tv Power Lunch CNBC June 22, 2021 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
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uipath. reboot work. good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. good to have you along with us we are waiting to hear today, this hour, from fed chair jay powell he will testify at a congressional hearing about pandemic response, but you know there will be questions about inflation. we will take you there live for
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the q&a portion of his remarks. >> in the meantime we're talking to another one of the morningstar's award winners. the woman behind the firm will join us. and shares of boot barn have been crushing it this year, up 80%, could the company fall victim to some of the threats in the economy, including supply chain disruptions, labor shortages. we'll talk to the ceo as "power lunch" starts right now. but first let's get a check of the markets follow yesterday's big gains. the nasdaq is the best of the bunch, hitting a record intraday high today interestingly, consumer discretionary the best performer today, but also nike and home depot have been leading the dow. >> bitcoin dipped below 30,000
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earlier. a bit higher on the day. it's been down 20% in a week, down 50% from the april high. >> a pretty rapid collapse as we wail to hear from fed chair powell, a yield on the ten-year note, sitting beloaned 1.5%, and let's bring in rick santelli >> well, kelly, it's a fascinating day. we just brought out the two-year note, it was average, nothing spectacular, but it might be considered spectacular, considering how many higher two-year note yields have gotten as you look at a two-day of twos, clearly there's a slip and some subtle resteepening of the curve, but very subtle, if you look at the two-day of tens, you can clearly see at the 147 level we are losing some steam but nothing sums up the nothing of the fed and jay powell getting ready for q&a better
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than the dollar index. know that the dollar index has popped over the last couple weeks. what you see now is we are drifting under yesterday's session low. that's an important aspect whether it's the rate association with the dollar index or just the notion that the fed was looking to maybe normalize, though it certainly seems to be pushing that back away and the equities seem to be pushing back, take a close look at the nasdaq. ultimately how jay powell responds to q&a is going to be pretty simple. i think the walkback is the way to go and i think new york fed's williams has summed it up best rate left in the future not to mention quaint at a timive easing. >> stocks continue to hold steady as wall street waits to hear what fed chair powell has to say when he testifies today on pandemic emergency lending. our next guest expects the fed
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to continue to emphasize the need for accommodation while preparing the market for asset purchases later this year. russ costrich is with blackrock. always good to have you with us. let's talk first about inflation and what you are seeing, what you expect to see for the rest of this year, and what you expect chair powell to say about it >> thanks, tyler what does transitory mean? transitory to our thinking is not that we'll have one or two bad months and then inflation will normalize it's no longer just about the base effects it's about supply constraints in numerous markets, whether you're talking about semiconductors, furnish, we have seen it all in
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our lives. it's about wage inflation in sections of the market again, a lot of this is a function of a very unusual reopening, a function of the fact that we came into this recession in much better shape than any other recession, but all that does mean that the elevated inflation we are seeing is going to last for a bit longer and we'll have to get used to the volatility around that uncertainty. >> so how high does it go, and how long does it stay there? >> we've already seen cpi year over year move to 5% core inflation is the highest since 1992 really the question i think is how quickly does it start to resolve itself again, to the extent we're going to see some stickiness in wages in the near term as companies try to fulfill that record number of open jobs, supply chains, whether we're talking about semiconductors, commodities, they take time to ramp up, so it probably will be
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with us through the remainder of the year and through 2022. that means it will take that long to see inflation normalize relative to what we've been accustomed to. >> but you don't expect the fed to move aggressively to raise interest rates in response to this, nor do you think they may start to pull back on the quaint at a timive response there what does this imply for equities and what you're doing with your portfolio? what are you lightening up on in anything >> one of the first things i would say is, contrary to the market narrative back in march or february, when the ten-year was skyrocketing, we do think rates will back up from here we think that real rates normalize. however, we don't think the ten-year is melting back to 2.5% anytime soon what does that mean for stocks some of the financials is likely to come out.
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we've been lighting it up a bit on the financial stocks. instead we've been looking for a couple things. the consumer is in the best shape we have seen in decades. there's a lot of pent-up savings. that's likely to get spend we're very overweight consumer discretionary. from a style perspective, there's a lot of debate. tile her, as you know, any given day you see the enormous outperformance we're aiming down the middle of the fairway, aiming for quality and growth names, growth at a reasonable prize we think that the do best, and you'll have to navigate they very violent shifts in style rotation. >> the fund is called global allocation give us a sense of what the global allocation s. how much of the fun is overseas, and where are you looking now to put discretionary money to work? >> sure. so our benchmark on the equity side is 40% overseas
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we're actually overweight a lot of those markets the largest one is europe ex the you uk a lot of those companies are domiciled in europe at a reasonable price there are names in china we like what's happening in china is really fascinating the u.s. is still the biggest home for quality companies defined by profitability, earnings consistency second is china, so we like a lot of the tech names, some of the communication names. that's another place we're overweight. >> russ, thank you so much for your time today. we appreciate your insights. as always, good to see you >> thanks. now to a reopening stock doing well despite being caught right in the middle of issues. from inflation to stimulus to supply-chain concerns, shares of boot barn, which sells western wear including jeans, shirts, hats, belts and, yes, boots.
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those shares are up about 80%. citi just upgraded the stock to a buy. jim conroy is the president and ceo of boot barn, has been for i believe about a decade great to have you with us. welcome. >> i really appreciate it. >> on this analyst note, festivals, state fares, rodeo season, are we starting to pick up and see that driving sales? >> well, yes, but i would say our business started to really strengthen even in advance of that so our most recent earnings call we called out growth over two years ago, up 60% in total sales. that's really prior to all the country music artists starting to tour again and events and rodeos beginning to emerge all that tail wind, to be honest, is still in front of
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you. >> i know you're selling some braened that are more exposed to work wear, or is it fashion water? and are we talking about particular parts in the country? or to the point that was made last week, josh lipton's taste in footwear, are they broadly appealing across all parts of the country? >> we have very broad-based growth, almost across every geography. virtually every part of the merchandise, hierarchy, over the last few quarters, we have gone from extremely functional selling to much more a combination of functional and discretionary. we have seen a nice uptick in men's and ladies' denim, men's and ladies' western boots, kind of joining the growth we have seen in the last year-plus >> you have in 276 stores, in 36 states, obviously a big company. is one region coming back
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quicker than another >> not really. we have three regions that we have split our stores into they have all been improving the southern region, which includes texas has had some nice sequential improvement, but frankly, one part of the one that's been growing the most for several quarters in a row now is the west, led by our california business >> that's where you're head quartered, so explain what you're seeing in california, which is a state a lot of people thought might have suffered because they were late in reopening, the high cost of living, the exodus >> our california business started to emerge early on we started to play pretty aggressive offense with inventory and store staffing in those store, and we proved to our cusses that we were there as an essential retailer when covid
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was starting to emerge most of our products we sell, and you're speaking specifically to california, most of the products we sell, whether we classify them as western or work, they have a functional purpose. so when customers were looking to continue to make a living in all parts of the country, certainly in california,they knew they could rely on boot barn to find the products they needed to continue to go to work >> interesting final question, jim, what's going on with supply, both in terms of getting product you need on the shelves, and also in workers to help you out? >> we're battling many of the same challenges that other retailers are facing into. one of the key tenets with boot barn is we tend to run with a fairly high level of inventory in our stores. we want to be in stock for the
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size our customers want. when the pandemicb gan and start to do impact the supply chain, we had a bit of a safety net of merchandise already in stock we've worked like crazy over the last year-plus, to make sure our supply chain gets back up and running. we're pretty close to full speed now. i would say a similar story on the labor side we're out hiring in virtually all of our location, to continue to keep up with demand, but given the strength of the brand, we've been able to attract talent, and continue to staff new stores. extra points if you carry a women's size 11 in stores. not everybody does >> hopefully we make that happen thank you very much. >> nothing more comfortable. >> but if they're too small and pointy -- >> you have to get them to fit right. you look more armani than western wear i love that. up next, the head of dodge
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welcome back there's fed chair powell on capitol hill, but he's released his preplanned testimony we'll pick up the q&a session in a moment morningstar naming dodge and cox as its 2021 xwlemp hear stewardship winner in its annual awards for investing excellent the fund manages more than -- and was selected on a strong track record joining us now is dodge & cox's ceo. congratulations. it seems like you win one of these awards every single year what are you doing right >> well, thank you first, i'll just say this award is meaningful to us.
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it's aligned with our values system in place throughout our 90 years what we do is try to put investors interests across decision making as well as how we run or firm i point to the focus of the firm on investing only. we try to -- try to pit more money in our pockets >> one of things are stand out, seven or eight total mutual funds? >> search.
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>> we don't do it, because we want to believe deeply in the investment strategies we offered to clients that they can add value to our clients over the long rung we don't tend to follow the trends, but try to have durable strategies that investors can rely on. >> does it bother you -- you basically are value oriented you look for things that are not fad-ish. we're not going to find a lot of gamestop chasing in your group, i wouldn't say, but does it bother you when your funds lack a benchmark, becausewhere
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companies are trading as -- in those environments we tend to lean in. >> as you sit back and observe what's going on in the markets this year, particularly with the meme stocks and the chasing of performance, what do you say this is a craze, thinks a mania, or what? how do you react >> we try to look through the noise, that's created by short-term changes and keep an eye on the long term we're making sure we're still
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confident on the portfolio >> you all have long been known for low expense ratios, but the industry wasn't known so much for lowers experience ratios, but lately expenses have come down, which must mean for the industry as a whole, it's harder to make money and profit how do you make profit with fees that are below 50 basis points, in some cases below 20 >> we've always tried to keep a simple operating structure we own ourselves, we're independent. we can weather the ups and downs. we try to keep a lean team and stay singularly focused on one over-arching philosophy. we invest in people, in the technology that's needed i think that simple structure and independent ownership has
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allowed us to weather the competitive dynamics of our industry very well >> i would just say in conclusion for those investors who have looked at the easy money, even in some big tech and the likes, what would your argument be for why you're a better store value, really we have high confidence in the investments we are making we think there's still a valuation discounts in the market relative to growth stocks so we think there's still tremendous opportunity in value-oriented invests. >> with your reputation being what it is, and this reputation for stewardship, what do you think of the drive towards esg investing, and are you tempted to open a fund with that as a core principle
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>> at dodge & cox, the esg factors have been important to us in determining the long-term investment, so we apply an integrated material approach, so it's deeply embedded in all of our strategies we have not been tempted to offer an esg-only strategy we think there's an evolution in the industry, there's inconsistencies across how people are views esg factors so we feel the best way to incorporate esg is actively investing in companies that is also focused in improving. >> i hope you won't mind when i ask you this the mutual fund business has been male dominated. how many other women are running fund groups, as you are right now?
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>> i don't know the number i think at dodge & cox we've always had women in leadership i think it's a testament to how we invest money with a team-oriented approach, and our ability to attract and retain talent over time. >> i know franklin templeton has a female ceo as well congratulations on the award, dana nice to see more women rising in your industrial. thanks for your time today. >> thank you so much. jay powell is facing lawmakers on capitol hill. the question and answer portion gets underway when "power lunch" returns. [sfx]: happy screaming
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pain? yeah. here. aspercreme with max-strength* lidocaine. works fast and lasts. keep it. you're gonna need it. kick pain in the aspercreme welcome back i'm rahel solomon. here is your cnbc news update. rodrigo duterte has threatened to arrest anyone citizen who refuses to get vaccinated. he added he would order village leaders to compile a list of defiant residents.
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at&t's call for tech system is automatic for wireless systems at&t says evidence, if gathered, resulted in at least seven federal enforcement acts again phone cammers last year. a florida woman got quite a surprise when he tried to withdraw $20 from an atme she was shocked to see $999,985,855.94 in her account she was unable to achieve her $20. she did read out to chase about the mistake, but she says she's afraid to take out the money, because one, she might have to repay it, but she wouldn't do it anyway. >> i would say just not even reach out, you sit there quiet think. >> the cat is out of the bag right now. >> she's told rahel.
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>> as soon as i heard woman in florida going to a bank, i thought it would be about an alligator. the dow is drifting higher, just about a tenth of a percent the nasdaq is up about half a person some power movers, first up is sanderson farms. the poultry producer exploring a possible sale next stifel upgrading crowdstrike, the firm says the company could gain more customers. and sally beauty is the belle of the ball, getting upgrades from crown and oppenheimer with cohen. for more on sally beauty, go to
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cnbc.com/pro and we are waiting for fed chair powell to begin his q&a portion. in the meantime let's bring in rick santelli. there are key levels people are watching in the dollar. >> that's yesterday's low, and i find that very important if you recall, the bill really, really was very profound, giving us an early sentinel whether it was the flattening of the yield curves, or a big drop or the softness that went on. to see this reverse a bit probably will tell us t. jay powell was going to do more moonw moonwalking. >> rick, meantime we're watching the ten-year yield and all the
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expectations around whether the hawk-ish dots are or are not to be believed. mary daly sounded a bit hawkish to me. >> mary daly's comments were much more in line with lull lard's comments. not necessarily an outcome base, and that's what jay powell has told us many times, but her comments are very important it wasn't necessarily about quantitative easing, as much as about tightening in general. i'll tell you what, most of the traders i talked to, forgot all of the politician, all of that they see a certain amount of or
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poutser. they could fight the current on the economy, but in the end, the move we dissed is the most these most likely agreed with. >> let's go to jay powell. thanks, rick. >> -- return to full employment. you have also observed, the economic downturn that has not fallen equally on all americans. we have observed, i know the fed has extensive data, that is looking at steps that can be taken to address economic disparities. my question is, why do you believe the economic equity is important for the strength of our economy as a whole, and necessary to successfully fulfill the fed's core man dade
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of surprise, stability and maximum employment >> thank you, mr. chairman so disparity in the economic outcomes have been a persistent and growing feature of our economic for several decades it does take to make significant pros on this what we can do to focus principally on the employment man dade, and to assure we achieve maximum employment, which we now define as a brought and inclusive goal, mean we will not just look at the headline numbers for unemployment, but all kinds of measures, including unemployment and employment, for ethnic groups and gender groups, things like that we will also
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entered a new framework, respond to full employment we will not race interest rates, but we fear the possible onset, instead we will way for actual i mean, i think the point is that there's a growing realization that we need to -- real incomes at the lower incomes have tag nated related to those at the top. mobility has declined in the united states and now lags that of most other advanced economies. they things hold us back as an economy and a country, and i do think these are important issues that relate to the overall performance of the economy and therefore are in scope for us to
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analyze and call out thank you for that it's an effective and fish and equitable. i appreciate that the phet under your leadership recognizes the importance of all at least of these attributes i'm not a social scientist by any means, but i am well aware that in past recoveries, going all the way back to the 1930s, to see this phenomenon, we saw it taking place in 2009 the recovery was slow, because i feel we did too little
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and i appreciate the fact that you are recognizing that in the effort to build america back under this rescue plan, all these things that are necessary to make sure that all elements in our society come back not just where we were, but hopefully beyond i thank you for the way you have handled this i look forward to continues to work with you on that with that, i'll yield to the ranking member >> thank you, mr. chairman >> if we can go back to the pandemic and look at where the economy was were we experiencing a record pandemic?
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>> longest in our history. >> so the longest overall unemployment >> in 50 years i know we've had some that say it didn't try to impact all groups i've surely seen other numbers but we saw record startups, hispanic unemployment, all-time records. is that what you saw as well we saw an all-time record product since we started tracking it and very low for hispanics as well. in fact, right before the bill
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was signed into law, we saw major companies, at&t started, and then there would be more announcements of increased wages and bonuses for their employees did you see that same thing? >> we don't comments on the effects of particular bills, as you can imagine, of any kind obviously there's enough of those as people would announce they were do it, because particularly america had become competitive again. we had 21% rate when the world average was 23%, and then we saw all of those great benefits. we also saw record-high markets, didn't we? >> we did, i guess >> so when we saw the government ordered lockdowns, whether it's businesses, schools, didn't that ultimately hurt this record-setting economy
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>> you know, i don't know that i can say that i think the -- of course, the economy was very hard-hit by the pandemic, and it's a sign to others to decide how we should have reacted it's not something the fed has expertise in or the ability to judge. >> would you say the lockdowns were caused by a reaction to covid-19 becoming a global pandemic >> yes. >> did covid-19 come from china? >> i really don't know. >> hopefully this committee will have that hearing on the origin of covid we wovn't have to wonder there's a lot of data out there that it started not only in china and the wuhan lab. whether it's intentional or accidental, no one should have doubt about when we could be having those hearings. but you can see that satetraigh line from the pandemic hitting from this virus that came from china and the shutdown that had
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a devastating impact not only on lives, over 600,000, but also on this economic crisis we're dealing with now, i want to turn to the inflation crisis we're seeing. we've seen a dramaticing in in the cost of many household items. milk up is 5%, gas up 56%, used cars up 30%. we're seeing a shortage of products, harder for people to get products, harder to get workers. we're seeing, as a result of that, about a 5% inflation rate recently so i would ask you, chairman powell, is 5% inflation acceptable to new. >> no, certainly not so clearly we want to address this crisis.
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yet the economy only added back 500,000 jobs in may. wife seen a big factor in paying 40% of the people that was a policy decision made here in washington ultimately as we've had this labor shortage, as it's starting to get worse, especially on the inflation side, chairman powell, will the economy every reach a full pre-pandemic level if this labor shortage continues >> well, if it continues i strong ly -- well over the ret of this year >> i think that will follow. half the states in the country
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have decided to end that -- and unfortunately some states want to continue paying people not to work that's causing inflation in others areas hopefully we can confront it and address it i wish you well, but hopefully we as policymakers get that right. with that, mr. chairman, i yield back >> there is no minimum wage right now, mr. chairman. they're being giving bonuses. >> i don't think the minimum wage people got bonuses, or did they >> i have seen wages in almost every state go up well above minimum wage. >> almost every state. in south carolina -- i'm sure they called louisiana. >> i know my restaurants in the new orleans area cannot find workers, and they're working and paying more than they were in
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pre-pandemic new orleans has the befoods in the world. i'm sure south carolina is not far behind they would like to see the workers back, too, i'm sure. ms. maloney? >> thank you, mr. chairman >> thank you, good to see you again, chairman powell i want to start by asking about the fed's monetary policy and inflation in particular. as you stated last week, much of the recent rise in inflation had actually been expect ed, it woud only be temporary. that shouldn't cause the fed to raise interest rates too soon. prices fell incredibly low. now a year later, the yea
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year-over-year looks v officially high, but this is something everyone saw coming. how much of the recent rise in inflation don't attribute to artificially low prices from early in the pandemic and a genuine rebound in economic activity >> well, a pretty substantial part, or perhaps all of the overshoot in inflation comes from category directly affected by the openings economy. >> such asused cars in particular they're a perfect storm of very strong demand a weak supply. we see airport tickets, hotel prices, other things those are
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things we would look to as they situations resolve themselves. i would say these effects have been but the incoming data are very much consistent with the view that these are -- these are factors that will wane over time, and inflation will then move down toward our goals, and we'll be monitoring that carefully. of course we're prepared to use our tools as appropriate to guide inflation to 2%. >> thank you let me follow up on that we typically measure using a basket of goods and services representing what people usually purchase, but the pandemic
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completely scrambled what everyone was spending money on people weren't traveling or going out to restaurant, so spending stooped entirely, while spending of groceries surged dramatically -- that we know don't actually represent what people are spenting money on. do you have any questions with relies on traditional inflation standards, which we know are unreliable right now in setting monetary policy? >> i think the overall point is that the data we are looking at any labor market and for inflation and for growth, it's in such an unusual setting, we have to be very um able about our ability to really try to draw a signal out of it. it may takes some patients to see what really is happening specifically on inflation, you're really talking about
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consumer price inflation, the cpi. we actually use the pce, personal consumption expenditure inflation. the basket is actually updated on a monthly basis for pce that's one of the its more attractive features. i would say there's also -- even it seems generally approved questioned access. fed officials have an knowledged that the mainstream mike mo productive with different it excluded many cities and
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counties deeply affected by the pandemic what do you believe are the most important adjustments the fed could make to make it more effective in future crises it helped a lot of businesses. so if i could take away a lesson there, it's very different to reach small businesses across america. i would look to the ppp program, and things like that they were were statutorily unforgivable, so i would look in that direction going forward in terms of liquidity facility, i think that the overall assessment of that is it was a resounding success the test is not how many loans
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we made, but how much lending took place the municipal markets were collapsing, the people who put their money in funds were taking their money out. we announced the facility. all of that turned around, and by -- through much of last year municipalities and states had great access to markets, record amounts of borrowing took place at loud, low rates it really worked it stands for the proposition that a backstop is better than a direct loan in a lot of cases. we would look at it that way >> mime tame has expired i yield back. >> now the chair recognizes dr. meeks. >> thank you, mr. chair. thank you coming before us today and for your testimony there has been, i think, first
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and foremost, the improving economic position, we see today, do you think it would be in existing with three safe and effective vaccines >> i think that the vaccines and the widespread adoption of them are absolutely essential to the recovery. >> thank you >> currently, about 40% of workers are paid more than they did while working. employers in my state cannot find workers these are jobs greater than $15 an hour. even employers cannot find people to work between $80,000 and $130,000 salaries. true unemployment is far higher
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than the headline rite, and the labor force participation rate is nearly six percentages points below. shouldn't we be doing everything we can do incentivize work for our own citizens, and shouldn't we be looking at bringing in additional unskilled workers into this country at a time when we have a labor shortage of skilled workers? there i'm thinking of a significant number of people that still report themselves of being afraid of being infected or carrying the infection to
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somebody maw by vulnerable also unemployment may be interacting causing people to go on with their job search. we expect a lot of progress to go forward president biden promised not to raise taxes on anyone making under $400,000 a year, but inflation has already been noted, has increased dramatically
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and seniors on a fixed income. you -- does likely mean greater than a 95% chance, or do you have any level of confidence in that prediction? >> i have a level of confidence in that prediction it's very hard to say what the timing of that will be when will there be enough microchips when will the bottlenecks disappear? so it's hard to say, but honestly, if you look behind the headline, look at the categories where the prices are going up it
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should not leave much of a mark because we should be through it then thank you. publish annually says unamb unambiguously, the current path is unsustainable it's expected to projectsh and annual government spending will exceed 50% of gdp. do you agree with the conclusion of this report if so, isn't this an additional andone of the our greatest avoidable crises that we face? >> unsustainable means the debt is growing faster than the economy. that's been the case for a long time i don't think that's controversial. the point i would make is that the time to work on that problem
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will come, and that time is when employment is high, unemployment is low, taxes are rolling in, that's the right time to go to work on a longer-term program that gradually moves us back to primary back, and ultimately you have to get the gdp growing faster than the debt that's how countries get back to a sustainable path >> thank you so much i yield back my time. i'm very eager for them to take up the scientific questions
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been, and deal with the fact i have emphasized since the beginning in february, march, april, may for many months he defended them as doing a agree job. none of it excuses the lethal reqlessness of donald trump in his complete mismanagement of the coyne in our country, and we lost hundreds of thousands of people, and we got organized to crush it finally welcome to our commit year, mr. chairman i was taken with something you said in february when you said to raise lives standards over
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time is investment investment in people's skills and aptitudes, in plans and equipment. do you agree that it will increase our productive capacity and contribute to long-term economic growth in the country >> mr. raskin, i think it's basic economics that productivity is what -- and demographics are what drive longer-term grout in a country people, education, skills, things like that, so that's a point i was making back in february
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to do that are work, develop their businesses, to participate equally in school. i've had high school kids tell me they have to go to mcdonald's or starbucks in order to get internet they can use for their assignments. the american jobs plan would make unprecedented investments to expand broadband to these rural community. in my district i know that you don't comment on specific legislative proposals, but would you say in general expanding high-speed broadband access to millions of americans who don't have it, especially in rural areas would create new economic opportunities, and potential for long-term economic growth >> again, without commenting on particular legislation, i think i would look at become like that in the same way that prior generations looked at electricity.
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if kids don't have access to the knowledge that's available through the internet, they won't have -- >> that's a fascinating answer to me. when i tried to look at it historically, it seems like the definition of infrastructure has expanded over time when eisenhower said let's build the highways, they had what's that got to do with infrastructure infrastructure is bridges. you know, when president lincoln did the land grants to do university and colleges across the country, people set what's that got to do with infrastructure so it does seem like the definition of infrastructure changes.
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what is your definition in an economic -- >> i haven't had the time to think about it and wouldn't want to talk about it in that way -- >> in contribution to long-term economic growth? >> i don't see anything objectionable about that >> all right well, i just very much appreciate your emphasis on investment that's what we wanted with the american families plan, with the american jobs plan we want to reinvest in america to keep those jobs here in america, and to invest in our communities so we have a solid foundation for the continues growth of the great american middle class and for the opportunity for lots of poor working people to get into the middle class with that, i will yield back to you, mr. chairman. >> thank you, gentlemen, for yielding back. the chair recognizes mr.
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