinations here in the u.s., maybe not to the same degree, maybe not yet i do wonder if what you're referring to in term offense a blue print for what could happen again as that potentially spreads. i know a bit in the uk, already and back here in the u.s. especially in those parts of the country that aren't that vaccinated >> reporter: yeah. i'm in beijing we're like a thousands miles away but even here the vaccination centers we were visiting, they were saying a lot of people in the past two weeks or so, once we heard this variant, which as you mentioned which originated from india, highly transmissable, once it pops it up that this is one they are battling with, lot of people were visiting these vaccination
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centers. people are saying i was thinking i was not going to get a vaccine. for the most part the pandemic has been controlled here or i'm going to wait for another vaccine that might be available to me later. now people are jumping at the chance to get vaccinated because they want any protection given how concerning, how concerned the authorities are about how quickly people can get sick from this particular varvariant >> it's great point. >> thank you joining me now is nathan he's ceo of source which connects with factories around the world. is this impact already being felt in the u.s. >> it is we're starting to see a trickle down effect and really there's coming ripple effects with the
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holiday season up and coming a lot of major importers are trying the plan their supply chain for q3 and q4. this will have big effects >> what industries in particular do you think >> right now the main area where this port is affected is mostly home goods, shoes, consumer electronics and other products >> do you think that people will notice this in particular because we're dealing with an economy plagued by price hikes and shortages. i guess not necessarily in some of those categories. what's been crazy is the fright rate from last yooer have spiked significantly. >> what happens if this goes on? it's been a couple of weeks at this point could it stretch on and on
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>> i think it could. i spoke to our team last night and are saying we have to be aware of these port delays lit be a trickle down effect to american companies that imported products but a lot of the costs may be passed down where there may be higher prices this holiday season >> finally, when we talk about freight rates that have been up and yet here is another headache, how much are we talking and what's that likely to translate into. if i'm buying something, what percentage of the ticker price is exposed here? f >> it's a really good question the question of a contntainer ws about $2,000 now it's up to $5,000. it depends on the type of product the businesses are importing.
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>> do they have any alternative? >> try to find a manufacturer in a different location whether it's in another province in china that isn't affected by this covid variant or outside of china. we saw last year a lot of american importers and businesses shifting their supply chains outside of china due to the import risks in terms of covid as well as just trying to void the increase in tariffs >> right tariffs feels like another era ago. that's all adding up to reasons for people to look for alternatives and us to keep in mind in the weeks ahead. thanks very much for joining us. >> thank you coming up, tesla's china deliveries tesla had a good may the stock is down 1% are the stocks good enough to get the stock back to green. it's still down 15%. we'll ask. more flation talk.
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the s&p is positive. here are some of the movers we're watching including clover
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health on pace for its best day ever after becoming today's most mentioned name clover is up 7 1% right now it was halted midday there's plenty of short interest in the company backed by chamath. cloverer shares up 70% today restaurant stocks are on the move with brinker up 5% after bimo priced the target it's interesting to see reddit move the stocks more than the sell side. cheesecake up 7% strong gains for the rest of th restaurant space delta is the top performer in the airlines after getting an upgrade buy. analysts see it climbing 30% delta shares up 2% they are 47 and change now we head over to tyler for our news update.
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>> lot of green to talk about there in stocks today. let's tell you what's happening at this hour the head of the irs telling senators he needs clear authority from congress to collect info on large crypto currency transfers he says crypto currency transactions over $10,000 go largely unreported a man known as the butcher of bosnia will spend the rest of his knife in prison. losing his final appeal before a u.n. court today he was found guilty of general side as former military chief during bosnia's war during the early and mid-1990s. trials are expanding of pfizer and biontech vaccine for kids under 12. pfizer will test dosages far below those used for adults. tonight on news with shep smith, how expanding shots to younger kids will help build
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herd immunity. i'll see you in about 33 minutes. april showers bring may flowers for tesla. retail traders buy and insiders sell out of amc. it's coming up in rapid fire right after this (♪ ♪) whether it's a technology first, (♪ ♪) a fashion first, (♪ ♪) a science first, (♪ ♪) or a first for us all (♪ ♪) whatever you hope to achieve for your business, cloud first helps you get to value...first (♪ ♪) let there be change accenture
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welcome back let's catch you up on a few stories that should be on your radar. it's time for rapid fire here to break down our headlines are steve grasso and cnbc fast money mask less trader, sarah fisher and steve kovak we're going o start with tesla a lot of news. some good and some bad for tesla. let's start after april slump. tesla delivered over 33,000 locally made vehicles in may a 29% improvement according to china's passenger car association. shares were up as much as 3% today. tesla veteran and trucking chief has left the company just three months after taking over that role the stock slipping into the red as the headline has over
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shadowed tesla's china sales what do you think investors are most concerned about with his departure? >> take a step back. tesla has been riddled with executives leaving this is a very quick departure i think this is something that investors should be concerned with if you look at tesla stock and you look at the ten-year yield and look at growth versus value, tesla's growth, right. let's look at the yield. let's look at the inverse correlation to yield for the last couple of months or so. if rates are staying right where they are or moving lower, tesla stock will move higher if past performances anywhere near indicative of future potential i would wait on tesla but if you look at the moving average, it's 606. if you want to wait you can be
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patient. >> we're at like 1.5% in the ten year most people say we can only go higher from here i love the frame work. it's important and overlooked one. putting that aside, let's talk about the company's fundamentals for a moment what would elon musk say about theeds these numbers. the information of the story about how the numbers fall by 50%. now local authorities are reporting a rebound. >> yeah. it's the same thing he's opinion saying about china which is also when these accidents that china has been investigating too and all these protests that we have been seeing, he's been making the claims about full self-driving and so much ambiguity there that people think i can drive this car it's causing these accidents like the one we saw in texas a few weeks ago.
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he would say this is normal. this is expected he would plamblame the supply issues heerp we are they are saying it's not going to come until 2022 or later. in the guy came in and said, hey, it's not working and that's really bad signal for the truck. >> why does the ten-year become more important than the departure and a key product line >> it's a car company. that's the wrong way to do it. it's a technology company. it's a growth company. if you look at why tesla stock took the major hit in the last
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couple of months because the ten-year yield was rising in an uncontrollable fashion if the neyields winds up going lower it's around one spot 5-4 we growth that today that means that growth stocks like a tesla will give a little more freedom to run higher not sideways, not lower. >> so interesting. so much to unpackage there let's talk about the meme stock. those are wondering, ceo has never sold his amc shares.
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sarah, go ahead. just curious >> it is notable to add he's never sold his shares. what's also notable is nobody sold their shares last year. the reason these people are selling is because they don't expect this to last forever. >> you would almost be kriz zi not to sell. the ceo may be a little different story.
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we're looking at this as an opportunity to lock in some gains. >> the stock will continue to go up because the fundamentals aren't there over the past week, he's been kp communicating to his new stake holders. if he wants to sell shares, that goes against the message he has opinion saying all week long continue to buy. for people who are fot spokes people for this company x they're making money >> what's the implication this is his new shareholder base. is that better in the long run >> that's an interesting question this type of retailer doesn't need to be in there for the long haul is it good or bad? the stock is up.
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i cannot blame them too much it's such an extraordinary time for them to be living through. let's move along apple just introduced a bunch of new features engineered to let iphone users communicate it's almost as if apple is laying the ground work to turn its ios 15 into long term work you say it's no longer it could drive facebook ceo mark zuckerberg crazy >> not just crazy. he is angry today. that is because these new features coming to the iphone have a lot of the social features built in that things you would normally do on
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facebook and instra -- ins instagram, the ability when i talk about wall gardens breaking down, the ability to face time someone on an android or windows device that's a huge and significant move and very uncharacteristics of apple basically, apple is giving you less and less of a reason to go to facebook for these social features you don't have to worry about gege i -- getting ads shoved at you. you can do the face chatting and video chatt ting privately on yr phone. that's the stuff that drives mark zuckerberg crazy. he called i message a huge competitor to facebook's products especially as the company is still going through this so-called pivot to privacy where they see kind of a close version of the internet where you have private communication and the open version that we're
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already used to. >> i think of facebook messenger as the texting for people's phone numbers i don't have they have two separate youuti utilities. what else would you add? >> take a look at facebook has migrated its business. there's more people who use messaging apps facebook come bined the messagi apps so businesses can seamseamless ly communicate across them facebook signalled it's a huge part of its future this is a massive dig at it. there's a huge war between apple an facebook that's been brewing. this adds fuel to the fire steve mentioned privacy but it's also hardware. facebook debuted the portal.
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this is another thing that will continue to eat at both companies as they go head to head not just in the hardware services but software services as well. >> steve, are all these reasons to dump facebook stock >> well, facebook always shows you there's a reason to hold facebook stock i'm not a holder of facebook i'm a holder of apple stock and if you look at that services arm, they are moving more and more in that direction it's over 53 billion in revenues from services currently. this is another troreason to bea buyer of apple stock apple is grossly undervalued here i would say i remaiin a buyer >> you like apple, tesla >> i'm not long on tesla i like value but i think we're in that sweet spot where value and growth can work and apple checks both of those boxes
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literally. they're never an innovator they are a perfecter for me, apple stock unless i start seeing my kids ask for a different phone on the hard ware side and the services side still growing, it's grossly undervalued. apple should be a 200 there are stock an it's tradeing in the 120s the new pandemic era is bracelet, a lan yard, a sticker. it's color coded to define your comfort levels these color coded bands signal your preference for social distancing and contact red means stay away. yellow is for people who are on the fence. is there like an opt out all together you don't wear a bracelet. if i wore a color coded bracelet without knowing, am i sending signals into the universe. >> i would never wear a bracelet like that.
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we are not robeots we're people read facial expression and cues. >> if you wear a mask, i think it means people stay away. if you don't show up at work, that's your opt out. i don't think we need a lot of these things if you want an interactive one, you know what i'm going to say, right? >> no. >> apple watch wear the apple watch i'm sure they can come up with a color coded screen to let you know i'm not available for conversation >> steve, where should we expect to see the bracelets in the workplace or more like in a social setting i just can't imagine >> i feel like it's more for the workplace. i haven't seen new in about a year and a half. should i hug you when i'm back in studio. should i shake your hand should i step back and wave? i'm not sure i think the workplace is more. when you see family and friends, of course you will lug them. that's a given >> now it will have to be a big bear hug right in front of the whole studio whuns you get back in here. >> let's do it
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>> thank you still ahead, a loyal retail trader following might be the one thing amc and game stop have in common. the way they approach the shareholder bases is night and day. it's playing out in the stock. we have that story ahead you can watch us live any time using the cnbc app we're back in a minute hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this... your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee... yeah i should've just led with that... with at&t business... you can pick the best plan for each employee and only pay for the features they need. ♪ ♪ we made usaa insurance for veterans like martin. when a hailstorm hit, he needed his insurance to get it done right, right away.
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let's start with adam aron he took over as ceo five years ago. described his tactics as what you expect from a more old school, hospitality executive. putting the customer and investor first he was the ceo of star wood resorts, norweigan cruise lines. he's been reaching out to this group of traders on reddit the movie theater chap in launce its on portal. they have perks like early screenings, free popcorn he's reminding investors a couple of times that they own the company and he works for them now over the ryan cohen. he's about 30 years younger than aron he's the founder of chewy. not the ceo. although he owns about 12% of that company, what he says really goes to game stop he's been face of this company and cohen is not as explicit in
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this outreeach to the reddit crowd. his tweets can be sort of k cryptic. the ice cream cone we have gotten almost no details on that. game stop hasn't taken advantage of this recent to make more money. kelly. >> i think that's a good point you make while the jury is still out on what happens with the stock price of both of these companies, at least amc is saying, fine you'll give us the capital, we'll go out and raise it. why is game stop being more conservative >> it's so interesting every analyst i talk to is c confounded they don't know. they say this would be great thing to raise money to do this turn around.
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why hasn't he done this? it could be they are waiting for new ceo. it's unclear it seems like amc has done this and gotten a lot of praise lie youk mentioned in the lag seg segment, there are insiders seeing this as an opportunity. >> thank you still ahead, global food prices hitting their highest levels in almost a decade. what it means for his businesses and for consumers right after this break the icon that does the same. the rx crafted by lexus. lease the 2021 rx 350 for $449 a month for 36 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.
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announcer: xfinity wants to send you to universal orlando resorts' three incredible theme parks. where you could feel the rush of the hunt on jurassic world velocicoaster, opening june 10th! plus, you'll stay steps away from the action at universal's cabana bay beach resort. to enter just say "universal parks" into your xfinity voice remote, or go to xfinityadventures.com for your chance to win! welcome back a key inflation gauge is sounding alarm bells and could have a big impact on grocery stores it shows food costs reached their highest level in nearly a decade last month, thanks in part to supply and logistics issues
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it's great to have you here, john you're positioned to experience this from the front lines. how much longer do you think it will go on >> it will go on i predicted -- i was wrong, it came now gasoline prices are going up labor prices are going up. that means food prices is going up, because everything is being delivered to the warehouses and the stores by truck, inferring, labor, et cetera, all going up companies are not dumb they have to raise the prices in order to keep track with so-called inflation. i predicted that coming september, october, you'll have an annualized inflation rate of about 5% to 6%
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you know, i argue sometimes that sometimes my economist friends like kudlow and steve moore, but that's going to be the number. >> the question is, how long let's split the calendar into 2022 what does it look like then? can people -- you know the consumer well. can consumers says i'll pay 25% more no, forget it, i can't will it actually hurt the economy? i don't think it's going to hurt the economy, because -- i'm looking at wages going up. i'm looking at minimum wages going up it's an overall -- you know, when the sea rises, everything goes up. i just see inflation, and i also see interest rates, they're not going to stay at this rate i think you'll see higher interest rates by the end of the year
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so, it's concerning, but a lot of people don't realize it yet, but it's happening it's going to happen, it will happen, and everybody has to be aware of it. >> i guess my question is this -- i know i'm asking kind of for some deeper insight, but because you are just so in touch with the consumer, what is this going to do to sort of the living status or quality of americans, broadly speaking? when you tell me food prices are going up, it sounds bad. i get that wages are going up, but which will go up more and for how long i don't get the sense that people are thrilled about higher prices obviously we now it's hard to find people right now, but how will this all shake out? >> at some place it's going to level out, but the other form of secret inflation is shrink-flation in other words, if you're buying
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towels and there are 64 towels to the roll, now it might be 52. people just buy it and don't realize they're getting less if you're buying -- i remember when coffee was 16 ounces, now it's 12 ounces i remember when tropicana was make 64 ounces, now maybe it's 54 ounces. so on and so on. so there's shrink-flation and inflation, the rising prices, and the reduction of product delivered to the consumer. >> you've brought us back to the theme of the show today. it's shrink-flation, we see it in soda bottles and the rest what would you say to policymakers are we trying to solve this problem? is it a good, healthy thing we'll move there >> i just think it goes back to washington and the fact that,
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don't forget america has 100 years worth of oil why are we pushes the public toward electric cars 90% of the batteries for electric cars are made in china. it's making smart moves. why did we cancel the keystone pipeline america has 100 years worth of oil. all the oil would go down the key does that tone pipeline from canada and america, down to the gulf coast, produced by america workers made into gasoline, and distributed in south america and the caribbean. now we shut that down, and what happens? we turn on russia and germany. >> i -- i hate to cut you off, but we're up against a hard commercial break, and we hope you join us soon. >> kelly, thank you very much for having me. >> thank you "power lunch" right after
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