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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  June 24, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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wholesale and it is across jordan and converse. we'll see if they give guidance that keeps the momentum go b here. >> and banks up and fedex down. >> things are clicking into place. we'll see if there is anything to follow through on a friday at the end of the a strong week. >> hallelujah. >> not yet that is going to do it for us on "closing bell. "fast money" begins right now. >> live in the nasdaq market site overlooking times square, this is "fast money.
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i'm melissa lee. tonight, guy aahmadi and tonight on "fast," the man who moved the market where we see stocks going from here plus all over the after hours action shares of fedex and nike, we'll break it down and give you the trades and later, guy adami had a different way to play the alzheimer's news while this is working out today. but we start off with big news from the big banks finding in the latest rounds of stress tests in the last half hour let's get to leslie with all of the details. >> a big second half for bank dividends and until monday banks are able to return capital to shareholders so long as it doesn't encroach on the tests we
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result of a severe hypothetical whereby the unemployment rate rose to 10.75% and gdp fell 4% with a 5e% decline under that framework, the fed that the banks would lose $470 billion the bulk of which would come from loan losses the aggregate in that structure slips to 10.5% which is more than double the minimum requirement. so all in all, a pretty good report. >> leslie picker, thank you. guy. >> oh, by the way, hello. >> good to see you. >> it is nice to be back i was on assignment for a couple of days. did you think the banks would pass this after they've gone through a real life stress test known as the pandemic. >> and that is the point that brian kelly made today on our call think it is way foregone conclusion so i don't think this is a tail wind that the banks will face
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but it is certainly not a head wind from my vantage point it is about tangible book. citi and guess what happened, because it traded up to 79 and has pulled back. think one against the banks are givening an opportunity to get long the stocks and one name imper vus, a name we've been mansioning is blackstone for the first time ever traded over $100 today. bx. >> not a bank. >> whoa, whoa, whoa. >> you just mentioned city group, it got above 80 it is about 16% from the highs this month and i thought that was interesting because that was double the down side performance of the peak to trough decline. so i think we're likely to see banks when they give their guidance for the third quarter and probably mid-july or so, we're going to see a different set of results, i think, and i would suspect that city group is
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not going to be in the best performing, jp morgan and morgan stanley pulled back to a level and maybe you get a run into the second quarter prints. but again i'm not expecting huge guidance in the back half of the year especially with visibility with raetzs and then maybe the deceleration or tough comps relative to the capital markets activity that we saw year-over-year. >> we have a blockbuster stack market in particularly in the first quarter. we had rates that were going up as opposed to going sideways so what do you think of the banks here was it any big deal in your view that they passed these stress tests? >> well, i think guy said and i think everyone expected it so now it comes down to what is next because the best days are behind us or one more great quarter and then we have to talk about deceleration because that is what people want to see. they want to see accelerating
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figures and if you're not going to do that, you better give capital to people. and then also going forward, thinking about guidance and who could continue to win because the comps get tougher. >> brian kelly, you've been working on your shot because your firing about this i wanted to bring fire and your face as opposed to fire on the phone. but we'll go for the phone you thought this was nothing >> hold on a second. >> seriously. >> brian kelly is supposed to be the bitcoin baller if you think about what is going on it just makes no sense to me >> as we speak, but can't jump on the -- >> so he was kind of fire emoji and dismissive of everything guy had to say but what did he say, guy. >> he said the bank was not a big deal i don't know if he used the term nothing burger that is something he would say but he was a bit exercised when we were talking about this today
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and probably rightly so as nadine just said so if it had been a disaster, we've had much different conversation but i think it was as a foregone conclusion like we talked about i'll say again, i mean rates here 1.5%, probably where banks want them to be and after the sell-off we've seen the dance point and you could see a reacceleration to the upside. >> i think it was a foregone conclusion that higher rates would be good for the banks and we traded along with it since we saw the ten year get to 175 and that is when the bank had topped out or so. listen, i don't think they know what they want and higher rates at 2% or higher, do we see a slowing economy and some of the trends that they benefited from over the last year or so kind of go away to me, guy, you keep kind of moving the goalpost a little bit. >> whoa whoa whoa. >> on the price of tangible book i don't know why you think that some of those things should be
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trading where they do. >> do me that is the only metric, and i look at where do they say tangible book is and we play the game. when citi trades at a number of different times, it does trade up to tangible book which we saw. jp morgan is way head but they are probably derveed of that and we bring that up all of the time so the first number i go to is tangible book value. >> take a look at the the action in the after-hours session which is a fraction of a percent move. brian kelly is in fact on the phone. what did you call these? a nonevent, a nothing burger, i can't remember. >> nonsense. nonsense [ inaudible ] the bank fails so what is -- i don't understand
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we're wasting and of all people because -- >> b.k our connection is horrendous dy hear the word nonsense. you called it absolutely nonsense and the banks lived through a real life stress test and then somewhat it comes to the unemployment number and the drop in gdp et cetera. we saw this in realtime. the banks were there for the economy when the economy needs the banks most and they performed. but for investors at this point, will the banks perform given the outlook for interest rates, et cetera. >> there is railing after the financial crisis about banks and look at what happened. we had a black swan event. and let me tell you something, banks got hit hard first because people thought that is where our problems were in the past, why did the fed move so quickly in february of 20, they were trying to avoid the seizing up of credit markets and they
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succeeded guy and that triggered you in so many different ways. but literally the regulation worked. >> i am triggered but i'm not going to -- i don't want to do a fed rant because it is not the day for it if tim seymour and karen were here, they would say -- >> what does this do as an investor, banks are in great shape but interest rates are below 1.5%. >> i would submit that 1.5% is okay if we go back down to the 1% -- >> appreciation of the stocks. >> yes. >> so you think they could infiltrate higher. >> absolutely. >> are we being cavalier because next week when we get the buybacks, are they going to be the thing that jp morgan is back to 160 i'm asking you guys. >> it is trading significantly lower since then obviously you mentioned when they all topped out, it makes
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sense. jm morgan have been getting a premium evaluation they are not a bank. i know that. but blackstone is the one financial -- >> there you go. >> to use the word impervious and the environment that we find ourselves in is bullish and i'm telling you something melissa, you're not listening i know when you're listening and when you're not. analysts will have to start raising price projects. >> nadine, why don't you weigh in do you think the announcement of capital return by banks next week, will that be a catalyst for them. >> people love it. i just saw the news. in between guy and him, i would say take some money off the table after that point because i think there is a bretter opportunitiesel where going forward. so i think people understand that the banks have been stollid and performed well the banks passed a stress test and giving money back to
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shareholders if something surprises on the upside, you'll get an extra bump but i don't see this as something to continue on to be leader of where you want to put your money. >> let's bring in girard cassidy. great to have you with us. >> thank you, melissa. >> your take on whether or not this is a catalyst for these stocks >> we do believe it is a catalyst when you see the released monday night which the stress capital buffer numbers will also receive the capital action plans and thinking about the dividends for a moment the banks were not permitted to raise dividends in 2020. so they have a year of catch up. so we expect to see double-digit rates and growth in dividends when they make the announcement on sunday night. we have the strong buybacks as you know j.p. morgan announcing a $30 million buy back one of the other pieces of news, in prior stress tests the banks had to have a pre-approval on
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the dividend increase and buy back that is no longer the requirement. so these banks could be aggressive on the buybacks in the second half of 2021. >> so you could put this in context of what the business environment is for the banks year on year and quarter on quarter when it comes to equity trading, when it comes to investment banking and is the set up as good as it was last quarter in rates of course >> yes no, it's not as you know, the numbers in the first quarter and for the second quarter of last year were tremendous the numbers this quarter will not match anywhere close to the first quarter or second quarter numbers. but that is been disclosed so that's priced into the stocks so i think you'll see the capital market numbers they're senting up into the quarter, and everybody's expectations is slowered, but the actual year over year and quarter over quarter comparisons will be negative because of the strains
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on prior period. >> i know you heard dan nathan make fun of me saying i moved the goalpost, but is that irrelevant when you look at bank earnings >> absolutely. i think the earnings today is being artificially impacted by loan loss reserve, so we're looking at price intangible and book value and when you look at year end 2017 and look at where the banks were trading in what i would call a normal environment. if we could get to that kind of normal environment by the year end '22 and into '23, the upside for the banks is so very strong in our view. >> i think guy's follow up that you would like to ask, you think dan nathan is wrong. but i'll push that aside and in terms of your favorite stock at this point for stock appreciation charts, which one is it? >> i would say bank of america continues to be the stock of choice and the reason being 90% of their business is here in the united states. we all know this economy is
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really strong and recovering, i'm back on the road, i'm in an airport right now, it is very crowded so i would say bank of america has opportunities for growth and most of all you'll see a nice dividend increase next week and they have a big biegback they have $25 million set aside for buybacks and that could be lifted this year if they choose to you. >> safe travels. brian kelly is on the phone and there fact well connected to us in terms of his sound. so bine, what do you think of bank of america? >> well, i think they're fwien i don't think you're going to get rich off of owning all of these. maybe there are some upside to these, right but you think about the bank, one they've had a tremendous run coming into this number two, they are getting -- they have competition from all sides from fin tech, from cryptocurrencies, from everything so they are in the process of
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being disrupted and if history tells you anything, you want to sell the disrupties and buy the disruptors >> i think that is a great point, mel bank of america have a $345 billion market cap. you know what else does? paypal when you think about the equal market caps and all of the other sthuf stuff, i think you would rather buy the disruptors. >> fedex shares are dropping frank collins has all of the details. >> shares of fedex falling almost 4% after a record revenue and eps for the quarter. that beat estimates by 4%. for comparison, by 20% last quarter and the company offering full year guidance with the top and bought am end of the range was above estimates but not far enough for investors total revenue 30% higher year-over-year and double-digit revenue growth in all segments over the estimate. so sounds like a pretty solid quarter.
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express air delivery, 32% higher year-over-year looking closer at expressing ground, the company managed to increase volumes and yield per package and margin simultaneously and year-over-year and quarter to quarter. but the bottom line is this is not the kind of blowout quarter during the height of the pandemic and the investors not enthused by the guidance ups trading lower in sympathy. the call started a few minutes ago. but we'll listen for details on capacity and surcharges, doubling the surcharge for residential deliveries in this week back over to you. >> keep us posted. nadine, your thoughts on fedex >> we like it. we're looking for a pullback so this might give it to us tomorrow because coming into the quarter with call it minus five to one down side because obviously had run up a bit it's been a little bit bearish on the short line, and intermediate trade line but it trades an volatility of premium so people are paying for protect
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at 52% we like that and did the company go into detail yet about where they're going to be post this quarter and are they going to be able to sustain high growth? no, they haven't given a lot of details. while the guidance was up, it wasn't remarkably up so maybe investors were looking to take some money off the table and go elsewhere. but you see a pullback and we believe this should have multiple quarters of continuing growth the supply chain is still constrained, they'll have to move items and so there is not a lot of places to go. so we do like fedex. >> coming off the ups announcement a couple of weeks ago. i look at this, you should follow frank holland on twitter because he posted a great picture of him. >> i saw him >> fire emojis anyway, if you look, express is half the revenue so they'll do 22 billion, half of which is an express and the margins were disappointing so the street is thinking maybe things are not as operating as
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well on that side of things. i say this is a valuation story. if you give it a market multiple or something close, it should be a $400 stock it is not going there tomorrow but think fed etch is cheap here. >> i think that this earnings season we're going to be faced with the question of how are the stocks priced in the relationship to where businesses compared to the peak, right. that is peak business for fedex and for ups a couple of quarters ago and it is not and probably won't be. >> and people remind about historical valuation, guy just made a case why this is a cheap stock toward the market. but why is it trading so far below a market multiple. very cyclical. they've had some head winds, some secular shifts that sort of thing. to me, i think value traps are value traps and it is consolidating like this for a very long time it didn't even get to break out when ups broke out after their last quarter but to your point about what desh we have the precursor
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we talked about it last night on the show the ups analyst told you what these guys were going to do. so at 290, could it go to 280, what is the low end of the range. >> 245 i know you knew that and you teed me up and they reported a great quarter and stocks sell off and we wondered why is this happening to see it get back above 300. i think it is a company running better now for almost three consecutive quarters. >> coming up, shares of nike roooshing higher thugh we're talking to the plan who moves the markets don't go anywhere. much more "fast money" right much more "fast money" right after this sign integrates what the tools are already using so you can grab signatures across organizations and even time zones to save you money, materials and mileage. making it easy to sign here from anywhere
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welcome back to "fast money. we have another earnings alert on nike. let's get to sara eisen for the details. >> good to see you the ceo just saying the returns to sport and the permanent shift for consumers like shopping online and buying fitness products are helping nike. and nike did knock it out of the park this quarter. some highlights, direct sales which is a proxy for digital
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surging 73%. that explains the big jump in margins that came in well above expectations of 45.8% gross margin as digital is proving to be por profitable. overall sales nearly doubling driven by the triple-digit growth in whole sale or stores that were open not this time last year and double-digit growth online including in their sneakers app listen to what he just said about that >> the emotion and pour of our brand to life through our digital eco-system, which is led by the sneakers app. in q4, sneakers grew over 90% in demand and saw nearly 80% growth in monthly active users. we're now offering this growing audience of high value members and almost daily flow of compelling content and product launches >> just a few other lights, north american sale got hurt by supply chain issues as ships
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were idle off the coast, came back a strong 141% and china, which was a bit of a wild card, grew revenue 17% which shows that it was impacted by the backlash surrounding the shin jong controversy but the boycotts it is a step down in growth for nike but double-digits still points to strong demand. john donahoe saying going forward they lie in the womens an the jordan brands, those are standouts at the moment. we're waiting on guidance. we're expecting to get numbers from the cfo in a few minutes. and around china, to see whether the business is improving from some the initial backlash which should start around april. and we're waiting for the olympics which is a catalyst for nike products. it was down 5.5% on the year going into the report but still at a high valuation, 42 times next year's earnings, back over to you. >> sara, thanks.
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sara eisen from the new york stock exchange interesting setup in terms of olympics back-to-back for the tirs time ever but just before you were saying this is a great quarter. >> in north american revenues, almost a billion dollars better than expected. came in at $5.4 billion. demand creation expense was better, meaning they're running their business more efficiently and margins and next kwaerts should be even better and yes valuation is expensive ive think the stock just got cheaper in terms of the back of the quarter and my sense is this should set it up to take out of the january high of 147.95. >> brian kelly, your thoughts on nike. >> guy made the point about margins an that is the name of the game as we go into q3 and q4 of the market because everybody is wondering who is going to be able to raise prices and keep their costs low. and so if you have nike that could actually increase their
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margins, and have good revenues, i think they're going to be rewarded by the stock market and so they've basically suppose planted the slow down in china with online sales and good for them i think this is going to catch on >> and who used to sell nike at their stores, they're not getting the sales boost or the traffic boost from nike products any more nadine, your thoughts on nike here >> i think you're talking about footlocker i'm not sure who you are talking about. on nike, in agreement here, john has been running this company like the boss that he is and you saw that with the growth in digital, the margin increase and now they're gaining china. but the comments around china t but you should see continued improvement in the fundamentals of the company and as growth is unlocking internationally, so you know a lo of places are
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still shut down and sydney had to lockdown again. you're going to see a longer pathway for this company so we're bullish. >> all right we're just getting started here on "fast money" because it is coming up next >> markets at record highs but should you fear a summer slump? the man who moves the markets joins us with his predictions for where stocks are going from here and later, it is a bumpy ride for bitcoin and it might be about to get even bumyer the hidden threat lurking in the cryptocurrency, and we have that and a lot more when "fast money" returns. that let you see everything on your network. plus an expert team looking ahead 24/7 to help prevent threats. every day in ready for what's next.l keu comcast business powering possibilities.
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welcome back to "fast money. another day for the record books. the s&p 500 and nasdaq closing
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at hall time highs the blue chip added 322 points the man who moves markets joins us now the chief market strategists at jp morgan. >> thank you for having me. >> you think rates will go higher what is powering that move. >> we think they will go toward 195 por the end of the year. it is basically reopening july and august reopening in the u.s., reopening in the u.s. increasing economic activity, mobility and basically yields will resume going higher. >> so your target on the s&p 500 is 4,400 and i'm wondering what does that move higher look like because before whenever we've seen rates go higher you use technology and could we have that move higher sustainably to 4400 the end of the year if we don't have technology participate? >> you see like 44 is not that much higher. >> right. >> and in technology, we think
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technology goes in line with the market which is basically a few percent. so that is correct technology with the rising yields see a bit of a head wind but earnings are still strong. technology companies will benefit from reopening so they go up. but they have a head wind. on the other side, value stacks have a tail wind so while they go up -- the s&p 500 goes up 5%, we think it could go up much more. >> i'm with you on the 195 and it is painful but i think it is going to start to reaccelerate but my question is will this coincide with the federal reserve that is going to have to ratchet back some of the rhetoric they've had over the last six to nine months. >> so we think no and we hope no obviously last week was a challenging week, right. the fed came on wednesday and then market took it the wrong way on thursday and try -- and some technical drivers so that pushes yields lower and flattened the curve and value
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took a hit so long story short, we think fed will prioritize jobs and making sure not to cut the recovery short so i could go -- i think they'll keep sort of stimulus and keep the sort of recommendation and that is going to let -- let the market move higher and value move higher. but there are other views in the market that might move so that is a big debate. and i think last week was a challenging week thursday, friday, but look at this week. we are resuming values and higher and we think that is going to be the trend. >> and marco, with this stronger nominal activity, you've got probably higher inflation in that -- in the comments that you made with yields going up. obviously cyclicals are a place to be. but what do you say to investors who are saying it is -- for the cheap relative valuations is it
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too early or what would you say to the folks looking at the sectors that have fallen behind. >> so, you know, i would say it is -- i would say we think it is an early cycle and because sort of reopening is only starting. people are only starting to go to offs now and soon they'll go to vacations and so on and so forth. so i think it is too early to turn defensive now there will probably be sometime. but let's see how the summer reopening goes and how strong sort of activities, where the positions is by the end of the summer early september. so maybe there will be a time but we think it is just -- and when you say it is lagging, when you have the strong bounce in the economy post the recession, it is probably early now so any way, our view is that this is still early cycle and we think we'll sort of reconsider in september and october and we may still stay constructive but right now when you have basically july reopening in
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europe and u.s. i think it is too early to go defensive now. >> mark, i wanted to ask you about the note from earlier this week about the jm morgan macro survey you polled and 62% thought cryptocurrency was in a bubble ev's were in a bubble. 17%. only a few believe that bond proxies 5% are in territory. you said that was a bubble back? january and you were right on when it came to that and the fall that we've seen recently. where is it now in your view >> well there was a -- it is hard to say. for us, it is -- we like to have some anchor and we don't see the anchor there but there was a correction so they are certainly cheaper than they were and long-term, we don't have a price target we still think it is a very speculative -- with very questionable anchors so people who see the current pull back as an opportunity and
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have a conviction long-term, they'll probably say that it is cheap and those who don't believe it say it is expensive at any price so the survey that we had reflects that a little bit i think i would say all of the -- this is our macro conference, it is pretty split roughly half and half are believers and nonbelievers and nonbelievers think it is zero and believers thinking it much, much higher. so i think it is an interesting thing. but we officially do not cover it so we do not have a price target. >> great to speak with you thank you. >> thank you and we'll have much more been bitcoin later on in the show but in the meantime, brian kelly, your thoughts on 195 and what the market would like like if the rates went to 195 would it be higher or where it is >> i think that it would be higher, i think that is what we're seeing over the last couple of days and we have this window of opportunity here between now and probably the jackson hole meeting, the fed jackson hole
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meeting in aug where they will signal a change in monetary policy but powell told the market, we're go not going to do anything until we get 5% inflation and that leaves the door open for rates to go higher, equities to go higher and reflation/inflation rate will start moving higher >> dan >> i don't disagree with him in the quarter end next week and into q2 earnings which we'll get starting in the third week of july, you might have a bit of a runway the major indices are breaking out. the s&p 500 and the nasdaq and the russel 2,000 has been consolidating since february so you may get a breakout there. to go back to the very beginning about earnings expectations for the back hast half of the year, as much as we rally into q2 earnings, you might have that pullback and the pullback might come if rates start notching higher and the indication that the fed might get more hawkish
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between the july meeting and jackson hole in late august. and thatco the set up for a rocky august and i just take you back to the summers in '15 and '16 when we have growth. this is a rolling reopening. it is not all happening like that so to me i think the late summer, the higher we go, maybe the harder we fall. >> i'm not trying to curry favor with the crypto currency 52% think it is rat poison there is something called survey bias i would check off rat poison just because. >> even if you didn't believe it just because rat poison is a option. >> melissa lee. >> shares of eli lilly hitting a an all-time high following positive development on the alzheimer's drug we'll tell you what it means and plus as you mentioned bitcoin, jp morgan said it is buyer be care.
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this is from the analyst who covered bitcoin. we'll break down that call much more "fast money" right after this there's interest you accrue, and interests you pursue. plans for the long term, and plans for a long weekend. assets you allocate, and ones you hold tight. at thrivent, we believe money is a tool, not a goal. and with the right guidance, you can get the financial clarity you need, and live a life rich in meaning, and gratitude. to learn more, text thrive to 444555, or visit thrivent.com. uno, dos, tres, cuatro! [sfx]: typing [music starts]
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welcome back to "fast money. shares of eli lilly breaking out to a fresh all-time high after the fda granted a break through
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designation for the alzheimer's drug our "fast money" fans pay remember a few weeks ago when guy said this is one of the best ways to play the space >> the place to be is eli lilly because that is the one with my opinion, better pipeline, better valuation, stock at all-time highs today. you trade lilly off of bio gen in my opinion. >> shares of bio gen dropped today. >> we talked about it. we said lilly is set up well and it did if you were waiting for the news from bio gen, this is the opportunity to take money off the table and bio gen was taking 410 at time and i think it is down 12%, 13% since. so now is it time to flip again. i don't think it is. but bio gen gets down to 330, you buy it and lilly approaching 250, you take some money off the
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table for earnings. >> nadine, where are you on pharma. >> i have to give my hats off to the good friend leading the chart here at lilly. -- has been difficult and volatile so we would trade as guy is saying here in the winners are winning i would take some money off the table and when things fall too hard you have to put it back on and understand the pipelines it is hard it is a more of a defensive area like we heard from marco, those areas have not been doing well so you have to trade around them. >> and it sounds like we'll get? boosters from pfizer, moderna, johnson and johnson and i think pfizer between 38 and 40 which is where it is been trading sets up well here i think we'll hear more about that as we get into the fall so to me pfizer is the way to play it. >> coming up, new pressure for bitcoin. brian kelly is diving into what could be a major head wind for the cryptocurrency and plus one software stock has seen a huge jump and they're
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betting the rallies continue we have the trade when "fast money" returns >> miss a moment of fast, catch us on go us on go follow the "fast money" podcast. us on go follow the "fast money" podcast. so you're finally supporting his rock star dream... because you know you have a plan to pay it off. buy now, pay later, with plan it. one of the many things you can expect when you're with amex. ♪ i wish that i knew what i know now ♪ ♪ when i was young... ♪ you need a financial plan that fits the way you want to live in retirement. a plan that can help grow and protect your money - now or in the future. with an annuity in your plan to help cover essential expenses, you'll have the freedom to live the retirement you want. this is what an annuity can do. find the right financial professional to show you how. learn more at protectedincome.org.
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a hidden hid wind could put pressure on the price of bitcoin. the spending exploration of the bitcoin trust lockup that could send it even lower b.k., how much pressure do you think this could put on gbtc if any? brian kelly? >> and we lost so problematic. >> he's like too busy mining and taking up bandwidth and there is no connection for the phone. for the good old send a telegram and let us know what you think about the lock up expiration -- >> or smoke signals. >> that is even better. >> it is out now because of bk, jerk. >> and so that story is catching some steam and people are talking about supply and maybe it is bitcoin to sell. this 30,000 to 40,000 range has been important over the last week or two or so. i know that guy likes to quote carter braxton, if you break 30
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there is an air pocket down to 20 20,000 was the break out level in december of 2020, the all heim tie from december of 2017 so it is important i just don't know what the callus are right now did china double down on mining. >> b.k. is back. >> we have b.k. >> i'll go with the baller. >> yeah, me too. >> b.dk., what do you think? >> i go, me to that is my choice. i'm not sure how much you heard of what i was saying but you have this on lock coming and had t has been a weight on bitcoin for the last couple of months and so after july -- i think it is like 12th or so what you'll see is there is not that much selling. so we have a period of time between now and july 12th where you could see a little bit of a rally and then would you be worried about this big about 16,000 bitcoin coming off of lock in the middle of july but after that, you could see it
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is kind of clear sailing for a bit. so as long as we have the fed keeping the pedal to the medal and risk asset going higher, we have to get through this spike of bitcoin supply and then i think we turn things around. >> part of the note was that jp morgan thinks fair value is between 25,035,000 in the median term do you think of bitcoin in terms of fair value? >> it is one of those very difficult things like with any currency to do the model that you use, uses addresses. and we've talked about it on the show before. for me right now where i would think that bitcoin is getting expensive is about 55,000. at about 29,000, it is cheap so that is kind of the range that i'm looking at right now. >> you know, b.k., some people might take a look at gbtc because it always -- or not always but has trading at a premium to bitcoin and now there is a reverse there is a discount.
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so they think the bigger the discount, the more sure bet it is could that apply to the situation still or not any more, is that over >> what is happening, the reason why the unlocks are so important because people have locked in a spread so their unwinding that trade. and that is why you're seeing the pressure on bitcoin. if we see it go back to a premium, i'm not necessarily expecting it to go back to a premium, then that trade might come back on and that means people buy bitcoin or into the gbtc instruct and that is a tail wind for the market. so we need to see that premium come back for it to have another tail wind for bitcoin. >> all right coming up, options traders are homing in on one software stock seeing a huge rally. mike khouw joins us, and a president of the lgbtq chamber
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welcome back a sneak peek at the cramer cam he's talking to the ceo of starbucks. catch the interview at top of the hour on "mad money." the trade desk soaring higher. the aztec stock as news causing a big stir amongst options traders. mike, what caught your eye today. >> it trades more than 10 times its already option volume today and where we saw most of the activity was in very short dates
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options, options that expire at the end of this week and next week the one expiring next week was over 15,000 at a v wop, and buyers are speculating that the big spike that we've seen in these shares since the may 10th low may continue but of course the run has been significant. 54% or so up since that low. so, i ty options are probably the only way you try to chase this one. >> it is not often that we bring that up. >> no. and i was going to say, he's confused he thinks it is friday night for those playing at home on our "fast money," that is volume weighted average price i thought we could throw that out there as a more you know. >> it is good to explain the acronyms that we might bandy about as if everybody knows. but dan, what did you make of the trade desk pop matic was up on the news. >> mike talks about some short dated options so looking for a move above 80. it broke the down trend it's
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been in. and i don't remember this is the reason why the stock was trading dow down over the last six months or so i think mike makes sense if you want to continue to play the momentum, maybe you do some short dated options but i suspect it has technical resistance in around the mid to low 70s. >> mike, did you take a look at the "options action" and think that this was a head of the all of the fingerprints of the reddit trade. >> there was a significant amount of retail flow in there but that wasn't all that we saw. there was actually some good block size trades going on in there and i'm talking about two, three, 500 contracts at a clip and that is not what you would see with the reddit crowd. those are usually talking about single-digits, five maybe ten contracts at the most. so while a lot was retail, there are some institutional participants in here as well. >> mike khouw. >> mike khouw. coming up next, final trade. ed.
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welcome back to "fast money. let's get another check on shares of nike up 12.5% after reporting
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earnings a blow out quarter, strong growth if china, up 17% in greater china. it is now right now in the after hours at a fresh all-time high nike, 150 a share. >> we talked about that. they should set it to take up the prior -- >> time for the final trade around the horn. brian kelly? >> i'm calling it on skype they have a reaction button and heart, heart, i heart that nike trade. but for my final one i will say fslr. >> nadine. >> equine ex, we've been in for a while. it just broke the low end of the trading range to 8 to 1 upside. >> dan. >> i mentioned pfizer, good catalyst potential here so i like pfizer. >> guy. >> i know you're an avid hockey
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fan. we're surprised that the islanders pulled it out last night. >> 100%. >> a shocking win. now what chance do you give them in tampa to win? >> 20%. >> you heard it first here twitter, day two, mel. >> thanks for watching "fast money. stay right there my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make money. my job is not just to have fun but to educate you and teach you. tweet meji

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