cash think of their free cash flow. they're sitting on piles of money. when rates climb in the short term, this is good for them. what can they do with this money? let's buy back some shares, let's invest in the company so that's adding to the argument a little bit >> kristina, thanks. have a great weekend kelly, you too, have a great weekend. >> thank you, ty. >> and wish your dad and the dad in your house a happy father's day and happy father's day to all of you. >> and to you, tyler thanks so much. we were expecting a good year, a good reopening, but this is a bigger year than we were expecting. more inflation than we were expecting. i think it's natural that we've tilted a little bit more hawkish here to contain inflationary pressures. >> that was st. louis fed president james bullard on cnbc this morning those hawkish comments sent futures lower, setting the tone for another downbeat day on wall

street the dow on pace for a fifth straight day in the red. welcome to "closing bell," everyone i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm courtney reagan in for sara eisen let's look at what's driving the action fed signals continue to be top of mind for investors including those comments this morning from bullard, with particular attention being paid to big swings in the bond market. it's another rough day for financials that sector is the biggest decliner in the s&p, down around 6% for the week. but there are some pockets of strength the nasdaq 100 is still pacing for a positive week with gains today for names like nvidia, adobe and tesla. 59 minutes left to go in this session andthe dow could turn in its worst week of the year. we'll watch it very closely. >> down 460 on the dow as we speak. we're covering today's volatile market from all angles helena kraft will give us her

opinion. let's get straight to the market mike santoli is tracking all the action for us as always. joining us with his take on the sell-off is tom lee. but mike, let's start off with the big picture. >> yeah, court knee. it's still really an spextensio of this mini panic that we got after the fed with all these trades that were set to play all of the things tended to be very concentrated bets and they're being undone right now, even if it's only through an incremental change in the fed's posture. i really don't think this is a radical kind of tightening gesture or anything like that, but it's enough to get those people scared out of those positions. the net effect on the s&p 500 is it really seems like we're back to these levels of a couple of months ago i kept pointing to the april 16th close also i was mentioning how the market has gone flat for so long

that just a relatively minor pullback was going to have people saying okay, it looks like a trend is failing or we're clicking but low important levels we're basically playing with the 50-day average that's obviously not the 50-day average but it's right about there, so that's one thing n a bull market when it's trending higher, it's often not a bad time to by but that remains to be seen. the yield curve, 30-year debt minus the fives. rick was showing us unwound months of steepening activity. so the posture of all bond traders in aggregate was to play for this to continue to steepen. and this really is an exaggerated move given where we are in the economy, where we are with the fed it shows you it's mostly a positioning shock right now. people just caught on the wrong side of it and in liquidation mode similarly stocks tied to the reflation theme like materials are giving up some of the advantage they had built up this

year materials still very importantly outperforming so it's not that it's undone the story of an accelerating economy but it is giving back some of that real excessive margin that we had over the kind of more disinflationary secular growth aspects of tech so it is a little decision point. a lot of things look like they're going to that march lift-off of value versus growth. >> i think stephanie link was speaking earlier on cnbc about the bond market and how it feels a little wacky compared to what we're seeing on equities it seems a little more extreme perhaps. >> it is more extreme. that's kind of the main battle front when it comes to incremental changes in fed policy and inflation expectations so if people were basically ready for the fed to say we want to run things hot, we're not going to pay attention to inflation risks, we're going to stick to our new framework of allowing inflation to rise a little while if it was muddled by the message

or just along the margins, the bond market is where you'll see it it does seem like it's a positioning shock rather than a radical rethink of the whole environment. >> mike, thanks so much. for more on the market sell-off let's bring in tom lee tom, great to see you, as always what is your take on the extent of the flattening of the curve today and what matters more for equities, the short endi or the long end >> it's clear that the fomc and the fed are taking away some of the pandemic tailwinds and that's been communicated and that's why you're seeing some change in some of the forecasts. do i think that this changes the equity outlook for the next 12 to 18 months this is where i'm -- you know, i know it's a really important and position issue for the rates markets. but for stocks i think if interest rates are lower, this is actually quite bullish for stocks. >> but what about on the short

end, is that not a problem >> you know, i think to me when i look at rates on the short end, it's really going to be liquidity and the functioning of long-term markets. as long as you've got liquidity in markets, i'm less concerned about movements or rates there but again, i think this week is muddled because it's in the middle of quad switching as well so a lot of the movement in markets this week could also be noise. >> tom, i'm sure you heard the comments from bullard this morning on cnbc and we started the show with him talking about being a little bit more hawkish. i'm just wondering, is that the worst thing in the world economic growth is pretty strong and the consumer wants to spend. housing is on fire if rates tick up just a little bit, is that really the end of the world here >> i mean i know a lot of people think the sky is starting to fall, but you're dead on the reason the fed is changing

their views is because the tail risks are being removed from the pandemic, so that's quite positive for not only the economic trajectory, it's a great signal for companies i think there's been a lot of companies that have been a little worried about doing capital spending because they thought there might have been the risk of inflation so they might have been hoarding instea or double ordering but if interest rates are drifting lower than consensus, that's great as stocks can go up i kind of think ultimately the fomc message in a month is going to be positive for stocks. >> tom, clearly some commodities themselves have corrected fairly aggressively both the last couple of days and the last couple of weeks. you have been fairly bullish on some of those cyclical sectors including energy where do you stand now >> well, you know, last friday we downgraded financials and upgraded faang to overweight really part of that was the idea

that we got the view that the central view of markets around rates was too hawkish. meaning we thought interest rates had downside i think that's really what we're seeing this week, that financials really took it in the gut. i think commodity stocks, basic materials, there might be some cooling. but, you know, as you guys mentioned, they're still outperforming year-to-date i don't think that the cyclical or epicenter trade is dead but if the market is rethinking the trajectory of rates and inflation pressures, i would have to say that the groups that got hit the hardest should be bouncing, and that would be faang. >> tom, i wonder what you think about the problems with the global supply chain right now. it has a ripple effect in so many sectors and industries. you just hear more and more about it all the time. there doesn't seem to be a clear end in sight how much could that hurt economic growth?

>> you know, it just depends on whether or not purchasing managers think this is temporary or permanent and consumers think it's permanent or temporary. if you look at how consumers are spending, i know people are using the term revenge spending. that's just showing you consumers are willing to treat it as temporary the same way people treat gasoline spikes but on the corporate side, i do think capital spending has been muted because of the bottlenecks because nobody really knows what's really shortage versus temporary and what's hording but i think once that's cleared up, i think you're going to have revenge capex. there's a lot of capital stock depleted so it's a great question but i would say our view is that this is temporary and the end result is that capex will go up a lot. >> tom, are you still pretty relaxed about the outlook for the virus here in the u.s. i know you were also keeping an

eye on numbers in the uk what are you drawing from that >> well, i think it's troubling because the uk has seen an uptick not only in cases, they have almost quadrupled in the last four weeks, but hospitalizations are picking up so it's not a benign more cases detected as people getting sick. it's hard to tell if it has to do with the composition of the vaccines boweing used or the emphasis on single jab versus two doses. fortunately in the u.s. the trending is the opposite the u.s. was almost every day this week below 10,000 cases it could be below 5,000 next week that's a real receding of the case severity so that should be good news. >> tom lee, thank you for joining us >> thanks. after the break, shares of nvidia are up 5% this week, hitting record levels and trying to hold on to gains today in the face of this market pressure we'll speak with the analyst at bank of america who just raised

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shares of nvidia bucking the broader market sell-off, though now off their earlier highs. b of a raising it from $900 to $800 the firm saying rising ai adoption and expanding use cases across cloud and enterprise could help nvidia increase its data center sales. joining us now is the analyst behind the note. can you expand a little bit on your thesis for why nvidia is such a good pick in this space >> thanks, courtney. thanks for having me i think the nvidia is in early stages of ai adoption.

when we look at what is emerging across cloud, across enterprise, across supercomputing, there are a lot more images, a lot more video, a lot more voice. the way to handle that is the right recipe of hardware, software and developer resources. nvidia is kind of the one-stop shop for those products. i think its scale and its execution enables it to achieve the maximum adoption of its technology across a range of these. >> why do you say in particular expanding use cases across cloud. this seems to be a really crowded space that everyone wants a piece of why will nvidia do it better than others? >> in all of the analysis that we did, we estimate that the adoption of nvidia is still under 5% to 6% of all those that are being deployed today that can more than double and in some cases get to 30% over time.

if you think about cloud, cloud is offering a lot of mass custom customization. whether it's movie recommendations or shopping recommendations or offer realtime advertising, you need a lot of highly advanced scientific computation tools you need a lot of artificial intelligence tools to make that happen to be successful in that market you need a level of scale of computing. over the last ten years nvidia has been perfecting that in its gaming products and now data center products. i think that enables them to continue to be the leader in this market. >> i know you're bullish about the outlook for growth of both revenue and earnings for this company, but i'm interested in your price target increase from $800 to $900, in charge part coming by using a better multiple, 47 times 2022 earnings rather than 42 times before that that's really what's driven the

price target increase, right and it's a pretty steep multiple >> sure, wilf. i think that the way to think about the companies, that it is going to be driven by the growth outlook over the next three to five years again, because we're in very early stages of the adoption of its technology and i remember the price target on nvidia has been steadily moving up. i still remember the time when it used to be $20, then $30, then $100, then $200 what has structurally gone up with nvidia over time is the market size that is available to them i would say close to a $100 billion opportunity across gaming, across artificial intelligence every year that goes by, they're able to come up with a unique set of hardware and software services to make that happen if you look at that technology that started in gaming, now it's going on in the data center, that technology is the same one that is going to be used in

autonomous cars, in smart cities, in very high level of ai processing, even for telecom operators. i think that's why using a higher multiple makes sense for nvidia >> and vivek, you've got that price target as wilf point out of $900. but we're about 750, 751 right now. what's the biggest risk between the levels now and getting to 900 for nvidia >> sure. like any premium stock, the multiples are exposed to volatility in the market we see these daily rotations between growth and the cyclicals. i think that certainly impacts multiples. but when we take a long-term look at the fundiamentals of th company, we think all the roads of growth in semi conductors eventually lead to this one unique conductor in semiconductors, scale is extremely important. you have to be big to get the right manufacturing capacity, to hire the right sort of people,

to have the right set of software and developer resources. once you get to that scale, then competition gets very hard it becomes very hard for the competition to come and displace you. i think that's what nvidia has so i would say market volatility is probably just the biggest risk for this stock. >> vivek, thanks for joining us. good to see you. >> thank you likewise. we've got 41 minutes left of the session and we are down by 430 points on the dow. that's 1.3%. the best part of a percent for the s&p and the nasdaq as well. still to come, up next, boeing's newest 737 max takes to the skies. we'll hear about the company's latest effort to expand its controversial line of jets as we head to break, let's check out some of the top search tickers on cnbc.com. the 10-year yield on top, amc, the dow industrials, nvidia and platheape t top of the list there. we're back in a couple of

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welcome back the dow is down 412 as we speak. the low was down 532 it's down 1.2% as you can see. it's been fairly steady, more than 1% of declines for most of the session. the s&p is down just shy of 1% nasdaq is down three-quarters of 1% we've got just under 40 minutes left of the session. let's check in on some individual market movers a bright spot is smith & wesson.

reporting an earnings and revenue beat as well as a dividend increase. the stock is up 16%. shares of lennar also up today the firm citing a positive ongoing business transformation. the stock is up 3.5%. still to come, losing energy the sector is one of the biggest decliners in today's session an for the week it's still up sharply on the year we'll break down all of those moves with rbc's helima croft. the 10-year is down to 1.44% we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ i had the nightmare again maxine.

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a little fractional pickup, now down 411 or so, so not down to the lows, which is more than 500 points, but nonetheless still a soft end to what has been a soft week we've got a market flash on meme stocks kristina partsinevelos has that for us. >> thank you let's take a check at how these

stocks have been doing over the past week, especially today because unfortunately i know a lot of people don't want to hear this, they're capping off a rough week we're talking about bed, bath and beyond, blackberry all down. look at that on your screen. well above 5% lower today and double digits for this week. two other baskets we want to focus on in the meme area are the pot stocks and alternative energy players that includes names like tilray, canopy growth and then sunpower or plug power on the clean energy side. all of these names sadly deep in the red today. but i know many are still huddling back to you. >> kristina, back to you. >> that was a meme joke, by the way. >> i could have picked up on it. that was very bad. thank you for pointing that out. i deserve to be highlighted. mike, on the performance, though, amc is only down 5% for the week gamestop is down a couple -- it

was higher on the week until yesterday. banks and material names are down more. >> the marquee ones are keeping their altitude amc has really outperformed the rest as a group it's been rough it takes a constant stream of fresh money and higher conviction and in theory more news i keep pointing out that the short positions in these stocks in general do not necessarily remain extreme, so that was a big part of kind of the rallying cry that we actually have a little bit of a rigged game here because shorts betting against it so much so it doesn't necessarily move with the overall market. i don't think it's overall market volatility hitting them, i think it sometimes suffers from lack of interest and give-back of short-term games. >> those meme stocks, they won't go away. we keep getting some new names. >> that is the one thing you can say, i think this is going to be a vein running through the markets for a while. >> just pivoting to the broader markets, a little bit of a pickup in the s&p. the dow still lags, as it has done all week, over 3% declines.

>> it's been kind of sticky since the morning sell-off 4180, around these levels of the s&p. we have this big expiration going on it's going to be kind of maybe a little bit of air pockets into the close. not necessarily directional, but just tons of volumes index rebalances going on. it's something that happens four times a year, not monthly, so it's a bigger one. the week after this june expiration friday tends to be a little rough or the beginning of that week just on a net basis. so i think it's a little harder to determine exactly what the real money flows are at the moment but it's within, you know, the range we've been in for a little while. if you want to have a number in your head, the may low in the s&p was 4060 so we're still as dramatic as the moves have been this week, it's mostly been just kind of chopping around inside this range. >> but with the expiration at the close, you think things might get a little messy, a little sloppier from here? >> it's just unpredictable i don't know where the touch

points lie usually it's gravitational pull toward certain levels. another factor as relates to the meme stocks is there's a tremendous amount of options outstanding in a lot of those stocks and indexes at higher levels when that's in effect before expiration, it has a supportive impact in other words, dealers have to hedge and buy the stocks and that sort of goes away so we're going to wipe a lot of that away at the close today or near the close so it would mean a little mercurial action, we'll see. >> you're like a market poet, mike. >> when you say the same thing for many years, you have to get to thesaurus for a while. >> don't give him too many compliments because he'll think he deserves them every single day from his usual partners in crime. >> these guys basically have to cash the check. >> thank you, mike you'll be back we're going to move to a cnbc news update with rahel solomon. >> mike deserves all of the

compliments, all of the praise. the justice department has released more video of the january 6 insurrection on capitol hill a warning that some may find it disturbing it does show violent confrontations between police and rioters. it was used in the case of a former police officer accused of participating in the riot. the justice department is showing the video after multiple news outlets requested it. border restrictions are being extended to july 21st on non-essential travel between the u.s. and canada. calls have been growing to open the border to tourism but canadian officials say they must stay in place until more vaccinations. this would be moochie evading multiple would be rescuers finally she ran into a veterinary clinic where she was caught and returned to her owners whereas my dog usually runs away from the vet that dog ran into the vet. c

courtney, just suffered a little injured paw, otherwise okay, though. >> i know you would be the first one to pull over and chase that dog and get him to safety. >> yes. >> i'm glad everything turned out okay thanks, rahel. energy is one of the worst performing sectors this week and down more than 2% today. up next, we'll break down the moves in the oil market when we talk to rbc's global head of commodity strategy, helima croft. jeffries analyst we'll talk to after this. sales are down from last quarter but we are hoping things will pick up by q3. yeah...uh... doug? sorry about that. umm... what...its...um... you alright? [sigh] [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools

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see you later darling. smiles are contagious. (laughter) i love it. energy is one of the worst performing sectors this week after a red-hot start to the year oil prices have actually recovered today. let's bring in helima croft, global head of commodity strategy at rbc capital markets.

it's good to see you again i know there's a very important opec meeting that's coming up on july 1st what does that mean for the price of oil and the energy patch in general as we try to position in front of that? >> absolutely. i think this is going to be an exceptionally important opec meeting on july 1st. oil was hit yesterday by the broad commodity macro sell-off, triggered boy the hawkish fed statements and chinese action to potentially curb the commodities upside story but oil has a strong fundamental backdrop and we really are seeing strong u.s. demand. strong mobility data but the global reopening is still really supportive for oil. the big question mark is going to be what does opec do. part of the reason for the recovery today as well is reports that shell production is supposed to grow next year at a relatively muted pace. so the question is willow opec,

will they start putting supply back on this market. >> iran of course is a really big player when it comes to oil and there's a presidential election going on. how could the outcome influence the oil markets? >> this is a big variable for opec planners as they look to the back half of the year. iran is sitting on potentially a million extra barrels of exports they could bring back onto this market negotiations are ongoing in vienna, but the team that's leading those negotiations in iran, they are not going to be in power after august. and the election today in iran is expected to produce a very hard-line government now, the supreme leader of iran is okay with the negotiations but the real issue is if you don't get a deal done before this government leaves office in august, are you not having those barrels back on the market and will the market be tighter that's the question for opec, when do you start bringing those barrels back

the saudi oil minister was talking about the need to remain cautious, that we're not out of the woods. but you have a number of producers, like russia, iraq, they're very eager to put more barrels on this market >> helima, despite the fundamental backdrop for oil, are you surprised that it has been so resilient in face of a broader commodity pullback the last couple of weeks there has been a very big pullback that often have a very high correlation with oil. >> no, i think what's really interesting is i think this shows how much more global the oil story is right now if you look at a commodity like copper, i think they were especially hard hit not just by the fed announcement but also by the chinese action to release strategic stockpiles of copper, aluminum, zinc so i'm not surprised that copper continues to be hit hard again, oil just has more tailwinds i think right now because of the issue about mobility, about what we're seeing in the united states and about this sort of really big

variable about what opec is going to do. there is an expectation that opec is going to be cautious to put those barrels on the market and so the fundamental picture for oil will still be very constructive. >> and what about the dollar bounce if that continues or stextends,i that going to be pressure for wti? >> i think the dollar is a pressure obviously especially for gold again, i'm not saying that it's not going to impact sentiment on oil, but again,i think if we think about this sort of broader demand backdrop for oil, it does remain very strong i think what you would watch for potentially, which could be a negative for oil would be if opec decides to simply dump 5 million barrels on the market. i don't expect them to do that, or if you get something really serious about covid variants that would be impactful for demand, but as long as they remain cautious about bringing back the barrels, oil should hold up very well.

>> helima croft, great to see you. thanks for joining us. >> thank you shares of boeing are down around 3% for the week, along with the broader market pullback the dow is down about that much itself but today the company is undertaking a big step surrounding the future of its 737 max line, the broader line of aircraft under that title phil lebeau has that story for us phil, have we landed yet >> we have landed, wilf. let me show you the video coming in from boeing field, which is just south of downtown seattle this is the boeing 737 max 10 coming in. it landed maybe two or three minutes ago. this was the first flight of the max 10 why is that significant? this is the largest of the max models now, it goes into production next year, first deliveries coming in 2023 it will have the capacity to carry up to 230 passengers of course it depends on the airline that has the plane how they configure it, but it's the

largest max. they have approximately 500 of these on order in terms of the overall backlog, it stands at 3,244 aircraft. that's how many maxes are in the boeing backlog the max-10 is the next one that will be built and the smallest version, the max-7 will be built after that a significant hurdle that boeing is clearing here quickly take a look at shares of boeing when you look at the max, you've got to remember this is the bulk of the backlog of orders for the company and they are ramping up production on a pretty steady basis. also take a look at shares of united why are we showing you united? it is the launch airline for the max-10 when it goes into service in 2023. guys, back to you. >> phil, i'm interested given that this is a variant of the original 737 max, whether there was not scope for them to give it a totally different name altogether, and whetherthere's need for that -- >> no. >> -- or are we past that big threat of what consumers

would -- >> right two answers here, wilf one, you'd have to do a complete recertification. the max is the name on the certification with the faa and with regulators around the world. the other issue is that as boeing has looked at the max, and they predicted this and so did a number of people in the airline industry, that once it was -- when it went back into service, which started in november of last year, any hesitancy that would be out there from people who would remember the first two crashes related to the flight control system, that would fade fairly quickly as they started logging flight after flight after flight with no incidents. that really has been the case, wilf you really don't see anybody -- you may have a few people here and there, but rarely do i hear somebody saying i'm not going to fly the max. it fades from memory >> said the first two crashes there. let's hope it's also the last two crashes, which i know you meant as well. >> agreed. we'll have much more on this volatile day on wall street when

we wrap up the final minutes of trade in the market zone next. you can watch or listen to us live on the go with the cnbc app. we will be right back, down 400 points on the dow. how'd you get here? ah yes... groceries. earn points now to use on travel later. one of the many things you could expect when you're with amex. obsession has many names. this is ours. the lexus is.

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let's kick things off with the broader market all three major averages in the red. the dow on track for its worst weekly performance in six months it's the worst performer of the major averages today mike, would we have expected this following yesterday in terms of the fact that it was a relatively dovish press conference from chair powell, even if they did upgrade the inflation forecast >> i don't think in the abstract just looking at what was said, even relative to expectations, you would have expected a very dramatic market response yesterday was definitely a little bit dicey in other words, it was a rescue at the end of the day. you did see an indication people felt a little trapped in the wrong side of the market value stocks have only really made progress versus growth when yields were rising or at least near their highs that obviously reversed with long-term yields coming down and the curve flattening this has been a measure the last two days of how far people were

leaning in the direction of that reflation overheating type economy trade. maybe it's taken two days to unwind some of that and that's all this is. i don't know that it's a real comprehensive rethink of what the economy is up to but if the beginning of fed normalization is now that much closer in sight than it was a couple of days ago, maybe it accounts for a couple percent on the s&p. >> barbara, when you see rates rising, tech stocks are supposed to be selling off, but tech is actually the strongest sector for the week, up just a half a percent. but still when the rest of a sea of red, that kinds of makes you think. what's going on there? >> yeah, i know. with the fed giving guide appearance as to an end point, still a couple of years ago, in some ways things have not changed. but i think we're seeing weaver more mid-cycle it's a recognition by the fed and what you see happening with the yield and interest rates that we are leaving the early cycle stwhich is cyclicals and values and small cap and we're into the mid-stage of the cycle

here and that typically rewards growth you're seeing growth stocks with real earnings and cash flow performing well and they have legs now, this rotation, we'll see how long it lasts because that has been the earmark of this market this year is lots of rotation, but i think that's what's going on. we're solidly mid-cycle. >> let's hit the banks, which are the joint worst performing sector today with energy and the joint worst performing sector this week along with materials there's a very simple reason for the big move lower today and it is the flattening of the yield curve. there you have the yield curve today. short ending rising and long end rising we'll get a snapshot of the week-to-date performance of the six biggest banks. pretty pronounced as well. you've got the likes of citi down double-digit percentage, 11.6%. all of the banks down over 7%.

the added fact to the yield curve this week is we did have commentary from a number of banks. you've got jpmorgan lowering its forecast and that was before the yield curve flattened the last two cities and citi lowering their forecast for investment banking and capital markets revenue. 11% for citi the short end of the yield curve has risen. that is good for banks in the short term, more important for net interest income than the shape. not all banks have lowered the forecast to the same extent citi morgan stanley ceo james gorman was on with us earlier in the week and was fairly constructive overall. i just think this quarter we might see market share gains and it will be stock specific as opposed to extrapolating --

>> if the market believed that fed hikes, actual hikes were more imminent, it would be bullish for banks. that's a very direct flow-through i think it's also about how banks are the biggest and highest conviction holding of the value basket whatever else is going on in the fundamentals, if people are, okay, we're 50pivoting away from that whole category, banks will be caught in that whipsaw. >> barbara, what do you think about the banks here is there opportunity in this sell-off for you or is this an area that you want to stay away from if you're thinking we're mid-psych sglel in full disclosure, i have not participated in the banks. i'm in the mastercards and visas which have underperformed year to date. i would not be buying the banks on any kind of pull-back last year in august the banks were about half the market pe. there was a lot of uncertainty in the economy and banks really started to roar this year. the xlf is up, gosh, over 45%

because of good earnings prospects. loan growth, net interest income, interest rates should have been rising as the economy reopened but that hasn't happened net interest income is at historic lows. loan growth is as 60% loans to deposits where it's usually 80% to 90% the valuations on banks are two to two and a half times tangible book, so i think by year ending the earnings may be coming in. there will be support from dividend increases once they pass the stress test but that's not a reason for the stocks to go higher from here. so i'd be very cautious. >> got it. well, some media and social stocks are bucking the trending today. julia boorstin has a closer look at what's moving in this space hi, julia. >> that's right. well, roku shares making gains today. this after the company announced that its commitment to original

content, including its acquisition of quibbe content is working. a record number of unique accounts streamed roku originals in th in the last two weeks reaching more roku users than the number of quibbe users who watched the shows. snap and pinterest both higher after a morgan stanley note they are the firm's top picks behind facebook. facebook shares are down today about 1.5% guys, back over to you >> thanks, julia you know, barb, as you look at some of these names, roku has been a winner for some time for a number of different reasons. snap and pinterest are also among names trending higher today, bucking the trend any of these names look attractive to you in the medium to long term >> well, you know, i own a little bit of roku and a little bit of -- the valuation has

gotten so extreme i've been holding and watching and waiting. i think longer term like so many growth stocks with great tailwinds, they will grow into their valuation but right now i am not adding on either name >> mike, some reporting as well from our colleague that roku is on the docket for a number of companies as a potential takeover i bet a lot of them wish they moved for that one of the reasons it has done so well or allowed itself to get this big is it was sort of agnostic to the other broadcasters initially one wonders had it been taken over whether that would have allowed it to get as big as it has done. >> it's probably something they have to contend with as to whether they'd just sort of be that third party neutral and benefit in general in the move toward streaming what's interesting about the stocks is they get rediscovered when people are no longer fixated on the macro stuff oh, is it a reflation trade or something else, and you can play

themes that are not really related to any of that, which has really been consuming everybody right now. a lot of the growthier stuff has been ediscovered in a small wa this week for that reason. >> up 5% for roku. shares of nvidia losing most of its gains but was a major outperformer today hitting an all-time high after bank of america raised its target to a street high of $900. it got up to about $775. back down to $747 as we stand. the bank of america analyst behind that call made his case earlier on the show. >> when we look at the kind of things that are emerging across cloud, across enterprise, across supercomputing, there's a lot more images, a lot more video, a lot more voice the way to handle that is the right recipe of hardware and software and silicon nvidia is kind of the one-stop shop for those products. >> barb, what do you think of this stock

it's had a fabulous run. i thought he made his case very well earlier but it's a pretty steep valuation about how he reaches his $900 price target. >> it is a steep valuation, but i think it's warranted this is a stock, full disclosure, that i own in all accounts that i manage and have bought as early as late '17 so i clearly love the name and i'm holding it for much longer term because i think they have huge growth ahead growth stocks in general have a tendency to come up and this is so solid because the markets are so big, so underpenetrated, and they are leaders in many ways. they have got great balance sheet management, great management, great cash flow, and best in class software ecosystem that goes across whether it's 5g, ai, by the way they were early in the ai space, artificial intelligence. so i think this name has a long way to go. it has been playing catch-up a lot of the street is realizing this is not just your traditional chip company but has a lot more going for it.

>> that was definitely some of the points that was made by vivek. it was interesting that that name did better in the broader market but the philly semiconductor index down 2.5% today, micron down 5%. so it does stand out among some of the chip names as much stronger and having a better portfolio or runway ahead. it seems like the street was agreeing with that call. barb >> oh, yes i think so obviously the chips, the semis have had a great run, but again when you're looking at where technology is going, an i think we all know what happened with the covid shutdown, how much more important tech in general has become and how many companies are upping their spending so this is not going away any time soon. maybe the stock takes a rest because it had a big run in the last few months, but it's going to then power higher so i'm not concerned about valuation right here i think you will continue to make money in this name for at

least a few more years and perhaps longer. >> mike, the safety of the mega cap tech doesn't really apply to some of these chip names even though some of them are pushing into mega cap territory. >> nvidia is on the verge of a half a million market cap which is just amazing and it's by far the biggest one here in terms of the dynamics that drive people toward the mega cap texas, it's stability, more the software or faang. but still nvidia has definitely separated itself remember when it used to trade with crypto and now it's everything else. >> well, we've got just two minutes to go in the trading day, a little less than that mike, tell us about the market internals today. the dow down about 460 owe not far off where we are starting the hour. >> internally pretty weak. the nasdaq is a little stronger but there's been close to 80% of all volume to the downside 75% to 85% all day that's pretty thoroughly a flush. but not necessarily one where you'd say that's a great purge, it's climactic, 95% of all value

down pretty much it's an across-the-board weakness. the dollar has been a huge story this week. the u.s. dollar index is in surge mode it's the flip side of what's going on in fixed income so net tightening move by the fed but people caught on the wrong side of this crowded trades, getting called out. finally the volatility index, it has some lift to it. it's around 20 that's the line between agitated and normal and calm. on a friday that usually does mean that people are clenched up a little bit >> to your point about the dollar, the swiss franc, the british pound, the euro, the australian dollar and canadian dollar all down 1% to 2% against the u.s. dollar. >> as we drop getting closer to the close. there's the dow, 530 points. that is the low of the session now, 534, the new low of the session for the dow taking its

weekly loss down to 3.5% the s&p 500 down 1.33% or 2% for the week and the nasdaq is closing in on a 1% side on the session, taking it into negative territory for the week as a whole as well. the russell down over 2% at the close and down 4% for the week all 11 sectors on the s&p 500 in the red at the close energy and financials and utilities down more than 2% on the session at the close s&p down 1.3%, dow down 1.6% and the nasdaq down just shy of 1% welcome to "closing bell." i am courtney reagan in for sara eisen along with wilfred frost and mike santoli the dow did close here at the lows of the session down 532 points that's where 1.6%. the s&p 500 also lower by about 1.3% or 56 points. and the nasdaq sold off 0.8 of a

percent. the russell 2000 down more than 2% by far the biggest laggard of the big four indices that we follow. coming up, david rosenberg on this fed-fueled sell-off and how its new interest rate timeline could impact the economy. plus we will get the outlook for tech stocks which have outperformed this week when we are joined by jeffries brent thill. barbara duran is still with us and joe ann finley from advisers capital management is joining the conversation mike, we're going to start off the first comment with you as we always do here we did end up closing at the lows of the session, accelerating the last 45 seconds. >> a little bit of an air pocket you had all the machinations with the expiration, but also i guess you always have some suspense as to whether there's going to be some buy or sell orders on the close, people deciding this was the time to pick things up the s&p challenging its 50-day moving average and it was a weak demand profile at the very close. it shows you that sellers remained in control for the

moment this rotation became very violent away from value and it really did have some wear and tear on the indexes. it seems like moderating growth path in the economy, a fed that is not just letting it rip and it maybe has some members wanting to pay more attention to inflation, has people focused on more sustainable type companies, earnings stories as opposed to the plain old we're going to buy this stuff with maximum leverage through an economic acceleration. >> so options expired in the past that's good news 50-day average, where did we close? >> just a little under it's much more of a concern if that 50-day average is not going higher so it's a technical test. i think in general the market is getting a little bit of a stress test how much conviction do you have that in fact the economy is going to grow much longer, that the fed will be patient and benign and that corporate earnings estimates are going to continue to go higher. all those things were big inputs into a 14% gain going into the

middle of june >> joanne, i'm going to bring you into the conversation here obviously a very big fed meeting this week. it's been the talk of markets ever since then. how are you reading some of jay powell's message to the market, and then what's played out with equities, and what do you think that means going into the following weeks? >> well, you know, courtney, investors really shouldn't have been surprised as a portfolio manager and an economist, i was prepared for the fed to increase its inflation forecast and to point to sooner increases in interest rates. i was bit surprised by the degree of pull-back in the market this is really quite a different situation than we've experienced before on the cusp of a rate increase from the fed. the reason it's so different is because, yes, we do have inflation. we have shortages, prices are going up but we also have this ongoing tailwind of reopening, not just in the united states but globally so when you look around for equities to hold, there are opportunities, some very attractive ones, both in the smart cyclicals as i like to

call them but also the secular growth names if you build into such a portfolio using individual stocks, you can get a lot of control, you can also build in protection against inflation risks as well as risk to other policy variables like tax rate increases. so we view the equity markets as fairly attractive if you're selective. while inflation and interest rates are clearly going up at some point, we think the market has really overreacted, particularly when it comes to the banks, which should see a strong tailwind as the cash runs out from the ppp programs and households run through their savings, we're going to see loan numbers come up. so it's always a good time to buy banks when the outlook for them is so negative as it is now. >> barb, i know you prefer growth names over cyclicals at this point but materials, financials and energy for the week as a whole all down 5% or 6% which of those would you be most tempted to buy on any further dip? >> the financials, materials, i think probably materials because

reopening is continuing and it's not just us. europe and a lot of the world is lagging behind us in terms of vaccinations, particularly some of the smaller, less developed countries. as they get more control there, there will be more demand. so i think materials would be still attractive you've had copper, lumber off dramatically i think there's other areas you could start to look at financials as i explained earlier, i would still stay away from although she's probably correct in the second half you should see a bit of a pickup but not enough i think the valuations are pretty hefty. >> st. louis fed president james bullard really was the person that sent markets into a tailspin this morning after saying that he thinks the federal reserve will raise interest rates late next year. earlier that the consensus expectation of 2023. still 18 months away here is bullard discussing that point of view and his expectations for inflation on "squawk box. >> the ideal path in my mind

would be the 3% this year will be okay and then we'll get that down to 2.5% next year and will converge to 2% from there. but to do that, you know, we're going to have to adjust policy some we've already made a somewhat hawkish move here in june. >> joanne, do you think the market was right to sell off on the back of that point of view >> well, i think it was an overreaction if you parse his comments as an economist, right, you actually don't see a lot there to be alarmed b it's within the fed's guidance that we should expect inflation for some period of time and if inflation expectations are longer term than that 2%, that's not a problem for even high multiple stocks and so, again, when you look at the real drivers of growth and surely we're going to see growth come down from the high rate we're seeing some quarter, the fundamentals for growth, there's a lot of opportunity here for the technology companies

again, if you're selective so i do think the market has gotten a little ahead of itself in worrying that the fed by raising rates would slow down growth too much. that i think is the underlying fear and i think that's the one that's misplaced the reason that we're going to see those shortages abate whether it's semi conductors or commodities, we're already seeing some prices come down as we go through the next 12 to 18 months, because of those shortages, growth will be a little bit slower, but growth is there if we're going on for longer and that means in equities, you'll have an opportunity to ride these growth stocks even longer than you would otherwise. >> barbara, i was going to follow up on joanne's point about the shortages that we're seeing in so many different areas. maybe it's commodities, maybe it's toys for christmas. i know there was a story talking about toy makers having trouble getting some of that inventory in as early as they would like it is that really going to be the key to inflation and how long it's going to last, what's going on with the global supply chain and what that means for the

supply and demand of the products >> yes i think it's both. i think it's both demand and supply chain we're quickly seeing, of course, every company is racing to get the supply chain issues sorted out and you're already seeing -- there was a gentleman on cnbc this morning talking about counting container ships at the ports. they're already down dramatically so you're seeing lots of bottlenecks already starting to clear. you can arguably say demand is really at the peak right now we've got more reopening to go, but people have exploded out of their homes. so i think it's a combination of demand and supply chains, which will resolve these are not long-term factors. these are one-time, nonrecurring it's very predictable that this will happen and they will come down i'm not sure why -- the interest rate curve is showing us that the market does believe interest rates will stay low, and that's very supportive. not to mention all the liquidity we still have. >> mike, what's happened to gold, down 6%?

>> inflation expectations that are embedded in the market, in the bond market, have collapsed since the fed meeting. that means that inflation adjusted yields have gone up real yields have gone up and that is kind of completely the antidote to gold in many respects, so that's big. plus we've got the dollar rallying so everything in this whole kind of constellation of moves pretty much fits together with this idea that the market has radically compressed its expectations for inflation the market is doing the fed's work for it. the fed is not going to have to do anything if this continues on this path, which is why i think bullard should not be taken as representing the center of gravity on where the fed sits. he's one of the seven who thought there would be a rate hike next year that's the minority. it's not where the consensus is. the consensus is 2023. he also said we'll have to change our policy to get stw inflation from 3% to 2%.

i think the fed is thinking this is just a transitory episode and it's just going to trend lower so that's a little bit of the o offset that the market is providing. the market gets there before the fed does. >> and late next year is still 18 months away. >> mike, what about talking about talking about tapering and just that comment, putting the idea out there that it's beginning to be a discussion point, a bullet point on a later agenda does that mean the market thinks they're thinking about it and they're acting as if it's happening. >> the market does start the clock on that a little bit what's fascinating is if that's all that was different about this fed meeting, i think the market would have been much better than if it didn't see all those folks in the outlooks suggest that they are therefore going to do something more with interest rates the reason the taper matters to me is not about the actual amount of money that the fed puts into the system to acquire bonds which is what the asset

purchase program is. it's the fact that when the taper is done, that's the prelude to rates going up. so it's a signaling mechanism to say if we're still buying bonds and haven't tapered, it's a really long time to go up. >> we will leave the markets on there today. thank you very much, barbara and joanne, for joining us much appreciate it as always have lovely weekends. up next, david rosenberg on the outlook for the economy as the fed steps up its interest rate hike timeline plus technology outperforming the broader market brent thill on whether tech is about to take off. we're back in 90 seconds

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[music ends] stocks tumbling today following hawkish remarks from james bullard. the dow having its worst day since may 12th and posting its worst week since october joining us now, david rosenberg. good to hear from you. thanks for joining us. what, first of all, did you make of the yield curve move today? did that make sense to you given the comments we got yesterday and this morning from fed members, and the increase in inflation expectations >> well, actually the move in the curve and the flattening that we're getting actually is one of the things that makes perfect sense because bringing up the rate hikes will filter right through to the front end of the yield curve and then what's happened at the same time the fed is doing this is that the principal source of

inflation, which has been the commodities sector, has peaked out and rolled over. it was doing that even before the fomc meeting so you have this confluence of factors with the feds bringing up the date of the tightening and at the same time you're getting inflation expectations actually starting to roll the other way. you get a rally at the back end and a sell-off at the front end. >> and so obviously in light of that, we've seen a strong dollar, weak commodities and soft equities today. did all of those reactions also make sense to you? >> well, you know, the markets will have their exaggerated moves. look, i would tell you that i was struck in a six-week period, wilf, it's almost as if powell did a 180. now, we can argue as to how hawkish and the fact they haven't really done anything much, which is true. if you go and read the q & a from six weeks ago in the press

conference to what he said on wednesday, it's not like six weeks went by, it's like six months went by there was a definitive change in his tone so i would say, yes, the markets obviously will always weigh the risks. you can argue there's been a bit of an exaggeration here but we've got to keep in mind that the forward multiple is 21 you know, it's not like 14 or 15 so you still have pretty lofty multiples here so i think that the market reaction has been exaggerated perhaps but it's been what i would expect because i think the tone by powell and even today by bullard, if you want to call it more hawkish, less dovish, at the margin the fed's tone has changed and markets have responded accordingly. >> david, speaking of exaggerated, what do you make of the move in commodities as you brought up there earlier in the week the bank of

america global said commodities had taken over bitcoin but we saw a sell-off in so many commodities except for the price of oil. >> right oil is almost operating on its own particular set of unique supply and demand characteristics. i would think for a while looking at global industrial production and then weighing it against the crb index that, yes, the crb index should have been in a recovery phase. but we had estimated that more than 80% of the move in commodities had nothing to do with the global economy and everything to do with financial speculation. the next thing you know, you start looking at this weekly cumulative traders reports and the speculative longs in virtually every commodity is going through the roof i think a lot of the decline has been coming out not so much of the economic aspect of the move in commodities but the financial aspect it's enforced by the fact that chinese regulators are starting to clamp down on financial

excesses and commodities as well on the exchanges so that had a compounding impact for a while people were talking about real inflation coming out of commodities give me a break. much of the upturn was financial excess and speculation now that's easing out of the market >> what's your view on the dollar from here, david? >> well, i was beginning to think it was just one of these countertrend rallies now that we've broken some of the trend lines, looking at the charts it can probably have more legs the one thing we do know is, for example, the ecb is not going to be doing any policy tightening ahead of schedule. the uk right now is of course having more problems right now with the variant, so the sterling is under pressure the commodity currencies with the resource crisis, they're rolling over so the u.s. dollar near term is probably going to be appreciating now we've got a new game in time up until the time that powell does or the fed starts doing

backtracking or walking away from the less dovish posture that they announced just the other day, i think the dollar near term probably has more legs and that means of course that the value trade will continue to give up momentum towards the growth trade in that environment. >> david, before we let you go and get to your weekend, i do want to ask you a bigger question about the economy obviously stimulus is still happening. what happens when that stimulus dries up will consumer spending dry up? will gdp growth slow down? what should we be expecting when some of these juiced-up wallets become a little, perhaps, dryer? >> that's really a great question i'm still really surprised that there's so many people out there thinking that the economy is still accelerating, because i'm not seeing that at all in the data we just got two straight months of negative prints in core control retail sales the housing numbers have been rolling over

i was stunned that jay powell went to the podium to say the housing market is strong the home building stocks are down 15% from where they were at their nearby peak. in terms of the stimulus, look, those stimulus checks, that was another one of these one-shot deals. it's done. the new york fed has already told us that only 25% of the stimulus checks end up going into the real economy. the rest gets used to pay down debt or boost savings. when i do the arithmetic, most of that has been spent you had a guest on before saying that the savings bulge will be wound down and consumers will spend more money well, that's an assumption most of that money has been spent. the fiscal stimulus is really in the rear-view mirror not just that, but the reopening trade when you look at the incremental impact on growth, most of that is behind us too. really the big deal will be that the fiscal stimulus has already sub

subsided this economy -- there's been two sources of vie tilttality for te economy, stimulus checks and vaccinations most of that impact in terms of incremental growth is subsiding. and the fiscal wall is going to be the big story in the second half of the year. >> thank you for joining us, david rosenberg of rosenberg research >> thank you let's send it over to mike santoli for a look at how some growth stocks are performing again, cyclicals, a topic we've been talking about all show. >> lots of ways to slice and illustrate exactly what's going on between these preference shifts investors have between the long-term growth story and the shorter term economic cyclical move. this is dow transports against amazon really convenient here over the year to date or the last five months this by the way is when covid cases peaked in the united states, so that's five months ago. obviously great move to successive new highs on the transports until we started rolling in the last couple of

weeks. amazon had gone nowhere since september 1st. finally starting to show signs of breaking higher it's viewed as much more stability as well as the cloud play you see them, basically these complete inverse assets happening right now. bank of america against paypal, this is the market caps of these two companies over the last five years. obviously massive catch-up move as people just rush for all the payments and fin tech plays against b of a -- actually surpassed b of a in market cap paypal did bank of america comes back up and yields surge this year now we're pretty close to being even again so i don't think you can say the verdict is in, we know which way the market will go if anything, i think the market will be less governed by the either/or value push but i've been saying that for a while. >> fascinating to be reminded paypal is worth $300 billion but the analysis about amazon

and the point about mega cap which brings that solidity of cash flow rather than being expensive tech, there's a lot of divergence within that five or six names of growth. apple not doing so at the same time, not quite yet. >> one way i like to separate them is apple and amazon provide products and services that the customer directly buys and knows he or she is buying. whereas google and facebook really were the better beneficiaries of this environment and levered to advertising. so it's much more the platform play and obviously come back travel has been helping them in advertising. so also the pendulum swings between preferences right there. definitely amazon showing at least the stirrings of trying for a catch-up move. >> based on those categorizations, where do you put tesla? >> well, tesla is the former category people know what they're buying. but the ratio of the market

value capitalizing this imagined future for tesla to the actual here and now purchases of the cars is pretty extreme still. >> right it's about buying or putting a $1,000 deposit down to buy one one day. mike, thank you. >> all right. well, value stocks have been under a lot of pressure this week, so is now the time to bet on tech stocks jeffries brent thill is in next. later, jonathan golub on whether he is seeing buying opportunities amid the sell-f. ick with "closing bell." we'll be right back.

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the nasdaq down 1% today names like adobe and match managing the close the day in the green. joining us now is brent thill an analyst with jeffries. thanks for being here with us, brent. i understand that you've added amazon to your franchise picks list while removing google amazon, though, has kind of just traded sideways, it hasn't made a lot of headway, so why are you so bullish on amazon from here >> yeah. i think to your point, amazon has underperformed, google has

had a massive outperformance year to date on a one-year basis. we continue to believe in the sum of the parts of amazon being north of $4200 a share if you look at while e-commerce will slow and there's no question we're going back to stores to buy, e-com will have tough comps, the software and ad business are reaccelerating in a fantastic position aws owns 60% market share of the mega clouds with microsoft at 30 and google at 10 when you look at all the private companies that we work with as a firm they're all going to aws. these are ten-year contracts that they're staying on the platform given the 40% to 50% plus bookings growth in aws, you're going to continue to see really good numbers, 30% plus growth. really high margin business. so while the lower margin businesses have tough comps and e-com, the high margin businesses like advertising and software are inflecting and accelerating so we like that dynamic in

amazon and we like the software guy that's in charge we think ultimately that means higher margins over time. >> and you just went through three of amazon's big businesses, though not the only silos. you can parse out many more. e-commerce, aws and advertising. then you have potential regulation coming down the pipeline or at least more scrutiny out of washington, d.c. do you not see that as a threat to a company like amazon >> definitely a threat, but every time it's a threat, you buy the stock. we've been covering tech for 25 years. any time microsoft had an overhang with the eu investigation, $30 stock obviously had a huge move from that point so our call has been buy the regulatory fear. respect it, but buy the fear for investors. we do not believe that there will be a breakup. if i'm wrong, investors will benefit even more because the sum of the parts will yield incredible upside.

that's how we value amazon we don't value it on a whole, we look at each part of the business, apply it an individual multiple if they broke up the other parts of the business, let's say they spun off aws, this would be one of the largest market caps in tech alone just for aws. so any way you slice it, it feels like they're in a good position >> brent, in the back of a fed meeting week when you're doing your price targets for all of your picks in the tech sector, how closely are you factoring in what yields are doing, what interest rates are doing in terms of the discount rate you use? or is that not really a factor unless we're up to 3%, 4%? >> well, if it's an important point, i'd say on our tech desk, jared weisfeld have said we're seeing material buying on our desk because of rates not moving in a big way we think there's a short-term

ceiling that's pushed money back into tech, pushed money back into software, higher multiple names. you've seen it in names that go absolutely vertical for other reasons as well including insider buying but you've seen growth coming back so it factors into our overall recommendations as a firm. as the fundamental analyst, it doesn't factor in as much. it's certainly one of many things that factor in. but i just say from a tech flow, our tech desk is seeing for the first time a lot of our clients are really stepping back into growth you saw it today in a lot of the growth software names on our desk. >> brent, i know that the e-commerce part of amazon is not the biggest profit center for certain, but that is what many people know amazon for and prime day is just around the corner. in general, how important is prime day to amazon? >> it's important in the sense to get more people on prime. we still think globally there's a huge opportunity you look at what you get as a prime member, the benefits are

massive. so i think ultimately it's important to continue to get people on subscription, get them on the recurring revenue, and that creates another flywheel such as the software business, such as the ad business. again, these are really high margin businesses. so it's important but not the primary driver for the story this year. >> brent, we've hit amazon if we go down the market cap scale, what is your other top pick at the moment or something that you've upgraded of late and changed your tune on >> yeah, i mean we like match and bumble in dating as europe reopens, you're going to see booking.com do very well, a lot of their revenue is in europe on the internet side, we like thimio you look at google and what they did with youtube on the ad-funded side you look at vimeo, incredible opportunity, very well run so we

like vimeo as a smid cap story asana you've had massive insider buying he's been putting his own money in and a lot of insider buying so you look at asana it's been a top pick for us as well there's a handful of names on internet and software that look pretty attract i've here. >> brent, thanks for joining us. good to see you. >> have a good weekend. >> you too. still ahead credit suisse chief jonathan golub on whether he is still bullish on the market despite inflation and interest rate concerns. june is pride month. we are spotlighting business leaders and our own cnbc anchors and producers. here is cnbc's emily desisio. >> coming out meant trusting the feelings that i had been repressing for decades and

freeing myself from the restrictive expectations i felt completely burdened by they held me back. but when i learned to advocate for myself, i was able to step into my own light and everything is so much brighter.

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here's what's happening. the united nations gem assembly approving a resolution to condemn myanmar's military coup and call for an arms embargo the u.n. demanding a halt to human rights abuses and killings in myanmar they predict half of the population will be living below the poverty line by next year if the situation there does not improve. a trucker who drove into a crowd of social justice demonstrators in minneapolis may have the charges against him dropped. a judge ruling that felony and misdemeanor charges will be dismissed if the truck driver remains a law-abiding citizen for a year nobody was seriously hurt in that incident. and president biden is warning us americans about the delta covid variant. that's the more contagious and potentially more deadly strain he wants more people to get their shots and stop the spread and get the u.s. closer to herd immunity tonight meg tirrell on what to do about kids and the delta variant, and we'll go live to missouri, the latest covid hot

spot and the battle against that new covid surge, on the news, right after jim cramer, 7:00 eastern, cnbc. courtney, back to you. >> a lot to watch for tonight on your show. thank you, shep. coming up next, credit suisse equity strategist jonathan golub on whether he thinks this pullback is a buying opportunity. as we head to break, here's a check on the biggest losers in the dow. chevron down 4%. same with walgreens, goldman 5% dn down 3.5%, intelow 2.

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stocks plunging today with the dow having its worst day since may 12th and its worst week of the year let's bring in jonathan golub. good to see you, thanks for joining us >> good to be here >> let's get your reaction to today's market moves, first of all, and whether that was just a one-off or you think something legitimate and the start of something bigger starting the fed meeting this week. >> well, the market seems to be having a little bit of a hissy fit over the fed announcement and it seems to be playing out

over several days and it's probably more that than anything else the yield curve is flattening, value is rotating out of favor, growth in favor, small caps out. even more than the market being down, there appears to be a bit of a realignment i think it's important to put this into longer term context. the market was up 43% over the last year. now it's up 40% over the last year and so while this matters and we care, you know, it doesn't really fundamentally change the story of what's going on >> one other factor that i notice you've been writing about is we've been so focused on monetary policy this week is fiscal policy and the prospects of further significant sizeable government spending diminishing and whether that needs to be priced into the market a little bit? >> well, i mean that's true. what you had this past year is a whole variety of measures, whether it was -- over the last

year people were getting money from the government if they were small businesses to keep them afloat there were supplemental income payments to individuals. if you're unemployed you got money from the government. many of those are going to be rolling off. so there is a natural downdraft on those however, and it's really important, a lot of the money that was given to people was never spent because they couldn't go out and do the things they wanted to do so people's bank accounts are flush, their credit card debt is down, and they're dying to go out. especially over the next, you know, 12 months we're going to see the unemployment rate continue to collapse there's going to be lots of opportunity for people to spending so i don't think it's a problem that the government is going to be handing out less, but it is clearly something that we have our eye on and we're focused on. >> so earlier in the show barbara doran thought we might be mid-stage of the cycle, but if you think consumers are still

holding on to the extra cash or are flush with cash from other sources and ready to spend, then it seems like you think we're earlier on in this economic cycle and economic rebound. >> for somebody to say this is mid-cycle is just crazy. this quarter we're going to have something like 13% gdp the last time we had something like that was, you know, in the early 1950s under the marshall plan and that's this quarter. and then it takes a big plunge and we only get 7% gdp in the second half based on economists' expectations across the street that means we're going from six or seven times the run rate, the long-term average on gdp to only three to four times. i mean these numbers are extraordinary. and this does not happen in the middle part of the cycle if you look at the unemployment rate, we're 6% or so now a year from now we'll be something like 4.5%. you don't have a 6% unemployment rate early on and not have it

plunging this is what happens early on in the cycle. and the supply chain disruptions and the lack of ability to get the things that we need. we're nowhere near mid-cycle the real question and the fed addressed this head on when, do we get back to normal? that's what the dot plots are telling you. sometime between the middle of next year and middle of 2023. >> what's your outlook, jonathan, for the dollar from here both short and medium term and does that alter your preference for whether we should be focused on u.s. equities or overseas >> well, so first of all, i don't spend -- as a guy who's focused on u.s. equity markets, i don't spending that much time looking at currency. a weaker dollar is good for corporate profits, but a stronger dollar is good for stock market valuation so it's not as big an impact but if you ask the question on u.s. versus non-u.s., it really does appear, given our view that this is going to be a really strong economic environment and

this week is not a trend but rather a small adjust due to the fed announcement, we think non-u.s. does a lot better why? they have more banks, they have more autos, more manufacturing businesses all of those businesses do well in a red-hot economy and unfortunately in the u.s. we have less of those the good news is we have more tech, more health care, more innovation longer term those are winners. i just don't think they're going to lead the market right now >> what do you think are some of the biggest risks to the market and to economic growth as you see it, if you think we are much earlier in the cycle than what some of our other guests thought earlier in the show? >> well, you know, it's a funny thing. i think we learned a little bit of a lesson this week. if the 10-year bond yield ends meaningfully lower than it is right now, i think it's going to be a real concern for the market and we're going to start to hear the term stagflation

and i don't think that's necessarily going to happen, but you want to look at risks. the market would rather have interest rates 30, 40, 50 basis points higher on the 10-year between now and the end of the year than lower, because lower says something is broken i think that what we're going to find is that this inflation is temporary. but temporary is going to last much longer than we think. so i think that we're going to be looking at heightened inflation for the next year plus but not something that's a long-term problem. and if there's a risk that we'd all probably agree on, inflation jumped to 5% last week if we see the inflation numbers meaningfully going higher than this, forget about what the fed does, investors will have a bigger problem. >> jonathan, good to see you thanks so much for joining us. >> have a great weekend. >> you too. up next, the nation's largest black bank laying out the six financial tools that can

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a typical white family has a net worth more than six times that of a typical black family now the nation's largest black bank is offering six money moves to help close that gap frank holland has the details. hi, frank. >> hey there, courtney well, the racial wealth gap in this country could be as high as

$13.5 trillion according to new research from duke university. as we recognize juneteenth, one black bank in the u.s. is launching the one transaction campaign listing sixmoney decisions that can help bridge that gap they include buying a home, owning a profitable business, investing in the stock market, buying life stock market, buying life insurance, improving credit, and haves a will >> building wealth is like building anything else, like building a house one knows how to assemble a house, how to bring together a bunch of raw materials and then to construct them in a very specific way >> black homeownership has declined since 2001 fallen 45% and white homeownership held at 74%. and new reports show 60% of the racial wealth gap annually is through inheritance highlighting the need for stay planning, a

handwritten will is valid and legal document in most states. >> this is very interesting and statistics are eye-opening if black americans take advantage of these tips how much can it add to the overall economy, the gdp, i imagine there could be a pretty big impact. >> you know, courtney, mckeckckenzie put out input if we close the gap by 2028 could add as much as 6% to gdp. >> very eye-opening. thank you. >> still to come, everything you need to know as another trading week fast approaches and we'll also discuss amazon prime day and what retailers and investors should look for alike, back in a couple minutes

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we are counting down to monday's kick off of amazon's prime day. up next, find out how much the online retail giant could rake in and why it could be profitable for competitors when "closing bell" returns okay, imagine this... your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot.

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the only problem? more appointments meant he needed more space. that's when dr. petsworth turned to his american express business card, which offers spending potential that's built for his changing business needs. he used his card to furnish a new exam room and everyone was happy. get the card built for business. by american express. welcome back we've got a news alert on the cruise industry. christina with the story. >> we have the cdc that couldn't force a sail order that most all passengers need to be vaccinated florida found this to be unconstitutional and took it to court, a federal judge has

agreed that the sails orders are unconstitutional, not everyone needs to be vaccinated right now the orders are in place until july 18th. this is a big change for all of those cruise ships that leave florida. this coming from a federal judge moving in the same direction as florida. back to you. >> wow, that's a big one, thank you, we'll watch that one. monday at 3:00 a.m. eastern time amazon kicks off its 7th prime day, earliest in the year yet only eight months since the last one worldwide sales expected to grow $11.8 billion over the 48-hour event. it is attracting new prime members. you have to be a member to get the deals and fly wheel strategy extends to those deals, biggest discounts on sellers are on amazon own product like the echo devices and amazon tv sticks

hundreds of others have retail deals, seeing 10% increase in sales online during prime day last year compared to smaller reta retailers, it has a halo effect on the industry and bigger players can offer bigger discounts, shoppers know that so they will check walmart, best buy, macy's, kohl's and the others. >> why start at 3:00, why not midnight. >> because midnight on the west coast, so 3:00 a.m. here 48 hours. >> so it's actually a lot of streaming movies, shows drop at 3:00 eastern time. >> we'll see if that gives a boost. as you were pointing out, mike's already had a nice little pick up of late and of course over the weekend watching what happens in the commodity complex, bitcoin complex and sell off into the

close today. >> definitely, as i mentioned, some of the stress indicators are starting to flair a little bit. interesting though we might get some fed speak next week, john williams new york fed may walk back some implications of the fed message. >> that does it for the "closing bell." i want to wish my husband very happy first father's day this weekend. to you as well that does it for us. >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site over looking new york city time square this is "fast money" tonight's trader lineup karen finerman, steve grasso, tim seymour and james mcdonald one of our traders says the market is confused, what they saw that was a real head-scratcher, we'll break it down straight ahead. plus chartmaster says look out below what is carter worth seeing in the charts later. we're going bargain hunting, the beaten down stocks that are worth a second look.