we spent a bit more on things, but things were so easy to get i would say that's something we did. >> i think people had the time there was millennial looking into life insurance, because there was a moment of what would i do we talked about wills and such dom, thanks. we appreciate it. thanks for watching "power lunch," everything "closing bell" starts right now. >> see you tomorrow. welcome to "closing bell." the market is heating up on the first day of trading for summer. let's look at -- every sector in the green with energy, industrials and financials among the biggest winners. tech is a relative underperformer nasdaq is still firmly in e

green as well maybe bitcoin, because bitcoin and ethereum are also seeing sizable pullbacks. the dow is on pay for what would be the best day since march. >> we're up about 562. we will be all over today's market rally throughout the show coming up this hour, inferring, francisco blanch says oil could be heading a lot higher from here later we're launching a new series called curb your inflation. today we kick it off with rick reider from blackrock. >> mike santoli is tracking all of the action for us paul hickey is here, and elan

sapporo. michael, said the scene for us we picked up more than half of what was lost last week it fell below the 50h day average. usually not the worst place. because the market had flattened out so much, it lost some altitude it seemed people had a rethink on the reaction to the fed also a lot of positioning got swept out in those three days of heavy selling. you didn't see any financial stretch anywhere else. so it seemed perhaps not much had changed. now take a look here at this

whole growth versus value thing. this could suggest maybe the cyclical that is the russ the 202000 maybe is a lot to give up and it's exactly the reverse. there's actually cases to be made for both. i think it's why it's become more muddled.

>> welcome to both of you today. last week people got to spooked about the hawkishness of the fed? >> i think what we're seeing today then it finished below where it was. >> there's good cases to be made on both sides, but i think what's important to know is the news and headlines are tells you what has happened i think that

message is what we are seeing is optimist over the pace of economic growth may be ahead of itself we may see, you know, some disappointments on the growth front going forward. >> right, a little firmer day, delano, but the yield curve has atlantaened. if you trust the signal from the bond market, what do you do with stocks >> that's a great question we saw stocks pull back, and then a rethink it's been sticking to what's been said, which is one of our mandates is to make sure growth are back in play and we're not so much focused on what they have a transitory inflation, so if the market is listening to

what the fed has been staying, the market has been buys on that inclination, i think investors want to stick with that playbook, because that hasn't turned investors wrong so far. the growth play still strong, and you know, for growth investors, i think ear still in a good position here, expansion in the economy is still strong >> on that theme, paul, i'm curious, i don't know if you are listening to mike santoli, but that underperformance of apple and amazon since september versus the russell is really notable, and yes, of course, over the last five years, amazon and apple had dramatically outperformed the russell my question, which would you rather own right now, the russell or amazon and apple? >> that's a good yes i would rather own the megacap

amazon and apple there's earnings behind that growth their valuation versus the broader market is relatively in line that amazon is shown on the per earnings faucet. some of the hyper-growth stocks, that may be an area you still want to avoid. but growth at this reasonable price, i think you're in good hands there. >> the other group i wanted to ask you about is the reopening play the airlines have been so hot. obviously that's real. we're seeing it translate into the real economy with the comeback of demand has that been played out,

though if you are looking at the bond market and expecting slower growth and a fed tighteningle, what happens is it already priced in? >> i think some of it is we're still not fuy through the reopening, right there's so much pent-up demand as people return to work, and they had the ability to fulfill that some of the metrics we want to look at as an investor, personal spending, we want to track that and see the spending month to month. we want to look at the eventually the first day of the summer, i think there's more for some of the reopens plays to go. >> longest day of the year. >> paul, finally you answered

the question, which i appreciated, so i'll ask, is there anything else that's similar to -- on the valuation perspective, also say is worth a buy here it's broadly defined >> you know, i think amazon, microsoft, are two names we own, we like. getting back to the reopening plays, i think there are some names that you can still play there, like carnival is maybe like the cruise line stocks still have the taboo associated, who wants to get on a crews. people who have gone on cruises in the past are still willing to go forward with that as long as covid remains in a remission stage, you'll see cruises just as popular as ever. all right. gentlemen, thank you we appreciate it. >> i wasn't here on friday, but i want to say one thing about james bullard, who we have covered for a long time.

he flip-flops a lot, which is okay sheer supposed to bond to incoming data, but he often makes a lot of headlines, and finds himself on the fringe, so i'm not surprised there's a rebound given some of the consternation, he often moves markets because he makes big headlines and not necessarily in sync with the current fed chair, and not a voter. anyway, my two cents >> i wanted to hear it i got it within ten minutes. and looking forward to more. up next, we have on the floor big tech names sitting out today's rally. amazon is in the middle of the annual prime day sale, and whether he would buy the stock, as we see is down just a bit during this rally. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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courtney reagan has a big look at amazon's shopping event. >> we're actually about a quarter of the way through, and so far no issues we have seen as in some years past as the noon the tom items are echo dot, huggies, snug and dry diapers, and collagen peptide power, whatever that is. adobe analysis says overjaw the discounts over the cyber-holiday weekend are about two times deeper, but shoppers expert other deals around prime day, so they're going to shop around walmart deals for days goes

through wednesday. that's online and in store target is in the middle of the three-day deal day best buy has several competing events a flash sale was on friday, and bigger says leading up to and through prime day. retailers saw a 10% higher increase in sales online, the pair was smaller retailers, the hundreds much retailers are expected to offer discounts to compete. physical retails also see two times better conversion than those without on the very competitive selling period back over to you, sara and david. for more on what prime day could be, let's bring in tom forte they have created a real thing over the last few years, given the increase in sales that courtney was pointing to across the board. how important does it remain for

amazon itself? >> for amazon, years ago, this was an opportunity to basically have a dry run from a fulfillment center standpoint, so test the fulfillment centers to make sure they were ready for holiday surge between black friday and cybermonday last year they essentially had to move prime day into the fourth quarter to find the best solution in a challenging year this is more like the prime days pre-pandemic, an opportunity to test the performance centers, make sure they're ready for the holiday surge. >> what year-o overyear comparisons? >> the way i'm thinking about it is the former. last year, if you think about

it, they were not able to meet the surge in demand. this year they have more fulfillment center square footage, i think they're ready so in hindsight, a look at 2020 as an increasing comparison and not a tough one because of their ability to better meet demand this year. >> what's going on with the stock, tom testify making a move higher in recent weeks it did look like it was getting ready to break out. >> basically the pressure is the transition into cyclicals, things of that nature. at the same time, i have one eye on prime day, and i have one eye on anti-trust for amazon cnbc has done a great job talking about the five bills in the house and the one bill in

the senate it's interesting to see how it might rein in the power. i think it's still to be determined i think that combination, unexpected sales would dive the stock higher, but at the same time i'm monitoring the regulatory risk that would make the performance more difficult in the second half. >> lisa kohn also being named in the s.e.c. >> we've seen such growth in names like shopify, which offers similar services, if you are a third-party retailer is there any competition there for amazon, or are they just so big? >> i think third-party retail and evolution of marketplaces, there's a lot of competition there. think etsy as an example what i i expect them to do the

same and i think that could go to 75% over time. it's a higher profit than first-party sales and amazon >> we'll leave it there. thank you very much. we have about 42 minutes -- we're higher by 581 points or so, pushing higher into the close. every sector is green. it's not coming at the expense of big tech. the russell 2000 index is the biggest winner still ahead, the trade on the inflation situation. rick reider joins us with his take on all the fed signals surrounding inflation and what he's recommending to clients right now. as we head out to break, some of top search tickers, ten-year

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welcome back nasdaq has lagging, but still not a bad day's work there and the russell, which mike santoli led off the broadcast with, i was watching, mike, and continues that surge today, sir. meantime the restaurant industry was hit pretty hard their recovery has been uneven kate rogers has the chef betting on the future of dining in las vegas. kate >> hey, sara, i got a chance to keep up with bobby flay last week as he opens his newest restaurant in las vegas, called amalfi he says vegas is popping. >> the energy in las vegas is through the roof i've been in lawyers -- i've had

mesa grill here in this space, and now it's amalfi, but i think that las vegas is headed for probably their biggest summer maybe in history, just because people want to get out of their houses, maybe they're not ready to get on a plane to go overseas yet. >> he also says there's system reasons that the energy at large is struggling. maybe people aren't so quick to go to work if they're getting good unemployment checks i can't speak to everything, but that's what we're hearing in the marketplace, and the covid concerns, though they have quieted down somewhat over the lost month or so i think there's still people who have those concerns and those are valid. >> another thing you mentioned, inflation, of course, costs are rising everywhere. you know what that means for

customers, guys. back over to you. >> and he didn't have his cat in the interview. last time it was -- >> no cat. we get all sorts of realtime data what are you seeing in the trends is the demand as strong as it has been in recent weeks >> yes two interesting things are happening. sales and traffic continue to trend in the last direction they were both down about 20% to 30% that same week in terms of the markets, all the casualty dining names are really rallying this year several investment firms think there's pent-up demand, and perhaps a new era of dining. years ago that was kind of left for dead, and all about fast

foods. >> thank you still to kim route here. energy is far and away the best sector, up roughly 4%. bank of america says oil prices, they could be heading higher we'll speak with francisco blanch here's a quick check on bonds as we head to break the yields are you will slightly there it is. 1.492% "closing bell" will be right back

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coffee story in scrubs >> like plays a doctor like, soon ebl probably not, but they are comfortable. i think what's make the -- it's cool it's a very high loyalty rate. they love it that's a $12 billion market or so so they're changing that i was tess doctor dashes she was wearing figure, and i noticed it she look very fashionable. >> did you mention it? >> i did not seema mody. >> hey, david, the white house says today, if as expected, the senate fails to pass a sweeping voting rights bill when

considered tomorrow, it will prompt what jen psaki calls a new conversation about the filibuster, and hours after the new iran's president says he does not want to meet with president biden, the white house says biden has no plans to meet with him while there's still hopes of a revival of nuclear details with iran dilgts aged 18 to 39 have the lower rate of -- safety and efficacy are the most common concerns. for the first time since the pandemic began, new orleans is lay lowing traditional second line parades thousands gathered to pay tribute to fathers who have died in covid in anaverage year there's 800 second lines in the streets. >> that's good video

seema, thank you just unit 30 minutes to go before the close the market is higher the dow is up limb 2% and nasdaq lagging, but still a pretty strong day. up next, francisco blanch y0u9 lines the key drives. >> june is pride month, and we are spotlighting contributors, business leaders, here's cnbc's shepard smith. >> my advise to lgptq people coming up, never by afraid of or ashamed how you feel don't let anybody make you afraid tell the truth, live the truth, you be you, and the future is so bright

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joining us is the person behind that call, francisco blanch loads to talk about, but first on oil, is this being driven by demand factors and inflation or the iran negotiations and the situation unfolding there? >> frankly our view is that it's the short run, because i think we'll have more supplies from iran i think prices will eventually rise quite a bit, and the fact

that opecs is likely to hold back supply over the next 18 months in our view. >> even if other commodities do roll over, which we have seen already in the price of lumber, gold, i think it was down 8% or more, that inflation might cool off? >> well, oil is so different we are coming out from a derecession last year. it's starting to recover in the u.s. we have seen passengers traffic think airports going from 300,000 passengers a day to now over 2 million, so trying to recover pre-covid levels, same for -- but the rest of the world is going behind europe is coming up with the vaccination campaign starting to kick in, getting to the 70% rate

of vaccinated people you need to get to limit the pandemic. i think the rest of the world is behind i think emerging markets will come out in 12 months, so probably by sometime next year the vaccination campaigns will gather pace, and so we are still nowhere near the levels of demand that we saw pre-pandemic in out >> so that's fund, what else you know, what is your the over potential reasons that you see us getting to $100 >> there's three key factors so it's all coming back. the second reason is work from home, which in our view will be work from car. people are sitting at home one or two days a week, will use that time to run errands, and then beyond the work from car

sit ways there will by avoidance of mass transit. mass transit is lagging the recovery, as people are reluctant to jump into buses and subways and will use their car when it's available. and we think there's big issues on the supply side investment took a big hit. we think it will be even worse on a combination of government policy to prevent climate change, judicial decisions like in amsterdam against major corporation to say reduce their current emissions, and number three, just investment pressure, as we saw, or it is simply financials as we've seen with some shell players, we think cap

ex will be under a lot of pressure we think that the make you get a little higher. opegs is recover from the abyss of last year >> i can identify more traffic in the new york areas as a result of people not taking mass transit, but i want to go back to studies showed that people will be remote working from their cars they don't want to go to the office, but they'll be zooming from their car are you really sure that's going to actually happen >> i'm not say zooming from the car. what i'm saying is a lot of people that take one day to work remotely will use that day to run errands. when you go to the office, you drive in the morning, drive back home, and that's about all the driving you do if you are working remotely for one or two days a week, you're quite likely to use that day to

run your conference calls, and i'm sure that many users sympathize with using that you are cars as offices this past year obviously not in singapore or hong kong where there's no space for cars, but everywhere else i think people will be driving around more. >> nots what i necessarily would have expected from a work at-home economy. francisco, thank you we appreciate it. >> thank you. straight ahead, crypto gets crushed day, american airlines cans also hundreds of flights, and a lot more on this rally that's when we take you inside the market zone.

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day in more than three months. now turning positive for the month of june, mike, you have treasury yields a bit firmer, the declare a big weaker, and that's what the markets want. >> kind of undoing friday. thursday the s&p gog to 4321 we're at 4219 now, so the s&p has more or less taken back what seemed like an exaggerated move, an off-balance market, and yes, the treasury yields at the long end firmed up. really the takeaway seems to be now terribly much has changed about the outlook, about the bias of fed policy relatively to what the markets did last week, even if we're still looking at some offsets, looking at decelerating growth and the fact we have seen peak acceleration, but the fascinating thing is inflation expectations have come

down in the last couple weeks. it's almost like whatever the fed was going to be worried about would now be taken care of in part by the market. >> lindsey, what is your expectation? >> last week was investors looking for a catalyst to take a market down that was a little overvalued, just nervousness entering in the summer months. i think they used and the fed minutes, and today you're seeing a reversal of that the market did get pretty oversold we saw the relative strength index get to about 30 on friday. that happened also in march and in maybe after the market declined about 4%, and even time, you saw the market rebound quite a bit after that

granted, the market is only down about -- going into friday, but this does seem like a reason for investors. they're using it to get back into the market. all right. thanks, lindsey. cryptos, well, are getting crushed today. kate rooney has those details. >> reporter: china is getting even tougher on er on ether is lower today as well. we have the people's bank of china today saying it urge d crackdown on tracking, and another region in china felony as the sichuan province, and we've seen restrictions in other areas.

more than 90% of that country's mining capacity is now shut down beijing's crackdown has been pegged to worries over the amount of energy it takes to create new bitcoin and its carbon footprint, but sichuan is known for hydropower, so some are questions if this is more about economy 'tis and bitcoin is a threat to the yuan. microstrategy now holds about $3 billion in crypto, also coinbase is lower today as well. guys, back to you. >> thanks, kate. interesting, sara, when you typically stop mining for something, the price goes up, not down. >> but it's just a reminder of the regulatory pressure, with such a big market, with bitcoin work without china i guess that's what you wonder if they're going to continue to crack down enthusiasts would say, yes, there's still tons of demand and

look at what's happening with el salvador and money transfer. >> unlike a physical commodity, there's going to be a certain number of bitcoin ultimately that will be released at a certain preset schedule. there had be enough miners in the world, at a price, to bring them into existence. that's not really the concern. i think the intensity of usage has to go down, but i think you can play it both ways. people would say, china wants this dead, and it's still at $32,000 plus, so it's an intimidating looking shot if you're long, because it has a lot of potential selling to happen, but it's doing its own thing in this range for weeks. so what do you do with a stock like coinbase? >> well, i think the good thing

about coinbase is it's u.s. based. they're playing by the rules obviously the regulations and all the rules are still being ironed out in fact we have our fed and orlando central banks looking at other way to say use digit at currency from a central bank perspective. it's a reminder -- this action today is a reminder that these things are in its infancy. the regulatory environment hasn't quite yet been figured out and also the operational aspect of some of these digital coins, you know, the question is raised there it needs to be better understood, i believe, because like mike said, if you've got some mine serious leaving the system, that should help support the price, not bring it down i any there's a lot we need to understand as a society about digital currency before it

becomes mainstream let's talk airlines. american airlines cancelling hundreds of flights. phil lebeau is here to explain why. >> we're seeing american airlines got a little overextended in terms of adding back flights in june they had to cancel more than 300 flights. that's about 4% to 6%, that's due to staffing shortages, as well as weather, as well as maintenance. as a result they said, you know what we're going to drawback our july schedule take a look at this. american has far more aggressive than its other competitors they're now at about 18.9 million seats, which will increase in july if you look at shares of american, the cutbacks in july, about 1% of its schedule, which comes out to anywhere between 50 and 75 flights per day

it's not a huge impact, but this is what we expected with the reopening. it will be lumpy and uneven at times. that's what we saw with american this weekend. >> it sounds like, phil, that it's a good problem, that it speaks to how much demand is and how hard it is to flip on the light switch and get capacity back online. >> remember, they still have training for some of the furloughed pilots. they're adding back staffing this was the unevenness that people had in the system nobody expected it would be a smooth transition to a lot more people flying this summer. >> where are we on expectations right now? what are the best guesses in terms of where traffic will return to versus normal, i guess, phil? >> right now we're down anywhere between 20% and 30%, depending on the day of the week i think sunday was down 21%. the expectations is at least

domestically by august, by september, you're expecting it to be down 10% to 20% overall. really what we're waiting on is the international traffic. that will be keeping the airlines from getting back to 2019 levels altogether. >> business travel, too? or that's coming back? >> it will come back eventually. you know what's happening in europe it will take a while. >> i do. we debate that one a lot, as you well know, on "squawk on the street." >> we debate that here a "closing bell." >> i don't know where you stand on it. >> i haven't taken a business trip for going out and reporting, but weather hearing -- i had a big ceo conference at the nyu hospitality center, and ceos are booking conferences for the fall nowhere near the levels, but of course they push back against the idea it would never come back in the same numbers.

>> i don't know that it will ever equal 2019. zoom is going to win for some. radio shows, maybe. >> certain types of sales, that's where you -- it's a p & l thing, you probably will make the trip, not a road show that's a one to many time of environment. moving on here, your prime day purchases could be facing shipping and supply chain issues frank holland has the details for us also adjusting, their on-time deliveredy numbers reflecting that shift industrial experts say they expect prime day to kickstart the holiday peak that usually begins on black friday wreak

trucking demand has increased 160% year to day over 2020, while available trucks have fallen by 28%. really another sign of the tightening summer chain. back over to you >> thank, frank. why isn't that inflationary? >> it definitely is. >> that's transitory we're sure that's transitory >> it's how much it moves the needle on of measures. >> they say it's a bottleneck, temporary issue. >> in general it look like a sort of painful transition, and we're not sure how much is really able to be deployed in terms of labor and everything else. >> there's a lot of over-order if you are a vendor and you want some inventory, you may be ordering more, because you're not getting enough i don't know. >> i think that's why people have explained the ism index over 60 multiple times, that's

what that was in large park. >> we're getting up to the two-minute mark. le rayly is going strong we're down near session highs what are you watches >> it's also strong in the service area it seems ago if people felt when the market opened green, we got soothing fed-speak, and we have about three quarters or more of all volume to the up side right now on the new york stock exchange so that pretty much endorses -- we talked about growth versus value. we've had phases over the last year when it seems as if growth was the only game in town and vice versa what's fascinating, everything depends on the time period you frame it in, bud pretty much neck and neck. as a matter of fact this last spurt in growth has taken it to the highs, growth peaked on a

relative basis, i don't think many people just do exclusive one or the other anyway. maybe it was flashing yellow on friday, sometimes got up to 20, and sometimes that's a warning sign, but now it's down in the 17.8 range probably given how calm the market has near the highs probably a downside buy. after all, weather in the summer. >> starting today. longest daylight, i guess. >> of course, if you want to be a pessimist, days are getting shorter. one of, what, 35, 40 seconds left here it is we're close to the closing bell. surging here towards the end

also take a look at exxon mobil shares the in has been so strong. [ bell ringing ] "closing bell" on this monday afternoon, the 21st day of summer. >> there's the dow close, highest since the month of march. a very strong day here aim sara eisen here with david faber, who's in for wilfred frost. take a look at how we finished up session highs of about 618 every dow stock closed in the green. united healthcare, boeing also near the top

best day for the s&p since the month of may, may 14th, it looks like every sector closing higher industrials, materials very strong technology very much getting a big boost today. same with the semiconductors, the past tied to the price of bitcoin, but all higher, facebook as well, the russell 2000 index, up more than 2% on the day, taking a yearly gain so far to more than 15% ahead on the show we'll discussing the by rally, and lingering concerns with rick reider lindsey bell is with us,

northern trust well management katie nixon joins us today as well >> what do you do as an investor last week it was all about a pivot, and there goes value over growth, and less liquidity, and then boom, a huge rally and reversal today. >> it shows you extrapolating from a few days' activity everyone was like, no, no, value trade is over. we did a round trip, down almost exactly as much at, maybe not that much about the fundamental inputs has change d in other words, the market had some concern coming into today. and you only had one third of

s&p stocks that were above their 50-day average primed for a bowen does it mean we're headed back toward a full recovery or we have to shop around a bit more? fully invested you can't really argue much about that. katy, give me your take on today's action >> well, i would say, again, it is a cautionary tale of trying to pull too much information out of the market right now. we talk about the data being noisy, as investors are sort of straddling the reflation trade for sort of the secular growth stories. for us we would continue to give advice that we've been giving for months in and out.

you really want to own both value and some of these strong growth stories you're going to have churn like this, and you're always be on the right seed if you have that kind of diversification. we still love the tech stocks. the bloom has come off the rose for some of the big techs, as you know, but we still see strong value there we see that well into next year. that's based on just the eco

economic, we sort of side with the fed on this, to be honest. we think the inflationary pressures will be transitory in one area we see, and it's not the logistics side, it's not on some of the bottlenecks, but really on the commodity side we do have an overweight to equities that are geared towards the commodity complex. that's an area where we see persistently high demands and perhaps constrained supply, as we haven't seen a lot of investment in that area, and we see this renewed capital discipline from some of the companies. they're not going out and building and exploring right now. so that's one area

is that still your preference? for the last ten months, back and forth, back and forth with value most recently leading the way i you see them step into the day, so i think you need to be exposed to both sides of the eways that market pmi number we have seen some weakness when you start to see weakening there.

>> that's on the months ahead. >> something else we're watching are bank stocks, closing up more than 3%. getting crushed last week. sake that despite last week 'sell-off, saying that are the money centers right now. yeah, over 4% was the gain higher that was the best daily performance. etty strong bounce at this point. the group is still down quite a bit this money, actually fed

funds rate hikes are high enough, and the yield curve is -- and they were very popular on the way up. it seems like they kind of were valued relatively richly, compared to their own history. rate hikes would be bullish. >> what would it take between now and then >> the 530s, flattest in the decade, does it just depend on what the bonds do. >> well, i think it's certainly about the yield curve. generally interest. >> >> the beginning of last

week, the third-best performing group, and i'm blanking on the last one anyway, i think that the banks are still a good place to be, still the catalyst for them after the close. that's something to look forward to as well >> no, but still a lot about rates. katie, i'll come back to you you seem to think that rates will not move appreciably higher. >> no, we have been lower for even longer. there's probably not going to a lot of head room for the fed to

race rates too much. deceleration from here. we'll leave it there thank you both for joining us.

with the increase in chicken demand, including continental grain is -- again, this company back to you guys christina, thank you why nick thinking the market will pull back. plus blackrock's rick reider, what he thinking about inflation. we're back in just 90 seconds. the dow's best day since march

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up limb 600 points that's the best close since the what do you think of today's action now that we have more color on that, we think we have further pullback.

the countdown clock has started, then you saw with bullard pulling that slightly forward. but at the same time it's super-important to understand when the fed starts this clock do you think it hurts the

appeal of bitcoin a bit? it's the over-arching point, it's been statistic idea that and it shows last week that it's not. can you see a time when -- >> they get boring every three years. it's a bit of a stretch to call them boring, but it happens over and over again they've got super spicy in 2017, then they went to sleep for a

couple years they came back alive in 2020, '21. t there's always a chance to make a ton of monies. you don't buy them when people are talking about them >> given the fact we're in this limbo, will this, won't this, on the fed on tapering, on rates, on inflation, what do you like we still really like the space it's had a big run we like large cap and -- that's the highest cyclical energy is really the place to be, and we really like large caps over small caps the russell got way over extented, it's got to churn its way through, but for the 340789, large caps definitely have it over small caps.

>> tell my why, and why is energy such a continued focus for you, interms of at least positive performance, given that it's been the best performer this year? >> it totally has, but if you look at the long five-year chart, you'll see the stocks are nowhere near back to their pre-pandemic levels. that's probably the only sector that isn't that way. there is a lot of skepticism about whether or not that group can ever return to the earnings power of 2017, 2018, and the stocks reflect the uncertainty we think they can, the market thinking they can't. the other sector was -- >> large cap why large caps i think -- tech -- big tech is 22% of the s&p, those five names.

it's still a third russell, there's no big cap tech, obviously and very small cap tech you can't be so underexposed to technology here as we waver in between the two market narratives, one that's cyclical and one that's defensive those tech stocks have underperform and probably still have a way to say go in terms of up side. we don't want to be so sicklically exposed, and they still look overvalued. >> the energy thing is up 43%. you're like the fourth guest we've had on this show today that's favorsing energy. it was esg concerns. the biden administration is going to take us into electric vehicles, and all these new regulations popping up in california what changed >> you know, i'm not sure what -- i'm not sure what changed in the market to realize

that all those narratives are correct but the timing is wrong. those are often ten-year teams they're kind of lousy one-year themes ultimately america and the world still burns a lot of fossil fuel every day. you're talking about 25 million barrels a day in the u.s., 100 million barrels around the world every single day it's a long-term story, those are growth areas, but in a cyclical upturn, you play the cycle. the psych the says oil. >> nick, thank you. >> thank you. up next, mike santoli will look at relative yields and what they could be for the broader market. and rick reider will join us to where he sees opportunities and what is a fairly volatile market we're back after this.

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all right. i've been waiting anxiously for this part of the show when we talk about relatively yields mike >> your wait is over, david. take a look at this one. relative yields of s&p 500, as well as the ten-year treasury. great picture of the way stocks and bonds have typically in recent years moved adseriously to each other. treasury yields get compressed because of flight to safety. dividend yields did have an advantage over a period of time. it hasn't happened, and now, since this rise in treasury yields, and flattening out, it's been a closer correlation between stock prices and bond prices in other words, lower yields has correspond up more with strength

in stocks. what's clear is there isn't a yield advantage either way take a look at this. defined, this is will be the first quarter this year, this is what companies are paying out. it's pretty much at the bottom of the recent multiyear range this is probably going to go up a little bit, because buybacks will surge, but it does show you that equity shareholders have gotten a lot of the benefit already. maybe there's just not quite as much juice here. >> why is that there's a surge in demand and boom in the economy. why are we seeing higher dividends? >> i think it's the lag effect mostly you see the effect of share prices going up, so the s&p 500

being up so much last year and being up is 1% this year, you're not seeing companies act quickly yet. but the past three months, the buyback announcement are a trillion dollar annual pace, that will be close to a record f form. >> any impact at all on tax policies i don't know if that would figure in or not i don't know. >> companies have, for years, kinds of leaned on the idea that buybacks are more official, which is why they've been pivoting that direction. they tend to want to just offset the dilution >> they just want a return of capital. >> they want to own more of the

company over time, if they hold. >> maybe -- it was frowned upon, mike, certainly some of the democrats made some noise about buybacks we're still coming out of this crisis and covid still millions are unemployed. >> though i don't think necessarily the political considerations were foremost i think what really happened is we're only ten months removed from the time we thought there would be mass defaults and bleelts were in terrible, and people had to refinance their debt to make sure they had enough cash on hand. i think you had an initial wave the cancellations that have not quite come back. >> remember every day people were tapping their credit line. >> nobody knew watch coming. i think it was the rare person who could have imagined where we would be at the moment >> and the credit markets. when we come back, speaking of, blackrock's chief investment

officer, rick reider, and the impact the new timeline could have on the market plus a new study showing a vast majority of workers want them to add options to their 401(k) plans you may be surprised by what they want. details later on "closing bell." flexshares are carefully constructed.

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welcome back maybe you were out enjoying the first day of summer and you're wondering how did the market do? >> well, the russell 2000 up over 2%. the nasdaq up, but the laggard thus far to breaking news on the fed. ylan mui has the story for us. >> jay powell reiterating that inflation has increased, but remains transitory in his written testimony before the house coronavirus committee, he made no mention of when the fed might raise rates. he did repeat the fed's commitment to supporting the economy until the recovery is complete he also warned about the slowing

pace of vaccinations, pointing to new strains of the virus with the potential economic risk. tomorrow's hearing will also focus on the fed's emergency lending facilities during the pandemic powell said the fed's actions unlaunched $2 trillion for businesses, and ultimately he argued that helped businesses from close and workers from lose irtheir jobs he said the labor market and economy are strengthening, even if the pace is uneven. joining us to discuss the headlines as part of our new curb your inflation series is rick reid er. >> thanks, sara. the question and answers could be interesting, given the market had such a strong reaction to

the fed meeting, even though powell said don't pay attention to the -- and we're only talking about tapering we're not there yet. how do you read it >> first of all, the comment about what the fed did on locking the financing markets that were gummed up last year, people don't give them enough credit for that. but that was the second part, i would say. the markets last week, it was surreal what was happening thursday and friday. what the dead did, you had too much liquidity coursing through the system we're not in emergency conditions anymore we don't need $120 billion a month in quantitative easing we need to pull back the front-end liquidity, the system is overstuffed with it the fed, with generally pulling back, they're moving away from emergency market reactions on

thursday and friday with rates rallying and today we're just reversing what seemed like a very unusual and, i think, the wrong reaction at the end of last week. >> so what do you do from here you still like higher yields stronger stocks? valued trade if the whole thing goes back? >> if you're an investor and think about what you're trying to do, and where those two lines are going, the fed told you, and rates have to move higher, real rates on ten-year points that's wrong rates should be moving higher, and companies are throwing off the economy will keep growing. we think it would grow at 8%, real gdp earnings yields will be attractive relative to the top-line revenue you look at the money they spend on cap ex, on r & d, and the

consumptionability, the interest rates are unattractive, so you talk about -- the divergence in those lines, putting more -- i mean, beyond the two-year treasury, what does that do for your portfolio and be tonightistic when the markets do like they did at the end of last week like i said, was anomalous >> it's funny, we haven't talked about the possibility of more government spending. i don't know what the chances are any longer for a big infrastructure bill. how does that figure into your thinking about towards the second half of this year and early next year if we do get a big number

>> one, i think you'll get more fiscal stimulus. over ten years, that's a pretty good catalyst. that infrastructure spend suggests you're going to get this tailwind of growth that's going to come into the system. and then you take my point about what companies are spinning on cap ex, and by the way, they'll be spending on m & a as well, that keeps growth durable, plus a consumer that's in good shape. you have to underwrite risk, you try to underwrite risk you've got some, if we know where we are today, we've got some tailwinds that could be even more significant in terms of where growth can go and, quite frankly, global growth is improving in places like in europe >> the topic of our segment is curb your inflation.

do you expect high inflation numbers to continue as well? does that alter the outlook or the trade? >> so there's two things -- two parts to inflation that i think are significant. one, i do think shelter, housing prices, not enough homes available today. the inventory levels are too low, too hard. it is second is i think wages are accelerating we created a million jobs each of the last four months and we'll see good numbers the next few months those are the two places the rest i think is transitory, whether it's chip shortage, whether it's supply chain issues, whether it's inventory levels that have been drawn down across autos, homes, retail generally. so i think that is transitory. i think the fed is 100% right.

when we break down what's driving this excessive level most of those factor, except for shelter, will be transitory. people say wages goes up, and that means inflation if you look over the past ten years, technology has made the costs of goods significantly lower. the road we are going down today with artificial intelligence, ev, healthcare technology is on the precipice, i don't think you'll see that significant amount of inflation. that's not the case today. >> and not the psychology argument also? that the fear of future inflation actually causes it >> i don't buy that where is that fear of inflation you get this incredible substitution effect today that

people can buy goods in different ways there's so many sources of which you can deliver things through mobile phone, et cetera. i don't think that's right listen, in shelter, you know, houses, i do see that di234578ic at play, but, no, i don't see that at all in terms of risk today. >> rick, always a pleasure to listen to you. >> thank you, sir. >> thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me on i appreciate it. and the ongoing labor short an, is that creating strong deplanned for her company's deplanned for her company's services and we can monitor to see that we're on track. like schwab intelligent income. schwab! introducing schwab intelligent income. a simple, modern way to pay ? yourself from your portfolio. oh, that's cool...

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welcome back here's shepard smith >> here's what's happening severe weather across the country. wildfires in the west. in the southeast, 14 deaths and heavy damage from tropical storm claudette. these picture from suburban chicago. local officials say a tornado did this, but the national weather service hasn't yet confirmed. five people injured, one critically, dozens of homes damaged. all nine justices agree ncaa

broke antitrust laws by blocking small payments, money for educational purposes that challenge to the association monopoly could pave the way for a future ruling on the federal level, one that would allow college athletes to be paid for the names of their likenesses several states already moving in that direction as vaccination rates slow, one group is going door to door in philadelphia, trying to convince people to get a shot there we went with them to see firsthand how they're doing. their story tonight on the news right after jim cramer on cnbc. thank you, mr. smith. shares of upward gaining more than 40% amid this year we're going to talk with that painany's ceo, and whether it's imctg her business that's next. best!

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anecdotally? there's a shortage of people willing to take full-time work >> thanks for having me, david companies over the last year have figured out and gotten over their fear of engaging talent and that's chris cal as they're leverages forming like upwork to solve the age-old problems they're realizing that a freelance economy is going to find the skilled workers they absolutely do need right now and need going forward. >> that's what i was wondering, hay den, your stock took offense during 2020, when freelancer needed to find work, but there was always a question of what would happen when the economy

reopens and all these companies have started hiring. what do you see for demand >> we see the demand will continue to be elevated. freelancing was a trend already picking up before the pandemic, certainly accelerated over the last year, but the problem that were being solved by companies turning to freelancers are not pandemic-specific. they need the agility of a flexible workforce, and access to skills they could not find in their region and freelancers are looking for more flexibility that was true going into the pandemic last year more than 20 million americans entered the freelance force, and 60% said there was no amount of money to be paid to go back into traditional employment, because this model was working so well. this is serving their needs. they're saying to us, we want to make these changes permanent

7% of companies that used freelancers have said this change will be permanent >> so interesting. no amount of money, really that seems a little hard to believe, by i would assume, as you say, you believe your audience or group of potential recruits is going to continue to be very large, i guess >> absolutely, david we have seen four quarters of extremely elevated freelance signups and engagement on our platform that's not just due to the pandemic we already have been a business where we didn't have to market to talent. it's been driven truly by word of mouth that is because the benefits have been appealing to a generation of workers that want more control and autonomy. more than half of gen-z today is already freelancing, so the

smartest companies are realizing they need a strategy and a set of tools to really work with freelancers and bring them into the workforce. these are the workers of the future, and frankly the agility that workers give them are hugely beneficial for how they want to operate. >> is the demand there on the other side are companies hiring freelancers at the same rate >> companies have woken up to the fact that these workers, number one, have the skills they need these ceos are saying, look, where do i go to get the talent that can work for neuroorganization. certainly even before the pandemic, the skills gap was a top of mind problem for every company in the landscape as companies have gone through the pandemic, learned how to work remotely, now they're aware of the fact that they can tap

into remote freelancers to tap into these people all over the world. they're not limited to the folks in their own backyard. that's a huge win for companies. this is a moment where they say how do i make these gains a permanent way to tap into freelancer, give me the give me the ability to flex my teams up and down and how to make it a permanent part of my workforce going forward. >> very interesting trend, hayden, thank you. when we come back, new survey data shedding light on what workers want their employers to provide in their 401(k) anpls and the request may surprise you. we will explain next gotta take. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya.

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welcome back today's retirees are the first generation to retire with 401ks instead of pensions and many are trying to figure out how to make the nest eggs last the rest of their lives. sharon joins us with more than one tool that can help them do that, sharon, annuities. >> that is right retirement security is a top concern of many workers and a new blackrock survey finds 89%

of 401(k) plan participants want to own a product that guarantees monthly income for life. >> workers start to get closer to retirement and heightened also with the pandemic, they are worried about outliving their savings and would like to see some form of guaranteed savings provided by their employer in their 401(k) >> that is where annuities come in, a contract between you and an insurer you make an investment now for guaranteed monthly income in the future and can buy it on your own and the secure act of 2019 made it easier for 401(k) to offer annuities as an option, ideally for those close to retirement >> that is when you want to say hey, listen. i want to start thinking about all of this accumulation i have done through the decades of working. how do i begin to think about turning what i have saved and accumulated into paychecks after

i retire >> a 65-year-old man who buys an immediate annuity for $100,000 could be paid $501 for the rest of their life. now, online calculators like the one i used can help you to estimate your annuity income financial advisor lee baker points out the income payment on an annuity inside a 401(k) plan is the same for both sexes a woman might get a higher monthly income from an annuity in a 401(k) than they would buying it on their own back to you. >> thank you, sharon well, it has been a busy day on wall street. the dow finishes up nearly up at wpoints whe will be watching in tomorrow's session that's next. i became a sofi member because i needed to consolidate my credit card debt.

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fed chair jay powell who is testifying he just gave a news conference we know what he thinks any chance to clarify the more hawkish rhetoric or just the market reaction with financial conditions tightening. >> you would think he would try to shift the emphasis on the patient stance that the fed has, the fact that nothing happens before their measure of full employment is close if not there. and even the tapering conversation is a notional thing down the road. i would expect that is what we will hear. i wonder if today's rally is everybody recognizing that would be the dynamic the pendulum would swing back towards a lot of fed speak that will be a little bit less or even perceived to be hawkish >> final thought about the market >> i want to get corporate news, kind of more of my thing it is kind of quiet on that front. market, pretty busy.

corporates, not so much. >> they are gliding into the end of the quarter we will see. >> they are. >> with a strong outlook >> earnings up 60% this quarter. >> i can't wait for you to make calls. you have to go to do that. that is it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq market site this is fast money. i am courtney regan following in for melissa lee. guy, tim, karen and jeff mills tonight on fast, amazon primed the company kicking offs it seventh annual prime day but will the company and other retailers deliver for investors and bitcoin goes bust, prices heading towards january lows as a crackdown in china hurts the market an