guy that's it po "power lunch" for this thursday. great being with you what do you say we do this again tomorrow >> okay. you twisted my arm here's the gang on "closing bell," that starts right now we'll see you tomorrow >> a towering american broadcaster talking about american tower great to see bill back. >> i'm wilfred frost, stocks off the low, but the dow and s&p still down a full percent. it's all about yields yet again, hitting a low of 1.25% jobless claims came in higher and covid concerns rising again,

with the dealta variant climbing plus blackrock's head of ishares investment strategy, where she sees opportunity and why she's downgrading u.s. stocks >> let's focus in on the big story we're watching today mike san tollist is on the volume at this time street and meg tirrell has the latest developments on the delta variant. mike, walk us through this day things seem to have calmed down a bit, with you -- >> it has been somewhat unsettled today, even though the market did regroup in fact, at the lows this morning, the s&p was down about a percent and a half and basically stopped going down where the index finished june. we basically wiped away it is

last leg of july gains we've been talking about how the boost was -- you had poor breath mea measures, a lot of stocks falling by the wayside if you wanted to ask exactly what would represent just a very normal shakeout, totally routine, it's certainly in that zone, but i would say the first stop would be in the mid 4200, that's kind of where the market broke out from in early june also was the high back in may, so that seems to be an area, are we still in this upper range that's just really the first place you might look to see if there was support, if we even get there. this whole theme of slowing growth and yields going down, and the idea that perhaps we're in deceleration mode is no surprise to the market look at the bellwethers, the transportses, the home builders, they all peaked in may, all down somewhere in the vicinity of 10%, i think materials down 9%,

banks down a bit more, so this was well this train, that the market was adjust to go this phase of maybe softer growth, or whether it be the global, you know, delta scare or something else this has already gone on in fact about half the stocks of the s&p 500 are down 10% the point being a lot of selling is taking place before it was notified by the large-cap index. speaking of bonds. sometimes it's helpful to look at bonds in price terms, it is the tlt, the long-term treasury etf. this is the latest rally in bonds and drop in yields the 30-year treasury down from 2 1/2 to 1.9, or thereabouts, in just a couple months you see it's sort of on the verge, just broke above that whole trend line is this a culminating moves? there's some inklings there.

also, starting to see heavy inflows into the tlt, into treasuries, etfs, sometimes that means bears are capitulating, so hard to say for sure, but we've already done a lot of work on the yield side i think it's not necessarily clear we're going to collapse further from here, guys. >> mike, back to your previous points about the etfs, that maybe is a better way to put it, why does it feel like such a shock some of these megacap in the bigger indexes are now catching on? >> i think we were lulled by the fact that amazon, apple, microsoft, have been able to insulate the indexes for a while. it seems as if this rotation was going to essentially be very benign and we weren't going to have any corr, of course a lot of people are direct s&p investors, so i think it makes sense we wonder if in fact the market could continue to essentially rotate higher, and a

we had a bit of a shakeout after the fed meeting as well. i think it's worth noting that nothing happened today really seemed to be, you know, blindsiding the market we were already leaning in this direction. >> michael, thank you. travel stocks dipping today, on concerns of the delta variant, and now tokyo is declaring a state of emergency. >> that state of emergency in tokyo means no spectators in the stands at the olympics, kicking off in just a few weeks. this, as cases in tokyo are highest level since may. this is the fourth time the city has declared a state of emergency. this as delta, the warning about variants in tokyo and around the world, concerning a lot of folks from the world health organization, also to here in the u.s. the cdc today noting that cases across the u.s. ticking higher,

up 11% week over week in the seven-day average, now up to almost 14 thousands. hospital admissions also starting to tick higher, now up 7% to 2,000 a day. the good news about the delta variant is about the vaccines, especially with two doses, seem to hold up well. so what you hear the cdc warning about and the world health organization more globally, is that under-vaccinated areas is where you'll see -- here in the united states some counties have vaccination rates until 40%. those are the spots that public health officials are really worried about. guys >> i guess, meg, you have implied the most encouragings things, especially where delta cases have picked up significantly is that deaths have hardly flinched i guess that's perhaps the key bottom line. on your point about resistance

to the vaccines, is since solid data so far. it holds up very well. and presumably the -- in terms of disease in general, there is some diminution to use a dr. fauci word, in how well they might protect against transmission there was some israel data that came out that looked like it went down to 64% those numbers may change as we start to understand them better, but severe disease, the vaccines are very protective across the board.

professor siegle s. how are you? >> what's your take on today's yield moves. >> would you have expected that? all rationale was interest rates are going to go up inch i think when it gets shaken out, that's basically what happened. so certainly when we got the

warning from japan, that accelerated the moves in the treasuries and shared -- >> do you think it's genuinely slowing down which data points railroad looking out at >> by far, i think next tuesday the cpi report the current estimate is among over month to be up 0.5 that's still have i holt if it surprises on the up side, i think that definitely could be a market-moving event. which i believe they should be they open market purchasing,

especially the mortgage-backed securities really don't make sense even given the slowness that we have that the economy is still very, very strong. well a really hot cpi. i wouldn't be surprised. at the latest, it will be august, i believe when we get that tapering move i think the inflation will be running very hot. >> don't forgets a lot of things

affecting interest rates just than inflation ie, they know, about but they have a lot of sources of demand. pension funds are buying them already not just the poor inflation, but the core inflation if it does get hotter, that's going to be a fed reaction is the delta variant really the biggest risk trying to move at the right pace, moving too fast or saying

everything is temporary, i think they're going to have to be switching their tune here. if they do so sensibly, the market will say they have caught on to it so if yields are going to rise, again, and you don't want to be in stocks or something alternative to stocks, what would you be buys now? stock are real assets, and stocks would not be attractive real assets -- we see what happens to the property market, but it's already up 20, 25%. it's already seen what i think will be the bump in the consumer price index. there's just going to be more

hiccups as they start with the reality they'll have to start to tighten. we're still in a strong recovery the question is, is the fed delaying too much that it's going to have to full back too strongly i think that's the biggest concern, that we're going to get hotter than expected inflation and they're going to start tightening too fast. that will produce a reaction other than that, i think stocks, you know, earnings are blockbuster and will continue to be blockbuster this year

supporting it they shall not from bonds, you know if we get chips, it's a negative return. i guess, cell towers, it's surprising how well rreits, hav held up. >> professor siegle, great to see you, as always, thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me, will. straight ahead, a chinese company shelving its plans for u.s. ipo what this could mean in the landscape. you're watching "closing bell," on cnbc.

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a chinese medical company is the first chinese firm to pull back its ipo plans since the chinese cybersecurity regulator is pushing on -- u.s. senators are calling on u.s. regulators to investigate the didi ipo. chinese companies are getting

hammered as well didi leading the group, down more than 25% since tuesday. joining us is garrick devore check, where he advises chinese companies. first off, what is your impression of the regulators cracking down and the impact on didi. >> thanks for having me. some of these cancellations have been happening for a while we're contributing to a bit of the rumor mill of the chinese companies listing. we had heard, and only you hear, you can't confirm, but there were several not to list in the u.s. so they pulled their ipos. they had filed confidentally, so they weren't on file publicly, so you didn't see it it's been happening for a while. didi was kind of the surprise.

being such a national champion and being the fact they went ahead with it, and the journal reported yesterday that it's likely they were told not to list, so it's becoming visible, but a trend that's been happening for a little while now. >> what happens to didi, even if they were warned not to list obviously shares have taken a hit in the last several days you mentioned down 25% what happens to didi now >> now that they are listed, they're listed that can't be changed. they will not delist i would imagine within a couple years they'll do a list, and shanghai is a possibility. we've seen other companies that have been listed for a while in the u.s., a dual list, but in

the near term, the question is how much of a risk overhang is there from the regulatory angle. what does that mean for the business the impact near term is obvious. the other happen to the situation is, you know, china really doesn't want to ruin the. it's in their interests to be a growing, thriving business around the world i look at this as kind of a public reprimand they didn't listen to the regulators like they should have they're being punished quite visibly, but longer term, i don't think the chinese government will tie their hands. so i wouldn't tell anyone to catch a falling knife right now, but certainly you've been given an opportunity to buy the stock at much more attractive level than the ipo price. >> gary, you feel like there's a

populist element of why china wants its more successful companies to stay listed back home >> yeah. there were two issues. one is the fact that so many of the great national chains are listing overseas i try to tell people, what does facebook, apple, netflix, google, on and on and on, what if they listed in hong kong, right? one or two, okay, that happens, but when all of your national champions are not listing at home, and china does have a well-developed market in hong kong, that becomes an issue. it's a bit of an embarrassment so that's one element of it. the second thing that i haven't heard many people talking about this, but i think it's kind of important, there is a huge amount of wealth creation happens. these are amazing companies. they're growing rapidly. bills onand billions are being

created. the man on the street, the guy on the street, joe wang, small shareholders can't participate i can buy uber, i did buy -- in china they can't buy shares. so that is. >> what do i -- >> i guess the level of importance, and then chinese society as a whole, lots of individual stocks. it makes society in china sound much more like capitalist america than perhaps some people would have thought for a communist nation >> well, having lived there for

eight years, i can tell you, china is one of the most capitalist countries on earth. they definitely have their own culture. they have their own viewpoint, but the amount of productivity, the amount of entrepreneurship is absolutely incredible from that perspective, i think you can see why the chinese economy is booming the way it is to your point, you know, communist legacy, how do the workers own the means of product? well, it's in the stock market, right? so that's how the average guy participates, not only in earning a salary, but in the wealth creation. i think that's something, you know, you can buy shares on the shanghai exchange now, but these are the hot ones, the ones that everyone is watching, and they can't participate when they list

in the u.s. >> gary dvorchak, thank you very much up next we head to the exchange for a closer look head of ih shares is here, and why she's looking to europe for opportunity. as we head to break, let's check out some of the top searched tickers. the ten-year takes the number one spot, surprisingly followed by apple, didi, amc and tesla. we'll be right back.

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the nasdaq making a bit of a comeback josh lipton has a look >> the nasdaq is in the red, but we are off our session lows, still about 13% in 2021. like amazon, that was in the red. now, though, flipping into the green, indeed notching a new

all-time high. apple following here, following a strong month, and the phone maker is flirting with a record intraday high. the point being with july to september, typically a period of outperformance we have to mention alphabet as well with a group of states announcing an antitrust focusing on the play store, and some of the worth performers in today's strayed, asml, xilinx and nvidia let's pivot to some other market news. goldman sachs downgrading charles schwab of course, financials is a whole

sector suffering with those yield moves today. rbc downgrading dr. horton, from outperform, saying it's growing more cautious on the builder, and it's down more, dr horton. and the industry debut, the neutral -- downgrading freeport mcmoran. that stock down 4.5%. now time for a cnbc news update here's what's happening at this hour. >> michael afvenatti has settle to 2 1/2 years in prison he was found guilty of trying to export nike of $29 million. gavin newsom signing an executive order for voluntary

water conservation newsom says with the low water levels at the state'sries advisories are, quote, jaw dropping a ship is pleading for permission to gob. officials say food is running short and tensions are running high on the crowded ship remember the snake we told you about, the one that escaped from a zoo in louisiana's largee mall yeah, it's been found, cara was found in the ceiling ducts she finally tracked her down as she was reported missing she's being checked out before going back to her enclosure at the zoo. >> rahel, i remember when we talked about this yesterday. didn't they say they didn't think cara was in the mall >> she was in the ceiling ducts in the zoo, so apparently they were right. >> if she's missing, how do they know she's not in the mall >> when a snake is named, it

makes it sound less scary. >> according to the zoo, she was quite sweet. whatever that means for a snake. >> cara whatever the snake likes, i would go with, to keep her sweet. whatever she is wants to be called >> rahel, thank you very much. still to come. mohamed el-erian joins us to discuss today's pullback. plus crypto crumbling as the global markets dip low, is this a buying opportunity we will discuss, coming up here is a check on bonds today, as you can see 30-year down as 1.9, and the ten-year just below that level.

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coming up, blackrock and why she's downgrading her views. we'll bring you the results as soon as they cross the stay with the "closing bell. you got to move the phone in front of you like..like it's a mirror, dad. you know? alright, okay. how's that? is that how you hold a mirror? [ding] power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools and interactive charts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the most and $0 commissions

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the market is taking a dive do, though off the lows, this as

japan declared a state of emergency in tokyo for the upcoming olympics. joining us now is ga gargi chaudhuri. thank you so much for joining us obviously wean seen a lot of action in the markets, but much of it seems to be driven by the moves both today and in the prior days is the bond market telling us something that the equity markets and credit markets just aren't seeing yet? >> a great question. first of all, obviously the bond market is prices in somewhat of a greater slowdown than what the equity market is showing us right now. i think some of that is a bit tellically induced we talked about demand supply and balances, and i think there's a bit of a demand/supply

imbalance. the fed is used to buys $120 billion, there's shares that are improving status that still need to buy high-quality assets i think some of those technical reasons are leading to this tremendous rally we have seen off the highs in yields since the end of march >> so even if it is technical, what role does inflation play here dr. jeremy siegel thinking it's the biggest risk to the market and doesn't believe it's altogether transitory. i would agree with some parts of that there are definitely some parts of inflation that will be transitory, but at the same time we believe there are reasons to think that their inflation could surprise to the up side, and some of the drivers could be with us for a few quarters, not just a few months. so some of the reason we think inflation could perhaps surprise us to the up side could be around higher production costs we've heard a lot about

supply-chain descriptions. lastly and perhaps the most important point is around the fed 'reaction. we know the fed has committed to targeting, and that's still in play that's likely to -- and it could be a good hedge. >> so you have downgraded new equities to underway how big of a move is that for you? >> i would say, you know, obviously coming so the year, given the vaccine-related restart, that was a great time to be long u.s. equities that's when we had the recommendation looking ahead, it's not so much about a slowdown in growth

certainly not in the way that the bond market is pricing. so the first half of the year, the growth dynamics globally were concentrated in the u.s when the -- i think this is going to now broaden out to other areas where vaccinations are picking up obviously europe comes to mind, and we think that, you know there are reasons to believe european cyclicals could do a bit better for the second half of the year. >> i was just going to say, a lot of people have made the case that the decade ahead could be a decade for stock picking in a way the past decade wasn't why is that not the case why are etfs still the way to play this market >> you know, we want to provide something that is transparent,

that's liquidity, and there are tons of different times of etfs that are very low cost so you can make very active decisions, so what we're seeing investors do now is allocate to infrastructure etfs, that's something they believe in for the next half of this decade, given the biden build back better plan and the building on infrastructure if you want to want to al indicate to certain sectors of the market, that's something you could do so even with etfs, you with choose targeted areas, and we want to provide that level of customizization and specificity to our clients to be able to do just that. thank you so much for joining us. >> absolutely. thank you. coming up, financials the worst-performing sectors

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mike, really growth fears doing this, other delta variant fears? >> i think it's been a drumbeat of news headlines heading in that direction that seem to reinforce what the bond market is doing the idea we did see the cyclical reflation trade peaks a couple months ago i don't think anything happened that all of a said we have to be worried. it's more about the big indexes. what we have done is pulled back 1% or so to a leave that was the highest level seen in the history of the world six or seven weeks ago. so keep it in perspective. i think we've had deferred selling. it's kind of a long stretch. >> it is that perspective does help stephanie, one thing that mike didn't bring up that you're focused on is the ecb.

you're sort of surprised it's not getting more attention >> yeah, i think they've had a major pivot, even though they've been trying to let inflation one hot. so, i don't know, courtney, this year to me seems like the big stories are peak growth or not, inflation is, is it transitory or not, and what is happening in the bond market? you can step back and say we're at peak growth, but we'll stake at trendline growth. it's still very good, by the way. down from about 8% or 9% this year, right? we're going to see good growth we are going to see inflation, i don't think it's all transitory. we have these supply-change issues that are clearly going to stay with us for a long time i think you're going to see more inflation, and low interest

rates, by the way, let's embrace it a bits better growth and low bond yields. i don't know if bond yields stay this low, but i do think that, let's watch what the fed is doing, and also what the ecb is doing. also, the boj as well. we're going to cover courtney's retail a little later in the show, but first let's hit the banks. wield a couple tough trading days for the bankest, the latest bit of selling is very tough those investors you had hoped we were moving into a new era of net interest income, getting worried the hopes will be dashed or at least take longer to be realized that said, bank really started seeing profit-taking in june but it's not just because of yields also because of warnings ahead of your honor, which we saw next

weeb definitely down more than the others, but quite a few down around 10% stepping back a bit, though, is firstly banking are off a bit, and more of an extension by 2020 by that, i mean good for the capital market players, more so for the traditional makers, and you can see that goldman sachs, morgan stanley outperforming the regionals, to the tune of 10% to 15%, depending on which one you're looking at. steph, you have a bit of both. i know we discussed that not often, but this yield move is a disappointment, no doubt about that >> yeah, no question oh, by the way, bank of america as well, which i also own. i think you can stip back and say let's over some -- and

that's one of the reasons i do like morgan stanley. the ceo and team have actually diversified the company, and they have record investment banks backlog, i expect that to continue they just doubled the different dividend, so they're in their quiet period it's also underperformed goldman by 10% year to date. that's why i think that one is very interesting wells is definitely yield curve-dependent, but they are a restructuring story, and that's what they're focused on. they're shrinking to grow in asset sales and they're going to do a buyback i think that's nice support. i think a lot of the bad news is actually priced in there >> of course, the financials vnl been getting as much love as we had seen previously, but if you look at the year-to-date charts,

they performed well. i know it's going through a big transition, but even still, the perspective again. >> that's the story with all value cyclical reflation sectors. they build up such a lead that they're kind of given some of that back. it's sort of looking like we're at a point where it's on the borderline, but you certainly could say whether that happens or not, values being rebuilt, arguably at the highs, their valuations didn't like that great. so it seems like the buybacks will happen, no matter what, and, you know, it's no worse now than a couple months ago the crypto is also getting hard today. bitcoin down 5%, kate? >> yeah we have seen a huge drop it's been part of this broader move away from risk by global investors. the cryptocurrenciy dropping

alongside equities, despite some investors say it's a hedge bitcoin is not proving itself as the uncorrelated asset bit counsel down about 5% today, to as low as $32,000 earlier some investors saw that as a positive, it appears to have found a floor the weakness really started overnight in asia, after tokyo declared a state of emergency. there's also been more scrutiny from global regulators, especially out of china. >> kate, thank you so much for that on one level, you can look at that, but on another level it has tested the low 30s so many times now. >> yeah. it did dip below ones, but only briefly. you can start to argument it's putting in a nice base. >> you can, though i think it will take time to prove it out every time it rallies, i know it trades very technically.

>> it keeping kind of butching up against the highs, so you have to wait and see. >> the white house is taking aim at railroad consolidation. that's weighs on the rail stocks frank holland has those details. >> after the new the president will sign as executive order for pricing and rail and ocean shipping to deal with the surface transportation board that's an agency that must approve the merger despite volumes that are double

digits higher. back over to you >> thank you very much, frank. the transport average right now down more than 3%. anything ire interested in -- >> we have very easy comparisons in terms of volume and volume growth as the economy continues to be strong, you'll see better volumes. they've been focusing very much on costs, right? i like that company. by the way, if the std proposed in 2016 to change competitor switching, and nothing has been done this is not a forgone conclusion three companies have 80% market share in the shipping indecent, right? so to me, the rails have never

really had a pricing story it's more about volumes and margins. >> that makes sense. we're almost to the close. >> it's pretty much at the opening in terms of breadth. is the russell 2000 has had a crazy ride snow it's gone back to underperform it was 95%, a bit of a flush to the down side. this is pretty lopsided. off the highs, there's a lot of wear and tear underneath the

surface of the indexes the volatility indecent is on guard, but not really flashing a bright warning sign. we did pop above 20 at one point, and it got compressed down so this would become another up trend if we built on it from here so far, being at 19, with the s&p done, you know, close to 1%, it's not really acting in an odd manner. just one minute to go. the s&p is down 0.9%, dow down about 0.8%, nasdaq also down 0.8% all of the sectors are negative. those are only slightly negative at the bottom of the path. a cyclical to a -- financials in

particular, as we've been discussion the ten-year below 130 30-year down 191 the new dollar is a bit softer [ bell ringing ] oil higher, but ending back at the close, we do see a decline of about 258 points on the dow 0.8%, well off the lows. s&p down 0.9, nasdaq down 0.9. well, thank you all. welcome to "closing bell." i'm courtney reagan in for sara eisen, along with wilfred frost and mike santoli automatic major indices closed

lower. the s&p 500 down by 37, and the nasdaq off by 105. the russell 2000 also in the red by about a percent coming up. mohammed el-erian on new concern about global growth, and is today's pullback an indicator. stephanie link from hightower is still with us, megan shue is joining the conversation it did not end up being a rush to the down side amazon up another 1% even though it seemed like most of the damage had preliminarily been done in the cyclical areas. they were proust primed to bounce it was still the run that were

trying to minimize the damage here most things bent, but didn't break. oil was down earlier, it ends up flat i don't think anyone will say it's a genuine change of tone, but we're heading into headwinds, up a lot for the year, so nobody should be surprised we get a shakeout. >> amazon having a strong week what's happening >> i think everyone has the faith that the sideways ten-month trend maybe has broken to the up side i don't think there's a lot of net new fundamental news, except for the big solid stable growers are not back in favor and amazon and apple had lagged the rest of that group for a while megacap tech has outperformed. >> speaking of amazon, stephanie

link, i think you just added to your position? >> i added to it a couple weeks ago when it was only up about 4% on the year. i thought it lagged. it lagged all of faang, really we all know the retail e-commerce story, but the total addressable market is still there. aws only 15% of the workloads are on the cloud these guys are the leader. they're going to grow their cloud consistently oy think they can grow share i love the new ceo >> megan, the selling today was focused on the cyclical sectors, buying opportunity for any of those sectors? >> you know, it very well might be they types of moving rarely last a day or two, so i think

there could be more pressure on cyclicals perhaps a bit further to go in the downward move clearly cyclicals are linked to interest aids, so this has bee a real hit on the chin for anything like a bank or industrial a classic sore of growth scare is what's visualizing here the global recovery will move past the covid crisis, the delta variant being the biggest risk to that right now. we think interest rates are more likely to head higher rather than lower, and that would be very encouraging >> i think it's a compounding

the factors. i think, if anything, the delta variant will probably lead to greater adoption of vaccines, where those vaccines are plentiyful i think you also have some risks of a policy misstep and a fed mistakes i think what we have heard is the fed remains very focused. it really suggests it will take longer.

we're sticking with our overweight position to equities. >> meghan and stephanie, thank you both for joining us. >> thank you let's bring in mohamed el-erian, chief economic adviser at allance >> good to you, and congratulations on england's win. >> thank you very much it's taken over an hour to mention it i'm happy to dwell briefly on that victory we'll see if there's still a smile monday morning let how do you think it's temporary, but tick what are what could have caused it today, and the ecb news, perhaps that's been overlooked as a factor?

>> i thinkic look to three issues is it technical? is it fundamentals or policy related? we have seen more people for forced. i think this is make technical. fundamentals, yes there's some weakening in growth, but nothing that justifies the event policy, yes, the ecb was somewhat more dovish, but the fed came across somewhat more hawkish. when i look at these three factors, i end up saying it's mostly technical probably vie versable.

if it's warm again or possibly hot again, the yields will be that i think is the major risk to the market right now. >> that's what i was just going to ask you when you look at the inflation date, what do you do when do you change the messaging? sew my slew has been behind the curve.

>> i think it's much better to ease off. i think jackson hole is going to be really important. this is a tough communication challenge, because they're already behind the curve the implications this time for the dollar, about what these central banks are doing. it seems that they're moving to match the fed to be reactive to inflation. it seems the bank of japan is still very do mudovish

could they be the first to tighten? or will the fed have to move and catch up >> the bank of england got very close but didn't do it they probably will be next i think the u.s. will be next and the ecb way behind the u.s that will be the order meanwhile, somewhere else in the world where this is major covid issues, the developing world will have to tighten ahead of this you will see a general tightening, but it's not going to be song ronni-- synchronized. that makes life a bit more complicated if oyou're a

policymaker. >> what is your forecast for the end of the year, for, say, the yield on treasury? do we go to 1 before 2 or vice versa? >> that's really a technical question i don't have a good enough feel. i'm not into daily flowing, but i do think by the end of the year we will be higher than where we are from here and materially so, because of growth and because of inflation i think we're still liking at 6 1/2 to 7% growth i think inflation will surprise us i've been in the camp it will likely by more transient, and they don't go away anytime soon. so when i put these two things together significantly higher than here. >> mohamed, great to see you. >> thank you we are getting the earnings

from levi strauss here, it looks like a beat here for eps coming in at 23 cents adjusted. revenue also stronger than expected america's revenues, both up 2019 levels wire yew that comparesens. for more apples to apples, but the global digital revenues, also very strong america's digital revenues up 18%, raising the dividend by two cents to eight cents they have record gross margins, this is interesting, helped by less promotions, more full-price selling, but they do mention price increases. attributed to those record gross margins. not much there in the release. the company is also raising the

full-year earnings and revenue guidance, you can see shares in response are higher by 4%, though off the highs in extended reaction we'll have much more later this hour, when we speak to dana tellsy from the tellsy advisory group. also to come, the treasury yield falling for the fourth straight day we'll discuss that in terms of where it might be headed nest. mike san toldi will have a look at whether surging sentiment could have a rally that's great, carl. but we need something better. that's easily adjustable has no penalties or advisory fee. and we can monitor to see that we're on track. like schwab intelligent income. schwab! introducing schwab intelligent income. a simple, modern way to pay yourself from your portfolio. oh, that's cool... i mean, we don't have that. schwab.

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get started today. you lowest level, and tony, what drove today's move?

what do you make of it >> wilfred, good to be with you. a second congratulations on the england victory. >> thank you very much >> what we're seeing is primarily driven by the techn technicals that's really driven a lot of the buying power. >> what we donald think is it's a signal of a dramatic slowing here over the course of the second half of the year, either in the u.s. or in global growth. >> if we had a relatively strong inflation print next week, what happens to yields? will we quickly reverse in hoff?

>> i certainly thing a strong inflation remains that the reversal will take longer. as we look at the rest of the year, our view would be we'll end in the move to that level will certainly take longer we think as we move through the next couple months, we think we've seen the peak, but we're certainly not in the camp that you're going to say a taper tantrum-like move or what we saw in the first quarter, where we saw from 1% to 1.75% in a matter of weeks we think it will be a more gradual move i think you're going to be more reluctctant to make aggressive bets again in the next couple months. >> tony, it sounds like you

believe that we have seen peak inflation and that means it is transitory is that right? >> yeah, courtney, i think we've seen big inflation we think you need to find the length of transitory we think we're going to still have a relatively elevated inflation environment to at least the middle of next year, possibly even later. as you look into 2023, we think you do start getting back to just above 2%, so consistent with what we think will be a pretty patient fed in terms of reducing accommodation, we think you'll see tapers in 2022, but you won't see rate increases until 2023 >> what's happening to credit, tony in light of these big bond moves? >> the credit markets are surge taking this as a technical move and not fundamentally driven while eseeing pretty modest

weakness, in emerging markets, high yield, investment-grade credit, we're certainly not seeing any dramatic sell-off that would be consistent with the dramatic rates to down to this 130, and sub-130 level in the ten-year the credit markets are reacting to a more medium term view that earnings are growing cash flow is solid default recalls are coming down. in some forecasters' minds we'll see sub-1% in 2021 so loan defaults, more upgrades, solid cash flows, and central bank policies keeping used pinned at zero means the reach for yield, a search for yield continues, and therefore credit supported fundamentally and supported technically. >> you just mentioned the central banks, if you're on the fed, what do you thing do you

think it's behind the -- >> we would say the fed is behind the curve, but do it on purpose. they said we're not going to react to inflation we'll see employment improvement first, so we think they need to use jackson hole and the september meeting to begin communicating that tapering will begin in 2022, and that they're not yet going to be tightening until they're done with tapering it's a bit of a commune indications tightrope, because the data will be volatile. market movements will be vol volatile we think they'll likely stick to their script, that they're going to be patient and going to be gradual. they want to see substantive progress, particularly on the labor front, and they're willing to accept inflation data above their target for a reasonably healthy period of time >> thank you for joining us, tony rodriguez >> good to be with you. >> let's send it out of to mike

santoli. >> this is a sentiment coming into today, basically the backdrop has generally been quite optimistic this is the long running investor intelligence survey and you see this is bulls minus bears, basically back up to what has been the highs of this year. it's not incompatible with the market continue to go grind higher we saw something similar leer, below the peaks of early 2018, which really was a crescendo of early confidence it does show there's not a lot of dry powder in the form of unconverted bulls that will come over to the optimistic side. maybe there's vulnerability in the market look at this measure of asset managers in futures. this goes back to 2009

this level is basically what b of a says represents sort of a complacency level, that over-optimism is building toward it, not quite there, but right off the lows, we sort of got there, as well as parts of the bull market coming off the 2009. it's not necessarily we're already there. it just means that most people are almost fully exposed into the market that's why i do think that further gains from here probably need extra helpings, or perhaps we have to pull back and sling back higher. >> it does look like we're very explode -- close to the complacency line >> up next dana tellsy on the names she thinking of undervalued. plus activision bobby kotick

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retail was one of the many sectors that fell today. estimates joining us to talk about the sector is dana telsey. great to have you here with us first off, a really strong quarter, but one tiny thing that stood out to me was the discussion about margins being helped by higher prices, which suggests to me inflation what's your take on that and the broader outlook? >> i think what they said was terrific it was very optimistic, an upbeat quarter i think they have talked about price increases, raising prices, given the premiumization of what they're doing with their brand with the world reopening and potentially denim being a

back-to-work type of uniform or outfit that people are wearing, they stand to benefit big time not only were the earnings results good, but the operating margin was also good i think on pricing, we've got to watch it carefully i think we have to watch it for all categories, with what's happening with cotton, but product innovation and consumers wanting to get out there, that's driving demand. >> there's been a lot of talk about inflation, and whether it's transitory or not, but i come back to the fact there have been some retailers successful passing on to higher costs to the consumers. whether it's interruptions in the input costs or something therein. if they are successful to do that what do you make of what's going on. >> i think retailers don't have enough inventory

and the new change, that's going to make the consumer have to buy it when they see it. >> i think that's one of the things through the earning season where people haven't seen each other for 12 months, 15 months, gatherings drive that demand. >> so there's no room, dana, for dis disappointment is there not room for disappointment over the next couple quarters? >> there is. if we're not going to see sales strength continue or be able to meet or beat 2019 levels, then i think that's room for disappointment

these stocks have done very well what's the next gauge? the next gauge is, can they sustain the sales growth momentum, and can they drive those margins? keep in mind costs have been reduced. companies have lenders to improve their margins on digital, and we're see an expansion of categories. mea discretionary names are picking up, while essentials frankly is still doing well at the same time. >> it is amazing to see how the retailers have reacted to the pandemic, it's made a lot of them better, frankly, with what they are doing so what names, dana, do you like here ahead of the big swath of retail earnings that we get? >> so i have this thing with su super-charged chains, with how you feel you merchandise, is

masse these businesses they got rid of the old and deadwood, and they're moving on. whether you see public company names like what you're see with lulu, the honest company, it's exciting of the changes, along with reopening and recovery like levi's and urban outfitters, but then i call it the new disruptors storks the new thematic is disruptors many of these are still private companies, warby parker, there's new names out there that are private that are exciting, but urban, lulu, what we're seeing with apparel, there's a lot of momentum in enough these names t. and luxury names stand to benefit. >> what about, dana, any of the

traditional names that might be on a low p.e. multiple, where people might be missing some something. >> look at children's place. that should be a big beneficiary of back to school. it's at a low multiple you think of the competitors that have gone away, have they streamlined their business with reduction in stories, and really going to benefit this year from back-to-school season into the holidays i think that would be an interesting name. >> what about a name like target we talk about it so often. a retailer that has done well in inte integrating stories. is there more room to run for a name like target are they sort of peak right now with the shares reacting >> i think the shares reacted to the results of target. i think sales momentum will

certain be key to continue ulta is coming in with the shop in shops in target that should be a benefit i think new initiatives are key to driving target to continue to have the momentum t comparesens are difficult, you need to keep feeding what you did before in order to maintain that stock price appreciation i'm excited for the target/ulta partnership. >> sephora coming to kohl's is also another one to watch. >> exactly. thank you for joining us today. >> thank you bobby kotick joins us from the sun valley conference in idaho to discuss whether he's looking at any merger potentials. and how the other meme stocks are faring during today's pullback that's later on "closing bell.

♪ time for a cnbc news update with shepard smith hey, shep. >> hi, wilf. a chicago man indicted today for shooting for a federal agents and a chicago police officers. eugene mcloren charged after police say he pulled up along tsai the offi-- alongside the officer's cart and started shooting preparation underway along much of the east coast as elsa moving north tropical storm warnings along the i-95 corridor from the carolinas all the way to massachusetts. the main threat to the region is flooding, winds, large hail, small chance of tornadoes. president biden defending the u.s. troop withdrawal,

saying he won't send another generation of americansthere t fight. the president announcing the mission will end on august 31st ahead of the original 9/11 deadline as forces take more territory, part of our covers on "the news" right after jim cramer >> thank you we'll be watching. next we'll go live to sun valley, i how, with bobby kotick plus the fda narrowing who can use biogen's alzheimer's drug that's later on "closing bell.

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activision blizzard outperforming its peers so far let's send it over to julia boorstin she's joined by activision bobby kotick in an exclusive interview. >> courtney, thanks so much. bobby kotick, thank you so much for joining us here today. bobby, your stock's up about 16% in the past year, but pretty much flat year-to-date what do you expect for the reopening? >> thank you for having me we've been very fortunate.

we have a very distributed development model at the company. when we had to move to work from home, we were able to do it relatively easily. at lot of our employees are back in the offices in places like shanghai and in seoul. in september, all of our offices should be open, but we're fortunate. we have the ability to have a flexible work model. what about game play you've been visiting in a lot of mobile how important will that be to the future of your business, especially as people get out of their homes more >> the bulk of our revenues today come from pc and from mobile mobile is the great growth opportunity. if you think about the history of games, more people play on the past 25 years on consoles and computers. those are expensive. we're now in 190 countries

today. the reason we were able to be in so many countries, now can you play rich and fun experience games on the phone. >> epic, which makes games for mobile devices is locked nlgts battle with apple, an antitrust battle over the fees that apple takes on mobile games. i know that apple's ceo tick cook is here do you think it's fair apple takes the fees what does it mean for the legal battle for you >> you have to recognize the companies that create platforms invest a lot of capital in those platforms and generally deserve to be compensated. i think what the charges for participating, you know, those are probably subject to change and negotiation, different circumstances require different payment terms, but we don't spend a lot of time thinking about it. >> you're not taking the side of

epic in this >> we're agnostic when it comes to litigation. >> fair enough i want to get your thoughts on china. when it comes to distributing your games in china, you're mandated to partner with chinese tech companies there to distribute your games there, but in the u.s. they are not subject to the same rules. do you see a rules where you'll be able to distribute your games in china >> i don't think it's likely the rules require to submit your content for approval directly to the government they have very important reasons for doing so so i -- i don't imagine that we will have a direct opportunity to sell in china we get some benefit from our partners i think in the u.s., you can imagine that reciprocal trade is

something that's a reasonable concept for those countries, where we have to go through joint venture partner, it's logical to expect that, in the u.s., those same kinds of companies would have to also go through joint venture. you . >> you think it's on the table >> i think the concept should be an important part of how we think about trade in the united states. >> what about the decline ease regulatory crackdown on those companies, what does that mean for your business? >> it's hard to know i don't fully understand the motivation behind it, but we have great partners in china, and, you know, i hope that it won't have an effect on us. >> here in the u.s., there's been a lot of talk about regulation, as you look at companies like facebook, google, microsoft, draw this scrutiny.

if those companies are regulated, does that mean more opportunity for you? >> i think that's heart to know. it's hard to know or have a real sense of what type of regulation are we going to be talking about? are they going to be broken up or what type of regulation will be imposed it's too hard to know. >> reporter: there's been so m & a, and activision has been speculated as a company that's interested in a merger are you interested in moving into the media space, or even doing any deals in the video game space >> no. we have pretty ridge i harigid requirements, the opportunities we've had are extraordinary. i never in 30 years of being ceo of the company, i've never seen

as many opportunities as we have today. our challenge is talent. the most important thing for us is to continue to attract great talent for all of the jobs that we have available, and they are thousands of jobs that are going to become available over the course of the next year. >> interesting anything that you think needs to be done from a regulatory perspective or government perspective to help create that kind of talent >> great question. i think if we have immigration laws that actually allowed us to keep the talent that gets educated in this country, or to more easily get access to talent from countries where there are terrific math and science parameters, i think that would make a big difference for the long term, i think if we addraddres ed our k through 12 challenges, i think that's the most important thing to see our government officials to focus on. >> thank you for your

perspective, bobby kotick, thank for you joining us guys, back over to you. >> julia, bobby, thank you both very much for that. up next, bucking the down trend. that's what biogen has done today, regarding the highly anticipated alzheimer's drug we'll explain, when we come back

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to switch and save hundreds. meg tirrell is here with more >> hey, court, it's kind of the opposite of opposite of what you would expect, the fda coming out and narrowing the patient population, it says should get this alzheimer's drug for biogen, why is the stock up today. when they first approved the drug, they didn't put any kind of restrictions on who could potentially get it the company then priced the drug at $56,000 per year causing a ton of push back and criticism about this drug because 6 million people in the united states have alzheimer's disease. that could lead to billions of dollars being put upon medicare, so the fda narrowing the label to what biogen says it intended the entire time, the population

in who whom the drug was testing and shown to have benefits in removing the plaques in the brain associated with alzheimer's disease. that's 1 to 2 patients you're seeing the stock up there. he was saying it just provides perhaps a little bit more comfort that there will be an easier path to reimbursement for this drug, and maybe tamp down some of the criticisms we have been seeing and the fears that this could overwhelm the medicare system, guys. >> so meg, in one of your graphics there, and what you were talking about is it could be effective in the mild course of the disease if you are in a more advanced stage, are you not eligible for the drug. >> it makes it tougher for people in a more advanced stage of alzheimer's, potentially to access it. it doesn't mean they won't be able to access it. it could make it more difficult for them to get it reimbursed. unfortunately, there aren't data showing that this drug could work when people are more advanced in the disease. that's why biogen and fda made the move it doesn't help people who are

farther along. >> meg, thank you so much. up next, the biggest name have been on a wild ride over the last month, falling significantly from ride, how the meme trade is holding up that's ahead and we have a look at how the dow finished up today, down 260. well off the session lows as you well off the session lows as you can se only from fidelity. ♪♪e that. it started with an idea... and became a new tradition. ♪♪ this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there as you plan, protect and retire. this is lincoln financial.

meme stocks being hit hard over the last month, but a few of the key so called reddit trades managed to see some gains amid today's broader selloff kristina partsinevelos here with more >> that's right so many must be playing the meme game because companies like you mentioned, amc, gamestop, blackberry, countered to the market today. we have seen these clocks climb when we see a buy the dip market, especially when crypto tracks lower there would be short seller coverage contributing to the meme stocks. if we look at the week to date, that's a different story here are some of the biggest meme lose e, clover health, meta

material down double digits. amcclimbed higher because of today's up tick. other memes not so hot, tillray, and let's throw tesla. it wasn't in the mix but it was lower. big picture, thoughs that's what i want to focus on these stocks are still winners amc up more than 2,000% year to date gamestop up more than 900% year to date, so many reddit traders don't plan to sell or at least that's what they're saying online when they have the #apesnotleaving trending >> for sure, and as you rightly say, putting it in the context of year to date puts the 7 or 8% moves on a daily or weekly perspective. what's the latest on amc ceo adam aaronsight, more pronounced engagement with the shareholders and the response that's getting from the reddit forums.

>> a lot of people are saying that's a silly move not to go forward and issue the shares right now, you can get the shares out there, buy it back at $10 a share at a time. especially because they're recording so much debt, they haven't paid their lease on a lot of things. this is the ceo saying he's courting the retail crowd and they feel like this is a major win for them, and it is. when have we ever seen that happen >> well, i guess most companies would say they engage with shareholders it's a slightly different approach, certainly, but thank you very much. >> not when you're taking the online world thank you. >> it's a different way of doing it there's no doubt about it. kristina partsinevelos, mike, in terms of final thoughts, you know, down .75% or so on the dow well off the lows, and as you pointed to earlier, particularly the russell bounced and jumped around. >> yeah, the russell, i mean, point to point, intraday was up 1% when it opened. we'll see if that matters.

it is a consistent under performer. we had seven straight days of s&p going up we've had five straight quarters of the market being up if all of these measures of, okay, we might be a little bit over extended and that's not to say it has to go down from there or the market has to flatten out. but it's perfectly right to do so when you get the right set of conditions, which would be, this rally in bonds, as much as people are confused about it, i think in february when we got up to 1.3% where we are right now in the ten-year yield, people said we're pricing in better growth up from 1/2 a percent people are a little bit turned around by just how much we overshot through the up side, and now it fits in with a story of decelerating growth. if you see the goods purchases in aggregate in the gdp data relative to trend, it's off the charts almost. it just sort of shows you, we're digesting and not necessarily bracing for true outright weakness, it's more about summer softening of a lot of inputs.

>> when we're talking about trading activity, it's a four day holiday week tomorrow is friday, what has volume been looking like because of the shortened weekend. >> it always happens when you get a pull back, volume pickup one benchmark is the volume in the spy or s&p 500 index fund because on slow days, grinding higher, it's nothing, and right now, today actually you did have significant volume in there, so i think that usually it's volume follows volatility, not the other way around, but again, we haven't had a trend change, it's much more about sort of the push/pull below the surface of the market, finally catching up with the indexes. >> today we did get a bit of a lift once europe closed. we'll see if they followed suit and bounce a little bit today. also the dollar, interesting of late, has been strong, while yields have been falling yields continue to fall today, but dollars weakened. >> dollar index kind of pumping up against a level where maybe it needs news of fresh fed

tightening gestures to maybe get a little bit further it has been a little bit of an upside down situation where yields getting depressed, dollar going up i don't think it's the dog it seems to me the tail at this point in terms of really fitting in with the overall market moves, but yeah, hitting a little resistance. >> that does it for us today on closing bell thank you very much for watching "fast money" starts now. >> i'm melissa lee, and guy adami, breaking down the pull back with morgan stanley's chief strategist mike wilson he has been calling for a selloff, we'll get his take on today's draw and what happens next and baba down 10% in a week. one of our traders has longed this name, why they are hunkering down for the long hall, and twitter taking a tumble, the stock down 3