gain for the nasdaq. but the dow is olower for the month. >> dow is lower, equated s&p is lower, mid-caps are lower. there is a split in what is doing the lifting in this little moveup. >> that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" starts now. life in the nasdaq markets overlooking new york city's times square this is "fast money. tim, dan, karen, and guy tonight on "fast." we are hitting the friendly skies. united securing the largest aircraft order in history. what it means straight ahead. a crypto king on the record. joe lubin joins us to talk about the red hot one in the cryptocurrency market. and later trading the semis. chip stocks an all-time high one says watch this name to see if a bigger breakout is building

we start with what we think at least are the three most important charts in the market the dollar, the transports, and caterpillar. chart number one the dollar dan flagged in one, breaking 92, above it today what do you make of this chart >> i thisty has something to do with seasonally in the quarter enand get into q2 earnings reports, we know that inflation was a hot topic on the q 1 calls and it was one of those things that i think a lot of companies, s&p companies were highlighting as a potential really be a headwind for margins here is the thing. if a lower dollar is inflationary, if the u.s. dollar if you look at that dixie, the dollar induction, half of that is about the euro, you say, okay f we bottom the dollar is going higher how does that inflate inflation expectations for u.s. corporate earnings a strong dollar has a lot of implications for u.s. corporate earnings, too. i think it's important to put

this on the radar as we head into q3 and specifically into q2 earnings. >> also huge implications for trades that were weak dollar trades u resource trades, global strides, mining trades, some bank trades. if you think about the weaker dollar, part was at least some sense you were getting this reflation, yields were moving higher i agree. i still think that the dollar was a very crowded trade to the downside we are up 3% off of that bottom. you saw the move it made on fed day. it almost feels like it's fighting to kind of get back to that level if it doesn't think you could see the dollar weaken up:i agree the dollar is critical. >> i mean, guy talked about commodities, thinking there is room here. if the dollar goes higher, how could the trades go higher >> well, the tailwind for weaker dollar no longest exists and it will become a headwind if brian kelly were here he would say that a stronger dollar is a wrecking ball for so many

of these multinational names and i agree with tim maybe it was a little crowded as dan said as well as maybe this overcrowded is bouncing. i still think the infrastructure deal, i the dollar will continu lower and that probably will continue to be good for the resource names there is no denying the dollar had a big bounce off those lows. >> karen >> i guess for multinationals it will be important. to me it's about this inflation trade and where -- and is inflation really transitory or not. all of these are, obviously, all connected, right, inflation and the dollar and bonds and all of that, and it's just interesting to me that the inflation fears seemed to have come down i don't know if you saw the salesforce bond issuing today. i mean, they issued 40-year paper and i think it was 95 basis points over treasuries for 40-year paper. that's astounding to me that the

credit markets are wide open and well bid even in the potential face of inflation. i really don't know what to make of it, actually. so i am not trading around the dollar i would do a terrible job of that for sure. i don't know what to make of it. i am a little confounded. >> some of the commodities are sending mixed signals. the decline in lumber prices, 42% in the month but you look at steel prices and they are still higher. i will go tim because you are in the steel trade, tim is there something unique about steel that are keeping the prices bid higher or -- >> some of it is -- >> mixed messages? >> it's a supply demand dynamic. we have argued that the tariffs on the steel injury were bad for the steel companies. especially some of the industrial growth in the auto sector, a lot of finished goods and that steel price i think still stays high hrc, rhot coil, they are 2 1/2

times pre-covid. the housing numbers this morning, 30-year highs, all-time highs, up 14.6% on houses. and that's inflationary. >> right if the fed is going to actually start guiding towards maybe some sort of taper, who heknows, rigt and we won't get it in july, maybe at the end of the summer in jackson son hole, the dollar will rally and what happens to the resource trade or what's left in energy i think to 2014, '15, '16 when the fed tapered and came off of zero interest rate policy, the dollar went up and crude went down devastatingly. >> on to chart number two, the iyt transportation etf closing in on the 100 machine day moving average. tim, you thought this was one of the most important charts. >> i did there are so many days to go with transport if you are a dow

theorist it's a little bit of a dated intoer are i the relationship between the industrial average and the transportation average one taking the other higher or the lower. and you have a case where this is a rolling top possibly at a time when if we are worried about the fed and we see all of the industrial steng we see it reminds me so much of the fourth quarter of 2018. if you take that chart and go back and you can see that that's the first move and that was also the last time essentially it traded through that 100-day aggressively so i don't know that we're in june of 2018, but we know what markets did in 2018. does the fed overstep their bounds the transports will price that in before. remember fedex was already flailing basically from june so fedex which puts up monster numbers, there is a big upgrade today by bank of america and it's hard to argue against fedex, how much of this is priced in? we have to watch this chart. i am not saying it's rolling over but there is a similar setup to what we had in the second half of 2018 where the

fed was in play. you price in an enormous amount of great and it seemed like there is no way you could sell fedex off and it led other stocks lower. >> karen you bought that off of the weakness off of earnings >> right i love the story i think that some people think, all right, it's an e-commerce story. as the world reopeningse, the e-commerce part dies i don't believe that the deliveries to businesses are denser we will see more of that they have pricing power. that's what's really important and between they and u.p.s., you know, they are pretty much rationalizing the business in a smart way. they are both having pricing power which is excellent for both of them so i think it's cheap. if we get to a situation where the fed is raising, let's say, or tapering, i want to be in a low pe multiple company like

fedex. so many parts of the stories could it trade cheaper absolutely if it does i will be there buying. >> guy, does iyt cause you concern? >> tim brings up a great point i understand that the dow theory, when i was young it was a big deal nowadays it doesn't hold as much weight i think it's good -- >> it was discovered back then, right? >> as it turns out thank you for bringing that up i appreciate that. i mean, it makes me warm and fuzzy. it's important to point out because the rails have been on fire starting to run out of steam i agree with karen i think fedex is a monister on valuation without question it's off the mat since that earnings sell-off last week. i know you get mad when we bring back the guests, as they say, i don't know if i'm allowed to back to what dan said about if the fed tapered, what that means for the toller i agree. but if that is offset by the

fiscal side of the equation, if the government continues to spend money like drunken sailors, i think that will be the other side, i think i'll take the other side of that rising dollar, say the dollar goes lower sorry to do this to you. i am sure you are rolling your eyes at me right now. >> she is. you said something that the markets, we saw it in lumber anticipating 30 year highs in housing. the iyt purely on a technical level thoon 100-day moving average and there is an air pocket to the 200-day moving average at 235 a lot of stocks have incorporated good narratives about weird dynamics in the supply demand sort of situation here and supply chains and like. but to me i think that if they can't act well as the s&p is making new lies seemingly every day, there is probably more downside. >> this is a canary in your view

>> i don't think that the market -- it feels frothy a little bit, incrementally making new highs. what was the s&p up two bps today? we'd love to see a really sharp sell-off to see what investors are made of here, maybdown 5 fei or something >> it's a little bit of a macro class, right and i think what karen is saying about caterpillar, excuse me, we are going to talk about caterpillar. saying about fedex is very important with this stock. this is a company that's really on top much its game the margin improvement, efficiencies of this company and it was only two years ago that we were running a string of terrible quarters, the management team was under a ton of pressure. it's a very different company with the secular trends and what they are doing bottom up. >> let's talk about caterpillar, this is chart number three caterpillar down nearly 13% from the f-52-week high guy, this causes you concern

>> it does because this is, obviously, the post he child for the global ghost story one of them. we talked about it for quite some time. we have been constructive on a name and it has had a ridiculous run. if you look since they reported earnings at the end of april the stock traded up briefly and it's to your point down 14% off that recent all-time high concerning because that quarter was astonishing in my opinion and i think given the fact that you are talking about 25 to #% eps growth it should be north of the price t what does caterpillar know that we don't they report i bemid of july or thereabouts. two things sort of stay with me. cart he braxton worth, who does a tremendous job on this show and so many others, specifically "options action" each friday at 5:30, few weeks ago, if not a month ago ago, he talked about caterpillar, he saw a sell-off coming and he was right and

morgan stanley had an underweight on the name with a $181 price target. if caterpillar is the poster child for global growth maybe we should be watching it more closely. >> that's the question is it a cat specific story or a poster child tim, where do you stand? >> what happens with companies during difficult times is they become lean and become efficient and, you know, i think the reference to maybe it was fedex, maybe caterpillar, the elephant can dance. i remember hearing this when we went through the crisis and it forces these big industrial companies to learn how to dance. in caterpillar's case, they are running very smooth. the multiple depending where you are, i think the street says they should be trading around 19, 20, 21 types that. makes it a $240 stock here again it's a function i think of this company running well. no question guy is bringing it up in the i same way we would be talking about transports here. caterpillar is a flagship member

of this club and clearly this is what people are placing faith in. >> we are highlighting three charts but they are part of a mosaic, if you will, in terms of where the market could be going. so the takeaway from these three charts with theoretically and presumably negative for the markets as we sit here at pretty much record highs. is that conclusion, karen? >> well, i always reich to come back to yogi berra we're lost, but we're making good time. i am not sure where it ends up but to me it's the labor numbers are really going to be important. if they stay in the middle of the fairway, i think we can get out of the here just fine. so that's kind of what i -- it's not the most likely scenario but t certainly not impossible we are getting mixed messages because the world is full of missioned messages i am optimistic on the global growth story so i'm staying long. i think one other thing we

didn't really talk about is the rotation of these things they are out of favor. instead, people want to own zoom and docusign and i don't think there is a commentary on their business it's sentiment and what's out of favor. i am so used to being out of favor, i am fine with it i am happy to own a portfolio that's unfive favorable shlts stop that talk. >> i think karen makes a good point about the rotations here the-is notching new highs every day and we're seeing some groups that act poorly. we were talking about them over the last few weeks or so obviously, the rotations are helping out which really draws you into what's the breadth of the market, right. it's not particularly great at the moment. >> it's fine. >> it's negative and those five names make up about 20% of the s&p 500 and about 40% of the nasdaq 100 which is pretty astounding when you think about it and they are in favor now that's not a great setup in the q2 earnings the next few weeks we will continue to surge into q2 ending and if they continue to go that the earnings we saw this after q1 it will be hard

for them to rally no matter how good the results are because there are going to be difrt comparisons year over year. >> coming up, united placing its largest airplane order ever. is the stock ready for takeoff plus, joe lubin is joining us to give us his ideas on crypto don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back after this. . business was steady, but then an influx of new four-legged friends changed everything. dr. petsworth welcomed these new patients. the only problem? more appointments meant he needed more space. that's when dr. petsworth turned to his american express business card, which offers spending potential that's built for his changing business needs. he used his card to furnish a new exam room and everyone was happy. get the card built for business. by american express. uno, dos, tres, cuatro! [sfx]: typing [music starts]

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or visit an xfinity store to learn how our switch squad makes it easy to switch and save hundreds. . welcome back to "fast. major news as united announces a 200 jet order from boeing and a major hiring program phil lebeau is in newark. >> every so often there is a game changer type of order from an airline remember when american way back when back in like 2010 or so said we're going to order a couple hundred, three or 400 new aircraft and it was considered a game changer at that time? well, now take a look at what's happened today with united airlines the ceo of united airlines, who has been behind a number of big orders with other airlines in the past, saying they need to do better so they are going to be bringing in 200 new boeing 737 maxs, 70

airbus a321 neos and then a replacement, 200 regional jets those are gone they will be replaced with larger main line jets. a big commitment to say it's not enough to put people on a regional jet maybe from denver to chicago or chicago to new york. and then they are going to be upgrading the customer experience all new interians. they are going to be adding seat back entertainment in every seat, more premium seats, larger overhead bins. here is scott kirby talking with us on "squawk box" about the need to do better with customers. >> the anecdotes we hear from customers is once we get to september they are going to be back on the road particularly for client facing business i don't think business travel comes back 100% until 2023 but i think we have a big step function increase in september, another one in january when people have budgets again.

but we absolutely think it's coming back 100% >> my apologize. i thought we were going to be talking about customer service different story. he talked about the fact that business travel and all travel, it's accelerating. you are seeing this with passenger levels for the last four days, three of them have seen more than 2 million people flying in the u.s. look at a few stocks here. obviously, there is united this is a huge deal. 25,000 jobs are going to be added between now and 2025 it will take four years to bring in all of these airplanes. take a look at boeing and then at ge. for boeing, this is further validation for the 737 max and it really helps them solidify the delivery cadence over the next couple of years and then for ge the company makes the cfm engine which powers the 737 max. melissa, i don't know if guy is on today i swear yesterday he asked me

about this and i said i think it's priced in the stock when it comes to boeing. he said, no, phil is wrong the pop is going to stock if there is an order announced. didn't see the stock pop become to you. >> oh, zinger! >> you want to respond >> no. i'm here hi no, i was going to bring that up i'm glad phil did. i absolutely said, first of all, the timing was good. good to see phil yesterday, number one frm you did see that move boeing opened higher on the day. phil was spot on today's price action is disappointing. for the boeing bulls out there which i had been one got to cause some consternation i would think. great job by phil. i appreciate him pointing that out. >> next time i want to see them in person. face to face >> all right phil, thanks next time it is. phil lebeau in newark airport. amazing, i mean, as a boeing bull, but on united also you

have been in the airline trade but just a year ago it lost $7 billion, took almost $8 billion in government aid, and here we are talking about the biggest order of aircraft in its history. what a turn. >> guy always kills people with kindness good for you you have a case here where also this order was very much in place pre-covid. united had to -- no, part of the issue here is everybody -- i think it was well flagged that united had a major order to revamp its fleet that was effectively in place pre-covid. the important dynamics here, i think, scott kirby talking getting back to essentially margin levels or improving by 2023 chasm, which would be you know, seat miles, cap ex-as well depending how you look at it they are cutting it. one of the nice things about higher fuel prices is it forces

airlines to be more efficient. one of the dynamics that i think the market is concerned with airlines as we started to see demand come back online especially some of that maybe a little bit of international is are they going to grow the routes and capacity too quickly. that's a killer for airline. the uptrends i think for boeing and the airlines are intact. >> yeah. karen? >> well, i miss the whole airline trade. starting from that position. i'm not sure how much of this boom, this return and these big numbers the tsa numbers we see every day are transitory as well we talk about, you know, a big rush to go see people, that you haven't seen in a really long time, but are people going to continue to travel at that pace? i don't know so many industries face the same thing whether it's retail or whatever but i have missed the airline trade and the balance sheets for me just can't get there. it's moved so far now. >> speaking of travel, do not miss an exclusive interview with booking holdings ceo glenn fogel

tomorrow morning right here on cnbc we've got a lot more ahead here's what's coming up. >> so much talk of bitcoin lately what about ethereum? the crypto's co-founder joins us next to break down his thoughts on the space. plus, charging up. a new all-time high today. is it too late to plug into this trade? he atnd a lot more when fast armenian returns. has failed to take off. returnsn'on returns returnse es ♪ ♪ ♪ automation can solve that by taking on repetitive tasks for us. unleash your potential. uipath. reboot work. [swords clashing] - had enough? - no... arthritis.

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ideas festival with the ethereum co-founder take it away. >> reporter: hey, melissa, thank you so much. i am here with joe lubin, also the co-of consensus. thank you for being here what do you make recent price activity in crypto? >> if you have been watching for years over the last few months, it's clear there is so much more activity in the general blockchain ecosystem and especially the ethereum ecosystem and the prices have risen in concert and so there was so much intensity that they essentially a few weeks ago hit a bit of a blowoff top. but we're back to growing in price and the activity hasn't stopped and the cycles that we're seeing aren't in our ecosystem just because we're really crossing the chasm. this is really relevant to pop culture and the financial word right now. so the cycles are really

compressed we will see recoveries much faster. >> reporter: the downturn cycles are compressed. >> absolutely. >> reporter: volatility is what you are expect sng. >> there will be volatility because this sta fparadigm shift underway to new trust foun dags, new decentralized financial infrastructure on the planet and many things being built on top of that. what i was referring to is that we are not going to see long crypto winters we will see crypto winters that are about three weeks, maybe three months, if things get extremely overly exuberant for a while. but things are going beautifully in the ecosystem. >> i want to ask about regulations. one of the reasons we saw a revaluation of crypto broadly in the recent weeks has been due to crack youns in china and other places across the globe. how do you look at regulation? is it something that concerns you? do you feel like ethereum and ether are doing things

differently in a way they may not be subject as to as much regulation as some of your peers? >> it's philosophically aligned with free market capitalism and liberal democracies. and so when more regulators and politicians and leaders of business understand that, i think it's going to go very well for this technology with respect to regulation. the s.e.c. has developed a great understanding of the technology and they are regulating in proper issuances of securities but they are not trying to stifle innovation, and many in the s.e.c. are advocating for safe harbors or the ideas of progressive decentralization, letting innovative projects go for a little while and essentially the innovation in decentralized finance is

probably going to be able to thread the needle such that the regulations that have developed around protecting consumers from those who custody their assets are, if you design your protocol correctly, are not really going to be necessary. and so regulation is probably going to have to evolve as this new innovative technology really starts to take over. >> reporter: yeah, absolutely. mel has a question in the studio for you. >> hey, joe. thanks for suffering through the rain for this interview. we appreciate it we see you are getting wet there. i have to ask about elon musk. when elon musk announced that part of his balance sheet would be in bitcoin, that was a good thing for bitcoin. then he highlighted the energy hungry nature proof of work versus proof of sake and he was right and that really hurt the bitcoin trade at least so i'm wondering what your take is on an influencer like elon musk sort of whipsawing the market like that

>> so, first, with respect to the energy issue, i think bitcoin does have a bit of an energy issue not as big as major financial institutions and the whole financial infrastructure ethereum has a little bit of an energy issue right now, but most of the transactions are moving to layer two they get the full trust guarantees from layer one. and so our energy issues are diminishing right now and we'll go to zero pretty much in te december when ethereum, the proof of stake network, merges with ethereum one, the proof of work network, and proof of stake replaces proof of work ethereum's energy issues goes away as to elon's various vocalizations or twitterizations, he's talking his book in many cases it's nice that he's interested in our ecosystem and i invite

him to looking at the most dominant technology. >> ethereum allows for, you know, the creation and monetization of nfts, non-fungible tokens. there was a huge surge of these in the first quarter since then we have seen sales kind of dissipate. what has that meant for ethereum do you see nfts picking up soon? >> what is happening in our ecosystem is a paradigm shift to a new trust foundation, new decentralized finance infrastructure and we're seeing a few different aspects of the technology crossing the chasm. jeff moore about 30 years ago wrote a book called "crossing the chasm" which talks about technologies achieving consumer adoption and we're seeing cryptocurrencies, decentralized assets, decentralized finance and nfts crossing the chasm

tonight. the ecosystem is going to grow in fits and starts there is so much exuberance, sometimes irrational and we will have cooling periods around that but the trend is up. we are going so see higher highs and higher lows and the nft boom is still very much intact. we at consensus and a new network called palm, nft networks, that we helped stand up, we're seeing enormous corporate interest in building nft platforms and launching nfts. >> it sounds like nfts, crypto as volatile as the aspen weather here today we appreciate you hanging out in the rain and sharing your insights today joe lubin, co-founder of ethereum melissa, back to you >> leslie, thank you nfts are a big driver in terms of that recent run-up in ethereum, dan. it's sort of proof that there is a network that works and defy,

of course, a backbone. >> both of those tr themes this year that's why you have eth at 3,400. no matter what happens with nfts, the value, defi is going to be the thing that the major bulls focus on and they will focus on over a longer term period and you asked that question about proof of work to proof of stake and that's like, okay, like, all those naysayers wore bead energy and they are saying defi is not a thing, reminiscent to icos in 2017 when we had that retail frenzy, that is one the things that people will speak to a little bit, i think we are going to learn a lot about ethereum over the next few months where they have that transfer merging and seeing some of these protocols and defi really disintermediating sort of the existing established incouplements. >> maybe some of the

misperceptions about energy efficiency that joe pointed out, this new network, is that much more efficient created by some of the godfathers of crypto. to the extent some of the technology continues very quickly to meet some of the growing demands of the institutio institutionalization important point that free economies, liberal democratic economies, should be embracing this that ultimately this is a market-oriented system and that's the foundation here that is the dynamic that i think a lot of people need to understand. coming up, semis surging today. what any should you be charging into first, breaking down the banks and the one bank ceo that laidow dn the gauntlet we'll feks plain when "fast money" returns explain when "fas returns.

today. we've got a news alert on chinese ride-hailing giant didi. they have priced its ipo at $14 a share, at the high end of the expected range didi pricing for the ipo. all right. let's check out the big moves in morgan stanley and goldman sachs today. more big banks unleashing their

capital increasing dividends today but there is one ceo really laying down the gauntlet. dan, you flagged this one. you thought james gorman was the man. >> it's funny. long thought to be investment banks. they traded higher, had higher dividend increases on a relative center the money center banks traded down if you read through the press releases they sounded lame they didn't sound like they are going for it gorman is, like, we are going for it we bought e*trade the last couple of years. i mean, all the credit, you know, for them, for mapping out a different future than a lot of their competitors >> they de-risked their business when you move to a wealth management, so, you know, this is almost $6 trillion of assets. so this is to me why this is an interesting story. yes, they are in a position to give more capital. they can be more lean and mean they don't need the same balance sheet and they have a predicting

business they have made very different moves than some of their peers chls i think it's reflected in the stock's multiple it was my final trade last night. and the shackles seemingly are -- i wouldn't say they're off, but there is definitely a lot freer reign for these banks. >> not to say that goldman sachs didn't try to change its business either, guy they tried hard to go into consumer with marcus they just chose a different route. morgan stanleywanted boltons goldman sachs wanted to build out. and here we are. >> yeah. many people try, few succeed i think goldman falls under the, you know, few category, respectfully, i worked there, love the place they have gotten themselves in three different vert comes and they are getting the multiple on the back of it so we're understanding each other, it's important to point out, morgan stanley is now trading significantly north of

two times tangible book. it will be interesting to see where they report that when they report earnings. 85 in terms of price, that was a huge top in 2000, another in '07. obviously, through it now. you wonder if we do a back to that '85 level and see what it trades like. morgan stanley has definitely asserted itself and the investment banking side of things and then tim's point they are deserving of that multiple. >> more than two times book has to be one of the highest value banks on the street, karen i mean, is that warranted? does it deserve that >> i think it's somewhat of a different animal than a bank so to tim's point, more recurring revenue, that should get a higher pe multiple i am not so focused on the price tangible book like i am in some others i have more morgan stanley i have the good, the bad and i would say the ugly i'll say the handsome, which is jpm. the good is morgan stanley the bad which is citi and wells

fargo. think i on a valuation basis, those are probably the biggest updied and jpmorgan is the premier in the space. i own them all even with rates lower, if loan growth happens an interest margin will have bottomed out. >> with seeing an uptick in opt option activity. mike, what are you looking >> so fy typically trades a lot of options more than three times. calls significantly outpaced puts the most active options were this week's 20 straight calls. over 38,000 of those traded for about 92 cents buyers of those calls were, obviously, betting that the stock can recover from today's decline and some of the weakness we have seen the past couple of days we also saw bullish activity extending into the regular july

and out to august 25s as well. i would point out implied volatility rose quite substantially over the last couple of trading sessions and right now it's trading at over 100% implied volatility. that tells us that the stock could move as much as 40% the next three months or so. >> so options activity heats up in sofi. the capital shackles are off the big banks, dan what does that sound like to you possibly >> come on this a company -- it's been public one year -- one month, excuse me. it went public, de-spac'd on june 1st to talk about that range the next three months is kinda interesting. we talked about the ceo of this company, former goldman employee i think guy had it right we were talking about it earlier. i think this company gets bought by a major irk know, wall street incumbents as they try to diversify some revenue streams we talked about what morgan stanley would think about -- or what has done the last few months and i couldn't think of a

better successor to one of these handsome ceos, karen, than anthony. >> all right mike, thank you. tune into "options action" friday 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, semis soaring and posting a fresh record high. one our traders says one name is the stock to watch that is next and retail records names hitting all-time highs today. who should you be checking out with miss a moment of "stfa"? follow the "fast money" podcast. when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim even better, we listen. like jack. he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim web.

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the moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a short list of quality candidates from our resume database. claim your seventy five dollar credit, when you post your first job at indeed.com/home. tonight on cnbc catch buffett and munger, a wealth of wisdom his five decade partner share their stories of friendship, the deals they have done and what makes their company so special that's tonight on cnbc. all right. the semiconductor etf today high one of our traders says one chart in the space could tell us more about where the sector is heading. dan, what are you looking at

>> taiwanese semi. look at that green line, that horizontal line it maps to the breakout from late december and we stop there twice like to the penny as our friend carter would say here it has some good support down there, down 15% from its all-time highs made in mid-february you see it approaching that down trend there. good support in the 200-day moving average, should report earnings the next through weeks. if that breaks out it would get that smh running higher. intel has not been participating as late. >> smh, i am talking about the s&p because the smh has led qqq. so the nasdaq 100 underperformed the semiconductor index by 20% in the last calendar year, but failed to make new highs effectively from january of this years. it's been going sideways and looks like it's building that momentum we have said since the fed meeting markets are going to move higher because the signal

for megacap tech is clear and the signal for semiconductors which is rooted in cyclicality than technicals of where indices are weighted are your friends here. >> in contention for one of the most important charts of the market, guy, we started the show with where do you rank this in relationship to the other three we highlighted >> i would probably rank it fourth because that's where we are right now. no, great job by the production crew listen, dan brings up a great point. if taiwan semi started participating, smh is exposed to the upside if you want to get granular, we have talked about nvidia i think we were puzzled by the price action me 27th after earnings and we said stocks should be a lot higher that sideways action lasted a day. stock is up 20% since. raymond james put a $90,000 price target

my sense is a few weeks ago somebody will put a $1,000 price on the back of nvidia. if karen says something, she will no doubt be right and chances are if i flip a coin, i'm right once in a while, too. coming up, shopping for opportunity with a basket of retail stocks hitting fresh record highs the trades next. hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this... your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee... yeah i should've just led with that... with at&t business... you can pick the best plan for each employee and only pay for the features they need. dr. arnold t petsworth had an influx of new patients. so he used his american express business card,

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♪ me and you singing in the park ♪ ♪ me and you, we're waiting for the dark ♪ a sneak peek at the cramer cam jim is talking with the president of shopify on "mad money. sticking with retail, big names hitting record highs in today's session including nike, target and costco, which of the names would you bet on karen, i'll go to you on this. >> target for sure so i'm long, so i am betting on it i mean, they have bun a phenomenal job during the pandemic and coming out of the pandemic they used that as an opportunity to reshape their business and now the mix is getting better, more apparel, higher margin, and i think there is some of their costs will come down the only fly in the ointment is labor costs are going to go up but i think they have grabbed smarkt share and they are doing a great job and they will keep that market share.

back to the stronger dollar, they are an entirely u.s. business they source from outside the u.s., that's better for them but all that having been said their success hasn't led to a crazy valuation. the multiple is still below 20 so target. that's my favorite. >> guy >> i agree with her 100% on target but i'll take door number two and say dollar gen which has been a monster if you look at. it's getting off the mat they report in seattle valuations are reasonable. the stock had the sell-off i throw nike in as well in terms of the last quarter. it was an extraordinary quarter. i mean, their inventories are under control, their margins are improving, it's in a new range through that 148 level so i think nike is a monster as well. >> okay. i like how you did door number two and it was completely off the board. i will let that go >> you know. >> and he stole door number three. it is nike and so again north american

comps up 32%, margin improvement 450 a share makes this not as expensive as it was a month ago and the price action after those earnings, despite 13% and consolidate, if anything, the technical folks would, maybe you call that a flagpole of sorts. there is an opportunity for the valuation of this company to be something you can get excited about for the first time in a while. >> nike does -- you like to look at those charts, dan so when you look at nike and you see it move even higher off of that big spike, that's a good sign. >> that move last week in nike was one of the most astounding moves in a long time not like a good quarter wasn't expected it was a transformative sort of thing. i don't know if you could buy it on a spike like that you would like to consolidate somewhere. buth sryt atto is humming. up next, final trades.

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creamy premium ice cream and chasing fireflies. don't worry about me. i'm fine. you can't beat turkey hill memories. time for the final trade around the horn. guy? >> i love phil lebeau giving me the business that was tremendous.

i love phil, number one. i also love jack dorsey, i mean, he is two ceos in one and he crushes on both. twitter and the earnings on july 22nd >> karen >> yeah, so we talked about it target what do you do when a stock runs up so much do you buy it? if you don't own it, buy some, like a quarter position. you will probably get a chance to buy it cheaper. maybe not. buy some. >> tim. >> we talked about china's didi coming into the top end. range. rideshare and the $65 billion valuation effectively. if this pbook was oversubscribe by u.s. investors i have to be buying baba. the headwinds against baba is big brother and that's the dynamic you have to accept is on your side also at didi alibaba, i think she breaks

higher >> dan. >> on guy's twitter call, tom brady is talking crypto. yesterday we had sean carter with jack dorsey on a twitter space. that's on fire i like sofi last week 21.5 i like it here. >> see you tomorrow. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now xxxx i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica i am just trying to make money my job entertain, education, teach, context, call me 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer what's the best way to invest in the stock market one way is t