tv Fast Money CNBC June 16, 2021 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
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>> everyone thought that in the last few months. >> that's true and i think people are still positioned too much against the bond market but i think you have to be alert for that big tech cap is cheaper than it was. >> gold continuing to slide. >> and the s&p down half a percent. that's going to do it for us on fed day on "closing bell." have a good evening. "fast money" begins now. live from the nasdaq market site over looking new york city's time square, this is "fast money", i'm courtney in for melissa lee. tonight's trader lineup tim seymour, steve grasso, brian kelly and guy adami. tonight on "fast" a wake up call for the market as traders digest the fed decision we break down all of the market fall out straight ahead. plus charged up. shares of gm zooming higher as the company doubles down on ev
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ambitions what the company said today that has investors breaking into the stock. and break out the sun screen pour a my tie, is time to book yourself a ticket on this trade? we're hitting the high seas. we're going to start with the major shift from the fed, the central bank signaling it is finlly ready to raise rates. sending yield on u.s. treasuries sharply higher we have all of the details >> as fed chair j. powell put it this was the talk about talking about tapering meeting, that means no timeline when the fed will start to reduce asset purchases but powell promised it would be orderly, methodical and transparent when it does happen and said making substantial progress in the recovery remains the same. >> we should system respect continue . >> should consider --
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at coming meetings the committee will assess the progress towards our goals and will give advance notice before announcing any decision. >> now powell also explicited ly acknowledged that higher inflation is a risk raising the forecast from 2.4 to 3.4%. does moderate back to 2.1% next year >> we are also seeing upward pressure on prices from the rebound in spending, as the economy continues to reopen. particularly as supply bottle necks have limited how quickly production in some sectors can respond in the near-term these bottleneck effects have been larger than anticipated. >> powell emphasized the central bank will use all its tools of inflation rises more persistently but humble about the ability to accurately forecast during a crisis and warned the risks around variants and vaccination levels and is not declaring victory just yet
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>> thank you very much for breaking it down for us. we're going to go ahead and trade this one steve, i'm going to start with you. i think you have some interesting thought s about inflation and you're seeing pockets of deflation >> if you look at the ten-year, if you look at break evens, if you look at a host of other signals, i get it, we went from 50 bips to 1.74 for setting the ten-year but we're backing off that shouldn't we be at 2 2.5? 3? for everything we hear shouldn't break evens be worse so chairman powell talked about supply chain disruptions, those are freeing up mailbox money is probably coming to an end atcy certain point, you would think, i think we're in a inflation terrelle pryo in a inflation spiral. i think we entered the pandemic
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in a deflation environment and that could have been the spiral and now we're flattening out, that's the reason we're not seeing spikes >> well, there's no question, look, the fed acted quickly and with extreme force along with then-monetary policy was then fiscal policy and here we are you know, we spent so much time in the last month defining the word, understanding the word, transitory, and persistent popped up, on the opposite side, possibly there to could be stubborn inflation there i'm focused on the very uneven labor market that's where the fed is hanging its head, there's reason, a lot of folks aren't running back to work, but the things most important about today were you went from 4 to 7 fed members expecting hike in 2023 and all
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of them the following year, they clearly upgraded their inflation forecast and guess what, i think it was a day the fed gained back credibility from the market. i know that's not what a lot of people will say is their take a away but how could they not that sent the signal that shot a crow the bow that that yes we'll be the short end of the curve, the fed are not asleep at the switch and could react at some point. >> bk, what do you think do you want to talk about the unemployment or inflation, what did you take away from powell today? >> i think what you need to do is just look at what the market did, right so we had yield going higher but yield on the front end of the curve. two year, five year yield where 30-year yield didn't move that much that tells us it's market is pricing in a rate hike that may
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be more aggressive than we thought yesterday but the dollar moving higher, now that's a drag on commodities which actually, whether the fed intended or not can make this a transitory blip in inflation so you could see commodity prices come down i don't know if i would go so far to say deflation spiral yet but let's call it non-inflationar yrks and surprisingly, i don't know if j. powell wanted to do this but he did what he needed to accomplish, to cool down the inflation narrative, which he's done now the question is how much damage does it do to the stock market we'll find out in the next week or so. >> guy, do you think he cooled down the inflation market even if he took the expectation from 2.4% to 3.4% >> yeah, i don't and you know, this is a great conversation i understand what steve is saying
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i think we all would agree the greatest deflation force in mankind is technology and the speed in which it's become integral part of our life is astonishing and the fed can't win that battle. there's inflation in all of the wrong places, places they don't want it. that's a completely different conversation i'm intrigue that fed chair powell said he's not ready to declare victory, thank you very much that's like 3-0 start in 162-game season saying we're close, it's complete horse hockey, if you will. my take away is i think the commodity trade will continue to work though it's derailed in the last couple weeks. i think the banks will get their second, third bid on the back of some of these comments today. >> yeah, regional banks moved up nicely. >> regional banks and again the interest rate sensitivity there
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is high and we're not in a environment where rates moving higher is a credit issues, not yet, i look at the correlation to the broader economy and yeah, it's interesting guy pointed out that this wasn't a great day for material stocks, what's that tell you about the messaging? again, the fact that the dollar is probably the biggest story of the day, in terms of a relative move to everything they down almost 1%. i don't think that's a function of weakness, i think it's really a function of at least the expectations that the market may begin to price in more look, everything we heard today was upgrade gdp, a sense that an uneven labor market, ultimately they want to get full employment that's a case all of the reflation trades are very much in play. >> also you have to juxtapose it
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with the reopening of the economy, even if rates flatten or come in a bit, i'm long diversified chemical plays, there's going to be a huge reopening that could counteract whatever non-rate spike we do get. >> i want to get to what tim brought up, when talking about the dollar, because bk, you said before powell spoke, that the fed needed to thread a small needle and keep the dollar steady the dollar was not steady, it spiked higher. earlier you said j. powell did what he needed to do >> so he did what he needed to do for today the risk is, if you get a much-stronger dollar, definitely did what he needed to today because it put some water on the coals, right, but the problem you have, if you get a very strong dollar that's going to slow global growth i said it before, i'll say it
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again, the dollar is a new vix, it acts as a global wrecking ball so if you get a dollar that moves much higher, 1% is a start, if we get a sustained move here that will be a problem for the global economy now, add into that that we have this kind of tenuous situation where, yeah, people have been able to raise prices but there are also supply chain constrain so it doesn't really feel like the economy is growing at the pace that the fed thinks it is so that's the case, and interest rate goes up and the housing market starts to slump and people all of a sudden aren't able to earn what they can earn and the dollar goes up and commodities go down then we hit the deflation spiral. >> i want to withdraw the term spiral. >> it's too late. >> is too late. >> i think you're allowed to withdraw retract it
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>> yes. >> we're going to bring in cio of advisor group and cnbc contributor, peter, thanks for being with us. in the notes you are saying, today is a wake up call when it comes to tapering. elaborate on that for us. >> we see now peak dovishness, not that they had turned hawkish, far from it, but they're a hair less dovish they've laid the ground work for a taper beginning. i think the july meeting will start to get more details. i don't know how they will tie it in with jacksonville in august and next meeting in september. but the wheels are now in motion, the runway is getting very short for the fed to continue to have excuses not to do this. i mean, they have currently emergency policy, policy that was the same a year ago at almost the depths of the shutdown so it is getting more difficult for them to
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substantiate why they're doing what they're doing particularly as they were aways off from substantial progress which is complete nonsense, while they may not be at maximum employment i argue we're at maximum employment opportunities with record job openings we don't have price stability right now. we have big-time major price instability with inflation currently in the system. whether it's transitory or not, we have inflation now that is slowing parts of the economy so it's stagflation and potentially going to inhibit other parts of the economy, that's not a good mix. >> going back to taper point before inflation, powell said they're talking about talking about it, i mean, how close do you really think that is? to your point, i understand perhaps we need it it seems a little wild to have a fed balance sheet with the way
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it looks with the economic data coming in the way it season add gdp forecast but how close realistically is tapering? >> well, essentially taper has begun because he talked about it, whether they officially announce it in july or lead the way in august and officially declare it in september, the verbal cat is out of the bag, so we are just going to begin in terms of the market response the physical part of the actual taper may not happen until september but the markets will be ahead before they actually start. >> peter, it's tim, thanks for joining us, as always. i'm not expecting warm and fuzzies here but didn't the fed regain a little bit of cred cred intertoday credibility today. and he threw in the oversight of systematic dynamic for the market which i think you would
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pick up as well. >> in terms of cred iibility they were on the cusp of losing it by not acknowledging reality since mid-april we saw 0.9 month over month cpi, and next month 0.7 cpi number estimate was 0.5 and we're talking about commodity prices, 1% below the highest level since 2015 some commodity prices pulled back but others like oil are now at recent highs. we seen the number of job openings go from 7.5 million to 9.3 million since the last fed meeting. so the fed is basically playing catch up and i think within the next couple months we will continue to see hot cpi numbers or pc, however you measure inflation, which i think we're going to get, the fed will be mugged by reality. in the sense they think they're
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still in control of this tightening process they have their plan they're going to taper along a certain timeline and raise rates on a certain timeline, but if this inflation story is not transitory the market is going to take control of the process. as it did the first three months of the year when ten-year yield went from 90 basis points to almost 180 and five-year twenty from 35 to north of 90 almost in a straight line >> so peter, i get that, we actually came from 50 bips in the ten-year to one and three-quarter percent, where do we say this is the line in the snand do i watch the two and five years break even? do i watch the ten year? what's your inflation gauge that you watch every morning, every day, every waking moment as an economyist. >> certainly the break evens yes, to tim's point earlier,
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powell at least for today sort of reigned in the inflation expectation as break evens fell but we have to see how long that last because we can be sure and the market knows this that the fed is going to be glacial in this monetary pull back they are still going to be way overduing it for a very long period of time so, yeah, there was a shake up today and the dollar had a nice rally but currency trader nose the ed's not getting ahead of any curve, it's just a matter how far behind they will be through this tightening process. >> you noted it was pretty unbelievable that the housing market wasn't more of a focus today from j. powell, what are you seeing there is worrisome to you? why did you want powell to address it >> if there's one area most sensitive to interest rates it's housing and 13% year-over-year home price gains is dangerous,
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it's great if the homeowner wants to sell but inevitably slows things down because people can't afford it. at the same time they're buying $40 billion of sbs per month so there's not one question on aggressive home price gains that the fed is now pouring oil and gas on the fire, and to not be asked about it and to say to the camera with a straight face, we still need to do qe an have had rates at zero is completely disconnected from any reality. >> peter, thank you very much for joining us today, we'll obviously have you back as cnbc crib contributor many times to come let's pick up on the interest rates, mortgage rates and housing should it be addressed, what could be a trade. >> one, it should absolutely be addressed. it's insane they're buying
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mortgage-backed securities when the housing market is ripping. that's just insane policy. so what's the trade off? i think you need to watch the housing stocks you know if you're going to get interest rates that rise higher than today at a fast pace you're going to reduce the housing market you're going to hurt the housing market peter made an excellent point, the taper has begun and that's the take away today, and the market will show what the market believes is going to be pace and it will hit different parts of the economy and housing is ground zero for that >> guy, last word on this. >> steve brought up great point, why aren't ten years higher 2.5% and he addressed it and in my opinion because they're buying $120 billion worth of stuff, not a to b, necessarily, but it's a to b to c to d and one of the
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unintended or maybe intended consequences of the fed is t they took price discovery out of the equation. if you take that out you have the rates steve talked about earlier in the show. >> thank you very much, gentlemen, we're going to wrap up that discussion but coming up, president biden and russian president vladimir putin going face-to-face in geneva, why traders watching following this high-stakes summit. and gm moving higher plugging into ev market, buckle up we've diving into that trade next "fast money" back in two [sfx]: happy screaming
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. welcome back to "fast money. president biden is heading back to washington at this hour following a high-stakes meeting with russian president vladimir putin in geneva. let's go to eamon javers live on the ground in geneva tonight hi, eamon. >> hi, courtney. both presidents have now left town and the big question is what did they accomplish here in geneva a lot of this was agreeing to continue to talk-variety of negotiations there were a couple specifics they were able to pin down starting with both country ambassadors going back to the capital. that's one take away that was
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viewed as the bare minimum for a successful summit here in geneva also they are agreeing to a bilateral strategic dialogue, they're going to talk about arms controls, they're both committed to that, and they're going to talk about krooibs cybersecurity, agreeing to ongoing conversations with those. preside president biden giving putin a list of critical insfra attack . >> i pointed out that we have significant cyber capability and he knows it. he doesn't know exactly what it is but it's significant. if in fact they violate these basic norms we will respond. he knows >> so biden explaining there that there will be specific outcomes for specific russian actions if the russians choose to go down that path for his part, vladimir putin was
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quite defensive, responding with every allegations against russia with another back against the united states. nonetheless he said it was a positive spin to the day's events here's putin. >> translator: in my view, we are acting absolutely appropriately to counter threats that emerge against us, and i think for the situation to be truly stable we need to reach an agreement on the proper rules of conduct that we talked about, stability, cybersecurity, tackling the issues that have to do with regional conflicts i think we can reach an agreement on everything. >> and courtney, there was a testy moment at the end of the conference that president biden gave he was asked by a reporter why he's convinced that vladimir putin will change his behavior after the summit today biden turned around and responded very sharply to that reporter and said, i'm not
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confident he's going to change his behavior, we can't be sure necessarily that he is going to change he wants to say to the world she's not been snowed by vladimir putin he was so angry at that question he later apologized for it courtney. >> interesting stuff, been quite a full day for you eamon, thank you. we'll have full coverage of the biden-putin summit with shepard smith at 7:00 p.m. eastern tonight. let's trade this tim, you lived in russia for a while and follow this closely, beyond the geo politics what did you take away with the news today. >> the one sentence on geopolitics is that diplomatic channels need to be open to russia, silence is the worse for both countries, this is a start. the most important dynamic is one where if you think of the movement in the oil and stability in the oil market a lot of it coming from the opec
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informal agreement between saudi and russia and non-opec producers to stabilize the price of oil, the game of chicken or dare i say russian roulette, three months earlier going into covid is what put an enormous weight on terrible fundamentals in the sector so the dynamic for russia and epec -- opec are extremely important it in terms of energy consistency with the rest of the world that's what they want to be and through all difficult periods of russia history they want to establish they're in position, and whether the rest of the world wants it is another story, it's around oil as in an insignificant market it's 5% weighting or less in imcm, but the diplomatic story today is very important for our country.
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>> obviously, guy, eamon was talking about the cybersecurity discussions that went on anything that was said today make you look at some of these cybersecurity stocks more closely with potential threat or less of a threat, although i'm not sure we got that message today. >> yeah, i actually think the threat has been heightened today, believe it or not i can say maybe in terms of russia-u.s. cyber but there's a lot of actors that sort of insert themselves and create tension between the two countries, i'm pointing right at china on that one. this is not going away it will only get worse look at the stocks for proof, z scaler had a tremendous couple weeks, crowdstrike is on fire, palo alto networks, and another one i will throw in, sort of second derivatives, i think palantir is a winner in terms of their relationship with the government and what they do with big data so all those names will continue to work. although the rhetoric has gone
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down i think the threat has gotten elevated. >> makes sense to me obviously cybersecurity is an area that will only become more intense as technology gets more intense over the years we're just getting started here on "fast money", here's what's coming up next. >> announcer: buckle up, gm is upping its spending on electric vehicles so is this the car maker to plug into plus all aboard, we're setting sails on the cruise lines and other travel stocks. when "fast money" returns.
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i'm evie's best camper badge. but even i'm not as memorable as eating and it orchestration by cdw®. turkey hill chocolate chip cookie dough creamy premium ice cream and chasing fireflies. don't worry about me. i'm fine. you can't beat turkey hill memories. welcome back to "fast money. shares of general motors accelerating today, the automaker announcing plans to spend another $8 billion on it's
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ev-ambitions, let's get details, hi, phil. >> courtney, this is the third time we've heard from general motors in the last year and half they said this is how much we will spend developing electric and autonomous vehicles through 2025 and look how the spending has increased. before the pandemic they said we'll spend $20 billion through '25 and upped it to $27 billion in november last year and have increased it again to $35 billion. one of the key points in their extra $8 billion that they're going to be spending, the development of two new battery plans. -- plants. so they're going to have four here because u.s. ev sells expected to sell more than 1 million vehicles in the industry by 2025 and general meteor -- motors intended to by a big part of that those four plants are key part of meeting demand. >> i have confidence that with these four battery plants that we'll have by the end of 2025 we
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will have the capability to make sure we're able to deliver on those ev's and our goal and commitment to continue to work to be number one in ev's in the united states and in other markets around the world. >> in terms of global sales of electric vehicles, i get this question a lot, where does gm rank well technically right now they're number three those numbers are a little off should be tesla number one 456,000 told and vw number two, at 227 and number three is gm at 214,000 vehicles sold. by the way, gm expects to sell 1 million electric vehicles annually by 2025 but it's all of the automakers whether or not they're making big commitments like general motors or smaller commitments that they really haven't outlined like staalantis parent of jeep and ram, they are also
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benefit because the ev plan spend $330 billion is committed bit industry to be spent by 2025, an increase of 40% in the last year >> that is a really eye-popping number phil, what about the semidconductor chip shortage and how it plays into higher expense for a company like gm for the development of electric vehicles >> well the chip shortage is more of an acute, near-term issue, and they're doing better job than most other automakers in managing that, proof of that came today when they raised their guidance for the first half of this year. they expect to make 8.5 to $9.5 billion. there was a point earlier this year when people said, look, we expect them to do a little bit better than, you know, 5.5 to $6 billion in the first half of this year. no 8.5 to $9.5 billion, far better than what many people expected that's because they've managed the chip crisis and of course
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trucks and suv's with record demand, record pricing, that's factoring into gm doing really well right now. >> so, phil, when you look at how much money isaiaford is putting into the bronco and it's not an ev s does it make you think they're taking their eyes off the puck. >> no. >> explain that to me. >> no because when they said we need to make the bronco they looked at their product portfolio couple years ago and said where is ford lacking, and if you look at that lineup couple years ago it was clearly lacking in suv's the wrangler was killing everybody. they said why not bring back the bronco you got great brand recognition. s of you have a product that you haven't had in that segment. let's bring it back. you're seeing already strong demand for the bronco. i wouldn't be surprised if we see an electric version of the bronco at some point in the next couple years i think the bronco is one element of ford saying you got to take care of customers who
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are not going to wait for an electric vehicle while planning for the future with evs. >> thank you very much, phil let's trade this, bk, you buying gm ford tesla? if you play ev, where do you go? >> so i think, listen, what you need for batteries in ev is a ton of rare earths and all of them right now come from china eventually that's going to have to come to the u.s really only one way to play it, mountain pass, mp. you don't have to bet on gm, ford or bronco or not, by the way, the bronco is amazing looking. but you don't have to bet whether or not those are going to win, just bet on the picks and shovels and i think it's rare earth. >> okay. rare earth instead of one of the automakers coming up d.o.j. crack down sending shares tumbling after-hours. we break it down straight ahead. and we're straighting transports, ceo of ups speaking
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industry hitting a major road block sending shares willis towers watson dropping at the end of the day let's get details. >> the justice deputy filed anti trust law enforcement to block $30 million mergeaer between second and third largest insurance brokawers to make them number one since broker. not just brokeage though, they're consult an thes and crafters and administrator of big employee pension plans and health exchanges with 60% and 95% market share for those services federal prosecutors said internal e-mails at aon self-identified as an oligrch yrks and said it would have more leverage when the willis deal closes and -- called it inadequate to protect
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american consumers and many american businesses rely on these particular services. the negotiations apparently were ineffective. prosecutors are ready to litigate the merger deal was announced march of last year aon stock up 15% year-to-date. willis towers watson up 12%, and seem to be rebounded in extended trading. >> thank you very much, contessa bk, i want you to help us trade this one it seems like a given after hearing those market shares that this wouldn't get through. >> yeah, an kd also, listen, they've got issues in the eu as well this is not the only play, the only front line on their battle here i'm a little bit surprised that the talks broke down because you did have both companies agree to divest certain aspects of their company to get the deal together that being said, i wouldn't touch either of these. i think, if they decide to fight
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it it's going to be a long litigation and there's another front to this battle in the eu, and i'm not sure you can really short it because now you got everyone involved in the deal has to unwind positions, what not. so if you are looking saying, hey, maybe they're a bargain because they're cheaper than yesterday, i would say probably not the case, just stay away. >> guy, what do you think? a bargain? or too complicated to play >> i can speak intelligently about a few things, this isn't one of them but gives us an opportunity to talk about insurers, prudential has been on fire, met life just traded through the highs we saw in october 2007 going back 14 years, above 61. these stocks, if you think rates are going higher like i do, i think you stay with these names. can't speak to the names contessa mentioned but look at met, as long as it holds above 61, if you think rates will go higher these stocks will go higher as well. >> guy's right
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these stocks have been on a run. i get a little worried about the threats that face them there's credit threats there's covid dynamic threats for life insurers, what not, some unknowns there. i think overall there's some interest rate threats. they've had such a good run and frankly there's social pressure on insurance companies they're crushing people with briggets in case you're listening i do think that the story which was also part of the financial story, part of a valuation construct, you're starting to see some folks rerate pricing power. i think you're running into head winds after what's been a sweet spot. >> i saw premium prices myself doing research, i was shocked at some of those. coming up, the delivery wars are heating up head of ups weighing in son rising competition, we got the exclusive details next plus setting sail on travel stocks as the country reopens, is time to book your ticket on this trade
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than 7% in a month, we hear from ceo at cnbc's global evolve summit today here's what she said is keeping her up at night. >> there are many sleepless nights because our competitors are changing, our customers are changing and the rate of change is accelerating. so it's like, are we looking around corners, are we fast enough are we leaning into the customers experience that our customers' want. we can declared 16 customer journeys to really improve the customer experience end-to-end from the shipper to the recipient. we're making very good progress here but are we moving fast enough i'm afraid -- i'm afraid of that, that we're not moving fast enough >> some nice honesty from carol, can you see our full interview with her and all our big interview from cnbc global summit on demand at cnbcevents.com/evolve. let's trade up, is
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st -- ups. steve, what do you make of the shippers, talking about supply crunches that's a different level but if you play delivery who do you play? >> ups is up 19%-year to date. fedex has lagged up 13% year-to-date she is right you don't know there are plenty of competition. you don't know where the competition is coming from i own wrk, west rock, a paper container company, either way you go, whoever wins there's more packages we can all agree on that. so i'm playing it from a different way because i don't know how this will shake out nor does she so how do i know. >> bk, you brought us rare earth, when i asked about electric vehicles, do you have a back doorway to trade delivery and transports too >> no. i mean, these are tough. i think probably what you want to do, i agree with steve, stay
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away from fedex and ups, because that area is in the middle of flux but i think you look at the rail roads, as you see more domestic type of deliveries happening, more domestic production happening, the rail roads are probably the place to be because there really isn't any competition. it's not like you're going to build another rail road any time soon that's how i would play the reshoring effect of the supply chain. >> yeah, she talked about seeing around corners, don't know if we have footage of guy adami working for ups, there's reasons he's no longer with the firm no, look, up, is, has, i think, done an amazing job showing capacity discipline, they have pricing power, i don't think we're life cycle if so you stay away from transports, iyt dipped below 50, this is an opportunity to pick this up. some of the numbers spike, give some back, i think take a look. >> guy, last word on this one.
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>> tim is right, i did work at ups for a day, i'm the only employee in the history of the firm having been there one day, something i'm extraordinarily proud of, number one number two, i think you buy fedex throw 20 multiple on the $18 you will earn, talk about a stock trading 360. i think they reporting on june 24th. >> all right, we're going to pay attention to that on june 24th coming up, we're checking in on the travel trade what we spotted in the options market, for one of the big cruise lines, we break down that trade when "fast money" returns. . oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this... your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee... yeah i should've just led with that...
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welcome back here's a sneak peek at the cramer cam, watch ceo of centene at the top of the hour on "mad money" the travel industry is ready to rock, that's the message from some of the industry's top players. we have the details. >> we spoke with the hyatt ceo and ceo of carnival about the state of travel industry, what's clear the reoffcovery is here but highly confined to
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beaches, in places like florida and hawaii and has helped hyat's portfolio of resorts out perform. >> we're running something like 30% above where we were in 2019 for our u.s. resorts, for example, over the july 4th, two-week period that spans july 4th. so really significant improvement. >> hyatt is betting down on business traveller this fall, they made 40 to 50% revenue from the corporate traveller. on to the cruise lines, the fate of the industry lands in the hands of the lawsuit where if they mandate the vaccine they will be subject to $5,000 fine per passenger. with 200 passengers that's $1 million. here's what carnival ceo arnold donald told me about whether he's willing to pay that fine. >> everyone's trying to do what
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they believe is the right thing. >> so will you pay the $5,000. >> -- by working together we think we'll get there. >> so if you have to pay it you'll pay it? >> i'm not anticipating we'll ever have to pay a fine. i'm confident we'll work stuff out with the governor and with cdc. >> a ruling from the judge in tampa is expected any day now. wall street will be watching that event very closely. remember florida made up about 60% of all sailing pre-covid so to return they need florida to work they need their ships back to sea. meantime they're prioritizing other markets, first sailing out of galveston, texas, this july, and others out of seattle to alaska courtney >> thank you, very much, sima, covered a lot of ground. tony zhang what did you see in the options market.
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>> we had a pretty strong day for travel stocks and carnival trading actively, 137,000 contracts traded today on carnival today we saw a fairly plain vanilla earnings bet for carnival which reports here in about two weeks or so, where a trader bought about 1200 contracts of the july $30 call options paying $1.32 on average for these calls. so this is a strategy with a break-even price of $31.32 which is about 7% higher from where the stock closed today but this is a strategy that only risks 4.5% if the stock was to decline here on earnings in a couple weeks i think this is a great example how investors can take advantage of up-side exposure going into an earnings event while risking only 4.5%. because this is a stock that has been very choppy there's a risk we'll likely see another revenues or perhaps earnings miss in the down side.
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>> tony, thank you very much guy, i want to trade this with you very quickly what do you make of the travel stocks? any looking attractive to you here? >> well tony seen something, you got an upgrade in wolfe research and carnival and maybe one other name. if you look at ccl, nowhere near the highs we saw in january 2020 you get some decent news in earnings and maybe it's a worth in play. i like what tony just said. >> all right for more "options action" be sure to tune into the full show friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time up next, your final trades a th, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya. ah, they're getting so smart.
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you're in for a brewed awakening. for technology that moves you forward, trust cdw amplified services welcome back to "fast" check out shares of amc, pulling back today, managing to close above 55% a share. we have a big show coming your way tomorrow we're diving into the blockbuster action in amc, what's driving the trade, what's at stake, what's really playing out under the surface of this market be sure to catch our "fast money" special tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. but it's now time for the final trades, let's go around the horn, guy, starting with you >> palantir, courtney. >> bk?
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>> for me, it's cme, play the volatility on all the asset classes. >> mr. seymour. >> well hit today two and half year highs before pulling back, chevron. >> and mr. grasso? >> everybody's worried about rates going higher, i don't see them going highe my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field fur aor all investors there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, just trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain, but educate and teach and put it in context call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. dow slipping 206 points,
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