♪ you've got the looks ♪ ♪ let's make lots of money ♪ ♪ you've got the brawn ♪ ♪ i've got the brains... ♪ with allstate, drivers who switched saved over $700 click or call to switch it is 5:00 a.m. in tampa bay, florida here is the top five at 5:00 fear on the streets. stocks set to sink as yield moves to multimonth lows. big tech under fire as three states with anti-trust lawsuit and one ipo looking to make a debut in new york with the chinese crackdown.

and jamie dimon looking to get the crew back in the office. and tampa bay takes home the stanley cup for the second year in a row. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning, good afternoon, or good evening welcome from wherever in the world you are watching i'm brian sullivan it is a busy thursday morning with the stock futures making a sharp move lower this is just one day after the s&p 500 hit another all-time high dow futures off 346. nasdaq futures off 147 there is no screaming reason why this is happening. there's not some big, bold red headline that says this is happening. stock futures are down maybeulmination of a lot of

things we'll talk about in that a few minutes. check out the action in dow in the last 12 hours. you see when we started that move lower around 2:00 a.m. eastern time they started to sell off significantly. as stocks have sunk, bonds bought when bonds go up, yields go down the 10-year in the past several hours stands at the lowest level since february 18th at 1.26% the 10-year yield down 14% for the year since last friday the ckcontrarian rate call lookg good scott will be back on tomorrow the 2-year and 15-year and 5-year low yields across the board moving down a lot of nerves in the market

this morning borrowing costs will also go down speaking of going down, crud oil making a move lower off mu multiyear highs. why, brian haven't you been telling us the opec deal is currently in force? no new barrels on the market yes. there is also a real fear as we talked about the opec plus agreement entirely could break up or more companies -- or countries rather -- could pump more in the oil markets to create a freefall. that could set the price down today. a lot going on around the world. europe following our lead as well what is happening in the european markets karen cho is live in the newsroom with a whole red wall of moves >> brian, i'm swamped in red

here nerves and fears in europe european equities followed the asian stongcks in the red after hang seng losses here in europe, the euro stock volatility index is rising to highs not seen since june. the ecb will release the findings of the strategic related today which marks the first major overhaul of the central bank strategy since 2003 it will include inflation targets. that is impacted some of the big banking stocks which pulled the markets lower. along with the big recovery plays. resources and autos are aggressively selling off this morning. german stocks down most with the uk, france and german market

deeper falls on italian and spanish. in stock news, stalantis expects the first quarter profit market with the response to the chip shortage that is up despite the news today. the u.s. futures are not helping us out, brian. >> no, certainly not a lot going on we will get more on that coming up karen tso, thank you very much. a big day with futures down more than 300 points let's talk about what is going on and where we are headed we have rbc capital markets head lori lori, something is going on. not should be what we normally have a big, bold reason for a move like this in futures. i can't see one. maybe you know we're off record highs listen, you don't want to make

too much of it what is happening right now? >> i think it is a lot of little things weighing on sentiment we wrapped up our quarterly survey in june last week we look across the different questions we asked optimism did appear to be fading on the broader u.s. equity market and things like the economy. if you look at economic optimism, we asked how will the economy do over the next 6 to 12 months we found in the march survey, 93% were optimistic and that dropped to 72% we also found that the same time that inflation trades like small cap and value eroded two of the top areas out performed, but a big degradation. we are headed into reporting

season next week we actually asked people what do you think is happening in terms of margins and do you think inflationary pressure are baked in we think there is concern that they are not properly baked in estimates. we e found those expecting expansion dropped in the 70s since thursday earning season is making investors nervous. >> lori, i'm old enough to remember every july for the last 20 years a little seasonality is expected we are on record highs for tech and the s&p 500. a little down move a little pause that refreshes or correction, these are not necessarily bad things >> exactly you know, the other thing we noticed in the survey is concerns about valuation actually ticked up with the

march survey comparison. we hit the 4325 target we see the rich valuation and the s&p 500 eps growth you mentioned seasonality, brian. if you look at recovery out of rece recession, when we get the early cycle peak, the rate of change, not the dollar level, stocks are down six months later and up 12 months later markets have a hard time on the earnings growth front. we are in the middle of that right now. >> panic selling last year maybe panic buying last year and through this year. it sounds, lori, any year, stocks are likely to be higher than now but, expect some pockets of weakness maybe not just today >> exactly and i think that at the end of the day, investors have been on

a ferocious ride we exceeded recovery we go back to the data upopoint. that is harder to imagine what is coming in now so i think investors understand what that playbook typically is. we got the fed minutes yesterday. we had a big reset in tightening expectations after the last meeting. i think investors got another reminder of it yesterday typically, i mentioned posit positioning. you see when the fed hikes rates and the reflation trades come to the end. we see growth take over and cyclicals take a breather. that is not all to say they will

go away. there is evaluation room for them investors understand that. >> lori, are you shocked how low 10-year yields are moving? >> i'm shocked i will tell you the investors in the survey are shorcked most people are in the 2% to 3% camp that is a far way off at this moment in time i think that move, whatever is driving it, is taking equity investors as a surprise. >> they may want to be in the 1.2% or 1.3% camp at this point. lori of rbc, a pleasure to have you on always appreciate your voice thank you. >> thanks for vaghaving me. you're welcome an update on jobs lost around the world in a lockdown from the pan pandemic kristina partsinevelos is here with that and more kristina, good morning >> reporter: as many as 22 million jobs were lost in the

economies around the world due to the pandemic. job retention programs saved 21 million jobs, but the threat to low-skilled workers is likely to be belong-term. baifang could raise $500 million. the convenience store chain could go public this year. talks of the size of the offering and timeline are ongoing. the filing chom comes as china s reining in investments especially in new york check out the top laggards in the pre-market trading jd.com and baidu all trading negative these are shares of chinese companies down across the board.

completely switching gears ft. lauderdale accepted a proposal elon musk boring company linking the downtown and beach front. it is not a done deal yet. other firms have 45 days to submit competing proposals. ft. lauderdale would be the second city in the world to partner with the boring company. i wonder if it would help with traffic. brian. >> we will see kristina, before we go, i have to say -- >> don't >> i know you are a native mond montrealer >> don't do it for the viewers that know, brian is giving me condolences for losing yesterday in the game i was trying to sleep. >> they didn't lose. >> we came out all winners >> they made it. the cup goes back to the hockey capital of the world

tampa bay. >> that is not the hockey capital -- how does that make sense? >> it makes no sense >> this isn't over >> you start talking hockey with a canadian and you are at war. kristina, thank you. i might be gone. i'm scared as the stock market all right. we have more to do on the busy thursday whet when we come back, judr. j. is here on his take on why stocks are down nearly 400 and what they are betting against now. and a $15 million diamond can be yours you can pay in dollars or crypto. andmore than three dozen states taking issue with google and its app store. oil and crypto down.

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all right. welcome back good morning time for the big money movers today. we will give you four different stock stories of the morning here we we go wd-40. raising revenue guidance for the year ceo expects sales to rise by the

mid to high single digits. mcdonald's with the loyalty program today. and stock three, cathie wood's ark invests marks two days in a row for wood and ark internet fund we will give you a fourth stock, but too much going on. cleaning up the mess in florida and getting ready in the carolinas. tracking the big and scary tropical storm elsa as it barrels up the eastern seaboard. stocks are on a storm of their own. dow futures off 400. nasdaq down 164. bitcoin down $2,000. oil falls again as well. there's a lot more to do when we

are back after this. >> announcer: today's big unusual. $28 billion. that's how much retail investor money flowed into stocks and etfs last month according to data from vander track thhiest nty vesie e ghmohllel nc 2014 ns that occur in their lives. for them it's the biggest milestone, the biggest accomplishment, the sale of a business, or an important event for their family. for them, it's the first and only time. we have seen this literally thousands of times, in thousands of iterations. ♪ ♪ i am vince lumia, head of field management at morgan stanley. whether that's retirement, paying for their children's college education, or their son or daughter getting married, our financial advisors need to make sure that they are making objective decisions, every step along the way. every time you hit a milestone, an anniversary, a life event, the emotions will run high.

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headlines, including a very important update on the upcoming tokyo olympics there is a look at futures phillip mena is in new york with the latest >> brian, good morning breaking news at this hour the japanese prime minister just announced a covid reellated sta of emergency for tokyo lasting through august 22nd. it will impact the olympics to potentially keep fans out of the stands. let's turn to tropical storm elsa it is slamming the carolinas with the torrential rain and power winds. 30,000 plus power outages hitting south carolina elsa hitting the u.s one person in florida was killed after a tree crushed a car let's talk playoff hockey now. after losing game four of the

stanley cup final, the lightning had a chance to put away the montreal canadiens 6:00 left in the second period and the tapper is all they needed 1-0 was the final. lightning strikes twice in tampa as they hoist the second straight tstanley cup. the third in the franchise history. the first time to go back-to-back since the pittsburgh penguins in 2016-2017. brian, a nice run for the tampa bay lightning. the buccaneers who won the super bowl and the rays in baseball won the american league pennant. things are going well for sports fans. >> tom brady does he play for the lightning i swear i saw him on the bench

maybe that was the coach >> he has the good vibes boston did it, too the red sox and bruins and patriots and celtics >> city of the future. gorgeous place e-boring great town >> i know. and they got tom brady >> phillip, thank you very much. a giant diamond and shopping spree and sign of the continued camerafication of america. let's talk about that and certainly not talk about hockey with kristina partsinevelos. native montrealer. >> reporter: giant reporter. >> phillip did the story >> i know. >> reporter: i know i have to

move on. let's move on. we have to talk diamonds sotheby's will accept bitcoin of the 101-carat diamond. the gemstone could fetch $15 million in the sale in hong kong that could make it the most expensive physical object ever offered for purchase with cryptocurrency the retail industry set for the biggest back to school season spending on back to school items is expected to reach $32 billion this year. according to the report, technology is a key area for spending, but an pparel is expected to make a big comeback.

tiktok is testing a job application tool that would allow users to directly apply to jobs with video resumes. chipotle and target and shopify signed on to the pilot program called tiktok resumes which lasts until the end of the month. you have to create a resume and post it on tiktok and send it to recruiters on the app. brian, do we get rid of the paper cover letters? we are when we had to write a nice cover letter? >> yeah. sure make a video who needs to list their life-long accomplishments. the continued camerafication of the world. help me out with my french i think with regards to the

canadiens. the term plousee >> reporter: that's -- you can use that for everything. >> the more things change. the more things stay the same. >> the more things change with each passing day, the more you stay the same? >> i get older >> sorry that was a bad insult. i'm sorry. >> it's hockey my cousin lives in canada. never talk hockey with a canadian unless they he win. otherwise ignore it. >> that's why i did that s>> kristina, thank you very much >> what? okay you intelligent man. oh, thanks for saying that stocks set to sink stock futures are down

bond neyields tumbling again. the 10-year could crack below 1.5% there are concerns that the opec deal or opec itself could break up sending every country for itself mode and putting more oil on the market a lot to do on a busy thursday we are back right after this

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red alert. dow futures down 400 as stocks look to a possible summer swoon. bond yields tumbling as well it is not just stocks. oil also down. growing concerns that the current opec deal or opec at risk of dumping more oil on the market. and the biggest ceo jamie dimon says get back to the office and fast. will other ceos do the same? it is thursday, july 8th this is "worldwide exchange. welcome or welcome back to the busy thursday morning. i'm brian sullivan here is how your money and investments look as we are halfway through the 5:00 a.m. hour

dow futures down nearly 400 points nasdaq off 171 i like to come on the show and say why this is happening. i'll tell you, i have no idea. there is no major screaming headline out there that suggests that stocks should sell off or no attack anywhere there was no big headline. there is no anything that suggests that we should have a 400-point selloff on the dow you heard lori say at the top of the show it is a culmination of a lot of things going on and seasonal summer weakness and people visiting worries of valuations and earnings growth by the way, we are seeing a sharp move down fortr treasury yields bonds have been getting bought over the last number of weeks. the benchmark 10-year yield is below 1.3%

lowest since mid-february. not on the low for the year, but not that far off if you remember on the show two months ago or six weeks ago, scott minerd said he thought stocks or bonds would go lower end the year below 1%. everybody disagrees with that. the call is above 2% he was seen as a huge contrarian that call is looking pretty good by the way, you will hear from scott tomorrow on this show excl exclusively. he was right on the mark about yields remember in april, he said bitcoin could lose 50% of the value. that is what has happened as well scott has been right on the market about bitcoin and bond yields he joins us tomorrow you will hear from him exclusively on this show an interview you cannot afford to miss. if you are going or recording it or listening to the podcast, by the way, check out the podcast

you can tape the show or listen to the podcast later on. europe following the u.s all of the european markets are down more than 1%. spain, italy down more than 2% as well. there's a lot of selling around the world right now. maybe some of it has to do with the fact that tokyo declared a state of emergency the olympics will go on, but there will not be spectators, most likely. covid starting to heat up in australia and other parts of the pacific rim as well. that could be one certain big reason let's get to the top stories as well. a lot going on kristina is back with those. >> reporter: we have three dozen states and the district of columbia filing anti-trust lawsuit against google's alphabet alleging the monopoly for the app store. it is led by utah and alleges that the company monopolized the

apps on the devices that run android and blocking the technical barriers and other means. google says it provides an open the roll -- open operating system and the infrastructure plan could hit the senate floor by july 19th. the administration is working along the senate to have the bill ready as early as the next two weeks. and jamie dimon is speaking with bill cohn weighing in on vaccination rates and the fintech. dimon says when it comes to getting people back in the office it is about spontaneous

comb combustion he said i saw my bankers in action i got complaints from clients. i saw private bankers in action. we should do things differently from here with snowflake or ai you walk around the hallways and share stuff they would not do. get the spontaneous combustion brian, if i saw you in the hallway, would that happen >> besides hockey, humans matter in the digital age, humans matter more than ever. not less more at least i like to believe that. >> i agree >> kristina, thank you very much you're very welcome. treasury secretary janet yellen heading to the g20 meeting in venice, italy.

in an effort to build support for a global minimum tax ylan mui has more. ylan >> reporter: brian, we are expecting the g20 finance ministers to strike a deal over international taxes with major implications with big tech facebook and google have been singled out overseas from making money off foreign customers, but booking profits with extremely low taxes. to recover the cash, eight european countries have digital taxes aimed at big tech. others have proposals. the eu is supposed to release one later on this month. to stop this, the united states is threatening 25% tariffs $887 million of bath salts and brushes from britain $140 million in shoes and

handbags from italy. $55 million of spanish rice and prawns the hope is the g20 countries draw the taxes on tech over the global minimum tax already most of the countries in the oecd are behind the plan the g7 signed off. they are looking to the g20 meeting to hammer out the details of implementation. it will take another couple of months br brian, if this deal fallse we could have a trade war over big tech. >> what about singapore? singapore trades on low and no corporate taxes. that's the point >> reporter: china signed on to the oecd framework to get rid of the digital services and replace with a global minimal tax.

every country will have to implement it that is when taxes gets involved and it gets really tough. >> it certainly does if singapore, not big physically, but with growth business says no thanks. we could see corporate headquarters relocating there. ylan mui, thank you. it is not just stock futures down this morning. oil prices are down for a third session. joining us now is senior analyst. l louise, thank you for coming on. do you think there are growing concerns that the longer this opec tussle stretches out, the more likely it is the uae could go its own way and other countries ignore the rules and pump whatever they want? >> brian, that is correct. the market panic has pivoted

from fearing the oil market in short supply to actually a breakup of opec plus and, in fact, overproduction, free-for-all scenario. ala pre-pandemic >> you know, we interviewed the saudi minister yesterday salman he was confident if the new deal to add more barrels could not get done, that the current deal which is bullish for oil prices, that that would hold it doesn't appear or does appear the market is starting to discount that a bit. >> yeah. i think the current opec plus discord highlights the fragile

state of the markets the broader animosity brewing with a group of 23 nations that are forced to come together and manage the market an of course, the countries have direct competition interests in selling oil at the highest price possible and for the most sustainable period of time to make matters more complex, there's the iran nuclear deal which could be a bargaining chip in the new quotas and we could see potentially a new deal to bring in non contributing members such as iran and venezuela or potentially libya >> iran could come back on the market venezuela, venezuela and oil production is back to levels not seen since 1927. iran could come on the market in a big way. uae has said we want to pump more oil we invested billions if we stick to the quotas

implied, we will lose disproportionately more because capacity has gone up louise, the uae, the biggest producer in the world, is there a possibility it leaves opec >> i think you are correct the uae as well as the other core middle east opec producing countries have done the heavy lifting in the past 13 months to rebalance the oil market understandably, they are looking for more leniency in the quotas. these are so very fresh points that are hashed out in the next couple weeks we see that opec plus has a bit of market flexibility and for august of 2021, they could bring back 1.6 million barrels a day or the so-called call on opec and keep the oil market in the theoretical equalibrium

does it go to russia or iraq that is the question the jury is still out on >> if the uae does get what it wants, russia will have to disproportionately take a hit. louise, what is your prediction for the u.s. producers prices are higher than they were six months ago will u.s. production come back online in a meaningful way we are down nearly 2 million barrels from the high of two and a half to three years ago. >> brian, i still think u.s. shale producers are demonstrating the reluctance to invest and increase production to actually meet and plug the supply deficit the rationale behind this is

related to producers locked in hedging. this increase in production to get back to the 13 million barrel per day peak u.s. oil production, this is not something we are forecasting in the near short-term. >> or maybe the medium perterm louise dickson, thank you. it is not like the old days. wild cats pump more oil. louise, thank you. good take. >> thank you, brian. oil is down a bit. you are very welcome oil prices are up huge from six months ago. pspeaking of oil. jet fuel demand is soaring, but not in the way you think the morning rib ibi is coming u with how rich everybody else is.

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frank holland is joining us with the findings >> reporter: good morning, brian. one-third of cfos and tech managers say only a portion of the office workers will return to the office. this survey over the concerns of the delta variant. 2.5% of companies will have in-person only half will have the mix of hybrid and in-office. 16% responding say the covid vaccine will be mandatory for returning to the office. 70% said vaccines would not be mandatory. respondents citing productivity it sounds like people are

slacking off while working at h home 84% say that workers are more productive since the start of the pandemic brian. >> 84% say this and 33% say this i'm not sure the numbers line up, frank. >> reporter: you know what, br brian? there is overlap cfos want employees back in the office there is an advantage of them back in the office. >> what people say and people do, frank, might be different things you might find that out as well. frank holland, interesting appreciate it. thank you very much. >> thank you, brian. as we head to break, stock futures down big we are seeing stock futures off 400 points for the dow nasdaq down 155. a lot of selling with no big screaming reason why

bitcoin down more than $2,000. oil off 1% as well john is coming up next he will layout what he thinks is acg ti bs nd where people are plinoponetright now. stick around fe or sporty. modern or reliable. we want both - we want a hybrid. so do banks. that's why they're going hybrid with ibm. a hybrid cloud approach helps them personalize experiences with watson ai while helping keep data secure. ♪ ♪ ♪ from banking to manufacturing, businesses are going with a smarter hybrid cloud, using the tools, platform and expertise of ibm. ♪ ♪ ♪

welcome back let's turn to the markets on what is said to be a wild trading thursday dow futures down 364 nasdaq down 160. who better to have on than john nagarian we will talk about china and the etfs what the heck is going with the stock market i see no headlines as to what may be kicking this off. >> brian, you know better than almost anybody about the effect that crude oil prices have had

and the massive jump in crude oil. that's why prices have gone up in food and transportation, of course, because with the restarting of the economy, we have not only jets moving around, cruise ships, cars and almost all of that moves on crude oil. i think a lot of this is people nervous about the inflation and trying to get that toothpaste back in the tube, brian. >> and 10-year yields jon, at 1.26%. vix hiccup just a bit. are you seeing the options placed in the market are you seeing any macro bets or still more stock specific?

>> we are seeing gigantic bets for instance, pro shares has a triple leverage short contract on the s&p 500 as you might imagine, since the s&p 500 is up 15% or more or was prior to today for the year, people that have bought that triple levered etf have failed mightily all year long. it has been going from upper left to lower right. now we see yesterday big bets coming in. let's see, what was it the august 17 -- i'm sorry july 17 calls. they expire next friday. not this friday, tomorrow, but next friday. they were buying a ton of these upside calls how many of them did they buy? you know, 40,000 they bought a ton of these upside calls those calls since it is inverse,

they make money if the s&p falls. it's a triple lever call this is a very big either hedge, brian, or as i said before, a bet that markets sort of melt into next week >> that would seem to be -- correct me if i'm wrong, jon, and i frequently am, that would seem too big of a bet to be a straight up hedge. >> yeah. most people that will do a hedge don't do a leveraged hedge they don't do 2-to-1 or 3-to-1 the symbol is epsu they get most of that leverage side from the swap contract that they do. to somebody who buys it and they bought right at the money. they bought at 17. they are basically saying if the s&p falls, as it is today, by a

percent or more, this will move 3% on that day that's exactly what is playing out so far today >> listen, it is 5:54 in the morning. 4:54 in chicago. funny if it was an hour and ten minutes behind i want to clarify what you said. for some people waking up and getting coffee there appears to be, based on that trade, a gigantic market player who appears to be making a pretty gigantic bet against the stock market in the short-term fair to say? >> yes very fair to say very accurate. like we both discussed, sometimes these bets or hedges get expressed through the vix contract and one of the big players is known as 50 cent. he tends to buy 50 cent options

that are outside of the money. knowing they would pick up in value and offset the portfolio losses or just as we both discussed, a straight out bet. short-term i think in the short-term, we may see a snap to the down side or something we are not just seeing that, by the way, in the u.s., brian. this has been playing out in china in a pretty big way. both the k-web and fxi are seeing a lot of activity k-web is the internet stocks in china. those, you know, stocks tied to the internet and tech. the fxi is the broad market etf for china. both very large trades in the last few days. somebody thought something happened in the last couple days >> jon, quickly, you know the headline we have to have headlines. we're in the news business it has to do with the fed. the reality is bitcoin is down

2,000. ethereum is down 7%. those aren't fed related a massive selling program across everything right now. >> no. right. when you see broad market selling, everything goes with it not just one asset class >> jon, a pleasure to have you on we need your insight on a day like today really fascinating about that huge bet placed against the macro market jon, appreciate you getting up early. that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. dow futures down 400 big bets across the board against the market we will see you tomorrow with scott minerd "squawk" and the gang are picking up the coverage next have a great day

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good morning look out below seeing red red this morning stock futures pointing at big losses this morning. a lot of it has to do with the 10-year yield tumbling below 1.3% we will show you. big tech remains under fire. filing anti-trust lawsuit against google that didn't be good over its app store. japan officially declaring state of emergency olympics will take place, but fans might not be allowed in the stands thursday, july 8th, 2021 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm melissa lee along withoe