tv Power Lunch CNBC June 17, 2021 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
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keeping your oysters business growing has you swamped. you need to hire. i need indeed indeed you do. the moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a shortlist of quality candidates from a resume data base claim your seventy-five-dollar credit when you post your first job at indeed.com/promo hi, everybody. welcome back to "power lunch." i'm kelly evans. along with dom chu meme stocks are the biggest story of 2021 but looking back in 20 years we will be reminded
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of amazon or pets.com? many people fleeing apartment life in cities in the pandemic but home prices are too expensive now for so many people one builder is building homes designed to be represented and will get into the topic. "power lunch" starts right now first let's get you a check on the markets the dow down 186 look at the nasdaq up almost 1%. s&p flirting with positive/negative territory. amc the most actively traded stock in the market. quadrupled in a month. at $60 now, wow. vaccine candidate was 47%
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effective against the disease. covid, of course look at the shares down almost 42%. >> some big movers there a lot of comparisons made between today's market and the dotcom market. the bears are screaming about valuations disjointed from fundamentals bulls scream as loudly about future growth prospects. whether it is bitcoin or dogecoin, amc, spacs or the nasdaq overall can investors draw okay rat analogies between the dotcom bubble and the global coordinated central bank easy money policies the nasdaq at 1570 by march of 2000 over 5,000. the recovery from the great crisis was quite v-shaped but
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the covid pandemic market recovery even more impressive. took three november months to get everything lost in the pandemic so many assumptions. let's take a look at individual stocks cisco to the high in the dotcom era. right? a huge ramp up overall 136% gain. now just after the highs to the lows and you can see a steep drop tesla to the upside. meanwhile check out cisco going from the highs down to the lows. a 51% drop in the months after that and then follow tesla with the same story because it is a similar type move to see. "wall street journal" dove into investor behavior then versus now. james joins us now on the phone
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to talk about it thank you very much for being with us. let's talk about whether or not it is justified to make the comparisons of the dotcom bubble and what's happening with markets today. >> i think that there's a general truth throughout history that all bubbles behave in a vaguely similar fashion. and that's true because of investor behavior. fear of missing out and the slowness to be convinced of change and then the panic afterwards. that's a broad commonality across all bubbles the question is whether this particular one is like any particular past one in more ways and the numbers do look like there were a whole bunch of sectors that shot up or segments of the market that shot up in
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the fourth quarter of last year and then peaked in february and march and have come down hard since then which is pretty much exactly what happened with nasdaq to the same extent and of course nothing is exactly the same and if it were we should worry but there's a strong rhyme in this. >> so the rhyming is the parent that a lot of people are keying on, james. the reason why is because back then it seemed to believe focused on technology stocks and then so big that they became systemically important to the rest of the market are there aspects today in today's market where we can say maybe cryptocurrency is like that orb the meme stocks orb is there less systemic risk to the market than yesteryear >> i think that probably -- at least i'm hopeful that there's less risk across the market this
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time than there was back then. but i am cautious about that but there are some good reasons. the first is the economy, it's much less reliant. far new people employed in these areas. consumers stand to lose less less has gone into tesla and the meme economy stocks, solar stocks and spacs they're much less important than nasdaq was back in 2000. and then the companies themselves have also raised once again some of the numbers they have -- the dollar numbers they managed to raise is eye popping and much will be wasted. seeing that with the crypto implosion, some of the electric vehicle implosions
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whilst the money will be wasted it isn't big enough to be systemic but every old line company trying to pimp itself as a dot come and they're hires hundreds of people and whilst there are some examples of that, there's a chinese property company set up with a car division for example, these aren't very widespread the way they were back in 2000 so i'm hopeful that the economy won't be hit in the same way by the bursting of these bubbles. >> certainly rhyming james at "wall street journal," thank you very much. >> thank you. the question for investors is survives? which companies will emerge from the dust and which will follow the fatd of pets.come let's bring in mark lehman and bryn talkington.
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wonderful to have you both here. bryn, you remind people that amazon wasn't point in 2001 did trade down to $6 and very hard to value the companies so for investors today how do they find an amazon versus one that you might be -- or maybe a tesla versus another you're more cautious on. >> yeah. first of all what all the companies whether it's amazon or microsoft, apple, tesla have common is part of the nasdaq 100 part of the qqqs so that's a great place to start with the qqq which is my version of the s&p 500. i definitely think that you have to discern because i don't know anyone that stuck with amazon at $6 so you have to do good research for every amazon there's 20 more
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nikolas or lordstown with no revenue so i think it's a great question but a complicated answer but ultimately i would start with the qs to do good research to find great companies versus just looking at the s&p 500. >> if people say what's the difference, amazon had gross profits of $656 million in 2000. most of the companies we are talking about today sort of the smaller valued ones, recent publicly ones, would you say that's the place to start? is frankly with the balance sheet. >> always. jeff bezos writes wonderful annual letters and in that, i think the 2001 letter, the first word was ouch. right? the stock was down 80% but the gross profits were at multiple folds in that one year so what you want to do is take advantage. there's great companies out there that are off 20%, 30%, 40%
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with long runways and in the crypto space i think that's a big area to see tremendous growth but to point out from "the wall street journal" article a lot of volatility and fomo >> the names that you are sticking with. mark, let me turn to you you have similar thoughts but different ways to put capital to work so first thing, having gone through the dotcom bubble and bust, what similarities and differences with today's trading environment? >> i was back i think march 1st 2000 is the peak of the nasdaq like we saw when my youngest daughter was born that day and almost named her nasdaq. there's reporters and articles
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written and have been for years that this market is overvalued very similar the difference of course is that some of the companies are going to be around for a long time and questions valuations not permanence tesla will be around for a long time making great strides besides making automobiles it is a question of what do you want to pay for it that's a big difference from pets.com the other thing to caution the viewers and people is to say because a lot of the retail trade in here it must be a bubble and not going to survive and i would point to the meme stocks and some companies line hertz which people looked at with great lack of affection last year and they paid off the shareholders, it is wildly profitable these days so the retail investor is not always the dumb money they were the first money in bitcoin and now institutional
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money is catching up you did mention c3a. artificial intelligence will be around and he finds value and a great entrepreneur on wall street but again my kids are not going to go on an auto car lot and buy a used car they'll buy it on the phone. if you are ahead of the curve you suffer the disruptions and the portfolio but that's when you want to buy the best companies and get the value. >> we got a few moments left here how much do you blame orb or attribute if massive valuations and do you quantify it to tell clients maybe things are overvalued or undervalued? >> it is a great question.
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very hard to quantify but look at crypto and the other coins and marketplaces i believe it's north of a trillion dollars if you do that in aggregate that's by no means a small number it shows you the size and derpt and breadth of that market and blockchain and largely within that i worry about some of the late entrants in the space. at montgomery securities which is the firm i worked at in the '90s and people have not heard of montgomery securities which is too bad we started to take gaming companies public. everybody wanted to be in river boat gaming at that time and i remember there's a company that tried to do that and one day they said there would be no press release that day i would be worried about them. some incumbents are great innovators and will be around to stay and pay attention to those. >> i love those anecdotes. >> i still remember the robby
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welcome back to "power lunch. we're watching the pull back in commodities amid a concern of chinese crackdown. lumber down more than 30% today. more than 15% for the week and also weighing on the ishrs global ticker wood and then there's gold, silver and copper sinking well more than 4%. cleveland cliffs, u.s. steel and others among the names down more than 6%. xme is down 9% not getting any better for these guys back to you. >> thank you. the medical industry is trying to change the dna deman for medicine that is rewrite genetic code is growing. meg tirrell is looking at the companies using krispe r.
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>> it is a method of editing dna. it received the noble prize in 2020 in chemistry for the 2012 discovery by jennifer doudna and charpentier. here's what they had to say about the promise for krispr to change human medicine. >> it's extraordinary to me less than ten years out from the publication of our work and already there are clinical trials showing it to be effective in treating or curing diseases like sickle cell disease so it's really been one of the fastest blowouts i think of a technology from the fundamental initial science to an actual application. >> and guys there are about three companies leading the way
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in applying crispr to applying the new medicine and went public about five years ago the rueturns are quite different all of them trying to compete with what the doctor said of sickle cell disease and tackle other diseases, as well. >> we talk about this a lot but how do you balance the promise with the threats that they also contain? >> that is something that the doctor has thought a lot about and tells a story that early on in this discovery realizing the power with a horrible dream of hitler getting it. we have seen people overstep using the crispr technology and they focus on how to harness the power for good things and not take it too far.
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>> so meg, i'm curious because the crispr technology seems like it's becomer more mainstream is there a sense of whether or not we are at a balanced point for expectations for this technology versus what it can do in the future or what it's failed to do in the past are we right where we're supposed to be with regard to gene ed itting >> it's a market that's still figuring the way before things are proven you can get crazy valuations you can see that the market's valuing the companies very differently and independently based on what they're working on and how well they executed and fascinating to watch. >> absolutely. the next frontier in medicine right now. next we'll continue to watch markets. dow down more than 200 points. plus the federal reserb is
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moving up the time line for interest rate hikes. could this be the news that finally cools down that red hot housing market we'll speak to ceo of valley market as we head to break june is pride month, we'll be spotlighting contributors. here's cnbc's emily. >> coming out meant trusting the feelings that i had been repressing for decades and freeing myself from the restrictive expectations i felt completely burdened by they held me back but when i learned to advocate for myself i was able to step into my own light and everything is so much brighter hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different.
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( ♪♪ ) ♪ quite as often as i could have ♪ we're delivering for the earth. by investing in more electric vehicles, reusable packaging, and carbon capture research. making earth our priority. i thought i'd seen it all. ( ♪♪ ) welcome back i'm rahel solomon. president biden calling the supreme court's decision to uphold the affordable care act a
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major victory for all americans adding that after a decade it r it's time to build on obamacare. across the pond more than 10,000 new daily covid-19 cases for the first time in nearly four months. experts blame the delta variant first discovered in india. an extreme heat wave overtaken the western portion of the country. it now enters the sixth day. the brutal record high temperatures are execed to continue through the weekend and energy operate or thes are pleading with customers to conserve energy to try to reduce the risk of outages. there's fresh buzz from seattle. a murder hornet discovered recently, the first one found in the u.s. this year scientists say that it is unrelated to last year's sightings. back to you.
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>> thank you the dow down only about 217 points right now we were down 407 at the lows today. can you imagine if you said you're the federal reserve, most important meeting of the year and then the net result is that the s&p 500 next day is perfectly flat probably what they were going for. nasdaq up nearly 1% here time now for today's power movers soaring double digits threadup there's a buy rating and raising the target price the threadup shares up 12%. another online retailer farfetch is higher being named a high conviction stock. finally something that i like to talk about as you know callaway golf. the firm says the popularity is still strong and names it number
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one pick you can see the shares low for more on this call and others go to cnbc.com/pros for the inside track on the big calls. the federal reserve indicates rate hikes sooner meaning lower mortgage rates a thing of the past. we have a look at what it means for the overall housing market good afternoon, diana. >> reporter: good afternoon. the 10-year treasury shot up after the comments from chairman powell the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed 3.25% according to mortgage news daily. rates are now up almost a quarter of a percentage point just from last friday and you can see up a half from the recent low last february and even more importantly higher than they were this time a year ago which has not happened in a while and may not sound like a
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lot but it is significant especially for those looking to save on the monthly payments through a refinance. if you can't save at least half a percentage rate on the rate then it is not worth the costs involved and why mortgage applications to refi down 22%. as for home buyers given the sky high home prices any move in rate hits the monthly payment and may make it harder to qualify for a loan. >> friends were in the middle of a refi and the broker said they may not get the rate anymore i think of rates as off the 10-year and that's lower today. >> reporter: it is lower today that has to do with the commodity market and mortgage rates price differently. they have to do with mbs
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purchases and the fed may taper soon and mortgage lenders price sometime late morning and not the way the stock moves with the bond market and might see a slight pullback tomorrow but the trajectory is going higher. >> thank you. ahead getting a pulse on the economy from mortgages to small business and just personal banking. speaking with a ceo of valley bank next and then a look the a company taking advantage of the housing shortage building homes to rent them. and why the ceo of intel sees ten years of chip growth ahead all this when "power lunch" returns. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision.
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about the dollar today's weak ps follows the wti hitting a new high so among those saying that the pullback is warranted. >> 14 straight sessions. thank you. let's get to the bond market rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. rates, dollars tie it altogether for us. >> there's everything. starting with the fed yesterday pulling the rate increases closer but the real thing is the technical ajustments reverse repo facility from zero to 5 basis points and will put the floosh in the effect of the controlling game and ceiling raised the interest rates on reserves to 15 basis points. but that parking lot look at the
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way it's grown from 520 million to 755 billion. all time record as you see on the screen and it doesn't end there. interest rates, 5s are down 30 the 5s and 30 spread flattened about a dozen basis points look at it there at 1.20 and on the dollar when commodity prices move lower the dollar tends to strengthen. when the fed pulls the dots a bit closer and pressure drops the dollar is stronger look at the crv versus 10s for one session there. it is huge after the dollar index had maybe one of the most explosive two-day rallies in year just the markets are reconfirming look for global data and short selling pressures this abaited
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kelly? >> thank you very mump the prices are a key focus for esch. an industry caught in the middle of the mover the rate, the dollar, housing, spending. is the regional banking industry joining us is ira robbins. there is a very curious dynamic right now. trillions of dollars of central bank cash put in the economy tell us how a bank ceo navigates through this kind of an environment. >> it's a difficult environment from a macroperspective to beginning to see demand come back from many of the borrowers. we have a unique franchise where a third is down in the florida market and two third up here in new york and new jersey and two thirds of the commercial demand is in the florida footprint which is a function we believe
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that the changing migration p patterns than here i think inflation is having an impact potentially on some of our borrowers. i was with a commercial customer yesterday and seen the prices increase 45% and having an impact on the working capital cash flow so his needs have increased 15% from where they were a year ago purely based on the inflation experiences that we have begun to see. >> if you're a lender out there, there's obviously different portfolios to deal with here give us a general idea of where you see the most demabd for that kind of lending. xherm business lending construction lending residential mortgage lending what are you seeing in terms of where the growth is right now? >> we've seen many of the commercial construction lenders go to the sideline right now
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borrowers to the sideline based on the surge in the products that they need for the individual jobs, lumber is up a significant amount come back a little bit, still record highs many of the lumber yards anticipate permanent increases and an impact of scoping out a project. we have seen volumes come back from where they were and based on the commentary on the show earlier about where mortgage rates are and refinances are slowing down and the home purchases continue to be escalated. generally we see a positive economy today. growth coming out of it. the question really is that we see is however of it is transitory versus permanent. >> that's the trillion dollar question at this point as the ceo of a regional banking entity, spoke of the trends, the
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interest rate trends, how much of those -- are you planning on being transitory and how much is more trend like for the maybe years and decades to come? >> i try to break it down and just make it simple. inflation is a function of supply and demand and looking at the supply side the monetary policy and the fiscal policy and i'd argue the monetary policy can be transitory. the frinfrastructure bill is probably more permanent and then the demand side and thinking about demand there is a massive movement to see with the mmpbers to look at moving some firefighters outside of china and back to the u.s. and the word that's going to put price pressure on the products that we come to buy every single day so i'm not necessarily in line with where the fed's position is.
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i think there's more permanent pressure that's getting commented on today. >> you're a bank that's in many cases or in history in the new york metro area. you have branchs in florida and alabama. as a regional bank ceo that's seeing consolidation in the business what other markets do you want to be in? why would you want to expand given the trends that you see develop? >> it's interesting. your depiction of us is how people look at regional banks. as digital and financial technology companies really begin to influence our industry it's not so much necessarily where your branches are but the business lines you are in. we lend in 50 states today we see upward opportunities in the health care businesses and many individual cni and not limited to where you are
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we think our regional bank space is a tremendous opportunity today. the large banks have a difficulty functioning on relationship there's only a handful of regional banks in the country that look and feel like us today and we think there's an opportunity across the entire country. >> thank you very much please come back and tell us about the business developments on your end. >> thank you. up next, the semiconductor industry is facing uncertainty but intel ceo is bullish on the future is now the time to bet on the stock? our traders debate that next
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years in front of us because the world is becoming more digital and everything digital needs semiconductors and covid created this terrible situation that demand spurted and supply chains were disrupted so we have years to catch up to what we see on the books today and hearing the customer that is the backlog is strong. >> intel is facing challenges including competition, delays and slow down in pc demand let's bring in the team today, todd gordon and gina sanchez todd, intel or another >> i prefer another. i think intel is losing market share but the general market supply chain hit them the hardest and filtered down. we were in a tech bull market pre-covid and now mostly behind us i think it's resuming
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leaders in gpus and solutions and trading 47 times earnings. just broken out of a consolidation and we talked about it last week the companies invest in production they might have help from the infrastructure bill. will wall street punish them i don't think so nvidia that will take share from intel. >> todd gordon going with nvidia gina >> so we own nvidia and we like them but we think you shouldn't ignore the fact that right now the krcrunch is about the foundries and the largest is taiwan semiconductor they had to shift to taiwan semiconductor and a reason to
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make a big investment and go where the manufacturing is now and invest for the future. we own intel and nvidia and taiwan semiconductor and we think that's the trade for now. >> it's gina's pick. thank you very much today. head to the website or follow along on twitter dom? after the braem as the housing supply shrinks the largest home builders, banks and private firms betting billions on what could be the future. we are talking built to rent homes. we'll speak to the ceo of a build to rent developer after the break. keep it right here >> and now the latest from trading nation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor.
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welcome back a lack of available homes and sky high prices are givering life to a concept of built to rent communities homes with high end finishes, security, a doggy door and no mortgage idea is gaining steam. one of america's biggest home builders, taylor morrison, expects it to make up half of its business in the next few years. my next guest is a pioneer of build-t build-to-rent properties let's welcome in todd wood todd, welcome. these are largely in phoenix as i understand it right now. there's sort of two different things going on here i definitely see the appeal of being able to outsource the maintenance of your home, but the idea of people renting on a semi-permanent basis, is that what you're going for? >> no. owning a home has always been
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the american dream and probably always will be 65% that are renting are under the age of 35. so we have this huge group of individuals that are renters by choice if you look at really what our product delivers to them, it's a totally different concept than anybody has ever seen before what we did was if you look at the traditional multi-family, which is a vertical environment where people can live in a two to three-story garden-style apartment or even an urban high rise and then you look at kind of the standard, traditional single family rental, which is a home in a for sale community but it's for rent. so this product is kind of a hybrid it's right in between. it's the best of both worlds that we bring to the environment. and if you really look at it, we've always said sometimes you used to drive a truck, sometimes
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you used to drive a car. but somebody said let's create something that's in between, an suv has really done well so we look at this product as people want to live in these communities for all kinds of various reasons, depending on their demographic. >> are these generally rent-to-own home or if people wanting homeownership do they have to pursue that elsewhere? >> they have to pursue that elsewhere. these are communities that are single story, detached, for rental communities that are highly amenitized. it's a resort-style environment. there are reasons people want to rent if you look at the millenial base, they have come out, they have high debt in their education, they're putting off marriage they want to be able to have flexibility in their work where they can just travel they want a lock and leave environment. they choose not to buy until the timing is right for them you also have on the other
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perspective, you have the baby boomers, where they have either lost their home back in '08 and '09, they don't want to get into another 30-year mortgage, that means they're going to be 110 by the time they die and own the home, they don't want to have maintenance. they want a maintenance-free environment. a light bulb goes out, you call us and we'll come and change the light bulb they also, the baby boomers, really like that there's predictability in their payment stream each month. so this provides a lot of foundational stability to both of those demographics and a lot of other people that really when they can't afford to buy a home, this is a great alternative. >> so, todd, it's dom here i grew up in a household where my parents always said you want to own things. this is like you said, the american dream how much of your business is predicated on the idea that people are not going to want to own as much or as the
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demographic play something that you are maybe tailing off at some point in your business plan in the future? >> you know, the people that come into our residence and live there, 65% of them are that millenial gen z. the other makeup is mostly the boomers. as we get into their psycho graphic of where they want to live there, a lot of it has to do with home prices are skyrocketing at this moment for all the reasons you've been talking about. and all the different indicators that are happening in the financial markets, whether it's the feds that's going to be raising interest rates soon. so rental also is not a bad word that it used to be years ago renting is acceptable. people enjoy renting for all different kind of reasons. >> yeah, it's been kind of a life as a service economy lately to the point we were just making about high home prices, rents were at record highs too todd, we'll pick it up again if
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you'll join us in the future todd wood of christopher wood communities. the commodity cooloff. we'll look under the microscope. coming up next, commodities. stay right here. at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. ♪♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challenge. today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead. we are morgan stanley. our retirement plan with voya, keeps us moving forward. into strategies for hey, kevin!ead. hey, guys! they have customized solutions to help our family's special needs... giving us confidence in our future... ...and in kevin's. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected.
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you can close with more certainty. and twice as fast. if i could, i'd ten-x everything. like a coffee run... or fedora shopping. talk to your broker. ten-x does the same thing, - but with buildings. - so no more waiting. sfx: ding! see how easy...? don't just sell it. ten-x it. all right, welcome back to "power lunch." let's talk a little about this inflation trade because i know that's something you've been focused on i've been focused on it. the whole market has been focused on it. so this little unwind that you see here on a relative basis,
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it's not that large but still it could be something, right? this is an etf, ticker dbc one of the bigger more multi-billion dollar etfs that tracks a basket of these securities. 51% over the last year and we're starting to tail off a little bit. the trend is obviously upward, but what does this mean? does it mean that maybe this commodity trade could be over or at least taking a debate >> so the big debate in the entire market is whether this right here is the sign of basically all of this. what is the thing we hear so often. we were speaking to jeff golden yesterday and he's very bullish on some of the metals because of ev demand. so maybe that's his thesis but plenty of others think, and look at what the banker just said, this is the beginning of a multi-year higher plateau or move higher in commodities dare we call it the super cycle. >> so you bring up the term super cycle.
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the last time i remember hearing that term was 2007, 2008 when crude oil was well above $100 per barrel it was heading to $200 to $300 per barrel by some estimates here's what the chart looked like back then back in '07 to 2010, remember that huge ramp hundred up, up to $150 yes, the financial crisis happened and everything else, but still something happened that pushed oil prices ridiculously low by the way, they hovered in this range under $100 since then. >> let's hope that the thing that corrects the commodities super cycle is not another global financial crisis, right but it does imply the bigger risk is higher prices because then they become unaffordable and begin their own demise look at this chart, it goes back ten years. as time went on, it reset lower. we've been in this range for the
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last five to eight years. >> scott miner tweeted out something about the deflationary pressures being brought to bear. remember, fracking was a huge part of the story. the u.s. became a swing producer and that forced oil prices lower as well. >> there are plenty in the market saying it might be over dom, it's been a pleasure. thank you, sir thanks for watching "power lunch. everybody. "closing bell" starts right now. >> welcome to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen at the new york stock exchange strange day on wall street some sizeable news and a divergent market following yesterday's fed decision the dow is leading the declines down triple digits but well off session lows the nasdaq is surging. >> and i'm wilfred frost let's have a look at what's driving the action today banks and industrials wearing on the indices the most declines for the last of goldman sachs, and j ppmorganjpmorgan.
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