it's been blah this year because people see covid going away. this is great multiyear hold from this point. >> talked about that this morning. pete wrap it up for us today. >> the energy space just continues to hit for us. i you sam haliburton. >> that does it for us "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. here is what's ahead this hour price hikes everywhere another report showing food, energy and a bunch of other things are costing more but has inflation already peaked we look at whether it has, what fed might do about it and how you can be prepared either way the hottest unicorn is now stripe

you g it's all coming up in rapid fire today. we kick things off with the market and dom for that. >> i constantly look on zillow to see how much my house is worth. i can't wait for the segment to see how much my house is really worth. the dow off by 130 points. where'll keep an eye on these marginally down markets. one place not showing any fear is the bond market the ten year treasury note yield is about 1.5%. it has been kind of tailing a little bit lower over the course of the past couple of months how can it be that if inflation

is so rampant, apparently that the bond market doesn't seem the think so they keep buying up fix rate debt we'll see if that dynamic holds on i'm sure we'll talk to expert who is will tell us otherwise. megacap technology specifically oracle it's down one and a quarter percent. it's been down this massive software and database and cloud computing companies reports earnings after the closing bell this stock has been up about 53% over the last couple of years. it's out performed over the last 12 months. the reason why it might have found a sweet spot, kelly. value and technology in one it has all these different things going.

>> my next guest says we're in great spot with the market this may be one of the best times ever to invest let's bring in the chief equity strategist and jeff who is chief investment strategist and jeff, you're the man i was re referencing. tell me why you think this is up with of the graetseatest times e exposed. >> when ever we evaluate the market, we talk about the fundamentals if you look at earnings, economic growth, that's solid. we can moderate to thealthy levels valuation is reasonable and technicals are supporters. that's a fair look at environments it's not look we're looking for petty gains or the plans of year but we stay invested for returns

of 2022. we do think there are a number of reasons you heard this from me before to be patient. don't predict the predictors see how the data plays out and it likely will moderate. it's going to be higher levels than we seen historically for some time. there's special items out there that we think will moderate. i'm happy to talk about this >> itell me why and what you're doing about it.

>> the next place to go is not quite as nice. what can bring dlus? that get backseat dwrouyour poit we'll talk about tapering pretty soon i think that will be add t volatility i think the monster that will come to life in early 2022 will be wage inflation. i do think jeff is right that we're seeing moderating ahead of commodity inflation. i do think the 800 pound gorilla which is wage inflation will rear its ugly head in the not too distant future >> i think in stock picks for places that skirt these worrisome trends, you're looking to a roku, texas instruments and that sort of thing jeff, let me ask about the comments heard from paul tudor jones. he said it's a signal to put the inflation trade on you're telling me and i think a lot of people are saying they're not so sure inflation will keep

rising that it might have peaked already if you look at lumber prices and the ppi running hotter than the cpi and that sort of thing. what do you as an investor if the fed does nothing tomorrow on the taper? >> i think we keep doing what we're doing. don't predict the predictors that the offset to this fear about inflation is number one we have had these supply constraints that we think were anniversary. we all read about the semiconductor bottlenecks. that is what causes that we don't see it there.

we would not be running with the names and abandoning growth. we would have a blend of both. we find good innovation that helps drive productivity, by the way and both the growth camp and in pockets of what would be considered value >> you don't have to buy tech and maybe that's not the best thing to buy you can buy consumer discretionary and other part offense the market you have a bunch of picks spanning the sector. chris, i turn back to you on that point that goes to what dom was saying the best part of tech has been old tech it's been the oracles, ibms, the

ciscos you mentioned texas instruments. why is that ae tttractive to be throughout the year? >> we think technology is the wave of the future oil for the late 20th century economy. now we have semiconductors that is equally as essential. texas instruments is our meat and potatoes semiconductor they are not super cutting edge. we think that's great way to play the digital world if things get more volatile. let me make one more point 2021 hasn't been that complicated. we have low rates and a pandemic recovery that's nirvana 2022 gets a lot more complicated and the market will anticipate that six to nine months out. here we are. i would say keep away from complacency. >> all right gentlemen, thank you very much talking about these markets. 24 hours before we get that fed

decision we're gett ting results of 20-ya bond market. how did it go, rick? >> i gave it a's for apple this was the 14th, the 1/4 auction of 20 year securities. there was the best of breed today. the dutch auction yield was 2.12 it get a good rate for pricing if i look at the bid to cover, 2.4 well above the ten auction aver raj on this 14th auction. 62.1 on indirects. those include forn director rgs very solid 20.4 is the largest direct percentage in all 14 auctions as is 17.5. the lowest amount of leftovers taken by the primary dealers which means everything else was ca fought over to some extent i think what it really tells us here is the fed has convinced

some investors that we may see higher prices or lower yields. the truth will be how inflation may change that path kelly, back to you >> rick, thank you turning now to stripe. it's fast becoming one of america's most important e-commerce players investors are playing up for access as it gradually prepares for an ipo it's valued at $95 billion that makes it america's most private tech start-up. why are i vesters so interested in stripe and what does it mean for the traditional credit card names. >> like a fis. these are all the businesses that sort of sit below the surface and do the plumbing that

enables merchants, companies both online businesses and in store businesses take card payments. >> sure, when we see news and some of their partners are offering credit cards and debit cards. let oos play this out as stripe is entrenched now, what does the business model look like in a few more years they continue to take a toll? they will continue to grow with them stripe grew about 70% in 2020. that's all of those businesses got a huge boost with the

pandemic they become a frenemy style bank they offer some banking services like almost on a white label basis. they sort of sit in between. it's not like a direct competition but it's something to keep an eye on. >> we know this is company investors wanted access to for some time. they're so big now this was in part of way to let employees do stock options might be about to expire, kind of monotize those sounds like they still may be readying for the end of this year, next year. is this still going attractive name once it goes public look at some of the whales that have gone public this way. they haven't enjoyed great performance. >> yeah. we'll have to see if and when

stripe finally does ipo like you said it's always a little tricky when these very large companies move from the private market sboos the public markets they are taking some steps, as you said, to try to smooth that transition over the long term, stripe is a fantastic kind of agnostic way to play global e-commerce because they're sort of sitting behind the scenes. you don't have to pick which country or whether you think lit be amazon or shopify that wins they are sitting behind the scenes as the plumbing serving all these players. as long as you believe in the long term growth potential of e-commerce, they are a good long play >> it's telling that shopify is one of their investing partners. they clearly view this as necessary and attractive technology their tech platform and tech --

they're sort of innovation dna is really where their differetiated. because they working with start-ups and really cutting edge e-comm players, those players are pushing them to be very innovative and very speed rapid innovation build out global capabilities some of these card issuance capabilities it's that kind of tech, not just existing technology but laser focus on stay sing cutting edge that's what's going to keep them ahead of some of the other alternatives >> you have buy ratings on the likes of these paypal, mast mastercard, square it seems like it may be lifting these for the time thanks so much for joining us. >> thanks. coming up, with oil at nearly three year highs, we'll talk about what's ahead for crude and other commodities

which are the markets most crowded trades later on in the show, we'll speak with the ceo of crypto asset manager overseeing more than a billion dollars they raised tens of millions from big name investors on wall street we'll explore ahead on "the exchange." ♪ ♪ i had the nightmare again maxine. the world was out of wonka bars... relax. you just need digital workflows. they help keep everyone supplied and happy, proactively. let's workflow it. then you can stop having those nightmares.

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welcome back crude oil is hitting highest levels since 2018 as economies reopen and demand continues to rise west texas climbed nearly 50% so far this year. brent is not far behind and energy is one of the best performing sectors, the best in 202 2021 the latest b of a says commodities are trading. let's ask my next guest. the global head of commodities research with goldman sachs. that's got to set off some alarm bells in your mind, right? >> no. i find it a surprising stat. you lookt at the positioning data copper is running 30% of what it

normally see oil is about average there's only about 80% i think the key when you think about positioning is look at it in the context of total aum. commodities have gone down over the last 15 years. stocks and ponds have gone up. you look at a percentage, it gets smaller and smaller >> very well said. are you bullish on pretty much all of the commodity plays we are watching things like lumber and copper to figure out has the inflation trade peaked from what you're describing, it still feels like it would be ways to go >> we're arguing this is the early endings of a much longer commodity super cycle. in terp ofms of the commoditiese like today, oil is the one with the best upside potential. we have the reopening of economies globally you pass the baton from the u.s. to europe as well as the merging

markets. oil demand just in the last several weeks has gone from 95 billion barrels per day to 96.5 million barrels. that's a huge jump in a matter of weeks you put that into context of nearly elastic supply curve. they were 365 last week. they need to be 400 to offset the rates. we're not seeing the investment which leaves opec as the only game in town our target in third quarter is $80 a barrel >> it's ironic the u.s. sitting on its hands is giving the power back to opec and pushing up the price of oil oil is unique kmodsty in that it is controlled and under the esg pressures. i can understand why someone will look at that and say, that price can keep going higher. that makes sense to me as for the rest of the commodities, there's so many different kinds.

we're talking about metals and do you think we're in the early innings of a multi-year cycle? >> when he look at the metals, the only reason you're negative on oil is because you have to go invest in all of the decarbonization of the global energy system. that will require copper we're urging copper is the new oil. you cannot electrify the world without coppert the goes into high voltage transmission lines lithium and . we call those the big si >> we hear things here and there about this is the new oil, data is the new oil but your point is

that by perursuing the esg gold we're pushing up the price how that affects the affordability of this transmission and thoeds who rely on the sort of oil products we're moving away from going up in price as well let me ask you in the remaining time about crypto. you do cover that as well. you have some thoughts about the relative attractiveness of ethereum >> you seen bitcoin rise because it boils back into a risk. ic l-- i like to point out crypt is a risk. gold is off. cri crypto is up we think about the crypto with the potential for the greatst use, we think ethereum hasf recg

paid out potential for aml crackdown. we look out further forward, ethereum has the ability to overcome the esg concerns because it will move to a proof by stake which reduces flrj con su drk energy consumption we think about the longer term growth which makes these risk on sates. now i have to think all over again. there's a new target on wall street we'll tell you the name and why they are betting against the stock. with producer prices seeing the fastest one year record, b of a is breaking out the food

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stocks it's adding 3% to bring monthly gains to 130%. p petco down 9%. how about those metal and mining na names? they've been lowing. copper hit the lowest several since april. this has been one of the leading movers to the down side with 30% drop from the highs and a sudden about face just now. let's get to rahel for our cnbc news update. >> here is your update at this

hour u.s. attorney general merrick garland announcing stepped up plans to monitor and stop threats from domestic terrorists including working with tech companies to eliminate terrorist content online garland says there will be no political influence. >> there's no place for partisanship in the enforcement of the law the justice department will not tolerate any such abuse of authority. >> tonight on the news the plan to fight domestic terrorism and who is on the top of the list. illinois emergency crews are rushing to protect the river from run off before they extinguish a massive fire at a chemical plant an evacuation order remains in effect even though the chief says air quality readings are good major league baseball announcing plans to halt use of illegal substances to tamper with or doctor baseballs pitchers will be ejected and suspended for breaking the rules

for ten games. you're now up to date. will amazon finally disrupt the grocery store? there's a new target and the estimate gets an upgrade it's coming up in rapid fire right after this plapcid to relieve occasional nerve aches, weakness and discomfort. try nervivenerve relief. there's interest you accrue, and interests you pursue. plans for the long term, and plans for a long weekend. assets you allocate, and ones you hold tight. at thrivent, we believe money is a tool, not goal. and with the right guidance, you can get the financial clarity you need, and live a life rich in meaning, and gratitude. to learn more, text thrive to 444555,

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. all right. welcome back let's catch you up on a couple of stories that should be on your radar now it's time for rapid fire basic the company does it's designed for disruption. it's called amazon fresh it will feature cashierless walk out technology it's set the open in washington. amazon is only the fifth largest grocer in country. they have 3% of total market share. we have been hearing about amazon trying this, that and the other. tell me why i should pay attention to this effort more than all of the other things they've been trying in the past.

>> it comes at a really interesting day. today is four years since amazon announced it was acquiring whole foods. grocers worldwide shook with four the market share amazon holds is still pretty low this announce m ment today about this full size store with the walk out technology is a first of its kind. that had only been prooeviously available at the smaller amazon go stores. running that grocer as is with some sort of prime infusions there. a lot with that new just walk out technology i think this could be a precursor to a larger roll out in future. that's why we need to pay attention to it.

amazon online market share didn't move like you might have expected it to during that time. the market share is about 29% of an line grocery. that's lower than it was in 2018 by industry estimates. >> if they say we're doing it because we can if they want the business to be profitable, that's a different story. if they want a test case for technology, that's a different story. i can't figure out what it wants here >> that would not be the kind of

thing that you would think that our elected representatives would look on kindly when you're able to pick up these times, one way you can verify your identity is through home print with privacy concerns, i'm thinking is amazon the company that you want to give your finger print to. the second thing is, with grocery margins so tight any way and the competition so fierce, it's an interesting place for amazon to be trying to make a mark >> a quick final thought, dom. >> i would say amazon probably knows more about me than my own wife or mother do. a palm print is an incremental stage. to leave you on a final note, i believe that amazon's intention is to keep building the rolodex.

i think amazon goal is to try to get 100% touched it means everybody in america is the goal to become a customer of their company. >> humble ambitions there. next up, chobani is working on an ipo they are eyeing a debut in the second half of this year the journal in february said they could be worth up to 10 billion dollar there's clearly an appetite for dairy companies, alternative or otherwise. oatly chshares are up 35%. this feels like an ancient company now. >> when talking about hot dairy stocks, we have something going

on interesting about chobani and going public, they developed this yogurt, they have figured out a way to take the milk sugars out at 80 calories a serving. if you take the lactose out you'll appeal to a much broader swath of people and they are competing with the plant based yogurt products. i think this indicates that chobani thinks they are in it for the long haul. interesting if you look at the estimate the global market will decline by 8% this year. >> it exploded so much especially greek yogurt. i guess better late than never >> exactly i was just thinking about your point with the greek yogurt and how so many of the recipes sea you can soubstitute sour cream

with greek yogurt. i think it's sbinteresting we'r talking about something like oatly that's nondairy. it's interesting time to go public now seems like the hot time for them was maybe a couple of years ago. >> maybe like 15 maybe when i was in college. all right. we're not going to bet up on them let's move along and talk about draft kings. they are alleging they are polished i rememberage and high profile u.s. partnerships are front for global gaming black market run by the third part that was after speaking to former employees now draft king stock was down as much as 7% on this report. it's down about 4.5% they dismissed it writing that

sb tech, we report add thorough review of their business pra practice still in late september and they have binding orders for this year and for 2022 production what are people saying >> this is interesting it's been one of those short sellers that's gotten a lot more notoriety over the last several years here.

what i find curious is how difficult it must be for a short seller in this kind of a market in the reddit wall street bets world where it takes is some message board post and a few million people getting around and saying let's push some people out i guess when it comes to this issue to this kind of report and say you have taken a short position, you better get ready to reap the benefits or reap the world wind because it could be very quickly before some of these could circle around and say there's an opportunity to squeeze some shorts in there >> we are seeing increase in short positiopositions. number two, i want to point out draft kings said you're looking at a report by a company that's taken a position and has an incentuscentive to drive down t stock price. number three, i spent hours on the phone this morning talking to gaming insiders and sources

about this my take away is sound and fury signify nothing. for instance, the managing partner at sharp al add vieszers which is a venture capital firm focused on sports betting. the bread crumbs are there it's not that important to draft kings bottom line. third is the rigor of getting a gaming license draft king s confident they have done that with sb tech >> quick final point on this, what is sb tech? >> it's a tech provider.

they have technical operations in china if those revenues disappear, it would be less than meaningless to draft kings bottom liep in the united states. >> what i've been following kind of rooms and twitter, these are the issues being debated how important is sb tech why are people exposed to draft kings and do they have the smoking gun here it's great explainer that report itself is worth the read >> zillow users are rejoicing. the company upgraded its zestimate model. it's supposed to be more nimble to keep up with market trends.

zillow is down 15% >> i'm not sure how much of that is because of the interest that's being driven around and traffic on sththeir sites or pel are not visiting zillow as much because they will using other platforms. this is a time to strike while the iron is hot for these guys there's so many more eyeballs. mine are included that are focusing on some of these property values and trying to get an estimate about what it could be without having to engage a broker per se or having to sign an agreement with them to have them represent you or anything like that i want to know what the market is right now i'm not sure it carries into the future if the housing markets to school off a bit a lot of folks i'm talking to were in the real estate side of things say it's due for a pause at this point given the pandemic i continue to watch. >> you're driving e ing trafficr site

they already changed the property values will update. most people are finding they are closer but maybe to dom's point the stock might be struggling bit in anticipation of the hangover once this rapid demand burst from covid goes away >> yeah, exactly how long can we all be zillow skroling and wondering what it might be like to have a second home or a bigger home or a escape the isolation that we felt as long as data gets more accurate that can be a good thing for buyers or sellers. it's opinion pretty disappointing to look at a zestimate and see the actual value and have it be so far off. >> now that i own it, i don't want my appraisal so go up they can lowball it now. i think it should be half of that be. >> especially for the tax bill >> exactly come on, help me out here.

thank you, everybody still ahead, elon musk recently repledged the tesla would bitcoin wants it to come cleaner. crypto popping on the news it's still over 40k today we'll have more on that in a moment my retirement plan with voya keeps me moving forward. they guide me with achievable steps that give me confidence. this is my granddaughter...she's cute like her grandpa. voya doesn't just help me get to retirement... ...they're with me all the way through it. voya. be confident to and through retirement. voya. be confident to and through retirement. these days you have to keep everything moving and reinvent the wheel. with a hybrid, you can do both. that's why manufacturers are going hybrid with ibm. with watson on a hybrid cloud factories can use ai to automate the little things so they can focus on the next big thing. businesses that want to innovate at scale are going with a smarter hybrid cloud using the technology and expertise of ibm.

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global mining is already powered by renewable energy. there were a will the of comparisons and have have been to put this in context cambridge estimates bitcoin mining emits more co2 that entire countries like chile. one reason this has been so hard to measure, a lot of mieping has been self-proported. some estimated are based on the source of energy in the location where that mining might have taken place. analysts say that miners are likely to use whatever is the cheapest source of electricity they can find and sometimes that is renewable energy especially in places like canada and i

iceland. there has been some progress lately mining has opinion banned in major regions. specifically some of those places that have been seen as the headquarters for bitcoin mining others are moving to regions like north america it's also a new mining council created to create a little more disclosure for some of those miners recently. >> okay. maybe we need to solidify this data a little bit. thank you. despite some reservations about bitcoin, investors are starting to get back in. total just $10 million last week that's down significantly from the record of about $140 million of outflows the week before. today crypto asset manager announced $70 billion. hunter, what makes you an attractive investment in. >> great to be with you.

i think that the voting confidence in this round is people seem the maturity of the crypto space and today it's the largest crypto currency in the world. they see that more and more investors are finding a use for crypto sates in that more and more investors are finding a use for cryptomanagement, and an import the tool therein is relying on a diversified portfolio, and we're the leader in provide that for the space. >> how big do you think you can grow all the concerns about mining and ecofriendlyness, there was the craziness surrounding that,

and in affects, for today. we have quite a bit more regulation from different regulatory bodies. then there was concern around how to securely hold assets, so as not to lose them, and fast-forward today, we have great custodians, and companies like bitwise that will take care of that for you. with the space continues to progress, more and more things will be expected, will go under the microscope and expected to improve. i think the energy usage of mining is one of those i think it's very natural. the states can improve poj it. you heard the numbers from cambridge and others that the energy mix is all right slightly heavier towards renewables, but i think it will continue to improve. i think the other way to interpret the bitcoin mining attention is that it's a good reminder that the story is

bigger than just bitcoin today crypto is over a trillion dollar market cap, and bit counsel is less than half of that it seems like the bitcoin mining issue could be the reason that others could flourish, whereas bitcoin may not be able to run away with it. >> we just spoke with goldman's manager, and would recommend ethereum for those purposes. thank for your time, hunter. check out this chart that run could soon be on the floor as bf was 's oa rnit one of the companies most exposed to inflation. we'll reveal it, right after this okay, imagine this... your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee...

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welcome back producer prices, look at which chart, climbing from may a year earlier, the fastest increase on record a note outlining the food and beverage stock exchange. kate rogers joins me now with those names. hi, kate >> hey, kelly, looking at inflation over the next 12 months, b of a says the

companies with the greatest exposure are campbell's soup, general mills, kraft heinz, and conagra. year to date the best performer, kraft heinz, the worst campbell's soup. remember, of course, we're seeing prices rise, and that could hit consumers there, moving ahead this might not come as a surprise since we've been talking about it so much, but mentions of inflation have increased on q1 earnings call, b of a says while inflation has accelerated since the beginning of the year, many companies have hedged against it, leading more on price inflation that will return to most and promoting and that could eat into the impact of these price increases. interestingly, while it seems that companies will be able to pass through pricing while retailers do at a time the hit on the margin, the note says it

could be a lag effect overall. hedge strategies are protecting some companies now from rising costs. the basket indicates that spot inflation was up 33.5% year on year, kelly, the highest level since tracking began in 2016. >> a good reminder, it would have had a lot bigger pinch if they hadn't hedged it a bit. thank you, kate. that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" is looking at the names to buy if the fed stays the course, and names to buy if they pivot both of those basket rht teth baks,ig

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welcome to "power lunch," everybody. nice to be back together again we are 24 hours now away from the fed meeting, and a big jump in inflation today, in that ppi report wholesale prices is the fed about to set off a taper tantrum number two >> or ha