well, continuing its march, its bounce. >> absolutely. >> it has been a few days in a row, though. felt a little marchy april highs. on the dollar. that's going to do it for us on "closing bell. have a good evening, everyone. "fast money" begins -- >> ten seconds early >> right now it would be five now live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square this is "fast money. i'm melissa lee. mike khouw in the house, dan nathan will join us in moments tomorrow on "fast," major buzz kill for one name in the retail space today. some traders aren't quite giving up hope on it yet. we'll find out what it is and why they're so bullish and turbulence ahead, americans getting ready to take fight for the long holiday weekend top analyst hunter kay says airlines will not be able to handle the surge in demand we'll get the outlook for the industry this year a special edition of "fast money" coming up at 6:00 p.m., we're answering all your burning trading questions, so if you've got them, tweet us at cnbc "fast money," we might answer them on

the air. we start up by firing the "fast money" time machine. you might remember in december, we asked traders to pick the acronym they thought would rule in 2021. look at how they've done tim's acronym has been the strongest, that would be rise, rio tinto. that was up more than 21% so far. dan here chose abide, which would be amazon, alibaba, ipoc, the spac, clover health, disney, expedia, that's up 5%. and rounding out the acronyms, karen's, wtf, not what you think it is, walmart, tj max, fedex, up 3%. what are the themes that have worked so far this year, what is going to rule in the second half of the year. dan, i'll throw it to you. you're in a solid second place there. >> not so solid. we had the s&p 500 close up close to 15% of the year so up 5% just shows you how difficult stock picking can be at times.

i was really interested in amazon, and alibaba, really disappointing. when you think about it, that seemed like a layout for this consumer that is in great shape, both here and probably abroad, that didn't work particularly well disney reopening trade, again, it is basically flat to down a little bit on the year and then you have something like expedia which worked really well and then, you know, on the spac side, that's fits and starts here, a lot of interesting stories that do well some that don't. >> right and when we asked you guys to pick them, spacs were the hottest thing under the sun. and so that obviously has fizzled. also we had fits and starts when it comes to interest rates we had them spike higher to 1.74%, which threw a wrench in some of the tech trade here. karen, what were you thinking when you thought of -- what were you thinking, wtf at the time? do you think that's going to revive in the second half? >> well, wtf what it should have

been would be weight watchers, target and facebook. frustrating. definitely the f, fedex, i'm staying with that. i like that. so i'm sticking with that. tjx has been disappointing in the retail rally it really hasn't participated as well, primarily, you know, e-commerce has never been their thing. the treasure hunt is part of their appeal so that's been slower as reopening in person has been a little slower than i thought it would be i'm sticking with that as well the walmart had a nice run the other day. i guess i want to change there to atf, the a being alphabet and, you know, alcohol, tobacco and firearms seems somewhat catchy as well so that's where the a -- alphabet, and i think that going to talk about inflation, but the kind of trades that can do well in growing gdp, but also

potentially growing inflation, so and i think the valuation there despite it having run up is still not particularly expensive, given how extraordinary this business is >> so already you're pivoting away from walmart. >> yeah. >> tim, you benefited by having the foresight to lean into the energy trades, really lean into the reopening trade. >> well, the sense that i had and i think despite some of the on again/off again elements of the treasury bond market telling you maybe we don't have as much growth, gdp in the u.s. is going to grow 6.5% to 7% not just this year, but next year that reflation trade and even though commodity prices got well ahead of themselves and we talked about lumber and copper pulling back, i think you still have a dynamic here with both reflation and absolutely an energy prices, you know, opec this week or even today i should say is seemingly punting doing any kind of an output cut, while

the developed world, not the emerging world, not the developing world, is seeing demand that it hasn't had in a long time. that's going to continue to put it -- energy prices higher we came into this under invested into energy. i like the energy trade. i like the reflation trade, i like small cap and growth and i do think emerging markets can continue to run. >> well, we fired up the "fast money" time machine not to skewer anybody for picking a bad acronym, but to discuss the themes that worked in the first half and could continue to work in the second half of the year mike, you didn't have an acronym at the start of the year which themes do you think will continue to work >> i mean, you know, i still like the energy space. i like what tim, you know, i think i see the same things he does there i actually like a lot of the names that dan has on his list and if i was creating a new acronym now, couple of them might be on it certainly bob said, i think it is an interesting value proposition here, it is not

particularly expensive remarkable growth opportunity, amazon i don't really think i need to explain to everybody this is a company that has successfully grown into its valuation and continues to it is in all the right places. we're looking at not only top line growth, but margin growth as well. and obviously exposure in the cloud space. so i definitely like those two names. and disney, i mean, to me, what is interesting about this is that, of course, you know, the reopening trend is largely played i think we're kind of done with that that's not the thing i see with disney i look at the valuation of a company like netflix, and then i think about something like disney plus an say, okay, well, disney plus is likely growing faster than netflix is, i want to attach a higher multiple to that business than i would to netflix. and then the rest of the company begins to look pretty cheap. so i think disney, i would pick that one i like the energy space generally. i didn't spike slum berger at the beginning of the year. >> i have a new one, mel

can i do it? >> go for it. >> i missed the call earlier today. this one is like an ode to you, apes you kind of -- aren't you the queen of the apes? isn't that what's going on in the reddit amc, i think you sell it here, $28 billion market cap, the apes, that's not what they do. i don't see this thing with $11 billion in debt, they continue to raise as much money as possible, relative valuation, not going to work here that's the a p, pfizer, okay, boosters, that's going to happen we'll do that for the vaccine boosters there is your p. then exxon, i'll take the opposite side, i don't like the large integrateds here, we were talking about how they would defend their dividend and now they're making new 52-week highs. and then last one is so phi, my final trade the other day, final trade last week, we're going to talk about robinhood, i think that some of these finteches and some entrants to the market, the valuations they're getting, sofi should be -- >> to be clear, liking oil, is

not liking exxon in particular that's because, you know, they are benefitting from higher oil prices but they're not replacing their reserves they are trying to maintain their dividend, they have a huge amount of debt and you can't service the needs of all of those three things simultaneously with the cash flow they have you can either pay the dividend and pay down debt and not replace your reserves. you have to do a mixture there is a compromise there and i don't see exxon as a great investment >> yeah, tim, and tim, you are also in some integrateds, i believe, but if you wanted to play this move above 75 in crude, the more levered way is to go with names that are in oih as opposed to the big integrateds. >> yeah, i just think that the oil services is your higher beta plan, higher energy prices, they have absolutely underperformed on a linear basis to the oil price, maybe you can't extrapolate that but i can tell you that they

have massively underperformed to move in crude, which to me is a function of many things, right it is not just that we're reopening and there is more demand, it is that it was underinvested. i love schlumberger, they have the best balance sheet in the oil services they are the technology leader, i think they have showed enormous kind of capacity in capex restraint in capital discipline and at a time when i think this is still a really exciting space where there is innovation. so to me i -- some of these trends on commodities and emerging markets are things that these aren't short one year or even you know shorter trades i think we have seen long cycles, they are long cycles, it took a long time and a lot of pain to build up to a place where the fundamental switch, then you had catalysts whether it has been covid, et cetera. >> karen is raising her hand, uncharacteristic of course, karen, go ahead >> yes, let me just play devil's advocate for a moment. oil, a big headline today, but

let's look at -- we're in backwardation. june of 22, it is 67 does that, you know, to me that's not a -- the best sort of bal ballast for the oil continuing to go higher story playing devil's advocate here. >> tim >> want me to respond? >> yes. >> i think you have a case where first of all the curve didn't price in $75 oil either. i think you got a case where, look, positioning is wrong on this and the expectations that it is going to take longer for infrastructure and some of the capacity to actually be, you know, to follow through on some of the demand, i think there is also not a view that the demand we're seeing is sustainable. that's why the curve reflects that and i guess, again, the oil curve has been wrong many times. i'm not -- you're never wrong. i'm not going to accuse you of

being wrong here to me -- >> no, no. i missed the oil trade >> well, it has been -- this has all been about underinvestment and from a market perspective, it has been all about underweight. and these are companies that are not going to burn you the same way in my view because they can't. they have different capital approach, different capital efficiency >> if you believe, though, that the curve has been wrong and the curve is wrong, in terms of the future price of oil, and it would be higher than 67, then what does impact does that have on your view of the consumer >> it is -- i think it is starting to get a little worrisome for the consumer we'll see how quickly gas prices, i don't know if someone sent me a photo of gas prices, and we have that in menlo park, pretty high, right at some point that starts to eat away at the consumers' buying power.

but consistent prices that high will do it not a spike, but consistent prices so that concerns me a little bit. >> i don't think we need to worry about $5 gasoline prices in menlo park where everyone is rolling around in teslas these days probably could afford the $5 gas even if they weren't the important thing to remember about the curve and the futures market is backwardation tells you demand is outstripping supply and it is generally viewed to be a bullish signal for the underlying commodity if you look at the worst markets we have seen in crude, you'll see steep entangle markets, when the spot and near dated futures trade well under and that tells you there is oversupply. and that creates some overhang it takes a while for production to ramp. sometimes when you see the curve in backwardation, that is reflecting how much time it takes for supply to come online to service the anticipated increase in demand we're in a growing economy, demand is coming back in a big

way. and it is going to take a little while for the commodity markets to keep ace. >> let's get to robinhood here filing to go public with the s.e.c. kate rooney has the details. >> robinhood plans to list on the nasdaq under the ticker hood we got a look at the trading app's financials with the ipo paperwork earlier. for the full year, 2020, robinhood was profitable with net income of $7 million compared to a loss the year before for most recent quarter, robinhood lost $1.4 billion, i'm told due to a one time writedown on debt it issued to stay afloat during the gamestop saga they raised $3.5 billion from vc investors in convertible bonds and 30% discount, i'm told that's what's behind the quarterly loss the majority of that was transaction revenue or payment for order flow mostly. and most of it comes from options trading.

that made up about 38% of revenue, and equities about a quarter of revenue and cryptocurrencies now accounts for 17% of quarterly revenue that was up from about 3% in the same time a year ago dogecoin accounted for 34% of total crypto revenue in q1 robinhood has 18 million net funded accounts. that's 150% increase in assets -- accounts year over year assets, 80 billion, up from 19 billion ayer ago and setting aside between 20 and 35% of this offering for retail customers, but they have to be robinhood retail customers so those using robinhood's trading app. and finally, guys, the risks, the company mentions ongoing regulatory investigations, and litigation, one involves a u.s. attorney's office issuing a search warrant for the ceo's phone. they also say there are 50

punitive class actions against robinhood. they mentioned payment for order flow, risk of regulation, and stimulus checks ending and we should remind you, robinhood is a five time cnbc disrupter 50 company that topped this year's list the ceo is among the featured speakers of this year's disrupter 50 summit. you can register for that event at cnbcevents.com. back to you. >> kate, thank you. that's a long interesting list of risks there for robinhood. particularly when it comes to its business structure, majority of revenue coming from payment of order flow, bright light shown on that space at this moment in time, particularly by the s.e.c. head gary gentzler. it is an interesting business, but it benefitted from the spike in retail trading and can we replicate that in the future >> 34% of their crypto revenue from doge. doge okay here's the other thing i'm going to say this. if there is another financial company listed on the nasdaq here and a headline that there is a warrant for the ceo's

phone, how much do you think that stock would be down on that headline like, 5% or something like that's a horrible headline. there is nothing particularly great, i think, in that whole laundry list of kate's things and when i think about the options stuff, i'll let mike speak to that, we know there was a lot of new entrants to the market we know they're using money that there was givento them when they were forced to stay home. they're looking for leverage, looking for tiny three cent, ten cent, 20 cent cryptos to play. it is not sustainable. you look at the average size of the accounts they have there, it just doesn't -- it is more like a legal casino on your iphone than it is a sustainable, i think, financial services company. >> let's round up a couple of things so 18 million accounts, 20 on $80 billion in revenue, $80 billion in assets. 4,000 bucks per account? that's not too impressive.

38% of their revenue is coming from options trading i'm surprised. that strikes me as is low. in conventional brokerage space, the revenue on the options side on a per account basis are substantially higher because options expire, you need to trade them with more regularity than you do with stocks, you create a stock portfolio and oftentimes you let that sit. they don't have the assets per account obviously that is all that attractive. payment for order flow, this has been just par for the course in the options space since the 1990s and a lot of conventional brokers depend on it this is why you don't pay a commission when you click to trade and buy an option. you are paying, but it is getting paid on the back end by marketmakers essentially creating these refunds or rebates back to the people providing the order flow to me it is pretty tough we'll have to see where something like this is going to price. but account size this small,

litigation risk, and, you know, the fact they're hinged to things like dogecoin, it is not that exciting to me, i are to say. >> we should thank elon musk we cannot assure similar events referring to what happened in january with gamestop and the emergency funding it had to seek, we cannot assure that similar events will not occur in the future karen finerman, is robinhood an attractive investment to you >> to me, no, for, you know, as the guys laid out all the reasons. that sounds more sort of boiler plate to me, the last one you just said, than the warrant for the phone, that kind of thing. it is interesting to me, every ip o ipo has a little bit of risk that are boiler plate and some that are more concerning this is just chock full of them to me. i think they want to get it through as quickly as possible is my guess. would you really want to file this with all this in there if you thought it is going to be cleaned up in short order?

i wouldn't so i'm just thinking, you know, this is as good as it is going to get, let's try to get it through at any price and i'm wondering, coin base, was it the actual day of, you would remember this, was it the actual day coin base went public, the peak of bitcoin? >> close to. we asked that very question on the show, is this -- dare we say, dare we ask, is this going to be the peak for bitcoin >> and i wonder is this the peak for the gamestops and amcs of the world, the day that robinhood goes public. i think also the traders on robinhood, don't they get a little bit of stock if they give referrals and people open new robinhood accounts, they get a little robinhood stock someone at me if that's not correct. there will be sellers of that stock as well, i imagine >> all right coming up, auto stocks on the move today as companies report q2 auto sales. the calm before the storm during a storm. there is a live look at newark international airport as passengers start taking off for

the holiday weekend. the top airline analyst will join us to help navigate the friendly skies don't go anywhere. "fast money" iba itw s ckn o. cynthia suarez needed to buy new laptops for her growing team. so she used her american express business card, which lets her earn extra membership rewards points on purchases for her business. now she's the office mvp. get the card built for business. by american express. ready to shine from the inside out? try nature's bounty hair, skin and nails gummies. the number one brand to support beautiful hair, glowing skin, and healthy nails. and introducing jelly beans with two times more biotin.

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look at the carmakers on the move today phil lebeau has the breakdown. >> this was a strange month and we knew it was going to be a strange month because the chip shortage and the record low inventories. we really weren't sure what we would see from the domestic automakers versus the foreign automakers i bring that up as i start to show you the different sales results for the month of june and for the second quarter, let's start with general motors. sales increasing as expected, just under 40% for the month but it's inventory down 36% since the end of q1. the dealers were limited by how many vehicles they could sell. why does that matter look at shares of toyota, it matters because toyota outsold general motors in the second quarter. that is the first time since 1 1998 was not number one in the u.s. in any quarter in terms of auto sales toyota sales up almost 40% here's what we saw in terms of the sales and the overall pace

according to auto data, we got this number, a pace of sales of 15.35 million vehicles, weaker than many people expected. and that's because it is such low inventory, dealers were restricted with what they could do to meet the demand that was out there. and that also meant the dealers didn't have to offer as rich of a deal on average, it was about a $3,000 incentive per vehicle for point of comparison, that was about 57 or $5800 per vehicle on the incentive side last year want to look at ford, look at tesla, why ford and tesla, tomorrow morning, we'll hear from ford in terms of q2 sales we expect to get the q2 delivery number from tesla. tesla does it in first three days of the -- after the end of the quarter. usually on the second day, so that's our expectation and in terms of what people are expecting for q2 deliveries from tesla, the expectation according to fact set is that the company delivered a little over 200,000 vehicles just over 202,000, so that's the magic number that people will be

focused on i have to point out, melissa, i've seen estimates of 189,000 up to 210,000. so there is always a wide range when it comes to quarterly delivery estimates for tesla >> as varied as the price target on the stock itself. tim seymour, anything surprise you? >> no, not really. i think unlike a trip that is foregone because of a demand issue or a meal you haven't eaten or something consumable, a delayed car purchase will be purchased. and i'm not worried about a chip shortage for automakers. gm reiterated they see huge demand into the second half of the year, and into 2022. and they talked about the economy, and they talked about the consumer we have all this stats, we have run them on this show in terms of the average age of the car on the road, we know the commitment that they're making to ev and to autonomous we know the profitability of this company has never been

better and their efficiency also in terms of how they're running a business these numbers were what we expected, we are aware of the constraints and in fact i think you priced in a lot of bad news on the constraints in these companies. >> yeah, i just add that all this data we said, tim said he's not particularly surprised, a lot of things very supportive about the used car market and i would go to autonation, that's a name we talk about a lot i like it compared to car vanya, 40% of the sales autonation sales are getting more of their sales online car vanya has that fat multiple. autonation topped out at 107 a couple of months ago sold off, about 15 %, 16%, making a run back there. i think everything phil lebeau said is supportive of the used car market and autonation in particular. >> the part that was -- the two parts most particularly relevant, of course, is when the inventories are low, and the prices of new cars are going higher, that's a wonderful

situation for a dealer because, of course, that's the margin, less price competition, that's helpful, it has elevated used car prices significantly and tends to be a larger margin on those products as well autonation does a lot in that space too. the dealer is where the first thing i was thinking of. imagine a thousand dollar margin expansion on per unit basis, $15 million, $15.5 billion worth of incremental income that is going to go if you just say cumulatively across the dealership space so, you know, whatever you were thinking, you know, you need to handicap that. i expect as tim does that, you know, the unmet demand for replacement trucks, the year -- light duty truck sales will be great when they get back on the lot. >> we're just getting started on "fast money. here's what's coming up next. the skies are about to get busy as passengers take flight for the holiday weekend. so a top airline analyst is joining us next to chart a course for the airline stocks.

plus, walgreens gets the boot. shares dropping as concerns of slowing vaccinations hit investors. we got that and a lot more when "fast money" returns ♪ ♪ when technology is easier to use... ♪ barriers don't stand a chance. ♪ that's why we'll stop at nothing to deliver our technology as-a-service. ♪

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but even i'm not as memorable as eating to deliver our technology as-a-service. turkey hill chocolate chip cookie dough creamy premium ice cream and chasing fireflies. don't worry about me. i'm fine. you can't beat turkey hill memories. welcome back to "fast money. call it the calm before the mad holiday rush that is a live picture of rainy newark airport the faa expects to see the most air space traffic since the beginning of the pandemic. one top airline analyst warns it may be too much for the infrastructure to handle hunter kay, wolf research, rated number one by institutional investors, he joins us now great to have you with us. great shot >> thank you, melissa. good to see you. >> when you say can't handle it,

meaning going from zero to whatever speed, 60 miles an hour, they can't do it >> i mean, look, they'll handle it, there will be hiccups. they already canceled a bunch of flights into the weekend they're in a tough spot right now. leisure demand will be back to over 100%, and then go back to being down 20%, 25% three weeks later. you can't really -- requires two or three months to step up in these types of surge weekends, you can't do it. they're probably going to hope for the best. >> what happens? does it change your models for the airlines at all? do these flights get taken or does the time pass, if american cancels a bunch of flights, do people just lose out on those flights and cancel their trips, take the trips later >> it doesn't really impact the stock or the models. i think there is a longer term effect, a regulatory blowback or

something like that. not good for the brands, not good for the longer term pricing power. if they cancel the flight because it is their problem, you'll get refunded, if they can't reaccommodate you. these types of things don't -- it is just kind of noise >> hunter, it is tim thank you for joining us you have us well trained on a couple of things including capacity and energy prices and sometimes good, sometimes bad for airlines quickly, you said how much capacity to add online, you're often bearish on airlines adding too much capacity once things start to get good. give me that outlook and aren't energy prices good for the airline sector right now >> yeah, tim, thanks good to hear your voice. so right now united had an analyst day this week and they said they're going to grow 4% to 6% compound annual growth race 2018 through 2023 and about 25% to 30% bigger in '23 relative to 2019, that's higher than what we

were expecting we had 5% bigger and now it is on the -- we'll see what happens with the competitive response not a lot of other airlines have the aircraft to respond in that type of aggressive manner. i think united is trying to catch the competition flat footed they didn't cut their fleets that much, others did. but you're right the only way that airlines tend to not overgrow capacity, should grow roughly in line with gdp, they have the same cost problem and high oil prices are one of the problems it is high, but not quite high enough to deter that type of excess capacity for now. >> hunter, it is karen, thank you for being on let me ask you about the higher margin business traveler, the international traveler where do you see that -- how you to see that demand coming back over time? >> yeah, so business travel is down 65% from pre-covid. international, long haul international still down 90, 95%, caribbean is back, but that's domestic.

we think business travel is never going to come back, down for forever. but international should snap back pretty quickly. for the airlines, a good chunk of the revenue comes from the front of the cabin on the premium side and that reminds to be seen how that comes back. i think international should be back 75%, 80% by next year and business travel by about 75% by the end of next year, i think. >> hunter, just to underscore, you don't think business travel is going to return to pre-covid levels a lot of the airline ceos are saying they believe it will and they're modeling and buying planes accordingly are we going to -- is it an eventuality that we're going to hit that point where they are adding capacity back on that they don't need because they're not anticipating the demand correctly? >> yeah, look, it is a great debate i have this debate with our clients all the time nobody really knows.

he thinks business travel is going to come all the way back, he might be right, but ask yourself the same question what type of conveniences have you afforded yourself these days during covid a lot more people are coaching their kids' soccer teams than they did before. if you say we're never going back to the office full time, why should we return to business travel full time i don't think that makes a lot of sense but he's been bullish over the last few months, he's been right, but it is a philosophical debate at this point they're ready for it >> delta variant, how big of a caveat is that in your mind? >> it is not great let's be honest, it is not great. here in the u.s. it is not as big of an issue. not deterring leisure travel as we just discussed. there is pragmatic elements here too. when uk doesn't open its borders because of delta variant concerns, you'll see major multinational corporations in the u.s. restrict their own

business travel, even on domestic you should expect a company like 3m or caterpillar to relax business travel restrictions the stuff just has to go away. and travel passports and pcr tests, that's not going to solve it this has to go away before people can get back to normal. the delta variant is an issue. there is not much summer left for the air tlolines to capital on. >> hunter thank you for joining us >> thank you, everybody. >> hunter kay. where you to stand on the airline trade here >> i agree with him on the business travel front in particular you know, it's -- it isn't simply an issue of whether or not the pandemic or the delta variant is remaining threat, it isn't just the fact that people -- maybe they have decided they're going to go to a hybrid work model where they're staying work from home monday, friday, like lazard said they

would start doing. that's not the only issue. the other issue is that the infrastructure, the technology that everybody has on their desk to be able to do a better job locally working either from their local office or from their home has all improved. people have got virtual television studios in their house an they figured out how to make this kind of thing work where that wasn't working out, they're improving how they can collaborate in a virtual environment and that really is the pressure factor taking away the rest of us. >> one stat, zoom, market cap, greater than united, delta, american, southwest, and jetblue combined like, that just tells you i think all you need to know, hunter just said that the ceo of united has better data than he does the market is speaking for itself in that regard, if you think about it to be -- i don't think that that level of business travel is ever going to be back to the prepandemic levels might have been going that way

anyway because of the secular shift in technology. >> you can go see more clients on zoom than you can -- >> back to back to back. all right. by the way, hunter kay's top picks are ryanair and sun country. coming up, the quarterly stock report results are in. we're getting the traders to weigh in on the biggest questions. that's next. shares of wall ggreens in the r today. "fast money" is back in two. uno, dos, tres, cuatro! [sfx]: typing [music starts] [sfx]: happy screaming

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welcome back to "fast money. cnbc is out with its exclusive quarterly stock report today we polled market participants. we start off with what is your favorite inflation trade what is your favorite inflation trade? i feel like they should play "jeopardy" music what is your favorite inflation trade. mike, what would your favorite inflation trade be >> we weretalking about some o it, some of it already played out. the commodity names have done so well i like the oil services sector that's a place i have been playing and i would continue to. >> oil, 58% said it is their favorite inflation trade followed by consumer staples

that's interesting 15%. bitcoin, actually. bitcoin. would you agree with that? >> the bitcoin is their favorite trade? >> no, would be yours? is it -- >> what is mine? >> is it an inflation trade? >> yeah, it probably is backs you if you get inflation that could be caused by the fed or the fed not reign -- the fed continuing to be -- have easy money, that's part of the bitcoin story. that's not my inflation trade. just -- mine is banks. >> okay. well, that gets to our second question here. that question is what -- >> sorry. >> financials, by 67% followed by tech and then energy, karen already said banks are her favorite trade for the second half tim, how about you >> well, i like the banks call inflation means higher rates we saw what banks did.

banks were the place to be if you look at a lot of the banks, jpmorgan, i think up 15% to 18% year to date, you know, relative to energy, which has moved a lot more, and the megacap tech names which some have moved, some have not, there is an argument for tech. i do think that the megacap tech names, especially the apples and the amazons, if you do relative to first half performance and playing the trading game, you don't have a high bar to clear where as i'm a little more worried about energy, even though you know i'm bull,ish on it if i'm playing the game, again, around some of the dynamics whether they're inflation or not, i think banks have a better shot, but i think then followed by tech. >> finally, where do you see ten-year yields by the end of the year nearly half thought above 2% another half said about where it is now and only 3% think it will be below 1.5% mike, where do you fall? >> i think probably near the current level.

i think this is -- the boat is pretty loaded on one side of the bet as far as inflation is concerned. but the entirety of the curve is essentially controlled by he would know who so it is going to create some serious pressure if you basically make money considerably more expensive. and i don't expect them to do that. >> i think there is a strong chance over the next couple of months prior to the jackson hole late august fed symposium, the st. louis fed. i think you're going to see the ten-year go to 1.2%, we are in this down trend here. >> 1.2%. falling 3% small, small, small -- >> i think that it is going to get overdone to the downside i think people are going to capitulate there and you're going to seat fed think about or change their -- think about -- is that the thing there -- think about, they're going to think about the idea of a taper will be very much in the lexicon by q4 and then you'll see rates start moving higher. we need to shake out, do the thing -- the pain trade is lower now. >> okay.

coming up, walgreens dropping 7% today, we're digging into what had investors checking out there is a special edition of "fast money" coming your way right after this we're giving you the chance to ask about the stocks on your radar. that is all coming up top of the hour at 6:00 stick around "fast money" is back right after this miss a moment of "fast", get asmoy"odst on the go, follow the "ft ne pca folks the world's first fully autonomous vehicle is almost at the finish line today we're going to fine tune the dynamic braking system whoo, what a ride! i invested in invesco qqq a fund that invests in the innovators of the nasdaq 100 like you you don't have to be a deep learning engineer to help make the world a smarter place does this come in blue? become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

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welcome back to "fast money. walgreens under pressure today despite a report in earnings beat before the bell they worry the boost from covid vaccines will start to fade and they're worried about the turn around strategy for new ceo ross brewer who took over back in march. karen, you said the outlook was kind of concerning you like this one, though. >> i do still like it. i think that's what made it not trade so well. i didn't find it that concerning i think maybe being a little bit conservative, but even if she's not the valuation here already reflects, right, you know, that things aren't going gangbusters. has a high dividend yield, not the reason why i own it, i don't hold it against them the pe is low here and i think there is some reopen sort of tailwinds that they can still have and, you know she's just

getting going there. we'll see what she can do. i feel like this minor disappointment to take one pe multiple point off the stock, when the pe multiple is already so low seems overdone to me. so if i own none, i would certainly be a buyer today i think it was overdone. >> tim, you're in the same boat as karen >> well, and i own some. and if anything i would be looking at -- the outlook in the full year essentially guide for 21 up about 10%, i think, you know, reflects already some good news in there. i thinkpeople wanted to see more agree roz brewer has three or four levers to pull with this company, and i think they include kind of their epharma business, which is, i think, just getting going and where there could be a much larger multiple i think people are still somewhat concerned about the pair pbm type relationship and some of the -- i think the pull forward of sales from covid, i actually think that the reopening trade is even better for folks like walgreens and i

think the multiple is way too attractive, especially in an environment that if anything whether it is variant, delta variants, dynamic around stimulus, whether it is people getting back to it full time, these stores are going to see more traffic than they did, i believe, around covid. >> mike, we saw some interesting options activity in this name today. >> it traded more than ten times its average daily call volume, trading

it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya.

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and the mets now owned by hedge fund manager steve cone are trying to capitalizing on the deal the price, 250 bucks i don't know if you really make out on that. tim, you're the mets fan here on the panel. so -- >> are you kidding me? first of all, let's go, mets and, yeah, you bet you bet i'm sleeping out at citifield with bobby bonilla, for mets fans this is absolute embarrassment, but this isn't stevie cone's problem. the previous owner not to be named, but a shame guy adami is not here tonight to give me notable you know what. time value of money, this is one of the worst deals you could have put together. and at times the willpons had cash squeezes on their payroll that forced them to do dumb things the smart guy is bobby bonilla we should have him on "fast

money. huge fan of show the. >> what is he doing with this money? >> exactly i think it is time to figure this out >> yeah, what a dealmaker he is, that's for sure. time for the final trade let's go around the horn tim, kick it off >> sure. look, the s in rise or my acronym is schlumberger, and, again, the energy trade, whether it has to outperform, this company has underperformed is actually relatively cheap to itself and cheap to the underlying asset >> karen finerman. >> yes so the c in citibank is my final trade. there can be buybacks. too cheap on tangible book basis. congrats to tim for winning the first acronym trade challenge. >> i don't know where my hope trade has gone my guess is tim is in the lead mike >> i had an acronym trade, it would be gap, that starts with a g. google is the one i would pick

i feel like this is a good place to be. >> maybe it should be aaa -- >> i would say the p in my apes trade, which really is an ode to you, mel, so you know. pfizer, i just think that has been consolidated, i think you'll see a breakout in the poll. >> thank you, all, for watching "fast money. don't go anywhere. we have a special bonus hour of "fast" coming your way off this quick break. stay tuned ♪♪ (vo) the rule in business used to be, "location, location, location." now it's, "network, network, network." so you need a network that's built right. verizon business unlimited starts with america's most reliable network. then we add the speed of verizon 5g. we provide security that's made for business and offer plans as low as $30 per line. more businesses choose verizon than any other network.

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fans, jim is off tonight you are in luck we have got a bonus hour of "fast money. tweet us at cb "fast money" and we might answer you on the air tim seymore, nadine and james mcmcdonald let's get to it. the second half of the trading year kicking off with a new record high. the s&p 500 closing at a new all-time high and green arrows across the board with the dow and nasdaq posting gains among the best, energy, utilities and health care. energy the notable stand outout.

oil above 70 bucks a barrel. the first question. >> i have a question about the energy market. what biden administration has different policies than the trump administration how do you think the energy market will perform the next six to 12 ponts? thank you very much. >> tim, why don't you answer accred's /* craig agencies question about oil? >> when you think about the energy sector there is a couple of things that i hathink are cliches. one, the best response to higher oil prices if you are a consumer is higher oil prices which leads to a supply response the problem right now is you are not going to get the supply response that quickly and today we learned that opec and opec plus, which includes russia and the saudis now working at least more amicably than maybe they ever have, decided it punt on

cutting output so we are still kind of like the fed. opec is taking a very accommodative approach to tighter supply i should say raised output, not cut. to put a little bit more oil on the market and they are not going to do it. so i think the best thing, you mentioned the biden energy policy i have also said multiple times the best thing to happen to energy prices was the biden energy policy, which is clearly focused on ev, is focused on delivering an environmentally safe platform and pushing back on carbon footprint, which is great for the world. it's also great for the underlying price of energy companies. and i think i also said many times i believe oil companies especially are being run differently than they were five, ten years ago. that means that they are actually being run for equity investors, not growth at all costs in an environment where it was all about production >> yeah, we have seen in particular integrated oils, you know, cutting back on their

capex, selling assets to strengthen their balance sheet nadine, if you were to pick in the oil sector, where would you go >> we still like europe a lot. so shell is one answer to that question and the second is bullpen. t bp. you are talking about shedding assets they are focusing on green initiatives. i think tim pointed out a lot of important things to the point of here in california, when you do a lot of environmental practices, what ends up happening as we saw with utilities is prices go up. so just for that reason i think you can answer craig's question you should see in the next year prices continue to go up, especially with reopening happening around the world the xle is bullish and it's still midrange but you could pick it up at 52, 53 and have a good trade. >> opec going to have a critical meeting and weighing the balance of reopening of major economies, particularly the u.s. and the eu

in the u.k but also the impact of the delta variant, particularly in parts of asia slowing, for instance, china as well as india where do you come out on oil >> i want to piggyback on xle that nadine mentioned. i think this is a good holding to get exposure to the sector. it's the select sector for energy xle although it's doubled to the caller's point since the vaccine announcement we haven't gotten back to the $60 plus level pre-pandemic so i think there is still room to go to the upside based on the macro, the fluctuations that we will see with the different oil companies and oil holdings i think this is where we get an indication of the overall broad sector that can go higher. >> another viewer looking for guidance in the back half of the year. >> this is focused on the tech

sector >> i am logan haul by and i am from austin, texas my question is with the rise in quantity taf easing across 2020 and 2021 where we saw 40% of the u.s. monetary supply being printed how can we expect that and the rise of inflation to impact technology stocks that are already trading at such a high multiple to earnings, especially over the rest ofyear thank you so much. >> that is a great question from logan in austin, nadine, that lot of tech investors are wondering. we sort of got a taste of what happens when inflation expectations go high when the ten-year yield printed 174 now that we have had that and we have had that taste, how do you think we do in the back half >> i think logan, if you unpack his question, two things printing of money and then also about the interest rates, right. and so when you're thinking about those things, unfortunately, i think it's a thread the needle answer, which is you probably should have a

goldilocks situation for the next few months, but come the falk a little more careful with the tech because gdp growth is decelerating and inflation is difficult to know right now how investors are going to react because inflation will remain at a high level, but the growth is going to be decelerating and sometimes it ends up in a situation of deflation, which is really bad for tech. that's the only time it's bad for tech hold on for a little while longer logan, check in come august/september and i will let you know what i think after that. >> james, what do you tell logan? >> i say if you are watching the inflation number as a predictor of where rates may go and what may happen with tech, follow the fed's decisions around the changes in the estimates if we look at the core inflation estimates for year-end, they have been upwardly revised by 50% in a month's powered from the last meeting notes and this

number will continue to fluctuate and the fed will continue to adjust its stance on monetary policy and i think the impact is going to come if we see inflation accelerate and we see employment approach full employment over 5% towards year end, i think the fed is going to comment about the need to adjust its rate rise schedule not that we would get a rate increase in 2021, but i think we will get a warning of a rate increase in 2022 that, by association, [ inaudible ] the enthusiasm out of the risk assets and we see the yield back up on the ten-year. >> all right i am going to reel ask the question for logan, tim. and that is, is there one tech name you think could fair well no matter what the environment in the back half of the year >> logan has to be the coolest name i heard i want to get that out there we say logan this, logan that. i wish i named my son logan.

anyway, bulletproof tech name a tech company that is not a high multiple tech company. therefore, high multiple tech is very vulnerable in a rising inflationary world and we have seen that. i think as the fed stops in and pushes back at least on the sense that they are -- in other words, regain some credibility like they did two weeks ago and say we are watching inflation and it actually pushes rates down and then you are actually looking for the tech companies that are the most reasonable valuations and i think that brings you right to google and brings you right to apple. and i know, again, relative to itself, apple is not cheap apple is underperformed. but what's broken out of and held the bottom of the range adds you started to hear both the fed reassert itself somewhat, apple and megacap tech have start today move. in the last two weeks. so i think they are kind of all weather stocks whether you have slower growth or whether the second derivative response to

the fed stepping in is people think the fed will over step its bounds and you see a flattening of the curve i like google because i think the valuation stands on its own in good times and bad. i like apple because it underperformed a bit as we start to get into the holiday season, in addition to the macro arguments i made, i think we haven't priced in any of that and a lot of money is still sloshing around with the consumer. a question on the reopening. will it bring magic to the house amounts? riley in georgia. >> thank you with the economy get back on track do i think disney will be a good stock for short-term and long-term? thank you. >> james, thoughts on disney >> i think disney had a straining announcement and an amazing streaming result crazy numbers. great popularity and they rushed in and they pushed the stock up to a level that it couldn't sustain once the vaccine announcement came, the reopening priced in on

top of those streaming numbers and we have been flat and we've been going down for the last couple of months i think the trend continues. so much enthusiasm in the disney stock. great company. great name i would buy around the 130 level because between the streaming and the vaccine announcement all of the upside was priced in short term. >> tim, is disney too expensive right now? >> i don't think so. and i take the hybrid multiple approach to their streaming business versus their core business and again it's a distribution versus kind of the traditional business and i think you have got an argument also that the company that really underperformed, right, who was taking it on the chin in march, april, may? it was disney and it was -- we forgot about this other part of their business then of course as we got into covid and said, okay, yeah, their parks business is dead, their studio business is stalled, then people focused on streaming.

i think although streaming also -- look, the good and the bad of pulling forward some streaming subs is that, look, it jump started the model that was really the way you wanted to be investing in disney that much going forward. so i actually think covid was very, very important to actually getting streaming to be the manger part of that valuation and pushing that front forward for investors. disney's been a dog in 2021. it's actually underperformed and i think it's a great second-half stock, especially as we look and weigh the impact of the overshoot, i think, back into their parks and experiences business >> nadine? >> bob iger on june 1st sold 550,000 shares half of his holdings i would follow what bob did because he, obviously, is a pretty smart guy do what they do, not what they say. so i would take some off the table right now. it's a great long-term story, but right now the trade is not

in your favor. >> we are getting started on this special edition of "fast money. tweet us at cnbc "fast money." we will try to get your question answered on air. up next, an question on amc as robin hood files to go public. all that and much more when the special edition of "fast" retus.rn

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♪ me and you listening to the rain ♪ ♪ me and you we are the same ♪ ♪ me and you have all the fame we need ♪ ♪ indeed, you and me are we ♪ ♪ me and you singing in the park ♪ ♪ me and you, we're waiting for the dark ♪ welcome back to "fast. a developing story robinhood files to go public let's get to kate rooney with the details. >> the retail trading boom is really front and center of robinhood's ipo paperwork filed today and that eventual public offering we got a look at their financials for 2020. they were profitable with net income of $7 million compared to a loss a year ago. rudome

robinhood has 18 million accounts, up from 7 million a year ago. >> 150% increase there assets under custody, 80, up from 90 billion a year ago and they are setting aside 20% for retail customers on robinhood's platform the majority of money is transaction revenue or payment for order flow, most of that kopgs from options trading options and crypto make up more than half of robinhood's revenue. equities a quarter of reason robinhood is a five time cnbc 50 company. cnbc disrupter 50 company. it topped this year's list and the ceo is among the featured speakers at this year's summit you can register at cnbcevents.com. >> thank you our next question is actually about one of the hottest trades on robinhood right now amc. >> good evening, "fast money"

team some apes want to hear recommendations on amc entertainment going into the fourth of julyic with. i have been in for about two months now i'm up over 500%, continue to add to my position have yet to sell a share don't plan on going anywhere want to hear the professional recommendations on amc entertainment and why we are in this solid consolidation period for the past two to three weeks. >> i don't know if you guys caught that, but aaron, when he said professional, he used the air quotes so, james, i'll go to you. as the professional, what do you tell aaron about amc he was referencing july 4th weekend because people might be going to the movies over the weekend. >> right and so this is the first time we have seen consolidation up in this $50 level so it's a new phenomenon for something that is tremendous phenomenon in itself with the games that hyou have i with definitely focus on

protecting the downside. this is an unpredictable holding and market the prudent thing would be to take a portion of those gains and put it in some downside protection we don't know what will happen afternoon the consolidations i would just focus on covering your downside. >> yeah. tim, your thoughts >> yeah, i agree risk management. and again for someone that is looking to add more shares and doesn't want to sell any, again that's really clear, and there as passion behind the group that is investing in amc. and, look, i will take you back to fundamentals. it doesn't matter what happens this weekend in terms of where you have exclusives and at the box office it's going to be exciting. who doesn't like to go to the movies the kickoff of the summer season, et cetera. doesn't matter to me the fundamentals around this stock even if they are scooping up assets in the theater chain world and added some other tech and cpg and entertainment folks

into a c-suite and it may sound good, but the short it medium term doesn't change the store. the short interest is what the story is about short interest is around 17% now and i think it's down substantially, but it's still elevated therefore, i think you still are going to have to see people come back into the thing. but again play risk management here you are fired up over this name. that's great protect yourself. >> aaron mentioned apes and apes want to hold forever and fundamentals they have never played a part of the story nadine, this is a question of trade management if you want to stay in the trade, what would you do >> i think you heard it from james and tim. got to protect a little bit. what you have here, it's bullish short-term and bullish intermediate-term and i'm looking at our trading range it's about five to one upside. that sounds great. so maybe 53 to 39 1/2.

the problem is it's an implied volatility discount of minus 38. what does that mean? people aren't buying protection versus before. so this is the time to do that if no one else is doing it, especially because on a volatility adjusted basis our signal at our firm is showing it at neutral so i would either take chips off the table or if you are a long-term owner of this get some protection try to get it. >> next a question, one the newest names on the street >> hi, my question is about didi global cramer was very positive about it tuesday night before the ipo. i would like to know if you guys still feel the same way about it today. thank you. >> tim, we used to call you the ambassador on fas money because you specialized in emerging market stocks. what do you think of didi? >> look, i love the opportunity. and i love the fact that their

total addressable market size is gigantic and the question is what is the core business model. they have a couple of investors at the table, major investors in tencent and soft pack. i think also they are helping to position this company for the future the question right now for investing in china tech is what's the role of big brother what's the role of the regulator? what is the role of data privacy dynamics in china? it's clear that china megacap tech is trading at a discount and there is a major corporate governance haircut being put on the names. some of that fear factor isn't going to change. i am not sure what medium term means on this. there is no question i don't think anyone trusts the regulator and big brother in china over here when investing in, for example, look at alibaba. so i think didi will prove to be, if you like lyft and uber, you should love didi, i believe.

because again i think they are in a position right now of leadership in the biggest market in the world and the profitability factors that these other companies talk about, they will see more near-term than i think their competitors over here. >> if you want a path to profitability it's uber and lyft if you want a business squarely focused on rideshare it's lyft so where would you go in the space? >> right now we're on pause. so this isn't a space that we are playing in right now and so my answer to the caller is just to wait a little bit watch how the security trades. 10 points sounds really good tim said a lot what has driven china tech, number one, is the macro in china so the growth of gdp was decelerating when a lot of other countries were accelerating. the reason is they were the first one to come out of the pandemic, and so their comparables are really hard.

that doesn't change for a quarter or two so i would be a little bit careful going overweight on china tech right now but you are going to pick up great bargains for later on. watch this thing trade a little bit before you jump in. >> still ahead tackling the krimcrypto craze coin tea esonn e ina trade as china's president issued a bold warning to the world. we break it down when "fast money" returns

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welcome back to the special edition of "fast money." we are taking your questions next up, the crypto craze. our next viewer wants to know how to play it >> this is brian from oregon i have been buying in coin base since april. i am down 14%. it seems to go trading with the

cryptocurrencies but it's barely touched the total addressabling market and should be making money. i am a long-term investor. should he hold on to it or add to it? thanks >> joining us to help tackle that question is dan he covers coin base. he put out a note today saying this could be the last hurrah for coin welcome to the show. why the last hurrah? >> well, if you think about this name, basically it trades crypto volatility they make a lot of money when people buy and sell. we have seen in april and may a huge lblip in volatility and it died out in june a crypto winters is happening now. we expect if this volatility continues to be subdued into july, august and september, you are going to get provision of estimates for the second quarter but then simultaneously downward revisions for the fourth quarter and potentially town the road. playbook continues there will be a crypto winter,

lingering crypto winter which we figured out in a survey we did recently and that stunt bode well it bodes well for coinbase revenues i wouldn't recommend holding on to it. we are neutral but we have downside >> haven't the seasons in crypto, haven't they been shortened just because they re e more participants? i think tom said this the other day, that he believes that a winter will be much shorter and that over time these winters have been shorter. so why should we think this will be long enough to impact the back half of the year? >> the answer is nobody really knows, right we are not -- nobody knows what the future of the holds on crypto are but what i think here is that at the end of the day, even if the volumes go up, that the take rate or the yields continues to come down. so we've seen a consistent degradation. yield over time for various reasons. there is more institutional and

institutional actually pay as lower fee. two, there is a lot more coinbase pro on the system and coin base pro is a lower feed than the regular coin base it's free, so anyone can transfer and three, over time we expect more competition from the cash app from venmo we have done surveys that shows that 40% of coin base traders of bitcoin trade bitcoin on other platforms. i think over time you are getting more negatives than positives impacting the yield and the competition. and that's going to drag down revenues regardless of whether it's a winter or not. >> i was going to ask you about the other platforms which you with been bullish on, like paypal, for instance if volatility is compressed do we see the negative impact on these platforms as well? >> yeah, absolutely. look, the tide goes vice versa they are a little bit more

insulated. bitcoin is 8% of gross profit, 4% of gross profit zwroefr all, including their point of sale system for paypal that number is lower. of course, you know, when bitcoin revenues dwindle, that hurts everyone but i think it's the degree of reliance on a single source of revenue that's a little more muted for the other platforms. plus, i think that both cash app and paypal, we hosted the talk guys from their crypto initiative last week for a meeting, and they have some very far reaching long-term thoughts about blockchain which i think are really interesting sounds like they are thinking beyond any coins and they are thinking about how can they utilize blockchain to get people in the day for paypal. so i think the play there is a longer play beyond any specific coin >> dan, thanks so much for joining us tonight let's trade this let's tackle coinbase. james, what do you say >> i say when i looked at the prospectus with the ipo and the

q, second quarter numbers, first quarter numbers, eye-popping numbers, the trades they do, piggybacking the crypto space. but there is a coinciding of al all-time high in bitcoin with the ipo. and anytime you have an ipo in a really hot market potentially the peak of that market, that investment in the ipo could be problematic. it raised my eyebrows you are only down 40% because this has a downside risk relative to the ipo price. i think that given the volatility in crypto there may be an abatement of that bullish tone and that may translate into lower fees for coinbase. where such an amazing ipo, amazing initial numbers, there is a lot to keep up with i think the tape says it all this is going to continue to see pressure >> tim, would you rather coinbase or bitcoin? >> oh, wow great question. >> you can say neither

>> can i i didn't i know. i thought an answer was required but, look, bitcoin, because i think you have a dynamic -- what was introduced in terms of the competitive landscape is very real one of the reasons why if you asked me, or square, you know, i might even despite hating that valuation, the cash app, the stickiness, being able to do whatever you want on the cash app is part of the magic back to coinbase i don't hate the story by the way, the chart for now looks coinbase is basing around 210, 220, to 230 something like that they are going to convert interested investors into active the fact this they've grown their customer base so dramatically doesn't mean that th those people leave the platform. they are in a position to offer other services that other online brokers offer and possibly in the crypto space possibly in

more traditional financial services but, look, if you think bitcoin is topped, then i don't think you want to own coinbase if you think bitcoin is going through a winter and a correction and it is what it is, whatever the timing is, maybe it got ahead of itself and maybe it's not going to 100,000 this year, but you can't own coinbase if you think bitcoin's best days ever behind it because you have a view on crypto that's not going to be consistent with an exchange, the leading exchange to extend itself. >> we are watching shares of virgin galactic on the move. they are higher by almost 18% after hours. to kate rogers with the news kate. >> that's right. news on the space race and the virgin galactic stock probably higher on this year. the company announcing that it will attempt to launch its next test spaceflight july 11 and they will be carrying sir richard branson on that test flight branson is aiming to beat jeff bezos up into space. he plans to launch with blue

origin on july 20th. sir richard branson says as part of the remarkable crew of specialists i am honored to validate the journey our future astronauts will undertake and deliver the unique customer experience that people experience from virgin looks like sir richard branson may beat jeff bezos up into space. >> thank you and i'm waiting for emlon musk t weigh in is he going to try to best sir richard branson at this point? >> james, what do you think of virgin >> the stock looks like a rocket that went up and fell down once again. year to date, this has been an amazing story of a company, but the stock is incredibly volatility i think that how nice it must be to be an eccentric billionaire to do travel for us earthly investors, this is a holding, the unpredictability is too high. >> by the way, they will publicly, virgin galactic, live

stream the spaceflight across twitter, youtube and facebook. we can all she what richard branson is experiencing in this spois voyage, tim. >> there is maybe certain things i don't want to see him experiencing up there. but anyway i think it's fascinating look, and i think i understand where themeatically investors are chasing this trade but i'm not chasing this trade and at these levels. the faa headlines last week took the stock back to the all-time highs. i would imagine tomorrow we will see and maybe some technical guys will say that this is where you are breaking out to carve out new territory in the space but i am not flying. >> this is remarkable. sir richard branson is 70 years old, 71 years old, nadine. he believes it's safe enough for himself to go. this seems like a big stamp of approval for the average -- i

say average in quotes once again, because the average person can't afford this flight. but for regular people to go on this flight. >> well, no. a fun fact i used to go to space camp in huntsville, alabama. so i was thinking about being an astronaut one day a long, long time ago but i would not be getting on anything right now until we see a few flights go up. i guess they have to do it in order to prove that it's safe for others but i look forward to watching them do it and dream those dreams that i had as a little girl >> all right virgin galactic up - >> not on the stock either. >> stock is up 18% right now coming up, cleanup in aisle nine where is the love for walmart? new exclusive results from cnbc's quarterly stock report. plus, one bureau wants to know if a breakout is building. don't forget to send your questions our way, tweet us at cnbc "fast money." we might answer you on the air we will be back after this

welcome back to the special edition of "fast money." cnbc out today with this quarterly stock report we asked a handful of market participants which retail stock they'd rather own the remainder of the year. walmart struggled with 12.5% a question on the big box retail fundraiser jimmy. >> i got a question about walmart. projections stock to go higher it's been around the140 rang que some time. do you see it breaking out soon? and will flipkart prevail the stock higher this fall thank you.

>> tim, what do you say? >> well, let's answer it kind of working in reverse i think flipkart is important an some of their other jet and their for as into online e-commerce in other places or where they have essentially tried to have some intellectual, you know, gain from learning on job in the space is starting to work more importantly, they followed amazon in terms of walmart plus and in terms of 3 p and their fulfillment and using their large asset base to their advantage. walmart is a monster they push everyone around on price other than amazon. when you look at the -- for example, they dominate grocery they have 22% of all grocery sales. when you think about where amazon is in terms of 39% of all e-commerce in this country, and where walmart is well positioned as anybody to take some of that, especially as they move from

grocery into broader merchandise. that's where they want to be i love walmart i'm frustrated, too, by the last nine months in the stock i love the valuation you think it deserves a higher valuation, more of an e-commerce valuation. it's another stock that gets a hybrid multiple when it begins to take on the legacy player that it's competing against and i think walmart, look, you hate the last nine months as a shoulder you love the last five years that's a great looking chart i think this is a pause as it moves higher >> james, do you like the next five years >> i think so. there is a long arm within an hour 99% of the u.s. population. while amazon has invested billions of dollars in getting to deliveries within an hour, walmart has an advantage given that the bulk of its customers can afford its products and the rest can as well amazon can get it done walmart can get it done as well.

i see the upside to surpass amazon as the preferred delivery mechanism to more customers that can afford more of walmart's products this getting reflected in the stock is another thing i think walmart might see some stability if we get some choppiness in the market later in the year. so i like the stock. i have been a fan of walmart for a while. it has not translated into an accelerated stock prays ice to e sector, target, amazon but i think walmart has the advantage long term to get more customers for delivery in e-commerce. coming up, a burning question on the cannabis trade a viewer wants to know if now is time to get in we will eado tt ad en we come right back.

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welcome back to the special edition of "fast money." we are taking your questions next up a question on the cannabis trade >> kareem asks what do you think of grow generation ace long-term investment in the domestic cannabis industry? tim, what do you tell kareem >> well, look, kareem, growgen to me is especially retailer that operates in the middle of the cannabis space so whether if you are a home improvement guy you go to home depot or lowe's. the hydroponics, not just cannabis space, has been hot and alive and well in terms of within cannabis, growgen is the, you know, the leader in terms of specialized and high-growth in terms of their numbers. same-store sales are probably 50

to 60% this year they are growing organically, but also aggressively going through m&a. they are expected to be probably 450 to 500 million in revenues this year. this will be $1 billion sales company in the cannabis space at least a primary cannabis player for their business while they continue to grow and taking market share this is a major position in my etf. i owned it for a long time i think the management team has done a great job of, again, looking at where they can actually be a b to b player and b to c and grow within their own stores while also being very, very equiztive i think they have some firepower both with the currency of their stock and money on the balance sheet to go after more acquisitions than they have. >> this is an interesting one. many people think the cannabis trade is picking a company that deals with the actual product. this is the seller of the picks and shovels which is another way to approach this trade, nadine.

>> right and for the reasons tim mentioned, it's, obviously, an attractive business. and a solid management team with a good strategy. but if you are looking how to trade it, it seems that was a bit of the question here, it is in a bullish formation so that's a positive for your ownership of it. and it's got an implied volatility premium so people are paying up for protection they are a little bit worried. it's about 7%, i'd say but in terms of like a daily trading range, we are at about a minus 2.8 to one downside. it's going to trade within a range. if i pick up more shares, i'd like to pick it up around 39 that's where iden'd like this t see it the picks and shovels is great outside of pure cannabis players doing m&a to bet on regulation, we like this kind of stock. >> coming up, we've got a question on the china trade.

chinese president xi jinping issues a stern warning to the world. how investors can navigate the global uncertainty we are back right after this [swords clashing] - had enough? - no... arthritis. here. new aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme. we've got you taken care of, sgt. houston. thank you. that was fast! one call to usaa got her a tow, her claim paid... ...and even her grandpa's dog tags back. get a quote.

welcome back to the special edition of "fast money." this was the scene overnight in china as president xi jinping celebrated the 100th anniversary of the chinese communist party and issued a disturb warning to

the world. >> president xi jinping didn't mention the u.s. directly, but he said that china wouldn't accept sanctimonious preaching or bullying by any foreign force. he said anyone who attempts to do so will, quote, find themselves on a collision course with a great wall of steel forged by china's 1.4 billion people president xi's tough talk matched the show of force during the celebrations here for the chinese communist party's 100th birthday, while china's own j 20 stealth fighters flew overhead, the president pledged to build up the military. he described the eunification of taiwan as an historic mission, hailed a new world created by chinese people, and promised to ensure stability in hong kong. hong kong was in lockdown today as it marked another event the 24th anniversary of its return from british to chinese

rule more media outlets suspended operations out of fear after the closure of pro-democracy paper the "apple daily," the parent's paper next digital shut down today. >> thank you let's get more on the rising tensions out of china. joining us is that ward rick n mcneil focusing on china security relations with the u.s great to see you again >> great to see you, melissa. >> president xi's words doesn't sound like somebody who wants to play in the sandbox with the u.s. and allies. how would you interpret that rhetoric >> it's for the uninitiated ear, that was a very bellicose speech but the general thrust of the message has been stated quite a bit by xi. that is we're big, we're powerful, we're here and if you are going to be in china, you are playing by

chinese rules. you will not set the terms of the debate and if i were a business listening to that last night, i would ask myself whether or not my china strategy still meets with all of my assumptions, still meet with the current strategic reality and whether or not the rewards are still worth the risk a lot of people have long-term views about their involvement and engagement in china. 20, 30-year plans. i am not sure that the chinese share that window that many western companies have been their existence in china things are shifting fast as we saw in that speech. >> do you think that the risks to doing business in china broadly for u.s. companies, do you think the risks are higher now versus, say, five years ago? >> i do, but it's very much industry specific. so if you are in the financial sector, if you are an asset manager doing mutual funds, you are meeting with an open -- you are being met with an open door.

fidelly, blackrock, all these companies are welcomed into china. but that's because china has found that there is still a need for western knowledge and western products in their financial services market. but if you are a technology company, that window has literally shrank and may no longer be present on either side of the pacific so it is very much industry specific, but i still would be asking myself, are my assumptions correction, and can i engage on china's terms if i'm a western business how important values, national security, a free and fair market and if all of those answers are very important, you should really be questioning about how long you can remain in china in this environment. >> what do you think the administration's stance be towards china and particularly trade? >> yeah, the biden administration has kept their cards close to the vest on trade. i think that they have decided

that we need to look at ways to do more targeted tariffs, if we are going to do tariffs at all, that the blanket approach did not really serve u.s. interests. in fact, benefitted china. so i think that the u.s. is looking to set better terms of trade. i think that they are going to be looking to go back, melissa, to some of those structural issues that the trump administration started to talk about, but then shifted away from those things. technology transfer, state-owned enterprise subsidies and the like some of the structural issues will find its way back on the biden trade agenda and china is going to sisterhave to deal witt >> thank you. >> thank you. and he mentioned neckto technology as having harder s in china. one final viewer question here >> i am michael from tennessee my question is in regards to amd

and the ban biden placed on solar insurance coming from the xinjiang region due to the uighur human rights issues with this being half of the supply produced used to manufacture semis and solar panels do you see this as something to correct quickly or will this extend the global chip shortage >> tim, i will go to you the question was specific about materials sourced from xinjiang but more broadly amd and other chip companies may not have as warm a welcome in china as they once had because of china's ambition to have its own chip sector >> look, this is kind of where i think a lot of this frosty geopolitical dynamic took place. i think control of technology, control of the internet and control of nanotechnology for the next 20 to 30 years is really at the core of where we are at loggerheads

so, yes, i think nothing has hanged national championed companies in china are going to be given an edge and the previous administration spent a lot of time basically whacking away at those companies. i think china is going to continue to be building those strategic sectors and not really going to accept any outside influence except for where it's needed so, look, when i think about all of this with china, china has to play nice when it comes to financial markets, as was referenced where the financial services companies are allowed china wants to be a money center the reason the u.s. has the influence in the world, one of them, because of our markets, our dollar and our financial system i think china has to kind of balance this off as they play rough. no, i don't think the technology world is going to be a warm place. >> 15 seconds, nadine. we talked about the chinese champion companies they have not had an easy time

in china so which ones would you say might be a buy right here? >> you know we, still like tencent. but you've got to be careful you have to be a long-term owner. also billy. >> all right nadine, tim, james, thank you. that does it for us on this special edition of "fast money"ful the news with shepard smith starts right now starts now the country's top stories playing out in courtrooms from coast-to-coast new reaction to bill cosby's release, the supreme court makes a decision on voting rights, and the trump organization charged i'm shepard smith. this is the news on cnbc the trump organization and cfo allen weisselberg plead not guilty to charges of fraud and grand larceny. what is in the newly unsealed indictments? rescue efforts back on after fears of a second collapse >> there is still a possibility someone could be