you'll be happy if you do. the final trade for today, thermo fisher, excellent medical company. good valuation and breaking out of a several month-long consolidation. they'll do well regardless of whether there's a pandemic on or not. >> jenny, gentlemen, thank you for putting up with me today fun to spend an hour thank you for watching that does it for "halftime." "the exchange" begins right now. >> thank you, tyler. hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. it's s the u.s. on a collision course with china? president xi directing a fiery speech directed in part at the u.s. what it means for doing business and investing in china and taken to the woodshed. lumber prices chopped in half since their wood peak. why it's happening and what it says about inflation robinhood wants you to use robinhood to buy robinhood

stock. and doughnuts. we begin with the second half of the year christina has the numbers. >> stocks continue to reach new record levels today. the move after the major indices closed out a strong second quarter and a first strong half of the year. why? you have central bank liquidity, fiscal stimulus, vaccines, reopening momentum outsized earnings surprises all contribute to this bullish narrative with only -- bullish across the board but the nasdaq trending a little lower. the s&p 500 has now rallied at least 5% in each of the last five quarters. that's the best quarterly streak since the year elvis started his musical career in 1954 on a sector basis, energy is the best performance today followed by materials and health care tech more specifically, semis. the biggest underperformer, not by much. 0.37%. so all of that, tons of all-time highs across the border, too 24 out of the s&p 500 that actually hit 52-week highs

nvidia, nike, accenture have all hit all-time highs since their actual ipos. definitely a lot of strong movement today across the board. >> speaking of strong movement, an elvis reference in there. >> i'm all shook up. >> thank you so much fade the herd or follow it as we kick off the first trading day of the second half the latest quarterly stock survey shows 67% of respondents say financials will be one of the best performing sectors. 55% are betting on both tech and energy so let's drill down on some of the most attractive names across those sectors. joining me is the chief investment officer for equities at federated hermes. great to see you . >> likewise, kelly >> do you agree with what respondents are saying that these sectors are very attractive for the second half of the year? >> absolutely. the economy is roaring, kelly. we think probably 11% nominal

gdp this year. probably 8 nominal gdp next year earnings are exploding to the upside we've been raising our numbers all year for this year and next. so cyclical stocks had a nice pullback depending on the stock between 8% and 12% in the second quarter. we think they're really set up for a big rush with fundamentals going into earnings season the numbers will be blowouts the guidance going to be more confident. so we absolutely like the cyclical spaces. energy, financials, the commodity stocks for sure. and even some of the chip stocks which are getting hit today. the auto stocks aren't doing well today also in those stocks here. >> a quick follow-up as we mentioned so many people like financials and energy and tech discipline that herd consensus

worry you? the last time we saw a consensus trade was the very moment that it started reversing >> yeah, well, you know what beware the herd at extremes. and right now if i look at valuations -- first of all, not an extreme i've had to pull back to support levels in all these names. we've washed out a lot of the traders. we've been in these stocks since last september, but we think they have another big rush in them they've had a pullback valuationwise, these are the cheapest stocks in the market. we're not at an extreme by any means and we're not at peak economic activity either so we think it's way too early to fade this trade i also think rates are heading higher the treasury surprising a lot of people that it's not gone higher but, boy, it's really held 150 like a block of cement we've got it at 2 1/2 by the end of the year. there's just no way treasury rates, ten years can stay at

these levels with this kind of economic growth. and look at the price pressures. >> sure. >> just going to start again and when they, do rates are going up >> let's dig into some of the names in particular that you think can do well. so as opposed to people just buying a sector etf that may be more sensitive to swings in interest rates some individual names can separate themselves from the pack chips like you micron and autos, gm and volkswagen and commodities, cleveland cliffs and the banks, jpmorgan. and in energy, want to finish on schlumberger and especially exxonmobil are you worried about exxonmobil not being as strong an investment in the post engine number one world or is that part of the reason that you like it >> we've been in it before earlier. we have been it for actually the back half of last year so when the yield was over 10. but we thought, you know, the proxy activity was actually positive for exxon it's part of our thesis that

they've just got to stop drilling holes in the ground and that's what we see happening over the next five years their assets are in the ground they'll be pumping them out at much higher prices oil going to 90 by the end of the year i think the big surprise is we'll hold high 80s, 90s levels, i think, for most of next year so their assets are in the ground give us back the cash. that's the program exxon is finally on so we still like that stock. but if you want a little more data, frankly othe oil space, we'd go with a schlumberger or halliburton, where we're also long, obviously. >> let me ask something that ties this all together when we're talking about oil staying at $80 or $90. the last time it went up to $100 was right before the financial crisis that obviously portended doom more than it portended a strong period of investment returns that was over ten years ago. so maybe, you know, in real terms were well below those

levels is ail at 80 or 90 going to act as a break on the economy? it's the only part and it acts as a tax on consumers. is all that tax going to go into them buying gas for their cars or paying fuel bills. >> the u.s. economy is much less sensitive to energy prices than it was when i started my career 40 years ago and, you know, it's just not as important. remember, we're also a big oil producer so there's a winner and a gainer in oil going up. but then the u.s. economic activity is roughly neutral to oil itself the prices going up is part of the inflation story. and it's one reason we think the fed is at risk here of falling behind the curve but some of that oil price inflation is going to bleed through, wage inflation and then broader price inflation. we're seeing that already.

but in the meantime, right at the epicenter are these energy companies, and, you know, one of the lessons i've learned over the years. don't fight the last war that's what everyone tends to do right now the fed is fighting the last war they hike too soon in '09. they'll keep the pedal to the metal. we saw it with the saudis today with russia. you know, let's not try to drive out and raise, you know, production too quickly and try to drive out the techs and so they're holding back surprisingly to some, not to us. they'd rather see the price rise here and the shale guys are much more controlled this time around they're fighting the last war which was don't ramp up production too quickly so we think the outlook is actually pretty positive on the energy front >> opec's biggest ally is the esg cartel, if you want to call

it that. >> i didn't say that >> i know, i did >> steve off with federated hermes let's turn to lumber which has been collapsing lately here's an interesting spin on it has it been another victim of meme mania the lumber trade exploded earlier this year hitting a high of $1700 just to collapse from may more than 40% to near $700 we're at $715 right now. we just posted the first negative first half for lumber since 2015 our next guest joined us earlier this month and said all indications pointed to a retest of the lows and that's what's taken place. what does he see how kyle little is the chief operating officer at sherwood lumber what do you think? is this price correction more than you anticipated where do we go from here >> thank you for having me again. great to be back i think in all measurable things, we started essentially here at the beginning of the year it's probably a little what we'd

deem overcooked at this point. when you had a price move and velocity that we had before, we moved to the high end was an overshoot as well. so right now, no doubt that this pullback has been voracious, it's been ugly for a lot of people in the industry but also on the other side of the equation for the developers and builders it's provided a definitely breath of fresh air and a tremendous opportunity to reset for the second half. >> did that push to the highs have the hallmarks of kind of, you know, use the term meme mania but in other words, when so much of the investment landscape in that moment was concerned about inflation and seeing, you know, the price spikes in all kinds of stocks, was it fundamentals that drove lumber prices to spike that high >> i think partially kwls and partially no we were moving pre-covid to a higher high environment. and i think what we saw with that disruption in 2020, particularly in the shutdown

when everybody exited their inventory positions, mills shut ered and what have you, really created a huge imbalance between what was necessary to feed the demand just for a normal marketplace, let alone one with the surge of activity with diy and repair and remodel activity in 2020. now with what the builders did in this ramp up in sales and we caught up, which was that catch-up period why lumber needed to be purchased over that period of time and people were paying whatever price they could get. that has passed. we called that talked to everybody about that and advised our clients to be patient. unless there was an absolute need, there was not a reason to go out there and participate today. now that we've seen this pullback, any projects slated here for here in the q3 or q4, there's really no better opportunity to look at possible taking some chips off the table.

>> traders are speculating about whether we'll see a housing slowdown here. i've seen different analyst notes. i look at the stats on lumber that may and june unit sales volume was substantially lower than in the previous four months did high prices act as enough of a brake to reset the market? should we expect to pay around 715 going forward? is that still too high is it going to spike again >> based on what we're seeing in regard to the demand, here for the next 90 to 120 days, one would think that we're going to get a bounce some time very soon typically in lumber, we follow very -- the fine seasonal pattern. this year, 2021 seems to be following that much more closely. prices went through this extreme high they need to pull back to the extreme low when you go into seasonal weakness. that started when we talked the

first time now it's ending here over the next two to three weeks and we should see a measured interest in buying and refilling inventories for customers and dealers that need to go out there and purchase for the foreseeable future i'd not be surprised to see a strong bounce here in the next two to three weeks >> if you're right, that's going to catch the attention of everybody from people trying to figure out whether the growth or inflation trade will predominate in the back half of the year even to the fed watching all of these for a tell on the supply chain and on demand. kyle, appreciate you joining us as we appreciate to follow this. feels like we're doing the play-by-play almost the way we're trying to call this quarter by quarter it's really great to have you here with your analysis. kyle little of sherwood lumber president xi jinping marking the centenary of the community party with harsh threats about foreign treasure toward beijing.

we'll dig into the foreign relations with china and what the u.s. should be doing there krispy kreme shares opened at $16.30 below the $17 a share price that was set in the ipo itself and that was below the range of $21 to $24 again, from that current price now of $18.25, that's about a 7% increase we'll have more on weather investors should bite into this doughnut darling and as we head to break, let's check on yesterday's ipos in their second day of trading three of the five names on our board are in the red the gainers include clear up 19% and didi global up 16% today we're back in a moment

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wall of steel built by the flesh and blood of the 1.4 billion chinese people for more i'm joined by anya manwell, a former state department official focused on south asia policy. also mcneal, managing director at longview global and a former department of defense official focused on east asia security relations. he's also a cnbc contributor anya, i don't even know what we ask. the language is so stark i guess the question is how does the u.s. respond >> absolutely. the language is very stark but this nationalistic tone is normal for president xi. just usually an american audience doesn't pay as much attention to his speeches. this speech was designed to be reassuring for his domestic audience and a little bit worrisome for the world. it signals china is back we're not afraid we will not be bullied and he feeds right into the

increasingly nationalistic impulses that you have, especially in the younger generation of chinese. how should the u.s. respond? i think by not saying very much for now. >> but what point does that make do we just kind of sit here and go, okay, sure yeah, you can say things like that and we just nod along and you can tell us what our companies want to say about taiwan and sort of set the terms for doing business in china and, you know, this -- and we just -- do we stay silent and nod along? >> no, definitely not nod along. i think the biden administration is doing quite good job with this already when tony blinken met in alaska with his chinese counterpart there was a bispeech given like this. tony then stood up, secretary blinken stood up and said, look, here's how we see the world. you see the world differently. and they have a pretty good rhythm now they'll cooperate on a few

things we can cooperate on we'll challenge china where we need to challenge them what does all this mean for u.s. business i think the idea that there's going to be a detente and it will get much easier with the trump administration no longer in power, i think that, unfortunately is not going to be the case relations between china and the u.s. will continue to be rocky >> that's actually the point that neal ferguson makes as well in a piece for the times literary supplement where he says more or less this is a second cold war. just because the first one lasted around 40 years is no guarantee the same will be true of wolde war ii. it may be a long time. so if that's the case, what do american companies, investors, what does everybody do in the meantime >> it's a good question. i agree with anja. we do not need to sit silently and the biden administration is not doing that the g7 was an attempt to try and rally like-minded countries

around what they consider to be assertive behavior that china has been exhibiting. for western businesses, this is a tough one because we're pushing to appoint where the chinese are passing laws, the u.s. have already passed regulations. it's really going to force a business to choose between short-term profits or longer term security challenges and control from china who has made it clear there are ways in which they are open, but it's open with limits. i call this setting the edge and there's going to be very little room to run to the left or to the right of china in terms of what it considers its core interest. taiwan, xinjiang, china sea. we're going to have to figure out whether or not beijing sees the value in having u.s. and other investors helping them to continue what xi has tried to make to his people the case for earned legitimacy. we have delivered for the chinese people

you're powerful. you're rich. and that's largely because china has been open to outside engagement and investment. but if this is coming to an understand, i think china will have a rough road ahead, continuing to deliver for the chinese people >> if it comes to an end, in a way they're shooting themselves in the foot. the best scenario is to let u.s. companies contribute to their gdp. make it seem as though they have access to all the best products in the global marketplace while maintaining full political control. a lot of companies who went in there 15 years ago thinking this is an exciting moment where we can help liberalize the country. our ideas can part of soft power and help promote democracy in a soft way or at the worst might have thought we have no role to play here. are they actually playing a role in advancing the interest of the chinese communist party by playing ball over there? >> well, this is -- yeah, absolutely the chinese are going to benefit from some of this i want to turn the tables for

chinese companies as well. we just saw didi list publicly u.s. capital markets are still important for chinese companies as well. so this is not just us looking to them. china has to really consider all of its interest and, you know, didi is a perfect example. yes, hong kong is there, but hong kong has not done everything that the communist party has suggested that it would do with respect to capital markets. so the u.s. market, u.s. capital is still important to chinese development. and i'll just say that a speech that -- the speech he just gave is not doing a softer, kinder, gentler diplomacy any real favors >> anja, if they still need u.s. markets and u.s. capital, should the u.s. react in some way while we still have the leverage before the leverage is not there for us to use? >> it should, and we are there are laws coming out of the u.s. congress every day.

some around how much accounting has to be done before you list a chinese company in the u.s increasingly stringent export controls so it is getting tougher from the u.s. side as well as the chinese side i would say on the chinese markets, you have to parse it by industry if you are in the american or western tech industry, very hard to do business in china. if you're in the financial industry, much easier and they are rolling out the red carpet because they still need you. you have to parse it industry by industry >> and be aware of that, of the role you're playing as well in all of this. it's a fascinating discussion and not an easy one. guys, thank you very much today. anja manuel and dewardric. first time jobless claims fell sharply but with more than 11 million americans on unemployment benefit benefits, how do employment recruiters fill the spots. and krispy kreme going

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welcome back let's get a quick check on markets. we're starting with an 82-point gain on the dow. the s&p is up 0.3% the nasdaq slipping by 0.1%. there's been a flurry of ipos

this week. krispy kreme is going public shares of rocket builder aft ra space are up about 8% after the company closed its deal. gives them about a half a billion in new capital to build out production in hopes of launching one rocket a day by 2025 micron shares are falling despite raising guidance the ceo saw strong growth across all end markets, including pcs, handsets, cloud and autos. rising costs and demand worries about pcs are weighing on the stock down 6%. shares of etsy also lower and poised to snap an 11-day win streak after closing out their best month since november. up 25% in june powered by big acquisitions the brazilian based company. etsy shares down 3%. over to rahel solomon for the news update. >> here's what's happening at this hour. in florida, president joe biden and jill biden thanking first

responders for their efforts to find survivors in the rubble of the collapsed condo building the president introducing himself as jill's husband while greeting the group gretchen whitmer announcing a $5 million lottery to encourage people to get vaccinated daily winners and college scholarships for kids 12 to 17 mask wearing hasn't only been slowing the spread of covid. it reduces cases of other illnesses. so then what happens as more and more people hang up their mask and get back to normal we'll explain how the flu can make a comeback and former fda commissioner scott gottlieb will have the latest on the delta variant. that's tonight on "the news. robinhood's ipo filing has just come out. it gives us a lot of information about how their business actually works kate rooney is here with the details. what do we know? >> robinhood out with its s1 filing with the s.e.c. just a

few moments ago. trading has a place holder on the first page offering size of about $100 million. that figure will likely be multiple times higher when it does go public listing on the nasdaq under ticker hood. the main underwriters on this deal, the bankers, goldman sachs, jpmorgan, barclays and citigroup. financials here, robinhood did report a loss in net income in the court. $1.4 billion last quarter. revenue, though, about $522 million. for the quarter, some user numbers here a lot of interest in that. it now has 18 million net funded accounts that's up from 7 million a year ago. so about 150% increase there assets rnd management also a massive jump $80 billion in assets under management for robinhood that's up from $19 billion a year ago and kelly, interesting note on customer allocation. robinhood says they expect underwriters to reserve

approximately 20 to 35% of shares for retail traders. for robinhood customers specifically and still diving into risks and financials here. we'll bring you more headlines >> let's go over this for a moment the numbers are pretty bad in terms of the quarter we're talking about a loss of $1.4 billion versus $53 million a year earlier are there special one-off fctors in that, do you think? >> a lot of spending they've spent a ton on customer acquisition. we'll get you some of the details. but some of these high growth startups, you see that customer growth that doesn't come out of thin air. it's likely they spent a lot on customer acquisition, whether it was marketing. that is often the case with some of these high growth tech startups robinhood really is positioned more as a tech company than a brokerage firm that's why a lot of venture capital investors have flocked to robinhood because of those

user numbers they may be able to look away from the losses in the near term >> this one in particular, watching the wires here, looks like that three-month net loss of $1.5 billion was for a special situation related to maybe some debt issues in here, if i can get a fair value adjustment, convertible notes and warrant liability. sothe extent it reflects accounting issues, even if they are business related i think people would look past that the other interesting thing is, its assets under management are a little less than i would have expected assets under custody of $81 billion. monthly active users a share high of $18 million. they punch above their weight is the way i might describe it. >> it's interesting. the assets under management, the average account size for robinhood is likely smaller than other brokerage firms. interesting to compare and see if it's in the s1 in terms of

how much your average customer has maybe it's in the low thousands whereas charles schwab is typically $100,000. we'll continue to dig through it this is one of the most successful startups in recent years and has become the face of meme mania the retail revolution and all the rest of it going public tomorrow kate >> we've got a few weeks here until they go public they'll start their road show and later in july but typically three to four weeks after we get this paperwork with the s.e.c. a little time here before trading under the ticker hood. >> yes, under the hood exactly. so many ipos, we're losing track. kate rooney, thank you we'll continue to comb through those numbers. the under the radar move to boost apple tv ratings is coming up we'll also talk about chkrispy kreme's ipo. and i'll be back in a moment

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welcome back there's so much to talk about. mike sannen toly is here ina freed. it's great to have you here. let's start with apple on the roku remote because there's also a netflix button the real question is how much is apple paying for the privilege and will it move the needle for apple tv >> i think they have to do this. they have to be the places where people want to watch tv. certainly can use their own devices as a way of attracting customers. but this was clear from the moment they announced apple tv plus when they first did it they made what had been unprecedented move, making a deal with rival samsung, but an important force in tv. they want to be where people watch tv and roku is one of those places >> do they just need better

content, steve >> well, they need more content. this is a bigger win for roku than it is a loss if you will for apple. look at the numbers. apple has $54 billion in services they really need to make something happen here. i think they are willing to say we need a partner here i think the stock goes much higher from here i'm a buyer of apple i own apple. i'm not selling it >> does apple tv need to do well, mike santoli, for the shares to do well? >> i would say not really, but this does show perhaps apple's treating it as a little more of a business it's not just kind of an indulgence, an experiment, let's do it on the side. why not do it. clearly th have to make some of these compromises to make it something more >> let's move along and talk about robinhood. mike, what jumps out about what we're learning about how this company actually does business >> that the majority of the volume, the revenue and the client assets are in options and crypto currencies.

so it really isn't, at its core, a investing in stock type client base at this point that's where they are making their money. zero commission on regular common stocks. that's something to keep in mind it's not necessarily going to be the case where their revenues and assets in house grow just along with the stock market. you get that appreciation. it's going to be basically very transaction oriented also heavy marketing spend but not surprising $400 million annual rate of marketing spend, up like 40% that could probably be dialed back over time >> steve, hood, you like it? >> i heard you talk about it before it's not about revenues. it's not about making money for them just think about it. how many active users? over 18 million? even if that's falling a little short, all of those will be receptive to supporting that stock, buying that stock and being recurrent investors in that stock yes, i do like it regardless of the fact that revenues might not be there >> sure.

i mean, it's not as if 18 million is a bad number. it's just a reminder these are very different businesses. this is not facebook, it's not instagram. o it's more like a td ameritrade platform or something like that. >> the big thing is their business model and how people feel about that over the long term the free commissions are being paid for by you sharing your deal flow, your trade flow with large institutional investors. and we'll see if long-term people accept that idea. >> i can't be too tough on robinhood because krispy kreme, everyone is beating up on. it's going okay but priced below the range. it opened below that now it's traded, bounced above those levels so i did not know they owned insomnia cookies that's like -- that should get people excited >> it's a recent buy very bold diversification move into cookies but it's interesting it's a little bit under $3 billion market cap right now it's like 60% of the market cap

of wendy's now at about the same kind of price to sales ratio of wendy's. it's not that huge a business. it's kind of interesting, as a niche maybe, but is the category growing? are doughnuts growing? coffee growing restaurant brands owns tim horton's and that was struggling within that company alongside burger king. so i just think it's one of these things that's feeding off of the fumes of the accident that 20 years ago it was this crazy moonshot called stock. >> i wonder if there's still an unfair hangover on the stock being owned by jab for a few years is no louch. >> i have a different outlook. first, they'll be the only direct play doughnut play out there. and we're coming out of a pandemic i had covid, kelly i'm up ten pounds from covid you know why because you only live once right? so nobody is sitting here saying i want to count calories anymore. the economy is open. >> i totally disagree. now that it's opening back up, you have to get your swim trunks

on absolutely >> right, but everyone is still going in that hybrid mode. they're wearing stretchy pants so it allows some of that extra ten. it's going to be okay. i have a littlbit of a different outlook. i think we'll be pleasantly surprised. >> investors didn't love the losses last year as mature a company as this is already but they have a growth strategy. you can read it in the s1. finally, this one today is possibly the biggest at stake. instagram is trying to make more changes that will make it look and feel more like tiktok. their head announced instagram will start showing full-screen recommended videos saying we're no longer a square photo sharing app. he also illustrated the serious competition from tiktok and youtube. this is a huge deal. do you think they'll get it right or how much has tiktok sort of stolen their thunder here >> you know, this is facebook's

problem. every generation, every micro generation uses a different social network than their parents and the ones that came before them. instagram used to be able to keep up by acquiring companies like instagram, like whatsapp. times it would clone them or try to add features. the acquisition door is largely closed for big deals so they'll have to try to win over each of those generations. and it is tough. instagram is still their younger brand but instagram is probably now a bit old. >> as a heavy user of instagram, i have no problem if they put more videos in after you experience tiktok, instagram does feel a little bit stale. >> yeah, i can see, you know, increasing the density of video makes a lot more sense trying to be a little bit more edgy with what they deliver. i do wonder if this is a test of what's supposed to be the secret sauce of the tiktok algorithm in terms of how exactly it learns about you, whether that ai is something that's replicable, even if facebook really wants to

directly copy that as opposed to make it a little more, i don't know, curated in your own follow-up and searchable >> i like it being my own curated content. are you a buyer or seller of facebook here? >> facebook is up 28% year to date it's just trying to hold on to the older generation i always like making this actionable you. look at this one extremely light float. this one can go much higher. clear, secure. this is the one that was ipo yesterday. i bought it today. >> i think it was down so you're buying the dip here. this price point guys, thank you all. we appreciate it got through a lot today. steve grasso, mike santoli and ena fried. a 67% increase in workload from last year that's the biggest increase ever according to recruiter.com a ceo joins us in just a moment dcuss

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welcome back we've had some breaking news out of the white house covid briefing this afternoon. let's bring in meg terrell with those details. >> the cdc director saying that though case levels overall are low and have come down more than 90% since their peak in january, we are starting to see a bit of an uptick in case numbers. she's warning about the hypertransmissible delta variant. a 10% increase in the seven-day average of daily new cases now a week over week we're at an average of about 12,600 a day this is very low levels. but she's warning in communities where there are lower rates of vaccination, she says there are a thousand counties with vaccination rates under 30%. those counties are very vulnerable to increased spread delta now is the second most prevalent variant here in the united states. in the coming weeks she predicts

it will eclipse the alpha variant, the b.1.1.7. variant first identified in the uk she says it accounts for about 25% of all sequences of variants in the u.s. and in some communities as much as half of the sequences are delta. in some areas, we are starting to see surges in cases and hospitalizations, she thinks potentially because of the delta variant and low vaccination rates. as we head into the july 4th weekend, they are making a plea for everyone not yet vaccinated to consider it because it does provide protection against delta. >> what would be the next step if their concern continues to grow >> well, we believe, cnn has reported they are starting task forces to try to take on delta and potentially address the vaccination rates. that's the strongest measure that they know of, that they are emphasizing to try to keep folks out of the hospital from getting very sick from covid also potentially try to stop the spread as much as they can

otherwise, you know, we are seeing places like l.a. county reinstating mask guidance for indoors. the cdc doesn't appear to want to do that, but it's a concern >> meg, thank you very, very much meantime, recruiter.com recently started trading on the nasdaq rcrt is the ticker it shows recruiter sentiment at record highs for the second straight month joining me is the chairman and ceo evan stone sometimes we struggle to find the best anecdote in a research report not here every different line is filled with something new and sort of shocking about the state of the labor market, right? >> yeah. if we had to give a theme to this month it would be chasing candidates everybody is chasing candidates. candidate sentiment is down. that means the candidate sentiment went from 3.4 to 3.2, meaning they are interested in a new job.

employers are, for the second month in a row that we're tracking it, raising salaries. last month the re -- 40% of recruiters reported increasing salaries this past report, 50% increasing salaries yet we're still trying to find the candidates, and it's getting really, really hard to do that one of the biggest sectors of growth was actually recruiters companies hiring recruiters to -- point. we're seeing, i think, indeed was one of the ones saying they're seeing more employers using incentives to attract job candidates so where do we go from here? this is all going to roll over once we hit september and some of the issues with seasonal help lessen and we get past the additional jobless benefits? is this going to be as bad as it gets, do you think >> i really hope you are correct and i really hope that come

september kids going back to school, schools that are opening, you have to drill into why are candidates staying at home why are they not interested? are they taking the summer off are they only going back to where there will be remote work? what are the other reasons they're interested in? one thing we found, 67% -- the recruiters reported 67% did not require a college degree that's down from 71% all of a sudden let's open up the pool of people the slight you saw was actually really interesting so here we are we have this incredible talent shortage we're going to pay more for candidates, open up to a greater pool, yet while in-person stayed consistent, hybrid ticked up and remote actually ticked down. so companies are saying, hey, like, i know we're going to have to pay more for people but i still want them in the office for at least a period of time. >> do you think the people who want to stay home and aren't looking -- to me it overlays

with the millennial generation who might be raising kids. i looked at the data and once you hit 60% of parents -- once you hit 60% of parents with children working it seems to be the ceiling that we hit in the late '90s. we were back up in the middle of the 2000s. is it unsustainable and was covid an excuse for perhaps a segment of the labor force saying only one or the other will work for that to be the new normal >> yeah, i think we're seeing -- there was an article the other day about it, working mothers who are now would like to be at home, i will only take a job if it's at home if you are a candidate and last month you saw someone offering x dollars more and this month even more dollars, maybe i'll just wait around until i hit the big bucks no whammies and i'll hit the button when it happens >> with the vaccine even the longer you wait to get your

vaccine the better the prizes are getting. acting as a -- >> pretty crazy, right >> for first incentive to wait thanks for joining us. do you think this sets up for a blockbuster or a terrible jobs report because there are not enough companies able to add the people they want to add? >> look, the recruiter sentiment is still 3.8 the job numbers are up to 20 open rolls i think we'll have a strong enough i think we're a long way off before we resolve the 7 million unemployed >> a long way to go. we'll see how much progress can be made if those positions that companies want to fill aren't even being filled. thanks so much again evan stone joining us from recruiter.com. let's get a check on shares of krispy kreme up about 14% they're kind of adding to their gains. they're almost hitting 20. they're up 16% right now

we'll keep an eye and see if we can climb at the close ipos tend to pop and recede. ok, at at&t everyone gets our best deals on all smartphones. let me break it down. you got your new customers — they get our best deals. you got your existing customers — they also get our best deals. everyone. gets. the deals. questions? got it. but, why did you use a permanent marker? because i want to make sure you remember. i am going to get a new whiteboard. it's not complicated. only at&t gives everyone our best deals on every smartphone. like the samsung galaxy s21 5g for free.

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welcome back, everybody. i want to show you shares of a chinese tech company that may be under the radar to most investors in the public but not for kathy wood who is betting big on this name she purchased shares for her nextgen etf each day this week kanzhun went public. on june 11 it soared nearly 100% and nearly doubled it's a 10 cent backed company. it connects through a mobile app. there you have it if you want that exposure. that does it for "the exchange." next, the ncaa allowing athletes to cash in on their names, likeness and social media followings we'll talk to the cavendar twins about their first endorsement deal next.

- [narrator] at southern new hampshire university, we're committed to making college more affordable. that's why we're keeping our tuition the same through the year 2021. - [student] i knew snhu was the place for me when i saw how affordable it was. - [narrator] find your degree at snhu.edu. good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. along with kelly evans, i'm tyler mathison opec meets, crude prices climb is this the start of an even bigger rally and how should you

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