good tuesday good morning. walk to "squawk on the street. i'm scott walker carl and david have the morning off. let's look at futures as the markets react to more economic data ppi a little hotter an expectations the s&p would open a fractional winner, the others you see pretty mixed the road map starts with the inflation watch. the largest 12 month increase on record and boeing airbus in the end of a 17-year dispute. and eu and u.s. end a long-standing fight over aircraft subsidies and shares of amc moving higher again. and petco shares joining the ranks of that volatile trade here we go pip comes in pi comes in little,

retail sales a mix supply chain even -- >> let's just say something. >> the floor is yours. >> if every number is hotter than expected, the conclusion is the people who make the numbers are definitely using ill advised analysis and i'd begin to start thinking what are they -- why is every number hotter than expected? when youand i know, for instance, that it is going to be hot. like who is creating these expectations i was watching joe tsai today >> -- ticket -- >> i just think enough enough we've got stop playing into the hands of people. of course it is hotter than expected it's hot

i don't know who expects that it is not hot. >> well then why then -- >> the market didn't go down -- >> -- everybody making a big deal. >> -- >> -- it's not just -- >> i aptd making a big deal on it. >> -- diamond yesterday. said they are hoarding cash because inflation is probably here to stay morgan stanley, probably not as transitory as people think who is right the so called smart money or the market. >> the market is always smarter than the rich people who opine on it. and the reason is because of what you just slipped? supply chain let's take a look at what dr. gottleib who i'm i think we all believe. in i've never heard a bad word about this man there is now a 16-day delay and a giant city for ports it was a half a day delay. that is going to cause inflation. >> oh in china. >> in china. so dr. gottleib says they are a

much flaunted power, chinese belt -- whatever you want to say. their vaccine is 50% effective against the original strain of which by the way he didn't say this, may or may not have been invented by then, but probably much less against the delta variant. so here we go. i can predict two months from now inflation is going to be hotter than suspect because china t supply chain is being interrupted again. i'm saying jay. >> powell. >> jay powell. but jay. >> you can be on a first name basis. >> looking at all the things and saying guys i told you it was going to run hot i told you that. and it is running hot. >> not only did he tell you it is going to run hot. he told you we're fine with it running hot for a little while. >> i know he'll be heckled by the media. what else does the media do, other than repeatedly say.

the mr. chair, hey jay, jay, why don't you just like face it. you are going to have to break we're gonna break you. jay pow doesn't play that game he's thinking inflation is running hotter because i want employment for people. i want people to have a better life i'm not playing the billionaire hedge fund gamed so the market has to race so they can cover their short. i'm in about the 300 million people who would be hurt about being thrown out after job i'm not worried about the billion nares. this is the first fed chair that threw the book away. why why can't any of these billionaires come in and recognize it. >> diamond is not a hedge fund

manager. -- deals with the people because they run a large bank. >> steve square, ceo of american express. he deals with the people every day. i hear very regular people who are saying you know what, rets give the regular person a break. that's what j. pow wants to do he will slipped at one point and say yes, i understand that the ppi was hotter -- he may break his discipline and agree with someone who says, but mr. chairman it is hotter -- because that is all they are going to

ask. what do they care, how big his fishing? did you catch a bigger large mouth bass than -- he's in charge. >> what if he's wrong. what if it is not as transitory as he thinks he should be preponderance of the evidence peppered on that. oil, don't rule out a hundred dollar barrel of oil. >> i'll rule it out. is oil going change the way greenpeace has suddenly taken over exxon he can raise rates all he wants. the plmarket is going correct itself just like lumber. just like appliances these guys are all working flat out. all these different companies. one day you are going to for your contractor and say i want to do the kitchen over and the contractor is going to say uh-uh. don't do it now. if we wait a little, it will come down. and that is what jay is betting on but these people who have never done a kitchen or a -- i guess they have -- i don't know. they do their yacht kitchen.

i'm saying they are out of touch. they are out of touch. what happens is the market corrects if you are selling 8 dollar beer and a guy opens up and he's saying 4 dollar peer next to you. what are you going to raise it to nine? no and like steve squeri said the rents are coming down. new guys are coming in they can charge less this cycle can go in reverse and that is what he's saying. >> let's listen to what squooer told you about the strength in the consumereri told you about the strength in the consumer. >> credit numbers you can are not what they thought. when i look at mine, my delinquency numbers, they are lower than in years. and personal savings are doubled. so what does a that mean that means people have money to spend. they have skreshry money to spend. and consumers consumer.discretit spend. and consumers consumer >> like moynihan yesterday on squawk. >> it would be different if they

are spending on borrowed money, remarking up credit card bills what steve squeri said is the opposite and so did brin moynihan taying listen, the consumer has never been this solid and spending money because they have money. jay pow is saying wait a minute, i have to -- because the hedge funds tell me to do. i got do that. my job play the role of the hedge funds. get the stock market down. get the -- honest to god, steve squeri speaks for more people than anyone and he is saying lets let it run it is doing well no one is borrowing to any extent they are spending and they have --. what are we supposed to? in 2008 they had horrible balance sheets and they were spending and --. no i'm all assuming is what j. pow said and if one moreay po said and if one more person comes on

and tells what the not wealthy -- >> there is like 8 million jobs or 7 1/2 million jobs yet to be phila filled and that is why jay powell's. >> we're more rigorous in sports than we are with this nonsense >> so the fed is not not going to do anything tomorrow as -- >> well -- >> two day meeting today. >> at one point or another someone is going say, do you really with the red hot housing market have to continue to buy mortgages like you are doing and he'll say you know maybe we have to consider buying less and then you have, you know, at 247 the market drops badly and stays weak the next six days there. >> well they have already started to choreograph how the

message is going to be delivered. last week or the week before >> can't help it people slip up in a q&a. and at one point or another, after the 22nd zoom question about why are you pieing so many mortgages he'll say we look at that and boom t market gets hit that's what i think -- >> you could understand why jamie diamond or -- or listen to steve squeri or brian moynihan who say spending supervisor 19% over 2019 levels and say what is the fed doing? why are they doing as much if these guys are talking to the customer asks saying things are so great. >> so what you want is for people to do worse, spend less, not have. >> i'm just playing devils ad veekt. >> -- not have the great luxury of the billionaire execs or guys making hundred million you want the people on the five page amazon article to make less in order to cure the rich

people's wants i am not a marxist, i am not a trotsky. i did not read lenin i'm a lincoln man. and lincoln wanted people to make it. and he wanted the rich to pay more in order to make that he was the first guy to suggest a graduated income tax i am with lincoln, not lenin >> the music's playing we're going take a break on that -- >> -- billionaire. >> we didn't have a billionaire. >> work the phones. >> the story meme stocks and one ceo believes they could be a recipe for disaster. more "squawk on the street" for the new york stock exchange is is straight ahead. commercial real estate exchange. you can close with more certainty. and twice as fast. if i could, i'd ten-x everything. like a coffee run... or fedora shopping. talk to your broker. ten-x does the same thing, - but with buildings. - so no more waiting. sfx: ding!

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or visit an xfinity store to learn how our switch squad makes it easy to switch and save hundreds. breaking news on industrial production rick santelli always watching that hi rick. >> hi scott. yes. indeed we are waiting industrial production should be hitting momentarily. these are may reads and do remember these are, you know, some of the oldest economic statistics we have so they give us good context into what's going to be with certain areas of mining manufacturing. utilization rates up a bit 75.2 we were expecting 75.1 and this is a nice move considering in the rear view mirror we're following 74.6 so 75.1. that is the best utilization rate going all the way back to february last year when it was 76.3 so this is a very, very good number in that condition o text.

and if we look at the industrial production it is up 8/10 better than we were expecting, scott. that follows up 0.5. and to give context there. the up 0.8 we've had a couple of 2%ers. march was up over 2% and we had the high water mark in june last year, up .6.2 this is nice makes the one two, three, fourth positive number in five months for 2021 scott, jim back to you. >> appreciate that, rick thank you. more evidence the economy is good ready to roar back. >> lot of room for economic expansion with that number i -- we talked during break about something i think you should mention about the fed where you think we are. >> well, i do think there is a debate, right, obvious lip on where inflation is going and i'm just reminded of the same kind of stuff that we heard after the rescue in '08. there is going to be

hyperinflation, hyperinflation i'm still waiting for the hyperinflation. >> i am too. >> so respect the fed reserves the benefit of the doubt until they get it wrong and have they got it wrong i don't know where is the evidence they have gotten wrong. >> -- every 6-8 weeks spot we just don't know. >> how i didn't realize you were still there, rick. but i'm glad you are how have they gotten it wrong? >> they have gotten everything wrong in my opinion. i'll tell you why. because they do what's best so we don't feel the tearing off of the band aid there is going to be a price to pay. none of this is for free somebody always pays and to think that we should stop kicking the tires because it doesn't jump out at you as how incorrect the central banking policies have been it isn't just the fed. it is everything we lower the bar for all the pain and all the payments that have come due. and we just keep stacking them up in the future

and believe me, scott. this probably isn't going affect you or me. it is not going affect jim but it is going to affect a lot of people that are probably too young to pay close enough attention. >> you are certainly rick not the only one who is voicing that concern but if i would have -- >> i could care less if i was the only one or not. doesn't matter it is about about how many people object. >> if i would have pulled a sound bite from you post08 or 09 and played it right now it would probably say. >> pull'em you know what i said said asset prices. they scream. that was inflation it was financial asset inflation because they crowded it all on their balance sheet to protect them from escaping and they won't be able to do that again, scott. trust me what is it over eight trillion dollars on that balance sheet? >> that's the hyperinflation you were talking about back in 08 was asset price --

>> i never said hyperinflation don't put words in my mouth. never said hyperinflation. never said it. commodity prices. >> i played peacemaker one two or times in my life. i think both of you guys make good points. >> -- i don't need peace -- >> just trying to be -- >> wow >> don't need it >> all right -- >> don't agree much with what you think about the fed either, jim, to be honest. >> that's all right. we disagree. >> i agree with one thing you said they know nothing. you should have stuck with that line >> yeah, and that, maybe at that moment they didn't know anything and jim was right to call him out. but i don't -- >> oh yeah that's changed -- >> -- they didn't go big enough in 08, did they? they didn't go big enough in 08 did they scott >> -- >> i know where the evidence is. i know where the evidence is. >> -- told the story. >> 23 trillion dollars on its

way to 30 trillion debt, debt, debt u debt. >> hmm, i can think where there was a lot of spending rick that you probably supported at one point. but oh well. >> oh yeah, that is our problem. it is all about spending e. we've never had a revenue problem in country the more by give, the more they spend. >> okay. >> anymore questions, scott? >> rick, its been a pleasure speaking with you as always. i'm glad you stuck around. >> absolutely, as always. >> i'm glad you stuck around, unexpectedly you made it better thank you. up next is cramer's "mad dash" as we count dount the opening bell and the future, dow is higher by 31 pre market. there is the s&p 500 resqwkn e re" en we come back tailor made or one size fits all?

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all right. it is time now for cramer's "mad dash" as we countdown to the opening bell you okay are you okay >> i don't know. never been trashed as a peacemaker trying to figure out when a peacemaker was last -- other than that a colt 45 peacemaker. >> i think you try and be nice that's what happens. >> you know what, takes just as much energy to be nice as be mean let's go over something i think is a little philosophical and a lot less by the way, scatological amazon so today pick up the paper and there is a devastating piece in the "new york times" about what it is really like to work in jfk -- the amazon warehouse, staten island new york city. and then you read j.p. morgan talk about amazon's share of e-commerce and how they are going pass walmart as the

largest u.s. retailer. i think this is extraordinary. this is -- obviously i like amazon very much i like walmart but this is the skiller. >> but you said amazon last week -- favorite name. >> yeah and it wound up 200 points which is good. better to be lucky that be good though i'll tell you. this i think the controversy i read this, there was a google article. apple. the media does not like big tech what the media said about amazon is right. but the customer is also always right and what's going to be here is that the customer is not going read that "new york times" piece and say you know what? i'm not going to use amazon. the customer loves amazon. >> loves it. >> zmaz why the j.p. morgan piece is going to trump -- too controversial after that -- that crazy stuff. >> no, don't -- please, don't go there in. >> i think amazon, the piece by j.p. morgan is what matters. is that the customer loves amazon and they justify the move and then so some and i think amazon goes much

higher i know i did a piece last night from my friend larry williams who said we could have six days a -- the weakest days of the year are right here. and it is 11 of the -- 22 out of 22 they have gone down. >> -- tech apparently wear talk about. >> i know well it is not technical as much as historical. but i think you use that to buy amazon because it is obvious that what really matters is the customer the customer loves amazon. i'm sturnd >> i'm not. >> i mean i'm from philly. imused to discord. >> i'm not stunned. >> i through snowballs. >> the opening bell minutes away

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the "opening bell" is brought to you by: all right the so called meme stocks also in spotlight this morning. amc, entertainment continuing to rally after soaring 33% the last two sessions petco jumping into the fray surging 18% yesterday giving some of those gains back pre market you see the move right there by the way, morgan stanley ceo james goreman weighing in on the

reddit fuel trades yesterday on "closing bell. listen. >> i worry obviously when i see something up 12100% year to date which at least one of e these stocks is. 1200%. that's recipe for disaster at some point maybe it never happens and defies reality but, you know, i would not want to be -- i would not want to be investing a the levels they are at that is just my personal view. i don't think it is healthy. i i don't want people to have expectations that stocks can go up hundreds of percent in six months and it is all just something that happens naturally. >> you know look he's not the first of he's not going to be the last comes out and looks at what's happening in the meme mania world and says well i don't like the way this feels what do you make of this >> i will say. look at the most active every day it is the meme stocks. yesterday's most active. you saw meme stocks. but i have -- i respect james

and have from day one. but i think recipe for disaster is too strong. i do think that amc, they are in love with that higher it goes, the more adam aaron can reduce the debt. gamestop, i think they are a little too infatuated by the man's brought in an unbelievable stream deem. maybe he's got something maybe he doesn't the other meme stock, frankly, it is our job. it is the media's job to poke holes. okay because the analysts won't for instance, today there is a very, very, i can't even -- it's not. it is so dirty, it is to pornographic scatological recommendation for b, and g foods, a company i well. been on "mad money" repeat willed i and almost a shortage as bed bath which we all love that one actually i think is a good company because of mark triten it is hilarious. so vulgar.

and let's say, they say it crushed it on the first carr barclays said the quarter was to ugly to look at. it was a major miss on er single line every single line was a miss and they say it crushed it now threshold things what they say, they are hilarious that you think if you like imagimisisoges humor. but the fact is it the company is doing very poorly i also follow petco, and i have them on. that ice been another one i follow i actually do work i stay up real late and i

actually do work something they ought to try but a they don't care. and -- tay move petco. and petco looks like a total dump and pump. they knew nothing about petco. they didn't have any edge at all. they didn't take achieve chewy up by the worshipped -- bow but now they have to move up petco because oh, jim is saying ooh it's over. of course there is a pump can dump i said don't buy it at 40. well if you bought it at 40 you are a complete chump because the hedge funds -- and the hedge funds short short short. and i think these guys are unwitting stooges of the hedge funds. so james gorman, we will take care do-- we in the media when we're not fighting against each other in some ugly thing that i can't stand and i'm not a particularly nice guy from way back and i also played the most -- but i didn't like that

discord. but i will tell you that this is classic pump and dump behavior james gorman in the media will help you put an end to this. b, and g is a outrage. up from 29ful has a bad quarter. they gunned wendys to 30 and right back down 24 what kind of behavior is this. >> most if not all of these stories are divorced from reality though. >> well bg is heavily shorted. that's why -- >> amc, come. >> amc, they have the fire power. they have the fire power i can't take away the fire power. >> part of the reason why they have fire power is because of the unwitting stooges that you claimed are bidding these stocks up gave adam aaron a chance to raise money. >> i know adam -- i known adam for years. -- he did good job with the

process with the 76ers because he ran -- >> but the that stock move is divorced from reality. >> but they gave adam a visitorous -- >> artuous -- >> a lifeline. >> right so he's taking advantage. he can no you go on offense. as long as they keep this up, he will have more money the two they own they do amc and they gamestop. gamestop is nothing retailer but if you give the guy, ryan cohen enough money and bring in a dream team he'll reinvent as perhaps a crypto bank. he's got 55 million loyalists in the program. so they own those two. and they can keep the balls in the air on those they hated me when i called -- i ripped out the darn kathier and said sell at 400 and i have been hated ever since. they are not on my team.

and i don't play for them. and they can say i play for the rich hedge funds they are idiots. rich hedge funds, i'm saying the hedge funds are taking advantage of what they are doing and shorting the stocks, except for clover health, which is a hindenburg name. jeff things and they got overrun because the short position. >> i'll mention that in a second we're five minutes over board but let me just mention the opening bells. you did hear the bells ringing here so you mentioned draftkings. we pull -- >> i'm try to get the line -- >> i know. i had to read that stuff though -- it is the hindenburg report this morning relative will -- >> you can't -- >> -- regarding its spac deal. and it is, look, draftkings is a very favored name. >> it's -- well looks, again may have to take myself out of

discussion because have a program can draftkings i have to look innocent until proven guilty. we got read the report got to get jason's -- jason was on last week >> jason robbins. >> yeah. he told a very good story. i think they and penn gnat are two companies that have taken advantage of national gaming each time they get it a new state they do well you are going to go into the football season. the as terrific site but i don't know i've got the read what nate -- nate -- i'm a little flustered because again, i don't -- i have to read through the darn report. >> understood. understood. >> -- i mean don't you think he -- >> of course he does the stock is down almost 8% on this report. and obviously by virtue of this tick by tick chart that we have on the screen. volume i'm assuming is heavier than normal at this time of the morning for a stock like that. >> and we have to -- and nate has been wright.

this is nathan anderson. and he's been wrong. and so we have to go through it. i'm up here on tv right now. and i'm not -- i have not been able to get -- jason's response, i've called for it i've asked i think that when i took anderson's side on clover, because it was a great report on -- because it was a great records and lordstown. had all of these guys on it. but then i had grow generation on and he was just very wrong on grow generation. company that makes picks and shovels for the you want to grow marijuana which is another of course national trend that is working. so look, let's -- >> regular pick and shovel doesn't work like at the true value or the -- >> yes, you do to grow marijuana. it is very expectative. >> you need a special pick and a shovel. >> well you have to do special lighting indoors. >> i get the lighting but i

mean -- >> $10,000 for a lot of the stuff, individual things you need to grow you should look at the catalog i looked at the catalog because they were on not because i want to grow marijuana. that never been my expertise i grow -- speak tomatoes and the -- using japanese eggplant this year. and string beans and peas and potatoes and which i don't do until the eegz play the radius in vegas on october 24th i do think he's been right and been wrong jason robn't robbins been a good company. a long-term chart on draftkings. and you will see its been a company made lot of money for people i got to digest this $21 billion spac hide black market operations. >> the market votes first and asks questions later and you are asking the questions first. >> just like b and g when i read

the meme and they talked about how great the quarter was and then they did a lot of things with sex toy involving green giant was the lead i mean is that really the kind of research we want? and then they actually pretend they have some research and then they finally come to the conclusion, which is look, it is the second heavily most shorted stock that has a good dividend after bed bath you want to play that game is the game literally i win, use lose, let's beat the shorts? it is on amc because adam aaron has figured thought play the game and he's an unbelievable good ceo. >> he's taken advantage of the game and hand that was given to him. >> where was ryan cowen's plan last week? did you see any? >> no. >> so there is a lot of hope involved there. >> there is. let me steer the conversation to an area of the market that has not been working lately. it does play into this week's events banks. looking at j.p. morgan down 1

and 1/3 percent right now. all the banks are down this week down like 5% in a week down this month. rates are sub150 at least they were earlier this morning. i haven't -- >> -- listen to what jamie diamond said yesterday >> about -- >> i think he wishes he worked with jack dorsey that he was actually a tech guy. do we have what he said about square he is square envy. >> i'm finding it. >> did we listen to square envy. look at this we could have done what square did. i mean, jamie, i mean, wow could have dope. >> he said we could have done what square did, and we didn't, okay so if you were at my management epimeeting i would have told them we could have done it and we didn't. we didn't have the imagination to do it it wassen a technology it wasn't that hard to add the donegal itself was any

mythical >> very damning, self damning of course 's very self deprecating rather than having him own up it would have been better had he done it. he did point out they don't have the regulation and they don't have to worry about legacy systems and that is very true. and if you were to regulate square like you would j.p. morgan than they would about have done any better square doesn't have deposit pace fdic, fed doesn't look at them and overall jamie is saying will be we're a great bank. we play by our rules but they are the rules the government's given us. >> he understands the threat that the paypals and the squares and sofis of the world present. >> it is an existential threat though >> what do you do about it if you are him other than to have this moment where you are self critical and say well we're could have, would have should have but we didn't. >> i think you do what america's best is doing. and create

bought cabbage and going to do what square's done and going to be really effective. one of the reasons i have a affinity for american express because they are doing a lot of things that make it so they can compete against square in the small business i this jamie should do the same thing. he's a great manager and ham strung by regulation by which stocks have done better square and -- well square been unbelievable stock paypal >> the banks were unbelievable stocks until they stopped working because the rates stopped. >> yeah but i don't want to be dependent upon constiinterest rs i won't tab dependent on imagination. i want the guy with the imagination, the disruptive imagination that is helping small business i question whether they have the commitment to small business i question it. the small business commitment from american express is unquestionable but the fact is, is that these guys figured it out. square figured out what you want a as small business person the square people came to see me and now fortunately because i'm

lucky enough to have done well, i don't need a product that is to borrow against your retds but the average small business does need that so i think square had the imagination, and j.p. morgan had the failure imagination. >> if the. >> if the fed doesn't play ball and sticks with the theses those will all go up and bolstered by the fact -- pre announced this morning and the stock's down because that -- which is really incredible and -- >> -- big winner. >> its been a big winner but what has to happen is the fed -- if the fed stays on course, then the hedge funds will go nuts and

paul tutor jones will be right when he says you have got to go all in on the commodities trade. but again, and jones is a good commodities trader if the fed changes its done i think the senior growth stocks works. if the fed stick with its tube i think the steels work. freeport has gone from -- >> -- joe tear nova brought -- well it's lugly this morning though down like 6% the -- >> -- 11% from high. iron ore down 10%. soybean is down 7. corn is down 11. generic lumber down 41 someone would say look how much they are up here to date but i can see a pattern. commodities coming down and i think china economy is slowing because of the illness. >> yeah but oil is maybe going to a hundred bucks. >> oil there is a great article today about how the greens have made it so that there is going to be a scarcity of oil.

and that's been -- that's been the theses that i've been sticking by. which is that the shortage of oil and pipelines, which is kind of manufactured to some degree by the greens is going to cause oil to go up and in the same way that oil went down repeatedly as rusty brazil pointed out finish tants oil went down under trump because trump wants to drill anywhere when you restrain drilling that price will go higher. >> see the exxon call this morning? reiterated by bank of america. 90 bucks is a price target huge gain from here and think they are going to raise the dividend. >> i think exxon is a good stock here now why? i didn't think the stocks were investable because i was worried about their commitment to the environment. anyone who looks at that exxon board, that board is so committed to the environment i want to buy exxon. i've changed my student on the ones mike worth at chevron.

passionate sheffield at pioneer, passionate exxon the most pro environmental board of all the oils because of engine one so these stocks are now up stocks i know we got to move on but i like the oils. those oils that i just mentioned. >> you getting the same message in your ear as mine. let's get to bob pisani pisani good morning to you. >> good morning scott. good see you very modest response to the hotter ppi ten year flattish. the vix still sitting around 16. that is about where it was pre pandemic very modest respond. take a look at the sectors and as we've been noting there's been a bias against cyclical end values so far this month contributing little today but not as much. energy great moves up here new highs in energy. oil holds up near 70 dollars teching flattish but the overall trend has been pretty clear.

buy a little more growth and sell a little more of the cyclical value stock here's. you can see what's been going on in the overall fund manager surveys. bank of america had the fund manager survey out really remarkable just how bullish they are overall. overall inflation issues, transitory 72% buying into the fed's idea it is transitory 23% saying it is going to be permanent. what is it greatest risk its not been covid for a long time many months. inflation is the greatest risk for midwest of them 30%. but interestingly as many people think it is going to be a fed taper tantrum, that the fed will get the messaging wrong essentially, also saying 30% as the biggest risk here is what's surprising. the most crowded trade is long commodities. who would have thought i have never seen that as the most crowded trade i think the problem lot of people have is the money has already been made on this particular trade if you look at what's been going

on this year in the inflation trade. that's what everybody has been making the money in. energy is up 46% materials up 19. commodities etfs that own futures positions that are up 25, 30, 35%. there is even an inflation tesetf that started in january. it's up 20%. s&p up 12 or 13% so these are all outperformed essentially now and the reflation trade, if you look at the actual stocks themselves nar this bills, they have already started looking toppy. freeport's having a terrible important. down 5 or 6% so that would be down 20 this is prior to the open here but that reflation stocks. parker han fin, they are already topped out and showing some signs of coming off the highs rather noticingly. in the meantime all the speculative tech stuff that got

clobberedered in march and ril down 40, 50% they stopped going down. they started moving up in the last couple of weeks so, you know, they are still off their eyes, zoom and shopify, roku, paypal 15, 20, 25% off highs but they are stopped going down and started creeping up. the reason the market keeps sitting at a new high is because of this amazing ability of keep rotating in and out of various sectors. certainly scott, the easy money in that trade was made in the first four month of the year back to you. >> bobby, thank you. bob pisani coming up the autonomous vehicle landscape. cruz ceo dan amann "squawk on the street" back in a moment

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take a look at the top gainers on the s&p 500 exxon mobile we were just discussing that along with micron. >> that's been in a tail spin for a long time. >> battling it out today up next in stop trading with jim. obsession has many names. this is ours. the lexus is. all in on the sport sedan. lease the 2021 is 300 for $379 a month for 36 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer. i became a sofi member because i needed to consolidate my credit card debt. i needed just one simple way to pay it all off. it was an easy decision to apply with sofi loans, just based on the interest rate and how much i would be saving. there was only one that stood out and one that actually made sense and that was sofi personal loans.

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time for stop trading. >> one of my favorites is thermo fisher goldman sachs today cuts the price target from 590 to 530 while leaving it a buy this is important. they make the best machines. if you go outside of covid, then that's going to cause the numbers to be cut. that's what they're saying is going to happen. >> what's on mad tonight >> iakamai and twilio. that's the stock people will have that and adobe.

the people have clustered around if you believe in the low inflation scenario sorry for what happened. i -- >> you didn't do anything wrong. there's nothing to apologize for. >> i play for cnbc and the institution must be preserved. >> coming up, inflation in all things fed with former fed governor sarah bloom raskin. this is the sound of low cash mode from pnc bank, giving you multiple options and at least 24 hours to help you avoid an overdraft fee. because we believe how you handle overdrafts should be in your control, not just your bank's. low cash mode on virtual wallet from pnc bank. one way we're making a difference. i'm dad's greatest sandcastle - virtand greatest memory!bank. but even i'm not as memorable as eating turkey hill chocolate peanut butter cup ice cream

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good tuesday morning welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i am morgan brennan along with scott. we are live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. i'll be right over to post nine in a moment. carl and david have the morning off. just for a quick check on markets, lower today as the fed kicks off the inflation data the s&p is down about 4, almost 5 points 4250 is the level after hitting another record closing high yesterday. it's a similar story for the nasdaq, down .2 %. the dow is down .3%. or 109 points right now. business inventories are out just hitting the wire and for

that we turn to rick santelli. >> good morning, morgan. business inventories had the worst number ever in may of last year minus 2.2 then it was followed by minus 1.1. everything from july last year on has been positive except for today. down .2. this is the current read on april business inventories first negative number since june of 2020. and really does underscore that we just don't have enough widgets in any pile and that the service sector is starting to outpace manufacturing. it was demonstrated in retail sales. housing was hot, hot, hot. let's see if it's cooling off. let's go to diana for the latest information on the housing index. >> reporter: home builder sentiment in june dropped to 81, two points anything above 50 is considered positive but that's the lowest reading since last august. and down from a record high of

90 last november higher lumber costs continue to be a problem pushing new home prices higher and according to chief economist, robert deets, pricing some buyers out. lumber prices have come down but are still 275% higher than their prepandemic norm of the index's three components, current sales conditions down to 86 sales expectations in the next six months down two points to 79 regionally on a three-month average, builder sentiment rose in the south, dropped in the rest of the nation one note, smaller builders now say they're having trouble getting construction loans because the appraisals are not matching up with the very high home prices. morgan >> thank you for bringing us the latest on that we are 30 minutes into the trading session. here are the three big movers we're watching draft kings is plunging after a new short call on the stock alleging black market connections.

you can see the shares are down about 7.5% right now plus sage therapeutics also sinking. following the release of study results for the experimental depression drug. that stock is down almost 14%. finally, we'll end with vroom announcing it's intending to offer $500 million in convertible senior notes due in 2026 those shares are down. >> the fed kicking off the monetary policy meeting. we have more and the results from the cnbc latest fed survey. ylan, good morning >> reporter: the cnbc fed survey shows respondents are convinced the central bank will remain on hold for now despite the surge in inflation the first rate hike not expected until november of 2022 just one meeting earlier than in the last survey. they also don't think the fed will start tapering until jab. that's after the economy will be back on track.

on average, respondents are forecasting inflation will peak by november and economic activity is restored by the end of q4. this is the first time inflation is the number one concern of respondents. the majority, 60 % still think it's transitory. only 29% believe it's permanent. the same is true to the labor market 77% think the worker shortage is temporary and will sort itself out. compared to a fifth who think it will be longer lasting the majority of respondents agree with the fed's stance. it doesn't need to raise rates now. however, there is a feeling there's a lot of accommodation in the system. and respondents want to see the fed address that immediately by reducing asset purchases a reminder the consensus in the fed's forecast is that the first rate hike won't happen until 2023 respondents believe the central bank has breathing room but it won't be able to wait quite that long

morgan, back to you. >> we're going to stay with the fed. yesterday some of the biggest names in business weighed in on the upcoming meeting and inflation. >> the question is when does the fed move it has to move at some point and i think the bias is more likely earlier than the current suggestion rather than later that's what i expressed. i have no special wisdom on it, but my gut tells me this economy is recovering faster, inflation is moving quicker, and it may not be as transitory as we think. >> the debate is what is transitory after the fact you figure out it wasn't you'll never figure it out on the way in, because it's temporary and you're on the way in that's the question. we have to be careful. >> i think this fed meeting could be the most important fed meeting in jay powell's career if they say we're on path, things are good, then i would just go all in on the inflation.

on the inflation trades. i probably buy commodities, crypto, gold >> former federal reserve governor and cnbc contributor sarah bloom raskin joins us now. sarah, great to have you on the show >> great to be here. >> when i hear some of the biggest names of some of the biggest companies that have front row seats to the financial underpinnings and dynamics that held drive the economy, making comments like that, does the fed, is the fed going to be considering some of the same things and thinking about this beyond the transitory discussion today and tomorrow >> most certainly. whether the fed actually tips its hand explicitly regarding what its going to do is a whole other question and all ears are on the press conference to see, in fact,whether they do that and how they do it you can be certain that this federal open market committee is going to be very intent on

looking at data, particularly the incoming data, and determining the extent to which they need to begin the process of communicating a tapering back of asset purchases >> yeah. i mean, certainly we will in a second get into the discussion around interest rates, et cetera but i saw a note this morning from a strategist basically said the emergency is over, so why do we still need emergency levels of stimulus from the fed right now? and we just got some key numbers where housing is concerned we certainly see that on fire, and when you think about $120 billion in bonds and mortgage backed securities being bought every month, is the taper talk at this point overdue? >> right well, this is -- this is obviously what the fed is going to need to be grappling with right now. but we have to keep in mind they keep their eyes on their so-called dual moon date they are looking at price

stability and also at the employment side. they have two big macro goals to be focussed on and at this point, their determination is that they still need to keep the pedal to the ground in order to keep the economy moving in a way that's going to be promoting a more fullsomecomprehensive inclusive economic growth. they're looking at macro indicators as well and determining the extent to which they need to keep their eyes on those goals before they start to communicate something that could potentially actually create a bit of a taper tantrum they need to be very careful that they don't do something precipitously to tip their hand into showing overconcern they've got a balancing act as usual to kind of convey, and that's really their challenge at this meeting >> sarah, it's scott good morning

it's nice to see you i'm glad you brought up the dual mandate. one of the criticisms and we heard it yesterday was that the fed, you can throw it out the window they have now a single mandate, and it revolves all around employment and that's what jay powell cares about first and foremost and maybe forever. more than anything else. how do you answer that >> yeah. i'm not sure about that. i mean, i think that the fed obviously needs to communicate that they are keeping vigilant about inflation. that is still price stability is still an explicit statutory mandate. there are people there are households, businesses, who care about price stability. inflation expectations are very important. and the fed doesn't want to do anything that is going to unhinge them, make them -- let the genie out of the bottle. so i think that they are paying quite close attention to the way prices are moving as well.

>> let me ask you directly do you think inflation is transitory or not? >> well, i do think it's transitory the question is what's the definition of transitory how long are these price jumps going to persist and you really need to go sector by sector in order to give an appropriate answer there, and i think we have to look at various parts of the economy gas prices home prices. food prices. travel airline prices >> up, up, up. you're pointing out all these things are up. up, up, up, and up >> right, and the question is whether there are explanations for the up, up, up, and up, that would indicate a more temporary nature right? so, for example, car prices. car prices are up. there's another factor at play which has to do with semi conductors right? so if you have particular bottle necks in terms of supply chain

issues, you ask yourself okay, how long is that bolts neck going to persist when is that relief of the bottle neck going to translate itself into a price that is going to be a different price, a lower price than what is currently confronting consumers? >> yeah. i mean, sara, i realize that we have millions of people that are still out of work right now on the flip side, though, we have record number of job openings. it looks like wages, there's upward pressure on wages and salaries right now as well it's very much a worker's market there does seem to be a sense, at least out on wall street right now, that maybe that change is going back to the transitory debate in the fall as kids go back to school, as unemployment benefits roll off as well. i mean, is that really when from a labor standpoint, going back to the dual mandate conversation, the fed starts to really closely seriously take a look at and reassess its goals and maybe even potentially

depending on the day we get ben, think differently about how its defining maximum employment? >> i don't think the fed changes the way its thinking about it at all. i think the fed is going to continue to take in this data and look at it very seriously. and determine at every single moment the extent to which the setting is correct now, it is -- it is also quite the case that we are in complete supply/demand mismatch in labor markets right? this is the economy opened quite quickly for some sectors, quite unexpectedly for others quite early and these mismatches have created as one would expect they would, supply/demand mismatches on the labor side. and i think those mismatches are going to work themselves out they're going to -- we're not going to see persistent labor

shortages across the board we're going to see them in particular sectors for particular kinds of labor. and they are going to move themselves through the system either by virtue of having wages move up or by firms that have overcorrected in the downside. right? in the pandemic. there were certain industries that felt they needed to lay off everybody. well, guess what they're a little bit behind now in terms of bringing people back on board so we have to look sector by sector in terms of what these labor shortages may be looking like and determine the extent to which those kings get worked out in the weeks and months ahead. >> all right many questions that we'll continue to debate in those coming weeks and months ahead. sarah bloom raskin, thank you for joining us today >> thank you as we head to a quick break, here is a look at the road map for the rest of the hour including the end of a 17 -year dispute between the u.s. and the eu we've got those details.

cruise hitting the accelerator on an expansion. anournsing a new round of funding. the ceo joins us live later this hour >> the reopening trade as well with a ko-- >> look at our travel numbers. our travel bookings in may were 95% of what they were in may of 2019 >> without international >> yeah. that's the u.s. bookings without international. >> that's extraordinary. >> it's unbelievable we also believe that by the end of the year, in the u.s., we will have a full consumer travel perspective, and overall by the end of if year, i think globally about 80% of where we were in 2019 because it hasn't removed the endless mundane work we all hate. ♪ ♪ ♪

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the u.s. and eu resol offing the 17-year boicheing and airbu dispute. we're live with the latest >> reporter: we're waiting for the president bide biden's arrin geneva the arrival of the president for his dialogue with vladimir putin of russia. before he left brussels a short time ago, today the eu and u.s. negotiators announced a deal here in this long simmering dispute about subsidies to aircraft manufacturers airbus and boeing. in the end they decided to withdraw all the tariffs that

have been put in place that would be in place for a five-year period of time the u.s. is reserving the right to put the tariffs back in at some point in time if they don't like what they're seeing in the eu side. they framed this very much as a battle between the eu and the u.s. and joining together, joining forces against the chinese. sort of an outside factor economically forcing the eu and the u.s. to resolve that long-running dispute so the biden team chalking that up as a win as they left brussels on their way to geneva while the president was giving a press conference yesterday, he was asked about his comment earlier in the year that vladimir putin is a killer. fascinating moment in diplomacy there. biden was asked this question, and then gave a long and meandering and halting answer. it seemed clear that he did not want to provoke vladimir putin on the eve of this summit. nonetheless, he said this. >> i was asked that question on

air. i answered it honestly but it's not much of a -- i don't think it matters a whole lot in terms of this next meeting we're about to have. >> reporter: so a whole lot at stake in this summit cyber security, top of the agenda also the situation in ukraine, russian election interference. so many issues on the table between the two men. we don't have much indication of exactly how this conversation is going to unfold, what the logistics of it are going to be. we know it's going to take place in a lovely villa here on lake geneva it's a beautiful setting for a conversation, if nothing else. the u.s. side minimizing expectations for a major breakthrough in geneva this year >> and we know the world will be watching the trade stuff, we got this deal or the five-year deal around the aircraft dispute that's been long simmering some of the trump era tariffs, steel, aluminum and the

countertariffs that have been put on some american-made products imported to europe as well, is this a sign or a signal that we're going to see some other easing of these different duties >> well, what senior administration officials have said is the direction they are traveling in on the negotiations, for example, on 232 tariffs, is good and the conversations are ongoing, but they're down playing expectations for any breakthroughs other than what we saw in terms of the aircraft so that was sort of the one tangible deliverable but senior administration officials say they are encouraged by the way the conversations are going on tariffs more broadly we might see some followup in the weeks and months to come after this but nothing that they were prepared to announce before biden got on the plane today >> all right thank you. >> big 24 hours ahead for you. we'll talk to you soon switching our focus to the major cruise stocks tumbling over the next week down around 7% sector seeing a broader recovery year to date after a crushing 20 20

joining us now is truist lodging analyst patrick scholes. it's good to see you this morning. >> good morning, thank you >> i'm look agent the calls you have right now and the cruise lines. you're pretty much negative across the board why so >> yeah. the real question here is -- and this is the most difficult question what has been priced in. when i look at especially names like carnival, you know, if you're thinking that e-- these stocks are pretty expensive. i have on eps roughly 20 times pe on 2023 levels. that's versus historical or where it was trading in 2019, closer to 10 or 11 times so to me, it seems that most of the high expectations for return to travel are priced in especially to a name like

carnival >> i think it's already baked. carnival specifically, you have a cell with a price target dr nowhrwegian a hold with 26 are you thinking about the issue in florida with the battle between the cruise lines and the governor with vaccines >> i think about it all the time >> do you really >> yeah. i mean, the governor is really -- at least this is a short-term issue it's a short-term issue that can as we have seen over the last week, as you mentioned with the stocks down, has put a cramp in some of the momentum trade certainly the governor's actions have put the cruise lines in a rock and a hard price between a rock and a hard place. and certainly it makes it very challenging for the cruise lines to get going here. >> but if that dispute, if you

want to call it that, was resolved with that factor into your thinking about where the stocks could go at least in the near-term? >> i think even though i have accelerated on carnival, i think if it got resolved today, sure, that would be a short-term positive absolutely >> patrick, it's morgan. we're seeing corporate debt balloon right now. and we mentioned carnival. i know where you stand on the stock, but it has 33 billion in debt that was triple at the end of 2019 you can look to the hotels or airlines or across some of the different sectors right now that had to weather the pandemic. is there -- is that even factoring into the discussion right now about the stocks looking out to 2022 and beyond how should investors think about that >> i mean, it is, but i think the continuation of the momentum on the reopening trade is trumping that. one thing i should have mentioned when i talked about

valuations, for example, carnival 20 times pe, that's going to be a debt level significantly higher than they were in 2019 and typically or at least historically in a normal environment, we're not going to give the same type of valuation multiple to a economy that can work that in relation to the earnings >> all right looking across your entire coverage universe, given the run we have seen some of the reopening names, is there anything that you would buy right now at these levels? >> absolutely. i'm going to give you my favorite niche, and if you go back and look at my interviews, this will sound repetitive, but it's going to be the emit segment of the vacation ownership. specifically names like hilton brand vacations. travel and leisure, and marriott vacations. certainly these stocks have done very well year to date i believe there's continued up side to estimates, what's unique about the names. unlike many names in the travel

industry that have been and continue to play defense, these companies made some significant m&a earlier in the year, and i don't think the up side to either cost synergies or revenues are fully priced into that sub sector, and specifically on the hotel side, i like more of the leisure centric names. one that stands out is hotels primarily domestic drive to mid scale and economy hotels at a valuation i don't see stretched. >> patrick, appreciate it. thank you for your time today. >> thank you >> i want to show you pictures we were talking about a few moments ago. president biden touching down in geneva just a few moments ago. that's air force one landing there ahead of that much-anticipated face to face meeting with russia's vladimir putin. that's scheduled for tomorrow. we're going to continue to keep our eye on the goings on there in the meantime, though, a closer look at the volatility in krip doe that's coming up

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let's get to our etf spotlight. ticker jets off the highs of the morning. up more than 15% for the year. there it is. today it's just a fractional loser. about a third of a percent there it is year to date, up 16%. one name in that group to watch is spirit airlines got an upgrade today to buy from neutral over at citi this as the company said in an sec filing that leisure demand that has continued to improve throughout the second quarter. spirit shares up 40% year to date we'll be right back. stay with us ♪ ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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welcome back here is your cnbc news update. club goers in los angeles celebrating as california lifted capacity limits at businesses and new york's governor

scheduled a news conference for later today where he will make an announcement about reopening in new york. in california and for the rest of the nguyewestern u.s. dangerously hot temperatures will set new records this week the region suffering through a severe drought in illinois an argument in a chicago home turned violent early this morning gunfire killed four hwomen and wounded four others. a worker dead by suicide after shooting two others. an employee telling the ap, quote, it's kind of shocking, and then it isn't given the state of the world you're up to date. scott, back to you >> all right welcome back to "squawk on the street." down here at post nine at the new york stock exchange. we're about an hour into the trading session. let's get a check on the biggest leaders on the s&p so far. sin rony financials up two and a

third percent. micron was fighting it out now it has the top spot. the laggards, freeport down 7% that's the biggest loser of the s&p today. >> yeah. c copper under pressure. bitcoin is trying to hold on to the $40,000 level outflows as well according to new data out of coin shares and crypto continues to see a second week of net selling. jill carlson is with us alongside electric capital founder. good morning to you both jill, i'll start with you. given some of the fluctuations, bit of a rebound we have seen in bitcoin in the last couple days. everybody points to elon musk. i know where you fall in that debate, but what would you attribute to whether it's musk or something else, what would you attribute to the gains we've

seen >> well, thanks for having me back i would say there are three narratives driving bitcoin right now. there's the sort of elon musk almost meme stock narrative that's driving retail. there's the bitcoin as an inflation hedge asset that's driving wall street and institutional players and then there's bitcoin as a tool of economic empowerment driving a lot of the industry itself and all three of these narratives have had big wins over the last couple weeks and so we're starting to see market strength return but we're not quite i think out of the woods yet if you look at some of the more kind of market technical factors, things like bitcoin relative strength, we're not quite back into that bull market territory. so we'll see >> i want to get your thoughts on the same exact question, especially as we've heard about so-called crypto whals whether it is the push, pull, maybe perhaps co-dependent relationship with elon musk. or whether it's comments

yesterday or michael sailor at microstrategy as they continue to raise money to buy more bitcoin. >> yeah. no, good to see you. thank you for having me. i think the narratives are spot on i think when you think about macro what's happening here, when we look at the space, we think long-term. all the short-term price movements i think are going to pale in comparison to the next decade with bitcoin as an asset as we see the institutions coming in and bitcoin and others as a new software platform that unlock all sorts of economic innovation in the short-term, you could see it go up or down the thing that gets us excited is the medium to long-term, this is stressful and we're in the early innings of that. >> it's scott. i just have a question for you and i thought the way that mor morgan described it was perfect.

the co-dependent relationship between bitcoin and elon musk. how can we take something as a serious asset class when it has that kind of a relationship with whether it's musk or jack dorsey or whomever comes into the spotlight with a big name and either backs it or diss it and it fluctuates in either direction based on that? how do we take that seriously? >> yeah. it's a great question. i tend to think that the narratives around elon musk or any of these sort of the meme effects are overstated i think at the end of the day, what's going to drive this are capital inflows and outflows the bulk is going to come from very deep pocketed institutions that are not paying attention to what elon musk tweets week over week and so over time, i think it makes for a nice story i think it's fun elon knows how to use twitter. he knows how to use social media for his own personal advantages. for the benefit of tesla at the end of the day, it's a

nice story, but i don't think it matters in the long-term if you look at the amount of capital that needs to go into bitcoin for it to achieve what it's capable of being a global asset class, musk can't herald that kind. at the end of the day, if you're seriously considering bitcoin as an asset class, is it an inflation hedge? is it a way for emerging economies to have a different sort of payment system is it a new asset class and the one of technology that's going to revolutionize finance those will dominate. >> i think, jill, paul used the description in the interview yesterday that bit kellyanne conway, he liked it because he liked investing in something, i think he used the word certain for bitcoin. i'm trying to think, it seems

like it's anything but certain right? how can something be considered a store of value or certain if it fluctuates so wildly and has so much volatility either moment by moment, day by day or week by week >> you have to remember that bitcoin is more than just a price. right? bitcoin is a technology. and when i heard paul saying that on cnbc the other day, you know, what i heard him talking about was the technology he was not talking about the price. and in order to be an investor in something at a favorable price, and to ride the increase in that price over time, particularly when it comes to emerging technology, you have to study the technology and you have to be a believer in the fundamentals of the technology first. and so i would just remind you and remind anyone watching that bitcoin is first a technology and the price is, you know, is there as a factor of that. >> yeah. i mean, that's some key nuance

there that i think sometimes gets lost in the tv discussion just to jump into that before we wrap this up tap root, this upgrade to bitcoin that's coming. what does that mean not only for btc but also the crypto space in general when you think about the other technological applications that things like etheir yum have been seen as more competitive for? >> yeah. i think -- well, i think there are two thoughts it shows bitcoin can continue to progress and innovate and there's a cohort of engineers. there are hundreds of engineers that work on the bitcoin protocol every day it shows there's continued progress in bitcoin. it's technology. they're continuing to be hundreds of people investing every day in that technology, not counting the thousands of people working at places like coin base.

the second thing it shows is there's innovation happening there. the real story behind the price is that there are thousands and thousands of engineers working in the space and it's reminiscent of early internet we're starting to see the beginnings of how this is going to transform in 1990 it would have been crazy for someone to say kids playing around in protocols are going to run the biggest companies in the world and disrupt wall street and the media. that's what we're seeing is you're seeing generally people that are extremely young you're talking about engineers that are often under 25, college dropouts the vision for many of the people is to disrupt the financial institution and reimagine having a more open and fair way i think that is an example of that starting to happen. >> all right going to leave the conversation there. thank you both for joining us today. great to speak with you both >> look at shares of fastenal. underweight at morgan stanley. they are trading at all-time

highs but pulling back slightly. a little more than 2 % on the call "squawk on the street" will be right back that building you're trying to buy, you should ten-x it. ten-x is the world's largest online commercial real estate exchange. and it's fast. if i could, i'd ten-x everything. like our lunch. (laughs) amazing! see it. want it. ten-x it. uno, dos, tres, cuatro!

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sellers on the platform. the initiative provides grants, strategic business guidance and promotion. we spoke with two owners in the program. a gourmet sweet sellers says the program increased sales and the ability to collect data about the business, equally important to here. >> i would have been sitting on amazon and maybe somebody would have known i was there or not. this helped me to be discovered and the sales started to double. it helps me pick up speed faster when i was losing in the pivot, in the pandemic. >> and participants can apply for a $10,000 grant as well as credits for product imaging and marketing. the accelerator follows initiatives by other publicly traded companies in 2021 earlier this month sales force amounsed a partnership with p diddy. walmart says 2% of the media spends will go to black firms.

the gap also taking the 15% pledge scott, back over to you. >> all right frank, appreciate that very much tomorrow don't miss the cnbc evolve global summit with featured speakers including ceos from pfizer and other businesses register now looking forward to that very much we're back in three minutes. wondering what actually goes into your multivitamin? at new chapter, its' innovation, organic ingredients, and fermentation. fermentation? yes. formulated to help you body really truly absorb the natural goodness. new chapter. wellness, well done.

welcome back to squawk on the street stocks are lower today with most of the s&p 500 sectors trading in negative territory led by declines in real estate and materials. one outperformer is energy that sector is up more than 1% with nearly every constituent trading higher that includes names like occidental and diamondback, marathon oil exxon also among the leaders after analysts at bank of america reiterates the buy, predicting the dividend will hike before the end of the year. exxon mobile getting 2.25% up side $63.43 morgan and team, back over to you.

>> bracing for the pain at the pump thank you. coming up, the ceo of cruise will talk. his new $5 billion credit line and building out the company's autonomous vehicles. we have so much more on that right after this break

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ceo economic outlook survey. ylan mui has that. >> the nation's top ceos upgraded the economy projecting better sales more investment and strong hiring. the quarterly economic outlook index from the business roundtable rose nine points in q2 to 116, just below the record high in 2018 following the gop tax cuts executives forecast gdp growth of 5%. up 1.3 percentage points from the previous forecast. jumping 15 points, capital investment and seams up six points walmart ceo and brt chairman doug mcmillon saying it's a strong sign the nation is climbing out of a crisis and urging more people to get vaccinated to speed up the

recovery brt president josh bolten pointed to a bipartisan infrastructure plan as key to long-term growth the group cautioned higher taxes, though, could dampen the economy's momentum morgan, overall, a rosy picture from ceos suggesting the pace of the recovery is picking up back to you. >> all right ylan, thank you. and over to phil. >> bring in ceo of cruise. dan you guys announced this morning a $5 billion line of credit with gm financial which will help fund paying for the origin autonomous vehicle built over the next several months explain how many of these vehicles you're expecting to have built and how far will this money go towards securing that for your fleets? >> sure. well, it's incredibly exciting times, phil. i was just at general motors yesterday checking out the very first pre-production cruise

origins getting built right now, and there will be several -- nearly a hundred built, into testing over the summer and all in attempt for building a large volume beginning in early 2023 and building tens of thousands of origins at that point in time having capital resources available, this credit line to give the capital that we have already accrued gives a total war chest of $10 billion moving into this commercialization phase. extremely exciting stuff and great to see the origin's various plays. >> and a lot of people on their minds, funding in place, when does commercial services begin with the origin for cruise >> we began fuller driverless testing on the streets of san francisco last november. we're out there testing, doing that every day. that's the beginning of the move into this early

commercialization phase. so over the course of this year and next year, i will be scale's you are our driverless activities just last week, we were the first company to receive a permit, passengers, members of the public, describerless rides, in the state of california something we'll be beginning here in the near to medium term. and then we move through the course of next year to early 2023 when the cruise origin begins production and start scaling things up from there >> dan, whenever i bring up autonomous vehicle ride sharing or hailing, hear the same from people something they're doing out in san francisco. maybe southern california. maybe in phoenix when will i see it around the rest of the country? what do you tell people when they ask that question >> we'll be kicking things off in san francisco also as you know we have a delivery pilot that's under way with walmart in phoenix. we'll begin operations in those two places begin to scale up from there,

and then a very orderly rollout and scaling up of the technology from that point in time. and that's where the cruise on jin gives a huge advantage partnered with general motors and honda, having the ability to produce those vehicles in really big scale, allowing us to scale up rapidly from that point in time we have very, very ambitious scaling plans. the cruise origin's key to unlocking that and the great partnerships we have with gm and honda allow us to make that happen. >> i guess when it comes to self-driving, commercial applications probably make the most sense are the most viable. at least initially in terms of the data collection, what do you hope to learn from this process with origin to basically be able to see broader, wider use of self-driving cars and technologies around the country? >> well, one of the things we've done, a cruise that's different than a lot of other companies. we've done most of our

development work in downtown san francisco in a very, very complex driving environment. we've done that, it allows our technology to learn more quickly. we gather more data. see more 2345unusual things and allowed rapid progress that we've made we do a lot of work, not just with auto testing but in simulation an incredibly powerful tool for us over the last couple of years, and will become even more important as we're scaling up to multiple cities and multiple countries down the road here. >> dan, up against a hard break. quick question for you have the attitudes of the public when it comes to ride sharing, do you think they'll return to where they were pre-pandemic or is there a lingering effect >> i think there's, you know, people want to get back to work. people want to get back to, you know, everything that they were doing before the pandemic. having cheap, affordable, reliable safe transportation is going to be incredibly important to do that, and that's where self-driving technology offers a

huge improvement over what everybody has today. so that's why we're so excited to get the technology on the road, and give people a better form of transportation to go about their lives. >> dan ammann. thank you. ceo of cruz onise, guys. securing a $5 billion credit line from gm financial, funding of the origin, autonomous vehicles over the next couple of years. back to you. >> phil lebeau, thank you for bringing that to us. fascinating to me, scott more than one ceo, within the space more broadly, suggest you could see flying taxis before you see self-driving cars en masse. then when you see and hear comments like that, you realize how close all of these next generation technologies are. >> yeah. close in quotes, i mean. >> yeah. like a space reporter. same thing years we've spent talking about this without reality actually happening. >> before we go, noticing down

across the board, and the dow's down triple digits now about 150-point loss 158 is your loss there s&p, nasdaq also under pressure, too. we'll continue the debate on the "halftime" report. who's right? fed, marx? >> all eyes on the fed scott, great to have you here today g. to see you, morgan. >> that does it for "squawk on the street." "techcheck" starts now good tuesday morning welcome to "techcheck. i'm deirdre bosa with jon fortt. carl has the morning off today gig inflation, or reality check? what higher prices mean for tech investing and how to play it plus, a crypto social network backed by sequoia. speaking to th