its 100th birthday and it was seen as inauspicious joe. >> thanks, eunice, we've got to run, but thank you for joining us happy early independence day, everyone we're -- and i use that in the loosest sense possible, only me are back here next tuesday please join us then. "squawk on the street" is next good friday morning, and welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber along with morgan brennan and mike santoli. we're live from the new york stock exchange let's give you a look at futures as we get ready to have the last trading day of the week here you can see where things stand we are strong, man we're strong let's get to our road map. it does start with that june jobs jump. stock futures as you just saw, they are rallying after the u.s. added a better than expected

850,000 jobs last month. >> plus, shares of virgin galactic soaring as founder sir richard branson plans to fly to space next weekend before arrival of jeff bezos. virgin's ceo is going to join us this hour. and didi shares under pressure china announcing a cybersecurity review just days after the company's ipo. all right, we are obviously reacting to those jobs numbers and what they're going to mean, and then of course the questions about inflation and/or lack of -- or at least shortage of workers and so many different things in the mix, mike and morgan and then you look at that ten-year. >> yeah. >> no real reaction. >> even though i continue to have those conversations that i'm sure both of you do as well with people saying i see inflation everywhere i see it in our supply chain, and it's not necessarily something we think is going to be transitory. i see it in our inability to hire the workers we want

i see in our commodities we have to buy for our end products. i don't know. >> i think that sort of gets right to the heart of that inflation debate on whether so-called transitory or not. freight rates, they can be cyclical we've seen china putting a lid that is one of the biggest consumers as well as producers of industrial commodities. they've been putting a lid on some of those prices as well you've seen things like copper coming under pressure as of late crude oil, that continues at multiyear highs. we have a spat reportedly with opec as well unlikely you're going to see that necessarily change. here in the u.s. you have trilers not necessarily drilling they have changed their focus in terms of the balance sheet you have a biden administration that's not necessarily eager to see more oil coming out of the ground plus, you put on top of it wage growth and as you mentioned, that labor shortage, which is particularly sticky. if employers are increasing salaries that is not something that is likely in hourly wages

that is not something likely to go away. bonuses different story, but hourly wages and salaries, that could be a much more longer lasting scenario that i'm sure the fed is watching closely. >> yes, and the question is whether we just have this step higher in prices across the board in wages and then from there it's moderate growth going ahead, and that's really the way the bond market and the feds seem to be playing this. today's number was reassuring on a couple of fronts the greater than expected addition of net new jobs mostly the upside surprise coming from the public sector. it's not a super hot number but definitely reassuring after a couple of months of disappointments. that tells you people are getting back to work some of the industries are finally being able to fill those open positions on the wage front, though, it was no hotter than expected. >> yeah. >> and also, the labor force participation rate was pretty much flat. that's kind of something we really have to watch because for the fed, the question is is the job market operating as if it's

tighter than it should be given how many jobs we're down i think that's the big question. the bond market was seized up ahead of this number because the thought that maybe you can get a hot inflation implication is sort of relaxing at this point on that front. >> we all know, the man does seem to be quite strong. you get these numbers, mike, though, and you look at the ten-year, barely budging still right around 143 after that move that we saw higher and then the beginnings of the erosion of that when growth stocks started to come back. let's call it mid-may, and here we are again, bringing it back to the market as well something you've been talking about often, of course, is the return of many of those growth names to at least a better performance than they saw for most of the first half of the year. >> and today looks like it will be a little bit of a nasdaq day to that point, right, when yields go down, that would be the outperforming area of the market, though it's not been so binary you've had sort of give and take on a day-to-day basis. >> yeah, you also got to factor in the fact you have at least on a global basis some fears around

this delta variant of the coronavirus as well, and some of those names that over the past year plus we have seen trade higher when you have seen concerns in the market around the pandemic rallied again this week as well that's worth watching as well as the fact that on the bond side that yield curve has been flattening, right? so financials which have been such a strong performer have been slipping a little bit too >> let's get more on the market's response to today's jobs numbers, and for that we're joined by david kelly, chief global strategist at jpmorgan and david bail chief investment officer and global head of investments at citi's global wealth good to have you both. david kelly, let me give with you. just give me your reaction to the number and what you're seeing in the markets right now and whether that's sort of accords with what you would have expected >> all right, it's a tale of two surveys. what the household survey said with actually a decline in employment of 18,000, the household survey an increase of 850,000 the payroll survey, i

don't think i've ever seen a difference as big as that. there was a lot of confusion in the numbers. what i still see is basically what a lot of you have been talking about which is there is tremendous demand for labor out there, and it's hard to hire workers. if you look at the wage growth numbers, we look back over the last two years rather than just the last year. that way you get rid of some of the pandemic distortions hon that basis average hourly earnings for production workers have been rising at a 4.6% annualized rate over the last two years and that's the strongest since 1983 there's a tremendous demand for labor here i think those wage numbers are strong we're adding in a lot of low wage workers back into the labor market right now the growth is in restaurant workers, service hotel workers, and still those wages are climbing so i see a lot of demand for workers here ido think those unemployment benefits finally lapse, and that really hasn't happened in the june survey when that lapses in half the states for the july survey and in all the states for

the september survey, i think you'll see a lot of job growth i think there's a lot more growth, a lot more potential facing these numbers than the bond market seems to perceive. >> back to this wage number you cited in terms of the actual increase in 1983 is there anything that you -- any correlation that can be made from that period to this one, david kelly, that will help people understand sort of what to expect? >> well, yes, i mean, i think we're in a somewhat sticky situation. a lot of this is transitory, but i think when workers get use of those wage increases, i think first of all the wage levels will stick i think the wage increases will stick also it's feeding through to expectations, too. we're looking at expectations. we're looking at wages as the two things which are likely to make this inflation more than just transitory, and we are seeing that in this survey today, and it's not quite back to the 1970s in terms of inflation. i mean, not by a long shot, but it is more inflation than we've

s seen in recent decades. >> david, given those data points we just got out of the jobs report this morning, as we're talking about the ten-year yields under pressure, but we have seen this flattening of the yield curve overall, what is the treasury market signaling here >> i think it is telling us that this is a transitory moment where we're going through a boom to david's point the expectation was 720,000. we've wildly excited that. we're seeing wages up. what thimeans for the economy is that we are going through a boom, that is to say we're going to have a much more rapid recovery now than we had in 2008 and 2009 we could be at full employment next year in the united states we've got lots of households with a lot of savings, and they're going to go out and spend that on services and restaurants and hotels and airline travel so we're going to see a very robust economy over the course of the next let's say year to year and a half. the fact that the ten-year is where it is is indicative of the fact that the market does not

believe -- the bond market does not believe there's going to be the level of inflation that david and i might expect the reason is if you buy a ten-year bond at 145 and inflation turns out to be 2.5%, which is just 50 basis points more than it was for the last decade, you would lose 1% a year you would lose 11% of the value of your portfolio over ten years if you hold bonds. that's the real loss of value, and that has not occurred for a long period of time here, right? we've just come off a 30-year period where owning bonds afwas good thing this from an investment standpoint is a really critical thing to consider. if invests are not going to be paid to hold fixed income, that is tailwind for the equity market and certain growth parts of the market like you've talked about in technology. >> david kelly, the way the market at least on first reflex has reacted to the jobs number today is to suggest that it buys the fed time to continue to be patient, right the dollar index has come down you saw like three and five-year yields come in

they've been very sensitive to incremental fed expectations is that correct, and what do you think that does mean for an equity investor? >> i can see why the market's taking it that way because i think the one surprise in this report was a 5.9% in the unemployment rate. remember the fed currently expects the unemployment rate to be 4.5% as an average in the fourth quarter that seems to be getting more and more elusive i think that may have a calming influence on the market. as an investor, i just look carefully at valuations here at some stage these yields have got to move. if you look at it this way, if the federal government can borrow at 1.5%, they're just going to keep doing it until the treasury market cries uncle here this just encouraging tremendous fiscal spending and we get another surge of fiscal stimulus here, eventually those rates have got to move higher and you just need to make sure you're positioned for that, even though the market seems complacent right now. >> david bailin real quick, if

you need to be positioned for that and obviously you're losing money conceivably if you're right about inflation, then you need to enequown equities don't you? >> you do. and you need to think about own dividend shares where earnings can grow you need to own the tech stocks that you think can maintain above average growth rates for a period of time, and you need to think about moving it to foreign markets which have much better valuations than we see here and especially those that are in the industries that will benefit from mid cycle economic recovery in other words, we're going to rapidly move from the beginning of a growth phase to a normalized growth phase. i agree with david that it would surprise us if we didn't see rates on the ten-year at 190, you know, plus at peak, but even that is a very low number for the economy and does indicate that we can certainly accommodate a fair amount of stimulation and a sustained economic growth for several years to come. this is going to be a good time

for equity investors and we're seeing clients at citi global wealth positioning themselves in equities right now >> yeah. all right, from one david to two others, thanks, guys, have a great weekend. >> thank you >> it's like david tripled. >> david, david, david >> all right, let's shift gears now to a major mover in the premarket right now, and that is virgin galactic. it is soaring, up about 22.5% right now trading around almost $53 a share. the company announcing founder sir richard branson plans to be aboard a planned test flight that's going to be july 11th, so next sunday. the flight would be nine days before the scheduled blue origin flight to take that company's founder jeff bezos into space. stay tuned because we're going to have a first on interview with virgin galactic's ceo a little later this hour in the meantime, guys, what a busy week for this sector that is emerging within the public markets as well.

i mean, obviously virgin galactic's publicly traded we had another one yesterday,s a tra, which is higher too in terms of this so-called billionaire space race, we've been talking about this. we've been anticipating this for years, if not decades, and it's really now in the process of manifesting over the next couple of weeks i actually spoke to sir richard branson earlier this week on cnbc because his other space company, virgin orbit successfully carried satellites to orbit i asked him if he was going to be flying to space this weekend or trying to beat jeff bezos to space, and this was before the disclosure we got last night here's how he responded at that time >> virgin galactic's a public company, i at no, mam not allowo talk about that. when the engineers tell me i can go to space, i'll be going to

space. >> all right, flash forward to, i don't know, 36 hours later, we now have a date, july 11th i am going to be on a lot of planes and a very busy lady over the next couple of weeks. >> watching billionaires going into space. >> pretty much. >> there goes another one. >> i will say as far as this is concerned, this is a test flight sir richard will be joining three other crew members in the cabin to test the astronaut experience whereas blue origin, it is bezos going up with his brother, going up with a very legendary aviator and also the winner of an auction, that nearly $30 million auction, so that will be having the first paying passenger there's little differences in nuances. really this is about one billionaire getting there before the other. >> bezos is going on the anniversary of the moon landing. he says, you know, that nobody can take that away from him. >> this is the most amazing marketing moment for space tourism. >> no doubt about it >> let's talk about much more later.

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welcome backto "squawk on the street." i'm phil lebeau with breaking news ford june sales down 26.9% as the company feels the impact of the chip shortage during the second quarter, and then that carried over into june june sales down 26.9%.

f series sales, and this is the one that people are tracking closely down almost 30% as the company had to restrict production the transaction price, however, up 15.5% what a huge increase in transaction prices guys, i'll send it back to you shares of ford moving a little higher after recording those june numbers guys, back to you. >> thanks, phil, yeah, and of course they've been very strong this year in part of the expectations for their ability to run significant market share in ev. let's move on to shares of didi under pressure in the premarket, this after the china cyberspace administration said it will conduct a cybersecurity investigation on the ride hailing service. the regulator is asking didi to stop new user registration during the investigation the company says it will cooperate with government authorities. and this of course is one in a series of different moves really that have begun last year, our viewers may recall, of course,

the expected ipo of ant financial, which got pushed aside when there was unexpected turbulence and opposition from the regulators in china. you move on to alibaba, you move on to february when the market regulator sammer talked about monopoly guidelines that target internet platforms and tightened existing restrictions faced by the tech giants. in may you had 13 firms, financial arms of food delivery giants as well, and didi adhering to tighter regulation of their data and lending practices. you had tencent, on and on there are many u.s. investors who own many of these stocks have simply been are they going to reset, and then can we assume this is the new normal and work from here, or is this going to be a continuing series of new regulations that we're not necessarily expecting? and obviously it has impacted, greatly impacted the performance of many of these stocks. >> for sure, and didi, certainly

was hovering over the offering it didn't trade particularly well it traded down to 14 and change on the first day came back yesterday, so it's going to give back yesterday's pop. definitely this growing feeling that the chinese authorities kind of don't want their large companies to necessarily be accessing global capital, becoming kind of global franchises and having ambitions beyond their borders and being almost bigger than, you know, than the domestic sphere. >> you look around the world, the largest economies are all cracking down in their own ways in big tech, very different reasons, very different approaches, very different intentions behind it, but that is essentially the trend in terms of china i mean, i think nothing speaks more to what we're seeing than you saying jack ma is laying low. he has not disappeared earlier this year and that being a big news story. >> and he continues to he's not missing but he's not what he was in terms of being an outspoken and occasional critic even of the government

that is over, at least for now. all right, when we come back, amazon's jeff bezos is giving up the ceo reins. we're going to look at what to expect from his successor andy jassy.

to say that amazon has had a phenomenal run with jeff bezos at the helm would be quite an understatement he is now passing the torch to his aws chief andrew jassy >> reporter: good morning, mike. it is always day one at amazon monday kicks off a new era, new ceo in andy jassy, new guiding principles, fresh challenges jeff bezos created some

$1.7 trillion in shareholder value over the past two-plus decades through relentless customer obsession in the start up in mentality, even as it became one of the biggest companies in the world, he stayed true to that. jassy begins his reign with a softer approach, empathy and a goal of becoming earth's best employer those two principles were added to amazon's leadership principles yesterday and as the company has more to obsess over than customers these days there's its growing work force, labor activists, regulators, and lawmakers scrutinizing its size and influence. as always there are still investors looking for ever more growth at a time when amazon is facing more competition than ever in cloud, and ecommerce sales that are set to slow post-pandemic. bezos as executive chair he will still be involved in all the major decisions but it will fall on andy jassy to -and-a-half k - navigate this delicate new balance. jassy is likely the one to face congress and anti-trust

pressure much in the same way that task has found on alphabet's sunder pi pichai if anyone can follow bezos and his playbook, it is andrew jassy. he has been there since the very beginning and of course pioneered its cloud business as for building amazon's next pillar bezos hinted a few months ago that it could be media and entertainment through amazon studio that is something to watch out for. coming up on tech check, we will be speaking with john doerr, one of the earliest amazon investors. these two tech nerds, doerr and bezos met in '96 and immediately hit it off few people know the company better than him. >> we're going to be looking forward to that interview, deirdre bosa, thank you. speaking of jeff bezos, virgin galactic, bezos's space company's competitor is planning to take richard branson to space

before him, as the battle of the billionaires is reaching a whole new level. do not miss our interview with michael colglazier in the next 20 minutes futures are pointing to a higher open, and the opening bell is just five minutes away

cyc welcome back, we're about a minute away from beginning trading here, of course ahead of a long weekend mike santoli, i'm looking at an s&p that's up 15% essentially for the first half of this year. we asked you all those questions yesterday, what we can expect for the second half, but anything that the market may key off of in particular obviously given we did get the jobs number, although that's not necessarily indicative oftentimes of what we can expect in the market. >> i think that the jobs number at least took away the immediate fear that there was going to be something to change the equation for the fed. doesn't seem to be the case. we do have a flattening yield curve. therefore yield's lower. the s&p up half a percent on the first day.

also six days in a row with new records on the s&p that's getting a little stretch in the short-term. >> come out of the so-called june -- although june was better than expected. >> absolutely. so seasonals up until the middle of july, at least by the history books anyway >> there you hear the opening bell that is the united states coast guard, the celebration of independence day >> happy birthday, america >> when they entered the floor as well, that's the nation's largest network for electric vehicles, i believe, phil lebeau going to be bringing us the ceo. we've had him on a couple of times before of that company as well all right, we get started with trading here and the s&p is up yet again, mike, at least in the first second here. look at that old heat map. what happened to the heat map? maybe there's a malfunction. oh, it's gone for now. right, we're doing some work back in the studio. >> it's on hiatus at this point.

>> people were asking what happened to the heat map i'm telling you it will be back. don't you worry. the nasdaq right now at least outperforming, and i'm looking at some of the names we've been following so closely nvidia, just incredible. >> incredible, yes. >> and well over half a trillion dollars market value right now as it continues to move higher. >> nvidia had been carrying the whole semiconductor sector amd has come back towards the high basically it's been nvidia almost at exclusion of the rest. does that change the interpretation of what the semi group is saying or not, unclear, but that's been an unstoppable one. i see a little bit of giveback in the energy stocks today so again, we're on this little bit of a seesaw we sometimes are where lower yields, let's buy the growth stocks and the recently strong energy stocks waiting for the opec decision there too have given back a little bit. >> that's right. energy, utilities, financials, materials are the sectors in the red right now.

tech higher again, best perfper performing sector for the week so far in terms of nvidia, there's all the speculation that when we see that happen it could potentially be brought into the dow as well, which i think speaks to, again, how tech focused not only the market has been for years now, but also just the economy and the future of where the economy's going. >> yeah, which whether that really is going to translate quickly into entering the dow or not, and by the way, if that even matters anymore i would look back to tesla and apple stock splits last summer because there was massive runs in the stocks after the splits were announced, when the splits became effective, that was your nasdaq top for that moment and for those stocks for a while i mean, if that's the reason you're buying, it's kind of similarly. presumably it's not the main reason people are buying nvidia, but who can tell. >> we're waiting on that arm acquisition, which continues tto be a real question mark. let's not forget, we began this

week with facebook crossing the trillion dollar mark in market value as a result of the success they had in terms of throwing out the ftc case against them. they do have 30 days or so to come back with an amended complaint. facebook shares up 30% to your point, i mean, alphabet, amazon, which we've been talking about, 1.73 trillion, alphabet, 1.7 trillion i don't get tired of saying these numbers because they're so extraordinary, mike, and having done this for as long as we both have, i mean, sometimes you just have to stop and say, whoa. >> right, you have to sort of explain yourself again, how big a trillion is. and really, the overall stock market is about $40 trillion give or take that's obviously an enormous number, but the concentration of those top five stocks also peaked last labor day. we are down from there in terms of their waiting but still very high historically. they punch above their weight in terms of profit contribution and what they mean for the market. but the other types of squawks,

the cyclical stocks have done so well in the interim since really october 30th that it's kind of balanced things out at least slightly. >> in the meantime we've had a flurry of ipos and companies going public this week a few names that merged and closed with spacs but more or less it's largely been the more traditional ipos whether it is krispy kreme or sentinelone or clear or didi, of course now we finally get this awaited, highly anticipated filing from robinhood as well, and those numbers are eye popping too. >> they are. just in terms of the pace of growth, how searing hot the first quarter was in crypto and options trading, but also -- >> as a part of the crypto really speaks to some of the frenzy we've seen this year as well. >> no doubt. in looking through the s-1 a bit, it is surprising to some extent just how much of their revenue and/or at least potential profitability is a result of order flow almost all of it

>> you wonder is that a sustainable business model when this company's going to come public, obviously it's got a great growth profile, and you've had a lot of people enter the platform, some of whom have made plenty of money are those sticky relationships that can grow to actually really become a true fee relationship the likes of which of course some of the companies that we know so well have been able to harness. i don't know the answer. >> the relationships are extremely sticky the big market makers are going to be there and are willing to take that order flow and pay for it for as long as -- >> but i'm talking about the relationship between the consumer and the platform itself. >> yeah, that's totally unclear. >> that's what you want to cement, and it's very much unclear to me whether that will really be the case. >> the majority of the revenue, of the transaction revenue is from options and crypto. that's because of course they charge zero commissions on stock trading, but those are the high turnover really engaged customers. so you have 18 million of them

now. what's your actual advantage besides brand, and besides being the easy to download app and the one that your friends are doing? that's a powerful thing, but in terms of the innovation or the edge, you know, ameritrade's got it, everyone's at zero commissions. they have the platforms, you know, that have been in place for a long time, so it's you been -- it's unclear what there is there and is the overall market going to grow fast enough that it doesn't matter they can just get their piece. >> we'll be talking a lot more about robinhood. we want to turn to phil lebeau with breaking news on boeing phil >> david, take a look at shares of boeing. there is a report out of hawaii that there was a cargo 737 that experienced engine trouble after taking off of honolulu and that they tried to turn around and get back to the airport and they had to put the plane down in the water. unclear at this point if there is a rescue operation that's taking place the severity of this crash, and other details in terms of the

type of 737 that may be involved in this potential accident but again, the initial report that we have is that this was a cargo version of a 737 that experienced engine trouble after leaving honolulu the pilots were turning around, trying to get back to the airport, and the report is that they had to put it down in the water. we're going to hopefully get some more details here shortly, guys that's the story that we're tracking at this time. >> phil, thank you we'll get back to you as we get more details. morgan mentioned what has been a very strong work for ipos this didi story is extraordinary that comes public, yesterday a very strong day in the markets and today we get the news that the regulators a at least looking at a number of different things involving the company you would have thought perhaps that was a risk factor and/or something. i mean, there was some foreshadowing of it a few weeks ago in some reporting. you wonder as well, the chinese

don't like the fact they listed here, want to screw with us to some extent. >> they do have a major anniversary in that country as well that was celebrated this week there's a sense of nationalism perhaps, even more so at least from a public standpoint given some of the commentary we got around that anniversary. >> and telling the company to stop signing up new users, you wonder just exactly how big that is given that the markets -- so they have a lot of existing users and if it's not just a kind of gesture to tighten the reins a little bit and say we're here don't get too big. >> didi shares are down over 7%. again, after a nice move yesterday and still above where it came public there are a lot of other companies. we talked about this briefly in the last half hour there are a lot of other companies that have been hit, mike so many that we've watched go public in our markets. perhaps some of them get lost to a certain extent they have significant shareholder basis of american investors. the education stocks, for example, just got absolutely

obliterated many of these names, that was back when sammer said these private touring companies, we've got some issues with them. think they're false advertising, deceptive practices. it's been one thing after another. >> and it's not -- it's not from china, either, right depending on the company, depending on the sector, depending on how the u.s. government is focusing on and thinking about some of these chinese names listed in the u.s. you've seen pushback in terms of future listings. the crackdown in terms of national security concerns as well it would seem like some of these companies are really getting it from both sides. >> yeah, no doubt about it for a while you're right, anything that was just sort of a play on the domestic chinese economy listed here just flew, and now it's completely become unwound. it is time now for the bond report let's take a look at how treasuries are faring on this jobs friday. no major move following the june employment report.

although the initial twitch was lower. you hear around 1.454 on the ten-year, and a decline in the five-year to 0.9%. we can finish with a look at the u.s. dollar index which has actually been strong it's been picking up the pace over the last several days it was threatening these highs from earlier in the year you see it moderating right now, still at a multiweek high. >> and probably adding to the pressure we've seen on some commodity prices as of late as well up next, sir richard branson looking to beat jeff bezos to space with the help of his space company virgin galactic. we have an interview with the company's ceo michael colglazier, th iats coming up when "squawk on the street" returns. stay with us do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy, even a term policy, for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized that we needed a way to supplement our income. if you

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i'm dad's greatest sandcastle - and greatest memory! but even i'm not as memorable as eating turkey hill chocolate peanut butter cup ice cream with real cocoa. well, that's the way the sandcastle crumbles. you can't beat turkey hill memories. welcome back take a look at shares of virgin galactic up 19% right now. the company announcing it will attempt to launch its next test flight -- flight test on july 11th, which will carry founder sir richard branson. branson is looking to beat fellow billionaire jeff bezos to space as bezos looks to launch his own company blue origin on

that company's new shepherd capsule on july 20th joining us now is virgin galactic's ceo michael colglazier great to have you back on. thanks for joining us today. >> good morning, morgan. good day to be here. >> yeah, what an exciting couple of weeks we have ahead of us you know, i spoke to sir richard earlier this week when your sister company virgin orbit successfully carried satellites to orbit, and at that time when i asked him what the game plan was for him to go to space, he said that he was waiting for the engineers to tell me when i can go to space, quote, unquote. you take that, you couple it with the faa approval last friday, how long has this plan been in the works? >> well, the plan has been in the works, you know, for quite some time because we've had this test flight program going on, and as you know, we have four test flights we were planning to do we did our first on may 22nd, and it was excellent, and it showed that we are technically

ready to gochlt we did a lot of diligent analysis after that flight that's the same data we go to the faa. that's what the faa used to approve our commercial license going forward. and when we finished that analysis, we knew we would be pivoting from focus on technical side of flight test to the feocs on the cabin experience and what the astronaut experience would be like for these next two flights. but we had to waitntil the technical work was done and richard was patient about that as we shift the focus to now the private astronaut experience and the cabin environment, these next two test flights are pretty much going to be the same. we originally had thought we may rehearse and have somebody stand in for richard just to kind of show what would be going on. we realized most of that training's done on the ground, and so we had a chance to say, richard, you can go on either of these two flights. which would you prefer you can kind of imagine what he had to say back, and he's excited to go now that it's ready. >> given the fact that there has

been that switch, the fact that he's going to be on this test flight sooner now, i do wonder, though, i mean, was the news that your direct kcompetitor blu origin sending that company's founder to space a factor for this decision in change in time line >> absolutely not, and i know it's a fun headline, and i know a lot of media like that headline we only fly when we've assessed all of our data and we are safe to fly and ready to fly. and we've been working on that -- we announced quite some time ago that we'd be running these test flights and the next two would be in the summer so waiting for the analysis, we've been planning for some time that our next of the test flights would be somewhere around mid-july. so that plan's been going. we finished the data analysis, and that allowed us to announce our flight date yesterday, and then we've also been planning for richard to be one of our test mission specialists because we wanted him to represent all

the future astronauts who are coming this is going to be an amazing transformative event for people that they plan for for much of their lives and are excited for it better for richard when he comes back for us to interview and say okay, how was that how did we deliver how did we set up the training program? was the journey that we took you on for the year in advance and the week in advance in new mexico, did it set you up for this amazing moment above the earth? and that's his role, and we've been planning for him to do that for quite a while. the ship's now ready he's been really patient about it, but now it's time. >> yeah, and certainly i think back to last year pre-pandemic, i mean, the game plan had been for him to fly around his birthday, which is july 18th, so perhaps not that surprising to see it happen this month in light of that as well. that being said, what is he going to experience, he and his three crew mates, and what does that training ahead of time entail >> sure. this group of four mission specialists are going to

experience exactly what our future astronauts going to experience so the training actually starts well in advance, as you know, richard's been ready for years and working on his training for that, but specifically for the week before the flight, there's a period of very focused training it's about building muscle memory for how you will work within the cabin, but it's also getting ready kind of physically, spiritually, emotionally, intellectually. the moments in weightlessness looking back over the earth are rather few over a lifetime we want to make sure the memory's so strong and powerful it will last with you through a lifetime all of our training is setting up on that memory. that's what we're taking richard and his team this upcoming week, and that's what we'll be asking when he comes back. >> safety is of the utmost importance how are you planning for that? what does that look like >> well, i'd say safety is built in at the foundation of everything we do, and you know,

you mentioned we were originally planning to fly richard well back like a year ago, and we had more test flights to do. we had more efforts to go, so we never really worry about the schedule driving anything. we worry about our technical readiness driving everything and so that's how this company works. that's how we're built that's what we're embedding in the culture of this. so now that the technical readiness is there and it's there because of the data that shows it's there and it's there because of the diligence of the team that works on this so hard. so now that that is ready, it does really give us the ability to focus on the next phase, the cabin experience, and now we're going to get repetition and repeating under our belt on the technical flights. the last flight in may flew just as we wanted it to go. we're just going to keep doing that flight profile and move forward, but this takes us another step to opening the door of making space accessible for far more people than has ever been possible, and that's pretty exciting. >> whether it's branson who is

one of the world's most prolific entrepreneurs and certainly a business celebrity and overseas not just as a founder of not just virgin galactic but so many other companies within the virgin landscape or whether it's future passengers that will be coming on board, what is the insurance situation look like? how from that standpoint >> well, right now we're doing our flight test program so these are all mission specialists at the company that are part of the flight test engineering plan when we do build into commercial service, i'm sure there is going to be a lot going on in the insurance industry around it because it is a new industry and the insurance industry will be bringing new things to the table as well but that will be part of our commercial service launch. >> michael, it's david faber, and listening to morgan's reporting on this for some time, and obviously you, and so many of your team that you brought on, where are you in terms of the assessment of what the total addressable market is for people

who are going to want to go into space in 2022 and most importantly i guess beyond that? >> well, we view, i'd say, we look at this market in terms of say the next five years and then the next decade and where it goes from there, but in the reasonably short to medium term, this is going to be a mark that well exceeds our capacity to fill it. i think what we're doing, what others are doing, is adding excitement and the normalization to the excitement of human space flight so we believe the market for that is extremely strong what we need to do now at virgin galactic is to build the ships to serve that market and as we do this and more and more people come back on first tracks and bring the story down, oh, my goodness, that was the most incredible experience, tand really did change my life, i think that will feed this market going forward and so that's our

plan, is to demonstrate through these early flights how powerful this experience will be. we already have 600 people signed up, as we mentioned, we'll be opening up sales following the second of these test flights, so probably at the end of summer, and we expect that to be very robust, because we're going toing limiting our capacity for a while, and then we will get it opened up and it will be something that many people can aspire to >> so i realize you said that the decision to fly on july 11th has nothing to do with the competition. that being said, space twitter has been, to use a phrase i've used a lot in the last of couple of days, a lot of quote-unquote space shade thrown around. i want to get your reaction to blue origin, we wish him a great and safe flight, but they're not flying above the line and it is a very different experience. >> first, i'd say we always wish them just the best, they do

amazing things, they do a lot of amazing things and the more people who go to space, the more we open the door for everybody else, so we're excited about that, we're going above the sn astronaut line, we're the only company that has flown private astronauts up above the astronaut line and come down with astronaut rings so i think opening up space is not going to a destination or point, opening space is going to space and being weightless and looking down at this planet and recognizing our place in it, and our entire company is built for that purpose that's what we do. i think blue and others will do amazing things they have other business models, too. but virgin galactic is built specifically to bring all of us into space, and give them this experience and i think we're going to do an amazing job of it. >> michael, we appreciate you coming on with us.

i know you have a busy week and a half ahead of you and i look forward to perhaps seeing you on the ground in new mexico next weekend. >> i hope you make it. it's incredible. >> i'm planning to. >> it's incredible to be there and if you miss it, make sure you see the large stream, because that is going to be an incredible show. >> thanks for joining us today >> bye-bye now. "squawk on the street" is going to be right back with the s&p and nasdaq hti fshitngre record highs this morning.

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good friday morning and welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street," i'm david faber with morgan brennan and mark santoli, we are here at the new york stock exchange, carl has the morning off, let's give you a look at markets half hour into trading coming off the jobs number, better than expected, and there you can see the s&p, and the nasdaq, both having strong days, following of course what has been a

relatively strong week for those indices. factory orders out just moments ago. rick santelli has that for us. rick thank you, david factory orders, a may number, expecting 1.6, did better than expected, up 1.7, and that is the second highest read of the year, i'll tell you, january, which was up 2.3, a revision in the rearview mirror, but a positive one, from minus 0.6 all the way to minus 0.1 you strip out transportation, you're still up 0.7. so you can see transportation did contribute but still a positive number. and the revision doubled last month from a half a percent to a whole percent. in durable goods, we take the mid month read and we toss it. it remains the same. the second highest read of the year outside of january up 2.4 if you look at ex h-transportato on durable good, exactly the

same mid month as well capital goods orders, nondefense aircraft, a favorite of mine, a proxy for business spending and originally mid month was down 0.1. and finally up 0.1 and that is good news. the last negative news was february down 0.3. it was comps to that month, 2.7 last month, and that up 2.7 last month doesn't seem to be getting revised. we'll keep that one the same for now. and finally, capital goods shipments, nondefense ex-aircraft, up 1.1% morgan, back to you. >> i like to look at those defense numbers myself rick santelli, thank you have a great weekend 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big mover we are watching this morning. we will start with didi sinking two days after going public following news that china's cyber space administration will conduct a cyber security investigation into didi's operations, and it is also asking didi to cease new user

registrations while that investigation is under way you can see those shares down 5% right now. plus, raytheon technologies, speaking of defense, winning a $2 billion air force contract to produce nuclear arms cruise missiles, that's 20% year to date, it is about flat right now because it is the first time the biden administration is actually putting money toward nuclear modernization, which is going to be a very big ticket investment over the coming years. and finally, we will end with tesla, delivering 201,000 vehicles in the second quarter, and that's falling short of expectations nonetheless, you can see those shares are up about 1.5% on this friday morning. phil lebeau, the news he brought us earlier about a 737 cargo in the water off honolulu. phil >> david, good news, the crew, two pilots have been rescued by the coast guard off the coast of oahu, as the coast guard responded to a boeing 737, this

was a cargo version of the 737, that was attempting to return to honolulu, when they experienced engine problems. they had to put the plane down in the water, and they did a belly landing. which as anybody who is familiar with aviation realizes, that is not easy to do i know it has been done a few times, very rarely, it is successful where there is not a major crash and a plane breaks apart, but in this case, they were able to rescue the crew they're still investigating. the ntsb and the faa are looking into this. this is a cargo boeing 737 don't have any other details in terms of the type of 737, the engines, et cetera, but certainly good news that the crew have been rescued guys, back to you. >> thank you phil lebeau. well, the u.s. added 850,000 jobs in june but the economy is still dealing with what is a labor shortage. our steve liesman has the story for us

steve? >> good morning, david, yes, the payrolls expected stronger than expected, for the first time in three months and raising the question whether we're finally on the cusp of the massive rebound, including people coming back to the work force that has been expected or this report would be out, 508,000 was the number 706,000 was expected unemployment rate though, 5.9%, actually ticking up with an increase in the unemployed, average hourly earnings a modest 0.3% because of low wage jobs created, and the labor force participation rate 61.6%. unchanged. no big return to the work force. leisure and hospitality, that's what you would expect. 343,000 jobs added there and government coming back 188,000. but still, well below where it was before the pandemic. retail also adding manufacturing as well. but construction declining that could be a problem with both lumber prices, other issues as well as finding workers to build those homes. u.s. economy, overall, add it

all up, still short 7.3 million jobs compared to where it was before the pandemic and the labor force, 3.3 million below where it was before the pandemic that leads pantheon, ian shepherdson saying this report signals incremental progress in the pace of job growth but there's no sign yet of a shift back into the labor force. the missing millions are still missing. and capital mikts andrew hunter, says we are still skeptical that this marks the start of a stronger trend if it does, however, this could see recent calls from several calls, for asset potentials, and potentially for a first rate hike as soon as next year, get louder we will probably have to wait until the fall, once schools reopen, health care concerns are passed and the global economy open, before we know how acute the labor shortage is and whether wages need to keep rising to attract people back into the labor force and that of course, david, would fuel inflation concerns >> i'm actually going to pick it up, steve, thank you steve liesman. it's the billionaire space, sir

richard branson will now make the long-awaited trip to the edge of space next sunday, nine days before direct competitor blue origin sends jeff bezos virgin black tick shares rocketing up 16% we spoke with virgin galactic's ceo in the last hour take a listen. >> we originally thought we would maybe rehearse and have somebody stand in for richard, just to kind of show what would be going on, we realized most of that training is done on the ground, and so we had the chance to say to richard, you can go on either of these two flights, which would you prefer, and you can kind of imagine what he had to say back, and he's excited to go now that it's ready >> it is going to be a busy couple of weeks when it comes to the advent of space tourism which you guys heard me go on about for years now, but we're finally sort of fitting this tipping point. what's still a little bit unclear and i know we discussed with this colglazier as well, specifically what the total addressable market looks like

and we do know that he just said that they do expect demand to exceed capacity and at least in the coming year, and i think that's also worth noting, we can talk about how these are competitors, we can talk about the so-called branson versus bezos billionaire space race and two companies on two very specific vision-driven trajectories, where virgin galactic is concerned, longer term, they designed a system that is meant for high speed travel longer term, that could be very disruptive in terms of super sonic, hyper sonic travel around earth with space tourism and blue origin, this is focused on data and redundancies and ability to build out a much bigger rocket that will go to orbit and eventually colonize lower earth orbit and the moon, on and on and on but in general it speaks to the visions that are decades in the making. coming to fruition and of course, we haven't even talked about elon musk who by the way, as his new rocket starship poised to also make the

first orbital test flight as well. >> virgin galactic is the only one that trades publicly so we can from an investor perspective, i think it is fascinating and how much capital is this business going to need to consume over time, to build more and more of these ships, to take, to meet potentially the demand that's there, and then, you know, where do they come, in 600 orders, 250,000 a pop, but how far does the pricing come down to open up the market even more broad limit obviously we've seen the stock at higher levels, and it's been quite volatile and i guess it will trade off of orders or interest, but at some point you wonder what the numbers will look like. >> the shear excitement that this is here and now. >> it is a $13 billion market valuation. before the pandemic. so shortly after the spac merger that created the company, it would peak at 5 billion, and when it peaked at 5 billion, they were still relying on projections that this year, they were going to have 200 million in revenue, and next year they

would have 400 million in revenue, so 5 billion, based on those projection, and now 13 billion, based on, what? maybe 50 next year is the consensus, 50 million for revenue next year? so it's feeding off of the excitement, just unclear how it knits back into the business. >> and don't forget, like what we saw with so many other industries and businesses, the pandemic and everything through a wrench into everything, and 2020 was seen as the year of commercial space flight, human space flight and that is sort of pushed back in terms of the time line and i'd also just note we do have a number of other pure play commercial space, so-called new space companies that are in the pipeline to go public. we had one de-spac yesterday astra trading higher so virgin galactic in many ways has benefitted from the fact that there weren't these other new space names to trade, that is going to start to change and increase, and buffer out, as well speaking of bezos, today is his last trading day as amazon's ceo, and for more on how this

transition could impact investors, we are joined by jeffries, brent thanks for being with us today. >> good morning. >> key things that investors need to know as jack takes the reins. >> i think having a software back ground is important, high margin, and so many vast things to do in the econ, media business, and maybe he is not aware of and doesn't know as much and a low margin business and does he emphasize the higher occurring revenue streams. i think the answer is yes but delegate others to fill in the gaps of the other businesses so i look at it and saying, that you have a ceo in now that really appreciates what we think is the most exciting element to this story, which is, you know, the ad business, which is high margin, and the software business in the u.s., so we

think they're in great shape with his perspective and i think there have been many reports that he is very good at delegating, some of the areas that he doesn't know as much, he's filling in. i think everyone is asking what is the next key leg of growth, we still look at the health care market as a tremendous opportunity for amazon, both in the software and the distribution logistics network is a big one and secondarily, you can barely scratch the surface on the software side and come off the stack and platform service on sas and other areas, over time, they don't need to do that today, but they could as a call option. so we still see a lot of engines of growth left, and don't really expect the company's overall strategic direction will change dramatically >> makes sense i mean you do have to point out though the fact that he's coming in at a very key time for this company, given all of the anti-trust, the monopoly scrutiny that is afoot where amazon is concerned, not just here in this country but abroad as well. i realize investors have largely

kind of shrugged this off so far, but at what point does that potentially change, if it does >> i think investors are still worried, and the stock is only up 6%. it trades at 18 times ebitda, it's not an expensive name from our perspective, even while it has done so well over a period of time, but we do think, as it relates to the internet space, there's a huge overhang still, even though many of the issues may clear with facebook, and which is a relief rally, we think this is not going to away, that there will be increasing, you know, regulatory pressure, you know, from local communities, from the government here in the u.s., and abroad, and that's not going to go away, what i think the one common theme is that any time there's a big concern on the stock, it's a great buy and we think there's ongoing concern with that, and the play book is set, in tech, for the last 20 years, we went through this with microsoft in the '90s phenomenal return on the fear of the eu investigation so any investigation is an opportunity in our opinion, and it is has proven out recently in

facebook that it is a good opportunity to buy when that fear settles in. >> brent, what role do you expect bezos to play day to day at amazon as executive chair and do you think that's going to differ greatly from the role he's been playing more recently, as jassy is taking on more responsibility >> we don't think it will change much i think ultimately, he will give plenty of great advice when he needs it, when jassy needs it but i think ultimately amazon has so many initiatives under way and this concept of bailing fast, they bail out of things fast, and this is the same analogy when cook took over for jobs at apple and everyone thought the company was done what is the future growth? we think there are so many great initiatives under way that have so much momentum, for example, for 20 years, in every startup that we work with, with jeffries, 90% of these companies

are gone on to aws these are five, 10-year contracts. so that visibility is incredible and incredibly high margin so that's one example of where i just don't think that much is going to change. he's been there for so long, he's been part of the dna, and ultimately done a phenomenal job building one of the best and highest growth and highest margin technology businesses. >> brent thill, thanks for joining us here is a look at the road map for the rest of the hour including bitcoin, trying to hold on to the weekly gains but most investors believe crypto will drop below 30,000 by year end. according to a survey for which we will discuss the results in more detail. plus an exclusive, goldman's chief economist, taking a closer look at today's job numbers. and electric vehicle charging network completing the $2 billion spac deal,

essentially de-spac'ing. wl speak to the ceo exclusively later this hour.

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on the nations fastest, most reliable network. let's get a quick check on bitcoin at this hour range-bound this week. but you can see there it's up about 1% at the moment a bit over $33,300 right now, our cnbc stock survey showing 44% of participants believe the cryptocurrency will end the year below 30,000

so fewer than half thinks it has 10% down side at this point. joining us to discuss is needham and company's chief crypto and block chain analyst. >> thanks for having me. >> talk a little bit about what's been going on, on the mining side of things, on the investment in the overall kind of infrastructure of bitcoin, after these moves by china to restrict some of that, how does that feed into, if at all, into the trading parts of bitcoin >> definitely. so you know, the chinese clamp-down, they started around mid may, we saw more than 50% of the hash during that period. and in the long run, i think this is a net positive for the bitcoin sector and i think a lot of folks agree with that and i think a lot of market participants would agree with that, so what is happening now is we're seeing some decentralization of some of this mining activity so maybe in the short term, there was some volatility in markets because of

that, because miners might be, you know, selling bitcoin in order to get more liquid, so they can move to different countries and start up some of those operations but right now, for the miners that can stay online, so u.s., canada, central asia, other regions outside china, they're going to be operating at higher profit margins so we have a network difficulty coming up today, where it is the largest network difficulty adjustment in bitcoin history, fall 27% due to the hash rate coming offline in china but what that does, it makes the miners that are online way more profitable so i think some of the market volatility has come from some of these chinese miners going offline, but in the long run, it's going to increase decentralization and for the miners who can stay online, the profit margins are just going to increase. >> just to zoom in on that point about the difficulty of mining, going down, so the system kind of regulates itself, right so it counters the fact that there's less computing power being dedicated to mining new ones, so it makes the complexity

of those calculations lower, so in other words, it doesn't necessarily change the number of bitcoin that will be brought into the world, it's just kind of, it is about miners margins at that point. but how much of the activity, just in sum, is mining the stuff, investing in the mining of the stuff, trading it, doing arbitrage against the futures, versus anything else that is getting accomplished or transacted in bitcoin? >> i would say most of the activity in bitcoin and other crypto assets as well, is still financial transactions and most of that is trading, right? you know, outside of that, sure, there's some miners that are hedging, and looking at futures and hedge out the risk that way. for the most part, a lot of it is trading in the space, a lot of it is speck latering, a lot of it is -- speculating, a lot of it is funds looking at bitcoins as a store of value as to gold and want to get exposure

that way you have the investing and the payment application, and you saw the phenomenal job, el salvador make bitcoin a legal tender in the country, so you're starting to see some more of a payment adoption, some of these crypto networks can be useful for remittances because the fees can be lower relative to traditional payment processors so there are some applications outside of the trading activity going on in this space but i would say right now, it is still mostly dominated by investment and trading purposes. >> john, it's morgan certainly payment adoption is in many ways the holy grail when it comes to mainstream adoption and use of cryptocurrency, bitcoin, that being said when you have a clampdown in china, or you have central banks, thinking about mexico or even some officials here in the u.s., earlier this week, pushing back against bitcoin, is that negative for the cryptocurrency or is that actually positive and bolster the use case for it? >> look, i mean it would be great if every country around

the world embraced bit koichb and central banks added it to their kblbalance sheet and that would be terrific for the space and the reality is that's not going to happen and what came out of china speaks more to china than necessarily bitcoin and china has regulated facebook, google, other companies in the past and for them to go after an open space financial network like bitcoin, that is sort of par for the course other governments may take a different approach but as we've seen with el salvador, the u.s. has been fairly regulatory, you know, beneficial to the networking crypto assets on the grand scheme of things so i don't think countries are necessarily going to step in and really kind of clamp down, like china did, i think that was more specific to china, and now to your point about cbdcs, some of these other digital currencies issue bid a central bank could come out and certainly compete with bitcoin and other payment networks like ethereum and stuff like that, i think the overlap right now is less so bitcoin and

more so stable coin. so you have these private networks issuing stable coins, i think that's going to be the overlap. >> kind of a overall market. appreciate your time, john, thank you. >> thanks. we want to get to news on ibm. >> this just crossing the wires. this is the first major leadership shuffle under ceo arvin crushthat, the top headline, that the ibm president jim whitehurst is leaving ibm. of course, whitehurst came to ibm as ceo of redhat, ibm the biggest acquisition, the biggest software acquisition ever, and a key part of amazon's, sorry, of ibm's hybrid strategy going forward, taking on the strategies of amazon, microsoft, google and others, in the cloud, but the formal position of flexibility, redhat an important part of the story, an important part of arvin's work at ibm even

before he became ceo, whitehurst is leaving, a bit of a surprise to me in a way because once he became president of ibm overall, many people talked about him as a potential successor at some point. also, bridget is leaving, a long-time ibm senior executive, she will be retiring after about a year, staying on working on special projects and then there is also a series of other promotions around who's going to be svp global markets rob thomas will take that. and i would point out a couple of others. kelly promoted to senior vice president americas, strategic sales, et cetera so a number of shuffles, but the most important one there, ibm's president, jim whitehurst is going to be leaving the company, back to you. >> shares are reacting negatively i think back when they purchased

redhat, i think the whole picture is it is platform agnostic and they will run it separately in many ways kind of siloed from the rest of ibm, the fact that he is leaving, is that the strategy or what do you think is happening >> i don't think siloed so much from ibm, but arvin has told me this, it is really about what the customer needs to make their business work and we're open to not just selling them within ibm, but selling them, morgan, what they need in this new hybrid environment i expect that strategy will continue to be the strategy, but jim whitehurst will not be a part of executing it. >> john, thank you for bringing us the news. we'll see you in the next hour the next half hour, i should say. we will take a look at the biggest laggards on the s&p, right now, as we do head to a quick break. it's walgreen's, carnival, norwegian, live nation, and valero, the losses for the week. as you know. even though the st. petap is pod

for gains on this friday morning. we'll be right back. ♪♪

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here's your cnbc news update in a developing story this morning, the two pilots of a boeing 737 cargo plane have been rescued by the coast guard after they were forced to land the plane in the water near honolulu the faa says the pilots reported engine trouble and trying to get back to the airport. no one else was aboard. the first hurricane of the atlantic season, the category one storm is bringing heavy rains and strong winds to barbados and heading to saint vincent and the grenadines and could hit florida by next tuesday. the u.s. supreme court will hear an appeal in the case involving religious liberty and gay rights a washington state florist was fined after refusing, due to her christian beliefs, to make a flower arrangement for a same-sex wedding it had been upheld by a lower court and the ruling remains intact. sha'carri richardson has

received a one month suspension after testing positive for cannabis during the olympic trials and won't win the 100 meters at the games in tokyo so on nbc today, she ingested marijuana soon after learning her biological mother died, but said that's no excuse. >> this honestly was something where i'm responsible for my actions, i know what i did, i know what i'm supposed to do i'm allowed not to go, making that decision. >> there you go, david, that's the news update. >> thank you. june payrolls beating estimate, 850,000 jobs were added but the economy remains 6.8 million jobs short of where it was before the pandemic jan hatzius joins us now goldman chief economist. just quickly give me your take on the number. >> i thought it was obviously a strong payroll gain and therefore encouraging for a

couple more disappointing numbers. i think we also learned that the explanations for the weaker numbers in april and may may be seasonal, it is probably weighing on job growth, and probably some impact from the unemployment benefits, and labor supply, that those probably are pretty good explanations so i think it is reassuring in that sense at the same time, slightly higher unemployment rate, underscores how far we still have to go to get back to more global monetary conditions >> what did we learn from the report, jan, about the so-called labor shortage and obviously on the other side of that, the significant increase in wages that we've seen? >> i think we learned that the labor shortage is to some degree probably driven by the still very unusual conditions we're in

the unusually high benefits, which are putting a lot of upward pressure on wages at the bottom end of the income distribution, with a very high increase, 1%, overall, 2%, among production and nonsupervisory workers around leisure and hospitality sector and i think that is a key observation but i also think that the pandemic is still a factor in, you know, in the labor supply, and so i do think that at the moment, they are definitely shortages but i also think that over the next several months, we should see a large increase in the labor supply, as all of this normalizes, to a significant degree >> i would suggest that, you know, the federal reserve probably looking for an opportunity to be patient about whether they make determinations about labor supply, whether in fact the market is tighter than they have anticipated, so how would you say that this is going

to be taken or feed into the fed stance, and what they're looking to see develop over the summer >> i don't think it's really going to change the debate very much, there obviously are some differences of opinion on the committee at the moment, and there are some that would like to start tapering pretty soon, but it still seems to me that the consensus view, and the leadership view is probably going to be to wait. so our forecast remains that the tapering announcement is going to come at the december meeting, and to start it early 2022, and i think, you know, especially if you look at the continuing jobs short fall, and the household survey, that has been i think supported by these numbers to date, but i don't think it changes the debate substantially. >> jan, when we talk about tapering, i mean mortgage-backed

securities, how do you think the fed is approaching that piece of the tapering, given the fact that the housing numbers have just been robust is not even a strong enough word for it, just what we're seeing in terms of housing right now? >> yeah, i think that has fueled the debate of whether you should taper down the $40 billion per month of mbs purchases somewhat faster than the $80 billion of treasury purchases i think that's an open question. our working assumption is that the tapering is going to be proportional but there could be some people on the other side of that, i think that this is probably going to be proportional, $10 billion of tapering, in treasuries, 5 billion of mortgage-backed securities, and that would give you eight meetings for the tapering process, which basically means a year so if they start in january, that would mean they're done by

the end of 2022, and then in 2023, rate hikes would be on the table, although we think probably still going to take until the second half of the year, before the first rate hike occurs >> now that we're in july, we increasingly next year's outlook for the economy, and for earnings, starts to become a little more crucial, to how the markets behave and there has been some sensitivity to the segments of the market to the idea that we're past this peak acceleration point, do we stay in 2022 growing above trend? where do you think things settle out? >> our expectation is that we will see a pretty meaningful slowdown we have been very positive on growth in 2021, there's a lot of room for normalization and obviously the economy is rolling very quickly at the moment and you can see that, i think, in many indicators, including today's payroll number but a lot of this is driven by the reopening of the economy,

which is going to be completed, or at least won't have as much of an impact a few months down the road and then the fiscal numbers in 2021, is going to set up for the fiscal drag in 2022, and i think that is going to mean slower growth, trend growth, in all four, in the second half of the year, maybe a little bit below 2%, if you just take q3 and q4, 2022, but yeah, i don't think that's a bad thing, because it is one reason why we don't expect the economy to overheat but it is going to be a significant change, obviously, in the business environment, and for earnings as you say. >> jan, always appreciate it, thank you. >> thanks very much. >> jan hatzius. we were just talking about housing, the second quarter was the strongest for manhattan real estate sales since 2007. robert frank is in new york with

what is fuelling this rapid reversal and boom. robert >> good morning, morgan. manhattan apartment sales up 150% in the quarter over last year and up 60% versus 2019 way before the pandemic. and if you look at prices, they have actually started to increase again in manhattan, the average price up 2% over last year, the average apartment will now comfort you $1.9 million this is a market now that is driven almost entirely at the top, and i mean the top, when you look at penthouse sales, there were over 220 excepthouses sold year to date so far, that is far and away a record, and we're right now at a penthouse in hudson yards, this is on the 90th floor of a new tower here, this is called a compound in the sky, because it's got everything, this is the dining room, it's seating ten people, it's got a library, it's got a gym, even though you're right above the new equinox hotel, it

is 10,000 square feet inside, plus you have the balcony, this is the highest terrace on the market, in new york, right now, this property right now is on the market for $59 million there was a smaller penthouse that just sold for $29 million so again, penthouses, huge prices right now, they're getting them, and there is strong demand. david, back to you >> robert, real quick to you, i mean somebody doesn't have to look far, all they have to do is look down at all of the office space with hudson yards with the biggest employers of the city, to some extent, that remain largely empty, to wonder about the act of new york to grow economically is that not a concern at all for the very well-healed people who are buying these apartments potentially having to pay more in taxes somehow >> that is the paradox, david. and people, even the bullish brokers never expected that this

real estate recovery would be this strong, and this fast, and what's surprising is the buyers are not overseas buyers, they are new yorkers, they are aware of what's happening on the commercial side, and i guess bullish, they are long term buyers >> you got to wonder, too, real estate is a hedge against inflation. i've heard that argument for many, many years i wonder if that starts to factor in here, too. robert frank, thank you. after the break, an exclusive with the ceo of electric vehicle charging network, evgo, completing the multimillion dollar spac deal today. shares are up 3.5% wel rhtac 'lbeig bk.

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again, alongside the ceo of evgo fresh off ringing the opening bell at the nasdaq >> thank you very much let's bring in cathy zoi, the ceo of evgo from the nasdaq market site. cathy, you completed the $2.6 billion spac merger, ipo, you're going to bring in about $575 million to expand your operations, give me a road map for what's next for evgo as you look out over the next couple of years. >> well, look, phil, the transportation market is electrifying, and there's expected to be, by 2040, 100 million new evs on the road, in the next five years mil25 millin and right now a million and all of those evs will noot need to be charged and we're about building the infrastructure in america. >> and there may be 5,000 ev charging stations as part of the biden infrastructure bill, and more than a few people have said, a, they got to be fast

charging and it is not clear they will be fast charging and it is also not clear that they will get all of that, if the transportation bill is ultimately approved. what's your outlook? >> my outlook is that 500,000 chargers is fantastic. but i'm guessing that about 100,000 of those will be fast charging and he remaind remember going to be in places like apartments and workplaces where people are going to be for a long time. and that ecosystem of charging solutions is really what is needed to get across america and to create that comfort with drivers that they can buy an ev because they will be able to charge at home, at work, on the go >> what do you hear back from people, as they are, and i'm not just talking about within the industry, but whether it's friends, neighbors, other folks, who are considering buying an electric vehicle, do you feel that we have crossed over the bridge in terms of people no longer saying, yeah, maybe some day, and to now saying okay, we can say that my next vehicle will be an electric vehicle, or within five years i'm going to buy an electric vehicle.

what do you hear back from people >> well i hear exactly that i hear, in this combination of reasons that people are getting really excited about evs, there's so many more choices, whether you want an suv or a small car and now even with the emergence of pick-up trucks that are going to be electric, so that abundance of choices, the price point of those choices are making it more affordable for more kinds of people and morekinds of drivers, and then the spread of infrastructure, so the first few years of the electrification revolution in america, really california led the way, 75% of evs right now are in california, but that's changing so quickly. we are building nationally we are already in 34 states and we're doubling down on all of those new places, to create that comfort among drivers that when they go to the grocery store, they're going to be able to charge their car >> cathy, it's david faber when you announced your deal to go public through the climate change crisis back in late january, you put out projections

of 2026, 905 million in revenues, and 2027, 1.289 billion. do you still feel comfortable with those projections or perhaps think you can exceed them >> it's fascinating, i think the electrification revolution is happening more quickly than we would have thought i think a month ago, bloomberg put out a new forecast that raises number of evs that they think will be on the roads that quickly. the wonderful thing about the evgo business model, if more evs are on the road, we can build more fast charges to serve those evs, conveniently, reliably, where people love to work and play, so we're poised, if the market grows faster, we're poised to meet that demand. >> cathy, it's morgan. i am curious about capacity. as we see more and more electric vehicles come online and more and more needs to charge up at stations such as yours, do we have enough infrastructure currently in place to deliver that electricity and what does it take to bring

the rates down >> well, we partner really closely with the electric utilities. evgo purchases power from whoever the local utility is and we work really closely to make sure that the infrastructure is there, and so far, so good, you know, we absolutely, without a doubt, our electricity system is poised to embrace and fully support electrification of transportation it's going to require some planning, particularly as we get into bigger trucks with higher battery capacity, but this point, if we work in lock-step as the market grows for evs with the utilities being a partner, there is no doubt in my mind that it is going to be a modern clean energy system, in america. >> cathy zoi, the ceo of evgo, cathy, congratulations, on listing on the nasdaq market site g guys, back to you. we will be tracking evgo and the rest of the charging stocks over the next couple of years

back to you. >> yes, and you heard cathy talking about the projections, if the market grows even faster, perhaps they can meet or exceed them and she added by the way, we have a new spac index, i don't know if we have it, but i know you're going to be excited about that because we track them when they go public, the spac itself, we track the a biggest when they announce their deal, from the deal announcement until the de-spac, and then we will also track for a couple of years how they perform after, once they become public companies. just to get a sense as to the so-called asset class. and see how it performs versus typical ipos. >> and right, that would be a parallel to for example how the ipo index works or the ipo etf, about a two-year window of look-back in terms of new issues so essentially, yes, you want to see how that kind of class stocks goes. so you have, you know, when the shell is created, when the shell finds the snail, an then how the snail does after that's the way i look at it. >> exactly and that ev goes in there now. let's get to president biden actually, we've been waiting for

some comments about the employment number. >> the job news brought us something else to celebrate. this morning, we learned that in june, our economy created 850,000 jobs 850,000 economy created 850,000 jobs wages went up for american workers. wages went up $600,000 we wish they did 600,000 jobs per month now created 300 million jobs more jobs created in the first five months of any presidency in modern history thanks to our incredible team. pulling our economy out of the worst crisis in over 100 years

during the incredible part of vaccinations in our nation and beating back the pandemic and other elements today is the only major advanced economy where the oecd future output are higher today than they were in january 2020 before the pandemic hit america was ranked first in bloomberg's covid-19 resilience ranking. none of this happened by accident again, it is a direct result of the american rescue plan at the time, people questions whether or not we should do that whether or not we had bipartisan support. well, it worked. the budget office projected growth would be 3.7% yesterday, they doubled that number to 7.4% in large part to

our plan to defeat the virus since 1994, when president reagan was telling us it is morning in america it is close to afternoon here. the sun is coming out. at the time the cbo ran their long projections down, the share of the gdp as they are just done the american rescue plan strengthens our position and grows our economy. the strength of our recovery employers are working with workers to attract others also gives them power to be treated with demand in the work place. our economy is on the move

we have covid-19 on the run. yes, we have more work to do to get america vaccinated and everyone back to work. we are aiming for full employment that means keeping our pace for job growth of black and hispanic workers. this progress is testament to grow the economy from the bottom up and middle out. the american rescue plan provided resources to get shots in people's arms and checks in people's pockets schools. schools were struggling to reopen getting schools much needed support. in march this morning, we've learned jobs and others were up

by 343,000 last month. over 1.5 million and more help was on the way to give families a little more breathing room starting this month, families will receive one of the largest ever single-year tax cuts that middle class families have ever received called the child care tax credit in the past, you could deduct $2,000 off each child. you had two children, you owed $10,000, you could take off $4,000 the american rescue plan, we've expanded that to $3,600 for each child under the age of six and $3,000 for dependents between 6

and 17 so instead of being a credit against the taxes you oh, it is now a fully refundable credit. half will get paid out in monthly basis. look, what that means is this year, middle class families with two children can expect to get up to $7,000 in rebeat and tax return with a monthly payment is til its paid out 8 out of every 10 families will get refunds from the 15th of every month now to the end of the year and get that paid out help with families most need help to make ends meet it is important. i've said for a long time it is time to gifford farry folks and

americans, working class and middle class americans a tax break. this is the kind of tax cut that will help our economy because it will go to families that will spend it it will also lead to historic reduction in child poverty excuse which would have long-term benefits for our economy we are delivering $39 billion for child care providers to serve for families to help parents, particularly women get back to work last month, our economy added 25,000 child care jobs again, none of this happened by accident providing and proving to the doubters that they were wrong. none of this is guaranteed to continue unless we finish our work now is the time to accelerate

the progress we've been making now is the time to build in the long-term foundation we've laid and build it in for long term. an economist would agree my plan would strengthen good jobs and strengthen our economy in the long run. we'll continue to make investments that will allow our economy to build back better we took a step in that direction last week when a bipartisan group of snaenators forged an agreement to move forward. that will pave the way to modernize infrastructure, create millions of jobs according to the experts and won't just be in the center cities. it will be in every corner of our state and nation we'll create jobs repairing our

roads and bridges. replacing 100% of our nation's lead water pipes making the power grid more reliable delivering high-speed internet to every home rural and urban. creating the electric charging network. transitioning buses and vehicles to electric and upgrading a world class rail service when i was in wisconsin, i pointed out to the governor, i know it takes couple hundred of people in the audience -- >> >> showing 150,000 jobs added in june and other increase in wages saying that athe economy s on the move. covid-19 is on the run

not just infrastructure but social infrastructure. we go to iyou for more >> you want to take note he's talking about the vaccinations, then use it for your sales pitch you heard biden transitioning to that saying we've got to continue with the investments i'm talking about in my plans. that means more government spending that's what biden is proposing here biden is worried they'll say, hey, look, the jobs market is rolling back. that was a huge number i don't see all the urgency of the spending biden wants to dial it up. he's saying everything is going great. i'm going to take full credit

and keep pouring it on here. >> interesting we just had evo ceo on we were checking with him including on charging stations thank you. that will do it for us on squ "squawk on the street. the market that has more or less been very strong tech check starts now. have a great weekend. ♪ ♪ ceo born in 1964 ♪ ♪ jeffery ♪ ♪ jeffery bezos ♪ ♪ come on jeffery ♪