it is 5:00 a.m. in new york. here is your top five at 5:00. stocks set to kickoff the second half of the year strong. we will tell you how the big year gains compare to years past. the ipo train keeping rolling. investors licking their chops. and the key opec meeting on oil today. tough talk from china's president saying they won't be pushed around and making a veiled threat about taiwan.

and it's a bird. it's a plane no, it's just your usual run of the mill flying car and it's airborne and trending. of course it is on this thursday, july 1st this is "worldwide exchange. how is that for cool video to kick off july? good morning, good afternoon, good evening welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching. i'm brian sullivan we kickoff july. here is how it looks to start the second half of the year. hard to believe we're here already. wow. time is like that car. flying well, guess what futures are flying as well they are nicely higher dow futures up 130 nasdaq up 24 check out this, dare we say, random but interesting stat.

the dow rose .60%. had it risen .1% more, it would have kept its monthly win streak going. it broke the win streak by .9% could not get one more buyer weekly jobless claims today. the market mover for oil is opec opec meeting today with russia and others where they can finally start to say they will be adding new oil to the market. we should know by 10:00 a.m. new york time. it could drag on later given it is virtual and it is opec. we will be covering that owepec decision here on cnbc. as soon as we know the production call, you will know as well. the expectation is for an add of 500,000 barrels per day starting

in august. that is the early opec scuttle you never know what they do until they do it there is the set up around the world. lower session in asia. kospi was down .50%. the euro trade what is the euro trade the early trade in europe, he said how about that we are higher across the board kicking off the second half strong as well solid gains across the averages. we will get back to the markets and your money in a moment right now, the top headlines bertha coombs is here with more on the tough talk from china's xi jinping bertha, good morning >> good morning, brian xi jinping offering tough words on his country's resolve to stand up to foreign pressures. xi laying out the remarks at the celebration of the ruling communist party.

xi saying they will not accept sanc sanctimony preaching the remarks coming amid joint military exercises with u.s. and japan over rising tensions with china and taiwan. shares of didi closing up 1% yesterday after spiking 29% at one point. the stock closing at $14.14. it gave it a market cap of $67.8 billion. the biggest u.s. ipo of the decade didi shares up 9.4% in the pre-market it is krispy kreme's turn today. raising $500 million of the ipo. pricing shares at $17 a piece. that is below the $21 to $24 range it set earlier

crkrispy kreme's ceo will have more on this coming up on "squawk box. brian, that company coming amid the busiest week for ipo with 20 entering the market. busiest since 2000 the last time krispy kreme i ipo'd. >> we were upstairs with the tiny rooms are these giving you flashbacks, bertha >> reporter: the sock puppet kids, if you are too young, google it. >> i remember krispy kreme the air in the middle of the doughnut when you bit in that might have been the market

top. crkrispy kreme coming back bertha, thank you. speaking of back let's get back to the markets. kicking off a new quarter and half to the trading year we are getting a fresh look at inves inves investor insights. look at the snazzy graphics. 68% for financials 55% for tech 55% for energy you get to pick the top three. we are joined by christina hooper christina, good to see you on kicking off the second half of the year our investors are optimistic going forward. are you? >> absolutely, brian this is a very supportive environment for risk assets.

i think we're likely to see cyclicals out perform the back half of the year i think we will see broader participation as we have seen recently this is an environmentin which we have pent-up demand we have elevated household savings. we have adequate fiscal stimulus which we did not get in the global financial crisis. it paints a picture of the strong economic reopening. we will see increased cap spending and that creates an environment that fuels positive sentiment for stocks. >> do you believe capital spending and how much companies spend on growth and buying gear and people will grow because everybody literally and figuratively got locked down last year? >> absolutely. what tends to be predictive of future cap ex spending is past

cap ex spending. we saw that after the global financial crisis we will see something similar this year and in early 2022 and beyond just because companies recognize they haven't spent as much and need to make a bigger investment there is the other catalyst which is labor market scarcity we have seen anecdotal information in the beige book. companies are spending more, particularly on technology, to compente for srcing labor. there are a number of catalysts at play. we will see an increase in cap ex spending. >> part of the stock survey is what is the worry going forward? i understand the delta and indian variant of covid. as i tweeted yesterday, morgan

stanley noted that mrna vaccines are going well against the variants there is hope against the scary headlines. our response to the survey, kristina, they did not put pandemic as number one it was inflation by far. would you agree as far as risks go >> i think so. certainly high inflation is a concern or in particular over the next year and not so much actual fed tightening, but anticipation of fed tightening having said that, i do think that investors should be concerned about the potential for a pandemic resurgence. we know economies like the u.s. are likely to go unscathed with the spread of the delta variant because of the high level of vaccinations something we are seeing in the uk with the delta variant spreading, but not an impact

with the hospitals or deaths which is great news. there is always a potential, especially the longer we go without inoculating emerging markets, that some variant forms that it is not protected by existing vaccines. that is where we have the worst-case scenario. not dissimilar to the first wave it will not do as much economic damage, but it will do damage. >> kristina hooper, thank you. we will talk to you soon happy fourth of july in a couple of days. >> happy fourth of july. thank you. >> thank you very much when we come back, more on your money for the second half of the year. that includes your morning rbi with the good news and maybe the bad news of what to expect. plus, the morning's big money movers and big moves by

the oil industry's key players what chevron is looking to do. and a federal judge with a blow to spacex and the fight with the department of jtiusce dow futures are up 92 and we are back right after this. this is dr. arnold t. petsworth, he's the owner of petsworth vetworld. business was steady, but then an influx of new four-legged friends changed everything. dr. petsworth welcomed these new patients. the only problem? more appointments meant he needed more space. that's when dr. petsworth turned to his american express business card, which offers spending potential that's built for his changing business needs. he used his card to furnish a new exam room and everyone was happy. get the card built for business. by american express.

time for the big money movers of the morning. today, we have a bonus four stock stories today that's what we do. stock number one micron shares lower. reporting better than expected

third quarter results. it is projecting fourth quarter revenue above estimates. selling a plan to utah and texas instruments for $1.5 billion stock two is curevac a final trial shows the covid vaccine is only 48% effective. the efficacy is better at 53% when you exclude people over the age of 60. stock three. chevron. cnbc confirmed early reports that the company is looking to sell off texas oil fields. the deal or deals could be valued at more than $1 billion this follows news two weeks ago that chef isshell is looking top out of the permian basin now shell is looking to get into the business can exxon and

royal. big news by chevron. coming up on "worldwide exchange." charges formally filed against the trump administration and one of its top officials over alleged tax crimes. plus, police arresting the tour de france fans who i diotic sign holding led to one of the biggest bike wrecks in history you may not believe it stick around

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welcome back let's get a check of the top headlines. including charges against former president trump's company and individuals. frances rivera is in new york with those good morning, frances. >> good morning. the company is in jeopardy today. the manhattan district attorney's office and attorney general's office have indictments against the trump organization and allen weiselberg last week, an attorney for the trumps called the impending charges outrageous they were pursued because weiselberg did not cooperate with investigators. and britney spears has a request to remove her father as the conservator over her estate. spears detailed the abuse in the financial grip over her life

according to her lawyers, she is afraid of her father and refused to perform as long as he is in charge he has raised concern with jody montgomery, the other conservator who oversaw personal and medical treatment. and yale university said it received a donation so big, it will cover current and future drama students david geffen with $150 million the school also said it will rename the school of drama as the david geffen the school of drama. you think they would throw that in with the $150 million price tag on there >> you think that might get you a building listen, a great gift by david geffen i think yale's endowment is over

$35 billion. they were hanging on by a thread, frances. >> the students going tuition free great. >> tuition free sounds pretty good frances rivera, thank you very much >> sure thing. a very expensive line of code and an arrest in the tour de france pileup and the coolest video of the day with flying cars bertha coombs is here with the trending stories bertha, let's do it. >> we have been dreaming about flying cars since we were kids let's update the story yesterday regarding the nft of the source code the code sold at auction for $5.4 million proceeds from the sale which includes a 30-minute representation of the code written, will go to a charity of choice and to cover the costs of the carbon offset for the

minting and transaction cost of the sale the woman who caused a massive crash during the tour de france has been arrested the pileup happened an after one rider hit her cardboard sign which the woman was holding on the side of the road she could face up to two years in prison and a fine of $35,000. that was a spectacular crash. the future has finally arrived. the first test flight of the flying car between airports has been successfully completed. the company behind the car flew between two cities in slovakia for 35 minutes the car has hours of test flights and reached 1181 miles per hour that would certainly help the commute to the beach, brian. if you could just fly out in your own car >> it's amazing video.

my question is where do the wings go it is a car. you can see that if we go back to the video, it has wings. unless you are a helicopter, you need those you are driving down the garden state parkway. where are the wings? in the trunk or are you taking up all three lanes of traffic watch out. >> it looks like a plane that's a car. that probably is not meant to really drive it is still not quite "the jetsons. >> a woman in france wanted that you don't want to see anybody go to jail. the sign said something like -- hi, grandpa. >> i don't think that was her intent >> she fled. >> they had a protest yesterday.

they let people get far too close. as you see it is dangerous. some people's tour ended with that >> i guess we are truly finally back to normal bertha coombs, thank you see you in a few minutes coming up, boeing going all-in on ge with the big new hire for the cfo job speaking of big, dow futures up 86 points. a gentle nudge follow our podcast check it out every day we appreciate the reviews. we have a 4.6 or 4.7 somebody had a one-star review by the way, check out the podcast. we do appreciate it. we're back right after this.

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kicking off july strong. futures surging for the second half of the year oil in focus opec meets and starts to put more crude oil on the market jeff curry is here the gap saying au revoir to europe it is looking to cut and adjust to the new normal. it is thursday, july 1st this is "worldwide exchange.

welcome or well come back. 5:26 on the east coast thanks for joining us you. it is looking pretty good to kickoff the second half of the year we are seeing futures up a bit dow futures up 100 nasdaq has come off positive dow futures were up 100 points the jobless claims, weekly numbers, ahead of the numbers for employment tomorrow. that will be the driver. all of the eyes on the questfed. as good as it has been, here is something that is also random, but interesting. it is the 15th best start to the year for the s&p 500

hard to believe given we're up 15%. if you, tonight, want to wow your friends with your market knowledge mastery, tell them that the best start to a year was a 58% surge back in 1933 if you care and if you don't, we will give them to you. here are the rest of the top four 1975, s&p rose 39% '43, 26% 1 1987, 25%. there we are at 14.4%. you were feeling good about it until it was the 15th best start. not terrible speaking of down, bond yields are flat to going down from the highs in march we are seeing the benchmark 10-year under 1.5% the latest cnbc stock report posing a question on bonds we

have been asking a lot on the show where the yield on the 10-year will be by the end of the year a pretty even split. 48% surveyed say above 2%. 48% say near current level suddenly everybody coming down in the estimate. 3% below 1.5%. by the way, if i answered that survey, i did not. if i did, i would make it 4% because i think we might be below 1.5% we haven't talked about it lately we probably should the vix index. the fear gauge, continues to come down. a lot of scurry headlines out there. pandemic raging in parts of the world. cases, thankfully, continuing to come down here along with hospitals and with some of the variants we are he seeing the vix at 15.5%. that is a one-year low on that fear measure there is a big move in the

c-suite by boeing which is going all-in on the executive. bertha is back with that and more headlines >> brian, boeing has named brian west as the next chief financial officer. west is a veteran of general electric he will succeed greg smith who is retiring after serving as cfo for the decade he takes over august 27th. he previously worked with his new boss, david calhoun at boeing, at ge and knnielson. he will be tasked with getting the company out of the pandemic. a federal judge ruled that elon musk's spacex must comply with the subpoena over hiring records. this is the latest chapter over whether the company discriminates against applicants

based on citizenship status. spacex, which did not respond to cnbc's request for comment, has three weeks to comply with the ruling. and the gap is scaling back in europe. closing all brick and mortar stores in the uk and ireland and shifting online only the gap is in talks to sell stores in italy and france brian, the company says it is working to find more cost effective ways to maintain the presence and serve customers in purpose. this comes as they are launching the yeezy line fans of that will have to wait more and wait to get it through the post >> i have one question about the yeezy line what is it >> the yeezy line is the collaboration with kanye west. it is highly anticipated

>> oh, yeezy i thought you said easy. is this athleisure loose fitting? >> no, no. yeezy. i was going to say, where have you been, brian? you are on top of all of the trends >> i'm getting old, bertha >> aren't we all >> i'm listening to styx tracks in my camaro i will say this. becky quick is one day older than i am. i know this, becky quick will always be one day older than i am bertha coombs -- happy early birthday to becky. i'm in trouble now a dud from didi and high hopes for dough from doughnuts leslie picker is coming up in a moment

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comcast business powering possibilities. welcome or welcome back. 5:35 on the east coast the dow laggards apple is down .08% strong for most of the components apple is one that disappointed

not so for microsoft surging. joining a $2 trillion market cap club as well intel down slightly this morning. the gainers side we are seeing dow futures up 101 points the s&p laggards as well that is this morning no real huge moves s&p up 14.5% so far this year. very good start to the year. as we showed you earlier, this is the 15th best start to the year hard to believe. by the way, is your morning rbi coming up in a moment? i have more on what history says in fact, why don't we do it now? shall we today's rbi is both good news and bad news whenever you get the question, which one do you want first? i think you want the bad news first, of course, right? the news comes via lpl financial and great market stats to help you the rest of the year the third quarter, the one we

just started today is historically the worst quarter of the year for the s&p 500. now it does rise, but it has an average gain going back to 1950 of less than 1%. less than a quarter of the gain for the historically best quarter of the year. that is, of course, the fourth quarter. so, according to lpl, do not expect much for the markets the next couple of months, so says history. now you want the good news here it is when the s&p 500 is up more than 12.5% in the first six months of the year, like this year, it tends to be a really, really did sign for the rest of the year. lpl found in the 17 pre-times we have gained more than 12.5% by july 1st the index rose the rest of the year 75% of the time with a median gain of just under 10% for the rest of the year

that is nearly double what we normally gain. okay you think, sully, i just woke up i haven't had a cup of coffee yet. you are throwing a lot of numbers at me. i get it here is the keep it simple take. history says based on the first half of the year, we could have a nice, big second half of the year the next couple of months, july and august, could be choppy. stay focused random, hopefully relevant. perfect segue to your next guest. emily is here with me. history is on our side emily, are you bullish for the second half of the year? >> i am bullish for the second half of the year primarily

because i'm very positive on the american consumer. as i think you know consumer spending is 70% of the gdp the typical american is going to go nuts post-pandemic. i think there's a really strong desire to go out and experience life after cooped up for a very long period of time and i think the savings rate we have seen for american consumers has been substantial and there's a lot of money in their pockets we have seen spending on consumer goods rise 20% before the pandemic started i think that is a positive indicator. >> i think you are right listen, it is anecdotal. i tried to go to a mall in new jersey a couple of weeks ago i gave up because i was too lazy to park as far as i had to, emily. it was also 100 degrees and

people wanted to do something with air conditioning. it was mind blowing. let's talk about the individual ideas. maybe not a surprise of the year spotify taking on amazon now everybody is looking for the next shopify you identified a company called big commerce i heard the name don't know about them. who are they why do you like them >> first of all, i should say we are not necessarily stock pickers. we are believers in long-term asset allocation and sticking to strategy that being said, we are always looking for the next company that is going to be a breakout i think commerce is a shopify competitor i'm a fan of the management team the ceo was a partner of mine at mckenzie that management team is not going to fail. they established a partnership

with walmart this year and has been growing i think they are on fire the ipo -- the group of companies that ipo in 2020 and got caught up with the retail trading frenzy it hit the high 160s and fallen by half. it is a good opportunity for, you know, for a five-year plus hold i'm really excited about their prospects. they will be the next shopify. >> okay. big commerce there i know you are not necessarily a straight stock picker. there are companies you identify through macro trends listen, emily, we are coming out of the pandemic. the prediction i made in december is there is a lot of bad stuff out there even when covid is gone. we have diseases we will have to solve with bio-tech and others a company called schroedinger.

a software company helping out sdgr that is another company you like not a trade. not a trader, but a long-term structure hold >> yes i would put schrodinger in the disruptive software. this is the company that was backed early on by bill gates and the gates foundation bought shares as recently as february investors were disappointed with the guidance in march. stock has fallen from the high substantially. this is a company that investing very aggressively in r & d they have arrangements with 20 of the top pharma companies. they developed a model for identifying new molecules which is going to really propel the

bio-tech industry and drug discovery in general >> yeah, sdgr. it has had a tough year, but you want to buy on the lower side. a structural long-term play there and commerce bullish on the markets and u.s. consumer emily bowersock. kicking off the second half of the year >> thank you >> looking forward to seeing everybody around the table soon. emily, thank you very much. on deck, leslie picker is here to layout a big week for ipos we have a lot and a lot more to come. as we head to break, what some of you believe are the biggest risks to the market ahead. it's not the pandemic. cases and hospitalizations continue to crash around the country. here it is according to the survey, 42% say inflation. 21% say a fed taper. let's add those together

63%. 27% saying covid resurgence. 9% of you are worried about rampant retail speculation as a macro market risk. dow futures up 100 a bk tk oswereactoalip next.

despite huge hopes for a stock surge, shares of ride sharing didi is a dud in the ipo. this other one involving big dough over doughnuts we have more in the ipo market which turned up. we have leslie picker with more. didi was that mean? it wasn't a dud, but not a boom that people thought. >> right it did well when it first came out. up 29% then over the course of the day, we tend to see this from time to time it wound up ticking down closing

over 1%. didi is one of a bunch of ipos this week. 17 deals this is the busiest week since 2006 didi is the largest ipo amid the cohort the chinese ride sharing giant raised $4 billion in the deal after spiking 29% with shares closing over 1% of the ipo price. that gives them a market cap of $68 billion as of yesterday's trading. you talked about this, brian krispy kreme the doughnut maker raising $500 million. selling more shares, but priced below the market range ipo price of $17 per share the valuation is $2.7 billion. that is twice the price from the purchase five years ago. nonetheless, the top line growth of 15% and lack of profitability

and combined with the broader trend to healthy eating made them balk at the price exchange. it will be listed as dntd. these come amid record-breaking second quarter 113 deals listed in q2 making it the most active, brian, since 2000. $40 billion. recent ipos have been bit up rebounding to the s&p since may. more on the way in the pipeline. duolingo and outbrain filing with more on the rings with robinhood and sweetgreen and warby parker the market is not slowing down any time soon, brian >> i have a couple of questions. number one why do we see the big rush of offering bored bankers are still working?

is there any indication the legal troubles may have hurt interest or demand for robinhood? it does not appear so. >> that's a good question. with these things, it is good to have a number put on it. $70 million is one of the things investors will say we know what it is. it takes away the uncertainty. we can model what we want to pay for the company. that is the situation with robinhood. as for why this is happening now? you saw the out performance of the recent ipos. that gets more ipos and investors are feeling good and the previous investments they may be willing to buy more. typically the window closes when you see under performance. i don't know if didi was a huge success for investors who bought in when you see people losing money, that is when the window closes there could be a tendency to take advantage of the lower

capital gains rates as well. >> leslie picker with the ipo market and doughnuts on the way. leslie, great to see you thank you. >> thank you good to see you. all right. today is a big day for oil and gas. opec and opec plus are meeting virtually to talk about future production opec seems to hold all of the cards. oil prices doubled in the last nine months. the world is watching and waiting for output increase from the group. they cut 2 million barrels a day during the pandemic. and given the surge in global demanded, is that pricing at $80 a barrel or more

we have goldman sachs' jeff currie what is the heexpectation today? >> we are in view with the 500,000 per day. is that enough resounding no. during the month of june, we estimate that the market was in a 2.3 million barrel per day deficit. that's the biggest since last summer which is representative of the surge in demand you referred demand is surging for the summer travel season. drilling was down last week in the u.s. it is not enough to decline the rates. 29% of opec cannot reach quota because of lack of investment. that really leaves core opec and gcc countries as the only game in town. >> that is a really, really interesting point you made, jeff we talk about adding more

barrels to the market. it sounds like because of lack of investment, there may be nations, not saudi arabia or russia, but other opec members that simply, it sounds like can't or can't add much? >> exactly you know, go back to it. negative oil prices a year ago that created a sharp decline in cap ex that multiplied what happened with pre-covid you look at shale oil patch in the u.s. it hasn't seen growth in investment since third quarter of 2018. that's a long time ago the lack of investment going into covid negative oil prices and massive drop in investment now we're beginning to see the lack of investment at the same time demand is growing it is creating a tight market and inconvventories are low as o

into the peak summer travel season. >> what are you seeing in global demand the questions about the delta variant in latin america and australia back on lockdowns. what is the estimate for the rest of the year >> the core of this is the recovery taking place in the developed markets. in the u.s., domestic jet is back up to pretty much pre-covid levels that is not with international travel we have delta variant in europe. it slows progress there. we will have slow recovery in europe and china is back up above pre-covid. on net, we estimate that global oil demand is right at 97.5 million barrels per day. that is against 100 million per day pre-covid level. that is a jump from just 95

million barrels per day several weeks ago. that is an indication of just how fast demand is surging which is our base case which is $80 barrel average price in q3 >> looking at recent note about opec production. also a must read thank you very much for that you look at demand you look at iran, jeff a lot of people say once the iranian barrels hit the market, that will change the game. your note notes that iran coming back online, could hit 1 million to the market. if it hits the deficit of 2.2, it doesn't sound like iran is enough to really change supply demand and likely not change prices that much >> yeah. if you go back to six months ago and you asked us and the market the view the u.s. shale patch would have

higher rate counts particularly at $75 a barrel. would have iran and surge in shale that was likely to accommodate the rise in demand there is a high problem abilityt we don't get iran with the iaea inspectors we don't have enoughrate count to get the shale the only thing you can bank on is 300,000 barrels a day with shale year end we have demand surging another $2.2 2.2 million barrels a day. you have to rely on core opec and russia and the core group as the potential ability to deliver that supply increase otherwise, inconvventories dropd prices spike. >> opec plus is opec plus

russia jeff, they want market share they are not concerned about price. they want to pump. >> they want to pump also they have an election coming up and they will be worried about inflationary pressure i think in terms of the ability to do this unilaterally, they can add what they want on it the view we have taken, once demand begins to surge year end, we need all that supply out there as much as you can our base case is we have saudi arabia by early next year back up into the 9.5 million to 10 million barrels a day range. we expect to see the supply come on market. you need it to curtail any significant upside surges. our base case is the supply comes online as we go into year end. the question is the timing of it relative to the rise of demand >> we'll find out later on

today. generally the decision comes down around 11:00 a.m. eastern time you never know jeff currie, we appreciate it. we'll see you again. we'll cover that opec meeting today to see if more barrels come on the market or tighter and price goes up. that is it for us on "worldwide exchange." a lot coming up on "squawk box." i'm off the show tomorrow and on vee noon show. ha a great day "squawk" is next

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good morning welcome to july. ready for the first trading day of the third quarter we have the market score chart

we talked about yesterday. breaking overnight xi jinping said anyone attempting to bully china, in his words, would find themselves on a collision course with the great wall of steel. we go live to beijing. cue the doughnut counter sorkin, we have the first interview with the ceo before the first trade. a record nine it needs to be ten >> i don't think he has ever done double digits. >> guy who eats hot dogs joey chestnut? >> yes very good. >> it is july 1st, 2021. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk