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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  July 9, 2021 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT

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we can't tease who they are yet. i'm off on monday. good luck. >> a good game on sunday night, may the best team win. thank you for filling in this week tonight, time is cooking, apple is soaring and they say break out the record caps. we will break down the starts straight ahead what it is, who it is, and why this weekend could be crate kal for the trade, then gearing up for earning. it is enough to make you say no
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longs. the four stocks to keep on your radar. welcome, everyone. i'm brian sullivan in for melissa tonight. let's get right to it, everybody. apparently all of the economic and covid variant variants have vanished today it was a nice friday to end the week take the family to sizzler because all three major indexes are setting records at the close. the dow jumped nearly 450 points that move was enough to push it positive all of this coming as bond yields broke an eight-day losing
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streak so dan, we'll start with you, was yesterday just a money flow related anomaly? or maybe today was the od day in and out a overall down trend >> i think it had a lot to do with that reversal and bond yields i know a lot of stock investors were keeping a close eye on that yield. it was a heck of a call when it was near the high. it seems like the whole investment community was playing for higher yields and it didn't happen, but the stoke didn't really seem to air usually you think that is good scenario, but it was really just a referendum on future growth expectations. that was the level that skarter had been looking for in a lot of other strategists on the other
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side of the consensus. so i think it is just a really really difficult set up. bank earnings starting next week they are up 16% on the year. >> good call by the way. what was the reversal. what are you seeing? >> love right out of the gate, thank you, dan he could have said you also had the following ten duds, is it a slow down in the economictivity? nobody knows what we do know is that this sell off and rally in bonds is way outside of the consensus does the market have a lot of
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room to run? we also know there is a breath issue. we consider that while yes, the s&p and the dow, but the s&p mid cap has not made a high in almost two months. the russell 2,000 almost four months so you do need some of the other indices that speak to smaller mid-cap names to come to life to support or verify or what other word you might like, the strength in the s&p, but the top five stocks in the s&p are 25% it's a one-way train with the super cap names. >> let's talk about yields and markets. this morning on "worldwide exchange." 5:00 a.m. eastern by the way we heard a out of consensus yield. we thought maybe he was off of his rocker
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it's not that things are bad, but snurnz companies need yield. they need revenue and income japan, maybe even china. certain parts of the global economy are scared or maybe as bad as real returns are. >> for us it is really about the macro data the growth of gdp across the world in most of the markets will slightly decelerate it is the relative level that is deaccelerating so we saw that the bonds were going to rally yesterday so i, i told my long-term treasury thinking okay, they
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were over old. it is going to trade in a range, and the range is about 1.25 for the yield and that is where we're going to be playing it the fight is always about is this permanent or temporary. i think with the energy being up so high and with residential real estate, those are two critical components. so it doesn't let us go through that 1% number but it will stay in a range and you will bounce around in that rain for awhile and you have to trade it i'm not sure what they're saying around it. is it flashing a red light, is it saying something outside of the equity markets and giving the all clear to continue to buy big tech
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>> we have seen what the market told us. they want higher yields. the yields go higher today, and the equity market went higher. why did we have it the yields come down and the equity marks came down enough where we might start getting more speak outside of the reserves so because of the broader market they pull away the punch bowl or whatever but when you start to see someone like china, their credit impulse comes back and they feeds into the rest of the markets. maybe the worst is past us and now we have to start anticipating an up turn.
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>> good discussion there on the macro. let's get a little more micro now. apple kind of quietly, a big part of this run shares of apple are at 14% in justa month and they're hittin a new all-time high today. this record run, a new record run in what has been a series of records may just be getting started. carter, what are you seeing that is so bullish in the apple chart. >> think about what you said it made a record high today. that in and of itself was a data point that is a stock in a steady up trend but this is a different situation. looking at a few charts here in a second but it has been mired.
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a preview of coming attractions. they were in the same situation that broke out so let's do that i have first, adobe. and they are coming off of a pandemic low and they are crushing the pandemic and it rests. and then it broke out. right now we're 13% above the breakout level take a look at the next chart. this is the same chart a different business but the circumstances is the same. a great run off of the low that crushes the market gets ahead of itself, and rests in that tight, tight consolidation. it is up 6% versus adobe 13. apple is the same chart, and the point is you're not looking at what the business does, what they say, i don't do any of that it's not to say that one
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shouldn't. you can, but it's not what i do. this set up is identical to adobe and amazon if is high. the 25th of january, 125 spot 09 today it was 125 spot 11. >> maybe some more love for carter with all due respect to adobe, interesting story it doesn't matter over all. it is hard to see how the market itself goes up a few different sectors and it has lots to do over the last six months or so about rates, right? and where we have seen money going into
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and the money is flowing into cyclicals again. carter is right on this trade. right now look at invidia. it broke out in early june to a new all-time high. that stock is up 22% that is half a trillion dollar market cap stock so the point that i'm trying to make here is that he is right on amazon i don't like the set up. if they continue to run into their q 2 prints it's a really hard hold if you have a run away breakout into those reports. i go back to late april and early may where they reported q 1 earnings and they all traded poorly so i think there is a lot of heavy lifting they can do for the broad market here but be careful into earnings. >> so quickly, dan, this is, you think, the run the earnings optimism early?
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>> a little bit. i think the technicals have a lot to do with it. when you think about google, facebook, and microsoft, and carter made a great call to say sell those to fund the purchase of apple and amazon, they're all up 25%, 28%, and 43% so those stocks are under performing and they could definitely play some catch up, i agree with carter. >> what do you think apple, amazon, breaking out more than the other >> i agree with carter they are the same trade, right because they are "big tech" and they fall under that umbrella, you can then think about it as if we are in a slower growth period than we have been then this is the place you want to be they usually have ideosympathic
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growth if i had a pick of the two here, i would probably go amazon just because there may be a catalyst here with the new ceo. >> i feel like we need a toe truck trade, right if you had a pick one of the a's, what do you favor >> i think you can have a whole basket people are paying up for protection that is pretty high it is kind of all of the same trade. i don't think you have to dump microsoft or google. i think tech has room to run but as we talked about a second ago you have to be careful into earnings once you get over your skis on some of these names you have to be careful the volatility starts going down and any one thing can make these
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stocks go down again. >> dan said be careful because this might be a run up into earnings speaking of earnings, get ready for next week. if the numbers scare you, don't sweat it we're going to name names. not many, but the ones that really matter. plus, maybe, a make or break moment for bitcoin this weekend could be a critical moment for the citizrypto trade. hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this... your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee... yeah i should've just led with that... with at&t business...
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and welcome back to a friday "fast money. ready or not here come earnings. check out all of the big names resporting next week i want you to read them all carefully. it is a great time to hit trade it or fade it. we're going to break down the four key names that you need to watch. everybody ready? i think so let's start with goldman sachs up 3% in 12 months off recent highing in june,
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nadine trade or fade it? >> i'm going to trade it i any you can trade if from 355 to 359 investment banking has been good this year. to it's really going to come down to the strategic initiatives. whether or not it is renew able trading. i liked it more yesterday but i think you can trade it for next week >> dan >> yeah, i think you fade this one here, brian. listen, that is plenty of great points yesterday it was bad it looked at the low end of her range and i don't think you want to be long it below that it's up 100% from october lows this is the most front-end loaded year that this company will ever have many of the banks, as investors get comfortable with
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deceleration or the valuation, but i think the back half of the year will be far more challenging than some of the periods we have seen in the last year for goldman sachs, so i'm not a buyer here >> one trade one fade, that's what it is all about let's go to united health. it's one of the better stocks in the dow this year. higher than average, 41.5% gain. do you trade it or do you fade the unh? >> yeah, you know, everything you just mentioned is really good but that is why i want to fade it here. this is not about what the company will do or what i think it will be it is about trade location why do u get into a trade, they
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take them off of the table going into the trade, so guess what if i'm wrong about it i can buy the all-time high breakout in terms of risk-reward it's better to fade it than to trade it or buy it into earnings >> okay, carter, what do you think on united health >> those are all very accurate points the bk said as a technique you can wait for a high. i'm in the trade it category this is one of the steadiest equities on the field. in the last 25 years it matched microsoft, literally, month for month. >> is that a stall or is that a dip correction drawn out in response to the steep proceeding move of the sort of march-june period that's what i think it is, i
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like it. >> okay, one trade, one fade so far. let's go to delta airlines one of the ultimate ownershiping trades, and that is only including domestic travel. delta down do you fade it now because everyone made all of the money before air travel kicked back in? >> no, i think you trade it here the stock is down about 17% from recent highs it had a nice bounce from a technical perspective at the may breakout or so i think if you see momentum following through into next week and again you might have an earning. despite the fact that they're at all-time highs i think in the transports these
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guys are very tied to that yield trade, to that delta variant trade. i think delta has room to run to the high 40s in the next week or so >> the delta delta nadine, what do you think. >> dan had a good point with the runway i'm going to fade it i'm looking at 41.5 to 44.6. it is kind of a fair fight but i don't like that the cfo starts in july and who doesn't like a good reset if you're coming in from ge to say okay, this is what we're going to do we have a plan but i'm going to reset the bar lower. i'd be a little careful going into earnings knowing that fuel costs are up, labor costs are up, i don't like that set up so i fade it for now >> we made a market in all three stocks in trade it or fade it. a lot of great points. thank you very much. let's move on. coming up after the break, your chart of the week.
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and why dan says this chart, that one right there, should be keeping old bk up at night what that chart is and why they is a it. fast money returns this is cynthia suarez, cfo of go-go foodco., an online food delivery service.
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all right, welcome back to "fast money. it is time for your chart of the week it's bitcoin what else. bk, what is your take on this week's pull back for bitcoin or the other cryptos? >> when i look, it really has become a macro asset i mean that it is responding to
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the macro news we saw bond yeeds reverse yesterday afternoon and today you saw it perk up to me if you're looking for an asset that will hedge pro cyclical, bit coin is the place to be. that being said i think the rest of the krypto market is trading on it's own growth chart that is something new that we're just starting to see >> that is making sense. that chart is so heavy it feels like it wants to test that 30,000 as well. that will be a true test, the third or fourth time in just the last month and a half or so. i this it is heavy and it breaks lower there.
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>> good conversation on bit count. let's go now to final trade and go around the horn with carter to kick it off >> apple for a breakout. >> apple for the breakout. nadine >> volkswagon. they just preannounced results better than all of 2020. >> delta >> all rht, n'igdot go anywhere. options actions is next. we'll see you there.
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it is friday and that mean it's is time for "options action." here is what is ahead. >> earnings season begins next week with institutions that could foretell the state of our economy. but they're not the banks you may be thinking of it carter worth explains then, could the summer travel season officially under way, a covid variant gaining steam, we're assessing the best

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